World Fossil Energy Crisis and Fareless Urban Mass Transportation: Buying Time and Solving the Transportation Quagmire at the Same Time By John Bachar

World Fossil Energy Crisis and Fareless Urban Mass

Transportation: Buying Time and Solving the Transportation

Quagmire at the Same Time

By John BacharE-mail: [email protected]

May 2007 Update

REFERENCES1. Analytical paper by John Bachar: Fare-Free Mass Transit: A Case Study of What Is Now, and What Can Be In Any Metropolitan Urban Region of the USA, 2003.2. NHA, DOT, DOE, Oil and Gas and World Oil Journals. 3. Heinberg’s book “Party’s Over”, 2003. 4. Writings of leading oil geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere, especially their articles in the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPOG).5. Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 25, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2006.6. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), U.S. Department of Transportation, National Transportation Statistics 2007.

This talk will explore the world depletion of petroleum as well as the

depletion of natural gas and coal, and will describe a Fareless Urban Mass Transit System (FUMTS) that can

conserve well over 3.6 billion barrels of petroleum per year for all the urban

regions of the USA as well as billions of barrels of savings in all the other

urban regions on Earth!

WORLD AND US ENERGY DATA

SOURCE/SUPPLY/CONSUMPTION

DISTRIBUTION BY END-USE SECTOR

Petroleum1. World Oil Journal states (2006) that 1.08 trillion barrels of petroleum reserves are left on

Earth (probability of recovery is 90%).2. Very little new reserves are being found.3. World oil output will peak by 2006.4. Hubbert found a model for life of oil production of a producing well that correctly predicted

that US reserves production would peak in 1970.5. Today the US reserve supply (2006) is less than 22 billion barrels.6. Annual world consumption (end of 2006) is 31.03 billion barrels; US consumption (2006) is

7.514 billion barrels (24.2 per cent of world consumption!); 67 per cent of US consumption (5.03 billion barrels) is used by transportation sector; of transportation share, 4.2 billion (56 per cent) is used by highway vehicles (243 million passenger vehicles and trucks – 2004 data); the US has 32% of the world’s 754 million passenger vehicles and trucks.

7. At current rate of world consumption (1.9% annual consumption-rate increase), all petroleum will be exhausted in less than 25.4 years!! (see following table).

Natural Gas and Coal1. Estimated 1,200 trillion cubic feet of world reserves of natural gas that is estimated to last 50

years; annual USA usage is 23 trillion cubic feet; 97 percent in US is used by the residential, commercial, industrial, and electric, utilities sectors.

2. Total coal reserves are estimated at 200 to 300 years, although the easy-to-get-near-Earth’s surface share is a small percentage of the total; most is deep and requires deep mining methods for extraction; it is of little practical use for transportation.

Important consideration in energy usageEnergy in versus useful energy out (2nd law of thermodynamics).

Crude Oil Natural Gas Crude Oil Natural GasBillion Barrels Trillion Cubic Feet Billion Barrels Trillion Cubic Feet

North America 40.9 273.7 Middle East 708.3 2,542.70 Canada 4.7 60.7 Bahrain NR NR Mexico 14.8 20.4 Iran 130.8 944.7

United States 21.4 192.5 Iraq 115 112.6

Kuwait 5 99.7 56.6Central and South America 76 241.4 Oman 4.8 24.2

Argentina 2.3 18.9 Qatar 20 913.4

Bolivia 0.5 27.2 Saudi Arabia 5 262.1 238.5 Brazil 11.2 11.5 Syria 2.3 18

Chile (s) 0.9United Arab

Emirates 69.9 204.1 Colombia 1.5 4 Yemen 3 17

Cuba 0.6 0.6 Other 2 0.7 13.6 Ecuador 5.5 0.4

Peru 1 8.7 Africa 112.4 500.8 Trinidad and Tobago 0.8 18.8 Algeria 15.3 171.5

Venezuela 52.4 150.5 Angola 9 4

Other 2 0.2 (s) Cameroon NR NR

Congo (Brazzaville) 1.8 4.2

Europe 318.1 191.3 Egypt 3.6 66

Austria 0.1 0.8 Equatorial Guinea 1.8 3.4 Croatia 0.1 1 Gabon 2.2 3.4

Denmark 1.3 2.6 Libya 33.6 51.5 Germany 0.2 7.1 Mozambique 0 0 Hungary 0.2 2.4 Nigeria 36.6 180

Italy 0.7 6.3 Sudan 6.4 4 Netherlands 0.2 55.5 Tunisia 0.7 3.9

Norway 9.9 84.3 Other 2 1.5 8.9 Poland 0.3 5.3

Romania 0.5 4.8 Asia and Oceania 336.2 424.7

Serbia and Montenegro NR NR Australia 3.6 128.6 United Kingdom 3.9 18.8 Bangladesh NR NR

Other 2 0.8 2.4 Brunei 1.1 8.5Burma 0.2 8.9

Eurasia 489.9 2,823.30 China 15.4 51.4

Azerbaijan NR NR India 4.9 28.6 Kazakhstan NR NR Indonesia 5.3 63

Russia 67.1 2,361.10 Japan NR NR Turkmenistan NR NR Malaysia 3 56.6

Ukraine NR NR New Zealand 0.1 1.4 Uzbekistan NR NR Pakistan 0.3 30.1

Other 2 22.8 462.2 Papua New Guinea 0.2 13.6Thailand 0.5 12.5Vietnam 1.4 7.2 Other 2 0.2 14.2

WORLD 1,081.80 6,997.80

Region and Country

Table 11.4 World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves, January 1, 2005 (World Oil Journal)

Energy Information AdministrationApril 2007 Monthly Energy ReviewTable 11.2. Petroleum Consumption in OECD Countries(OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)(Billion barrels per year)Year France Germ. Italy UK OECD Can. Japan S. Kor. USA OECD OECD World

Europe Other1973 0.949 1.213 0.755 0.854 5.796 0.631 1.806 0.103 6.317 0.605 15.258 20.8911974 0.893 1.106 0.731 0.807 5.470 0.649 1.775 0.105 6.078 0.659 14.737 20.6871975 0.822 1.079 0.677 0.698 5.225 0.649 1.687 0.114 5.958 0.655 14.286 20.5121976 0.883 1.170 0.719 0.691 5.584 0.664 1.766 0.130 6.373 0.710 15.226 21.7811977 0.837 1.172 0.692 0.695 5.533 0.675 1.781 0.154 6.727 0.743 15.614 22.5671978 0.879 1.201 0.712 0.707 5.698 0.694 1.805 0.176 6.879 0.801 16.053 23.4181979 0.899 1.231 0.744 0.719 5.858 0.719 1.843 0.192 6.757 0.832 16.201 23.8051980 0.823 1.125 0.706 0.630 5.473 0.684 1.810 0.196 6.225 0.855 15.243 23.0361981 0.738 1.023 0.684 0.580 5.038 0.645 1.770 0.196 5.861 0.905 14.414 22.2441982 0.686 1.001 0.650 0.580 4.852 0.576 1.672 0.195 5.583 0.907 13.784 21.7331983 0.670 0.971 0.639 0.559 4.733 0.529 1.604 0.205 5.559 0.841 13.471 21.4541984 0.646 0.933 0.628 0.666 4.679 0.555 1.703 0.202 5.740 0.879 13.758 21.8331985 0.640 0.968 0.622 0.590 4.662 0.557 1.619 0.201 5.740 0.901 13.681 21.9311986 0.644 1.019 0.633 0.598 4.818 0.559 1.644 0.216 5.942 0.909 14.089 22.5601987 0.652 0.994 0.662 0.588 4.864 0.587 1.667 0.229 6.083 0.930 14.359 23.0301988 0.657 0.994 0.668 0.618 4.932 0.614 1.770 0.272 6.308 0.941 14.837 23.7121989 0.673 0.942 0.692 0.632 4.959 0.640 1.846 0.314 6.324 1.002 15.085 24.1181990 0.666 0.979 0.684 0.648 5.004 0.637 1.892 0.383 6.201 1.023 15.140 24.2891991 0.708 1.033 0.680 0.658 5.132 0.611 1.916 0.461 6.101 1.058 15.278 24.5031992 0.705 1.037 0.691 0.662 5.202 0.629 1.968 0.557 6.217 1.065 15.638 24.5861993 0.685 1.061 0.690 0.668 5.205 0.640 1.927 0.615 6.291 1.074 15.752 24.6211994 0.681 1.052 0.682 0.669 5.235 0.645 2.038 0.672 6.467 1.128 16.184 25.1001995 0.701 1.052 0.709 0.663 5.341 0.661 2.061 0.733 6.469 1.095 16.360 25.5441996 0.711 1.067 0.701 0.676 5.451 0.680 2.077 0.767 6.683 1.093 16.752 26.1121997 0.719 1.065 0.706 0.658 5.501 0.713 2.064 0.823 6.796 1.128 17.025 26.7521998 0.745 1.067 0.709 0.654 5.614 0.709 1.997 0.700 6.905 1.165 17.089 26.9901999 0.741 1.036 0.690 0.655 5.578 0.740 2.041 0.761 7.125 1.181 17.426 27.5932000 0.730 1.012 0.677 0.641 5.533 0.740 2.005 0.779 7.191 1.214 17.462 27.9662001 0.749 1.027 0.670 0.632 5.599 0.751 1.970 0.778 7.172 1.219 17.489 28.2532002 0.724 0.993 0.683 0.629 5.579 0.759 1.936 0.784 7.213 1.202 17.473 28.4972003 0.730 0.978 0.684 0.636 5.630 0.806 1.977 0.794 7.312 1.215 17.734 29.1012004 0.732 0.973 0.655 0.651 5.645 0.840 1.933 0.787 7.567 1.241 18.013 30.0892005 0.730 0.956 0.632 0.664 5.663 0.834 1.954 0.794 7.593 1.274 18.112 30.6752006 0.720 0.960 0.624 0.662 5.638 0.803 1.906 0.787 7.514 1.266 17.915 31.029

TOTALS 25.169 35.491 23.2 22.34 180.72 22.824 63.229 15.173 221.27 33.718 536.94 841.014

Year France Germ. Italy UK OECD Can. Japan S. Kor. USA OECD OECD WorldEurope Other

The 30 Member countries of the Organisation and the dates on which they deposited their instruments of ratification are:AUSTRALIA: 7 June 1971AUSTRIA: 29 September 1961BELGIUM: 13 September 1961CANADA: 10 April 1961CZECH REPUBLIC: 21 December 1995DENMARK: 30 May 1961FINLAND: 28 January 1969FRANCE: 7 August 1961GERMANY: 27 September 1961GREECE: 27 September 1961HUNGARY: 7 May 1996ICELAND: 5 June 1961IRELAND: 17 August 1961ITALY: 29 March 1962JAPAN: 28 April 1964KOREA: 12 December 1996LUXEMBOURG: 7 December 1961MEXICO: 18 May 1994NETHERLANDS: 13 November 1961NEW ZEALAND: 29 May 1973NORWAY: 4 July 1961POLAND: 22 November 1996PORTUGAL: 4 August 1961SLOVAK REPUBLIC: 14 December 2000SPAIN: 3 August 1961SWEDEN: 28 September 1961SWITZERLAND: 28 September 1961TURKEY: 2 August 1961UNITED KINGDOM: 2 May 1961UNITED STATES: 12 April 1961

In 2006, world consumption of petroleum was 31.029 billion barrels.IF AND THENthe annual rate of increased the total remaining world-wide the time that it takes forconsumption world-wide is: reserves in billions of barrels is: complete depletion is:

1.50% 1,000 26.5 years1.50% 1,200 30.7 years1.50% 1,500 36.6 years1.90% 1,000 25.4 years1.90% 1,200 29.3 years1.90% 1,500 34.6 years2.00% 1,000 25.1 years2.00% 1,200 28.9 years2.00% 1,500 34.2 years

Annual average rate of increased petroleum consumption worlwide:ten year period 1996-2006: 1.90%

Cumulative use in t years = S = P0{[(1+k)t - 1]/k} (in billions of barrels)

If S is given in advance, then t = [ln(1+k(S/P0))]/[ln(1+k)]

P0 = the initial annual consumption (world-wide) of petroleum (in billions of barrels)

k = the annual rate of increase of world-wide consumption

Cumulativeuse in t years = S = P0{[(1+k)t - 1]/k} (in billions of barrels)

If S is given in advance, then t = [ln(1+k(S/P0))]/[ln(1+k)]

P0 = the initial annual consumption (world-wide) of petroleumk = the annual rate of increase of world-wide consumption

P0 k S t S/P0 k(S/P0) 1 + k(S/P0) 1 + k ln(1 + k(S/P0)) ln(1 + k)

31.029 0.015 1000 26.49 32.23 0.48 1.48 1.015 0.394349 0.014889

31.029 0.015 1100 28.64 35.45 0.53 1.53 1.015 0.426418 0.01488931.029 0.015 1200 30.73 38.67 0.58 1.58 1.015 0.457490 0.01488931.029 0.015 1300 32.75 41.90 0.63 1.63 1.015 0.487625 0.01488931.029 0.015 1400 34.72 45.12 0.68 1.68 1.015 0.516879 0.01488931.029 0.015 1500 36.63 48.34 0.73 1.73 1.015 0.545301 0.01488931.029 0.015 1600 38.48 51.56 0.77 1.77 1.015 0.572938 0.01488931.029 0.015 1700 40.29 54.79 0.82 1.82 1.015 0.599832 0.01488931.029 0.015 1800 42.05 58.01 0.87 1.87 1.015 0.626021 0.01488931.029 0.015 1900 43.76 61.23 0.92 1.92 1.015 0.651541 0.01488931.029 0.015 2000 45.43 64.46 0.97 1.97 1.015 0.676427 0.01488931.029 0.015 2100 47.06 67.68 1.02 2.02 1.015 0.700708 0.01488931.029 0.015 2200 48.66 70.90 1.06 2.06 1.015 0.724414 0.014889

31.029 0.016 1000 26.20 32.23 0.52 1.52 1.016 0.415842 0.01587331.029 0.016 1100 28.31 35.45 0.57 1.57 1.016 0.449298 0.01587331.029 0.016 1200 30.34 38.67 0.62 1.62 1.016 0.481670 0.01587331.029 0.016 1300 32.32 41.90 0.67 1.67 1.016 0.513028 0.01587331.029 0.016 1400 34.24 45.12 0.72 1.72 1.016 0.543431 0.01587331.029 0.016 1500 36.09 48.34 0.77 1.77 1.016 0.572938 0.01587331.029 0.016 1600 37.90 51.56 0.83 1.83 1.016 0.601599 0.01587331.029 0.016 1700 39.66 54.79 0.88 1.88 1.016 0.629461 0.01587331.029 0.016 1800 41.36 58.01 0.93 1.93 1.016 0.656568 0.01587331.029 0.016 1900 43.03 61.23 0.98 1.98 1.016 0.682960 0.01587331.029 0.016 2000 44.65 64.46 1.03 2.03 1.016 0.708673 0.015873

31.029 0.016 2100 46.22 67.68 1.08 2.08 1.016 0.733741 0.01587331.029 0.016 2200 47.77 70.90 1.13 2.13 1.016 0.758196 0.015873

31.029 0.017 1000 25.92 32.23 0.55 1.55 1.017 0.436883 0.01685731.029 0.017 1100 27.98 35.45 0.60 1.60 1.017 0.471666 0.01685731.029 0.017 1200 29.97 38.67 0.66 1.66 1.017 0.505280 0.01685731.029 0.017 1300 31.90 41.90 0.71 1.71 1.017 0.537801 0.01685731.029 0.017 1400 33.77 45.12 0.77 1.77 1.017 0.569297 0.01685731.029 0.017 1500 35.58 48.34 0.82 1.82 1.017 0.599832 0.01685731.029 0.017 1600 37.34 51.56 0.88 1.88 1.017 0.629461 0.01685731.029 0.017 1700 39.05 54.79 0.93 1.93 1.017 0.658238 0.01685731.029 0.017 1800 40.71 58.01 0.99 1.99 1.017 0.686210 0.01685731.029 0.017 1900 42.32 61.23 1.04 2.04 1.017 0.713421 0.016857

31.029 0.017 2000 43.89 64.46 1.10 2.10 1.017 0.739911 0.01685731.029 0.017 2100 45.42 67.68 1.15 2.15 1.017 0.765717 0.01685731.029 0.017 2200 46.92 70.90 1.21 2.21 1.017 0.790874 0.016857

31.029 0.018 1000 25.64 32.23 0.58 1.58 1.018 0.457490 0.017840

31.029 0.018 1100 27.67 35.45 0.64 1.64 1.018 0.493545 0.017840

31.029 0.018 1200 29.62 38.67 0.70 1.70 1.018 0.528345 0.01784031.029 0.018 1300 31.50 41.90 0.75 1.75 1.018 0.561975 0.01784031.029 0.018 1400 33.32 45.12 0.81 1.81 1.018 0.594510 0.01784031.029 0.018 1500 35.09 48.34 0.87 1.87 1.018 0.626021 0.01784031.029 0.018 1600 36.80 51.56 0.93 1.93 1.018 0.656568 0.01784031.029 0.018 1700 38.46 54.79 0.99 1.99 1.018 0.686210 0.01784031.029 0.018 1800 40.08 58.01 1.04 2.04 1.018 0.714999 0.01784031.029 0.018 1900 41.65 61.23 1.10 2.10 1.018 0.742982 0.01784031.029 0.018 2000 43.17 64.46 1.16 2.16 1.018 0.770203 0.01784031.029 0.018 2100 44.66 67.68 1.22 2.22 1.018 0.796703 0.01784031.029 0.018 2200 46.11 70.90 1.28 2.28 1.018 0.822519 0.017840

31.029 0.019 1000 25.38 32.23 0.61 1.61 1.019 0.477681 0.01882231.029 0.019 1100 27.36 35.45 0.67 1.67 1.019 0.514955 0.01882231.029 0.019 1200 29.27 38.67 0.73 1.73 1.019 0.550890 0.01882231.029 0.019 1300 31.11 41.90 0.80 1.80 1.019 0.585578 0.01882231.029 0.019 1400 32.89 45.12 0.86 1.86 1.019 0.619104 0.01882231.029 0.019 1500 34.62 48.34 0.92 1.92 1.019 0.651541 0.01882231.029 0.019 1600 36.29 51.56 0.98 1.98 1.019 0.682960 0.01882231.029 0.019 1700 37.90 54.79 1.04 2.04 1.019 0.713421 0.01882231.029 0.019 1800 39.47 58.01 1.10 2.10 1.019 0.742982 0.01882231.029 0.019 1900 41.00 61.23 1.16 2.16 1.019 0.771694 0.01882231.029 0.019 2000 42.48 64.46 1.22 2.22 1.019 0.799604 0.01882231.029 0.019 2100 43.93 67.68 1.29 2.29 1.019 0.826757 0.01882231.029 0.019 2200 45.33 70.90 1.35 2.35 1.019 0.853192 0.018822

31.029 0.020 1000 25.12 32.23 0.64 1.64 1.020 0.497472 0.01980331.029 0.020 1100 27.06 35.45 0.71 1.71 1.020 0.535917 0.01980331.029 0.020 1200 28.93 38.67 0.77 1.77 1.020 0.572938 0.01980331.029 0.020 1300 30.74 41.90 0.84 1.84 1.020 0.608638 0.01980331.029 0.020 1400 32.48 45.12 0.90 1.90 1.020 0.643107 0.01980331.029 0.020 1500 34.16 48.34 0.97 1.97 1.020 0.676427 0.01980331.029 0.020 1600 35.79 51.56 1.03 2.03 1.020 0.708673 0.01980331.029 0.020 1700 37.36 54.79 1.10 2.10 1.020 0.739911 0.01980331.029 0.020 1800 38.89 58.01 1.16 2.16 1.020 0.770203 0.01980331.029 0.020 1900 40.38 61.23 1.22 2.22 1.020 0.799604 0.01980331.029 0.020 2000 41.82 64.46 1.29 2.29 1.020 0.828166 0.01980331.029 0.020 2100 43.22 67.68 1.35 2.35 1.020 0.855934 0.01980331.029 0.020 2200 44.59 70.90 1.42 2.42 1.020 0.882952 0.019803

2006 WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES/CONSUMPTION

WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES: ONE TRILLION BARRELS FILLS A CUBE 3.27 MILES ON EACH SIDE

ANNUAL WORLD PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION: 31.03 BILLION BARRELS (and increasing 1.9% annually)FILLS A CUBE 1.06 MILES ON EACH SIDE

NUMBER OF YEARS LEFT TO EXHAUST WORLD RESERVES AT CURRENT INCREASING RATE OF CONSUMPTION:

LESS THAN 25.4 YEARS!

U.S. History: Petroleum From Own Reserves versus Consumption71.687 billion barrels 189.032 billion 221.273 billionproduced from own barrels consumed barrels consumedreserves in 30 years: in 30 years: in 34 years:

1977-2005 1977-2005 1973-2006

Discepancy: 30 year period, 1977-2005117.345 billion barrels imported

= 68.02% of total 30 year consumption!

HIGHWAY DATA

FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION [FHWA] FUNCTIONAL SYSTEMThe functional classification of public streets and highways is grouped into systems according to the services they provide.

PRINCIPAL ARTERIALS (PA)RURAL: A road classified as Principal Arterial (PA) serves corridor movements having trip length and travel density characteristics of statewide or interstate travel. A PA Rural route provides an integrated network without stub connections except under certain conditions such coastal city or international boundary connections.URBAN: A PA Urban route carries the major portion of trips entering and leaving urban areas as well as the majority of through movements bypassing the central city. PA serves intra-area travel (such as between major inner-city communities, between central business districts and residential areas or between major suburban centers).

MINOR ARTERIALS (MA)RURAL: Rural MA roads link cities, larger towns and other important traffic generators such as resort areas into an integrated network of arterial highways. This network provides intrastate and inter-county service connecting to rural collector or local roads.URBAN: Urban MA streets and roads interconnect and expand the PA system and provide service for moderate distance and lower mobility travel. The MA system distributes travel to smaller geographic areas than the PA system. The Urban MA system may carry local bus routes and provide intra-community continuity but does not penetrate neighborhoods.

COLLECTORSRURAL: Rural Collector routes generally serve travel of primarily intra-county importance rather than statewide importance. Predominant travel distances are shorter than on Arterial routes. RURAL MAJOR COLLECTORS (MJC): Rural MJC routes provide service to county seats and larger towns not served by Arterials. Rural MJC routes also link other important intra-county traffic generators such as consolidated schools, shipping points, county parks and important mining and agricultural areas.RURAL MINOR COLLECTORS (MNC): Rural MNC routes serve the more important intra-county corridors and developed areas within a reasonable distance of a major collector road. Rural MNC routes also link the locally important traffic generators in the rural areas.URBAN COLLECTORS (COL): Urban COL routes provide land access service and traffic circulation within residential neighborhoods, commercial and industrial areas.

LOCAL STREETS AND ROADSLocal Streets and Roads are technically not functionally classified.RURAL LOCAL (LOC): Rural LOC routes provide access to adjacent land and provide service to short distance travel.URBAN LOCAL (LOC): Urban LOC routes provide access to neighboring land or to functionally classified routes. These routes offer the lowest level of mobility and usually contain no bus routes. Through traffic movement is usually discouraged.

POPULATION GROUPSThe United States Bureau of Census divides communities into groups by volume of population. These groupings are used for further analysis by many agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and are an important part of HPMS (Highway Performance Monitoring System) data items and analysis.RURAL ( R ) AREAS are those areas outside the boundaries of small urban and urbanized areas. The Bureau of Census defines rural areas as having a population of less than 5,000.

SMALL URBAN (S) areas are defined by the Bureau of Census as having a population of 5,000 to 49,999.URBANIZED (U) areas are defined as having a population of 50,000 to 199,999.LARGE URBANIZED (L) areas pertain to larger urban areas having a population of over 200,000.

URBANRURAL(PAI)Principal Arterial Interstate(PAI)Principal Arterial Interstate(OFE)Principal Arterial – Other FWY / EXP(OPA)Other Principal Arterial(OPA)Other Principal Arterial(MA)Minor Arterial(MA)Minor Arterial(MJC)Major Collector(COL)Collector(MNC)Minor Collector(LOC)Local(LOC)Local

Table 1-5: U.S. Public Road and Street Mileage by Functional System a

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TOTAL urban and rural mileage 3,936,222 3,948,335 3,966,485 3,974,107 3,981,512 3,995,635

Principal arterials, Interstates 46,427 46,467 46,483 46,508 46,572 46,608

Principal arterials, other freew ays, and expressw ays 108,059 108,311 108,176 106,908 106,192 105,716

Principal arterials, other 190,889 190,643 191,007 192,466 195,144 197,211

Minor arterials 522,910 523,246 521,357 518,176 517,479 521,672

Collectors 360,003 360,090 359,947 364,638 369,992 370,496

Local 2,707,934 2,719,578 2,739,515 2,745,411 2,746,133 2,753,932

Urban mileage, total 852,243 877,004 894,724 940,969 981,276 1,009,839


Principal arterials, other freew ays, and expressw ays 9,140 9,126 9,323 9,870 10,246 10,560


Minor arterials 89,789 89,962 90,411 93,888 97,433 101,673

Collectors 88,200 88,713 89,247 97,114 102,150 106,109

Local 598,421 622,741 638,813 668,767 696,623 713,991

Rural mileage, total 3,083,979 3,071,331 3,071,761 3,033,138 3,000,236 2,985,796



Minor arterials 137,575 137,587 137,568 135,596 135,449 135,408

Major collectors 433,121 433,284 430,946 424,288 420,046 419,999

Minor collectors 271,803 271,377 270,700 267,524 267,842 264,387

Local 2,109,513 2,096,837 2,100,702 2,076,644 2,049,510 2,039,941a Includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. When states did not submit reports, data were estimated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.

Table 1-5: Distribution of U.S. Public Road and Street Mileage by Functional System a

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TOTAL urban and rural mileage 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Principal arterials, Interstates 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Principal arterials, other freew ays, and expressw ays 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%

Principal arterials, other 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9%

Minor arterials 13.3% 13.3% 13.1% 13.0% 13.0% 13.1%

Collectors 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.2% 9.3% 9.3%

Local 68.8% 68.9% 69.1% 69.1% 69.0% 68.9%

Urban mileage, total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


Principal arterials, other freew ays, and expressw ays 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%


Minor arterials 10.5% 10.3% 10.1% 10.0% 9.9% 10.1%

Collectors 10.3% 10.1% 10.0% 10.3% 10.4% 10.5%

Local 70.2% 71.0% 71.4% 71.1% 71.0% 70.7%

Rural mileage, total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%



Minor arterials 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Major collectors 14.0% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1%

Minor collectors 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9%

Local 68.4% 68.3% 68.4% 68.5% 68.3% 68.3%

Table 1-6: Estimated U.S. Roadway Lane-Miles by Functional System a

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TOTAL lane-miles 8,224,245 8,251,847 8,295,171 8,315,121 8,338,821 8,371,718

Urban, total 1,915,503 1,967,047 2,006,436 2,108,650 2,199,155 2,263,360

Interstates 73,912 74,463 75,107 79,591 82,926 85,986

Other arterialsb 456,181 457,567 462,855 484,171 505,328 523,838

Collectors 188,570 189,538 190,843 207,356 217,650 225,548

Local 1,196,840 1,245,479 1,277,631 1,337,532 1,393,251 1,427,988

Rural, total 6,308,742 6,284,800 6,288,735 6,206,471 6,139,666 6,108,358

Interstates 134,587 134,638 134,570 130,384 127,889 125,564

Other arterialsb 540,457 542,337 544,011 534,278 532,045 529,555

Collectorsc 1,414,667 1,414,155 1,408,752 1,388,515 1,380,712 1,373,348

Local 4,219,031 4,193,670 4,201,402 4,153,294 4,099,020 4,079,891

c Includes minor and major collectors.

other principal arterials, and minor arterials. For rural: the sum of other principal arterials and minor arterials.

a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.b For urban: the sum of other freeways and expressways,

Table 1-6: Distribution of Estimated U.S. Roadway Lane-Miles by Functional Systema

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Urban, total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Interstates 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.4%

Other arterialsb 23.8% 23.3% 23.5% 24.6% 25.7% 26.6%

Collectors 9.8% 9.6% 9.7% 10.5% 11.1% 11.5%

Local 62.5% 63.3% 65.0% 68.0% 70.8% 72.6%

Rural, total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Interstates 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Other arterialsb 8.6% 8.6% 8.7% 8.6% 8.7% 8.7%

Collectorsc 22.4% 22.5% 22.4% 22.4% 22.5% 22.5%

Local 66.9% 66.7% 66.8% 66.9% 66.8% 66.8%

2004 Distribution

Highway, total (registered vehicles) 243,023,485 100.0%Passenger car 136,430,651 56.1%Motorcycle 5,780,870 2.4%Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle 91,845,327 37.8%Truck, single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more 6,161,028 2.5%Truck, combination 2,010,335 0.8%Bus 795,274 0.3%

SOURCES

Highway:

Motorcycle:

1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA-PL-97-009 (Washington, DC: July 1997), table MV-201.

1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA-PL-97-009 (Washington, DC: July 1997), table MV-201.

1995-2004: Ibid., Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues), table VM-1.

Passenger car:

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicles:1970-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA-PL-97-009 (Washington, DC: July 1997), table VM-201A.


Single-unit and combination trucks, and buses:


Table 1-11: Number of U.S. Highway Vehicles

1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA-PL-97-009 (Washington, DC: July 1997), table VM-201A.


2005 Distribution

Highwayb, total 2,989,807 100.0%

Passenger carb,c 1,689,965 56.5%

Motorcyclec 10,770 0.4%

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicleb 1,059,590 35.4%Truck, single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more 79,174 2.6%Truck, combination 143,662 4.8%Bus 6,646 0.2%

Table 1-32: U.S. Highway Vehicle-Miles (Millions)

SOURCES

Highway:

Passenger car and motorcycle:

1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995 , Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/summary95/index.html, as of July 28, 2000, table VM-201A.

1995-2005: Ibid., Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues), table VM-1, and Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohpi/index.htm.

Motorcycle:

1970-80: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics, Summary to 1985 (Washington, DC: 1986), table VM-201A.


Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle:



Single-unit 2-axle 6-tires or more truck, combination truck, and bus:



2004 Distribution

Highway, totalb 4,832,396 100.0%

Passenger carb,c 2,693,872 55.7%

Motorcycleb,c 12,761 0.3%

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehiclec 1,758,542 36.4%

Truck, single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more 81,107 1.7%

Truck, combination 145,398 3.0%

Busd 140,716 2.9%

Motorcycle:

1970-80: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1985 (Washington, DC: 1986), table VM-201A.

1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995 , Internet site

1995-2004: Ibid., Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues), table VM-1, and Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohpi/hss/index.htm.

SOURCES

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle:

1970-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995 , Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/summary95/index.html as of July 28, 2000, table VM-201A. 1995-2003: Ibid., Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues), table VM-1, and Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohpi/hss/index.htm.

Single-unit 2-axle 6-tires or more truck, combination truck, and bus:

Table 1-37: U.S. Highway Passenger-Miles (Millions)

1985-2004: Ibid., Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues), table VM-1, and Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohpi/hss/index.htm.

Highway:

Passenger car and motorcycle:

1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/summary95/index.html as of July 28, 2000, table 1995-2004: Ibid., Highway Statistics (Washington, DC: Annual issues), table VM-1, and Internet site http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohpi/hss/index.htm.

PERFORMANCE 2004 Distributions Overall distributionVehicle-miles of travel by functional system (millions), total j, 9 2,962,513 100.0%

Rural

Rural mileage, total 1,070,248 100.0% 36.1%Interstate 266,996 24.9% 9.0%Other principal arterial 241,046 22.5% 8.1%Minor arterial 168,898 15.8% 5.7%Major collector 200,792 18.8% 6.8%Minor collector 60,139 5.6% 2.0%Local 132,377 12.4% 4.5%

Urban

Urban mileage, total 1,892,265 100.0% 63.9%Interstate 454,385 24.0% 15.3%Other freeways and expressways 207,629 11.0% 7.0%Other principal arterial 450,142 23.8% 15.2%Minor arterial 362,018 19.1% 12.2%Collector 162,108 8.6% 5.5%Local 255,683 13.5% 8.6%

Table 4-9: Motor Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Travel2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Vehicles registered (thousands)a 225,821 235,331 234,624 236,760 237,243 241,194

Vehicle-miles traveled (millions) 2,746,925 2,797,287 2,855,508 2,890,450 2,964,788 2,989,807

Fuel consumed (million gallons) 162,554 163,478 168,682 170,069 178,536 179,100Average miles traveled per vehicle (thousands) 12.2 11.9 12.2 12.2 12.5 12.4

Average miles traveled per gallon 16.9 17.1 16.9 17 16.6 16.7Average fuel consumed per vehicle (gallons) 720 695 719 718 753 743

a Includes personal passenger vehicles, buses, and trucks.

Table 4-11: Passenger Car and Motorcycle Fuel Consumption and Travel2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Vehicles registered (thousands)

Passenger cars 133,621 137,633 135,921 135,670 136,431

Motorcycles 4,346 4,903 5,004 5,370 5,768 6,227

Vehicle-miles traveled (millions)

Passenger cars 1,600,287 1,628,332 1,658,474 1,672,079 1,699,890 1,689,965

Motorcycles 10,469 9,639 9,552 9,577 10,122 10,770

Fuel consumed (million gallons)

Passenger cars 73,065 73,559 75,471 75,455 75,402 73,870

Motorcycles 209 193 191 192 202 215

Average miles traveled per vehicle (thousands)

Passenger cars 12 12 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.4

Motorcycles 2.4 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7

Average miles traveled per gallon

Passenger cars 21.9 22.1 22 22.2 22.5 22.9

Motorcycles 50 49.9 50 50 50 50

Average fuel consumed per vehicle (gallons)

Passenger cars 547 534 555 556 553 541

Motorcycles 48 39 38 36 35 35

Table 4-12: Other 2-Axle 4-Tire Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Travel2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Vehicles registered (thousands) 79,085 84,188 85,011 87,187 91,845 95,337

Vehicle-miles traveled (millions) 923,059 943,207 966,034 984,094 1,027,164 1,059,590

Fuel consumed (million gallons) 52,939 53,522 55,220 60,758 63,417 65,419

Average miles traveled per vehicle (thousands) 11.7 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1

Average miles traveled per gallon 17.4 17.6 17.5 16.2 16.2 16.2

Average fuel consumed per vehicle (gallons) 669 636 650 697 690 686

Table 4-13: Single-Unit 2-Axle 6-Tireor More Truck Fuel Consumption and Travel

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Vehicle-miles traveled (millions) 70,500 72,448 75,866 77,757 78,441 79,174




Average fuel consumed per vehicle (gallons) 1,614 1,695 1,826 1,518 1,454 1,414

Table 4-14: Combination Truck Fuel Consumption and Travel2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Vehicle-miles traveled (millions) 135,020 136,584 138,737 140,160 142,370 143,662




Average fuel consumed per vehicle (gallons) 12,241 11,843 11,631 12,479 12,033 11,698

Table 4-22: Energy Intensity of Passenger Cars, Other 2-Axle 4-Tire Vehicles, and Motorcycles2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Vehicle-miles (millions)

Passenger car 1,600,287 1,628,332 1,658,474 1,672,079 1,699,890 1,689,965

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle 923,059 943,207 966,034 984,094 1,027,164 1,059,590

Motorcycle 10,469 9,639 9,552 9,577 10,122 10,770

Passenger-miles (millions)a

Passenger car 2,544,457 2,556,481 2,620,389 2,641,885 2,685,827 2,670,145

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle 1,467,664 1,678,853 1,674,792 1,706,103 1,780,771 1,836,988

Motorcycle 11,516 11,760 12,131 12,163 12,855 13,677

Fuel consumed (million gallons)

Passenger car 73,065 73,559 75,471 75,455 75,402 73,870

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle 52,939 53,522 55,220 60,758 63,417 65,419

Motorcycle 209 193 191 192 202 215

Energy intensity (Btu/passenger-mile)c

Passenger car 3,589 3,597 3,600 3,570 3,509 3,458

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle 4,509 3,985 4,121 4,452 4,452 4,452

Motorcycle 2,273 2,049 1,969 1,969 1,969 1,969

Table 4-5: Fuel Consumption by Highway Mode (gasoline, diesel and other fuels (million gallons))

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Passenger car and motorcycle 73,275 73,752 75,662 75,646 76,208

Other 2-axle 4-tire vehicle 52,939 53,522 55,220 60,758 62,626

Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more truck 9,563 9,667 10,321 8,880 9,263

Combination truck 25,666 25,512 26,480 23,815 24,705

Bus 1,112 1,026 1,000 969 948

Total Highw ay 162,555 163,479 168,683 170,068 173,750

Exploding the Myth of Using Renewable Ethanol as a Replacementfor Petroleum-Dependent Gasoline for Vehicle Fuel Use

FACTSa. Earth surface area = 196,940,400 square milesb. Surface area of the seven continents and all the islands of the world = 57 million square milesc. Total area of the six habitable continents (Antarctica excluded) = 52 million square milesd. Including Antarctica , over one-fifth of the globe's land mass is under water (oceans, lakes, rivers, etc.) or icee. Exposed land = 45.6 million square milesf. Land under water or ice = 11.4 million square milesg. Of the earth's 57 million square miles of land, approximately 12 million square miles are arable;the number of arable acres on Earth is 640 x 12,000,000 = 7,680,000,000; however, arable landis being lost at the rate of over 38,610 square miles = 24,710,400 acres per year (0.32175%/yr.)..h. An acre of U.S. corn yields about 7,110 pounds of corn for processing into 328 gallons of ethanol. I. The average U.S. automobile, traveling 10,000 miles a year on pure ethanol (not a gasoline-ethanol mix) would need about 852 gallons of the corn-based ethanol. This would take 11 acres to grow, based on net ethanol production. This is the same amount of cropland required to feed seven Americans.

IMPLICATIONS!. In 2005, there were 241,000,000 personal highway vehicles. Therefore the number of acres needed to supplythe ethanol required by this set of vehicles is 11 x 241,000,000 = 2,651,000,000 (2.651 billion).2. The number of Americans that would go without food would be 7 x 2,651,000,000/11 = 1,687,000,000, whichis 5.62 times the current population of 300,000,000!!!!3. The percentage of arable acres on Earth that would be needed to supply the annual ethanol required to operate the 241,000,000 personal highway vehicles in America is 34.52%!!!4. This would mean the Earth's 6.5 billion inhabitants would have only 64.5% of the arable land for food!!!

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Total rural and urban 170,389 170,506 170,598 165,948 166,973 168,076

Rural 87,869 87,397 87,343 82,413 83,186 83,428Interstate 1,346 1,345 1,353 1,357 1,362 1,357Other principal arterial 3,691 3,687 3,685 3,688 3,689 3,701Minor arterial 6,911 6,904 6,904 6,901 6,906 6,969Major arterial 13,058 13,014 13,066 13,001 13,059 13,100Minor collector 9,114 9,072 8,998 8,900 8,820 8,781Local 53,749 53,375 53,337 48,566 49,350 49,520

Urban 82,520 83,109 83,255 88,535 83,787 84,648 Interstate 1,076 1,079 1,066 1,069 1,094 1,096 Other freeways and expressways 1,328 1,334 1,399 1,397 1,375 1,343 Other principal arterial 5,860 5,854 5,836 5,844 5,832 5,939 Minor arterial 10,292 10,288 10,270 10,236 10,232 10,435 Collector 10,034 10,025 10,027 9,973 9,960 10,039 Local 53,930 54,529 54,657 55,016 55,294 55,796

Table 1-1: California Public Road Length, Miles By Functional System

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics, Washington, DC: annual editions, table HM-20, available at http:/ /www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hs00/hm20.htm as of Feb. 1, 2002.

Distribution1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Total rural and urban 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Rural 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Interstate 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%Other principal arterial 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4%Minor arterial 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 8.4%Major arterial 14.9% 14.9% 15.0% 15.8% 15.7% 15.7%Minor collector 10.4% 10.4% 10.3% 10.8% 10.6% 10.5%Local 61.2% 61.1% 61.1% 58.9% 59.3% 59.4%

Urban 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Interstate 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% Other freeways and expressways 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% Other principal arterial 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% Minor arterial 12.5% 12.4% 12.3% 11.6% 12.2% 12.3% Collector 12.2% 12.1% 12.0% 11.3% 11.9% 11.9% Local 65.4% 65.6% 65.7% 62.1% 66.0% 65.9%

Table 1-1: California Public Road Length, Miles By Functional System

Annual vehicle-miles

OCTOBER 2000 ( MILLIONS ) TABLE VM-2

RURAL URBAN

TOTAL

INT OPA MIN ART MAJ COL MIN COL LOC TOTAL INT OFE OPA MIN ART COL LOC TOTAL RURAL

RURAL URBAN and URBAN

California 15,198 16,496 9,685 9,517 4,059 3,515 58,470 60,435 46,544 51,801 43,821 14,428 24,567 241,596 300,066

California distribution 26.0% 28.2% 16.6% 16.3% 6.9% 6.0% 100.0% 25.0% 19.3% 21.4% 18.1% 6.0% 10.2% 100.0%

combined rural and urban 5.1% 5.5% 3.2% 3.2% 1.4% 1.2% 19.5% 20.1% 15.5% 17.3% 14.6% 4.8% 8.2% 80.5% 100.0%

U.S. 260,204 243,950 169,378 206,936 57,617 125,545 1,063,630 382,986 171,563 392,721 313,936 131,613 234,886 1,627,705 2,691,335

U.S. distribution 24.5% 22.9% 15.9% 19.5% 5.4% 11.8% 100.0% 23.5% 10.5% 24.1% 19.3% 8.1% 14.4% 100.0%

combined rural and urban 9.7% 9.1% 6.3% 7.7% 2.1% 4.7% 39.5% 14.2% 6.4% 14.6% 11.7% 4.9% 8.7% 60.5% 100.0%

Int = interstate Int = interstate

opa = other principal arterial ofe = other freeways and expressways

min art = minor arterial opa = other principal arterial

maj col = major collector min art = minor arterial

min col = minor collector col = collector

loc = local loc = local

Percentage of US Highway Miles, LaneMiles, and Vehicle Miles Traveled by

Functional System, 2002

Functional System MilesLane Miles

Vehicle Miles

Traveled

Interstate 0.80% 1.60% 9.80%Other Principal Arterials 2.50% 3.10% 9.00%Minor Arterial 3.50% 3.50% 6.20%Major Collector 10.80% 10.40% 7.50%Minor Collector 6.80% 6.50% 2.20%Local 52.90% 50.60% 4.90%Subtotal Rural 77.30% 75.70% 39.40%

Interstate 0.30% 0.90% 14.30%Other Freeway and Expressway 0.20% 0.50% 6.60%Other Principal Arterial 1.30% 2.30% 14.30%Minor Arterial 2.30% 2.80% 11.90%Collector 2.30% 2.30% 5.00%Local 16.20% 15.50% 8.40%Subtotal Urban 22.70% 24.30% 60.60%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Rural Areas

Urban Areas

Annual Rate

of Change2002/1993

Interstate 32,795 32,703 32,919 33,152 33,107 0.10%Other Principal Arterial 97,127 98,039 98,358 99,023 98,945 0.20%Minor Arterial 137,755 137,440 137,791 137,863 137,855 0.00%Major Collector 432,993 432,492 433,500 433,926 431,754 0.00%Minor Collector 282,853 274,750 273,043 272,477 271,371 -0.50%Local 2,123,895 2,125,054 2,141,111 2,115,293 2,106,725 -0.10%Subtotal Rural 3,107,418 3,100,478 3,116,722 3,091,733 3,079,757 -0.10%

Interstate 1,694 1,731 1,744 1,794 1,808 0.70%Other Freeway and Expressway 1,261 1,282 1,253 1,219 1,227 -0.30%Other Principal Arterial 12,570 12,432 12,477 12,474 12,590 0.00%Minor Arterial 19,200 19,538 19,635 19,800 19,926 0.40%Collector 20,973 21,301 21,338 21,535 21,813 0.40%Local 108,440 111,566 115,420 119,342 126,140 1.70%Subtotal Small Urban Areas 164,138 167,850 171,867 176,163 183,503 1.20%

Interstate 11,313 11,569 11,651 11,729 11,832 0.50%Other Freeway and Expressway 7,656 7,740 7,864 7,977 8,150 0.70%Other Principal Arterial 40,434 40,622 40,993 41,084 41,090 0.20%Minor Arterial 68,102 69,475 70,050 70,502 70,996 0.50%Collector 64,407 66,623 67,312 67,263 68,033 0.60%Local 456,134 462,537 474,044 484,650 518,309 1.40%Subtotal Urbanized Areas 648,046 658,566 671,914 683,205 718,410 1.20%Total Highway Route Miles 3,919,602 3,926,894 3,960,503 3,951,101 3,981,670 0

US Highway Route Miles by Functional System and Size of Area

1993 1995 1997

Urbanized Areas (50,000 or more in population)

2000 2002

Rural Areas (under 5,000 in population)

Small Urban Areas (5,000–49,999 in population)

Annual Rate

of Change2002/1993

Interstate 132,559 132,346 133,573 135,000 135,032 0.20%Other Principal Arterial 240,714 245,164 248,921 253,586 256,458 0.70%Minor Arterial 286,860 288,222 288,872 287,750 288,391 0.10%Major Collector 873,988 872,767 875,393 872,672 868,977 -0.10%Minor Collector 565,705 549,500 546,085 544,954 542,739 -0.50%Local 4,247,239 4,250,107 4,282,222 4,230,588 4,213,448 -0.10%Subtotal Rural 6,347,065 6,338,106 6,375,066 6,324,550 6,305,044 -0.10%

Interstate 7,141 7,269 7,365 7,626 7,776 1.00%Other Freeway and Expressway 4,741 4,828 4,747 4,627 4,685 -0.10%Other Principal Arterial 36,768 37,135 37,618 37,806 38,275 0.40%Minor Arterial 42,937 44,390 44,982 45,212 45,682 0.70%Collector 43,491 43,755 44,216 44,525 45,095 0.40%Local 216,881 223,132 230,839 238,684 252,279 1.70%Subtotal Small Urban Areas 351,959 360,509 369,767 378,482 393,793 1.30%

Interstate 62,754 64,865 65,603 67,020 68,088 0.90%Other Freeway and Expressway 34,864 35,705 36,655 37,428 38,782 1.20%Other Principal Arterial 130,769 143,572 146,585 149,224 150,250 1.60%Minor Arterial 176,130 183,595 185,273 184,199 187,512 0.70%Collector 136,305 143,517 145,927 145,313 147,020 0.80%Local 912,267 925,073 948,087 969,300 1,036,619 1.40%Subtotal Urbanized Areas 1,453,089 1,496,327 1,528,130 1,552,484 1,628,271 1.30%Total Highway Lane Miles 8,152,113 8,194,942 8,272,963 8,255,516 8,327,108

Rural Areas (under 5,000 in population)

Small Urban Areas (5,000–49,999 in population)


US Highway Lane Miles by Functional System and Size of Area

1993 1995 1997 2000 2002

US Vehicle-miles travelled (VMT) and Passenger-miles travelled (PMT) 1993-2002

(Millions of Miles)Annual

RateFunctional System of Change

2002/1993

Interstate 209,470 224,705 241,451 269,533 281,461 3.30%Other Principal Arterial 203,149 215,988 229,133 249,177 258,009 2.70%Minor Arterial 148,023 156,253 164,129 172,772 177,139 2.00%Major Collector 185,611 194,420 202,588 210,595 214,463 1.60%Minor Collector 48,579 50,386 52,809 58,183 62,144 2.80%Local 102,948 105,819 113,248 127,560 139,892 3.50%Subtotal Rural 897,779 947,571 1,003,358 1,087,820 1,133,107 2.60%

Interstate 16,297 17,310 18,393 21,059 22,578 3.70%Other Freeway and Expressway 8,353 8,854 9,251 9,892 10,442 2.50%Other Principal Arterial 51,088 53,202 55,359 58,170 59,490 1.70%Minor Arterial 36,464 39,270 40,845 43,035 44,566 2.30%Collector 17,282 18,710 19,749 20,412 21,492 2.50%Local 25,919 27,970 30,368 33,277 34,241 3.10%Subtotal Small Urban Area 155,403 165,317 173,965 185,845 192,808 2.40%

Interstate 303,324 327,329 346,376 375,088 389,903 2.80%Other Freeway and Expressway 132,344 141,980 151,231 167,833 180,199 3.50%Other Principal Arterial 298,558 313,676 332,448 342,249 351,436 1.80%Minor Arterial 236,815 251,470 263,296 283,078 297,393 2.60%Collector 96,102 104,453 111,874 116,277 122,129 2.70%Local 175,917 179,392 176,268 202,220 207,480 1.90%Subtotal Urbanized Areas 1,243,060 1,318,300 1,381,495 1,490,819 1,548,540 2.50%Total VMT 2,296,243 2,431,188 2,558,818 2,764,484 2,874,455 2.50%Total PMT 3,772,492 3,868,070 4,089,366 4,390,076 4,733,824 2.60%

Rural (under 5,000 in population)

Small Urban Area (5,000–49,999 in population)


1993 1995 1997 2000 2002

US Highway travel by system and vehicle type 1993-2002

Functional SystemAnnual

RateVehicle Type of Change

2002/1993

PV 168,282 178,973 189,869 214,532 224,375 3.20%SU 5,982 6,708 7,671 8,236 8,745 4.30%Combo 32,827 36,643 41,665 44,248 45,633 3.70%

PV 312,924 330,029 351,313 377,270 389,758 2.50%SU 11,375 12,980 13,688 13,644 14,606 2.80%Combo 23,725 24,076 25,505 28,005 27,818 1.80%

PV 302,986 314,158 341,323 366,433 383,724 2.70%SU 12,510 12,948 13,698 13,722 14,963 2.00%Combo 11,941 12,676 12,471 12,555 14,090 1.90%

PV 784,192 823,160 882,505 958,235 997,857 2.70%SU 29,867 32,636 35,057 35,602 38,314 2.80%Combo 68,493 73,395 79,641 84,808 87,541 2.80%

PV 293,045 314,422 331,343 359,592 373,957 2.70%SU 6,513 7,148 7,906 8,716 9,106 3.80%Combo 16,183 18,491 20,643 23,465 23,887 4.40%

PV 1,049,710 1,097,161 1,146,289 1,213,109 1,259,859 2.00%SU 20,403 22,921 23,930 26,182 28,467 3.80%Combo 18,450 23,565 24,300 26,747 27,215 4.40%

PV 1,342,755 1,411,583 1,477,632 1,572,701 1,633,816 2.20%SU 26,916 30,069 31,836 34,898 37,573 3.80%Combo 34,633 42,056 44,943 50,212 51,102 4.40%

PV 2,126,947 2,234,743 2,360,137 2,530,936 2,631,673 2.40%SU 56,783 62,705 66,893 70,500 75,887 3.30%Combo 103,126 115,451 124,584 135,020 138,643 3.30%PV=Passenger Vehicles (including buses and 2-axle, 4-tire vehicles)

SU=Single-Unit Trucks (6 tires or more)

Combo=Combination Trucks (trailers and semi-trailers).

Source: Highway Statistics, Summary to 1995, Tab le VM-201; Highway Statistics, Tab le VM-1, various years.

(Millions of VMT)

2002

Rural Interstate

Other Arterial

Other Rural

1993 1995 1997 2000

Total

Total Rural

Urban Interstate

Other Urban

Total Urban

2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 2002HIGHWAY 21,597.7 21,516.7 81.8% 81.2% 4.048 4.026Light vehicles 16,268.7 16,290.3 61.6% 61.5% 3.121 3.116 Cars 9,254.7 9,390.9 35.0% 35.5% 1.776 1.797 Light trucks 6,990.2 6,875.5 26.5% 26.0% 1.341 1.315 Motorcycles 23.8 23.9 0.1% 0.1% 0.005 0.005Buses 186.8 191.6 0.7% 0.7% 0.032 0.033 Transit 89.2 90.9 0.3% 0.3% 0.015 0.016 Intercity 28.3 29.2 0.1% 0.1% 0.005 0.005 School 69.3 71.5 0.3% 0.3% 0.012 0.012Medium/heavy trucks 5,142.2 5,034.8 19.5% 19.0% 0.895 0.876NONHIGHWAY 4,808.0 4,965.8 18.2% 18.8% 0.666 0.689Air 2,217.3 2,212.9 8.4% 8.4% 0.392 0.391 General aviation 141.4 141.5 0.5% 0.5% 0.026 0.026 Domestic air carriers 1,749.4 1,734.5 6.6% 6.6% 0.308 0.306 International air 326.5 336.9 1.2% 1.3% 0.058 0.059Water 1,032.0 1,204.4 3.9% 4.5% 0.173 0.201 Freight 828.4 1,001.4 3.1% 3.8% 0.135 0.163 Recreational 203.6 203.0 0.8% 0.8% 0.038 0.038Pipeline 933.1 935.3 3.5% 3.5% 0.004 0.003Rail 625.6 613.2 2.4% 2.3% 0.096 0.094 Freight (Class I) 533.9 520.3 2.0% 2.0% 0.092 0.089 Passenger 91.7 92.9 0.3% 0.4% 0.005 0.005 Transit 48.7 49.3 0.2% 0.2% 0.001 0.001 Commuter 26.3 25.8 0.1% 0.1% 0.002 0.002 Intercity 16.7 17.8 0.1% 0.1% 0.002 0.002HWY & NONHWY TOTAL 26,405.70 26,482.50 100.00% 100.00% 4.714 4.715

Trillion Btu based on Btus equivalent

Table 2.5 Transportation Energy Use by Mode, 2002–2003Billion barrels per

Percentage of total year crude oil

Transportation energy use by mode, 1999 - 2000Billion barrels per yearThousand barrels per dayPercentage of total

crude oil equivalentcrude oil equivalentbased on btusTrillion btu200019992000199920001999200019993.873.8510,607.710,549.075.5%76.4%20,728.8 20,609.6 HIGHWAY 3.003.018,216.48,242.357.2%58.5%15,705.5 15,764.7 Light vehicles:1.741.744,756.44,780.433.1%33.9%9,081.7 9,133.6 Automobiles1.261.263,446.33,448.124.0%24.5%6,597.6 6,604.6 Light trucks0.010.0113.713.80.1%0.1%26.226.5Motorcycles 0.030.0395.694.70.8%0.8%211.1207.4Buses:0.020.0243.742.80.4%0.4%101.497.7Transit0.010.0115.715.70.1%0.1%33.433.4Intercity0.010.0136.236.20.3%0.3%76.376.3School 0.840.812,295.72,212.017.5%17.2%4,813.1 4,637.5 Medium/Heavy Trucks:0.160.16449.3442.53.4%3.4%943.7928.6OFF-HIGHWAY 0.070.06181.4174.11.4%1.4%383367.6Construction 0.100.10267.9268.42.0%2.1%560.7561Agriculture 0.830.782,283.02,125.121.1%20.1%5,785.2 5,423.8 NONHIGHWAY 0.450.441,233.91,196.39.3%9.2%2,548.6 2,470.8 Air:0.030.0387.085.60.6%0.6%175.1172.1General aviation0.350.34968.3939.57.3%7.2%2,004.0 1,944.3 Domestic air carriers0.070.06178.6171.21.3%1.3%369.5354.4International air 0.290.24786.4661.76.3%5.3%1,720.4 1,434.6 Water:0.230.18624.0499.95.1%4.2%1,409.2 1,124.5 Freight0.060.06162.4161.81.1%1.2%311.2310.1Recreational 0.000.008.19.93.3%3.4%910.9911.8Pipeline:0.090.09254.6257.22.2%2.2%605.3606.6Rail:0.090.09242.7244.61.9%1.9%516520Freight0.000.0011.912.60.3%0.3%89.386.6Passenger0.000.001.61.80.2%0.2%47.244.7Transit0.000.005.15.40.1%0.1%25.925.7Commuter0.000.005.25.40.1%0.1%16.216.2Intercity 4.874.7913,340.013,116.6100.0%100.0%27,457.7 26,962.0 TOTAL

Passenger Cars, 1999–2000average annualFuel economyFuel useVehicle travelRegistrations

travel(miles per gallon)(million gallons)(million miles)(thousands)Year11,84821.473,2831,569,100132,432199911,9882272,9161,601,914133,6212000

Two-Axle, Four-Tire Trucks, 1999–2000Year

11,9571752,859901,02275,356199911,68417.552,832924,01879,0852000

Other Single-Unit Trucks, 1999–2000Year

12,1997.59,37270,3045,763199911,9117.49,54870,5835,9262000

Combination Trucks, 1999–2000Year

65,2465.424,537132,3842,029199964,4775.325,645135,2082,0972000

B blsM blsper yearper day

7.1919.7U.S. petroleum consumption in 20004.7412.99By the transportation sector

65.94Percent used by transportation sector27.7576.02World petroleum consumption

U.S. petroleum consumption as 25.91Percent of world roleum consumption

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Domestic production, totala (R) 2.82 (R) 2.80 (R) 2.78 (R) 2.70 2.64

Crude oilb 2.12 2.12 2.10 2.07 1.98Natural gas plant liquids 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.63 0.66

Gross imports, total 4.18 4.33 4.21 4.48 4.71

Crude oilb,c 3.31 3.40 3.34 3.53 3.66

Petroleum productsd 0.87 0.93 0.87 0.95 1.04Exports 0.38 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38

U.S. net importse 3.80 3.98 3.85 4.10 4.33

U.S. petroleum consumption 7.19 7.17 7.21 7.31 7.49

By the transportation sector 4.75 4.72 (E) 4.79 (E) 4.83 UTransportation petroleum use a percent of domestic petroleum production (R) 168.3 (R) 168.7 (R) 172.1 (R) 179.0 UTransportation petroleum use a percent of domestic petroleum consumption 66.0 65.8 66.4 66.1 U

World petroleum consumption 28.09 28.51 28.63 (R) 29.16 30.16

U.S. petroleum consumption as percent of world petroleum consumption 25.6 25.2 25.2 (R) 25.1 24.8KEY: E = estimate; R = revised; U = data are unavailable.

Table 4-1: Overview of U.S. Petroleum Production, Imports, Exports, and Consumption (Billion barrels per year)

World Consumption of Primary Energy, 2001(Quadrillion Btu)

Percent38.9%156.48Petroleum 23.2%93.11Natural Gas23.9%95.94Coal 6.7%26.85Hydroelectric Power6.6%26.45Nuclear Electric Power0.8%3.11Geothermal, Solar, Wind, Other

401.94TOTAL ENERGY

Petroleum (38.93%)

Hydroelectric Power (6.68%)Nuclear Electric Power (6.58%)

Geothermal, Solar, Wind, Other (0.77%)

Coal (23.87%)

Natural Gas (23.17%)

World Consumption of Primary Energy, 2001

Proven Reserves: Jan. 1, 2001 (Oil & Gas Journal)(in billions of barrels)

cumulative %% of total25.5%25.5%261.7Saudi Arabia36.4%10.9%112.5Iraq45.9%9.5%97.8U.A.E.55.3%9.4%96.5Kuwait64.0%8.7%89.7Iran71.5%7.5%76.9Venezuela76.2%4.7%48.6Russia79.1%2.9%29.5Libya81.9%2.8%28.3Mexico84.2%2.3%24China86.4%2.2%22.5Nigeria88.5%2.1%22U.S.

100.0%11.5%118.1Others100.0%1,028.1Total

Energy Information Administration World Petroleum Consumption, 1990-1999 (Billions of Barrels per Year)

1999199819971996199519941993199219911990Region/CountryNorth America

0.705550.678540.677810.655910.640580.630360.616120.599700.592030.61685Canada7.124446.904716.796306.682796.469636.467076.291516.217056.100616.20062United States0.722700.707740.684740.644960.630720.656640.625610.630720.620870.61503Other8.552688.290988.158857.983657.740927.754067.533247.447467.313517.43250Total

Central & South America 1.806391.773541.695431.626081.550521.478251.418761.368021.333711.31072Total

Western Europe 5.402005.469535.374995.301635.236665.042485.011825.051974.985904.83479Total

Eastern Europe & Former U.S.S.R. 1.792881.813321.841431.888152.073572.148032.449152.887153.443413.54963Total

Middle East 1.614761.583741.546871.489571.484461.438471.378971.307071.232241.23261Total

Africa 0.920900.899000.887680.861040.840600.818700.805560.791690.777820.75774Total

Far East & Oceania 7.250737.048887.160216.914936.578766.244425.856065.513335.208194.96218Total

27.3403326.8789726.6654426.0650225.5054724.9243924.4535424.3666724.2947724.08015World Total

(percentage distribution)1999199819971996199519941993199219911990Region/Country

North America 2.6%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.6%Canada

26.1%25.7%25.5%25.6%25.4%25.9%25.7%25.5%25.1%25.7%United States2.6%2.6%2.6%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%Other

31.3%30.8%30.6%30.6%30.4%31.1%30.8%30.6%30.1%30.9%TotalCentral & South America

6.6%6.6%6.4%6.2%6.1%5.9%5.8%5.6%5.5%5.4%TotalWestern Europe

19.8%20.3%20.2%20.3%20.5%20.2%20.5%20.7%20.5%20.1%TotalEastern Europe & Former U.S.S.R.

6.6%6.7%6.9%7.2%8.1%8.6%10.0%11.8%14.2%14.7%TotalMiddle East

5.9%5.9%5.8%5.7%5.8%5.8%5.6%5.4%5.1%5.1%TotalAfrica

3.4%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.2%3.2%3.1%TotalFar East & Oceania

26.5%26.2%26.9%26.5%25.8%25.1%23.9%22.6%21.4%20.6%Total100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%World Total

Figure 1.5. Refinery Gross Output by World Region, 2001

Do Plastics Use Up Petroleum? Ninety percent of petroleum is used for fuel. Only about 5% is used by the petrochemical industry, and 3-5% is used to make plastics. These plastics serve to make our cars and planes lighter, and in doing so, save more oil than needed to make them. If we in-creased car fuel consumption efficiency only 5%, a readily achievable goal using present-day technology, we would save more oil than the entire plastics industry uses. Petroleum is a resource resulting produced over millions of years from vegetable matter, which originally got its energy from the sun through photosynthesis. Thus, we are using up this accumulated storehouse of energy in a relatively short period of time. It will run out, sooner or later. Just when this will happen is controversial. However, in the long run, petroleum will become more scarce and its cost will rise. As this hap-pens, industry will divert its efforts to using a greater fraction for plastics and less for fuel, since such is more profitable. As a result, the use of petroleum as a source for plastics will be less sensitive to the forthcoming shortage of petroleum than will be its use for fuel. Even if petroleum for making plastics becomes more scarce and expensive, there are alternatives. Plastics can be made from natural gas, coal, or biomass. Technology for this exists today, but it is not widely employed. Currently, it is still cheaper to make plastics from petroleum, and it will probably be so for quite a while. Some day it may not be, and we should be and are thinking about these alternatives.

Vehicle population includes passenger and commercial vehicles.

1960 1980 2000 2020

Industrialized 110 327 538 619Developing 17 73 216 497World 127 400 754 1,116

Industrialized 300 711 954 1040Developing 15 42 78 127World 84 182 226 248

Vehicle Population (1,000,000s)

Vehicles per Driving Age Population (vehicles/1,000)

World Vehicle Population, 1960-2020

Annual consumption in billions of barrels of petroleum forall the world's vehicles assuming mpg's (miles per gallon)

per vehicle of 10 (SUV-LIKE), 20 and 30, and assumingannual travel per vehicle of 12,000 miles

Year # vehicles at 10 mpg at 20 mpg at 30 mpg2000 754 M 47.61 23.81 15.882020 1,116 M 70.49 35.24 23.502000 225 M (USA) 14.21 7.11 4.74

2003 USA reserves: 22 billion barrels

Number ofPopulationRangeAgglomerations387,191,900[10M to 32M]25204,077,500[5M to 10M}30375,949,100[2M to 10M]122313,198,000[1M to 2M]228283,823,200[0.5M to 1M]411

1,564,239,700totals816

World Urban population (thousands) 2000-2030

United Nations Population Division

Urban population Year3,183,12320053,516,02520103,864,05820154,215,06820204,560,83220254,896,3822030

THE ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL&GAS

Dr Colin Campbell

Colin:"Understanding depletion is simple. Think of an Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty. There are only so many more drinks to closing time. It’s the

same with oil. We have to find the bar before we can drink what’s in it.

By Richard Heinberg

"Industrial nations’ fossil-

fueled joyride is about to end . . .

is anyone prepared?"

The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies

By Richard Heinberg Foreword by Colin J. Campbell

The world is about to run out of cheap oil and change dramatically. Within the next few years, global production will peak. Thereafter, even if industrial societies begin to switch to alternative energy sources, they will have less net energy each year to do all the work essential to the survival of complex societies. We are entering a new era, as different from the industrial era as the latter was from medieval times.

In The Party's Over, Richard Heinberg places this momentous transition in historical context, showing how industrialism arose from the harnessing of fossil fuels, how competition to control access to oil shaped the geopolitics of the 20th century, and how contention for dwindling energy resources in the 21st century will lead to resource wars in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South America. He describes the likely impacts of oil depletion, and all of the energy alternatives. Predicting chaos unless the U.S. -- the world's foremost oil consumer -- is willing to join with other countries to implement a global program of resource conservation and sharing, he also recommends a "managed collapse" that might make way for a slower-paced, low-energy, sustainable society in the future.

More readable than other accounts of this issue, with fuller discussion of the context, social implications, and recommendations for personal, community, national, and global action, Heinberg's book is a riveting wake-up call for humankind as the oil era winds down, and a critical tool for understanding and influencing current U.S. foreign policy.

"The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies"

by Richard Heinberg ISBN 0-86571-482-7 www.newsociety.comHeinberg explores aspects of the coming energy crunch most of

us have never thought of, such as the dysfunctionality of a financial system based on borrowing and compound interest in a world where energy availability is no longer growing.

Biological systems and ecology ultimately boil down to an exchange of energy. Heinberg examines entropy,ecological succession, pioneer species, climax ecosystems, population blooms and diebacks, evolution and extinction. He then applies these same principles to understanding the rise and decline of human cultures throughout history.

The key concept is net energy, or energy profit. It takes energy to acquire energy. It requires energy to pump oil, mine coal or manufacture solar panels. The question has to be: do you get more energy in return than you exerted in the process of acquiring it? Obviously if you end up losing more energy in the process than you gain (an energy sink) the process can't continue. For example, oil fields that are near the surface tend to have a high energy profit because comparatively little energy needs to be expended to extract the oil relative to it's energy content. That oil is therefore "cheap" in both dollar and energy cost. However as the field becomes drained or new fields are discovered that are deeper or otherwise more remote and difficult to access, their energy profit will be lower because more energy needs to be spent in the extraction process. This oil will then be more "expensive." Most of the "cheap" oil left in the world is concentrated in the Persian Gulf, and to a lesser degree the Caspian Sea region, parts of Africa, South America and the South China Sea. The author also examines other energy sources including coal and other fossil fuels as well as nuclear and renewables. All contain less net energy than oil.

In 1956 petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert accurately predicted US domestic oil production would hit it's peak around 1970 and decline thereafter (see Scientific American March 1998 "The End of Cheap Oil"). Ever since 1970 the US has grown increasingly dependent on importing more oil from foreign sources. Hubbert's followers have predicted the peak in global oil production is not that far off, probably around the 2006-2015 range. Once the global oil peak has passed the net energy available to human society will begin to shrink.

Yet the author is not a fatalistic doomsayer. He believes a steady state society (climax ecosystem) is entirely possible, but cautions that the prospects of getting to there from here will be extremely difficult and are becoming progressively more so the more we continue to delay. A central point is that energy will be required in order to construct a post-fossil fuel infrastructure that can be supported by renewables. We have a very narrow and rapidly shrinking window of opportunity that we are frittering away trying to support the status quo. Even if the predicted time frame for the oil peak should be off by several decades, the same pattern holds.

A tour of the book's contentsChapter 1: Energy, Nature and Society is a general discussion of energy in nature and human societies. The central role of energy has played in the past is examined together with speculation about how it will shape the fate of nations in the decades ahead. This chapter is a brief guided tour through the fields of ecology, cultural anthropology, and history with energy as our tour guide.Chapter 2: Party Time: The Historic Interval of Cheap Abundant Energy traces the history of the industrial era from the European's first use of coal in the 12 th-century to the 20th-century miracles of petroleum and electricity with their cascading streams of inventions and conveniences.Chapter 3: Lights Out: Approaching the Historic Interval's End is the informational core of the book. In it we learn to assess oil reserves and review estimates of current reserves and extraction rates. Among other things, the chapter explores the question: Why do the petroleum-reserve estimates of independent geologists diverge so far from those of government agencies like the US Geological Survey?Chapter 4: Non-Petroleum Energy Sources: Can the Party Continue?... explores the available alternative to oil: from coal and natural gas to solar power, wind and hydrogen, including cold fusion and "fringe" free-energy devices.Chapter 5: A Banquet of Consequences discusses the meaning and the implications of the approaching peak in fossil-fuel production. It discusses the connections between petroleum dependence, world food systems, and the global economy. Also highlighted is the competition for dwindling supplies of petroleum with the consequent resource wars that we are already seeing in, for example, Iraq. Chapter 6: Managing the Collapse: Strategies and Recommendations addresses the vital question: What can we do? What can we do individually, as communities, as a nation, and globally? It explores solutions, from the simple practical steps any of us can take to policy recommendations for world leaders.The Party's Over is essential reading for all those concerned with the future of modern life as we know it. It is book that is more than theory and argument. It is full of very useful resources to help the individual make informed choices and perhaps even make a small difference.

Table 11998 passenger car data (U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration)

131,839,000Number of vehicles:1,545,830,000,000Vehicle miles travelled:

(equivalent to 3,800,473,664 barrels of crude)72,209,000,000Fuel consumed (gallons):1 barrel crude yields11,725Average miles travelled per vehicle:

19 gals fuel(1998 base mpg)21.41Average mpg per vehicle:# years to save548Average fuel consumed per vehicle:

3.2 billion barrelsof crudeFuel consumption at newAnnual savingsAnnual savingsPercentage increaseIncrease in baseNew average mpg

at new mpgmpg (in barrels of crude)(barrels crude)(gallons)in 1998 base mpgmpg per vehicleper vehicle18.873,630,868,128169,605,5563,222,505,5644.67%1.0022.419.853,475,753,993324,719,6916,169,674,1329.34%2.0023.416.853,333,350,110467,123,5748,875,347,90514.01%3.0024.415.353,202,155,725598,317,95911,368,041,22618.68%4.0025.414.453,080,897,403719,576,28113,671,949,34423.36%5.0026.412.642,590,429,2191,210,044,46522,990,844,83146.71%10.0031.412.042,234,676,4741,565,797,21129,750,147,00370.07%15.0036.411.741,964,838,3231,835,635,36134,877,071,85693.42%20.0041.411.561,753,145,2742,047,328,41038,899,239,799116.78%25.0046.411.441,582,631,4582,217,842,22642,139,002,298140.14%30.0051.411.361,442,346,4512,358,127,23344,804,417,431163.49%35.0056.411.291,324,906,2932,475,567,39147,035,780,433186.85%40.0061.411.241,225,150,8502,575,322,83448,931,133,854210.20%45.0066.411.201,139,365,2472,661,108,43750,561,060,309233.56%50.0071.411.171,064,806,9922,735,666,69351,977,667,158256.92%55.0076.411.14999,407,3592,801,066,32553,220,260,184280.27%60.0081.411.12941,576,4522,858,897,23354,319,047,421303.63%65.0086.411.10890,072,2432,910,401,44155,297,627,388326.98%70.0091.411.08843,910,3662,956,563,31856,174,703,038350.34%75.0096.411.07802,300,5972,998,173,08756,965,288,660373.70%80.00101.411.05764,601,2363,035,872,44857,681,576,513397.05%85.00106.411.04730,285,7853,070,187,89958,333,570,090420.41%90.00111.411.03698,918,2013,101,555,48458,929,554,188443.77%95.00116.411.02670,134,2733,130,339,41159,476,448,813467.12%100.00121.411.01643,627,4163,156,846,26859,980,079,100490.48%105.00126.411.01619,137,7053,181,335,97960,445,383,610513.83%110.00131.411.00596,443,3253,204,030,35960,876,576,818537.19%115.00136.410.99575,353,8363,225,119,84861,277,277,120560.55%120.00141.41

The LA Times, November 15, 2003, reported a Republican bill proposal to promote more domestic drilling for oil, natural gas, and coal, and to promote the development of more nuclear energy.

President Bush in a statement on the energy bill:

“America will be safer and stronger

with a national energy policy that

will help keep the lights on, the

furnaces lit and the factories running.”

FARELESS URBAN MASS TRANSIT

FUMTS

The Fareless Urban Mass Transit system is the single most effective way of solving the universal transportation quagmire:

• enormous waste and a staggering exhaustion of the rapidly diminishing non-renewable petroleum resources on Earth;

• unhealthful air quality, resulting in death and impaired health for tens of thousands, and contributing to global warming;

• pervasive and constantly increasing daily gridlock traffic conditions extending well beyond rush hour time frames of 15 or more hours, resulting in millions of wasted hours daily by millions of passengers;

• high accident occurrences, resulting in death and injury and extensive, expensive property damage and medical costs for thousands;

• staggeringly expensive vehicle insurance, maintenance, operational and acquisition costs for the hundreds of millions of licensed drivers who own hundreds of millions of vehicles;

• enormous road/street maintenance costs and waste of fossil energy for road construction and maintenance;

• ubiquitous parking space/parking lot congestion and expense for millions;

• unhealthful high and constant noise pollution, especially damaging to those in the vicinity of freeways and main roads.

ONE THING IS ABSOLUTE: if the multi millions of personal vehicles in any urban region were instantaneously replaced by pollution-free vehicles, say electric or fuel cell powered vehicles, we would not eliminate the problems listed above, except to help with pollution!! Ever-increasing gridlock is ever-increasing gridlock, enormous petroleum and energy waste is enormous petroleum and energy waste, enfeebling wasted time is enfeebling wasted time, and staggeringly expensive costs are staggeringly expensive costs by any other euphemisms.

A transit system that enables and induces almost everyone to use it must have the following attributes:

• all must have quick access to it;

• for most passengers, the time required for each trip must be the same or less than that required by using one’s private vehicle;

• the net cost to each public transit user should be much less than the cost incurred by using his/her private vehicle for trips;

• all of the “quagmire” problems described should be substantially alleviated or eliminated.

A public transit system that is fare-free for every user induces and enables everyone to use public transit for most or all of their trips. Its use eliminates the nuisance and unnecessary bureaucracy of fare transactions, transfers, and the other impediments of fare-based systems.

The establishment of a mass transit, fare-free, system for urban regions can be financed easily by a method that literally involves no cost to 99% of the citizens. The proposed method for financing a fare-free mass transit system for SCR and, indeed, for all large urban regions in California and the USA, is simple and effective. The source of income is to come from a minuscule annual tax on the net wealth of the wealthiest one percent of the appropriate adult population. In California, the wealthiest one percent of the California adult population has over $2.5 trillion in net wealth. An annual tax of only 0.48% on this amount would yield over $11.94 billion annually; this is more than enough to finance a fare-free all-bus system that would yield the annual California passenger miles traveled for all urban regions in the state! For the entire USA, the wealthiest one percent has over $25 trillion in net wealth! An annual tax of only 0.35% on this amount would yield $86.6 billion annually; this is more than enough to finance a fare-free all-bus system that would yield the annual USA passenger miles traveled for all urban regions in the USA! Such minuscule assessments would pose little, if any, hindrance at undermining the staggering magnitude of this wealth. Even though a fare-free mass transit system may not sit well with the major reapers of profit (the petroleum, auto and insurance industries) in our drastically antiquated current mode of transportation, the enormity of our common, long-standing and exponentially worsening traffic problems demands a solution for the many rather than a status-quo subjugation to the powerful few.

A public transit system that is fare-free for every user induces and enables everyone to use public transit for most or all of their trips. Its use eliminates the nuisance and unnecessary bureaucracy of fare transactions, transfers, and the other impediments of fare-based systems. As already mentioned above, the financial resources available in California and in the United States for this type of system, as well as the savings that would accrue to the body of all passengers, are staggering. Yet another mind-boggling example of enormous wealth will drive home the point. In 2006, Forbes published the combined wealth of the 400 richest Americans; it topped $1.25 TRILLION, and ALL of the members of the list were billionaires! The latter sum would finance a fare-free all-bus system (cost: $86.6 billion annually) for the urban residents of the USA (=95% of the population) for 14.4 years; if only 6.9% of this wealth were to be assessed annually, then that would finance this system for the indefinite future!

For SCR, urban California, and urban USA, we give the analysis that compares the costs, fuel consumption and pollution output of the proposed all-bus system with the current (nearly)all-auto system.

Consider a frequently encountered scenario on any of our freeways during the usual extended time frame (at least 15 hours daily) of gridlock conditions. Suppose there are four lanes (one direction) and that the all-auto mode prevails; suppose further that a 20 mile one-way stretch contains 16,896 autos (4,224 each lane) traveling 20mph with an unsafe separation of only 10 feet (safe separation requires at least 30 feet). There will, of course, be frequent stops followed by the accordion/wave phenomenon inherent in such unsafe traffic conditions. It will take each of the 16,896 passengers (average auto occupancy is only slightly more than one per auto) one hour to travel the 20 mile distance. The fuel used will be 16,896 gallons (assuming the average fuel consumption is 20 m/gal for each auto) and the cost for each motorist (@ $0.50 per mile) will be $10.00! Let us examine the consequences of the requirement that the travel time for transporting 16,896 passengers in the all-bus mode (50 per bus) for the 20 mile stretch shall be only 20 minutes (not one hour!). This will require only 338 buses, each traveling 60mph with a safe separation of 262.5 feet (more than the safe separation amount of 1.5 x 60 = 90 feet), with a total fuel consumption of only 1,454 gallons (4.649 m/gal average) – only 8.6% of the fuel used by the fleet of 16,896 autos– and with a cost for each of the 16,896 bus passengers of only $0.62 – 6.3% of what it would cost if each passenger used an auto!! The waiting time for each bus is 3 seconds.

The average all-inclusive cost for non-commercial vehicles (fuel, oil, maintenance, tires, insurance, depreciation, finance charges, license/registration/taxes) is 62 cents per mile (composite data from AAA), and the average fuel consumption is 20 miles per gallon (source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics). The all-inclusive cost of running a diesel bus (administrative, labor, capital, fuel, oil, maintenance, tires, insurance, depreciation, finance charges, license/registration/taxes) is $93 per hour (we round this out to $100 per hour), and the average fuel consumption is 4.649 miles per gallon (source: analysis section of the Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA)).

NOTATION: MT = miles travelled; V = vehicle; P = passenger; D = daily; A = annualSCR: Southern California Region, the 5 counties of Los Angeles, Ventura, Oranfe, San Bernardino, Riverside

BUS CARRYING CAPACITY AND COST FOR THE URBAN ROADS IN SCR EXCLUDING LOCAL ROADS (50 PASSENGERS PER BUS)18 HOUR OPERATING PERIOD: 5AM TO 11PM

Hourly capacity (i.e., passenger miles per hour), C, at v mph (each bus), b buses per mile:TOTALSC = 50 x b x # bi-directional road miles x v

ColMAOPAOFEInt13,996.084,564.105,086.963,281.22501.82561.98 Total miles27,992.169,128.2010,173.926,562.441,003.641,123.96bi-directional road miles

3030405555v (mph)0.0800.2700.4001.5502.100b

1,095,3844,120,4385,249,9524,278,0166,490,869C382,223,84619,716,91274,167,87794,499,13677,004,279116,835,642 18 hour (=daily) capacity

25.007.413.750.700.52wait time between buses in minutes = 60/v*b10,0187302,7472,6251,5562,360#buses operating for 18 hrs30,0542,1918,2417,8754,6677,081#buses operating in three six-hour shifts

180,32713,14549,44547,25028,00242,486#bus hours over 18 hour period18,032,667$1,314,461$4,944,525$4,724,957$2,800,156$4,248,569$ 18 hour cost at $100/hr

6,581,923,499$479,778,192$1,804,751,669$1,724,609,232$1,022,056,794$1,550,727,612$Annual cost2005 URBAN SCR ALL VEHICLE DATA

373,445,00619,065,67271,056,11393,973,17375,782,258113,567,790DVMT = DPMT (approximately)136,307,427,0486,958,970,28025,935,481,06334,300,208,07227,660,524,19341,452,243,441AVMT = APMT (approximately)

Annual bus travel2,790,234,074143,933,458541,425,501689,843,693562,131,237852,900,187=365 x v x #buses operating 18 hrs x 18

Annual bus fuel concumption (gallons)600,179,40930,960,090116,460,637148,385,393120,914,441183,458,848=annual bus travel/4.649mpg

Average annual cost Fare-free bus92% of all-vehicle URBAN VMT is from non-commercial vehicles; from AAA composite,$364.04per SCR capita (18.08 million):system costs:$0.62 per mile is cost of owning and operating a non-commercial vehicle;

$1.00Average daily cost per capita:Annual non-commercial vehicle cost = 0.92xTOTAL AVMTx$0.62Annual cost as a percentage of the 77,749,756,388$

$2.5 trillion of net wealth held by the Urban non-commercial vehicles average 20 miles per gallon;0.26%richest 1% of CaliforniansAnnual urban non-commercial fuel consumption=0.92xAVMT/20

6,270,141,644 gallons

BUS CARRYING CAPACITY AND COST FOR THE URBAN ROADS IN CALIFORNIA EXCLUDING LOCAL ROADS (50 PASSENGERS PER BUS)18 HOUR OPERATING PERIOD: 5AM TO 11PM


ColMAOPAOFEInt30,311.2811,028.4610,455.596,198.471,494.011,134.75 Total miles60,622.5622,056.9220,911.1812,396.942,988.022,269.50bi-directional road miles

3030405555v (mph)0.0810.2400.3601.0201.700b

2,679,9167,528,0258,925,7978,381,39610,609,913C686,250,82848,238,484135,504,446160,664,342150,865,130190,978,425 18 hour (=daily) capacity

24.698.334.171.070.64wait time between buses in minutes = 60/v*b18,1741,7875,0194,4633,0483,858#buses operating for 18 hrs54,5225,36015,05613,3899,14311,574#buses operating in three six-hour shifts

327,13432,15990,33680,33254,86069,447#bus hours over 18 hour period32,713,421$3,215,899$9,033,630$8,033,217$5,486,005$6,944,670$ 18 hour cost at $100/hr

11,940,398,496$1,173,803,112$3,297,274,862$2,932,124,249$2,002,391,723$2,534,804,550$Annual cost2005 CA URBAN ALL VEHICLE DATA

680,357,28848,121,479132,781,096159,079,534149,735,342190,639,836DVMT = DPMT (approximately)248,330,410,00017,564,340,00048,465,100,00058,064,030,00054,653,400,00069,583,540,000AVMT = APMT (approximately)

Annual bus travel5,009,631,042352,140,933989,182,4591,172,849,7001,101,315,4481,394,142,502=365 x v x #buses operating 18 hrs x 18

Annual bus fuel concumption (gallons)1,077,571,74575,745,522212,773,168252,279,996236,892,976299,880,082=annual bus travel/4.649mpg

Average annual cost Fare-free bus92% of all-vehicle URBAN VMT is from non-commercial vehicles; from AAA composite,$316.72per CA capita (37.7 million):system costs:$0.62 per mile is cost of owning and operating a non-commercial vehicle;


$2.5 trillion of net wealth held by the Urban non-commercial vehicles average 20 miles per gallon;0.48%richest 1% of CaliforniansAnnual urban non-commercial fuel consumption=0.92xAVMT/20

11,423,198,860 gallons

BUS CARRYING CAPACITY AND COST FOR THE URBAN ROADS IN USA EXCLUDING LOCAL ROADS (50 PASSENGERS PER BUS)18 HOUR OPERATING PERIOD: 5AM TO 11PM


ColMAOPAOFEInt295,848106,109.00101,673.0061,803.0010,560.0015,703.00 Total miles591,696212,218203,346123,60621,12031,406bi-directional road miles

3030405555v (mph)0.0810.2000.2900.5700.830b

25,784,48761,003,80071,691,48033,105,60071,684,195C4,738,852,116464,120,7661,098,068,4001,290,446,640595,900,8001,290,315,510 18 hour (=daily) capacity

24.6910.005.171.911.31wait time between buses in minutes = 60/v*b131,81017,19040,66935,84612,03826,067#buses operating for 18 hrs395,43051,569122,008107,53736,11578,201#buses operating in three six-hour shifts

2,372,580309,414732,046645,223216,691469,206#bus hours over 18 hour period237,257,960$30,941,384$73,204,560$64,522,332$21,669,120$46,920,564$ 18 hour cost at $100/hr

86,599,155,546$11,293,605,306$26,719,664,400$23,550,651,180$7,909,228,800$17,126,005,860$Annual cost2005 USA URBAN ALL VEHICLE DATA

4,617,334,247460,378,0821,017,512,3291,268,767,123585,553,4251,285,123,288DVMT = DPMT (approximately)1,685,327,000,000168,038,000,000371,392,000,000463,100,000,000213,727,000,000469,070,000,000AVMT = APMT (approximately)

Annual bus travel34,593,620,4473,388,081,5928,015,899,3209,420,260,4724,350,075,8409,419,303,223=365 x v x #buses operating 18 hrs x 18

Annual bus fuel concumption (gallons)7,441,088,502728,776,4231,724,220,1162,026,298,230935,701,4072,026,092,326=annual bus travel/4.649mpg

Average annual cost Fare-free bus92% of all-vehicle URBAN VMT is from non-commercial vehicles; from AAA composite,$288.66per USA capita (300 million):system costs:$0.62 per mile is cost of owning and operating a non-commercial vehicle;


$25 trillion of net wealth held by the Urban non-commercial vehicles average 20 miles per gallon;0.35%richest 1% of US weathholdersAnnual urban non-commercial fuel consumption=0.92xAVMT/20

77,525,042,000 gallons

COMPARISON OF MODES OF TRANSPORTATION: ALL AUTO* VERSUS ALL FARE-FREE BUS MODES

ANNUAL COSTAnnual Cost Savings:For every $1 of Ratio:All fare-freeAll auto mode

annual auto cost bus cost, autobus cost tobus modeminus annual bus costcost is:auto costUrban region(s):

71,167,832,890$$11.818.47%6,581,923,499$77,749,756,388$SCR129,707,267,368$$11.868.43%11,940,398,496$141,647,665,864$California874,711,365,254$$11.109.01%86,599,155,546$961,310,520,800$USA

ANNUAL FUEL CONSUMPTION (GALLONS)Annual Fuel Savings:For every gallonRatio:All fare-freeAll auto mode

annual bus useof bus fuel use,bus fuel use tobus modeminus auto useauto fuel use is:auto fuel use

5,669,962,23510.459.57%600,179,4096,270,141,644SCR10,345,627,11510.609.43%1,077,571,74511,423,198,860California70,083,953,49810.429.60%7,441,088,50277,525,042,000USA

Equivalent savings in ANNUAL POLLUTION COMPARISONbarrels of crude***Ratio**Annual auto milesAnnual bus miles

298,419,065SCR10.24%136,307,427,0482,790,234,074SCR544,506,690California10.09%248,330,410,0005,009,631,042California

3,688,629,131USA10.26%1,685,327,000,00034,593,620,447USA

*Here, "auto" means "non-commercial vehicle"**Assumes a bus pollutes 5 times as much as an auto per mile;the ratio of the annual bus pollution to the annual auto pollution is5 x #annual bus miles traveled / #annual auto miles travelled***1 barrel crude yields gallons of gasoline

Fareless Urban Mass Transit results for SCR, California and USA:

1). The annual cost of the all-bus mode is only 8.47% to 9.01% of the annual cost of the current all-auto mode! For every $1 spent for the all-bus mode, the average motorist spends $11.10 to $11.86!

2). The annual fuel consumption for the all-bus mode is only 9.43% to 9.60% of that of the all-auto mode! For every one gallon of fuel used in the all-bus mode, the all-auto mode requires 10.42 to 10.60 gallons!

3). For SCR, California and the USA, respectively, the annual fuel savings that accrue by use of the all-bus system are 5.68 billion, 10.35 billion, and 70.08 billion gallons, respectively; the annual savings in equivalent barrels of crude petroleum are 298 million, 545 million, and 3.69 billion barrels, respectively; the 10 year savings are 2.76 billion, 4.76 billion, and 30.5 billion barrels, respectively! The last figure for the USA far exceeds the wildest, most optimistic estimation of petroleum reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge!!

4). The annual pollutants from the all-bus mode are 10.09% to 10.26% of those for the all auto mode! If natural gas buses are used instead of diesel, then the ratio drops to near zero!

Clearly, the all-bus system is far superior to the current (nearly) all-auto system of transportation because its use would result in far lower costs for the entire body of passengers (especially vehicle owners), far lower fuel consumption and consequent fuel conservation, far less wasted energy, far lower pollution (noise and environmental), far less wasted travel time for almost everyone, and a substantial alleviation or elimination of all of the problems described at the outset.

Mathematical Relations

pc = number of passengers per carpb = number of passengers per bussc = speed of each car in miles per hour (mph)sb = speed of each bus in miles per hour (mph)tc = average number of hours each car operates tb = average number of hours each bus operates lc = average distance each car travels = sc tc

lb = average distance each bus travels = sb tb

dp = average distance each passenger travelsLc = length of each car (feet)Lb = length of each bus (feet)Sc = separation between each car (feet)Sb = separation between each bus (feet)dc = density per unit of length for all-car mode (number of passengers per mile for all-car mode)db = density per unit of length for all-bus mode (number of passengers per mile for all-bus mode)Nc = number of passengers passing by a fixed point per hour in the all-car modeNb = number of passengers passing by a fixed point per hour in the all-bus modeVc = number of cars passing by a fixed point in one hourVb = number of buses passing by a fixed point in one hourPc = number of passenger miles carried by each car at speed, sc, with pc passengers, and operating for tc hours = sc tc pc

Pb = number of passenger miles carried by each bus at speed, sb, with pb passengers, and operating for tb hours = sb tb pb

The following equations (1) through (7') hold for one lane of a thoroughfare in one direction.The safe separation rule requires that the distance, S, between vehicles must satisfy

(1) S > 1.5s, where s is the vehicle speed in mph.We have the following relations:

(2) dc = 5280pc/(Lc + Sc)(3) db = 5280pb/(Lb + Sb).

Note that Sc and Sb must satisfy (1) if there is to be safe separation.The maximum density under safe separation occurs when equality holds in (1), and so we have

(2') dcMAX = 5280pc/(Lc + 1.5sc)(3') dbMAX = 5280pb/(Lb + 1.5sb).

We further have:(4) Nc = dcsc = 5280scpc/(Lc + Sc) = Vcpc

(5) Nb = dbsb = 5280sbpb/(Lb + Sb) = Vbpb

(6) Vc = 5280sc/(Lc + Sc)(7) Vb = 5280sb/(Lb + Sb).

The maximum number of passengers (respectively, vehicles) passing by a fixed point in one hour under the safe separation rule occurs when equality holds in (1), and so we have(4') NcMAX = dcMAXsc = 5280scpc/(Lc + 1.5sc) = VcMAXpc

(5') NbMAX = dbMAXsb = 5280sbpb/(Lb + 1.5sb) = VbMAXpb

(6') VcMAX = 5280sc/(Lc + 1.5sc)(7') VbMAX = 5280sb/(Lb + 1.5sb).

Now let Tc be the total daily number of passengers in the all-car mode, each traveling an average distance, a c, and all to be carried by C cars with each traveling at speed, s c, each with pc passengers, and each operating for tc hours. Then(8) Tc = C pc

(8') (TPM)c = total number of passenger miles in all-car mode = Tc ac = C Pc = C sc tc pc.Analogously, let Tb be the total daily number of passengers in the all-bus mode, each traveling an average distance, a b, and all to be carried by B buses with each traveling at speed,

sb, each with pb passengers, and each operating for tb hours. Then(9) Tb = B pb

(9') (TPM)b = total number of passenger miles in all-bus mode = Tb ab = B Pb = B sb tb pb.If we assume Tc = Tb and ac = ab, then we obtain (see (8') and (9')) the ratio of buses to cars

(10) B/C = (sc tc pc)/(sb tb pb).

For a hypothetical example, let pc = 1 and pb = 50 and assume the conditions in (10). This means one passenger per car, fifty passengers per bus, the total number of daily passengers are the same for both modes, and the average distance for each passenger is the same for both modes. If sc = 30 mph (average car speed), tc = 1 hr (average time of car travel), sb = 60 mph (average bus speed), tb = 3 hrs (average bus time of travel), then B/C = 1/300. Furthermore, if C = 10,000,000 cars, then B = 33,333 buses.

Summarizing this hypothetical example, only 33,333 buses, each traveling at 60 mph for 3 hours, and each with 50 passengers, produces 300,000,000 passenger miles, but it takes 10,000,000 cars, each traveling at only 30 mph for 1 hour, and each with only one passenger, to produce the same!! In such a hypothetical scenario, the travel time for each of the 10,000,000 people would be one-half as much in the all-bus mode as it would be in the all-car mode!

Consumption of Petroleum by End-Use Sector, 1999–2001(billion barrels per year)

Electric Total%utilities %Industrial %Commercial %Residential %Transportation Year

7.122.2%0.1525.8%1.841.7%0.124.3%0.3166.0%4.7019997.211.7%0.1225.0%1.801.9%0.144.4%0.3167.1%4.8420007.191.9%0.1424.7%1.771.8%0.134.3%0.3167.3%4.842001

Transportation Energy Use by Mode, 1999–2000 (a)Distribution perBillion barrels perThousand barrels peryear crude oilyear crude oilday crude oilPercentage of totalTrillion Btuequivalent (b)equivalent (b)equivalent (b)based on Btus

200019992000199920001999200019992000199979.518%80.425%3.871813.8503910,607.7010,549.0075.5%76.4%20,728.8020,609.60HIGHWAY61.592%62.839%2.998993.008448,216.408,242.3057.2%58.5%15,705.5015,764.70Light vehicles35.655%36.445%1.736091.744854,756.404,780.4033.1%33.9%9,081.709,133.60Automobiles25.834%26.288%1.257901.258563,446.303,448.1024.0%24.5%6,597.606,604.60Light trucks (c)0.103%0.105%0.005000.0050413.713.80.1%0.1%26.226.5Motorcycles0.717%0.722%0.034890.0345795.694.70.8%0.8%211.1207.4Buses0.328%0.326%0.015950.0156243.742.80.4%0.4%101.497.7Transit0.118%0.120%0.005730.0057315.715.70.1%0.1%33.433.4Intercity0.271%0.276%0.013210.0132136.236.20.3%0.3%76.376.3School

17.209%16.864%0.837930.807382,295.702,212.0017.5%17.2%4,813.104,637.50Medium/heavy trucks3.368%3.374%0.163990.16151449.3442.53.4%3.4%943.7928.6OFF-HIGHWAY1.360%1.327%0.066210.06355181.4174.11.4%1.4%383367.6Construction2.008%2.046%0.097780.09797267.9268.42.0%2.1%560.7561Agriculture

17.114%16.202%0.833300.775662,283.002,125.1021.1%20.1%5,785.205,423.80NONHIGHWAY9.250%9.121%0.450370.436651,233.901,196.309.3%9.2%2,548.602,470.80Air0.652%0.653%0.031760.031248785.60.6%0.6%175.1172.1General aviation7.259%7.163%0.353430.34292968.3939.57.3%7.2%2,004.001,944.30Domestic air carriers1.339%1.305%0.065190.06249178.6171.21.3%1.3%369.5354.4International air5.895%5.045%0.287040.24152786.4661.76.3%5.3%1,720.401,434.60Water4.678%3.811%0.227760.18246624499.95.1%4.2%1,409.201,124.50Freight1.217%1.234%0.059280.05906162.4161.81.1%1.2%311.2310.1Recreational0.061%0.075%0.002960.003618.19.93.3%3.4%910.9911.8Pipeline1.909%1.961%0.092930.09388254.6257.22.2%2.2%605.3606.6Rail1.819%1.865%0.088590.08928242.7244.61.9%1.9%516520Freight0.089%0.096%0.004340.0046011.912.60.3%0.3%89.386.6Passenger0.012%0.014%0.000580.000661.61.80.2%0.2%47.244.7Transit0.038%0.041%0.001860.001975.15.40.1%0.1%25.925.7Commuter0.039%0.041%0.001900.001975.25.40.1%0.1%16.216.2Intercity

100.000%100.000%4.869104.7875613,340.0013,116.60100.0%100.0%27,457.7026,962.00TOTAL

If we rigorously use our human reason both to discover and acknowledge the facts about our current transportation quagmire, and if we follow the logical implications for effective human action that such knowledge entails, then we can free ourselves of our plight. Failing this, we are doomed by mindless apathy, irrationality, ignorance and the stranglehold of the powerfully entrenched corporate interests to suffer our endlessly worsening transportation afflictions.

The End

Documents

World Fossil Energy Crisis and Fareless Urban Mass Transportation: Buying Time and Solving the Transportation Quagmire at the Same Time By John Bachar