World Bank Document...CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective June 30, 1998) Currency Unit = Turkish Lira 265,050. 00 TL= US$1.0 US$1.0 = 265,050. 00 TL FISCAL YEAR January I

Document ofThe World Bank

Report No. 18376-TU

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

ON A

PROPOSED LOAN

IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 369.0 MILLION

TO THE

REPUBLIC OF TURKEY

FOR AN

EMERGENCY FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECT

AUGUST 24, 1998

Infrastructure SectorTurkey Country UnitEurope and Central Asia Region

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective June 30, 1998)

Currency Unit = Turkish Lira265,050. 00 TL= US$1.0US$1.0 = 265,050. 00 TL

FISCAL YEARJanuary I - December 31

FISCAL YLAR: WORLD BANKJuly 1-June 30

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AGM - Afforestation and Erosion CenterAMU - Adana Management UnitCC - Crisis CenterCAS - Country Assistance StrategyDDY - General Directorate of RailwaysDMI - State Meteorological InstituteDSI - State Hydraulic WorksEBRD - European Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentEIB - European Investment BankEIE - General Directorate of Electrical PowerECU - European Currency UnitGDCD - General Directorate of Civil DefenseGD - General DirectorateGDDA - General Directorate of Disaster AffairsGDF - General Directorate of ForestryGDI - General Directorate of InsuranceGDAEC - General Directorate of Afforestation and Erosion ControlGDRS - General Directorate of Rural ServicesGDTRI - General Directorate of Technical Research and ImplementationGIS - Geographical Information SystemGOT - Govemment of TurkeyGPN - General Procurement NoticeFMR - Financial Management ReportHDA - Housing Development AdministrationIBRD - International Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentICB - International Competitive BiddingIS - International ShoppingLCSM - Least Cost Selection MethodKGM - General Directorate of State HighwaysMARA - Ministry of Agriculture and Rural AffairsMPWS - Ministry of Public Works and SettlementNCB - National Competitive Bidding

NGO - Non-Governmental OrganizationsNS - National ShoppingPIP - Project Implementation PlanPIU - Project Implementation UnitPM - Prime MinisterQCBS - Quality and Cost Based SelectionSA - Special AccountSME - Small and Medium EnterprisesSPO - State Planning OrganizationSOE - Statement of ExpensesSS - Summary SheetTEFER - Turkey Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery ProjectTEK - Turkish Electricity AuthorityTOF - Terms of ReferenceUNDP - United Nations Development ProgrammeUSAID - U.S. Agency for Intemational DevelopmentUSTDA - U.S. Trade and Development AgencyWBSR - Western Black Sea Region

Vice President: Johannes F. Linn, ECACountry Director: Ajay Chhibber, ECCO6Sector Director: Ricardo A. Halperin, ECSINTask Team Leader: Piotr Wilczynski, ECSSD

TurkeyEmergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Project

Project Appraisal Document

CONTENTS

A. Project Development Objective ................................................................ 2

1. Project development objectives and key performance indicators .................................... 2

B. Strategic Context ................................................................ 2

1. Sector-related CAS goal supported by the project ..................................................... 22. Main sector issues and Government strategy ........................................................... 33. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices .................................. 5

C. Project Description Summary ................................................................ 6

1. Project components ................................................................ 62. Key policy and institutional reforms supported by the project ....................................... 63. Benefits and target population ................................................................ 74. Institutional and implementation arrangements ........................................................ 7

D. Project Rationale ................................................................ 9

1. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection ............................................. 92. Major related projects financed by the Bank and/or other development agencies ............... 103. Lessons learned and reflected in proposed project design .......................................... 104. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership ................................................ 125. Value added of Bank support in this project .......................................................... 12

E. Summary Project Analyses ................................................................ 13

1. Economic ................................................................ 132. Financial ................................................................ 133. Technical ................................................................ 134. Institutional ................................................................ 135. Social ................................................................ 136. Environmental assessment ................................................................ 137. Participatory approach ................................................................ 14

F. Sustainability and Risks ................................................................ 14

1. Sustainability ................................................................ 142. Critical risks ................................................................ 153. Possible controversial aspects ................................................................ 16

G. Main Loan Conditions ........................ 16

1. Effectiveness conditions .................. 16

H. Readiness for Implementation ........................ 17

I. CompliancewithBankPolicies ........................ 17

Annexes

Annex 1. Project Design Summary .18Annex 2. Detailed Project Description .19Annex 3. Estimated Project Costs .42Annex 4. Cost-Benefit or Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Summary: not applicable .43Annex 5. Financial Summary ......................................... 44Annex 6. Procurement and Disbursement Arrangements .45

Table A. Project Costs by Procurement Arrangements .47Table B. Thresholds for Procurement Methods and Prior Review .48Table C. Allocation of Loan Proceeds .50

Annex 7. Project Processing Budget and Schedule .51Annex 8. Documents in Project File .52Annex 9. Statement of Loans and Credits .53Annex 10. Countiy at a Glance .54

Map IBRD 29769


Project Appraisal Document

Europe and Central Asia RegionCountry Department for Turkey

Date: August 24, 1998 Task Team Leader: Piotr Wilczynski, ECSSDCountry Director: Ajay Chhibber, ECCO6 Sector Director: Ricardo Halperin, ECSINProject ID: TR-PE-58877 Sector: Infrastructure Program Objective Category: n/aLending Instrument: Emergency Recovery Loan Program of Targeted Intervention: [ l Yes (x I No

Project Financing Data [x] Loan [] Credit [] Guarantee [x] Other[Specify]

For Loans/Credits/Others:

Amount: US$ 369.0 millionProposed terms: [] Multicurrency [x] Single currency, specify USD

Grace period (years): 3 [] Standard Variable [x] Fixed Lx] LIBOR-based

Years to maturity: 15Commitment fee: 0,75% on undisbursed loan balances, beginning 60 days after signing, less any waiver

Front End Fee: 1%

Financing plan (US$m):Source Local Foreign Total

Govemment 316.0 - 316.0Co-financiersIBRD 190.0 179.0 369IDA -Other (specify)

Total 506.0 179.0 685.0

Borrower: Republic of TurkeyResponsible agencies: Treasury and Housing Development Agency

Estimated Disbursements (Bank FY/US$M): FY99 FY00 FYO1/02Annual 158.0 142.0 69.0

Cumulative 158.0 300.0 369.0

Project Implementation Period: June 8, 1998- December 31, 2001Expected Effectiveness Date: October 1998Expected Closing Date: June 30, 2002

Page 2

A: Project Development Objective

1. Project development objectives and key performance indicators (see Annex 1):

The proposed multi-sectoral project is of an emergency nature, aiming to restore basic infrastructure incommunities and rural areas affected by the flood to reconstruct and repair household units damaged bythe earthquake for currently displaced people, to make urgent repairs to the flood management system, toreduce flood risk and vulnerability, to improve the policy framework and institutional capacity for betterflood and hazard disaster management and mitigation, concentrating on the most heavily affected regionsof Turkey, to reduce public costs of future natural disasters in terms of the burden on the central and localbudgets. The most urgent actions should be taken before the end of the construction season and thearrival of harsh winter months.

The three principal objectives of the proposed project are to assist the Government of Turkey in:

a) restoring basic infrastructure in municipalities and rural areas affected by the flood byrepairing structures and facilities of economic and social importance

b) providing assistance to restore housing in the earthquake affected Province of Adana; and

c) reducing vulnerability to future floods and earthquakes.

Key performance indicators for participating agencies and municipalities are timely repair or replacementof critical infrastructure to ensure public health and safety, in accordance with the priorities defined bylocal, regional and national authorities. Performance indicators for national government are repair ofhydrotechnical infrastructures and introduction of an improved natural hazard mitigation system that willlimit the damages caused by future floods.

B: Strategic Context

1. Sector-related Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) goal supported by the project (see Annex 1):

CAS document number: 16992-TU Date of latest CAS discussion: September 4, 1997

The project supports the CAS goal to sustain private sector growth, especially in the area of increasedprivate sector participation in insuring against disaster risk and corporate liability of the constructionindustry. Private sector development is also supported through infrastructure development, by engaginglocal vendors, contractors and technical service providers to implement infrastructure restoration. Theproject also supports the CAS goals for environmental and social sustainability of reforms by repairingenvironmental infrastructure damages from the flood and the earthquake, restoring basic infrastructurenecessary for economic activity. Moreover, the project supports the CAS goal of poverty reduction as itbenefits the poor hit by the disastrous flood and earthquake. While the poverty impact of this project maynot be directly measurable, the project will minimize the adverse effect on living conditions experiencedby the currently displaced people who have been affected by these natural disasters, the flood and theearthquake. The project will have a significant positive impact in restoring normnal living conditions to alarge proportion of the population in rural areas and affected municipalities.

The project is not listed in the CAS as a priority operation for GOT as it responds to a national emergencythat occurred after the last CAS discussion. However, the GOT has indicated that the project is a priority

Page 3

operation, and has asked the Bank for financial and technical support to deal with the flood and theearthquake emergencies.

2. Main sector issues and Government strategy:

(a) Strategic Setting

L Flood Damages. As a result of extreme rain on May 21, 1998, the Western Black Sea Region (WBSR)was affected by a flood with recurrence intervals estimated to range - depending on location - from 200yea: 900 years, several hundred landslides occurred on May 21 and for several weeks thereafter.

In WBSR, an area of about 37,000 square kilometers with a population of 2.2 million suffered the worstflooding of the last century. Some 151 rivers overran their beds and embankments; 478 settlements wereleft wholly or partially under water. The flood damaged private houses, public buildings (e.g. schools,hospitals, housing), rural and urban infrastructure, telecommunication and energy transmission systemsand destroyed crops and livestock. In spite of the magnitude of the catastrophe, it was reported that onlyaround 20 people died. The primary reason for the relatively low loss of life was that the heavy rainfalloccurred during daytime. Following the heavy rains numerous landslides were reported, and around1000 families have been evacuated from around 40 settlements. Access to nearly 600 villages wasblocked. Based on investigations in the disaster areas, related government organizations prepared lists ofconstruction and repairs, including estimated costs. The initial total estimated cost of recovery andreconstruction is about US$ 500 million as summarized below in Table 1.

Table 1. Estimated Total Cost of Recovery and Reconstruction Activities, as of June 1, 1998ITEMS COST (mil. $)

Emergency Aid and Cost of Relief Activities 80Housing and Technical Infrastructure 60Agriculture and Livestock 50Repair and Reconstruction of Highway and Bridges 100Repair and Reconstruction of Rural Transportation Facilities 70Repair of Railway 20Repair of Telecommunication Facilities 5Repair of Electrical Facilities 3Repair and Reconstruction of Municipal Infrastructure 20Repair and Reconstruction of Flood Control Facilities 70Repair and Reconstruction of Public Buildings 3Repair and Reconstruction of Bartin Harbour 2Forest roads and facilities 17TOTAL 500Source: Government estimates.

The TEFER project directly responds to the urgent needs in the flood affected region. It covers the repairand reconstruction to water and wastewater systems, municipal, rural and forest roads and bridges,irrigation facilities in more than 100 of the most damaged municipalities and villages. Over 500 specificinvestments were identified for various sectors.

Flood Warning andResponse System. The floods and landslides in the WBSR demonstrated the needfor an improved warning and response system throughout Turkey. Warning techniques employed in

Page 4

many other countries are not in use here, primarily due to a lack of real-time hydrologic andmeteorological data.

The provincial and municipal emergency response plans apparently worked as they were designed, butthey respond mainly to the disaster rather than to disaster warning. The GOT indicated that the loss oflife would have been much higher had the floods and landslides occurred at night, when many morepeople would have been at home.

The technical agencies (DMI, DSI and EIE) are aware of the warning technologies available, but have notbeen directed to provide warnings of the type needed, and consequently have never developed thetechnical capability to do so. Their current budgets do not include funds needed for the collection of real-time data and the analysis of those data. Furthermore, there is no secure and reliable communicationssystem to deliver disaster warnings to the provinces or municipalities, and the local response plans are notdesigned to respond to specific, localized warnings.

Land Use Controls in Areas of High Flood and Landslide Risk. The GOT has a program to mapfloodplains and landslide-prone areas, and local government elements are mandated to use these maps fcrland use planning and management. However, due to lack of funding, the production of these maps isslow. Also, the Ministry of Public Works and Settlements, which produces these maps, is not certain thatthey are used effectively at the local level.

Lack of Hazard Mitigation Planning. There is no systematic program in Turkey for disaster mitigation,although there are several good mitigation activities being undertaken, including the adoption ofearthquake resistant building codes and land-use mapping and planning.

II. Earthquake Damage: On Saturday, June 27 - during preparation of the emergency flood project - amajor earthquake struck southern Turkey. According to Istanbul's Kandilli observatory, the Earthquakereached 6.3 on the Richter Scale in Adana Province. In spite of the magnitude of the catastrophe, it isreported that "only" around 144 people died in Adana Province. The primary reason for the relativelylow loss of life was that the earthquake occurred in a summer month, on a weekend during daytime.Therefore many people were outside the buildings. Over 1,000 people were injured. Based on theinformation prepared by more than 100 official investigation teams (as of July 14, 1998), 74,303household units were collapsed, heavily or lightly damaged. According to the official estimates, 11,601units in Adana and 1,472 units in Ceyhan have to be replaced or reconstructed. The number forreplacement and reconstruction of household units in rural areas are reported at 5,429. The total damageis estimated in the range about US$ 1 billion.

(b) Government and International Donor Response

Government of Turkey. At 10:30am on May 21, 1998, a " Crisis Center (CC)" was established at thePrime Minister's (PM) Office with all ministries and state agencies represented to address the floodemergency. In the disaster area, work of rescue teams were assisted by military units. Despite breakdownof communication and information systems, the local authorities managed the crisis rather successfully.In addition to the government efforts, civil organizations and private citizens banded together to help inthe recovery efforts. The Turkish Red Crescent Society (Kizilay) provided aid to those living in thedisaster areas: 14,280 blankets, 2,326 tents, mobile water tanks, food was sent and 12 mobile kitchenswere serving hot food to 8,500 people daily. GOT agencies mobilized available technical sources torepair or maintain basic transportation, telecommunication, energy and safe water supply in the disasterarea, and assess the magnitude of damage on the public works.

Page 5

On May 26, 1998, the Government informed the public that the total damage from the flood hadexceeded US$ 500 million. Bolu, Zonguldak, Bartin and Karabuk were declared "disaster areas". ByMay 29, 1998, transport and communication with all municipal settlements had been re-established.However, around 200 villages were still unreachable as of July 2.

The earthquake took place on June 27, at 16:56. Within 15 minutes after the earthquake, Crisis Centers inboth Ankara and Adana were operative. Surgeons, physicians, nurses living in Adana were prepared atthe hospitals for emergency cases and in the meantime the civil rescue team had started with their work.At 17:30, crisis centers in all the settlement units through the province were operative too. The sameevening the Red Crescent started delivering hot meals for the earthquake victims. A large number ofcities gave donations immediately. Food, first aid equipment, medicines, vaccination sets, rescuespecialists, tents and similar needs were never subject to any shortage.

A few days later, the government remitted additional money in order to arrange provisional housing forthose who had lost their homes or whose households were heavily damaged. Starting from July 13, everyeligible family or single residents have been paid a sum of about US$ 1,300.00. Within this frame,roughly 12,500 persons were paid for temporary settlement. During the last days of July, the mostimportant problems besides dealing with the lack of housing for the displaced people appeared to bepsychological disorders, reaching a very high number especially among women and children.

3. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices:

The objective of the multi-sectoral project is to reconstruct essential infrastructure and other facilities topromptly restore economic activity in affected areas The project will: (i) assist the Government toimplement expeditiously the reconstruction and rehabilitation of infrastructure in the rural and urbanareas damaged by the floods; (ii) improve construction standards and planning through regulatoryinstruments at the municipal and national levels to protect urban infrastructure and buildings from futurefloods; (iii) introduce measures to reduce potential losses from earthquakes and floods in the future; and(iv) increase the earthquake resistance of new buildings by adopting and enforcing building codesthrough introduction of mandatory corporate liability insurance for the construction industry.

The rationale for geographic and technical focus is based on strategic choices to assist the mostextensively damaged regions of Turkey to restore essential infrastructure in the WBSR, to mitigate futureflooding, and to reduce the vulnerability to earthquakes nationwide.

Page 6

C: Project Description Summary

1. Project components (see Annex 2for a detailed description and Annex 3for a detailed costbreakdown):

TEFERBank

Total Cost Financing Percentage(Incl. Taxes & (Incl. of

Contingencies) Percentage Contingencies) BankCategory (US$ million) of Total (US$ million) Financing

ComponentA. Municipal and Rural Infrastructure physical 209.2 30.6% 70.1 33.5%B. Flood Management and HazardReduction

1. Natural Hazard Risk Reduction and other 1.5 0.2% 1.1 73.0%Mitigation

2. Modemization of Forecasting, physical 46.0 6.7% 40.0 87.0%Warning, and Response System

3. Improvement of Disaster Response physical 15.5 2.3% 13.5 87.0%Capabilities

4. Repair and Improvement of Flood physical 95.6 14.0% 81.2 85.0%Protection InfrastructureSubtotal 158.6. 23.2% 135.8 85.6%C. Earthquake Reconstruction 308.3 45.0% 156.1 50.6%D. Project Implementation Unit proj mgt 4.8 0.7% 4.2 87.0%E. Front End Fee 3.7 3.7 100%Total Project 685.0 100% 369.0 100%Figures may slightly differ due to rounding.

* Municipal and Rural Infrastructure: TA, design, supervision, and investments to restoreinfrastructure in affected municipalities and rural areas

- Flood Management and Hazard Reduction: TA, design, supervision, and urgent investments to repairhydrotechnical infrastructure, modernize flood management system, improve forecasting andplanning, and introduce liability and homeowner insurance

* Earthquake Reconstruction: TA, design, supervision, and investments to reconstruct household unitsin affected municipalities and rural areas, provide training and studies to reduce earthquakevulnerability, and introduce liability and homeowner insurance and construction industry liabilityinsurance

* Project Implementation Unit: PIU to help implement, inter alia, procurement and disbursementactivities associated with the project

2. Key Policy and Institutional Reforms Supported by the Project:

* National Mitigation Policy and Strategy.* Sustainable Financing of Hazard Risks and Recovery.* Modernization of the Flood Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System.* Upgrading Local Flood Preparedness and Response Plans.* Homeowners and Industry Liability Insurance.* Upgrading Emergency Response Capacity.

Page 7

3. Benefits and target population:

Immediate benefits are the restoration of rural and municipal services and infrastructure serving themillions of inhabitants in the WBSR in Adana Province. Project investments would enable basic ornormal levels of operation of water supply, wastewater treatment, sewerage, and transportation systemsand buildings in the target region, and thereby improve health, safety and environmental conditions forthe affected population. First phase investments to restore damaged hydrotechnical infrastructure (e.g.,dikes) will limit or prevent possible significant additional losses. Economic recovery of the affectedregions and incremental tax revenues supporting the GOT budget would result from restoration of normalindustrial and agricultural activity.

The flood management component of the project will contribute significant improvements to Turkey'ssystem for flood preparedness and response in the WBSR. This component will include investments andtechnical assistance to modernize the hydrological and meteorological monitoring system, updatemapping and modeling of the project river basin areas using advanced GIS, modernize forecasting andmodeling capacity, and improve public awareness of flood risk and hazards.

The earthquake reconstruction component of the project will benefit the displaced persons who wereforced to live in tents after the disaster. This component will lead to the construction of 5,000 urban and3,800 rural household units with improved building standards and less vulnerability to future earthquakes.

Major public benefits can also be expected from the project, including the following:

* strengthening the capacity of the government to respond rapidly to priority needs of its citizens in theface of natural disasters;

* restoring dysfunctional community services to pre-flood normality;* providing employment in the construction industry and hydromechanical equipment industry; and• assisting in the development of a national insurance plan to shift the burden of future reconstruction

of housing and infrastructure from the individual families and the government to private insurancecompanies.

4. Institutional and implementation arrangements:

Implementation period: June 8, 1998 - December 31, 2001

Administrative Arrangements: Procurement, disbursement, supervision and related administrativeservices essential for smooth project implementation will be assisted by a Project Implementation Unit(PIU) in Ankara. The Government has appointed the same unit that has implemented ErzincanEarthquake Reconstruction Project be assigned the implementation responsibility for the new project.The Adana Management Unit (AMU) is to be established in Adana to manage the earthquake componentof the project. Policy guidance for the project will be provided by a Steering Committee comprised ofsenior officials of the implementing agencies. The key implementing agencies for each technicalcomponent are:

* Municipal and Rural Infrastructure Component: The main implementing agencies will be theGeneral Directorate of State Highways, General Directorate of Rural Services, General Directorate ofForestry, and municipalities, assisted by the PIU.

* Flood Management and Hazard Reduction Component: The implementation will be handled by theState Hydraulic Works (DSI), the Meteorologic Institute (DMI), the General Directorate of

Page 8

Afforestation and Erosion Control (AGM), the General Directorate of Technical Research andInformation (GDTRI), the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs (GDDA), the General Directorateof Civil Defense (GDCD) and the General Directorate of Electrical Power (EIE), assisted by the PIU.Earthquake Reconstruction Component: The implementation responsibility will be held by theHousing Development Administration (HDA) and the Ministry of Public Works and Settlement(MPWS), assisted by the PIU and the AMU.

The Government of Turkey has entrusted the Housing Development Administration (HDA) withauthority and responsibility for the implementation of the project. The HDA shall carry out its activitiesunder the project through the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) and the Adana Management Unit(AMU). The PIU and the AMU, will be maintained within the HDA in Ankara and Adana, respectively,with staff and other resources. The PIU and the AMU shall assist the implementing agencies andmunicipalities to carry out the Project with the overall policy guidance of the Steering Committee,pursuant to arrangements satisfactory to the Borrower and the Bank.

The Steering Committee is chaired by Treasury and includes representatives from the relevant Ministriesand implementing agencies, including the Ministry of Public Works and Settlements (MPWS), theHousing Development Agency (HDA), State Hydraulic Works (DSI), the State Meteorological Institute(DMI), General Directorate of Forestry (GDF), General Directorate of Disaster Affairs (GDDA), GeneralDirectorate of Insurance (GDI), General Directorate of Afforestation and Erosion Control (GDAEC), theGeneral Directorate of Technical Research and Implementation (GDTRI), the General Directorate ofState Highways (KGM), the General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS), General Directorate ofElectrical Power (EIE), General Directorate of Civil Defense (GDCD) and the State PlanningOrganization (SPO).

The organization charts presented in Annex 2 summarize the implementation arrangements. A detaileddescription of the implementing arrangements for the project, components and sub-components isprovided in the Project Implementation Plan

Allocation offunds. Approximately 21% of the project budget is dedicated to the infrastructurerestoration component A, about 39% for natural hazard reduction management, about 39% forearthquake reconstruction and about 1.2% for project management.

Custons Duties and Taxes. The World Bank funds cannot be used to finance local taxes (such ascustoms duties, sales tax, income tax, etc.). The import tax due on any World Bank-financed goods wouldbe paid by the Government, or paid by the relevant beneficiary.

Accounts, Audit and Reporting. HDA-PIU will be responsible for the detailed design andimplementation of the financial management system for the Project on the basis of (i) sections "VIIAccounts and Audits and "VIII Reporting" of the PIP; (ii) chart of accounts to be developed for theproject, and (iii), terms of reference and implementation timetable for financial management and thereporting system in Annex F. I and Annex F.2 of the PIP.

The Bank procedures (OP/BP 10.02) on financial management will be followed to make sure that soundfinancial management systems are in place. The Project and the Special account will be audited annuallyby independent auditors, acceptable to the Bank

Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements. Supervision would be carried out by the Bank's Task Team,which would review implementation of the project approximately on a quarterly basis during the first

Page 9

year. Supervision missions in subsequent years would be conducted two or three times per year asappropriate, with continuous on-site advice and support from the Bank's Country Management Union inAnkara. Supervision will examine both technical implementation and financial management of theproject. Audits of investments would be carried out by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank. TheBank would monitor the development of any proposed subsequent lending operations for completion offlood management and prevention investments.

Role of Co-financiers: n/a

D: Project Rationale

1. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection:

Project Timing: To process the project as a normal lending operation was rejected due to the need tomake funds available for urgent repairs and infrastructure investments as soon as possible, to improveliving conditions and mitigate insofar as possible damages from future flood seasons. Reallocation ofresources from other operations was considered, but funding and/or scope of tasks was found to beinadequate for the municipal/rural infrastructure, flood management and reconstruction investmentsneeded.

Alternatives Considered: Reallocation from existing projects was rejected due to inadequate resourcesand/or inadequate design. The approach used for Component B actually allows for and encouragesexamination of all alternatives. In examination of the individual hydrotechnical structures, all alternativesfrom "no action" to improvement of the structures will be determined by the analytical approachsuggested. For funding of recovery from future disasters, "no action" means not undertaking restoration,funding from the normal operating budget, or borrowing after each disaster. The project team suggestslooking at all other possible sources of funds. Finally, the development of a national mitigation strategyallows the GOT and its agencies to find mitigation measures that work for them while moving toward thegoal of hazard reduction.

For Component C, providing soft loans with highly subsidized interest rates was considered as analternative. But given the high inflation in Turkey, collection cost of these loans are higher than theprinciple amount. Another alternative considered was to give the beneficiaries grants to purchase unitsavailable on the market, and with the option to obtain a larger unit by paying the difference between thegrant amount and selling price of the unit. The advantage of this option is that the beneficiaries would beable to find suitable housing in a shorter time. One drawback of this option is that it is very difficult toassure the construction quality of the available units, as well as the administration of the grant procedureitself. This alternative was rejected due to the Bank's procedures which do not allow for indirecttransfers.

Institutional/FinancialArrangements: Establishment of new regional or national flood control centersand new hazard mitigation centers based on existing departments for flood, earthquake and other naturaldisasters was rejected in favor of technical assistance to rationalize and unify existing capabilities. Directlending by the Bank to municipalities is not an option because of the extent of the emergency. Directproject management and implementation by a national government ministry was rejected in favor of aPIU due to multiple agencies involved in implementation and to benefit from the experienced PIU forgreater efficiency.

Page 10

2. Major related projects financed by the Bank and/or other development agencies (completed, ongoingandplanned):

Sector issue Project Latest Supervision (Form 590)________________________________ Ratings

(Bank-financed projects only)Implementation Development

Progress (IP) Objective (DO)Bank-financed Erzincan Emergency S SEmergency Project Earthquake and

Reconstruction Project

IP/DO Ratings: HS (Highly Satisfactory), S (Satisfactory), U (Unsatisfactory), HlU (HighlyUnsatisfactory)

3. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design:

Lessons from the Bank's experience.

Infrastructure

Bank-wide experience has shown that reconstruction of damaged infrastructure alone is imperative butinsufficient, and that measures are needed to reduce the risk of similar future disasters and to safeguardpeople at risk. A second lesson is that, while quick response to disaster is important, it is equallyimportant to identify underlying problems and determine how to resolve them in ways that result in long-term sustainable solutions. In several Bank projects sustainability of infrastructure investments wasquestioned because of the projects' failure to address long-term mitigation measures. In regard torecurrent flooding, the 1993 Bank Water Resources Policy Paper encourages the use of fiscal incentives,control of land use and management practices, and other non-structural measures to lessen vulnerabilityrather than solely investing in the "structural" works (dikes, reservoirs, floodplain storage areas such aspolders). It has been widely recognized, e.g., that the benefits of long-term disaster management versusthe costs of repeated short-term post-disaster reconstruction should be taken into account during anyemergency operation. Additionally, previous Bank-supported provincial and municipal operations haveindicated that the more successful activities have: a) covered a large number of affected communities; b)involved highly competent local consultants and executing units; c) had access to funds that could beshifted among competing local communities.

Housing

It is axiomatic to state that the most immediate need following a disaster is likely to be shelter, first a tentand then a dwelling. Yet the housing components of most emergency loans have created an intensivedebate in the Bank as to what extent the Bank should finance a private good and to what extent disasterrecipients of a replacement dwelling should be required to contribute to their own relief in the form ofupfront contributions followed by repayments over time, i.e. a loan. A review of past emergency loanprojects ( Columbia Popayan, Mexico Earthquake, Jamaic Hurricane Emergency Reconstruction, ElSalvador Earthquake) does reveal the following:

Page 11

* A speedy response is imperative. Three of the four projects disbursed rapidly and one, El Salvador,required years before it began to disburse, long enough to doubt the emergency nature of the project.This requirement for rapid response carries several implications. For instance, the investment thatproduces the most rapid response may not be the least expensive.

* Cost recovery objectives will be difficult to achieve. It is natural for a government to wish forcontributions from individuals benefiting from disaster assistance. Any form of contribution isdifficult to achieve. A requirement for upfront contributions would deny assistance to those whocannot contribute. The best solution seems to be to construct to an acceptable inhabitable standardand assume that additional costs will be under-written by the beneficiary. A loan to a beneficiarywho is not required to pass an earnings test will always be a loan portfolio of dubious quality. Anycost recovery calculation based on lending terms should further discount for future uncollectibility.

* Cost recovery objectives of the Earthquake Component- housing. Taking into consideration pastBank experience, the objectives of the housing component of this project are:

* Construct speedily even though cheaper less speedy solutions are possible.F Construct to -an acceptable standard, allowing the beneficiary to complete when and if he/she

can.X Accept a loan as stipulated in the Disaster Law, that is 20 years with a two-year grace period,

and[ 0.0% interest.

Lessons and Priorities from Turkey's Recent Experience. Several lessons are clear from the recentdisaster events:

* The GOT assumes full financial responsibilities for disaster recovery, including highways,infrastructure at all levels, telecommunications, electric power transmission, housing, crop andanimal loss and agricultural damage.

* Although there are disaster mitigation activities being implemented by the GOT, there is no nationalstrategy for disaster mitigation. Without a mitigation strategy, it is likely that at least some of therecovery and restoration investments from this disaster will face the same risks.

* Although the GOT recognizes that building codes can increase the earthquake resistance of newbuildings, and has adopted such codes, enforcement of these codes is inconsistent.

* Although the GOT recognizes that floodplain mapping and landslide-prone area mapping willmitigate disaster damage, such maps are not being applied to land-use management in most regions ofTurkey and enforcement of land-use management is inconsistent.

* Although the GOT knows that there is available technology for flood warning and landslide warning,this technology is not being applied in Turkey.

* There is no element of government responsible for providing flood or landslide warnings to provincesand municipalities in Turkey.

* Communications failures during the flood/landslide event impeded emergency response, and wouldgreatly reduce the ability to provide warnings to provinces and municipalities.

Page 12

* There is no automated disaster information system in Turkey to effectively communicate needs andcapabilities during and immediately following a disaster.

* The hydrotechnical infrastructure damaged by the WBSR disaster provided protection in many areas,but this infrastructure has been damaged and exposes many municipalities to increased threat until itis repaired.

4. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership:

In May 1998, the GOT requested the Bank to develop on an urgent basis a project to provide financingand technical assistance for flood recovery and protection. Based on discussions with the Treasury, theMinistry of Forestry, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), the GDRS, the DSI, theKGM, GDDA, the DDY, the General Directorate of Meteorology, the EIE, the Bank and the GOT haveagreed the key points relating to the loan amount, GOT co-funding of the project, allocation of funds,disbursement arrangements, implementing arrangements and flow of funds, main project components andpriority actions, and project preparation. In addition, the GOT will formn a Steering Committee tosupervise and accelerate the pace of project preparation. The Steering Committee is chaired by Treasuryand includes representatives from the relevant Ministries and implementing agencies, including theMinistry of Public Works and Settlements (MPWS), the Housing Development Agency (HDA), StateHydraulic Works (DSI), the State Meteorological Institute (DMI), the Ministry of Forestry, GeneralDirectorate of Forestry (GDF), General Directorate of Disaster Affairs (GDDA), General Directorate ofInsurance (GDI), General Directorate of Afforestation and Erosion Control (GDAEC), GeneralDirectorate of Technical Research and Implementation (GDTRI), General Directorate of State Highways(KGM), General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS), General Directorate of Electrical Power (EIE),General Directorate of Civil Defense (GDCD) and the State Planning Organization (SPO).

Within days of the earthquake in the province of Adana, the GOT requested that the Bank expand theflood emergency recovery project to provide funding and to support recovery from the earthquake. TheGOT has demonstrated ownership of the project through sustained high level commitment of the manyagencies and regional/municipal governments concerned by rapidly appointing an experienced PIU toassist with project preparation and implementation.

5. Value added of Bank support in this project:

The Bank brings to the process of reconstruction and recovery from the historic flood of 1998 and theearthquake in Adana an organizational framework and clear process for identifying, selecting andimplementing priority investments for municipal/rural infrastructure and flood management. The projectwill help to mobilize and target other GOT resources for flood recovery and earthquake reconstruction.Through the emergency project, the Bank can provide critical funding when it is most needed. Bysupporting expanded use of liability and houseowner's insurance, the Bank is able to contribute to thedevelopment of a GOT strategy to raise construction standards and to provide long term sustainablefinancing for future housing reconstruction.

Page 13

E: Summary Project Analysis (Detailed assessments are in the project file, see Annex 8)

1. Economic: Not applicable

2. Financial . Not applicable.

3. Technical:

The project's technical design is well suited to Turkey's requirements for rapid investment for repair ofrural and municipal infrastructure, flood hazard reduction and earthquake reconstruction. Specificinvestment identification and cost estimates have been calculated on the basis of data compiled andanalyzed by the preparation and appraisal missions, and reflect the priorities and costs identified by localgovernment and technical agencies, within an acceptable margin of error for costs. Allowances are madefor physical and price contingencies consistent with rapid disbursement for infrastructure repair andemergency planning.

4. Institutional:

a. Executing agencies:

- Municipal and Rural Infrastructure Component: The main implementing agency will be the GeneralDirectorate of Highways, General Directorate of Rural Services, General Directorate ofForestry, other relevant agencies, and municipalities, assisted by the PIU.

* Flood Management and Hazard Reduction Component: The implementation will be handled by theState Hydraulic Works (DSI), the Meteorologic Institute (DMI), the General Directorate ofAfforestation and Erosion Control (AGM), the General Directorate of Technical Research andInformation (GDTRI), the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs (GDDA), the General Directorateof Civil Defense (GDCD) and the General Directorate of Electrical Power (EIE), assisted by the PIU.

- Earthquake Reconstruction: The implementation responsibility will be held by the HousingDevelopment Administration (HDA) and the Ministry of Public Works and Settlement (MPWS),assisted by the PIU and the AMI.

b. Project management: Housing Development Administration coordinated by the PIU.

5. Social:

Positive social impacts are anticipated as a result of the restoration of basic infrastructure providingtransportation, housing, wastewater treatment, water supply, and flood protection. In the event that floodmanagement planning would cause relocation of settlements or changes in land use, the proposedmeasures would be subject to public review consistent with Bank policy. The reconstruction of housing inAdana province will contribute to restoring the social failure of communities damaged during last June'searthquake.

6. Environmental assessment: Environmental Category [ A [x] B []C

Compliance with environmental requirements of Turkey and the Bank will be achieved in the followingway. In the PIU an Environmental Specialist will be hired in September 98. She or he will be responsiblefor screening the specific investments eligible for financing under this operation. The list of investmentsis included in Annex A of the PIP. The type of investments that are supported under Component A aresmall repair works projects. Initial assessments carried out by the project team, including road andmunicipal infrastructure engineers, and the Bank environmental specialist's review during appraisalshows that no major environmental impacts are foreseen. Under Component B, dike repairs andstrengthening of the hydro-technical infrastructure are foreseen (the Project does not include any

Page 14

investments for dams). These operations do not require environmental permits or clearances since theyaddress hydrotechnical structures already in place. Nevertheless, environmental factors will be furtherassessed at the detailed design stage for each structure that may have had environmnental flaws in its pre-existing form, and appropriate mitigation measures incorporated as part of the modernization of floodstructures. In addition, a list of criteria has been developed to help review the list of hydro-technicalinfrastructure investments. Moreover, the PIU Environmental Specialist will be responsible for reviewingthe project list and assuring that environmental requirements as stipulated in Turkish environmental lawand ordinances be followed. Compliance with those requirements by the implementing agencies will be acondition for financing by the PIU. For Component C, a site assessment study has been carried out.Environmental aspects related to the construction phase of this component will be incorporated in theTORs for contractors and enforced by the PIU environmental specialist.

It is the responsibility of the Environmental Specialist working for the PIU to include environmentalaspects in TORs for contracts. Under the supervision plan an environmental specialist from the Bank willbe reviewing and providing environmental clearance for projects. This is the first instance of a Bankemergency project for which an Environmental Specialist will be hired by the PIU to assure thatenvironmental aspects and compliance with environmental regulation are dealt with in accordance withnational, local and Bank requirements. Funding for the Environmental Specialist and any studies oradditional assessments that might be identified by the environmental specialist is provided under the PIUbudget, as well as in Components A, B and C.

Resettlement issues. Involuntary resettlements issues have been examined in the context of ComponentC, Earthquake Reconstruction, which will provide new housing for families displaced by the Adanaearthquake. The project does not involve involuntary resettlement. Under Turkish law, only thoseaffected by an earthquake who request new housing to be provided by the government in another locationare eligible for housing. The families who will receive housing under the project are therefore movingvoluntarily and at their own request, not being resettled involuntarily.

7. Participatory approach:

a. Primary beneficiaries and other affected groups: This project has been prepared in closecollaboration with GOT ministries and technical agencies, and provincial and municipal officials todefine the project, assess investments needs, prioritize actions, and develop an implementation plan.Project concept and priority investments have been developed by local consultants in very closecooperation with local governments. Priorities were confirmed by local councils as well as technicalagencies.

b. Other stakeholders: All stakeholder groups affected by the project have had an opportunity tocontribute to the project design through their local governments and representatives or throughinvolvement of the relevant technical agencies.

F: Sustainability and Risks

1. Sustainability:

Factors critical to the sustainability of the project include strong motivation on the part of national,regional and local governments to implement quickly flood and earthquake recovery and risk reductionmeasures to enhance public health and safety and to limit future economic losses. For the Municipal andRural Infrastructure Component and reconstruction of hydrotechnical infrastructure within the FloodManagement Component, government budgetary support is needed only during the project

Page 15

implementation phase, consistent with the nature of an emergency recovery project. Governmentbudgetary support beyond the implementation phase for improved flood management would notsignificantly exceed current expenditures for water management or flood control, as the projectemphasizes improved coordination between existing institutions and capabilities rather than creation andmaintenance of new organizations. For the Earthquake Reconstruction Component the improvement ofthe quality standards and the introduction of building codes will contribute to the sustainability of theproject in the earthquake prone country. The introduction of liability and houseowner insurance will shiftthe financial burden of natural disasters to insurance companies which will in turn have an incentive toenforce supervision of new building codes and adequate training of engineers, constructors andarchitects.

2. Critical Risks (reflecting assumptions in the fourth column of Annex 1):

Risk Risk Rating Risk Minimization Measure

Annex 1, cell "from Outputs to Objective"

Use of funds for sub-optimal expenditures M Carefully defined and reviewedportfolio of investments

Delay in project jimplementation M Adoption of solutions to project design,flow of funds and procurementmethods, an effective coordination bythe PIU and close project supervisionby the task team, clear implementingagreements between the PIU and theimplementing agencies

Efficient coordination between different involved Sufficient supervision support fromagencies Bank Task Team at initial stage to set

up procedures for effectiveM implementation; recruitment and early

activation of experienced PIU team tosupport the project.

Close review during approval missionby consultants and PIU

Overall Risk Rating MRisk Rating - H (High Risk), S (Substantial Risk), M (Modest Risk), N (Negligible or Low Risk)

There are three main risks to the successful implementation of projects of this type. First is the possible useof funds for sub-optimal expenditures. This risk is being addressed through a carefully defined portfolio ofactivities. The portfolio covers activities under the Municipal and Rural Infrastructure, the FloodManagement Components and the Earthquake Reconstruction. The second risk is a delay in projectimplementation. This risk is being reduced by Turkey's and the Bank's joint effort to adopt straightforwardsolutions to project design, flow of funds, and procurement methods, and by the PIU which has alreadyproven effective in managing emergency programs. A third risk is the large number of implementingagencies involved in the project. This risk is addressed through effective coordination provided by the

Page 16

PIU, close project supervision by the task team, and clear implementing agreements between PIU and theimplementation agencies.

3. Possible Controversial Aspects:

* Exclusion of some flooded regions in order to concentrate on the WBSR. The municipal and ruralinfrastructure component of the project concentrates on the WBSR as the region most heavilydamaged by the flood, excluding the replacement of agricultural inputs, livestock and lost crops.Moreover, under Component B, severe weather forecasting for all Western Turkey (see Map) willbe modernized and upgraded, and flood forecasting will be provided in four regions of WesternTurkey (see Map).

* The project does not include investments in the expansion or rehabilitation of the retention reservoirsystem or any resettlement activities. In the event studies to be undertaken under the project(Component B) include recommendations for changes of land use (e.g., improvement of agriculturaland other land use practices) or expansion or rehabilitation of reservoir capacity, feasibility studies,economic, environmental and social impact assessments would be conducted according to Bankprocedures to ensure the appropriateness of such recommendations.

G: Main Loan Conditions

1. Effectiveness Conditions:

(i) Establishment of the Steering Committee

2. Other:

(i) The Borrower shall carry out the Project in accordance with the PIP.(ii) The Borrower shall maintain until Project completion the Steering Committee.(iii) The Borrower shall maintain until Project completion the PIU and assign to it

responsibility for overall Project implementation and coordination.(iv) The Borrower shall select consultants to assist in the operation of the PIU by November

30, 1998.(v) The Borrower shall recruit by March 31, 1999, a financial management specialist

acceptable to the Bank to review the design and operation of the financial managementsystem to be used by the PIU with respect to the Project.

(vi) The Borrower shall complete by June 30, 1999, under a terms of reference agreed uponwith the Bank, a study of the options and modalities for recovering the costs ofreconstruction of facilities, including housing facilities, damaged as a result of naturaldisasters, and a study of the feasibility and options for the introduction of mandatoryinsurance of facilities in disaster-prone areas.

(vii) The Borrower shall by September 30, 1999, review the findings and recommendationsof the cost recovery and insurance studies with the Bank with a view to preparingproposals for the implementation of such recommendations for submission to relevantauthorities of the Borrower.

(viii) The Borrower shall prepare a mid-term review of the Project by April 30, 2000, andreview said report with the Bank by July, 31, 2000.

(ix) The Borrower shall have the funds flow system of the Project evaluated and shall submitto the Bank a report on such evaluation by November 30, 1998. Said report will bereviewed by the Borrower and the Bank within one month of submission. On the basis ofsaid review, the Borrower shall ensure the efficient flow of funds for the Project.

Page 17

(x) The Borrower shall make the proceeds of the Loan available to the Beneficiaries underFunding Agreements (Protocols) with standard terms and conditions which shall havebeen approved by the Bank.

(xi) The PIU shall prepare quarterly project progress reports for review by the Borrower andthe Bank.

H. Readiness for Implementation[ ] The engineering design documents for the first year's activities are complete and ready for the start ofproject implementation. [ ] Not applicable.[ I The procurement documents for the first year's activities are complete and ready for the start ofproject implementation.[x ] The Project Implementation Plan has been appraised and found to be realistic and of satisfactoryquality.[ ] The following items are lacking and are discussed under loan conditions (Section G):

I. Compliance with Bank Policies[x ] This project complies with all applicable Bank policies.[ ] [The following exceptions to Bank policies are recommended for approval:

The project complies with all other applicable Bank policies.]

Task Team Leader: Piotr Wilckynski, ECSSD

(jector Director: Ricardo Halperin, ECSIN

(ountry Director: Ajay Chhibber, ECCO6

Page 18

Annex 1Turkey: Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Project

Project Design Summary

Narrative Summary Key Performance Indicators Monitoring and Evaluation Critical Assumptions

Sector-related CAS Goal: (Goal to Bank Mission)D Project is not listed in CAS as it a Retum infrastructure facilities O Implementation 3 Continued strong national

responds to a national emergency and housing to operational completion report and local government supportthat occurred after the last CAS conditionsdiscussion;

C Supports private-sector growth (esp.in infrastructure development);supports environmental and socialsustainability by repairingenvironmental infrastructure andrestoring basic infrastructurenecessary for economic activity

Project Development Objective: (Objective to Goal)O Restore basic infrastructure in U Steering Committee established U Monthly PIU reports; U Continued government

municipalities and rural areas U Transformation from PCU to PIU C Reports from ongoing commitment andaffected by the flood; U Implementation agreements supervision by the field leadership

U Reduce vulnerability and costs to between the PIU and based Countrygovernment of future floods and implementing agencies and Management Unitearthquakes; . municipalities (CMU)

U Restoring housing in the earthquakeaffected Province Adana

Outputs: (Outputs to Objective)Component A U within one year 50% of the flood U Monthly PIU reports * Use of funds for sub-optimalU 63 investments for repair of state damage in municipal and rural U Reports from ongoing expenditures

highways infrastructure component will be supervision by CMU * Delay in projectU Restore rural services by repairing repaired; U Random audits implementation

2,004m of bridges, 1,429km of rural U during the second and third years, . Efficient coordinationroads, 268 drinking water supply the remaining 43% and 70/o, between different involvedfacilities and 12 sewerage plants respectively, will be repaired; agenciesand various irrigation facilities U adoption of national mitigation

U Repair forest roads, bridges and strategyculverts serving 250,000 people in U flood hazard mapsWBSR U feasibility studies for major new

3 Repair municipal roads, bridges, flood management investmentswater supply and sewerage in 4 U flood forecasting and warningcities and numerous villages system

Component B U 35% the household units are3 Basin Flood Protection Planning constructed in urban and ruralO Monitoring, Forecasting and areas of Adana Province in FY 99

Warning System U 51 % the household units areU Flood Protection Infrastructure constructed in FY 00U Flood Risk Reduction and U 14% the household units are

Prevention Program constructed in FY 01U National Program for construction

liability and homeowner insuranceComponent CU Demolition of damaged buildings in

Adana ProvinceU Construction of 5,000 urhan and

3,800 rural housing unitsProject Components/Sub-components: Inputs: (budget for each component) (Components to Outputs)(see Annex 2 for project description) U regular progress and U timely transformation fromU l Municipal and rural infrastructure U USS 67.4 million disbursement reports PCU to PIU andU Flood management and hazard establishment of

reduction U US$ 127.2 million implementing agreementsO Earthquake Reconstruction U USS 146.6 millionU Project admin. and technical U USS 3.9 million

assistance

Page 19

Annex 2Turkey Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery

Project Description

I The proposed emergency project covering several affected sectors aims to: restore floodaffected basic infrastructure in communities and rural areas; reconstruct and repairearthquake-damaged household units for currently displaced people; make urgent repairs tothe flood management system; reduce flood risk and vulnerability; improve the policyframework and institutional capacity for better flood and hazard disaster management andmitigation in the most heavily affected regions of Turkey; and reduce public costs of futurenatural disasters in order to lighten the burden on the central and local budgets. It isimperative that the most urgent actions are taken before the construction season ends and theharsh winter season arrives

2. The project consists of the following components and sub-components:

A) Municipal and Rural Infrastructure, which includes technical assistance, design,supervision and investments to restore municipal and rural infrastructure at themunicipal level. This component covers water supply, sewerage in municipaland rural areas, local roads and bridges and forest roads

B) Flood Management and Hazard Reduction, which includes technical assistance,design, and urgent investments to upgrade hydrotechnical infrastructure;modernize flood management systems, and improve forecasting and planning.The Component includes natural hazard risk reduction and mitigation, insurance,modernization of the forecasting, warning and response systems, improvement ofdisaster response capabilities, and repair and improvement of flood protectioninfrastructure

C) Earthquake Reconstruction, which comprises technical assistance, design,supervision, and investments to reconstruct household units damaged by theearthquake

D) Project Management and Implementation Support. This component will providesupport to ensure timely and efficient implementation of the project bystrengthening the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) with additional staff andequipment, and by providing technical expertise that will be required for thispurpose.

Background

3. As a result of extreme rain on May 21, 1998, the Western Black Sea Region (WBSR) wasaffected by a devastating flood with recurrence intervals estimated to range from 200 years to1,000 years - depending on the region . Several hundred landslides occurred on May 21 andfor several weeks thereafter. During the same week, severe floods also occurred in the otherparts of the country, including Izmir, Aydin, Manisa, Denizli and Hatay

Page 20

4. In the WBSR, an area of about 37,000 square kilometers with a population of 2.2 million, thefloods of May 21 were the worst in the last century. Some 151 rivers and streams overflowedtheir banks; 478 settlements were flooded; and roads to at least 620 settlements were closeddue to flooding, erosion or landslides. Initial damage estimates included 2,000 buildingsdestroyed and another 6,500 buildings damaged. The flood damaged private houses,businesses and factories, public buildings, roads and bridges, railroads, flood protectioninfrastructure (e.g., levees, bank protection works), water and sewer systems,telecommunication systems and electrical transmission systems. The flood also damagedcrops and agricultural lands and facilities. It is believed that 20 people lost their lives. Theinitial total estimated cost of recovery and reconstruction is about US$ 500 million.

5. On Saturday 27 June 1998, the Province of Adana was affected by a severe earthquake.According to Istanbul's Kandilli Observatory, the earthquake reached 6.3 on the RichterScale. The U.S. Geological Survey put the preliminary magnitude at 6.2 and said the quakeshook the neighboring provinces of Mersin, Nigde and Kayseri, as well as the Mediterraneanisland of Cyprus. By midday Sunday, at least 34 aftershocks were registered. A strongaftershock (Richter Scale 5.1), followed by further shakes at Richter 4.8, 4.1, 4.2, 4.4 andthree times at 4.0, recorded on 07/04/98 at 5:15 A.M. further increased the damage to housesand buildings. Approximately 2.6 million people live in the Adana Province, of that 1.3million in the Municipality of Greater Adana.

6. In spite of the magnitude of the catastrophe, it is reported that "only" around 144 people diedin the whole province. The primary reason for the relatively low loss of life was that theearthquake occurred in a summer month, on a weekend during daytime. Therefore manypeople were outside the buildings. Over 1,000 people were injured but 90% of them wereable to leave the medical institutions and first aid stations after one week.

7. In addition to the damage in Adana and Ceyhan, approximately 20 small towns were heavilyaffected. Considerable damages were caused because of rescue and debris cleaningoperations caused by heavy earthmoving machinery and equipment.

8. Different groups of damaged houses could be identified: in Adana, mainly old houses in thelow and medium income area were affected. No heavy damage was reported to newlyconstructed buildings. In Ceyhan approximately 10 apartment buildings collapsed, whichwere either not designed to construction code or not properly supervised during construction.Official regulations require a stable construction against earthquakes of 7.5 Richter points. Invillages, mainly owner built houses were damaged.

9. There are differences between the damage to urban and rural housing. It appears that thedamage to "newly built" urban housing primarily resulted from negligence. The case ofCeyhan illustrates this negligence in design or construction. In Adana the greatest damagewas to older structures, due to structural aging and possibly inappropriate design andconstruction method.

10. The situation in rural areas is quite different from the cities. Both for older as well as newconstruction, the cause of damage were primarily lack of knowledge in design as well asinappropriate construction methods and materials. Most buildings were either built by theresidents or by local (village) contractors, neither having any familiarity with appropriatedesign standards or materials for housing in a region vulnerable to earthquakes. Localengineers indicated that in most cases non-structural cement was used for structural elements.

Page 21

Government Response

11. Government of Turkey. At 10:30 on May 21, 1998, a " Crisis Center (CC)" was establishedat the Prime Minister's (PM) Office with all ministries and state agencies represented toaddress the flood emergency. In the disaster area, work of rescue teams were assisted bymilitary units. Despite breakdown of communication and information systems, the localauthorities managed the crisis rather successfully. In addition to the government efforts, civilorganizations and private citizens banded together to help in the recovery efforts. TheTurkish Red Crescent Society (Kizilay) provided aid to those living in the disaster areas:14,280 blankets, 2,326 tents, mobile water tanks, food was sent and 12 mobile kitchens wereserving hot food to 8,500 people daily. GOT agencies mobilized available technical sourcesto repair or maintain basic transportation, telecommunication, energy and safe water supplyin the disaster area, and assess the magnitude of damage on the public works.

12. On May 26, 1998, the Government informed the public that the total damage from the floodhad exceeded US$ 500 million. Bolu, Zonguldak, Bartin and Karabuk were declared"disaster areas". By May 29, 1998, transport and communication with all municipalsettlements had been re-established. However, around 200 villages are still unreachable as atJuly 2.

13. The earthquake took place on June 27, at 16:56. Within 15 minutes after the earthquake,Crisis Centers in both Ankara and Adana were operative. Surgeons, physicians, nurses livingin Adana were prepared at the hospitals for emergency cases and the civil rescue team had inthe meantime started with their work. At 17:30, crisis centers in all the settlement unitsthrough the province were operative too. The same evening the Red Crescent starteddelivering hot meals for the earthquake victims. A large number of cities gave donationsimmediately. Food, first aid equipment, medicines, vaccination sets, rescue specialists, tentsand similar needs were never subject to any shortage.

14. The government remitted additional money in order to arrange provisional settlements forthose who had lost households or those whose households were heavily damaged. Startingfrom July 13, every eligible family and single residents have received a sum of about US$1,300. Roughly 12,500 persons received grants for temporary settlement. During the last daysof July, the most important problems besides the dealing with the re-settlement for thedisplaced people appears to be psychological disorders, reaching a very high numberespecially among women and children.

Overall damage assessment

15. Flood damages: Based on investigations in the disaster areas, the relevant governmentorganizations prepared lists of construction and repairs, including estimated costs. The initialtotal estimated cost of recovery and reconstruction was about US$ 500 million. Thebreakdown in sectors is given in Table 1.

Page 22

Table 1. Estimated Total Cost of Recovery and Reconstruction Activities Related to Floodand Landslide Damages in the WBSR

ITEMS COSTS (mil. $)

Emergency Aid and Cost of Relief Activities 80Housing and Technical Infrastructure 60Agriculture and Livestock 50Repair and Reconstruction of Highway and Bridges 100Repair and Reconstruction of Rural Transportation Facilities 70Repair of Railway 20Repair of Telecommunication Facilities 5Repair of Electrical Facilities 3Repair and Reconstruction of Municipal Infrastructure 20Repair and Reconstruction of Flood Control Facilities 70Repair and Reconstruction of Public Buildings 3Repair and Reconstruction of Bartin Harbour 2Forest roads and facilities 17TOTAL 500Source: Government estimates

Public Works

16. The major repair and reconstruction works to repair damages caused by the flood andlandslides in WBSR were estimated by the government agencies as summarized below.These should be regarded as preliminary estimates.

17. State highways : General Directorate of State Highways (KGM) conducted a primary studyon the damaged highways, including bridges, and initially estimated the cost ofreconstruction, repair and maintenance at US$ 100 million.

18. River dikes and embankments: General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) ispreparing a detailed study report. The estimated cost is US$ 72 million . The agency reportedthat there are no dams on the major flooding rivers, Bartin Cayi and Filyos.

19. Energy transmission lines and electric distribution network: The related agencies are TEASand TEDAS. It was reported that there is major damage to the distribution networks. Theestimated cost for repair and reconstruction is US$ 3 million

20. Bartin Harbour was filled with mud and debris carried by the flood. Dredging vessels weresent from Istanbul and Samsun on May 29, 1998, and 7,800 cubic meters of mud had beendredged as of May 31. The estimated cost of cleaning the harbour is US$ 2 million.

21. Railroads: Ankara- Karabuk Railroad was re-opened on May 31, 1998. Cankiri-ZonguldakRailroad was damaged at 17 points resulting in closing of 4 stations on the 57 km of trackand one bridge. Reinstating works are continuing. The estimated cost for repair andreconstruction is US$ 20 million.

22. Municipal infrastructure: Municipal infrastructure of several towns and villages is heavilydamaged. Iller Bankasi, which is responsible for municipal infrastructure, has reported theurgent need to reconstruct about 130 kilometers of various diameter water supply pipe lines

Page 23

and several pumps at an estimated cost of US$ 3 million. The estimated cost for reinstatingthe municipal infrastructure is US$ 20 million.

23. Housing: It was reported initially that a total of 2,000 houses have to be reconstructed and6,500 repaired. The Prime Ministry estimated that US$ 60 million is needed for housingreconstruction before the onset of cold weather next fall.

24. Telecommunications: Telecommunication lines are severely damaged in most of the disasterarea. There was no telecommunication during the first days of the disaster. Currently mobileand GSM telephone lines are partly operational. Cable lines are not functioning in most ofthe settlement areas. The estimated cost for repair and reinstallation is US$ 5 million.

25. Rural Infrastructure: During the first few days 617 villages were inaccessible due to thedamaged/destroyed rural roads, bridges, culverts and dikes. According to the initialassessments, 94 bridges, 5,250 m retaining walls and 5,883 m culverts, and 318 drinkingwater networks were destroyed in five provinces. Around 851 pieces of heavy equipmentbelonging to General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS) have been working in the areafor restoration of the rural water and power supply, rebuilding transportation infrastructureand embankments, stopping land slides, repairing sewage infrastructure. Due to theseintensive efforts, road passability was somewhat improved for 406 villages by May 29, 1998.GDRS initially estimated that US$ 70 million is required for restoration of rural infrastructureinvestments. No figure is available for irrigation infrastructure since assessments arecontinuing in the field. GDRS notes that all the rural infrastructure should be restored beforewinter.

26. Agriculture: The flood caused damage/loss in the following areas of agricultural sector: i)livestock subsector: cattle, sheep and poultry deaths, loss of honey bees, ii) crop productionsub-sector: loss of field crops, hazelnut plantations, small scale vegetable gardens andorchards, and iii) assets/equipment: destruction of plastic houses/ tunnels, barns, beehives,some farm equipment and tractors. Additionally, nurseries, provincial and county agriculturaloffices and vehicles belonging to Ministry of Agriculture (MARA) were also damaged.MARA reported a total of US$29 million loss: around US$ 4 million for livestock, US$ 8million for seeds/seedlings, US$16 million for orchards and farm assests/equipment, andUS$1 million for MARA assests.

27. Forestry: The flood caused severe damage to forest roads, nurseries, assets (buildings,vehicles, some equipment) of Ministry of Forestry. It also caused loss of logs and otherforest products. The reported initial estimates for loss are: US$16 million for forest roads andrelated infrastructure, US$275,000 for forest products and US$900,000 for the nurseryfacilities.

28. Earthquake Damages: On Saturday, June 27 - during preparation of the emergency floodproject - a major earthquake struck southern Turkey. According to Istanbul's Kandilliobservatory the Earthquake reached 6.3 on the Richter Scale in the province. In spite of themagnitude of the catastrophe, it is reported that "only" around 144 people died in theProvince of Adana. The primary reason for the relatively low loss of life was that theearthquake occurred in a summer month, on a weekend during daytime. Therefore manypeople were outside the buildings. Over 1,000 people were injured.

29. According to official damage reports prepared by the Ministry of Public Works incooperation with Governor and local Authorities, 74,344 household units were damaged by

Page 24

the earthquake. Over 100 investigation teams were assessing the damage and preparingdamage sheets. A team of independent Turkish consultants with an international reputationhired by the Bank mission verified the damage assessment data provided by the Government.Based on the information provided, the costs of damaged household units are calculated atabout US$ 833.7 million. Taking into consideration the additional damage to publicbuildings, municipal infrastructure and manufacturing facilities, the total earthquake damageis estimated over US $ 1 billion.

Table 2: Estimated Damage Costs for Household UnitsHousehold Units Amount Average Cost Total

per Unit CostUSD

Mil USD1) Collapsed or Heavily damaged 18.502 20.000 370.0

2) Repair (medium damages) 40.594 10.000 405.9

3) Repair (light damages) 15.248 3.800 57.8

Total 74.344 _______833.7

Project Objectives

30. The proposed project aims to restore basic infrastructure in communities and rural areasaffected by the flood and the earthquake, to make urgent repairs to the flood managementsystem, and to improve the policy framework and institutional capacity for better flood andearthquake management and mitigation, concentrating on the most heavily affected regions ofTurkey. The most urgent actions should be taken before the end of the construction seasonand the arrival of harsh winter months.

31. The three principal objectives of the proposed project are to assist the Government of Turkey(GOT) in:

a) restoring basic infrastructure in municipalities and rural areas affected by the floodby repairing structures and facilities of economic and social importance,

b) providing assistance to restore housing in the earthquake affected Province of Adana;and

c) reducing vulnerability to future floods and earthquakes.

Page 25

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

Component A. Municipal and Rural Infrastructure (US$ 67.4 million equivalent)

32. The municipal and rural infrastructure component will cover repairs to water and wastewatersystems, municipal, rural, and forest roads and bridges, irrigation facilities in more than 100of the most damaged municipalities and villages. Over 500 specific investments wereidentified for various sectors; detailed listing of specific investments for each location isgiven in Annex A.

33. Criteria andpriorities. The investments included in this component were identified byrepresentatives of municipal and provincial governments in the five project provinces ashaving the highest priority based on local needs. Technical and cost data for each investmenthave been reviewed and analyzed by Turkish experts working with municipal, provincial andnational officials, the PIU, and Bank team. The following criteria have been used forselecting investments to be financed under this component:

- Investments are in communities located within the five flood affected Provinces- Only flood-related damages are eligible for infrastructure investments- Priority projects have been identified as such by the local communities* Projects that prevent health risks to the community- Projects with economic importance to the community (i.e. transport, essential

municipal services).- Projects with social importance- Emergency response projects completed immediately after the flood, but did not

receive any financing* Investments which have no alternative source of funding available= Investments are implemented under controlled and sound construction practice, and

utilize appropriate design which protects against seismic risks- Investments must comply with sound financial, technical and environmental

standards* Investments that are likely to be implemented in a timely manner* Investments have cost-effective design standards

A.] State Highways (US$ 17.1 million equivalent)

34. The sub-component A. 1 covers repair and reconstruction of state highways and bridgesincluding earth works, small structures, fortification, pavement, repair of rock embankments,construction of chutes, as well as construction of new bridges. Some bridges collapsed orwere partly damaged. In addition, roads were damaged in areas where they passed next to thestream bed. A detailed list of investments is provided in Annex A.

35. The General Directorate of State Highways (KGM) prepared a cost estimate for the repair ofthe damaged highways, including bridges, immediately after the flood. The cost ofreconstruction, repair and maintenance were estimated initially at US$100 million. In afollowing step, KGM provided a revised list of investments estimated to cost US$ 78.5million. KGM, the PIU, Turkish consultants and Bank staff further analyzed and reviewedthese projects. As a result of the consultation, KGM identified 63 investments which cover

Page 26

the most urgent needs and are eligible for Bank financing. The cost for these projects is US$17.1 million.

A.2 Rural Services: Drinking Water Supply, Sewerage, Irrigation Facilities, Rural Roadsand Bridges (US$ 38.2 million equivalent)

36. Rural areas were heavily affected by the flood and landslides. Sewerage, water supplysystems and irrigation facilities were damaged. Due to the lack of stable road constructionand sufficient culverts, rural roads slid down hillsides. Under the rural services subcomponent2,004 meters of bridges, hundreds of culverts, 1,166 km of village road stabilization, 263 kmof asphalt road, 268 facilities for drinking water supply and 12 facilities of sewerage will berepaired or reconstructed in the five affected provinces.

37. Physical works included were selected to satisfy the following priorities: the protection ofsurface and groundwater from actual and potential sources of pollution; the provision ofadequate treatment and disinfection facilities to ensure water supply to satisfactory quality;the rehabilitation of distribution systems to provide ready access to public water supplies; therehabilitation of sewerage networks to ensure satisfactory sanitary conditions in affectedareas; and the rehabilitation of sewage treatment where urgently required to maintain orrestore environmental quality. Works to be financed under the Project also includerehabilitation and repair of water sources and water distribution networks, cleaning of thesewage collection and drainage systems, repair or replacement of broken sewers,rehabilitation of treatment plants, and pumping stations.

A.3 Forestry: Forest Roads (US$ 3.7 million equivalent)

38. Forest roads play a vital role in both environmentally sound management of the naturalresources and the employment of the poorest people in rural areas. More than 250,000 peoplelive in forest areas in the Western Black Sea Region and were affected by damaged forestroads. The roads have been constructed for carrying out forestry activities such as plantation,seeding, maintenance, disease and fire prevention, and erosion control. This subcomponentincludes the repair and reconstruction of forest roads, bridges, culverts, and retaining walls. Inorder to guarantee the sustainability of the investments, technical assistance for supervision,as well as design for culverts and bridges will be provided under the project.

A.4. Municipal Roads and Bridges, Water Supply, and Sewerage (US$ 5.2 millionequivalent)

39. In response to a damage survey prepared by the Bank team, local and governmentalauthorities in the WBSR provided primary damage reports. Based on the survey, a team ofTurkish experts were sent to visit the most damaged municipalities in order to prepare adamage assessment report. The results were discussed and reviewed by the PIU and Bankstaffjointly with the consultants. It was found that Karabuk, Yenice, Devrek and Bartin werethe most affected municipalities, in addition to numerous villages, which are covered underthe rural subcomponent (A.2). The municipal infrastructure subcomponent covers the repairand reconstruction of waste water supply, sewerage and storm water system, as well as roadsand bridges. The structures to be rebuilt will be designed to minimize damages from futurefloods. The municipalities will benefit from twelve investments (US$ 5.2 million) whichwere identified under this subcomponent.

A.5 Engineering Designs and Supervision (US$ 3.2 million equivalent)

Page 27

40. Consulting services including engineering designs, preparation of tender documents andconstruction supervision would be financed under this sub-component. This would alsoinclude the assessment of potential impact of the above works on the human and physicalenvironment, consistent with Bank environmental and social assessment procedures.

4 1. Implementation. For the Municipal and Rural Infrastructure Component, the mainimplementation agencies will be the municipalities and General Directorate of Highways,General Directorate of Rural Services, and General Directorate of Forestry under animplementation agreement with the PIU. The goods, works and services financed by the Bankwill be procured in accordance with the Bank's guidelines. Detailed procurement anddisbursement arrangements are set out in Annex D.

Component B. Flood Management and Hazard Reduction (US$ 127.2 million equivalent)

Lessons and Priorities from Turkey's Recent Experience

42. Several lessons are clear from the recent disaster events:

* Although there are disaster mitigation activities being implemented by the GOT, there isno national strategy for disaster mitigation. Without a mitigation strategy, it is likely thatat least some of the recovery and restoration investments from the disaster will face thesame risks.

* The GOT assumes major financial responsibilities for disaster recovery, includinghighways, infrastructure at all levels, telecommunications, electric power transmission,housing, crop and animal loss and agricultural damage, but there is no mechanism to fundthese responsibilities.

* Although the GOT recognizes that building codes can increase the earthquake resistanceof new buildings, and has adopted such codes, enforcement of these codes is inconsistent.

* Although the GOT recognizes that floodplain mapping and landslide-prone area mappingwill mitigate disaster damage, such maps are not being applied to land-use managementin most regions of Turkey and enforcement of land use management is inconsistent.

* Although the GOT knows that there is available technology for flood warning andlandslide warning, this technology is not being applied in Turkey.

* There is no element of government responsible for providing warnings to provinces andmunicipalities in Turkey.

* Communications failures during the flood/landslide event impeded emergency response,and would greatly reduce the ability to provide warnings to provinces and municipalities.

* There is no automated disaster information system in Turkey to effectively communicateneeds and capabilities during and immediately following a disaster.

Page 28

* The hydrotechnical infrastructure damaged by the WBSR disaster provided protection inmany areas, but this infrastructure has been damaged and exposes many municipalities toincreased threat until it is repaired.

Strategy Suggested

43. These lessons indicate that a three-pronged strategy, including a clear policy and strategiesthat will result in reduced flood and landslide damage in the future; a better means offinancing future disaster costs that must be borne by the GOT; and restoration of floodprotection infrastructure system.

44. National Hazard Mitigation Policy and Strategy. The GOT should establish a nationalhazard mitigation policy and develop and adopt legislation to implement that policy. As aresult of that legislation, each element of government in Turkey would develop a mitigationplan for its activities. These plans would examine each activity for opportunities to reducethe potential for future flood damage. For example, all major and minor infrastructure,including highways and railways would be designed and located to minimize damage from allhazards. Land use plans would be developed to show hazardous locations, and land useregulations would be strictly enforced. A national hazard warning and response systemwould reduce the current risk to life and property. Improved methods for agriculture, forestryand other land uses would reduce runoff, erosion and landslides. Many other mitigationmeasures are possible.

45. Natural Disaster Risk Insurance. The GOT should seek ways to fund future disasters toreduce their impact on the annual operating budget. One potential means of funding is floodinsurance.

46. Restoration of the Flood Protection Infrastructure. Many flood protection structures havebeen damaged or destroyed during this disaster. Some of these probably failed due to themagnitude of the flood event. Many failed due to erosion at the toe. Some may have hadflaws in the design or materials used. In many locations, sediment deposited during thisevent significantly reduced the capacity of the river. An analysis should be done on eachstructure to determine if it should be restored to its pre-flood condition, if it should beredesigned to a higher flood protection level, or if a different approach to flood managementshould be taken at that location.

Approach

47. Location of Investments. PilotAreas. This sub-component involves the introduction ofproven technologies that are, however, in part new to Turkey. Hence the various activities tobe carried out will be implemented in selected pilot areas. This will provide the practicalopportunity to train staff, develop protocols and procedures, test systems, and develop,calibrate and test models and other analytical techniques. The technologies and lessonslearned can then subsequently be replicated in other priority areas and basins in Turkey in asystematic manner consistent with available funding or under other, later World Bankfinanced projects.

48. Pilot Programs Two types of pilot areas have been selected for this Sub-component, asoutlined below and in Map 1, to provide an adequate basis on which to develop and test theimproved monitoring, forecasting and warning systems.

Page 29

* Western Turkey -- this large area, covering the area west of a line between the eastern endof the WBSR (# 13) and the Buyuk Menderes basin (#7), including Ankara and Istanbul(Annex I of the PIP) will be the area in which the DMI meteorological monitoring andforecasting system will be upgraded, and the Doppler radar stations will be installed. Thelatter will provide complete coverage of the WBSR as well as adequate coverage of theother pilot basins;

* River Basin Areas - within the Western Turkey pilot area described above, four pilotriver basins, specifically numbers 13 (WBSR), 5 (Gediz), 7 (Buyuk Menderes), and 3(Simov), have been selected for the upgrading of the DSI hydro-met monitoring systemand the development and testing of improved flood forecasting and warning. There is alsoan AGM project for erosion control in selected basins in WBSR

Flood Management and Hazard Reduction Sub-Components

B.1 Flood and Landslide Risk Reduction and Mitigation Component (US$ 1.3 millionequivalent)

49. This sub-component addresses mitigation and mitigation planning on a broad scale. First, theGOT will assess its current mitigation activities, deternine the need for additional mitigationactivities at the state level, and implement the necessary changes in policy to make mitigationpart of the decision-making process for all state government activities. Second, mitigation atthe provincial and municipal levels will be similarly examined, and pilot mitigation projectswill be implemented. Finally, the GOT will pursue the development and implementation ofdisaster insurance to reduce the ongoing and increasing burden of disaster recovery on thestate budget.

3.2 Modernization of the Monitoring, Forecasting, and Warning Systems Component(US$ 36.4 million equivalent)

50. This sub-component includes collection and analysis of real-time hydrological andmeteorological data, to produce disaster forecasts, translation of those forecasts into specificwarnings for specific locations, dissemination of these warnings, and improved responseplanning at the local level. This component provides for pilot projects in several areas inwestern Turkey to develop the capabilities of state and local agencies.

B.3 Improvement of Disaster Response Capabilities. Component (US$ 13.0 millionequivalent)

51. It includes development of a national disaster management information system, improvementof disaster communications and transportation capabilities, and specified equipment fordisaster response. This sub-component specifically includes the communication systemneeded for disaster warning dissemination required for sub-component B.2.

B.4 Repair and Improvement of Flood Protection Infrastructure Component (US$ 76.5million equivalent)

52. In the WBSR, the flood protection infrastructure was damaged. This sub-componentprovides for the immediate repair of parts of this infrastructure, and the repair of other parts

Page 30

after studies are completed to determine what repairs are needed. It also provides for a pilotproject to reduce sedimentation and erosion on selected watersheds and the development ofwatershed basin planning studies.

Component C. Earthquake Reconstruction: (US$ 146.6 million equivalent)

53. Background. On Saturday, June 27 - during preparation of the emergency flood project - amajor earthquake struck southern Turkey. According to Istanbul's Kandilli observatory, theearthquake reached 6.3 on the Richter Scale in the province. In spite of the magnitude of thecatastrophe, it was reported that "only" around 144 people died in the Province of Adana. Theprimary reason for the relatively low loss of life was that the earthquake occurred in asummer month, on a weekend during daytime. Therefore many people were outside thebuildings. Over 1,000 people were injured.

54. The Government immediately responded to the disaster and sent 9,583 tents, 5,138 blankets,133,453 kg dry food and 1,157 units of blood to the region. According to official damagereports prepared by the Ministry of Public Works and Settlement (MPWS) in cooperationwith Governor and local Authorities, 74,344 household units were damaged by theearthquake. Over 100 investigation teams were assessing the damage and preparing damagesheets. A team of independent Turkish consultants with an international reputation hired bythe Bank mission verified the damage assessment data provided by the Government. Basedon the information provided, the costs of damaged household units are calculated at aboutUS$ 833.7 million. Taking into consideration the additional damage to public buildings,municipal infrastructure and manufacturing facilities, the total earthquake damage isestimated over US $ I billion.

55. Institutional and Legal Framework. Because of the frequency and magnitude of naturaldisasters, particularly earthquakes, Turkey has given a high priority to organizing criticaldisaster assistance and civil defense functions. An estimated 65 percent of destroyedbuildings stem from earthquake, and 25 percent from floods and landslides. Because of thepredominance of earthquake losses, the greatest effort of the Government has gone intostrengthening its ability to respond to these disasters. While the Government has madesubstantial investment in local flood protection infrastructure, it has given much less attentionto the capabilities for warning and response to flood and landslide risk and disaster.

56. Institutional arrangements for disaster response are defined in the Disaster Law No. 7269. Atthe apex of the Government's mechanism for responding immediately after a disaster occursis the Central Coordination Committee for Disaster ("Crisis Center"), located in the Office ofthe Prime Minister and Chaired by the Undersecretary for the Ministry of Public Works andSettlements. GDDA of MPWS is the Secretariat of the Crisis Center. Members of the CrisisCenter include representatives of the concerned Directorates within the Ministries withdevelopment responsibilities at the local level (e.g., Interior, Health, Transportation,Agriculture and Rural Affairs), other Ministries that may have a post-disaster role (e.g.,Foreign Affairs, Finance, Education, Defense, Labor and Social Welfare, Environment, etc.)and the Red Crescent Society.

57. GDDA provides the operational hub for the Crisis Center, gathering information fromprovincial and local Authorities, interpreting the situation and conditions, and identifyingspecific needs for personnel, equipment, supplies, material, services and funds to bemobilized through the Crisis Center. These data and recommendations are reported to the

Page 31

Crisis Center, and the response by the concerned Directorates and Ministries coordinated byGDDA.

58. The General Directorate of Civil Defense (GDCD) of the Minister of Interior plays anespecially important role in the Government's response to disasters. GDCD has the task ofmobilizing personnel and equipment to the scene to rescue and assist people trapped,threatened, or injured by the disaster. The GDCD has trained personnel and limitedequipment for this purpose, particularly for the case of flood and landslide disasters, and inmany cases mobilizes equipment from other agencies through the Crisis Center to carryout itstasks (e.g, pumps from DSI). GDCD mobilizes Civil Rescue Troops from areas outside thedisaster affected Provinces, joins these teams with Provincial Civil Defense Troops, and localUrgent Aid and Rescue Teams, according to the conditions and needs it finds in the disasterarea.

59. Disaster Law 7269 also defines the assistance that the Government provides to the victims ofnatural disasters. Since 1959 and under the provisions of Disaster Law, the Governmentassumed full responsibility for natural disasters. In the past, disaster recovery was financed bythe two non-budgetary funds (disaster fund and the earthquake fund), and budget allocationsas well as cost recovery from previous assistance provided to disaster victims. Sources offunds for them, were among other things, earmarked taxes from cigarettes, alcohol etc.However, recently these funds were brought in to the general budget and annual allocationsare made by the parliament. The budget allocation for disaster assistance is not sufficient tocover the operating costs of the General Directorate of Disasters. Allocations for disasterassistance are made on an as needed basis. Clearly, under the current environment thegovernment will continue to be responsible to provide coverage for disaster victims, whichposes a major threat to the government budget. Under Law 7269, the Ministry of PublicWorks is responsible for reconstruction of housing damaged by natural disasters. TheMinistry of Public Works can request the Housing Development Administration to assist inthe reconstruction process.

60. Damage Assessment Requirements. Government assessors determine damage for eachstructure for which assistance is requested. Units which have collapsed or beyond repair areclassified as heavily damaged. Structures which can be repaired for 30 % and 5% of its totalreplacement cost, are classified as a medium and lightly damaged respectively.

61. Beneficiary Selection Criteria. Parallel to damage assessment and based on the followingcriteria those families eligible for assistance according to Law 7269 and related regulationsare determined by a committee. The committee consists of one representative each from thecity council, ministry of public works, title registration office, provincial government and thedistrict official (muhtar). Current disaster law has strict provisions targeting only the needyfamilies affected by the disaster for assistance. To qualify for assistance families must applyfor assistance and satisfy the following criteria:

* Families and married children of families, who are residing in units owned by theirparents, are eligible for disaster assistance.

* Assistance is provided only to the least damaged unit, in case the family within themunicipal boundaries of principal residence owns more than one unit.

* No assistance shall be provided to families who own an undamaged unit within themunicipal boundaries of principal residence.

* Beneficiaries must have full title to the damaged property.

Page 32

62. In addition to the above, the following criteria are adopted for this project:

* Assistance under this project is limited to collapsed and heavily damaged rural housingand urban multi family units

* Investments must be implemented under controlled and sound construction practices, andutilize appropriate cost effective design standards which protect against future seismicrisks

* Investments must comply with environmental standards* Investments likely to be implemented in a timely manner

63. The resettlement of families in urban areas is voluntary, no resettlement will be required inrural areas.

64. Housing Standards. Current law does not specify the size of the unit to be provided to thebeneficiaries, however traditionally an average of 77 net m2 is considered acceptablestandard. Under the previous EQ project in Erzincan, the Bank financed cooperatives andbuildings for government employees. Based on PCU disbursement documents the averageconstruction cost per unit in Erzincan is approximately US$ 19,000 for buildings andUS$6,000 for infrastructure bringing the total cost to US$25,000.

65. Under the proposed loan, beneficiary contributions are sought. Moreover, appropriate andbasic finishing standards and services, which satisfy hygienic and safety requirements will beprovided. Beneficiaries are encouraged to improve the standards with their owncontributions.

66. Under this project basic finishing standards relative to those of previous disaster housingreconstruction are adopted. Central heating, solar water heaters and kitchen appliancesvalued at US$ 5,950 or approximately 23% of the total cost of the unit will be excluded fromthe project for urban housing. As a result, it is expected that the building and infrastructureconstruction costs financed by the Bank will not exceed US$19,800 per unit. In urbanreconstruction, to reduce the unit cost or allow beneficiary contribution, alternativetechnologies and sites were considered but rejected due to likely delays in implementation,which would conflict with the objective of rapid disbursement for this emergency project.However, the project design allows for a significantly different approach in rural areas,resulting in greater cost savings to the government.

67. In rural areas design, materials and technical assistance and training will be provided by theproject, finance up to $10,000 per unit.

68. Cost Recovery. There are two elements of cost recovery in the Earthquake ReconstructionComponent of this project: loans to disaster victims and beneficiary contributions. Thedisaster legislation stipulates that disaster beneficiaries will repay loans in 20 years, includinga 2-year grace period with 0.0% interest. Assuming an annual inflation at 50% (the currentBank and IMF estimate for the years 1999 and 2000), the cost recovery of the disaster loan isapproximately 5%. The second cost recovery element is voluntary beneficiary participationin the cost of construction which is expected to average US$ 5,950 or 23% of the estimatedunit cost of construction of housing in urban Adana and Ceyhan, and US$ 4,200 or 30%beneficiary participation in the rural housing.

Page 33

69. The composite cost recovery for the Earthquake Reconstruction Component C is estimated at39% with inflation at 20%. With inflation at 50% and 10% cost recovery is 29% and 53%respectively. More details of this calculation broken down into rural and urban sub-components are provided in Annexes A and C of the PIP.

70. Progress Since Erzincan EQ Project. Although sector reforn has been slow, some progresshas been made in this regard, as listed below:

* The earthquake building construction code related to the construction standards underLaw 3195 has been revised and currently is being enforced.

* By-laws regulating the licensing of contractors have been modified to better screen andregulate the contracting industry in Turkey. As a result overall improvement inconstruction quality is expected.

* Earthquake maps have been revised and distributed throughout the country* A campaign to increase public awareness about disaster preparation and safety measures

has been started and is ongoing.* Training materials for contractors and workers at all levels have been prepared, and

training is ongoing.* Amendments to the reconstruction Law 3194 and its by-laws for inclusion of a new

construction control system and measures of resistance against disasters are under study.* Insurance against natural disasters is available and being utilized on a voluntary basis

throughout the country at rates that vary between 0.25 to 5.0 per 1,000, depending on thelocation and type of construction.

* HDA now requires beneficiaries carry such insurance for housing constructed by theagency.

71. Policy reforms to be supported The government will analyze the possibilities of extendingdisaster insurance coverage in Turkey:

* to cover all units financed by HDA in all of their programs such as the municipal andcooperative programs;

* to cover all government financed construction;* to modify the Disaster Law to require disaster insurance in order to qualify for disaster

relief; and* to require professional liability insurance and corporate liability insurance for contractors.

72. Revisions to the Disaster Law are under consideration by the Government. The revised lawwill consider:

* excluding providing relief for buildings that do not comply with building codes.* improving cost recovery of any loan by indexing amounts borrowed to inflation.

Earthquake Reconstruction Sub-Components

73. The Earthquake Reconstruction component will cover technical assistance, design,supervision, training and investments to replace 4,000 collapsed or heavily damagedhousehold units in the Municipality of Adana, 1000 household units in Ceyhan, and 3,800household units in the most affected rural areas:

C .1 Demolition of Damaged Units (US$ 1.0 million equivalent)

Page 34

74. Costs associated with the demolition and the removal of debris is estimated at about US$ 1.0million. Demolition and debris removal are eligible for retroactive finance under the Bankapproved guidelines for this emergency project.

C.2 Emergency Urban Housing Reconstruction: (US$ 99.0 million equivalent)

C. 2 a. Adana (US$ 79.2 million equivalent)

75. Approximately 1 1,601 units were destroyed, of which about 8,000 are estimated to eligiblefor reconstruction. The Bank will finance about 4,000 units on a site owned by HDA. Totalcost of construction of buildings and infrastructure is estimated at US$ 79.2 million.

76. For reconstruction of housing several site selection options were considered. First optionexamined was to rebuild destroyed units on its existing site. This option appears to be onlyfeasible for single family units, and therefore adopted in rural reconstruction component. Formulti family units, onsite reconstruction creates major legal problems when some owners ofmultifamily units do not qualify for disaster relief. It would require years to resolve theselegal issues, and therefore would not meet the emergency loan requirements for speedydisbursement.

77. Seven sites suitable for the development of emergency housing have been identified in Adanaby local consultants contracted by the Bank. These sites have been evaluated based inter aliaon availability of infrastructure, ownership, zoning and capacity. For each site a title searchwas completed and only four out of seven sites was determined to be suitable for residentialdevelopment. Among the four sites ranked, the HDA site received the highest score, is readyfor implementation and therefore was selected for the 4,000 units to be financed under thisloan. The selected site was previously considered for another Bank project and much workwas completed towards preparation.

78. Preliminary design and engineering studies for this development is being undertaken by HDAto enable expeditious construction of housing needed for the earthquake victims. HDA isproposing 5 story walk-up apartments suitable for "tunnel form" construction. The proposedtunnel form construction method is appropriate for this project because of its speedadvantages.

79. It is anticipated that small contracts of 400 - 500 units will be let to expedite completion ofconstruction and assure quality.

C.2 b Ceyhan (US$ 19.8 million equivalent)

80. Approximately 1,472 units were destroyed and heavily damaged. It is estimated that 1,000units will meet the eligibility criteria and be constructed in Ceyhan in for families affected bythe earthquake. To reduce the cost of site development it is proposed that 1,000 units beconstructed on their original sites. The cost is estimated as US$ 19.8 million. (see Table 4)

Page 35

Table 3: Estimated Construction Replacement CostLocation Household Cost per Unit Cost

Units Basic Housing TotalNumber $ Miu US$

Adana 4,000 19,800 79,200Ceyhan 1,000 19,800 19,800Rural Areas 3,800 10,000 38,000Sum 8,800 137,000

Packaging of Contracts

81. The construction costs of household units for Adana and Ceyhan are estimated at US$ 99.9million. To successfully complete this work in a short period of time, the HDA shouldpackage the work to contracts whose total value would be between US$ 15 and 20 millioneach. This will have the following advantages:

X Expedite Contract Award: PIU will be able to better manage the contract award of 5 to 7contracts as opposed to 40 contracts (assuming an average value were in the order of US$2 to 3 million each).

* Attract Qualified Contractors: There are a number of well qualified Turkish internationalcontractors who have the experience, capacity, organizational and staffing skills, andfinancial backing to undertake a larger volume of work in a short period of time. Thesefirms will have the capacity to quickly mobilize with labor and equipment. However,these firms will only be interested if the contract value is between 450 and 600 units.Likewise, if contract value were small, only smaller companies with lower capacity andquality standards would be interested.

* Better Pricing: By attracting larger companies, the project will gain from economies ofscale. Large contracts reduce the relative overhead, management, and supervision costs.

* Better Quality of work: The larger firms are able to hire more experienced engineers andmanagement staff. This will ensure better work and timely completion.

C3: Emergency Rural Housing Reconstruction (US$ 38.0 million equivalent)

82. The beneficiaries under the supervision of independent consultants will undertake theconstruction activities. Construction training will be provided, through which thebeneficiaries will gain qualification and experience in the construction of seismic resistantbuildings. In addition, standard designs will be provided. No modification will be made to thestandard designs without the approval of the PIU. The supervision will be provided eitherthrough the consultants to be employed by the PIU or through the PIU staff, as appropriate.

83. The beneficiaries will purchase materials according to the technical specifications providedby the consultants. No materials are allowed to be used without prior approval by the PIU.

84. Payments to beneficiaries will be made in increments. The first advance payment will bemade to the beneficiaries only after evidence of clear title to the land is provided by thebeneficiaries. The remaining payments will be made in stages as approved by the PIU.

Page 36

Similar methods were successfully utilized under the Bank financed Erzincan Earthquakeproject (Loan 351 1-TU).

85. Under this sub-component, 3,800 household units will be repaired or reconstructed. The totalcost is estimated at US$ 38.0 million.

C 4: Consultant Servicefor Design, Construction Supervision and Management

C 4.1 Urban Housing (US$ 5.6 million equivalent)

86. Consultant services are required to prepare site plans, on site infrastructure, architectural andstructural design for apartment blocks and supervision of construction during implementationof the Emergency Urban Housing Reconstruction sub-component.

87. The PIU will prepare with the Bank assistance consultant TORs for the social assessmentstudy by September 1, and will hire consultants immediately thereafter.

88. The consultants will be responsible for:

3 preparing designs for the site, on-site infrastructure and buildings in accordance withcriteria established for the project

- assuring timely approval of designs and quality of construction

C 4.2 Rural Housing (US$ 3.0 million equivalent)

89. Consultants will prepare standard designs and provide training, construction management andsupervision. This includes services to approximately 20 affected villages in the Province ofAdana. In addition, the consultants will be responsible for design of standard units, superviseand assure compliance that specified materials are purchased, supervise construction, andapprove payments according to progress in construction.

Component D. Project Implementation Unit (US$ 3.9 million equivalent)

90. The Government of Turkey entrusted the Housing Development Administration (HDA) withauthority and responsibility for the implementation of the project. The HDA shall carry out itsactivities under the Project through the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), which is the sameunit that has successfully assisted the implementation of the Erzincan Project (Loan 3511-TU), and the Adana Management Unit (AMU), which is to be established and maintainedwithin the HDA in Ankara and Adana, respectively, with staff and other resources. The PIUand the AMU shall carry out the Project with the overall policy guidance of the SteeringCommittee and in close coordination with the related Ministries/Agencies, pursuant toarrangements satisfactory to the Borrower and the Bank.

91. The PIU will have the overall responsibility for managing and coordinating theimplementation of the Project and in its work will be supported by consulting firms (theConsultants) to be engaged by the HDA, through PIU, pursuant to arrangements satisfactoryto the World Bank. The tasks to be carried out by the PIU are:

Page 37

(a) Establish and equip the PIU office as soon as possible (see a tentative budget below);

(b) Establish and equip for the Adana Management Unit (AMU) office, engage its staff;

(c) Assemble and document all available information concerning the implementation ofthe various components of the project (investment program, detailed studies, costestimate, existing designs and design criteria, etc.). Analyze existing informationand data for sufficiency, in order to identify data gaps and the need for additionalstudies, if any, and any overlaps with ongoing/planned investment activities by otherinstitutions;

(d) Prepare detailed ToRs for the Consultants, which shall incorporate scope of studies,engineering and design requirements, preparation of bidding documents andcontracts for construction works, goods and consultancy services, and provide themfor approval by the president of HDA and the World Bank prior to signing thecontract.

(e) Monitor compliance with Turkish and Bank environmental regulations by employingan Environmental Specialist.

(f) Establish the work program and the implementation schedule for each component,and define precisely the responsibilities of each party involved including the PIU,the Ministry/Agency, the Consultant, the World Bank, etc. Prepare a "Pert" or a"Bar Chart" showing all these activities and the time planned for each activity;

(g) Make direct inquiries and receive proposals from third parties for the purpose of:

* the engagement of Consultants' services including studies, design, supervisionand control of construction;

3 construction of works; and

* procurement of goods, including evaluation of bids, if required assistance maybe sought from Consultants.

92. Detailed implementation arrangements for each Project Component are described in aseparate Project Implementation Plan.

TURKEY EMERGENCY FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECTChart 1: Project Components and Related Agencies

SteeringCommittee

Component A Component B Component C Component D

Municipal and Rural Flood Mitigation and Earthquake Project ImplementationInfrastructure Natural Hazard Rehabilitation Administration

Reduction

I I, , , I__

KGM, GDRS, GDF, DSI, DMI, GDTRI, HDA, MPWS PIU AMUmunicipalities GDDA, GDCD, GDI, EEI

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ and AGM_ _ _ _ _ _ _

Page 38

TURKEY: EMERGENCY FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECTChart 2: Component A

COMPONENT A: Municipal and Rural Infrastructure

State Rural Forestry Muwcipal Engineer.Highways Services Services Designs

-Forest and-Highways *Drinking Roads * Roads Supervis.-and bridges Water Supply -Bridges -Bridges

*Sewerage*Culverts -Water

*Irrigation supply-Facilities -Retaining

Walls -Sewerage*Rural Roadsand Bridges

Page 39

TURKEY: EMERGENCY FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECTChart 3: Component B

COMPONENT B - Flood and Landslide Hazard Reduction

Sub-Component B.1 Sub-Component B.2 Sub-Component B.3 Sub-Component B.4

Flood and Landslide Hazard Modemization of the Improving Response Repair of Flood ProtectionMitigation Policy and Strategy Forecasting, Waming and Capabilifies Infrastructure

Response Systems *Repair of damaged flood protectioninfrastructure

*Hazard Mitigation Policy eModemization of the Hydro- *Modern disaster management eSediment Transport Studies and*Legislative Reform meteorological monitoring system information system revision of channel improvementeDisaster Area Management and *Improved forecasting *Reliable communication and criteriaMitigation eModern integrated warning and transport *Basin flood protection strategieseHazard Risk Insurance Studies response system *Improved Civil Defense and plans

response capability *Watershed reforestation andmanagement and erosion control

*GD Disaster Affairs *State Hydraulic Works (DSI) *GD Disaster Affairs *State Hydraulic Works (DSI)(MOPWS) *State Meteorological (MOPWS) *GD Reforestation and*GD Technical Research and Institute (DMI) *GD Civil Defense (MOIA) Erosion Control (MOF)Implementation (MOPWS) *GD - Electric Survey and *GD Technical Research and*GD Insurance (Treasury) Administration (EIE) Implementation (MOPWS)

oGD Disaster Affairs(MOPWS)*GD Technical Research andImplementation (MPOWS)

Page 40

TURKEY: EMERGENCY FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECTChart 4: Component C

COMPONENT C - Earthquake Reconstruction

Sub-Component C.1 Sub-Component C.2 Sub-Component C.3 Sub-Component C.4

Demolition of Damaged Emergency Urban Emergency Rural Consultant Service forUnits and Removal of Housing Reconstruction Housing Reconstruction Design, Construction

Debris Supervisions and* C.2.a Adana Management

C.2.b Ceyhan * C.4.a Urban Housing

*C.4.b Rural Housing

*C.4.c On and Off-SiteInfrastructure for HousingSites

Page 41

Annex 3


Project Cost Summary

% % Total(US$ Million) Foreign Base

Local Foreign Total Exchange Costs

A. Municipal and Rural Infrastructure 198.2 3.2 201.4 3 31

B. Flood Management and Hazard Reduction1. Basin Flood Protection Planning 1.4 - 1.4 -

2. Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning 41.9 - 41.9 - 63. Investment in Flood Protection Infrastructure 14.4 - 14.4 - 24. Flood Hazard reduction 29.5 58.4 88.0 66 14

Subtotal Flood Management and Hazard Reduction 87.3 58.4 145.7 40 23

C. Earthquake Rehabilitation 190.0 101.3 291.3 35 45

D. Project Implementation Support 4.3 0.2 4.5 3 1

E. Front End Fee - 3.7 3.7 100 1

Total BASELINE COSTS 479.7 166.8 646.5 26 100Physical Contingencies 20.0 8.2 28.1 29 4Price Contingencies 6.5 3.5 10.0 35 2

Total PROJECT COSTS 506.0 179.0 685.0 26 106

* Figures may slightly differ due to rounding.

Page 42

Page 43

Annex 4

Cost-Benefit or Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Summary

[not applicable]

Page 44

Annex 5

Turkey

Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Project

Components by Financiers(US$ Million)

The Government IBRD Total

Amount % Amount % %

A. Municipal and Rural Infrastructure 139.1 66.5 70.1 33.5 209.2 30.6

B. Flood Management and Hazard Reduction1. Basin Flood Protection Planning 0.4 27.8 1.1 72.2 1.5 0.22. Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning 6.0 13.0 40.0 87.0 46.0 6.73. Investment in Flood Protection Infrastructure 2.0 13.0 13.5 87.0 15.5 2.34. Flood Hazard reduction 14.3 15.0 81.2 85.0 95.6 14.0Subtotal Flood Management and Hazard Reduction 22.8 14.4 135.8 85.6 158.6 23.2

C. Earthquake Rehabilitation 152.3 49.4 156.1 50.6 308.3 45.0

D. Project Implementation Support 0.6 13.0 4.2 87.0 4.8 0.7

E. Front End Fee - - 3.7 100.0 3.7 0.5315.0 46.0 369.0 54.0 685.0 100.0

Page 45

Annex 6

Turkey: Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery ProjectProcurement and Disbursement Arrangements

Procurement

The procurement of goods under the project will be conducted in accordance with theBank's guidelines "Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits, January 1996, revisedAugust 1996 and September 1997". The procurement of consultants will follow the Bank'sguidelines, "Selection of Consultants by World Bank Borrower, January 1997 revised September1997". The goods, works and services not financed by the Bank will be procured in accordancewith national regulations, or the regulations of the cofinancing institutions. A GeneralProcurement Notice will be published in the Development Business and in its issue of August 31,1998, and in the national press.

Procurement methods (Table A). Simplified ICB will be used for procurement of goodsand technical services (for contracts estimated to cost US$2.5 million equivalent or more each)and for civil works (for contracts estimated to cost US$5 million equivalent or more each). Forworks contracts estimated to cost less than US$5 million each, National Competitive Bidding(NCB) will be applied. International Shopping (IS) will be used for goods contracts estimated tocost less than US$250,000 equivalent each. Civil works contracts up to US$500,000 equivalenteach will be procured using the procedures for procurement of minor works, i.e., obtaining atleast three quotations from qualified contractors. For ICB, the Bank's Standard BiddingDocuments will be used. Construction materials for repairs to the damaged housing units,estimated to cost up to US$2,500 each, will be purchased in accordance with the traditional localpurchasing practices applicable to such purchases. Force Account method will be used for theprocurement under retroactive financing of materials, machinery and commodities in theaggregate of US$4.3 million bought immediately after the disasters.

Consultants' assignments estimated to cost less than US$200,000 per contract will beprocured through Quality and Cost Based Selection (QCBS) for which shortlists will compriseonly domestic consulting firms: assignments above US$200,000 will also be procured throughQCBS but these assignments will be advertised in the Development Business and in the nationalpress for expression of interest. Design and engineering services will be procured through LeastCost Selections Method (LCSM). Individual consultants will be procured in accordance with theprocedure in Part V of the Consultant Guidelines. The Bank's Standard Request for Proposalsand Forms of Contracts will be used.

Prior review thresholds (Table B). All ICB contracts for goods and works and the firstNCB contract will be subject to the Bank's prior review. The NCB draft bidding documents willbe based on the Bank's Standard Bidding Documents for Small Works and will have to besubmitted to the Bank for acceptance before their use. All consultants' contracts estimated tocost US$200,000 or more each (for firms) and US$100,000 equivalent or more each (forindividuals), will be subject to the Bank's review. Terms of Reference for all assignments,regardless of their value, will be reviewed by the Bank before the beginning of the selection

Page 46

process. All other contracts for goods, works and services which are not subject to prior revieware subject to post review.

Disbursement

Allocation of loan proceeds::

The loan will be disbursed over a period of 3 years. Disbursements will be made against eligibleproject expenditures for goods, including technical services, works and consultants' services. Asshown in Table C, goods will be financed at 100% for imported (foreign) items, 100% for thosefrom ex-factory sources, and at 85% for locally purchased items. Civil works will be financed at85%, and consultants' services at 100% (excluding taxes), operating cost will also be financed100%. Retroactive financing for expenditures incurred after June 8, 1998 up to a limit of 20%(i.e., US$ 73.8 million) of the loan, will be permissible to allow the immediate start of emergencyreconstruction and repair activities.

Use of Statement of Expenditures (SOEs):

All disbursements against contracts below the following thresholds will be made againstStatement of Expenditures:

US$5.0 million for civil worksUS$2.5 million for goodsUS$100,000 for consulting firms contractsUS$50,000 for individual consultants contracts

For these expenditures under SOE, detailed supporting documents evidencing payments tocontractors and suppliers will be kept at the PIU. These documents would be made available forthe required audits as well as to the Bank supervision missions upon request.

All other expenditures above the SOE thresholds will be submitted on the basis of fulldocumentation.

Special Account

To facilitate disbursement against eligible expenditures, the Government would establish in aCommercial Bank (or in the Central Bank) a Special Account (SA) to be operated by the PIUunder terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank. The Bank would, upon request, make anAuthorized Allocation of US$25.0 million. Applications for the replenishment of the SA wouldbe submitted monthly or when 20 percent of the initial deposit has been utilized, whicheveroccurs earlier. The replenishment application would be supported by the necessarydocumentation, the SA bank statement, and a reconciliation of this bank statement. The SAwould be audited annually by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank.

Page 47

Annex 6Table A

TURKEY: EMERGENCY FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECT

Procurement Methods (US$ million equivalent)Category Procurement Methods Total

ICB NCB Other N.B.F Cost

I Works 120.75 135.5 35.0 257.6 548.35(105.0) (110.80) (33.97)1

2 Goods and Materials 48.30 51.00 99.30(38.50) (46.98)2 (85.48)

3 Consultant Services 32.00 32.00(28.48)3 (28.48)

4 Operating Costs 1.70 1.70(1.50)4 (1.50)

5 Front-End Fee 3.65 3.65(3.65) (3.65)

Total 169.05 135.5 123.35 257.6 685.0(143.50) (110.80) (114.58) - (368.88)

NBF= Not Bank Financed. Figures in parenthesis are Bank-financed amounts1/ Minor Works ($33.97m)2/ Construction Materials (US$ 40.6 million) contracts estimated US$2,500 each to be procuredby eligible homeowner through their traditional purchasing practice. i.e. comparing prices fromdifferent shops. IS contract of US$5.8 million, and NS contract of US$ 585 thousand3/ QCBS ($22.00 million); LCSM ($4.22 million); and Individuals ($2.26 million)4/ Operating costs to be incurred in accordance with biannual budget and procedures satisfactoryto the Bank.

Page 48

Annex 6TURKEY: EMERGENCY FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECT

TABLE B - PROCUREMENT REVIEW

Goods and ICB NCB IS NS Minor Works Other methods Percentage of loan amount subjectCivil Works to prior reviewProcurement G >$2.5 m W <$5.0 m <$2.5 m <$0.25 m <$0.5 m Purchase ofthresholds: ($38.5 m) ($110.80 m) ($4.22 m) ($0.585 m) ($33.97 m) const. mats.individual and W >$5.0 m <$2,500aggregate ($105.0 m) ($40.6 m)Prior Review All $0.450 m $143.5 m or 38% ofthe loan

$143.5 m amountConsultants QCBS QBS Fixed Budget LCS Qualifications Individuals

Procurement >$0.2 m <$0.2 m <$O.100 eachmethod ($22.2 m) ($4.22 m) contractthresholds ($2.26 m)Prior Review All All Only TORs and $26.22 m or 7%

($22.2 m) ($4.22 m) terms of______________ _____________ ___________ em ploym ent

Expost Review Explain briefly the ex-post review mechanism: Ex-post review will be conducted by supervision missions which will include aprocurement specialist. Assistance of the procurement assistance in the Resident Mission will also be sought in conducting regular ex-post reviews.

Brief statementThe Housing Development Administration (HAD) will have overall responsibility for project implementation, including procurement. The HAD will beassisted by the PIU in this responsibility. The PIU already exists and has previous experience in implementing Bank-financed projects. It is being furtherstrengthened through additional staffing and equipment. Since several implementation agencies will be involved in project implementation, each of them,assisted by PIU, will conduct their own procurement in accordance with agreed procedures and timetable.Country Procurement Assessment Report or Country Are the bidding documents for the procurement actions of the first year ready byProcurement Strategy Paper status: A CPAR has been negotiationsprepared. (May 30, 1997) Yes O No x

Page 49


TABLE B - PROCUREMENT REVIEW CONTINUEDSection 3: Training, Information and Development on ProcurementEstimated date of Estimated date of Indicate if there is Domestic Preference for Domestic Preference for Works, ifProject Launch publication of General procurement subject to Goods applicableWorkshop Procurement Notice mandatory SPN in Yes r No .,10/00_/98_ 08/31/98 Development Business Yes rI No L

Yes xNo C

Retroactive financing Advance procurementYes x No L-i Explain 20% for goods works and services after June Yes Cl No aI Explain:

8, 1998, for contracts concluded in accordance with Bank procurement guidelinesExplain briefly the Procurement Monitoring System: Procurement monitoring will be part of the project monitoring and evaluation system.Project monitoring will be conducted through supervision missions and progress report. In addition, the procurement specialist in the ResidentMission will monitor procurement implementation on a regular basis.

Co-financing: Explain briefly the procurement arrangements under co-financing: NOT APPLICABLE.

Section 4: Procurement StaffingIndicate name of Procurement Staff or Bank's staff part of Task Team responsible for the procurement in the Project: Name: Naushad Khan,Procurement Specialist at HQ and Ibrahim Sirer, Procurement Specialist at RM

Explain briefly the expected role of the Field Office in procurement: Mr. Sirer, in cooperation with Mr. Khan will play an active role in thesupervision of the procurement under the project.

Page 50

Turkey: Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery ProjectTable C: Allocation of Loan Proceeds

(US$ Million)

Annex 6, Table C: Allocation of Loan proceeds(US$ Million)

Loan FinancingAmount Percentage

1. Works 236.85 100%

2. Goods, materials 80.00 100% of foreign expenditures;100% of local expenditures (ex-fa .tory cost);85% of local expenditures for other items procured

locally3. Consultant's services 22.00 100%4. Operating Costs 1.50 90%5. Refunding of Project 1.50 100%Preparation Advance6 Fee 3.65 100%6. Unallocated 23.50Total 369.00

Page 51


Project Processing Budget and Schedule

A. Project Budget (US$000) Planned Actual(At final PAD stage)

B. Project Schedule Planned Actual(At final PAD stage)

Time taken to prepare the project (months)First Bank mission (identification) 6/3/1998 6/13/1998Appraisal mission departure 8/3/1998 8/3/1998Negotiations 8/13/1998 8/13/1998Planned Date of Effectiveness 10/15/1998 _/_/19_

Bank staff who worked on the project included:

Name SpecialtyPiotr Wilczynski Project Management & ImplementationMargret Thalwitz Quality ReviewNedret Durutan Agriculturalist/Rural Dev. SpecialistWalter Garvey Water Resources

Leslie Bond Water ResourcesFrench Wetmore Water ResourcesOlgun Ersenkal InfrastructureAhimet Gokce Civil Engineering

Christoph Pusch Environmental EngineeringAmy Evans Institutional Analyst

Sophie Wille Environmental EconomistNaushad Khan ProcurementIbrahim Sirer Procurement

Barbara Santos Legal ReviewAly Abu-Akeel Legal ReviewAlptekin Orhon Financial Management

Peter Doty Financial ManagementRohan Selvaratnam Operations Analyst

Saffet Atik Urban PlanerUral Aba Architect

Umit Ediz ArchitectCirak Munis Civil Engineer

Zibel A Cumhur Civil EngineerFuruzan Bilir Disbursement

Hannah Koilpillai DisbursementHulya Bayramoglu General Support

Ulker Karamullaoglu General Support

Page 52


Documents in the Project File*

A. Aide Memoire (June 17,1998)

B. Back-to-Office (June 30, 1998)

C. Project Information Document (PID)

D. Project Implementation Plan (PIP)

E. Project Appraisal Document (PAD)

F. Loan Agreement

G. Consultant Reports

* Municipal Infrastructure Damage Assessment

* Earthquake Damage Assessment

*Including electronic files.

Page 53

Annex 9Status of Bank Group Operations in Turkey

Statement of Loans and Credits

Difference Betweenexpected

Original Amount in USS Millions and actualLoan or Fiscal disbursements a/

Project ID Credit No. Year Borrower PurposeLBRD IDA Cancellations Undisbursed Orig Frn Rev'd

Number of Closed Loans/credits: 204

Active LoansTR-PE-48852 IBRD43440 1998 TEAS NATL. TRNSM. GRIT) 270.00 0.00 0.00 270.00 2.00 0.00TR-PE-8985 IBRD43150 1998 CESME - ALACATI UNION CESME W.S. & SEWER. 13.10 0.00 0.00 13.10 .10 0.00TR-PE-9072 IBRD42350 1998 REP. OF TURKEY PRIV. OF IRRIGATION 20.00 0.00 0.00 19.50 2.60 0.00TR-PE-9089 1BRD43550 1998 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY BASIC ED 1 300.00 0.00 0.00 300.00 0.00 0.00TR-PE-45073 IBRD40890 1997 GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY OIL PIPELINE ENG. 5.00 0.00 0.00 3.50 3.00 0.00TR-PE-9095 IBRD42010 1997 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY PRIM HEALTH CARE SER 14.50 0.00 0.00 14.50 3.10 0.00TR-PE-35759 IBRD39420 1996 GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY PUBLIC FINAN. MGT. 62.00 0.00 0.00 59.47 25.37 0.00TR-PE-38091 IBRD4048A 1996 GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY ROAD IMPR. & SAFETY 150.00 0.00 0.00 142.08 18.03 0.00TR-PE-38091 1BRD40490 1996 GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY ROAD IMPR. & SAFETY 100.00 0.00 0.00 48.05 18.03 0.00TR-PE-9076 IBRD3802A 1995 GOVERNMENT HEALTHII 136.17 0.00 0.00 109.58 65.12 0.00TR-PE-9093 1BRD38936 1995 ANTALYA WATER SUPPLY AND ANTALYA WATER SUPPLY 100.00 0.00 0.00 86.06 17.57 0.00TR-PE-9102 IBRD3728A 1994 GOT PRIVATIZATION IMPLEM 82.81 0.00 27.25 49.20 76.44 8.46TR-PE-9023 1BRD3567A 1993 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY E. ANATOLIA WATERSBE 62.48 0.00 0.00 54.28 48.05 0.00TR-PE-9064 IBRD3541A 1993 GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT&TRAININ 48.82 0.00 0.00 41.73 28.88 0.00TR-PE-9064 MBRD3541S 1993 GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT & TRAININ 18.18 0.00 0,00 .05 28.88 0.00TR-PE-9065 1BRD3565A 1993 MUN. OF BURSA/BUSKI BURSA WATER & SANITA 85.61 0.00 20.00 46.15 20.32 2.17TR-PE-9065 IBRD3566A 1993 MUN. OF BURSA/BUSKI BURSA WATER & SANITA 7.84 0.00 0.00 6.91 20.32 2.17TR-PE-9065 1BRD3565S 1993 MUN.OFBURSAIBUSKI BURSAWATER&SANITA 31.39 0.00 0.00 .07 20.32 2.17TR-PE-9099 IBRD3511A 1993 GOVT.OFTURKEY EARTHQUAKERECONSTRU 58.90 0.00 0.00 53.77 65.76 36.96TR-PE-9044 IBRD3472A 1992 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY AGRIC. RESEARCH 34.70 0.00 0.00 24.08 28.22 .72TR-PE-9044 MBRD3472S 1992 REPUBLIC OF TURKEY AGRIC. RESEARCH 14.30 0.00 0.00 .16 28.22 .72TR-PE-9097 MBRD3477A 1992 GOT TAFORTREASURYDATA 2.12 0.00 0.00 1.34 1.35 0.00TR-PE-9058 MBRD3296A 1991 GOV. OF TURKEY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPME 42.30 0.00 0.00 16.81 16.79 0.00TR-PE-9071 1BRD3345A 1991 TEAS/TEDAS TEKRESTRUCT. 69.88 0.00 0 00 44.85 81.76 0.00TR-PE-9071 IBRD33451 1991 TEAS,TEDAS TEKRESTRUCT. 40.00 0.00 0.00 36.92 81.76 0.00TR-PE-9029 IBRD3192A 1990 GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY NATIONAL EDUCATION D 57.28 0.00 0.00 44.50 44.76 0.00TR-PE-9029 IBRD3192S 1990 GOVERNMENTOFTURKEY NATIONALEDUCATIOND 17.88 0.00 0.00 .22 44.76 0.00TR-PE-9061 IBRD315IA 1990 ANKARAWS&SGEN.DIRECTOR ANKARASEWERAGE 25.13 0.00 0.00 6.30 72.30 6.30TR-PE-9030 IBRD3057A 1989 GOVERNMENT HEALTH I 26.77 0.00 0.00 7.92 8 67 0.00

Total 1,897.16 0.00 47.25 1,501.10 872 59.67

Active Loans Closed Loans TotalTotal Disbursed (BRD and IDA): 330.47 9,999.51 10,329.98

of which has been repaid: 5.20 6,991.81 6,997.01Total now held by IBRD and IDA: 1,844.70 3,017.64 4,862.34Amount sold : 0.00 3.55 3.55

Of which repaid 0.00 3.55 3.55Total Undisbursed 1,501.10 8.32 1,509.42

a. Intended disbursements to date minus actual disbursements to date as projected at appraisal.b. Rating of 1-4: see OD 13.05. Annex D2. Preparation of Implementation Suntmary (Form 590). Following the FY94 Annual Review of Portfolio performance (ARPP), a letter based system will be used (HS = highly Satisfactory. S

satisfactory, U = unsatisfactory, HU = highly unsatisfactory): see proposed Improvements in Project and Portfolio Performance Rating Methodology (SecM94-901), Auguist 23. 1994.Note: Disbursement data is updated at the end of the first week of the month.

Page 54


Turkey at a glance 8/28197

Europe & Lower-POVERTY and SOCIAL Central middle.

Turkey Asia Income Development diamond,

Population mid-1996 (millions) 62.0 479 1,125GNP per capita 1996 (USS) 2.890 2,180 1,750 Life expectancyGNP 1996 (billions US$) 179.2 1.043 1,967 T

Average annual growth, 1990-96

Population (%) 1.7 0.3 1.4 GNP GrossLabor force (%) 2.1 0.5 1.8 per pGmary

Most recent estimate (lat6st year available since 1989) capita enrollment

Poverty: headcount index (% of populatfon) .. ..Urban population (% of total population) 69 65 56Life expectancy at birth (years) 67 68 67Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 48 26 41 Access to safe waterChild malnutrition (% of children under 5) ..Access to safe water (% of populaffon) 92 .. 78Iliteracy (% ofpopulation age 15+) 18 .. - TurkeyGross primary enrollment (% ofschool-age populaoion) 97 97 104 -- Lower-middle-income group

Male 101 97 105Female 94 97 101 | ._

KEY ECONOMIC RATIOS and LONG-TERM TRENDS

1975 1985 1995 1996

GDP (billions USS) 46.7 67.2 169.3 186.0 Eccnomic ratiosGross domestic investmenVGDP 17.9 16.5 24.3 23.4Exports of goods and services/GDP 4.2 15.9 21.6 22.8 Openness of economyGross domestic sawngs/GDP 11.4 13.4 19.7 19.0Gross national savingslGDP 14.2 14.2 20.7 20.0

Current account balance/GDP -3.5 -1.5 -1.4 -2.4 /Interest payments/GOP 0.3 2.0 2.6 2.3 Savings InvestmentTotal debtGDP 10.8 38.7 43.5 42.2Total debt service/exports 11.3 35.0 28.1 23.9Present value of debGDP .. .. 40.8Present value of debt/exports .. .. 164.8 Indebtedness

1975-85 1986-96 1995 1996 1997-05(average annual growfh) TurkeyGDP 3.1 3.9 7.2 7.2 3.8GNP per capita 0.4 2.1 6.5 6.2 2.3 Lower-middle-income groupExports of goods and services 17.5 8.4 6.7 12.5 4.2

STRUCTURE of the ECONOMY

(% of GOP) 1975 1985 1995 1996 Growth rates of output and investment (%)Agriculture 35.8 20.4 14.8 14.6 40 -Industry 19.9 27.1 27.1 27.5 20

Manufacturing 12.5 17.7 18.6 19.1 10Services 44.3 52.5 58.1 57.9 2 9

Private consumption 79.1 79.8 70.6 72.3 20 iGeneral govemnment consumption 9.5 6.8 9.7 8.7 1 _

Imports of goods and services 10.7 19.0 26.2 27.2 0GDI -0-GDP

1975-85 1986-96 1995 1996(average annual growth) Growth rates of exports and Imports 1%)Agricuiture 0.9 1.3 1.0 5.9 40

Industry 3.2 4.7 7.3 7.5Manufacturing 3.7 5.3 11.8 7.5 20t

Services 4.2 3.9 6.1 7.4

Private consumption 2.3 4.1 7.7 10.8 fi 9/

General govemment consumption 3.7 3.9 4.7 14.3 -20Gross domestic investment 0.2 4.4 29.1 3.5 _1_

Imports of goods and services 2.6 9.5 30.0 21.7Gross natonal product 2.7 4.0 8.1 79 r ---Imper.a

Note: 1996 data are preliminary estimates. Figures in italies are for years other than those specified.'The diamonds show four key indicators in the country (in bold) compared with its income-group average. If data are missing, the diamond will

be incomplete.

Page 55


Turkey

PRICES and GOVERNMENT FINANCE1975 1985 1995 1996

Domestic prices Inflation I%)(% change) ! 0

Consumer prices 19.2 45.1 89.0 80.4Implicit GDP deflator 20.5 52.1 86.9 78.5

Government finance 50(% of GDP)Current revenue 17.7 16.6 ' 4

Current budget balance -3.1 -8.9 91 92 93 4 5 96

Overall surplus/deficit .. . -4.1 -8.8 - GDP det. 0 OPI

TRADE1975 1985 1995 1996

(millions US$) Export and import levels (mill. US$)Total exports (fob) 21,636 23,082 50 0r

Other agricultural products 2,097 2,476Livestock and fishery products 209 230 '40000

Manufactures .. .. 18,924 19,996 305000

Total imports (cif) .. .. 35,709 42,464

Food 445 511 2OOOFuel and energy 3,075 3664 10000

Capital goods 11,437 12,032 IExport price index (1987=100) 121 117 3 9 92 9 94 9 95Import price index (1987=100) 116 109Terms of trade (1987=100) .. .. 104 107 D]Exports r Imports

BALANCE of PAYMENTS1975 1985 1995 1996

(millions US$) Current account balance to GDP ratio (%)Exportsofgoodsandservices 2,018 11,119 36,581 42411 4-

Imports of goods and services 4,979 12,661 40,601 48,628Resource balance -2,961 -1,542 -4,020 -6,217

2-i

Net income -123 -1,455 -2,815 -2,623Net current transfers 1,437 1,984 4,496 4,447 .,

Current account balance, 90 91 32 i 931 94 95 96

before official capital transfers -1,647 -1,013 -2,339 -4,393 I _E

Financing items (net) 970 1,137 6,997 8,938 T i

Changes in net reserves 677 -124 -4,658 -4,545

Memo:Reserves including gold (mill US$) 1,444 2,322 13,774 17,874Conversion rate (local/US$) 14.4 522.0 45,678 80,695

EXTERNAL DEBT and RESOURCE FLOWS1975 1985 1995 1996

(millions US$)Total debt outstanding and disbursed 5,059 25,998 73,592 78,485 A B

IBRD 288 3,432 4,939 4,260 4260 124 CIDA 144 178 130 124 669

Composit,on of total debt, 1996 (mirj. USS)Total debt service 377 4,600 11,476 10,823 20092 r 3773

IBRD 31 400 1,278 1,154 , EIDA 2 5 7 7 !, 8113

Composition of net resource flows _ .. 8113Official grants 18 115 439 400Official creditors 165 424 -1,190 -395Private creditors -11 -14 485 2,468Foreign direct investment 114 99 772 704 F

Portfolio equity 0 0 1,108 570 41454

World Bank programCommitments 158 838 162 255 A -IBRD E - BilateralDisbursements 108 636 422 489 B-IDA D- Other multilateral F - PrivatePrincipal repayments 12 159 888 821 C - IMF G- Short-termNet flows 97 477 -466 -332Interest payments 21 246 397 340Net transfers 76 231 -863 -672

Development Economics 8/28/97

BULGARIA AO, 45

Sbtop ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~GEORGIA

GREECE Te, Plo AreBa rc Atn

duB l$ksnL4~~~~~~~~~~~ '~~~~"' F' ®O~~~~~~rdu . @raiion ft ,0

iefresun, ~~~~~~Karo)

Y~~~~~~~Ionu 0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ARMENIA~" 0Ca~Isiri / Amoasya0 0 Omdhn

7 ,Bay6iurt

40'' 0Cusnaldemlo o' Burso0BI'k ,j®t~~~~~~~~~~~~~OCUm Tokot ' >' gjrzurutttn Ages~~zuru eAg

BAUJAN

~~~orjic~~~~~~~~~~~~~n 5 0 0 *~~~~~~~~~~~~Tncl ISLAMIC) \~~~MOmOJ OUsak @A(yOO Nevseitir Koysori ®Bingbl REP OF~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~RP O

1. - KaramkitV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >'Nsei Kysr E-- ',S.ijjvan

10 ~~~~~ -MugIa 0Mcsros Macdin '-~~~~~~~Ak.r-y . ty

K -. ,' -'(Mers~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~igdeAd Di'- r -k* r,-. SiRArt

/ cc-~~~~Koy B.- I

/ K-i ~~~~~ArstcIpsrk Klr®mn,A- I ARAB REP.kar

K-I- Province names are ThKaomamoniproiynoe u"p;"I s~s'-~ I I--- ,! Tb;0 nap man produced by The Mop Design Unit of The World Ranp

CYPRUS , - on ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Thi, mop pdo-n ibpy,o the Mpr ofiq The Wo4rld Bank Arup 35y

aucpt-n of suh bn..ndarie-- 35u - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~cl' 55' , ,....5~~~~~~~1) 40' 4~5'

TURKEY

EMERGENCY FLOOD ANDEARTHQUAKE RECOVERY PROJECT (TEFER)

Component B

WESTERN TURKEY PILOT AREA BOUNDARY ®PROVINCE CAPITALSF''~PILOT BASINS @ NATIONAL CAPITAL

G) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~--PROVINCE BOUNDARIESINTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES 1

N