Upload
adbwaterforall
View
215
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 1/39
Challenges for Water Management in
Asia
Colin Chartres
Director General
International Water Management Institute
The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy ofthe data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 2/39
Contents
• Drivers of the food crisis in Asia
• Do we have enough water to produce therequired food?• What impact will climate change have on
Asian water resources and foodproduction?• What are the adaptive management
strategies that we need to develop toovercome water and food crises?
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 3/39
The extent of rural poverty in Asia
Source: World Development Report, 2008
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 4/39
How can raising agriculturalproductivity help?
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 5/39
What can we conclude from the currentstate of agricultural development?
• Still very large numbers of rural poor
particularly in southern Asia• They can be helped as can GDP by
targeted public investment – currently thisis relatively low in the agricultural countries
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 6/39
50
100
150
200
250
2000M 1 2001M 1 2002M 1 2003M 1 2004M 1 2005M 1 2006M 1 2007M 1 2008
Nominal US dollars
Real, i.e. relative to developing countries’ CPI
Source: World Bank, DECPG
International food price indices, 2000=100
Food Prices
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 7/39
What is causing the world food crisis?
• Income growth and dietary change, climatechange, high energy prices, globalization and
urbanization are transforming food consumption,production and markets (von Braun (2008)
• Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply
shocks at a time of surging demand for feed,food and fuel have lead to drastic priceincreases
• Biofuel production has further impacted thesituation and disproportionately affects the poorthrough price level and volatility effects
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 8/39
Drivers of water demand
What are the driving forces?
• Growing population (6.5 b now to c.9b in 2050)
• Dietary change
• Urbanization
• Biofuel production
• Need for environmental water
• Climate change
i.e. similar to the food crisis
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 9/39
Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 10/39
Most hungry and poor people live where waterchallenges pose a constraint to food
production
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 11/39
Impact of water scarcity in Asia
0
200
400
600800
1000
1200
1400
O E C D
L A
C
M E N
A
S - S a h a r
a n A f r i c
a
E . E u r o p
e , C e n t .
A s i a
E . A s i a P a
c i f i c
S o
u t h
A s i a
m i l l i o n
s
People living in areas ofeconomic water
scarcity
People living in areas of
approaching waterscarcity
People living in areas of
absolute water scarcity
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 12/39
URBANIZATION
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 13/39
URBANIZATION
• Increased demand for water for cities
• Reallocation from irrigation to cities• Cities generate more wastewater – an important
source of agricultural supplies
• Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond todifferent demands
• Voting clout shifts – rural to urban• Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 14/39
Meat
China
India
Milk
China
India USA
USA
Income and Dietary Change 1961-2000
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 15/39
Income and Dietary Change 1961-2000
Vegetables
China
India
USA
Cereals (food)
China
India
USA
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 16/39
Water for Biofuels
liters of ET Liters of Irrigationwater
China 3800 2500
India 4100 3500
US 1750 300
Brazil 2250 200
Water use per liter of biofuel production
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 17/39
Climate Change - Projected degradationof glaciers by 2050 (Central Asia)
cited in Perelet (2007) Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change.http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/papers/perelet_renat.pdf
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 18/39
Climate Change - Projected degradationof glaciers by 2050 (Central Asia)
• From the 1950s to the 1990s, the Pamir-Alai glaciers lost19 % of their ice, with the process now gaining inintensity.
• For several decades, the area of glaciers in differentregions of Tien Shan, Gissaro-Alai, Pamirs andDzhungarskiy and Zailiyskiy Alatau has decreased at theaverage rate of about 1 % year. According to some
model predictions, the availability of water in Syr Daryamay decrease by up to 30 % and in Amu Darya by up to40 %.
• Some other models do not predict such dramatic
declines, but no scenario shows an increase in waterflow; in all models, the demand for water grows fasterthan the natural supply.
Perelet (2007) Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change.
http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/papers/perelet_renat.pdf
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 19/39
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 9 1 1
1 9 1 7
1 9 2 3
1 9 2 9
1 9 3 5
1 9 4 1
1 9 4 7
1 9 5 3
1 9 5 9
1 9 6 5
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 7
1 9 8 3
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 4
T o
t a l a n n u a l i n
f l o w
( G L )
Annual inflow
1911–1974 (338 GL) 1975–1996 (177 GL) 1997–2004 (115 GL)
Source: WA Water Corporation.
Climate Change: a big uncertaintyInflows into Perth’s Storages
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 20/39
Climate Change issues – Ovens Valley,Victoria Australia
For recent climate and current development
• The average annualrainfall and runoffover the past ten
years (1997 to 2006)are 11 percent and26 percent lower
respectively than thelong-term averagevalues.
Temperature
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 21/39
% of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes
No water scarcityApproaching
water
scarcity
Water scarce
0% 60% 75% 100%
Water for food and feed today
Future water for food,
CA scenario
Water for biofuels*
*Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030
India today and in 2030 (WaterSimanalysis by IWMI).
Biofuels: a Green solution with blue impacts?
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 22/39
Open Closed
Exploiting waterresources
Managing Demand
New allocations Reallocating water
Who is included andexcluded
Safeguarding right towater
Developing groundwater Regulating groundwater
Informal, formal
institutions
Informal & Formal
institutionsWithin system conflicts Cross sectoral conflicts
What happens as water suppliesdiminish?
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 23/39
Change in River Discharge (BCM)
6.8
10
3417.323.54.8
3.2
6.7
26.412.613.4
4.8
1971-74 1996-2001
Upper Krishna use increased by 5.3 bcm (17.3 – 12.6)
Lower Krishna by 3.5 bcm (15-9.5 bcm)
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 24/39
Will there be enough water to grow
food and produce biofuels?
No,unless ….
We change the way we think andact on water issues.
KEY QUESTION
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 25/39
How much more cereal will we have togrow?
Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of dietand population
Water Needs (ET) will double – w ithout water productivity
gains
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 26/39
Significant need for more irrigated grainproduction in Asia
Grain production in 2000
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
SSA South Asia East asia OECD
g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n i n m i l l i o n t o n s
rainfed
irrigated
Grain production projected
for 2050 according to CA scenario
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
SSA South Asia East asia OECD
g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n i n m i l l i o n t o n
rainfed
irrigated
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 27/39
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
Crop water consumption to 2050
Today
Without productivity improvement
Without Water Productivity Gains,crop consumption doubles
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 28/39
Land and water use today - South Asia
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
without productivity
improvement
CA
irrigation
rainfed
today
Source: IWMI analysis done for the CA using the Watersim model, 2007
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 29/39
Land and water use today - East Asia
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
without productivity
improvement
CA
irrigation
rainfed
today
Source: IWMI analysis done for the CA using the Watersim model, 2007
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 30/39
SOLUTIONS
Physical
• Improved hydrologicaldata to inform decisionmaking
• Increased water storage(not just large dams)
• Improved waterproductivity
• Increasing reuse ofwastewater• Multiple objective water
management for large
storages
Institutional
• Paid environmentalservices to minimisedegradation and increaseproductivity
• Better policies,governance, institutionalframeworks, regulation ofwater
• Improved capacity forfarmers and farmergroups
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 31/39
Major room for improvement inirrigation productivity
Figure 4: Standardised Gross Value of Production pe r unit water consu med by ETcrop
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
U S d o l l a r p
e r m
3
* surface water and public wells ** pr ivate wells
Source: Sakthivadivel et al, 1999
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 32/39
Public, but not private investment inirrigation has declined
Irrigated Area
Food price index
World Bank lending forirrigation
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species
Groundwater sustainability an
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 33/39
Groundwater sustainability – anagricultural time-bomb
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 34/39
Source: Döll, P., Lehner, B., Kaspar, F. (2002): Global modeling of groundwaterrecharge. In Schmitz, G.H. (ed.): Proceedings of Third InternationalConference on Water Resources and the Environment Research, TechnicalUniversity of Dresden, Germany, ISBN 3-934253-17-2, Vol. I, 27-31
Long-term averagegroundwater recharge
GW use increases whenresource endowments deplete
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 35/39
Sustainable Extraction
• Groundwater recharge ponds in Gujarat
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 36/39
Improving Water Institutions
T. Shah (2007) in Community-Based Water Law and Water Resource Management Reform in DevelopingCountries. CABI
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 37/39
Source: IWMI’s WaterSim analysis for the CA
Take action to deal with the watercrisis
Today
CA Scenario
Practices like today
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgradingrainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 38/39
An Action Agenda
• There are technical and social solutions, but they need putting into practice• This requires:
– Political leadership and goodwill; water for food has to be high on the political
agenda leading to better policies – Institutional goodwill at regional and local level; we can’t continue business as
usual, reforms are needed – Filling scientific knowledge gaps; regional and local studies on impact of
changing water availability and its impact on agriculture and livelihoods – More scientific innovation in the area of irrigated and rainfed productivity
improvement e.g improved varieties, better water management, pest and disease control)
– CSOs and NGOs understanding where they can contribute; focus on capacity building and knowledge transfer so that R4D really works
– Financing and investment from international development institutions; water as
well as food need to be on the planning agenda for future expenditure – Ensuring knowledge is promulgated; building on the knowledge hub concept – Enhanced capacity building across entire agriculture-water sectors with a focus
on farmer driven organizations that have business acumen
8/6/2019 World Water Week - Asia Day - Presentation CChartres
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/world-water-week-asia-day-presentation-cchartres 39/39
CONCLUSIONS
• Asia has a big task ahead to ensure food
security• Water resources will be limiting
• Productivity increases will be essential ifwe are to feed the increasing numbers ofpeople in the region