World metal peaks -Introduction - WordPress.com · 2021. 5. 23. · 1 Jean Laherrère 22 May 2021 World metal peaks -Introduction In the Mendeleev table, metals are more numerous

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Jean Laherrère 22 May 2021

World metal peaks

-Introduction

In the Mendeleev table, metals are more numerous than nonmetals and their abundance is

quite variable on earth: from 0.0001 to 82 000 ppm!

The most abundant element on earth’ crust (by weight) is by far oxygen, followed by silicon,

aluminium and iron (CRC), but different percentages can be found when using oxides

It appears that silica is 40 times more abundant in earth’s crust than water!

Gutowski 2.83/2.813 in “Materials Production; energy used and carbon emitted” gives the full

list in a graph with metals in red

CRC %

Oxygen 46,1

Silicon 28,2

Aluminum 8,2

Iron 5,6

Calcium 4,1

Magnesium 2,3

Sodium 2,4

Potassium 2,1

Titanium 0,6

Hydrogen 0,1

Manganese 0,1

Phosphorus 0,1

Carbon 0,02

2

The most abundant element (in weight) in human body is also oxygen (63 %) followed by

carbon (21 %)

Those who dream for a carbon free world should know that they want their own

disappearance, as most of life on earth is based on carbon and oxygen

When a child, you are told about the gifts from Santa Claus, when an adult you are told about

the gifts of a constant eternal (exponential) growth (without telling that it is GDP growth, but

there are 4 different GDPs). Santa Claus does not exist and constant growth cannot exist for

ever on a finite earth.

Eternal growth needs an infinite earth, but earth is finite and will disappear one day when the

Sun will explode (in 5 Ga after the consumption of most of its hydrogen ?).

It means that every production starts from zero, increases and goes through a peak (or several)

and finally ends. There are many examples, as coal mines in UK or in France.

Denying the reality of peak for any production is believing in an infinite earth.

But peak is politically incorrect, as everybody hopes for growth.

All the debts from covid19 will be solved by growth, say the politicians!

But what about inflation? Inflation will grow too!

Wait and see!

GDP is tied to population and to energy.

% periodictable wiki

Oxygen 61 65

Carbon 23 18,5

Hydrogen 10 9,5

Nitrogen 2,6 3,2

Calcium 1,4 1,5

Phosphorus 1,1 1

Potassium 0,2 0,4

Sulfur 0,2 0,3

Sodium 0,14 0,2

Chlorine 0,12 0,2

Magnesium 0,027 0,1

Silicon 0,026

3

-Laherrere J.H. 2020 »Evolution de l’énergie : pics passés, présents et futurs » Club de Nice

XVIII forum 1er décembre papier long base de la présentation

https://aspofrance.org/2020/12/09/evolution-de-lenergie-pics-passes-presents-et-futurs-2/

Primary energy and GDP (in constant $) follows similar growth from 1900 to 1975 (first oil

shock) but beyond, GDP (manipulated) displays a stronger growth. The big question is when

the peak? See below

World real GDP is more erratic than electricity consumption on the period 1980-2018

On the web, if there are many forecasts on world energy production, there are few forecasts

on metal production?

0,1

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PE

Gto

e &

GD

P T

$20

10

lo

g s

cale

year

world primary energy, GDP & population in log scale

GDP T$2010

PE x 3.6

increase 4.5 %/a

PE Gtoe

population

growth 4%/a

growth 3%/a

growth 2%/a

growth 1%/a

Jean Laherrere 28 Nov 2020

growth rate 1979-2016GDP 2.9 %/aPE 1.8 %/apopulation 1.5 %/a

"Thirty Glorious"1947-1977

4

Historical production data are hard to find; the more precise data are USGS (US Geological

Survey) and BGS (British Geological Survey). But both do not provide an updated historical

production graphs, only data on the last few years. Plotting historical graphs needs to pick

values in many reports.

USGS reports annual production and reserves for 84 commodities in “mineral commodity

summaries”, when BGS reports 74 commodities in “world mineral production”!

USGS does not report uranium data (?), when BGS does.

Few agencies publish reserves data, except USGS.

Metal production can be forecasted when reserves or ultimates are estimated.

The technique to estimate ultimate of oil production is described (1982) as the “Hubbert

linearization” = HL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_linearization

It works well when the plot is linear for many year, but in many cases the extrapolation is

difficult as the trend is often erratic or hyperbolic.

-Modelling

Many metals displays several cycles and can be modelled using Hubbert cycle (in fact the

logistic function Verhulst 1845) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_curve

-Laherrère J.H. 1997 “Multi-Hubbert modelling”

http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/multihub.htm

In 1999 I modeled Vostok temperatures on 430 000 years with 21 Hubbert cycles (20 000

years = Milankovitch precession)

Hubbert model gives the production P for annual year t from tm = peak time, Pm = peak

value , c = half width

P = 2Pm/(l+COSH(-5(t-tm)/c)))

Covid19 deaths and ICUs (intensive care unit) can be also modelled with several cycles

For France, deaths and ICUs correlate well from March 2020 to January 2021, but not after

for some strange reasons (fight between hospital managers asking for lockdown and Macron

against lockdown). ICU were not increased, despite government‘s will.

ICUs (blue) are modelled with 7 cycles (4 major) and covid deaths with 5 cycles (4 major).

Medias fear about a “fourth wave” in July 2021 but it is already over

5

World covid deaths can be modelled with 6 cycles (one future)

Bakken crude oil production in North Dakota can be modelled with two cycles

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01/03/2020 01/05/2020 01/07/2020 31/08/2020 31/10/2020 01/01/2021 03/03/2021 03/05/2021 03/07/2021

cov

id d

eath

s sm

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th 1

3 d

ICU

France: intensive care units with 7 cycles et covid deaths smooth 13 days with 5 cycles

C1

C2C3

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C7total C1 to C6

ICUC8

C9C10

C11

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covid deaths smooth 13 d

Jean Laherrere 22 may 2021

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22/01/2020 22/03/2020 22/05/2020 21/07/2020 20/09/2020 20/11/2020 19/01/2021 21/03/2021 20/05/2021 20/07/2021

covid

19

da

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World covid19 daily deaths modelled with 6 cycles

deaths smooth 7 d

C1

C2

C3

C4

C5

C6

all cycles

Jean Laherrere 21 may 2021

source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

6

-Energy transition

The demand for minerals will increase in the future, as shown by the new IEA may 2021

report “The role of critical minerals in clean energy transition”

Electric car demands much more metal, outside steel and aluminium

-Metals

-bauxite (aluminium)

There are different production data: bauxite mine, alumina Al2O3, aluminium Al.

Aluminium is aluminum for some!

These three productions varies with about the same growing trend (see log scale) but the

grade of bauxite declines slowly

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Bakken North Dakota production & forecast with 2 cycles

ap/month Mb

U = 4,2 Gt

U = 2,45 Gt

U = 1,75 Gt

CP Mb

cum U = 4,2 Gt

cum U = 2,45 Gt

cum U = 1,75 Gt

Jean Laherrere 21 May 2021

7

The ratio bauxite over aluminium & alumina production is strangely rising from 2016 to 2020

after a decline since 1975. But in fact alumina data is from refinery.

USGS reports alumina refinery data only since 2014.

It is hard to distinguish between ore production and recycling.

I rely only on USGS and BGS data

The site ”aluminium for future generations” https://recycling.world-

aluminium.org/review/global-metal-flow/ states:

Of the estimated 1.5 billion tonne of aluminium produced since 1880, three quarters is still in

productive use. In 2019, around 36% is located in buildings, 25% in electrical cables and

machinery and 30% within transport applications. Recycling the metal currently stored in use

would equal up to 24 years’ worth of current annual primary aluminium production.

Today recycled aluminium produced from old scrap originates 33% from transport, 26%

from packaging, 13% from engineering and cables and 16% from building applications, due

to their long lifetimes.

-bauxite

HL (Hubbert linearization) of bauxite production is very chaotic and for the period 2011-2020

trends towards 22 Gt when cumulative production plus reserves trends towards 40 Gt

1

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1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world bauxite mine & aluminium smelter production log scale

USGS bauxite mine prod

BGS bauxite prod

BGS alumina prod

BGS aluminium prod

USGS aluminium prod

Jean Laherrere March 2021

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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ratio bauxite over aluminium & alumina production 1975-2020

bauxite/aluminium USGS

bauxite/alumina USGS

bauxite/alumina BGS

Jean Laherrere May 2021

8

Because the high uncertainty on the reserves, future bauxite is forecasted using two ultimates:

50 & 100 Gt, giving a peak around 2050 (700 Mt) and around 2070 (1200 Mt)

David S. Jacks (Simon Fraser University/Yale-NUS College, CEPR, and NBER) February

2021 reports commodity real prices 1900=100 in “Chartbook of Real Commodity Prices,

1850-2020”

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aP

/CP

%

cumulative prodiction Mt

HL of world bauxite production

aP/CP%

2011-2020

Linéaire (2011-2020)


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world bauxite mine annual & cumulative production

U = 100 Gt

U = 50 Gt

Bauxite prod

U = 100 Gt

U = 50 Gt

CP +reserves

CP


9

USGS reports bauxite production and reserves: for 2019 the largest producer is Australia with

29 % of the world production and only 17 % of the reserves. China is second with 20 % of the

production and only 3 % of the reserves.

-aluminium Al

HL of Al world production is rather chaotic but the last 6 years trend towards 4,5 G, but the

period 2007-2020 trends towards infinite

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world bauxite mine production & real price

USGS bauxite mine prod

BGS bauxite prod

real price 1900=100

Jean Laherrere April 2021

2019 production Mt % reserves Mt %

world 358 100 30000 100

Australia 105 29 5100 17

China 70 20 1000 3

Guinea 67 19 7400 25

Brazil 34 9 2700 9

India 23 6 660 2

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aP

/CP

%

cumulative production Mt

HL of world aluminium production 1930-2020

aP/CP%

2007-2020

2015-2020




10

Two ultimates are chosen 5 and 10 Gt.

For an ultimate of 5 Gt, Al production will peak around 2030-2035, for an ultimate of 10 Gt

around 2055

The site https://alucycle.world-aluminium.org/public-access/ displays the evolution from

1962 to 2050

Graphs for 2000, 2020 and 2050

The mining production is increasing up to 2050: no peak

But a producers association would not forecast a peak, meaning future decline!

But our mine production peak comes from chaotic HL, not to reliable.

The ratio production bauxite/aluminium is displayed with the two ultimates of 50 and 100 Gt

for bauxite and the 10 Gt for aluminium.

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world aluminium production & forecasts

U =10 Gt

U = 5 Gt

aluminium prod Mt

U =10 Gt

U = 5 Gt

CP Mt


https://alucycle.world-aluminium.org/public-access/

11

It appears that the most probable ultimate is 50 Gt for bauxite and 10 Gt for aluminium from

ore.

The Al price has declined sharply: in1850 it was 37 500 $/t or about 700 000 $2019/t against

1800 $/t in 2019

DS Jacks real price 1900=100 is compared with USGS real price $2019/kg

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ratio production bauxite/aluminium past and forecast

past

100 Gt/10 Gt

50 Gt/10 Gt


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world aluminium production & US price

aluminium prod Mt

Al $2019/t

Al $/t


12

If bauxite is very abundant, the transformation into aluminium needs a lot of energy, in

particular electricity and energy will decline in the future.

Aluminium (as the bitcoin and CCS= CO2 capture) using a lot of energy to be produced will

be limited by energy but recycling will increase and save energy.

Wiki: US aluminium production 1940-2014 displays the importance of recycling scrap

Energy intensity to obtain Al is decreasing from 1980 to 2020 from 17 to 14 kWh/t

https://www.world-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-smelting-energy-intensity/

Is it going to decline again in the future?

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world aluminium price: USGS & Jacks

Jacks 1900=100

Al $2019/t

Al $/t


https://www.world-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-smelting-energy-intensity/

13

-chromium Cr

BGS reports the world Cr production 1912-2012: bumpy rise

HL of world chromium production is chaotic; the last 3 years trends towards 1400 Mt but the

last 4 years trends towards2600 Mt and an ultimate of 2000 Mt has been chosen

USGS chromium reserves data is also chaotic; dropping from 3600 Mt in 2010 to 810 Mt in

2011 and data are missing from 2004 to 2008.

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kW

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world primary aluminium smelting energy intensity

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/CP

%


HL of chromium ore production 1900-2020

aP/CP%

2017-2020

2018-2020



Jean Laherrere may 2021

14

Cr ultimate is taken as 2000 Mt giving a peak in 2019

Cr ore $2019 price has been chaotic but mainly on decline

Kaiser Research displays a similar graph except for the last decade production despite that

the source is the same: USGS!

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world chromium production & forecasts

U = 2 000 Mt

synth Mt

CP+reserves

U = 2 000 Mt

CP Mt

Jean Laherrere april 2021

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world chromium ore production & prices

prod Mt

ore $2019/t

USGS metal $2019/kg


15

DS Jacks reports Cr metal real price 1900=100 which is compared with the ore real price

The Cr largest producer in 2019 is South Africa, but the largest reserve holder is Kazakhstan

The 1970 Club of Rome “The limits to growth” (LtG) reports Cr reserves as 775 Mt (against

3700 Mt for USGS 1994)

Page 62


world 44,8 100 570 100

South Africa 16,4 37 200 35

Turkey 10 22 26 5

Kazakhstan 6,7 15 230 40

India 4,1 9 100 18

Finland 2,4 5 13 2

16

In the above graph, LtG assumes that the 1970 known reserves should be multiplied by 5 to

take care of the futures discoveries but in the next graph they assumed only doubling the

known reserves, the production will peak in 2070 and collapse sharply later (for some

unexplained reason if not usage rate!)

Page 65

17

In fact my remaining 1970 ultimate is about the double (2.4) of LtG known reserves but the

peak is then 2019, far from LtG 2070 forecast

Vitallium is a mixture of chromium (30%), cobalt (65 %) and molybdenum (5 %) created in

1936 by Dr Venable in bone operation. In 1990 I was operated to strengthen my femur bone

broken in a car crash in 1955. I have 2 plates and 24 screws with a total weight about one

pound. Vitallium is nonmagnetic and I was able to pass undetected in all the airport metal

detectors for many years. This Vitallium quality of going undetected thru airport metal

detectors is not indicated anywhere on the web, maybe to not give bad ideas to terrorists to

pass Vitallium weapons through metal detectors.

X-ray of my femur 1990: 2 plates and 24 screws (break in the middle of the plates is due to

the paper folding kept in my wallet in case of problems with metal detector)

Vitallium is also used in dentistry and jewelry.

-cobalt Co

Cobalt production data varies with sources, but strong rise since 2000!

Hl of cobalt production for the period 2011-2019 trends towards an ultimate of 10 Mt

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pro

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world cobalt production from different sources

prod BGS mines

prod BGS metal

USGS prod

prod BP


18

This 10 Mt ultimate is in line with last USGS reserves + cumulative production

With 10 Mt ultimate Co production will peak around 2030 at 160 kt

IEA may 2021 does not seem to forecast any Co peak before 2040, contrary to my forecast

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/CP

%

cumulative production kt

HL of world cobalt mine production

aP/CP%

2011-2020


CP+RR = 10 000 kt


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world cobalt production & forecast U = 10 Mt

U = 10 Mt

mine prod aP

U = 10 Mt

CP+reserves

USGS reserves

CP


19

Co price is sometimes chaotic, but roughly flat since 1940 in $2019

In 2019 the largest Co producer and reserves is Congo Kinshasa

-copper Cu

HL of the period 2015-2020 trends towards 1500 Mt which is below the CP+USGS reserves,

the HL for the period 2000-2011 trends towards 1900 Mt. An ultimate of 2000 Mt is chosen

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world cobalt mine production & price

mine prod aP

$2019/kg

$/kg


2019 production kt % reserves kt %

world 144 100 7 100 100

Congo Kins 100 23 3 600 48

Russia 6,3 4 250 4

Australia 5,7 4 1 400 20

Philippines 5,1 4 260 4

Cuba 3,8 3 500 7

20

With an ultimate of 2 Gt, world Cu production should peak around 2030

Forecast by Kerr & Northey 2014 is similar with mine for the timing of the peak, but slightly

different in value and decline.

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/CP

%


HL of world copper mine production

aP/CP%

2015-2020

2000-2011




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world copper primary production

U = 2000 Mt

primary production

USGS

U = 2000 Mt

CP+reserves

USGS reserves

cum production


21

Contrary to my forecast, IEA may2021 does not see any peak before 2040, believing in new

developments and in the increase in Cu reserves, despite the decline of quality ore.

Cu price in $2019 is low compared with 1900, there were a strong doubling in 2006: it was

the time where I installed a geothermal heat pomp with 400 m2 of Cu pipes and as the price

of the work was settled, they decrease the thickness of the pipes by 2!

22

The chaotic Cu price disturbs the production.

In 2006 I install a geothermal heat pomp with copper pipes on 400 m2 and the price of copper

doubles, so the installer diminishes by half the thickness of the pipes to stay in the agreed

price, leading later to problems (

https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/pompechaleurpreshaut.pdf)

DS Jacks reports “Chartbook of Real Commodity Prices, 1850-2020”

David S. Jacks (Simon Fraser University/Yale-NUS College, CEPR, and NBER) February

2021

Xavier Chavanne (U Paris Diderot), expert on energy (see his 2013 book “Energy efficiency:

what it is, why it is important and how to assess it”), considers that the problem is to produce

poor grade metals to be competitive. It is easier to produce a poor surface mine than a rich

deep mine.

The price of energy will increase.

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world copper annual production &US price

primary production

USGS

$2019/kg

$/kg


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world copper annual price: USGS & DS Jacks

Jacks 1900=100

$2019/kg

USGS US $/kg


23

On 2019 Cu largest producer and reserves owner is Chile with about a one quarter of the

world

Cu will be more requested in future, as for IFPen: 20 kg of copper are necessary to build a

thermic car, 40 kg for a hybrid car and 80 kg for an electric car.

For E.Pirard U Liége: Cu grade has decreased sharply since 1800 from 8 % to 1.8 % in 1930

to 0.8 % (125 t of ore for 1 t of Cu) today

Recent Cu grade


world 20,4 100 870 100

Chile 5,79 28 200 23

Peru 2,46 12 92 11

China 1,68 8 26 3

Congo 1,29 6 19 2

US 1,26 6 48 6

24

Mudd & Weng 2012 displays several country grade decline, but not for Chile the largest

producer

-gold Au

HL of gold production is rather chaotic as many peak in the past (8 since 1840), but the last 3

years trends towards 300 kt.

25

An ultimate of 300 kt is in line with the cumulative production + USGS reserves.

The cumulative production is compared with world population and the correlation is good

from 1980 to 2010

Au world mine production is plotted since 1840, despite that gold has been mined for

millennium. It is modelled with 9 cycles and compared to price. The last cycle is future and

adjusted to agree with the 300 kt ultimate.

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/CP

%


world gold production Hubbert linearization 1900-2020

1900-2020

2018-2020


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pu

lati

on

M

go

ld c

um

ula

tive p

rod

uct

ion

kt

year

world gold cumulative production & modeling for an ultimate of 300 kt & world population

U = 300 kt

cum 9 cycles

CP+reserves

cum production USGS

USGS reserves

population


source : USGS 2020, Mudd 2009, Wellmers & Becker 2001, Rigway 1929

26

Gold price was the base of the US dollar the Bretton Woods agreement (1945-1971) and later

gold price was hard to forecast.

With an ultimate of 300 kt, gold mine production has peaked in 2019

The concentration of gold in mines declines with time depending upon new discoveries

DS Jacks real price 1900=100 is compared with gold price $2019 per troy ounce

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

go

ld p

rice

$/o

z

go

ld a

nn

ual

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

year

world gold annual production with 9 cycles modeling & price

H0

H1

H2

H3

H4

H5

H6

H7

H0 to H8

U = 300 kt

USGS prod.

Mudd prod.

H8

gold price $/oz

Jean Laherrere April 2021 source USGS, G.Muddhttp://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htm

another cycle?

27

The largest gold producer is China followed by Australia which is the largest reserves owner

-Comparison price of gold, oil and wheat 1900-2020

From 1900 to 1975 prices of gold, oil and wheat are similar and almost flat, but after the oil

shock oil and gold prices vary together when wheat stays very low

Gold, oil and wheat production rises were similar since 1950 and gold and oil peaks also =

now! It means that future prices are hard to forecast!

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

19

00

=1

00

$ p

er t

roy o

un

ce

gold price from different sources

$2019/oz

gold price $/oz

Jacks 1900=100



world 3,3 100 53 100

China 0,38 12 2 4

Australia 0,33 10 10 19

Russia 0,3 9 2,7 5

US 0,2 6 3 6

Canada 0,18 5 2,2 4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

gold

pri

ce

$/o

z

oil

$/b

, w

heat

$/b

ush

el

price of gold, oil & wheat

oil price $/b

wheat $/bushel

gold price $/oz


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

gold

pri

ce

$/o

z

oil

$/b

, w

heat

$/b

ush

el

price of gold, oil & wheat

oil price $/b

wheat $/bushel

gold price $/oz


28

-iron (steel)

Steel is made of iron and carbon. Iron is reported by USGS until 2017 as mine production and

for reserves as crude ore and as iron content, but after mine production was divided in usable

ore and iron content, keeping the same reserves.

A large amount of steel comes from recycling and it is hard for me (knowing little on the

subject) to combine reserves from ore and recycling.

USGS data changed for 2015: US crude ore reserves dropped from 11,5 to 3 Gt

For 2015 China is reported first with 1380 Mt of mine production (the largest producer) and

one year later as 375 useable iron and 257 Mt iron content: it is confusing

For 2019 Australia is by far the richest country for iron content production and reserves!

China is only number 3 for iron content production and number 4 for iron content reserves

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

go

ld p

rod

ucti

on

kt

cru

de +

con

den

sate

pro

du

cti

on

Mb

/dworld oil and gold annual production & forecast

crude+condensate (EIA)

U = 3300 Gb

gold prod kt

U = 300 kt


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

wh

eat

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

cru

de+

con

den

sate

pro

du

ctio

n M

b/d

world wheat and crude oil production

crude+condensate (EIA)

U = 3300 Gb

wheat prod Mt


29

Worldsteelorg reports only steel production where China is by far number 1 with about half of

the world production and Australia is only number 28 producer

2019 iron content prod Mt % iron content reserves Gt %

world 1520 100 84 100

Australia 569 37 24 29

Brazil 258 17 15 18

China 219 14 6,9 8

India 148 10 3,4 4

Russia 64,3 4 14 17

Ukraine 39,5 3 2,3 3

Canada 35,2 2 2,3 3

US 29,8 2 1 1

30

BGS (British Geological Survey) reports iron ore, similar with USGS except after 2015,

unfortunately the last data are for 2018

The plot of confused steel and iron production from different sources displays a large change

around 2004 with China

31

The same plot with log scale shows that steel varies differently with iron in particular since

2000; where iron increases more than steel.

The ratio iron ore production versus raw steel production stays around 1.2 from 1960 to 2002

and later increases to about 2 in 2014, stopping the rise.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world iron production from different sources

USGS iron ore

BGS iron ore

worldsteel.org steel

USGS iron content


1

10

100

1000

10000

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world iron production log scale

USGS iron ore

BGS iron ore

worldsteel.org steel

USGS iron content


32

HL of ore production trends towards 220 Gt

An ultimate of 200 Gt is in line with USGS iron ore reserves and gives a present peak and a

large decline

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

rati

o i

ron

pro

du

ctio

n v

ers

us

raw

ste

eel

pro

du

ctio

n

world iron ore production versus raw steel production


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000

aP

/CP

%

cumulative ore production Mt

workd HL of ore production

aP/CP%

2015-2019



33

Iron ore price has increased sharply in 2009 compared with 2000 with China jump, but a

sharp decline in 2015.

Future trend will be interesting!

The present fight between Australia and China is the key.

Jacks real price does not agree on the values of the burst of 2011 with USGS, despite that

Jacks uses USGS data, something wrong somewhere in the unit or the deflator ! I use BP

2020 deflator for oil price 1881-2019

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

175 000

200 000

225 000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cum

ula

tive

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

Mt

world iron ore production & forecast

iron ore synt prod Mt

U = 220 Gt

CP ore Gt

U = 220 Gt

CP +iron reserves

USGS iron content reserves Mt

Jean Laherrere April2021

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

iton

ore

pri

ce

$/t

& $

20

19

/t

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

Mt

world iron ore production & price

iron ore synt prod Mt

iron ore $2019/t

iron ore $/t


34

In 2019, the largest iron producer and reserves holder is Australia and second is Brazil

-steel

HL of steel production trends towards 240 Gt (more that the iron ultimate?)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

ore

pri

ce $2

01

9/t

Jack

s 1

90

0=

10

0

world iron ore real price from USGS & Jacks

iron ore 1900=100 Jacks

iron ore $2019/t USGS


2019 iron content prod Mt % iron content reserves Gt %

world 1520 100 84 100

Australia 569 37 24 29

Brazil 258 17 15 18

China 219 14 6,9 8

India 148 10 3,4 4

Russia 64,3 4 14 17

Ukraine 39,5 3 2,3 3

Canada 35,2 2 2,3 3

US 29,8 2 1 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

aP

/CP

%

cumulative steel production Mt

workd HL of steel production

aP/CP%

2011-2020



35

The problem is that steel is made from iron ore but also from recycled iron.

My forecast is only for raw steel (see USGS and worldsteel.org)

This 240 Gt steel ultimate (higher than ultimate from iron ore) gives a peak around 2040,

different from iron ore peak because of the recycled iron.

-China steel

China is the main cause of the steep increase of steel production from 2000.

The HL of China steel production since 2000 for the period 2016-2020 trends towards 50 Gt

The cumulative China steel production 1930-2000 is 2 Gt.

With an ultimate of 50 Gt (52 since 1930) China steel production will peak around 2030 at

1400 Mt., but the decline is sharp (as the rise), about 8%/a: it is likely that China will react by

recycling more, but they would import more steel.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cum

ula

tive

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

tworld steel production & forecast

U = 240 Gt

steel worldsteel.org

raw steel USGS

China steel prod

CP steel

U = 240 Gt


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000

aP

/CP

%

cumulative production since 2000 Mt

HL of China steel production 2000-2020

aP/CP%

2016-2020



CP1935-2000= 2 Gt

36

The steel decline in 2016 is tied with a 2015 trough in coal production

A previous China steel forecast for U = 45 Gt was compared with other forecasts: some (Rio

Tinto) forecasted steel peak before 2030, but others were completely wrong!

-world less China steel

The HL of World less China steel production (since 1935 with CP steel to 1935 = 2,7 Gt))

trends towards 110 Gt

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

cym

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

China steel production 2000-2020 & forecast

U = 50 Gt

decline 8 %/a

aP Mt

U = 50 Gt

CP Mt


CP1935-2000= 2 Gt

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

stee

l p

rod

ucti

on

Mt

year

China crude steel annual production & forecast U = 45 Gt

Wood Mackensie

BREE 2012

BHP 2013

JP Morgan 2013

Rio Tinto 2012

Zhu et al 2012

Accenture 2017

Li forecast

Li Xinchuang IEA 2017

U =45 Gt

aP Mt


37

World less China steel production is on a bumpy plateau above 500 Mt until 2050 and will

decline beyond.

The world steel ultimate 110 + 52 = 162 Gt peaks in 2030

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 110 000

aP

/CP

%

cumulativ production Mt since 1935

HL of world less China steel production 1935-2020

aP/CP%

1992-2019



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

an

nu

al

stee

l p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

world less China steel.org prod Mt 1935-2020

W less China

U = 110 Gt

CP W-Ch Mt

U = 110 Gt


38

World steel $2019 price evolution is very chaotic with high bumps from 600 to >1200

$2019$/t)

DS Jacks reports steel real price for the period 1850-2020: it is slightly different from USGS

in $2019

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

an

nu

al

stee

l p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

world & China steel.org prod 1935-2020

W less China

China steel prod

U = 110 Gt

U = 52 Gt

world

U = 162 Gt


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

pri

ce $

/t &

$2

01

9/t

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world steel production & price

steel worldsteel.org

steel bar price $2019/t

steel bar price $/t


39

In 2019, the largest steel producer is China, followed by India

-lead Pb

Lead has been produced since a long time, starting 5000 years ago, but now being toxic, Pb

use is avoided (except for the rebuilding of Notre Dame de Paris roof).

Science vol 265 23 sept 1994

A first peak was reached 2000 years ago , with a low around 850

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

pri

ce $

/t &

$2

01

9/t

Ja

cks

190

0=

10

0

world steel real price from USGS & Jacks

steel Jacks 1900=100

steel bar price $2019/t


2019 pig iron Mt % raw steel Mt % pig+raw Mt

world 1280 100 1860 100 3140

China 809 63 996 54 1805

India 74 6 111 6 185

Japan 75 6 99 5 174

Korea 48 4 71 4 119

Russia 50 4 72 4 122

US 22 2 86 5 108

Germany 25 2 40 2 65

Brazil 26 2 32 2 58

40

Lead production is since the Bronze age made of cycles, like the climate, which is

demonstrated by the variation of the evolution of the largest glacier in the Alps = Aletsch

(B.Francou & C.Vincent “Les glaciers à l’épreuve du climat” editions Belin 2007)

I live in France in the valley of the Claise which is described by Walter Youngquist in its

1994 book Geodestiny on the first page

In certain valleys of France, especially in the Claise River Valley, flint nodules are present in

great abundance for several miles in the bordering limestone cliffs. Here, ancient peoples

developed extensive flint workings, chiefly near the present village of Grand Pressigny. These

rocks probably made this area the most important economic district in Europe at that time

Flint blades 40 cm in length were made from the same block with few waste and stored in the

ground.

41

This unique technique was killed by the bronze age 5000 years ago.

HL of world Pb production trends for the period 2013-2020 towards 425 Mt, which is in line

with the extrapolation of CP +USGS reserves

For this 425 Mt ultimate, world Pb production has peaked in 2013 and its decline is around 3

%/a

Hook compared world copper, zinc and lead production 1900-2014

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

aP

/CP

%


HL of world lead production 1900-2020

aP/CP%

2013-2020


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world lead annual & cumulative production & forecast

U = 425 Mt

decline 3 %/a

production

CP+reserves

U = 425 Mt

CP


source production : BGS & USGS

42

In 2019 the largest Pb producer is China, but the largest reserves owner is Australia

Lead price has been chaotic as production

DS Jacks reports real price which is in very good fit with USGS data


world 4,72 100 88 100

China 2,0 42 18 20

Australia 0,51 11 36 41

Peru 0,31 7 6 7

US 0,27 6 5 6

Mexico 0,26 6 5,6 6

Russia 0,23 5 4 5

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

$/k

g &

$2

01

9/k

g

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world lead annual production & price

production

$2019/kg

$/kg


43

-lithium Li

There are several ways to produce lithium, but now, brine is prevailing.

World Li production data varies with sources, but after a drastic increase in 2014 Li

production did peak in 2018, because a decline in price.

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

$2

01

9/k

g

Jack

s 1

90

0=

10

0

world lead real price from USGS & Jacks

1900=100

$2019/kg


44

HL of Li production is unreliable

Ultimate is estimated from USGS reserves data at 22 Mt and Li production will peak around

2060

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world lithium production from different sources

Mohr

BGS

BP

USGS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world lithium production

a¨/CP%

2018-2020


ultimate MtMohr 2012 = 23.6USGS 2020 = 22

45

IEA may 2021 sees a large increase in Li demand in their SDS scenario

Li price was high in the 1950s, low in 2000, sharp increase from 2015 to 2018 and decrease in

2020

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

kt

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

kt

world lithium production & forecast

U = 22 Mt

prod kt

CP +reserves kt

U = 22 Mt CP

CP kt


ultimate MtMohr 2012 = 23.6USGS 2020 = 22

46

In 2019 the largest producer was Australia and the largest reserves owner Chile

-manganese Mn

Contrary to other metals, USGS reports manganese mine production for the Mn content (as

Statista) when BGS reports the ore data. The ore having a grade about 33%, BGS data are

about 3 times higher than USGS data. As USGS reports reserves, forecast are given for the

Mn content (using a factor 3 for USGS missing data from BGS)

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

pri

ce $

/kg

& $

20

19/k

g

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world lithium production & price

prod kt

Li carb $/kg

$2019/kg


2019 Li prod kt % Li reserves Mt %

world 86 100 21 100

Australia 45 52 4,7 22

Chile 19,3 22 9,2 44

China 10,8 13 1,5 7

Argentina 6,3 7 1,9 9

Zimbabwe 1,2 1 0,2 1

47

HL of manganese (Mn content ) is chaotic for the period 2000-2010: an ultimate of 2500 Mt

is chosen.

With an ultimate of 2.5 Gt, Mn production will peak around 2050 at 25 Mt.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world manganese (Mn content) production from differen sources

IMNI ore

BGS prod

IMNI

Statista

USGS


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

aP

/CP

%


HL of world manganese ((Mn content) production 1945-2020

aP/CP%

2011-2020



48

Mn price displayed many up and down, presently down and price differs widely from sources

DS Jacks reports Mn metal real price compared with USGS ore real price

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

5

10

15

20

25

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

Mt

world manganese (Mn content) production & forecasts

U = 2500 Mt

Mn content Mt

U = 2500 Mt

CP +reserves

CP Mn content


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

ore

pri

ce $

20

19/t

Ja

cks

19

00=

100

world manganese ore & metal real price

Jacks metal 1900=100

ore $2019/t


49

Since 1950, Mn metal real price is on the increase when Mn ore real price is on the decline

In 2019 the largest Mn producer and reserves owner is South Africa

-mercury Hg

As lead, mercury is toxic and its production is avoided and declining.

Production is recorded since 1500 with silver mining and a first peak (silver mining) before

1800.

Mercury was used for mirror for 400 years and stopped around 1900.

Mercury is used to extract gold in artisanal mining and is a major problem in polluting many

poor countries..

From 1860 to 1900 California wildcat gold miners used about 5 000 t of mercury

Hg production peaked in World War II because used in ammunition primers and detonators.

HL of world Hg production is chaotic, but an extrapolation can be done to 700 kt on line with

CP + USGS reserves

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

ore

pri

ce $

20

19/t

Ja

cks

19

00=

100

world manganese ore & metal real price

Jacks metal 1900=100

ore $2019/t


2019 Mn prod Mt % reserves Mt %

world 19,6 100 1300 100

South Africa 5,8 30 520 40

Australia 3,18 16 230 18

Gabon 2,51 13 61 5

Brazil 1,74 9 270 21

Ghana 1,55 8 13 1

China 1,33 7 54 4

50

Hg production peaked in 1970 at 10 kt and again in 2018 at 4 kt. The decline will continue at

a rate of 3 %/a.

USGS does not report any more mercury reserves after 2011

Hg price was reported by flask = can of 76 pounds = 34.5 kg

Hg price has been chaotic and is presently low.

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

aP

/CP

%


HL of world mercury production 1900-2020

aP/CP%

1957-2020



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

cu

mla

tive p

rod

ucti

on

kt

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

kt

wordl mercury production

U= 700 kt

decline 3 %/a

synt kt

U= 700 kt

CP+reserves

CP kt


51

In 2011 the largest Hg producer and reserves owner is China

USGS stopped to report Hg reserves as not available

-molybdenum Mo

World Mo recent production varies between USGS and BGS

HL of production for the period 2007-2020 trends towards 30 Mt, in line with the USGS

reserves

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

cp

rice

$/k

g &

$2

01

9/k

g

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

kt

world mercury production & price

production

$2019/kg

$/kg


2011 prod kt % reserves kt %

world 2,01 100 94 100

China 1,5 75 21 22

Kyrgystan 0,25 12 7,5 8

Chile 0,1 5 ? ?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world molybdeum production from different sources

BGS prod

USGS prod


52

For an 30 Mt ultimate , Mo production will peak around 2040 at 360 kt.

Mo price had sudden peaks in 1979 and 2006, today it is low

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000

TaP

/CP

%


HL of molybdeum production 1960-2020

aP/C¨%

2007-2020



0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

cu

mu

latr

ive

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world molybdeum production & forecasts

synth

U= 30 Mt

CP

U= 30 Mt

USGS reserves molyb

CP+reserves


53

In 2019 the largest Mo producer and reserves owner is China by far

-nickel Ni

HL of world Ni production is unreliable giving a large range between extrapolations of 2013-

2020 and 2014-2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

pric

e $/k

g &

$20

19/k

g

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world molybdeum production & price

production

$/kg

$2019/kg


2019 production kt % reserves Mt %

world 294 100 18 100

China 130 44 8,3 46

Chile 56 19 1,4 8

Peru 30,4 10 2,8 16

Mexico 16,6 6 0,13 1

Armenia 5 2 0,15 1

Canada 3,9 1 0,1 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world nickel production

aP/CP%

2013-2020

2014-2020




54

A 180 Mt ultimate was chosen from USGS reserves, giving a peak around 2025 around 2700

kt.

IEA may 2021 does not see to worry about a Ni peak in 2025

The concentration of Ni in mine in New Caledonia, Canada declined sharply from 1880 to

1940, in Australia in the 1970s

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cu

mu

lati

ve

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

kt

world nickel production & forecast

U = 180 Mt

synth prod kt

U = 180 Mt

CP +reserves kt

CP


55

Ni price was chaotic with bursts, but it is on decline since 2007

DS Jacks reports Ni real price, in perfect agreement with USGS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

pri

ce $

/kg

& $

20

19

/kg

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world nickel production & price

synth prod kt

Ni $2019/kg

Ni $/kg


56

IEA may 2021 reports Ni price but only since 1950

In 2019 the largest Ni producer and reserves owner is Indonesia

-platinum group metal

Platinum group metals are iridium, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and ruthenium

and there production and prices vary differently, the sum behaves strangely.

HL of PGM production trends towards 35 kt, but USGS reserves trends towards 90 kt and

two ultimates are chosen 35 and 90 kt

For U = 35 kt PGM has peaked in 2007, for U = 90 kt peak will be around 2070

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

$2

01

9/k

g

Ja

cks

190

0=

10

0

world nickel real price from USGS & Jacks

Jacks 1900=100

USGS $2019/kg



world 2610 100 94000 100

Indonesia 853 33 21000 22

Philippines 323 12 4800 5

Russia 279 11 6900 7

New Caledonia 208 8 NA ?

Canada 181 7 2800 3

Australia 159 6 20000 21

57

The price of platinum and palladium varies differently

Each metal of PGM production and price does not behave the same way

In 2019, the largest PGM producer and reserves holder is South Africa

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cum

ula

tiv

pro

du

ctio

n t

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n t

world platinum group metal production

BGS

USGS PGM

USGS plat+pallad

USGS palladium

USGS platinum

U = 90 kt

U = 35 kt

CP

U = 90 kt

U = 35 kt


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

pla

tin

um

pric

e $

/oz

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n t

world platinum group metal production & price

BGS

USGS PGM

USGS plat+pallad

USGS palladium

USGS platinum

price platinum $/oz


58

-silver Ag

HL of Ag world production was linear going to infinite from 1950 to 2013 but for 2014 to

2020 HL trends towards 3 Mt

An ultimate of 3 Mt is line with the extrapolation of CP +USGS reserves

2019 production t % reserves t %

world 413 100 69 000 100

South Africa 214 52 63 000 91

Russia 122 30 3 900 6

Zimbabwe 25 6 1 200 2

Canada 28 7 310 0

US 18 4 900 1

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

aP

/CP

%


HL of world silver production

aP/CP%

2014-2020



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

& r

eser

ves

kt

world silver cumulative production & reserves

U = 3000 kt

CP+reserves

CP

USGS reserves


59

For an ultimate of 3 Mt world Ag production has peaked on a bumpy plateau 2014-2018 and

its future decline beyond 2035 will be around 2 %/a

L. David Roper in 2018 forecasts silver production including recycling for an ultimate of 2

Mt “Silver Depletion Including Recycling with also a peak in 2015

http://www.roperld.com/personal/RoperLDavid.htm

But recycling is changing the decline

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tive p

rod

uct

ion

kt

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world silver production: annual & cumulative

U = 3000 kt

decline 2 %:a

silverinstitute.org

USGS

U = 3000 kt

CP



60

H.Sverdrup 2013 explained the Romain Empire collapse by the sudden drop in coin silver

content

World silver price had a burst in 1980 (”Silver Thursday” 27 March 1980) with the Hunt

brothers speculation (holding one third of the world silver supply in 1980, but bankruptcy in

1988) and a second burst in 2011. Today in $2019/kg Ag is higher than in 1900!

61

DS Jacks reports Ag real price since 1850

In 2019, the largest Ag producer is Mexico, followed by Peru which is the largest reserves

owner

-rare earth elements

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

pric

e $2

01

9/k

g &

$/k

g

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world silver annual production: annual & price

silverinstitute.org

USGS

price $2019/kg

$/kg


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

$20

19

/kg

19

00=

10

0

world silver real price from Jacks & USGS

1900=100

price $2019/kg



world 26,5 100 500 100

Mexico 5,9 22 37 7

Peru 3,9 15 91 18

China 3,4 13 41 8

Russia 2,0 8 45 9

Poland 1,5 6 70 14

62

Rare earth elements are a set of 17 nearly indistinguishable lustrous silvery-white soft heavy

metals.

Rare earth elements are not rare, with cerium being the 25th most abundant element at 68

parts per million, more abundant than copper. They are dispersed and their production gives

heavy pollution.

Wikipedia: in terms of their electronic properties, their magnetic properties, each one is

really exquisitely unique, and so it can occupy a tiny niche in our technology, where virtually

nothing else can.

USGS reserves are huge comparted to the cumulative production

HL of world rare earth production is completely useless.

An ultimate of 125 Mt is chosen from USGS reserves data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

con

Mt

year

world rare earth cumulative production & reserves

CP+reserves Mt

USGS reserves Mt

CP Mt



63

IEA may 2021 sees also large increase

The price of 2 elements is flat since 2012 after a burst in 2011

0

25

50

75

100

125

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

year

world rare earth production

USGS prod

U = 125 Mt

U = 125 Mt

CP Mt



64

In 2019, the largest rare earth producer and reserves owner is China(60 % & 44%) followed

by US 13% & 1%), same ranking in 1994 but China = 47% & 43 %;when US 32% & 13%

Producing rare earth is so polluting that the US prefers to buy rare earths from China than to

produce.

In 1980 China rare earth production was zero!

-tin Sn

HL of world Sn production is erratic but seems to trend towards 40 Mt

2019 prod kt % reserves Mt %

world 220 100 120 100

China 132 60 44 37

US 28 13 1,5 1

Burma 25 11 NA ?

Australia 20 9 4,1 3

Madagascar 4 2 NA ?

India 2,9 1 6,9 6

Russia 2,7 1 12 10

Vietnam 1,3 1 22 18

Brazil 0,7 0 21 18

1994 prod kt % reserves Mt %

world 64,5 100 100 100

China 30,6 47 43 43

US 20,7 32 13 13

FSU 6 9 19 19

Australia 3,3 5 5,2 5

India 2,5 4 1,1 1

South Africa 0,4 1 0,4 0,4

Brazil 0,4 1 0,3 0,3

65

For an ultimate of 40 Mt, Sn production has peaked on 2019 and its decline beyond 2040 will

be around 1.5 %/a

Tin price on the long run since 1900 is around 20 $2019/kg, despite a burst in 1980 connected

with the “Silver Thursday

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000 50 000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world tin production 1900-2020

aP/CP%

2005-2020


Jean Laherrere march 2021

66

DS Jaks reports tin price since 1850, which fits well with USGS data

In 2019, the largest Sn producer and reserves owner is China.

-tungsten W

World tungsten production data vary with sources (Dvoracek, BGS and USGS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

pri

ce

$+

kg

& $

201

9/k

g

an

nu

al

prt

od

ucti

on

kt

world tin production & price

production kt

$2019/kg

$/kg


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

$20

19

/kg

19

00

=1

00

world tin real price from Jacks & USGS

Jacks 1900=100

USGS $2019/kg


tin 2019 production kt % reserves kt %

world 296 100 4300 100

China 84,5 29 1100 26

Indonesia 77,5 26 800 19

Burma 42 14 100 2

Peru 19,9 7 140 3

Bolivia 17 6 400 9

67

HL of W production is erratic, but an ultimate of 10 Mt was chosen

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

World tungsten production from different sources

Dvoracek

USGS prod

BGS prod kt


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

aP

/CP

%

cumùulative production kt

HL of world tungsten production 1905-2020

aP/CP%

2017-2021



68

There is confusion when gathering tungsten price in dollar ; USGS reported price per short

ton unit and later by metric ton unit = mtu.

1 mtu = equivalent of 10 kg of tungsten per tonne of material

This mtu unit is very poorly worded and confusing.

A metric ton unit (mtu) of tungsten trioxide (WO3) contains 7.93 kilograms of tungsten.

Ore are mainly wolframite (Fe, Mn WO4) and scheelite (CAWO4)

Metalary.com reports tungsten price in $/t

The average ratio of $/t over $/mtu is about 150.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

kt

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

kt

world tungsten annual & cumulative production and forcasts

U = 10 Mt

synth kt

U = 10 Mt

CP+reserves

CP kt



world 83,8 100 3,4 100

China 69 82 1,9 56

Vietnam 4,5 5 0,095 3

Russia 2,2 3 0,4 12

Mongolia 1,9 2 0,004 0

Korea North 1,13 1 0,029 1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

$/m

tu

$/t

tungsten price

metalary.com $/t

USGS US $/mtu


mtu = metric ton unit= equivalent of 10 kg of tungsten per tonne of material1 mtu == 7.93 kg tungsten

69

Tungsten price displayed several burst 1915, 1952, 1977 and last 2012

In 2019, the largest W producer and reserves owner is by far China

-uranium U

USGS does not list uranium in its annual “Mineral commodity summary”.

In Open-File Report 2018–1021: It only addressed nonfuel minerals and, thus, did not include

uranium.

Uranium is critical for U.S. defense needs, energy production, the development of medical

isotopes and energy generation in space vehicles and satellites. Current (2018) U.S.

Department of Energy inventory is meeting most defense needs in the short term. However,

U.S. sourced uranium will be needed in the future to meet defense requirements that,

according to international agreements, must be free from peaceful use restrictions. Uranium

also is critical in ensuring a reliable supply of fuel for the 99 nuclear power reactors that

supply about 20 percent of U.S. electricity. Only 8 percent of uranium loaded into U.S.

nuclear power reactors in 2016 was of U.S. origin; the remaining 92 percent was imported

uranium. Under the American Isotope American Medical Isotope Production Act of 2012, the

U.S. Department of Energy carries out a program of assistance for the development of fuels,

targets, and processes for domestic molybdenum-99 medical isotope production. Uranium

also is needed for production of fuel for certain space missions.

It is strange to say that U is important and to not report U data.

But BGS and BGR do, as ESA (European Commission / Euratom Supply Agency / Nuclear

Observatory) or NEA (Nuclear energy agency) report U production and reserves.

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

$/t

& $

20

19/t

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world tungsten annual production and price

prod kt

$2019/t

$/t



world 83,8 100 3,4 100

China 69 82 1,9 56

Vietnam 4,5 5 0,095 3

Russia 2,2 3 0,4 12

Mongolia 1,9 2 0,004 0

Korea North 1,13 1 0,029 1

70

HL of world uranium production1945-2019 is erratic , trending towards a large range

HL of world uranium production (NEA) 2000-2019 is more linear for the last 7 years trending

towards about 2 Mt. As the cumulative production 1948-1999 is 2 Mt the ultimate since 1945

should be only 4 Mt, which is in line with the NEA reserves

BGR reports U reserves, but the last study is for 2019!

BGR cumulative production + reserves is also about 4 Mt, their BRG EUR is much higher

about 18 Mt.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

aP

/CP

%


HL of world uranium production 1945-2019

aP/CP%

2009-2019

1992-2008




0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0

aP

/CP

%


HL of world uranium production NEA 2000-2019

aP/CP%

2014-2019

2018-2019




cumulative production 1945-1999 = 2,06 Mt

71

Future U production is modelled using 3 ultimates: 4 Mt, 6.5 Mt and 10 Mt

NEA has estimated a range of requirements for the nuclear plants up to 2040,with a range of

56 to 100 kt when the range of production with the 3 ultimates is 18-63 Mt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

cum

ula

tuv

e p

rod

uct

ion

& r

eser

ves

Mt

world uranium cumulative production & reserves from BGR

BGR EUR Mt

BGR CP+RR

OECD CP Mt

BGR CP Mt

BGR reserves Mt ext<80 $/kg

Jean Laherrere Aug 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

an

nu

la p

rod

uct

ion

kt

world uranium annual & cumulative production & forecasts U = 10 Mt

U = 6.5 Mt

U = 4,Mt

OECD aP kt

BGR aP kt

NEA high

NEA low

OECD CP Mt

BGR CP+RR

U = 10 Mt

U = 6.5 Mt

U = 4,Mt


NEA-IAEA requirements

72

It is obvious that in 2040 the uranium production could be unable to meet the requirements of

the industry.

U price is different from long term contracts and spot contracts after 2008.

Uranium price is given in $/lb U3O8 (yellow cake) or in €/kg U metal

Cameco displays this graph where spot and long term were similar for the period 2000-2007,

which does not agree with the following graph from

https://ec.europa.eu/euratom/observatory_price.html

73

Price from EIA & NEA

EIA $/lbU3O8 NEA2020 $/kgU

U production and spot European prices are compared since 1972

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

$/l

b U

3O

8

€/k

g U

uranium price from different sources, product, money & time contract

eu € /kg U long

eu € /kg U spot

eu $/lb U3O8 long

eu $/lb U3O8 spot

EIA $/lb U3O8 spot

FRED $/lb


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1 940 1 950 1 960 1 970 1 980 1 990 2 000 2 010 2 020

av

era

ge

ES

A p

rice

$/k

g U

& $

20

19

/kgU

an

nu

la p

rod

uct

ion

kt

world uranium production & price from ESA

OECD aP kt

BGR aP kt

ave ESA $/lbU3O8 spot

$2019/lb U3O8


74

https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-

uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx

Kazakhstan produces the largest share of uranium from mines (42% of world supply from

mines in 2019), followed by Canada (13%) and Australia (12%).

NEA2020

production

Reserves and resources are estimated for different prices from 40 to 260 $/kgU

Identified resources T 1.2a

Inferred reserves T 1.4a

U inferred resources by country

2019 production kt %

world 54,2 100

Kazakhstan 22,8 42

Canada 6,9 13

Australia 6,6 12

Namibia 5,1 9

Uzbekistan 3,5 6

Niger 3,1 6

Russia 2,9 5

China 1,6 3

2019 Mt <40 $/kgU <80 $/kgU <130 $/kgU <260 $/kgU %

world 1,08 2,01 6,15 8,07 100

Australia 1,69 2,05 25

Kazakhstan 0,53 0,72 0,91 0,97 12

Canada 0,26 0,27 0,56 0,87 11

Russia 0,04 0,49 0,66 8

Namibia 0,45 0,50 6

South Africa 0,23 0,32 0,45 6

Niger 0,01 0,28 0,44 5

China 0,01 0,15 0,25 0,27 3

India 0,20 2

Ukraine 0,07 0,11 0,19 2

2019 kt <40 $/kgU <80 $/kgU <130 $/kgU <260 $/kgU %

world 336 764 2356 3346 100

Australia 509 765 23

Kazakhstan 258 376 462 504 15

Russia 15 275 405 12

Canada 2 11 103 221 7

South Africa 62 85 190 6

Namibia 169 184 5

China 49 90 130 147 4

Niger 38 124 4

Brazil 74 21 121 4

75

-zinc Zn

HL of world zinc production is erratic but the last 6 years data trends towards 900 Mt, which

is in line with CP + USGS reserves

With an ultimate of 900 Mt, zinc production has peaked in 2012 and its future decline will be

about 3.5 %/a

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world zinc production 1900-2020

aP/CP%

2015-2020



76

L. David Roper Zinc Depletion 2 July, 2016

http://www.roperld.com/personal/RoperLDavid.htm forecasted rightly zinc production (red

curve) using Hubbert modelling with reserve data

Zinc price displays as many other metals several bursts, but its price today is lower in $2019

than in 1900

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

ucti

on

Mt

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world zinc production & forecast

U = 900 Mt

decline 3,5 %:a

zinc prod kt

U = 900 Mt

CP+reserves

CP

USGS reserves zinc



77

DS Jacks reports real zinc price since 1850

In 2019, the largest zinc producer is China but the largest reserves owner is Australia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

pri

ce $

/kg

& $

20

19/k

g

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world zinc production & price

zinc prod kt

$2019:kg

$/kg


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

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1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

$2

019

/kg

19

00=

100

world zinc real price fro Jacks & USGS

1900-100

$2019:kg


2019 zinc production Mt % reserves Mt %

world 12,7 100 250 100

China 4,21 33 44 18

Peru 1,4 11 20 8

Australia 1,33 10 68 27

US 0,75 6 11 4

India 0,72 6 10 4

77

-Fertilizers: P, K, N

Agriculture depends upon three essential fertilizers: P = phosphorus = phosphate; K = potash

and N = nitrogen (ammonia = NH3, nitrate = NO3)

K is a metal, but not P and N

My 2020 paper «Phosphate production and reserves: doubtful inequality? What about peak

potash and peak nitrogen?”

https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/phosphate2020.pdf needs to be updated in

particular for phosphate

As agriculture needs for fertilizers a mixture of P, N and K and that there are no substitutes,

beyond 2030 with P and N in decline and K still rising agriculture will have problems

-phosphate (phosphorus P)

HL of phosphate production is erratic, but the last 4 years data trends towards 12, which is

much lower than USGS reserves.

.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world phosphate production 1900-2020

aP/CP%

1966-2001

2017-2020




https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/phosphate2020.pdf

78

In 2009, USGS increased widely Morocco reserves to 50 Gt from 20 Gt), representing 70 %

of the world reserves: it is the only metal with such concentration in the same country: I doubt

that this estimate is reliable.

With an ultimate of 12 Gt, phosphate production has peaked in 2017 and will declined with

about 6 %:a.

Production has increased from 1960 to 1980 at 6 %/a .

H. Sverdrup 2013 estimated an ultimate of 12,4 Gt and forecasted a peak around 170 Mt in

2020, modeling with 3 cycles with 2 future cycles, making the ultimate about 40 Gt

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

an

nia

l p

rod

ucti

on

Mt

world phosphate production & forecast

U = 12 Gt

rise 6 %/a

decline 6 %/a

prod USGS Mt

CP+reserves Mt

U = 12 Gt

CP Mt


Morocco reserves increase to 50 Gt in 2009 ??

79

David S. Jacks 2021 reports prices for phosphate compared with bauxite et iron ore since

1900: same burst

World phosphate production is compared with real and current prices.

In 2019, the largest phosphate producer is China, followed by Morocco which is the largest

reserves holder with 70 %, which looks unreliable!

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

ph

osp

hate

pri

ce

an

nia

l p

rod

ucti

on

Mt

world phosphate production & price

prod USGS Mt

Phosphate 1900=100 Jacks

USGS US $/t


2019 production Mt % reserves Gt %

world 227 100 71 100

China 95 42 3,2 5

Morocco 35,5 16 50 70

US 23,3 10 2,2 3

Russia 13,1 6 1,4 2

Jordan 9,2 4 0,6 1

Saudi Arabia 6,5 3 1,4 2

80

-nitrogen (ammonia) N

HL of nitrogen (ammonia = NH3) production displays a good linear trend for over 25 years

towards 10.5 ? As nitrogen is abundant in atmosphere the limit is the energy to extract it

With an ultimate of 10.5 Gt nitrogen production has peaked with a bumpy plateau 2015-2020

Price of nitrogen varies with the product: anhydrous ammonia, urea or liquid nitrogen.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world nitrogen (ammonia) production

aP/CP%

1995-2020



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

uct

ion

Mt

an

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

Mt

world nitrogen (ammonia) production & forecast

prod USGS Mt

U = 10 500 Mt

CP Mt

U = 10 500 Mt


81

Anhydrous ammonia price is compared with natural gas price.

USGS does not report nitrogen reserves as nitrogen represents a good percentage of the

atmosphere.

The problem is to produce H2 without too much energy use.

In 2019 the largest N producer is China followed by Russia and US.

-potash K

HL of potash production for the period 2005-2020 trends towards 8 Gt

2019 production Mt %

world 142 100

China 38 27

Russia 15 11

US 13,5 10

India 12,2 9

Indonesia 5 4

82

As there are 2 cycles

HL is plotted for the second cycle since 1993 and it trends (2012-2019) towards 2400 Mt and

as the cumulative production 1919-1992 is 850 Mt, giving an ultimate of 3300 Mt , about half

of the estimate with HL since 1919

Cumulative production + USGS 2020 reserves is about 8 Gt (11 Gt 2 years ago), and two

ultimates 4 & 8 Gt are plotted: the first one being more likely.

For U = 4 Gt peak is around 2025, for U = 8 Gt peak will be in 2060.

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world potash production 1919-2020

aP/CP%

2005-2020



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

aP

/CP

%


HL of world potash production 1993-2020

aP/CP%

2012-2019



CP 1919-1992 = 850 Mt

83

FRED potash price index 1985-2020 (1984=100) with a burst in 2008

N,P,K price 1960-1988 with a burst in 1975 associated with the oil shock

Potash USGS real price is compared with production

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

cum

ula

tiv

e p

rod

ucti

on

Mt

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world potash production & forecast

U = 8 Gt

U = 4 Gt

prod USGS Mt

CP+reserves

U = 8 Gt

U = 4 Gt

CP


84

In 2019 the largest potash producer and reserves holder is Canada followed by Belarus.

-Decline of concentration in metal mining

The grade of metals is on the decline

Around 1900 gold average grade was 22 g/t, but 5 g/t in the 1950s and 2 g/t today, when for

silver 1175 g/t in 1900, 98 g/t today

Gold ore grade 1835-2010 in Australia, Brazil, Canada , South Africa and US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

pri

ce

mu

ria

te $

/t

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n M

t

world potash production & price

prod USGS Mt

$2019/tK2O

$/tK2O muriate KCl


2019 prod Mt % reerves K2O Mt %

world 41,3 100 3700 100

Canada 12,3 30 1100 30

Belarus 7,35 18 750 20

Russia 7,34 18 600 16

China 5 12 350 9

Germany 3 7 120 3

85

G. Mudd reported the decline for the Australian industry 1840-2007 for Cu, Au, Pb, Zn, N,

diamonds and Ag

ResearchGate: Source: Prior et al., 2012, Fig : ore grade 1884-2009

86

-Metal and energy

-primary energy production

World primary energy production (= demand)1850-2019 is modelled with an ultimate of 2200

Gtoe estimated for the extrapolation of the period 1984-2019 (identical to the period 2006-

2019).

Primary energy forecast for an ultimate of 2200 Gtoe peaking at 17.6 Gtoe in 2047 and for an

asymptote of 1800 Gtoe (no decline thanks to renewables) is compared with the forecast of

IEA WEO 2020 for the scenario of Stated policies (red) and Sustainable policies (orange:

very unlikely))

-energy use for the production of metals

Holmberg et al 2017 “Global energy consumption due to friction and wear in the mining

industry”

0

1

2

3

4

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

aP

/CP

%

cumulative production Gtoe

HL of world primary energy production 1850-2019

a¨/CP%

1984-2019

2006-2019




0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

cum

ula

tive p

rod

uct

ion

Gto

e

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n G

toe

world primary energy production

PE Gtoe

U = 2200 Gtoe

U = 1800 Mtoe

WEO2020Stated

WEO2020Sustainable

CP Gtoe

U = 2200 Gtoe


87

Author links open overlay panel

Total energy consumption of global mining activities, including both mineral and rock

mining, is estimated to be 6.2% of the total global energy consumption. About 40% of the

consumed energy in mineral mining (equaling to 4.6 EJ annually on global scale) is used for

overcoming friction. In addition, 2 EJ is used to remanufacture and replace worn out parts

and reserve and stock up spare parts and equipment needed due to wear failures. The largest

energy consuming mining actions are grinding (32%), haulage (24%), ventilation (9%) and

digging (8%).

Energy use for mining, mineral processing, smelting and refining

J.Rankin 2002: energy use in metal production

https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/what-is-the-embodied-energy-of-materials.html

“The energy required to produce materials: constraints on energy-intensity improvements,

parameters of demand”

Timothy G. Gutowski, Sahil Sahni, Julian M. Allwood, Michael F. Ashby and Ernst Worrell

Published:13 March 2013 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0003

MJ/kg low MJ/kg high

titanium 900 940

aluminium from bauxite 227 342

nickel 230 270

copper 60 125

steel from iron 20 50

iron 20 25

88

Xavier Chavanne http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/files/EffEnergie-XC18oct10.pdf

Recycling scraps to steel needs about 1 MJ/kg Fe

More energy is needed when the dilution is high

Metal price and ore grades: Gutowski

89

IEA energy demand in iron & steel 2000-2018 in EJ: the majority is from coal

90

IEA in the May 2021 paper “High metal prices could delay transition to clean energy”

https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-

transitions/executive-summary

Demand in 2040 compared to 2020

91

IEA May 2021 “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transition”

Production (extraction & processing) of many energy minerals is more geographically

concentrated than that of oil and gas, showing the importance of China, but also Australia

(lithium) or Congo (cobalt)

In the SDS scenario (unlikely!) in 2040, electric cars (dark purple) will use about 1100 GWh

and electric trucks (yellow) very little!

IEA compares SDS & STEPS demand with forecasted supply in 2040 for Cu, Li & Co:

SDS looks almost impossible to reach!

92

Today’s recycling rate is high for gold (85 %) , medium for aluminium (40%), negligible for

lithium

-CO2 use

CO2 use and embodied energy for metals and others

IEA the role of critical minerals: CO2 emissions in mining and processing

93

Cobalt and aluminium pollute more than iron!

-Water use

IEA may 2021 reports rightly water use and water pollution, in particular for lithium

-Bitcoin energy use

Bitcoin is computed by Bitcoin miners using cheap energy in cold places.

Bitcoin energy use in April 2021 = 118 TWh = 0.5 EJ = 10 Mtoe = power consumption of

Netherlands (or Norway)

94

Bitcoin energy consumption is sharply increasing in 2021.

The energy consumption of a single Bitcoin equals the energy consumption of 0.8 M Visa

transactions

Mining Bitcoins is more carbon intensive than mining gold.

Bitcoin will be killed by its huge need of energy, as the CO2 capture and storage!

95

-Metal real price comparison

“Chartbook of Real Commodity Prices, 1850-2020” David S. Jacks (Simon Fraser

University/Yale-NUS College, CEPR, and NBER) February 2021 reports real price with

1900=100

Chromium higher than copper or aluminium

Manganese higher than lead or nickel

Tin price busted in 1975, today back to 1900 real price as steel or zinc

96

Iron is higher than phosphate or bauxite

Gold higher than platinum or silver

Main burst : nickel 1875, potash 1916, silver 1979, manganese 2008, platinum 2010

97

Banque Scotia https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/fr/qui-nous-sommes/analyse-

economique/publications-economiques/post.indices-des-prix-des-produits-de-base-de-la-

banque-scotia-(ippbbs).le-28-septembre-2020.html

Oil & gas price index (Jan 2007 = 100) is compared with metal price index and the

correlation is fairly good.

Ni, Cu et AL are also compared: : Cu has the highest increase

But oil price in the US = WTI depends upon the dollar value: WTI rises when US dollar

decreases. As metal price and oil price vary together, metal price rises when dollar value

declines.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

commodity price 1850-2020 base 1900=100 from DS Jacks

Aluminum

Chromium

Copper

Lead

Manganese

Nickel

Steel

Tin

Zinc

Bauxite

Iron ore

Phosphate

Potash

Sulfur

Gold

Platinum

Silver

98

The most expensive metal today by weight is the rhodium with about 0,7 M$/kg, followed by

iridium 0,1 M$/kg compared with iron with 0,1 $/kg

-synthesis

2019 production (USGS) values, peak time and peak value, cumulative production 2019, as

ultimate and 2040 forecasts are listed.

The following table is ranked by decreasing ultimates

the most expensive metal

2021 $/kg

rhodium Rh 675166

iridium Ir 102882

palladium Pd 77837

gold Au 58836

platinum 34562

osmium Os 12800

ruthenium Ru 9002

rhenium Re 4150

scandium 3460

silver 800

indium In 67

cobalt Co 29

molybdene Mo 24

tin Sn 18

nickel Ni 14,4

copper 6,5

zinc Zn 2,4

aluminium Al 1,7

lead Pb 0,9

iron Fe 0,12

99

List ranked by peak time: out of 26, half are before 2025: it means that about half metals have

passed peak.

The future of metal production is bleak for most of them!

2019 prod peak value peak time ultimate ultimate Mt cum 2019 Mt 2040

steel Gt 1,9 2,4 2046 240 240 000 60 000 2,4

iron Gt 4 4 2023 220 220 000 90 000 2,9

bauxite Gt 0,4 1,2 2070 100 100 000 7 900 0,8

bauxite Gt 0,4 0,7 2050 50 50 000 7 900 0,6

phosphate Mt 227 269 2017 12000 12 000 9 100 51

potash Mt 41 62 2060 8000 8 000 1 700 56

nitrogen Mt 142 142 2019 10500 10 500 5 100 106

alumunium Mt 63,2 130 2054 10000 10 000 1 400 114

alumunium Mt 63,2 77,5 2034 5000 5 000 1 400 75

manganese Mt 19,6 28 2047 2500 2 500 600 25

chromium Mt 44 44 2019 2000 2 000 9 500 22

copper Mt 20,4 21,5 2031 2000 2 000 750 21

zinc Mt 12,7 13,5 2012 900 900 550 7

lead Mt 4,7 5,5 2013 425 425 290 4

nickel Mt 2,5 2,7 2025 180 180 69 2

rare earth Mt 0,2 0,9 2100 125 125 4 0,4

tin Mt 0,27 0,32 2018 40 40 22 0,24

molygdeum Mt 0,3 0,36 2038 30 30 8 0,36

lithium Mt 0,09 0,4 2060 22 22 1 0,25

cobalt Mt 0,14 0,16 2030 10 10 2,8 0,15

tungsten Mt 0,084 0,09 2034 10 10 3,7 0,09

uranium kt 54,2 70 1980 6500 6,5 3 50

silver kt 26,5 26,9 2018 3000 3 1,7 20

mercury kt 3,9 10,3 1971 700 0,7 0,6 2

gold kt 3,3 3,3 2019 300 0,3 0,2 2

PGM kt 0,5 0,7 2065 90 0,09 0,02 0,6

PGM kt 0,5 0,5 2007 35 0,03 0,02 0,3

rank 2019 prod peak value peak time ultimate ultimate Mt cum 2019 Mt 2040

1 mercury kt 3,9 10,3 1971 700 0,7 0,6 2

2 uranium kt 54,2 70 1980 6500 6,5 3 50

3 PGM kt 0,5 0,5 2007 35 0,03 0,02 0,3

4 zinc Mt 12,7 13,5 2012 900 900 550 7

5 lead Mt 4,7 5,5 2013 425 425 290 4

6 phosphate Mt 227 269 2017 12000 12 000 9 100 51

7 tin Mt 0,27 0,32 2018 40 40 22 0,24

8 silver kt 26,5 26,9 2018 3000 3 1,7 20

9 nitrogen Mt 142 142 2019 10500 10 500 5 100 106

10 chromium Mt 44 44 2019 2000 2 000 9 500 22

11 gold kt 3,3 3,3 2019 300 0,3 0,2 2

12 iron Gt 4 4 2023 220 220 000 90 000 2,9

13 nickel Mt 2,5 2,7 2025 180 180 69 2

14 cobalt Mt 0,14 0,16 2030 10 10 2,8 0,15

15 copper Mt 20,4 21,5 2031 2000 2 000 750 21

16 alumunium Mt 63,2 77,5 2034 5000 5 000 1 400 75

17 tungsten Mt 0,084 0,09 2034 10 10 3,7 0,09

18 molygdeum Mt 0,3 0,36 2038 30 30 8 0,36

19 steel Gt 1,9 2,4 2046 240 240 000 60 000 2,4

20 manganese Mt 19,6 28 2047 2500 2 500 600 25

21 bauxite Gt 0,4 0,7 2050 50 50 000 7 900 0,6

22 aluminium Mt 63,2 130 2054 10000 10 000 1 400 114

23 potash Mt 41 62 2060 8000 8 000 1 700 56

24 lithium Mt 0,09 0,4 2060 22 22 1 0,25

25 PGM kt 0,5 0,7 2065 90 0,09 0,02 0,6

26 bauxite Gt 0,4 1,2 2070 100 100 000 7 900 0,8

27 rare earth Mt 0,2 0,9 2100 125 125 4 0,4

100

Comparison with primary energy as oil, gas and coal

In my forecast, energy will decline less than the metals.

-comparison with Harald Sverdrup et al 2013

Sverdrup et al 2013 “Peak Metals, Minerals, Energy, Wealth, Food and Population: Urgent

Policy Considerations for a Sustainable Society” displayed a log scale graph 1950-2010 of

most metals but also phosphate and helium

They used Hubbert model to forecast future production

1,0E-01

1,0E+00

1,0E+01

1,0E+02

1,0E+03

1,0E+04

1,0E+05

1,0E+06

1,0E+07

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

world metal annual production & forecasts log scale iron ktFe U = 220 Gtaluminium ktAl U = 10 GtpotassiumK U = 8 Gtchromium ktCr U = 2 Gtcopper ktCu U = 2 GtmanganeseMn U = 2,5 Gtzinc ktZn U = 900 Mtlead ktPb U = 425 Mtnickel ktNi U = 180 Mttin ktSn U = 40 Mtcobalt ktCo U = 10 Mttungsten ktW U = 10 MtlithiumLi U = 22 MtsilverAg U = 3 MtmercuryHg U = 0,7 Mtgold ktAu U= 0,3 Mt


1,0E-01

1,0E+00

1,0E+01

1,0E+02

1,0E+03

1,0E+04

1,0E+05

1,0E+06

1,0E+07

1,0E+08

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

an

nu

al

pro

du

ctio

n k

t

metal annual production & energy log scalePE ktoePE U = 2200 Gtoeoil ktoeoil U= 500 Gtoecoal ktoecoal U = 500 Gtoegas ktoegas U = 500 Gtoeiron ktFe U = 220 Gtaluminium ktAl U = 10 GtpotassiumK U = 8 Gtchromium ktCr U = 2 Gtcopper ktCu U = 2 GtmanganeseMn U = 2,5 Gtzinc ktZn U = 900 Mtlead ktPb U = 425 Mtnickel ktNi U = 180 Mttin ktSn U = 40 Mtcobalt ktCo U = 10 Mttungsten ktW U = 10 MtlithiumLi U = 22 MtsilverAg U = 3 MtmercuryHg U = 0,7 Mtgold ktAu U= 0,3 Mt


101

The comparison for peak time and value between Harald Sverdrup and myself (JHL) looks

pretty good!

102

-comparison with “The limits of growth” 1972

“The limits to growth” Club of Rome 1972 = LtG reported known 1970 reserves and not

ultimates, unable to estimate undiscovered reserves.

In the comparison in the following table of LtG page 56 1970 known reserves and my

forecasts of 1970 remaining ultimate, the ratio JHL/LtG varies from 2 to 19 (except coal) with

mostly 6: it means that the difference is quite large!

LTG omitted to forecast uranium production, despite it is a key element

LtG page 61 mentions: If we suppose that reserves yet undiscovered could increase

present known reserves by a factor of five,

But LtG page 65 for chromium the graph doubles only the known reserves to forecast

production to forecast a peak in 2070 when my forecast is for a chromium peak in 2019; quite

a difference

-“The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth” Simon P. Michaux 1.3.2021

The report 16/2021 from the Geological Survey of Finland states:

Global reserves are not large enough to supply enough metals to build the renewable non-

fossil fuels industrial system or satisfy long term demand in the current system. Mineral

deposit discovery has been declining for many metals. The grade of processed ore for many of

the industrial metals has been decreasing over time, resulting in declining mineral processing

yield.

It reports a 2011 recycling rate (needs upgrading)

Sverdrup JHL Sverdrup JHL

peak time time prod prod

gold 2020 2019 2,7 kt 3,3 kt

silver 2030 2018 25 kt 26,9 kt

molybdenum 2050 2038 0,36 Mt 0,36 Mt

nickel 2050 2025 3 Mt 2,7 Mt

zinc 2025 2012 13 Mt 13,5 Mt

copper 2035 2031 20 Mt 21,5 Mt

iron 2030 2023 2,15 Gt 4 Gt

LtG LtG LtG JHL JHL JHL

LtG 1972 M known reserves 1970 reserves Mt JHL ultimate Mt cum 1970 Mt U-cum1970 JHL/LtG

PGM troy oz (31 g) 429 0,01 0,03-0,09 0,002 0,028-0,088 6

gold troy oz (31 g) 353 0,01 0,3 0,09 0,21 19

mercury flask (34,5 kg) 3,34 0,1 0,7 0,04 0,66 6

silver troy oz (31 g) 5500 0,17 3 0,9 2,1 12

tungsten pound (454 g) 2900 1 10 1,1 8,9 7

cobalt pound (454 g) 4800 2 10 0,2 9,8 5

tin ton 4,3 4,3 40 10,2 29,8 7

molybdenum pound (454 g) 10800 5 30 1 29 6

nickel pound (454 g) 147000 66 180 9,1 170,9 3

lead ton 91 91 425 110 315 3

zinc ton 123 123 900 129 771 6

copper ton 308 308 2 000 167 1833 6

chromium ton 775 775 2 000 122 1878 2

manganese ton 800 800 2 500 106 2394 3

aluminium ton 1170 1170 10 000 111 9889 8

iron ton 100000 100000 220 000 14250 205750 2

natural gas tera cubic feet Tcf 1140 20 000 680 19300 17

petroleum Gb 455 3 000 280 2720 6

coal Gt 5000 1 300 150 1150 0,2

103

It quotes the 2014 book: Valero Capilla, A., and Valero Delgado, A., (2014): Thanatia- The

Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources: A Thermodynamic Cradle-to-Cradle Assessment,

with 2 graphs

These two graphs should be only one graph but in log scale!

I have not access to Valero’s book and I do not know how the forecast is done and justified

Valero’s peak time and peak value is compared for each production to mine and the

difference is huge, in particular for gold estimated peaking in 2001 where gold production is

2,6 kt when 2019 gold production is 3,3 kt

Valero estimates are obsolete!

Valeros 2015 “Thermodynamic Rarity and the Loss of Mineral Wealth” explained Thanatia

Valero 2014 Valero 2014 JHL JHL

peak time peak value peak time peak Mt

oil 2012 4300 2030 5100

coal 2059 4000 2013 4000

natural gas 2024 3000 2052 5100

potassium 2072 2000 2060 62

aluminium 2050 1600 2034 77,5

iron 2040 800 2023 4000

copper 2068 70 2031 21,5

cobalt 2073 33 2030 0,16

gold 2001 29 2019 0,003

nickel 2023 13 2025 2,7

zinc 2052 9 2012 13,5

104

This paper presents Thanatia as a baseline for evaluating the exergy of any mineral in the

crust and opens the door to discuss the “thermodynamic rarity” concept as a basis for exergy

analyses for mineral systems.

Exergy is a good concept but there is no reliable historical data series. I still do not know how

Valeros estimate metal peaks. 2021 article The Exergy Cost Theory Revisited César Torres

and Antonio Valero provides many equations but no historical data

Michaux has some good graphs to explain mining problems: a picture is worth thousands

words! This kind of truck will take some time to be electric!

Michaux concludes: This report proposes a solution that is an evolution of the Circular

Economy, that accounts for the embedded energy requirements of resource management. This

is a form of a Resource Balanced Economy (RBE), where the flow and management of

resources is optimized against technological applications and the demand requirements of

society. The paradigm for the proposed Resource Balanced Economy is the convergence

towards long term resource sustainability, through the maximum effective use of each

resource, with logistical energy constraints applied.

Many words but nothing concrete!

-Conclusion

Since the Bronze age, metal productions display cycles with the opening of new mines and

the closure of old mines, as new techniques and new needs.

Use of the Hubbert technique is the best way to estimate ultimate and to check if reserves are

well estimated and reported.

Ultimate is the only way to forecast future production until end.

But often reserves vary with time because of price and ultimate estimate is difficult.

The future production is limited by energy use.

Quality grade is decreasing, needing more energy. And energy will be limited in the future

A poor forecast of future production is better than no forecast.

I have tried to forecast future production by extrapolating USGS metal production past data.

Half of the 25 estimated production peaks are already past 2020.

105

It means that recycling should be a priority. It is hard to combine resources from ore or from

recycling. My study is incomplete by ignoring recycled production and needs to be improved,

but I did not find any good study on the subject: what are doing the students writing theses

(and their professors)?

The new policy against fossil fuels consumption in favor of electric cars put pressure on metal

productions, which appear, for most, unable to need these requirements, leading to price

increases.

Metal prices display in the past many bursts and erratic behavior, as speculation is strong.

Forecasting price is very hard, I never dare to forecast prices!

But price burst leads often to production increases, followed by strong declines.

The covid19 has obliged to give money to those locked down (by state decision) by printing

money and the coming health recovery will bring inflation, leading to higher metal prices.

2020 depression (lockdown by state decision) is not comparable with 2008 depression (bad

finance decision with the subprime and the securitization).

Inflation is back!

The Fed has repeatedly said that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” but the bond market

and commodities like copper, lumber, and palladium have issued danger signs as they all

reached new all-time highs this month (seekingalpha.com)

The world dreams of growth, but constant growth is impossible in a finite earth!

Policy of fabless enterprise (Alcatel), zero inventory led to catastrophe, in particular with

covid19 (masks). The new policy of carbon capture or energy transition to net zero carbon or

all electric looks dangerous, as being more political or religious than economical. Electricity

needs to be produced and cannot be stored!

The first car to reach 100 km/h was electric : ”la Jamais Contente” 1899: in 1900 the future

was for electric cars!

In 1807, François Isaac de Rivaz created the first hydrogen-powered internal combustion

engine. Hydrogen needs to be produced !

There is no international agency reporting metal historical production and reserves.

The problem of energy use is poorly considered, as the problem of water use and pollution.

The world is competition with fake data and universities do not appear to be interested in

gathering data and making forecast.

I hope that my attempt to provide world metal peaks will interest few.

My competence on metal production is none, but I try to use my competence on fossil fuels

production to forecast metal production from past data to alert on coming metal peaks.

NB: sorry for my broken English, but graphs are more important than text and my power for

writing is declining as I will be 90 at the end of the month.

Documents

World metal peaks -Introduction - WordPress.com · 2021. 5. 23. · 1 Jean Laherrère 22 May 2021 World metal peaks -Introduction In the Mendeleev table, metals are more numerous