World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

www.wmo.int

WMO

2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes

Session 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming.

Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

1. After Tsunami2. Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and

Climate related risks3. Role of HydroMet Services in Disaster Risk

Management– Risk assessment– Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems– Risk Transfer

4. WMO initiatives

AGENDA

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004

• Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCO-IOC)

• 2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA, PTWC)

• WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8 countries All countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minute

• All countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for Tsunami watch

BUT Disaster risk management and emergency preparedness in most countries is still reactive and remain to be addressed

Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

in South and South-East Asia

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90% of events 55% of casualties 84% of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Number of events - 1980-2007South and South East Asia

Earthquake 6%

Epidemic 11%

Extreme Temperatur

11%

Volcano 3%

Wave-Surge1%

Slides 7%

Wild Fires 1%

Flood 37%

Drought 3%

Wind Storm 28%

Casualties - 1980-2007 South and South East Asia

Extreme Temperature

2%

Slides 1%

Wave-Surge37%

Flood 11%

Epidemic 6%

Wind Storm 35%

Earthquake 8%

Economic losses - 1980-2007 South and South East Asia

Drought 3%

Flood 45%

Wild Fires 8%

Wave-Surge9%

Earthquake 7%

Wind Storm 28%

Bangladesh, Buthan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, SriLanka, Thailand, Vietnam

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural

hazards (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses

Africa (RA I)

Asia (RA II)

SSE Asia

South America (RA III)

N-C Am & Carr. (RA IV)

Pacific (RA V)

Europe (RA VI)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Number of disaster events

Hydrometeorological

Geological

Africa (RA I)

Asia (RA II)

SSE Asia



Pacific (RA V)

Europe (RA VI)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Loss of life

Hydrometeorological

Geological

Africa (RA I)

Asia (RA II)

SSE Asia



Pacific (RA V)

Europe (RA VI)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Economic losses (billions US $)

Hydrometeorological

Geological

Climate change impact in South and South East AsiaIPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)

• Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat waves and intense precipitation events

• Increase of 10-20 % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degrees

• Expansion of areas under severe water stress• Increased flooding risks during wet season and

possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the Mekong river

• Sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and India)

• Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)

How WMO’s Research and Operational Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological

Services support Disaster Risk Management

WMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation to ensure development and availability

of meteorological, hydrological and climate services at the national level.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Northern AtlanticOscillation

IPCC AssessmentsUNFCCC

negotiations

WMO has been coordinating International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate

World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme

Operational forecasting

systems

WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National

Meteorological Services

Global Telecommunication System

Global Observing System

National Meteorological

&

Hydrological

Services

Global Data Processing and Forecasting

2

431

Communication and Dissemination of Processed

information

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Government and civil defence

authorities

MediaGeneralpublic

Privatesector

5

Examples:

Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm Watch System

Emergency Response Activities

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting

6

WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme

in Bangladesh

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in

2003 to …

Leverage WMO’s Research and Operational Network and partnerships to support disaster risk reduction at the national level in a more

comprehensive and coordinated manner

Hyogo Framework for Action…… change in paradigm of DRM

• Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries!

• Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management involving investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer ….

Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate

information and services!

Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

2

1

3

WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk Reduction at national and regional level

1. Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks.

2. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems.

3. Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities.

4. Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies.

5. Trained management and staff of Hydromet Services

6. Enhanced ministerial and public awareness


Hazard databases

Hazard statistics



Risk analysis tools






Risk Reduction



Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment

Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment:

– Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata

– Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies

– Forward looking hazard trend analysis• Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts

• Probabilitic climate models

Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of Hazard Data Archives

• Very few countries maintain impact databases

• Data archived are not standardised

• 90 % of NMHS indicated need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO DRR survey)

Nu

mb

er

of

co

un

trie

s t

ha

t a

rch

ive

d

ata

fo

r th

e s

pe

cif

ied

ha

zard

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Strong w

inds

Thunder

storm

or l

ight

ning

Drough

t

Heat w

ave

Flash

floo

d

River

floodin

g

Hails

torm

Dense

fog

Cold w

ave

Heavy

sno

w

Smoke

, Dust

or H

aze

Hazar

ds to

avi

atio

n

Earth

quakes

Coasta

l flo

oding

Tropic

al c

yclo

ne

Forest

or w

ildla

nd fire

Lands

lide o

r mudsl

ide

Freez

ing

rain

Storm

surg

e

Tornad

o

Wate

rborn

e haz

ards

Airborn

e su

bstanc

es

Mar

ine h

azar

ds

Sandst

orm

Avala

nche

Tsuna

mi

Volcan

ic e

vents

Deser

t locu

st s

war

m


Hazard databases

Hazard statistics



Risk analysis tools






Risk Reduction



Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction

Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

4 11 1424

47

88

160

345

103

495

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

decade

0.05

2.66

0.17

1.73

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

decade

While casualties related to

hydro-meteorologic

al disasters are

decreasing

Marine

Health (etc.)…

Geological

Communitiesat risk

hazard warning

National to local governments

Hydrological

Meteorological

NATIONAL SERVICES

post-disaster

response

In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management

hazard

warn

ing

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health (etc.)

COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES

feedback

feedback

Community Preparedness

warnings

National to local governments

supported by DRR plans, legislation

and coordination mechanisms

warnings

feedback

What is an Effective EWS?

warnings

preventiveactions

1

2

3

4

5

5

33

5


Hazard databases

Hazard statistics



Risk analysis tools






Risk Reduction



Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

• Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

• Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis

• Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement

• Forecasts for management of risk portfolio

• Technical support and service delivery

Challenges at different levels

Building, strengthening and sustaining the

meteorological/climate observing networks, data management and forecasting systems are resource intensive and not on the radar screen of many governments!

Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is a “new” field for Meteorological and Hydrological Services!

Addressing these Challenges at different levels

Need to make a business case for the need for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments (e.g., investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk managment and development)

Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of Met Services with a sustainability plan

Raise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots)

Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as Partners

Standardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products

Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets

Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia

Malawi Drought Risk Management

Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project

& Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility

UK Flood CAT Bond

CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility

Pacific Risk Insurance Facility

Indian Agricultural Risk

European Agricultural Risk

Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts

Wind Power Risk Contracts

Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets

Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)

Heating Degree Day Contracts

Key Questions:

1) Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands?

2) How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the DRR planning and implementation to generate demand for their services?

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)

1. National policies and legislation2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in

monitoring, forecasting, communications3. Hazard databases4. Forecasting and Warning Capacities5. Human resources (technical, managerial)6. Operational partnerships with disaster

risk management stakeholders

Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate

24/5254 %

25/3474 %

10/1283 %

18/2282 %

14/1974 %

44/4892 %

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

ScopeNumber of surveys

receivedTotal number of

countries% Response

Global (WMO Members) 139 187 74%

Developing countries 85 137 62%

Least Developed countries 25 50 50%

Africa (RA I) 28 52 54%

Asia (RA II) 25 34 74%

South America (RA III) 10 12 83%

Central and North America (RA IV) 18 22 82%

South-West Pacific (RA V) 14 19 74%

Europe (RA VI) 44 48 92%

Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)

Category

Planning &

Legislation

Infrastructure:

Observation

Forecasting

Telecom.

Data, Analysis

and Technical

Capacities

Partnerships

&

Concept of Operations

% countries

1 Need for development in all areas 12

2 Need for improvements in all areas 42

3 Self sufficientNeed for improvements

in these areas 26

4Self sufficient

Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines

20

Under estimated

Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies that Influence the National DRM Programmes and Funding

PartnersAgency Type Coordination

National DRR Implementation

Funding

World Bank

(GFDRR)Development X X

ISDRCoordination X X

UNDPDevelopment

XX X

WFP, FAO Humanitarian

DevelopmentX X X

UN- OCHA Humanitarian X X

IFRC Humanitarian X X

Donors (EC, etc) Donor X

WMO is addressing this challenge through national and regional projects with World Bank,

UNDP, ISDR and others• Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery• Modernization of infrastructures (when needed)

– observing networks, forecasting and communication

• Data rescue and managment systems• Technical training – Analysis and forecasting tools

and methodologies

Generating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (2007-2011)

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects

2007 20092008 2010 2011

(Africa)

(Asia)

(South America)

(North America & Carribeans)

(Asia-Pacific)

(Europe)

Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS

Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo

DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO,

NOAA, IFRC)

World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in South East Asia

Phase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR)(underway)

Lao

VietnamCambodia

Indonesia

Philippines

Initiated in 2009

Goal: to strengthen institutional cooperation and coordination in

• Risk Management Capacities

• Hydro meteorological services

Trends and patterns of hazard are changing due to climate change

(IPCC)Statistical analysis of historical data

is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to

augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform

geographically

(IPCC, 2007)

Trends in heavy rainfall

Drou

ghts

Need for production of local climate information…

Highly Resource Intensive!

Trends in Frost and Heat Waves

Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services

Four Major Thrusts: • Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors

– Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies)

• Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers – to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and

information to national centers

• Strengthen observation networks • More targeted climate research

Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)

Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers

Washington

Montreal

Exeter

ECMWF

Toulouse

Moscow

Pretoria

Melbourne

BeijingSeoul

Tokyo

Lead Centre for SVSLRF

Lead Centre for LRFMME

SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range ForecastsLRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

CLW/CLPA/WCAS

World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future

Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September

2009

Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in Africa

Funded by GFDRR

• Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda

• Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies

• Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management

• Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years:

• Partners– National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK,

ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)• Status: Project was launch on June 21• World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan

For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. [email protected]

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

Thank You

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Tropical Cyclones

Coastal Marine Hazards

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

HealthHealth IndustryIndustry

Food Food securitysecurity

TransportTransport

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing

Volnurability and Exposure on the rise !

Need fordisaster riskmanagement

A comprehensive approach to DRR is critical for reducing risks

WMO Strategic Plan

2008-2015(Top Level Objectives and

Five Strategic Thrusts)

Hyogo Framework for Action

2005-2015

(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)

WMO strategic priorities

in Disaster Risk Reduction

Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National

network and partners

Documents

World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water