World Handbook of Political Indicators IV J. Craig JenkinsOhio State University

Charles Lewis TaylorVirginia Polytechnic & State University

Marianne AbbottOhio State University

Basics of Frame ParsingNoun = Actor or Event Source Verb + verb complements = Event FormDirect Object = TargetIndirect Object = Location

Examples:”Scores of Japanese anti-nuclear campaigners staged a sit-in on Friday near Hiroshima's atom-bomb memorial to protest France's decision to resume testing nuclear weapons. “

”Russian nationalists desecrated a Jewish cemetery in St Petersburg on the eve of the Orthodox Easter, a duty police officer in Russia's second city said on Sunday. “

” Police said they have arrested eight people after a U.S. military plane was fired on as it landed at a Pakistan airfield used as a logistics base for the war in neighbouring Afghanistan.”

Objective: Computer coding of 51 contentious politics events Method:Frame parsing using Virtual Research Associates KnowledgeManager™ applied to lead lines of Reuters international newswire (1990-2004)Products:1. Global event data set covering all countries and major territories 2. Summary indicators of contentious politics: contentiousness, contentious violence, conflict carrying capacity

Major Event FormsCivil Protest:Protest, protest demonstration, protest obstruction, protest procession, protest defacement, protest altruism, support rallyCivil Violence:Riot, strikes & boycotts, abductions, hijacking, hostage seizures & kidnapping, physical assaults, beatings, sexual assault, assassinations, coups & mutinies, suicide bombing, mine explosion, vehicle bombingState Sanction:Covert monitoring, impose restriction, censorship, armed force mobilization, armed force activation, armed force blockadeState Violence:Exile, seize, seize possession, military occupation, political arrest, corporal punishment, armed action, torture, small arms attack, missile attack, crowd controlPolitical Relaxation: Ease sanctions, observe truce, relax censorship, relax administrative sanction, demobilize armed force, relax curfew, release/return persons, release/return property

Additional Parsing IssuesWhy lead lines? Main event focusIdentify & remove duplicatesPassive voiceTemporality (present, past, future)Compound actors, targets & verbsInter-state vs. intra-state eventsMetaphorical language (e.g. “The stock market exploded today”)Imputation of actor/target country identity Imputation of location Exclude dependent clauses (e.g. “after a U.S. military plane was fired on as it landed at a Pakistan airfield used as a logistics base for the war in neighbouring Afghanistan.”)

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Civil Protest Civil Violence

State Sanction State Violence

Contentious Politics in Turkey, 1990-2004

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Civil Protest Civil Violence

State Sanction State Violence

Conflict Carrying Capacity and Civil Contention in Turkey 1987-2002

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Normalized Civil Direct Actions Normalized Government Direct Actions

Conflict Carrying Capacity Normalized Violent Actions

Conflict Carrying Capacity

Objective: Dynamic Early Warning Index for Civil War & State Failure

Formula:

CCC = 100 - (CC * SR * CV) CCC = Conflict Carrying CapacityCC = % Civil Contentious Actions SR = % State Contentious ActionsCV = % Contentious Violence

Contentious Politics in Israel/Palestine, 1990-2004