World Demographic Development and Food Supply

7/29/2019 World Demographic Development and Food Supply

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1.) The Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions

The two changes in the use of the earth's resources that had the greatest effecton the world population werethe neolithic and the industrial revolutions.

The neolithic revolution (a.k.a. agricultural revolution) was a change in the way of life of our ancestors. Ittook place about 8000 years ago among various tribes in Asia and the Middle East. It included a transitionfrom foraging and hunting to the domestication of animals (most probably starting with the dog) and tofarming. Tribes settled in fertile areas and formed agricultural communities many of which grew into villagesand cities. This relatively stable way of life and the more reliable food supply(and surplus) led to thedevelopment of new professions, to labor specialization and ultimately to the stratification of these societies.Improved conditions of life led to somewhat longer life spans. Nevertheless population growth remained lowdue to high infant mortality rates. The impact of the neolithic revolution was not as much on immediate

population growth (even though it did have a long term impact on population growth) as on the material andspiritual development of the human race. It is widely regarded as the beginningof civilization.Industrial revolution was another process of change. It was the process of substituting muscle power withmachine power. It took place in the 18th century in Europe and is still happening in many parts of the world.In many characteristics it has been similar to the neolithic revolution: it increased production, it led to theuse of resources that had been mostly unused until then and it improved the overall quality of life. It also ledto changes in the structure of society.

What was different, was its impact on population growth. It was quick and easilynoticeable. Advancedsanitation, hygiene and medicine led to longer life spans and declining death rates, with the birth ratesremaining high. This resulted in a high rate of population growth that still continues in many countries.The information revolution is the process of change that began in the second half of the 20th century in thedeveloped countries of the world. It is the process of substituting "brain power" with "machine power". Itleads to increased production and has the potential to create a more even distribution of the world'spopulation on the surface of the earth. It also has the potential to decrease th

e differences between the lessdeveloped and the highly developed nations of the world. Then again it also hasthe potential to increasethose differences. It causes changes in the structure of society. Many of its impacts are still to beexperienced.

2.) Thomas Malthus

Thomas Robert Malthus, an English economic thinker published a theory in 1798 co


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ncerning the relationshipbetween population growth and food supply. He said that population always increases exponentially, whilefood supplies increase only arithmetically. He advocated that moral restraints can not be implemented on thescale of the whole population because most individuals are will seek their own pleasure ignoring the globalimpacts of their actions. The growing population will therefore put a strain onthe limited food resourcesthat will lead to wars, famine and disease, decreasing the population thus restoring the equilibrium.I think it is obvious that the first part of his theory, while it does apply tocertain countries, proved to becompletely wrong on a global scale. There is no world-wide calorie deficit. The"food supply increase topopulation increase" ratio is substantially higher in the developed world than in the less developed countries.On a global scale, current food supplies do exceed the needs of the world's population, but they are notdistributed in a way that benefits the whole population. Fortunately international programs aimed atachieving a better distribution of food resources do make an impact in decreasing the calorie deficit, and it isquite likely that the inhabitants and the leaders of the developed nations will

eventually come to theconclusion that it is better to "share some" than to risk loosing all. So, evenwhere moral restraints don'twork, common sense just might have a chance.

3.) Population Growth, Demographics

A.) In the early prehistoric times (1 million years ago) there were no more humans on the whole earth thanin a modern American town (such as Provo). For a long time the growth rate was slow. The difficulties ofobtaining food, the lack of sanitation or advanced medicine, the living conditions in general meant short life

spans (20-25 years in average) and a high death rate. Even the largest communities (tribes) rarely exceeded100 people.

B.) The neolithic revolution about 8000 years ago meant that tribes began to domesticate animals and plantfood crops. Tribes settled and developed into larger communities. The reliable food source and relativelypeaceful existence led to the development of many new professions and inventions. It also led to the divisionof society into different classes (peasants, artisans, rulers, etc.). The continuing process of advances intechnology led to faster population growth and by the time of Christ the world's

population numbered morethan half of the current population of the USA.

C.) The different rates of population growth in various areas of the world, thedifferent levels ofdevelopment (nomadic vs. civilized) and the differences in the availability of resources led to numerousmigrations over the centuries.- Asian tribes moved to the west and south (5th century BC - 16th century AD);- Europeans colonized large areas of the Americas, Australia and the Pacific reg


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ion, India and Africa;- African slaves were bought and taken to the Americas and to Arabic and Turkishareas;- Russians "colonized" the eastern reaches of Eurasia.By the 18th century the world's population numbered about the same as the current population of the wholeAmerican continent. (Heavy population decrease occurred during the Black Death in Europe and South-Eastern Asia.)

D.) In the 18th century AD, technological development finally reached a level where it became possible tosubstitute muscle power with machines in many areas. A virtual chain reaction ofinventions began.Increased production, advances in medicine and other areas resulted in increasedlife expectancy anddecreased death rates with the birth rates remaining high. This led to noticeably faster population growth.

E.) Finally in this century the developed countries experienced a decline in birthrates and thus a slowingpopulation growth. Many countries of the world, mostly the less developed ones have not yet achieved thisstage. Most of today's highly developed countries were able to exploit the resou

rces of the less developednations of Africa and Asia long enough to give time for the impacts of the higher standards of living, longerlife spans and abundant resources to change the attitude of these nations and result in decreased populationgrowth. The less developed countries of the world have no other nations to exploit. Most often theimprovements in technology simply lead to population increase that "eats up" thefruits of the improvements,making further development and investment nearly impossible.

It is especially important to understand that we all live on the same planet. Cooperation and assistance to the

developing nations are usually cheaper than another set of missile defenses...

4.) Migrations

Europeans traveled to America, Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand. These were the migrations thatwere the most important of this period. They allowed the ever growing populationof Europe to find a newhabitat. These migrations resulted in European dominance of these newly colonized territories and spreadthe fast pace of technological development experienced in Europe to all the continents (although in varyingdegrees).

The migration of Europeans to the Americas was soon followed by a flow of African slaves (as many as 20million) who provided cheap labor. African slaves were also sold in Arab and Turkish areas.

The eastward migration of Russians is also to be noted. The interaction with andthe "colonization" ofterritories east and southeast of Russia (Siberia, Caspian region, Caucasian region, etc.) ultimately led to the


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formation of a much larger empire.

5.) Stages of Demographic Transition

"Demographic transition" is a process of population change that can be divided into four stages.

a.) Before the industrial revolution the majority of the world experienced low life expectancy, high birthrates and high death rates resulting in slow population growth;

b.) Western Europe entered the second stage with the onset of the industrial revolution in the 18th centurywhile other parts of the world entered it later, when they, too had either madetechnological advances or thebenefits of industrialization were introduced to them by more developed countries. This stage ischaracterized by longer life expectancy, high birth rates and declining or low death rates, resulting in ahigh and continuous increase in population.

c.) With changes occurring in the "value" of children as opposed to their costsmany industrialized countrieshave entered stage three. It is characterized by long life expectancy, rapidly d

eclining birth rates and lowdeath rates, resulting in slow growth rates, similar to the rates in the first stage.

d.) Some industrialized countries have progressed even further and have enteredthe fourth stage. It isusually characterized by long life expectancy*, low birth rates and low death rates, with the birthratessometimes falling below the death rates, resulting in minimal population growthor no growth at all andsometimes even a population decline.

Countries in the second stage of demographic transition experience great difficu

lties in technologicaldevelopment because improvements result in larger population that automaticallynegates the benefits ofthose improvements. Many of these nations make great efforts to educate their people about the benefits ofsmall families and the negative impact of large families.

6.) Comparing the 5 most populated countries of the world; birth/death rate,lifespan, income.

- Among the five most populated countries of the world India has the highest birth rate, while the birth ratein Africa is an average 50% higher than in India.

- Among the five most populated countries of the world India also has the highest death rate, while the deathrate in Africa is an average 20% higher than in India.- Among the five most populated countries of the world Indonesia has the lowestlife expectancy; lifeexpectancy in Africa is almost the same as in Indonesia.- Among the five most populated countries of the world China has the lowest percapita income; more thanhalf of the African nations have a per capita income lower than in China. The average, however, is about


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twice as high due to a few mineral rich countries.

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World Demographic Development and Food Supply