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World Real GDP Growth. IMF, January 2013. NCC Acreage Survey. Distributed on Dec 18 Responses collected through Jan 23 Asked for acres of upland cotton, ELS cotton, corn, soybeans, wheat, Other crops in ‘12 and intentions for ’13; also asked price expectations. Pre-Planting Market Signals . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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World Real GDP Growth
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%Actual Estimate
IMF, January 2013
NCC Acreage Survey
• Distributed on Dec 18• Responses collected through Jan 23• Asked for acres of upland cotton, ELS cotton,
corn, soybeans, wheat, Other crops in ‘12 and intentions for ’13; also asked price expectations
Pre-Planting Market Signals Cotton Corn Soybeans Cot/Corn Cot/Soy
2013 78.96¢ $5.92 $12.94 13.3 6.1
2012 92.08¢ $5.65 $12.59 16.3 7.3
2011 118.08¢ $5.88 $13.31 20.1 8.9
2010 73.70¢ $4.04 $9.37 18.3 7.9
2009 51.65¢ $4.17 $8.98 12.4 5.8
2008 80.72¢ $5.36 $12.73 15.0 6.3
U.S. Cotton Area & Prices
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
3
6
9
12
15
18
0
6
12
18
24Million Acres
Acres Cotton/Corn Cotton/Soy
Price Ratio
2013 Southeast Acreage2012 Actual
2013Intended
%Change
Alabama 380 320 -15.7Florida 108 103 -4.5Georgia 1,290 1,093 -15.3North Carolina 585 398 -32.0South Carolina 299 265 -11.4Virginia 86 62 -28.3Southeast 2,748 2,241 -18.5
Total may not add due to rounding.
2013 Mid-South Acreage2012 Actual
2013Intended
%Change
Arkansas 595 221 -62.9Louisiana 230 144 -37.3Mississippi 475 199 -58.1Missouri 350 239 -31.6Tennessee 380 199 -47.6Mid-South 2,030 1,003 -50.6
Total may not add due to rounding.
Arkansas Crop Returns
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400Difference Between Corn and Cotton Returns
$ per Acre
2013 Southwest Acreage
2012 Actual
2013Intended
%Change
Kansas 56 50 -10.4Oklahoma 305 267 -12.3Texas 6,550 4,910 -25.0Southwest 6,911 5,228 -24.4
Total may not add due to rounding.
2013 West Acreage
2012 Actual
2013Intended
%Change
Arizona 200 193 -3.6California 142 112 -21.4New Mexico 46 36 -21.0West 388 341 -12.2
Total may not add due to rounding.
2013 ELS Acreage
2012 Actual
2013Intended
%Change
Arizona 3 3 -16.0California 225 190 -15.6New Mexico 2 2 -26.0Texas 8 8 3.9ALL ELS 238 203 -15.0
Total may not add due to rounding.
12/1812/21
12/2412/27
12/30 1/2 1/5 1/81/11
1/141/17
1/201/23
1/261/29 2/1 2/4 2/7
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%Cotton Corn Soybeans
% Changes in Futures Prices
U.S. Cotton Production
07 05 04 98 00 118
10
12
14
16
18Million Bales
13.30
12.86
U.S. Balance Sheet
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Change
Production 18.10 15.57 17.01 12.86 -4.15
Mill Use 3.90 3.30 3.43
Exports 14.38 11.71 12.20
Stocks 2.60 3.35 4.77
Stocks/Use 14% 23% 31%
Million Bales
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1330%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
Cotton’s Share of U.S. NDC
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 131.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50Ratio of Cotton to MMF
Apparel Import Per-Unit Values
Net Domestic Fiber Consumption
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Million Bale Equivalents
Cotton Other
U.S. Balance Sheet
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Change
Production 18.10 15.57 17.01 12.86 -4.15
Mill Use 3.90 3.30 3.43 3.48 0.05
Exports 14.38 11.71 12.20
Stocks 2.60 3.35 4.77
Stocks/Use 14% 23% 31%
Million Bales
Int’l Area (Excluding China)
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1350
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80Million Acres
Acres A Index (t-1)
A Index ($/Lb)
Int’l Mill Use (Excluding China)
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
61.867.2
71.0
Million Bales
07 08 09 10 11 12 130
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pakistan India
Cents per Lb
Yarn Export Values – Cotton Price
08 09 10 11 12 130
50
100
150
200
250China Cotton Price
China Polyester
A Index
Cents per Lb
Fiber Prices
07 08 09 10 11 12 130
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pakistan India China
Cents per Lb
Yarn Export Values – Cotton Price
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Thousand Bales
China Cotton Yarn Imports
China Cotton Use
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
10
20
30
40
50
60
50.0
35.5 34.3
Million Bales
Mill Use Yarn Imports
China’s Reserves: The Big Unknown
12/13 13/14 ChangeMill Use 35.5 34.3 -1.2
Production 33.5 30.7 -2.8
Gov’t Purchases 28.5 26.1 -2.4
Gov’t Sales 16.1 21.0 4.9
Stocks 40.6 43.8 3.2
Gov’t Reserves 33.8 38.8 5.0
Imports 12.5 6.9 -5.6
Million Bales
World Cotton Trade
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
38.935.9
Million Bales
US Exports Imports
U.S. Balance Sheet
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Change
Production 18.10 15.57 17.01 12.86 -4.15
Mill Use 3.90 3.30 3.43 3.48 0.05
Exports 14.38 11.71 12.20 10.61 -1.59
Stocks 2.60 3.35 4.77 3.55 -1.23
Stocks/Use 14% 23% 31% 25%
Million Bales
World Balance Sheet
11/12 12/13 13/14 Change
Production 124.1 118.8 110.1 -8.7
Mill Use 103.1 106.1 108.7 2.6
Trade 44.7 38.9 35.9 -3.0
Stocks 68.9 81.7 83.1 1.4
China Reserves 21.4 33.8 38.8 5.0
Other Stocks 47.5 47.9 44.3 -3.6
Million Bales
Cotton Trade Balance
Production less Use Outside China
China Imports Difference
2010/11 17.8 12.0 5.8
2011/12 25.9 24.5 1.4
2012/13 14.7 12.5 2.2
2013/14 4.9 6.9 -2.0
Buy & Sell 4.9 4.1 0.8
Buy & Hold 4.9 11.0 -6.1
Million Bales
Summary Points
• Resistance breaking out of recent price range– China reserves a key factor– Sustaining demand
• Smaller U.S. acreage & production in ‘13– Remember: $6 corn & $13 soybeans resulted from
severe drought; markets could change quickly– ‘14 could look much different
Questions Going Forward
Growth in China Fiber Mill Use?
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 170
50
100
150
200
250Million Bales
Cotton Manmade Fiber
China’s5-Year Plan
Shifts in Cotton Mill Use?
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 170
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Million Bales
China Rest of World
Markets for U.S. Cotton?
1998-02 2003-07 2008-12 2013-170%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
U.S. Mills
China
Others
Turkey
Mexico
