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INICIATIVES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR WITH GHG EMISSION REDUCTION AS CO-BENEFIT: ANALYSIS OF FUEL EFFICIENCY,ETHANOL USE IN FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES AND THE BIODIESEL PROGRAM IN BRAZIL. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Workshop on “Integrated development and climate policies: How to realize benefits at national and
international level?”
Suzana Kahn RibeiroPROFESSOR
Engineering Transport ProgrammeFederal University of Rio de Janeiro- Brazil
20-22 September 2006Paris
INICIATIVES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR WITH GHG INICIATIVES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR WITH GHG EMISSION REDUCTION AS CO-BENEFIT: ANALYSIS OF EMISSION REDUCTION AS CO-BENEFIT: ANALYSIS OF
FUEL EFFICIENCY,ETHANOL USE IN FLEX-FUEL FUEL EFFICIENCY,ETHANOL USE IN FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES AND THE BIODIESEL PROGRAM IN BRAZILVEHICLES AND THE BIODIESEL PROGRAM IN BRAZIL
World Oil Consumption per Sector
1973
Transport
42%
Industry27%
Non Energy Use
6%
Other Sectors25%
2004
Industry10%
Non Energy Use
17%
Transport
58%
Other Sectors15%
42% 58%
+16%
TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCETRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE
(IEA, 2006)
TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCETRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE
• WORLD OIL BY-PRODUCTS - 2004– 43% of total energy final consumption = 3.2 Gtep;– 40% CO2 emissions = 10.6 Gt;– Transport sector consumption : 58% = 1.9 Gtep.
• Oil BY-PRODUCTS IN BRAZIL - 2004– 40% of total energy final consumption = 71 Mtep;– Transport sector consumption: 61% = 43 Mtep.
22%
26%52%
Diesel Gasolina Outros
96,7% Road99,7% Road
(IEA,2006)
(MME,2005)
TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCETRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE
Transport Energy by Region
(WBSD,2004)
TRANSPORT RELATED PROBLEMSTRANSPORT RELATED PROBLEMS
• Oil dependency;• Congestion;• Poor air quality in urban centers.
Solutions to these problems rely on:
• Policies towards higher energy efficiency in transport as well as transport sector efficiency;
• Transport policy towards energy matrix diversification.
Leading to a CO2 emission reduction as co-benefit.
Fuel Efficiency Increase
• In the case of new light vehicles : Vehicle Labelling Program;• In the case of light vehicle in use: Inspection/ Maintenance Program;• In case of heavy duty vehicles: Inspection/ Maintenance Program.
Oil Dependency Reduction
• Increase in Hydrous Ethanol (sugar cane) consumption: Flex-Fuel technology;
• Biodiesel (soybean) in heavy duty vehicles: National Biodiesel Program.
ANALYZED INITIATIVESANALYZED INITIATIVES
Fuel Efficiency Transport Sector
Economic Social EnvironmentalStrategic
DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES
Vehicle Labelling
Economic Social Environmental
Gasoline and ethanol
consumption reduction
Urban air quality improvement
Health improvemnt
DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES
Inspection & MaintenancePrograms for Light Vehicles in Use
Economic Social Environmental
Gasoline and ethanol
consumption reduction
Urban air quality improvement
Health improvement
DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES
Inspection & MaintenancePrograms for Heavy Vehicles in Use
Economic Social EnvironmentalStrategic
Diesel oil consumption reduction;
Maintenance cost reduction.
Urban air quality improvement
Health improvement
Imported oil dependency reduction
DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES
Flex Fuel Technology
Economic Social Environmental
Enhance Agribusiness;Reduce gasoline
consumption;Promote sustainable
regional development;
Renewable FuelJob Generation
DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES
Biodiesel National Programme
Economic Social EnvironmentalStrategic
Urban air quality improvement
Health improvement
Energy matrix diversification
Job GenerationEnhance Agribusiness;Reduce imported diesel
dependency Promote sustainable regional development;
DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES
Obtained Results Obtained Results Fuel Efficiency Increase Fuel Efficiency Increase
Labelling Programe
Assumptions:•Vehicle labelling system proposed for the EU by the European Community Commission;•Light vehicles (gasoline) in São Paulo municipality;•Assessment period : 2000 to 2004.
Results:•Consumption of 141 million litres of gasoline could have been avoided.
Co-benefit:•Emission of 311M tons of CO2 could have been avoided.
Obtained ResultsObtained ResultsFuel Efficiency Increase Fuel Efficiency Increase
Considered Data:• Assessment period : 2002;• Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area; •1.616.273 Light Vehicles.
Results:•Avoided Emissions: 56,000 – 124,000 ton CO;•Avoided Gasoline : 73 -126 M liters;
Co-benefit:•Avoided Emissions : 0.207 – 0.354 M tons of CO2.
Inspection/ Maintenance Program – Light Vehicles
(Petrobras, 2006)
Obtained ResultsObtained ResultsFuel Efficiency Increase Fuel Efficiency Increase
Considered data:•Assessment period : 1996 – 2002 and 2003 -2005 •Buses and trucks (130,000 vehicles in 1996-2003)•22 states in Brazil;
Results:•1996-2003: 300 M liters/year of diesel and 18,000 ton/year of PM avoided;• 2003-2005: 321 M liters/year of diesel and 19,200 ton/year of PM avoided;
Co-benefit:•Avoided Emissions in 1996-2003: 0.80 M tons of CO2/year ;•Avoided Emissions in 2003-2005: 0.86 M tons of CO2/year.
Inspection/ Maintenance Program – Heavy Vehicles
(Petrobras, 2006)
Obtained Results Obtained Results Oil Dependency ReductionOil Dependency Reduction
Flex-Fuel Technology
Assumptions:•Assessment period : 2003 to 2006;•Light vehicles in South East and South Region;
Results:• Avoided Gasoline: 8.3 – 9.9 Billion liters.
Co-benefit:•Avoided Emission: 23 - 27 M tons of CO2.
Obtained Results Obtained Results Oil Dependency ReductionOil Dependency Reduction
National Biodiesel Program
Assumptions:•Assessment period : 2005 to 2006;•Brazilian fleet fueled by mineral diesel consumes the mixture B2 of biodiesel from soybean and uses methanol in the chemical process.
Results:• Avoided Diesel: 1.2 Million liters.
Co-benefit:•Avoided Emission: 1.3 Mtons of CO2
ADVANTAGES OF THE FLEX FUEL CAR ADVANTAGES OF THE FLEX FUEL CAR
Fuel supply flexibility ( price and availability )
Smaller cost when provisioning with alcohol
Flexibility of provisioning (price and readiness)
Consumption will depend on:
cost difference between gasoline and alcohol
autonomy need
Flex-Fuel TechnologyFlex-Fuel Technology
Share of Flex Fuel sales Share of Flex Fuel sales
(ANFAVEA, 2006)
3.7%
21.6%
50.2%
74.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2003 2004 2005 July 2006
48,178
328,379
812,104
1,525,943
Flex-Fuel TechnologyFlex-Fuel Technology
Brazilian National Biodiesel ProgramBrazilian National Biodiesel Program
BiodieselBiodiesel
Regulatory Mark
for Biodiesel
Law 11.097/05
Jan/2005 Jan/2008 Jan/2013
Obligatory Obligatory MixtureMixture
AuthorizeAuthorized Mixtured Mixture++
AuthorizeAuthorized Mixtured Mixture
Obligatory Obligatory MixtureMixture
Time needed to organize the
productive chain
regulates the market
consolidates the market
B2B2 B2B2 UP TO B5UP TO B5 B5B5
Phase 1 Phase2 Phase3
LAW 11.097/ 2005: establishes a minimum percentage of biodiesel mixture to the diesel and the penetration rate of biodiesel in the market
800 million of liters/ year 1 billion of liters/ year
2,4 billion of liters/ year
A specific taxation was established
structures the market
(million hectares)
Agriculture..................... 137
Livestock....................... (35)
Permanent crops.......... (10)
Forest............................. (2)
Available Area................90
AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION – AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION – PRESENT SITUATION AND POTENTIAL GROWTHPRESENT SITUATION AND POTENTIAL GROWTH
Area needed to supply biodiesel (B5) 3 million hectares (NAE, 2005);
There are about 90 million hectares available for agricultural expansion regarding different raw materials to produce biofuels, just in the western area.
Brazilian National Biodiesel ProgramBrazilian National Biodiesel Program
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS
It should be noted that the Brazilian initiatives on fuel efficiency and biofuels in the transport sector, meet, without jeopardizing the growing transport activity, their main objectives:
•Oil dependency reduction;• Air quality improvement;• Job generation.
Thus, as a co-benefit the CO2 emission reduction is also obtained.
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
KEY MESSAGEKEY MESSAGE
In order to make transport policies more efficient in terms of CO2 emission reduction it is important to promote the quantification of such emissions together with the diffusion of these results .