Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No.7584

PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT REPORT

BANGvADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT(CREDIT 1042-BD)

DECEMBER 30, 1988

Operations Evaluation Department

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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WEIGHTS AN4D MEASURES

1 square mile 640 acres (259 hectares)1 acre (ac) 0.405 hectares (ha)1 cubic foot (cu ft) 0.028 cubic meter (m3)1 cubic meter (m3 ) 35.315 cubic feet (cu ft)1 maund (md) 82.9 lbs (37.34 kg)1 metric ton 26.8 maunds

LIST OF PRINCIPAL ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS USED

AFC Assistant Conservator of ForestsCCPC Conservator Coastal Plantation CircleCF Conservator of ForestsCPC Coastal Plantation CircleDFO Divisional Forest OfficerFAO/CP Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations/World Bank Cooperative ProgrammeFD Forestry DepartmentFI Forestry InstituteFRI Forestry Research InstituteFRP Fibreglass Reinforced PlasticFRTC Forest Rangers Training CollegeICB International Competitive BiddingIDA International Development AssociationLCB Local Competitive BiddingOED Operations Evaluation DepartmentPCR Project Completion ReportPPAM Project Performance Audit MemorandumPTU Plantation Trial UnitSOE Statement of ExpenditureSPARRSO Space Research and Remote Sensing OrganizationUNDP United Nations Development Programme

FOR OMCAL USE ONLYTHE WORLD BANK

Washington. D.C. 20433U.S.A.

ONce df OvectjdwChOpw.ww Evahitwo

December 30, 1988

MEMORANDUM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS AND THE PRESIDENT

SUBJECT: Project Performance Audit Report on BangladeshMangrove Afforestation Proiect (Credit 1042-BD'

Attached, for information, is a copy of a report entitled"Project Performance Audit Report on Bangladesh Mangrove AfforestationProject (Credit 1042-BD)" prepared by the Operations EvaluationDepartment.

At.tachment

This document has a rest cted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

FOR OmCIL USE ONLY

PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT REPORT

BANGLADESHMANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT

(CREDIT 1042-BD)

Table of ContentsPase No.

PREFACE ...... .... ..... ..................... ........ iBkSIC DATA SHEET .............. *...............*so*** ............. iiEVALUATION SUMMARY . ...................... .. ............ ....... iv

PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT NEMORANDUM

I. Prolect Background .............. . ...... 1

II. ProJect Implementation and Outcome ............... 2

III. Findings and Issues .................... .......... - 5

A. Monitoring by Remote Sensing .5

B. Procurement of Boats ... . .................... 6C. Plantation Trials Unit ............ 8D. The Future for Mangrove Plantations 9

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

Is Introduction . ......... ....... * *** *.........*** 1'II. Project Identification and Preparation .... . 1III. Implementation......... *........ 14IV. Institutional Performance and Development ........ 24V. Project Impact ........ .. ....... .. 26VI. Economic Re-evaluation ........................... 30VII. IDA Performance ..... ................ *so*** ............ 31VIII. Isus-s u............e.......... 32IX. Changes in the Follow-up Project . .... 33X. Conclusions and Lessons Learned .. ......... 34

PCR ANXES

Ala= 1

Table 1 - Project CostsTable 2 - Comparison between Appraisal Cost Estimates and Actual

ExpendituresTable 3 - Disbursement of Credit

I This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

ANNEX 2

Table 1 - Development of Mangrove PlantationsTable 2 - Comparison of Forest Department and SPARRLSO Plantation AreasTable 3 - Size of Annual Plantations by DivisionTable 4 - Size-Frequency Distribution of Annual Plantation BlocksTable 5 - Status of Plantation Areas in 1985Table 6 - Preliminary Yield Data for KeoraTable 7 - Preliminary Yield Data for BaenTable 8 - Preliminary Thinning and Yield Table for KeoraTable 9 - Preliminary Thinning and Yield Table for BaenTable 10 - Comparison of Plantation Yields With and Without ThinningTable 11 - Estimated Yield at Appraisal of 1980-8111984-85 Plantations

under 17-Year RotationTable 12 - Estimated Yield at Project Completion of 1980-8111984-85 Keorn

Plarntations under 17-Year RotationTable 13 - Estimated Yield at Project Completion of 1980-8111984-85 Baen

Plantations under 17-Year RotationTable 14 - Estimated Output of Marketable Fuelvood, Poles and Sawlogs from

Project Plantations by Type of SpeciesTable 15 - Summary of Total Estimated Output of Marketable Fuelvood, Poles

and Sawlogs from Project PlantationsTable 16 - Plantation Area Lost by Natural CalamitiesTable 17 - List of Major Equipment - Appraisal Estimates and Actual

Procurement

ANNEM 3

Table 1 - Economic Price of FuelwoodTable 2 - Economic Price of SawlogsTable 3 - Economic Analysis

COMENTS FROM THE BORROWER

Attachment Is Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization

MAP - Mangrove Plantation Areas (IRD # 14864R)

PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT REPORT

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT(CREDIT 1042-BD)

PREFACE

This is a performance audit of the Mangrove Afforestation Projectin Bangladesh for which a credit in the amount of US$11.0 million wasapproved on June 10, 1980. The project was closed on June 30, 1986 after asix month extension. An undisbursed credit balance or US$4.0 million (or36% of the original credit amount) was cancelled.

The audit report consists of a memorandum prepared by theOperations Evaluation Department (OED) and a Project Completion Report(PCR) dated May 29, 1987, originally prepared by the FAO/World BankCooperative Program and revised by Asia Region Staff. The audit memorandumis based on a review of the Appraisal Report (No. 2840-BD dated May 13,1980); the President's Report (No 2822-BD dated May 21, 1980); the CreditAgreement dated June 27, 1980; and the PCR. Correspondence with theBortower and internal Bank memoranda on project issues as contained inrelevant Bank files have also been consulted, and Bank staff associatedwith the project have been interviewed.

An OED mission visited Bangladesh in June 1987. Discussions wereheld with project and other Government officials, including field staff whowere interviewed during visits to project sites. The information obtainedduring the mission was used to test the validity of the conclusions of thePCR.

The audit concurs with the principal points made in the PCR.Points discussed in the audit memorandum have been selected because oftheir importance for this and other Bank-supported projects.

The draft audit report was sent to the Borrower for comments onOctober 21, 1988. Comments received from the Space Research srd RemoteSensing Organization (SPARRSO) are reproduced as Attachment I.

The valuable assistance provided during the audit mission in-country review by the Government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh andthe executing agencies is gratefully acknowledged.

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PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT REPORT

BANGLADESHl

MANCROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT(CREDIT 1042-80)

BASIC DATA SHEET

KEY PROJECT DATA

Actual or Actual as XAppraisal Estimated of Appraisal

Item Estimate Actual Estimate

Project Cost (USS million) 17.20 10.98 84Credit Amount (USl million) 11.00 7.0 64

Date Physical Componente Completed 08/85 06/86Economic Rate of Return () 18 18 -

* Institutional Performnce Adequate Fair -

Technical Performance Adequate Adequate -Date of Board Approval - 06/10/80 -Date of Credit Signature - 96/27/80 -Date Effectiveness 09/25/80 09/26/809 -Closing Date 12/81/86 06/30186 -

STAFF INPUT (Staff Weeks)

FY79 FY980 Y81 FY82 FY88 FY4 ,FY85 FY86 FY87 Total

Preappraisal 61.4 45.4 196.8Appraisal 42.1 42.1Negotiatton 7.1 7.1Supervision 85.8 17.2 8.6 12.0 18.2 12.8 289.1 125.4Othor .4 .4

TOTAL 61.A 95.0 85.8 17.2 6.8 12.9 18.2 12.8 28.1 281.8

CUMULATIVE DISBURSEMENTS

Fiscal Years: FY81 FY82 FY83 FY64 FY8S FY86 FY87

Appraisal Estimate(USl million) 0.7 8.8 5.3 7.8 10.2 11.0 11.0

Actual (US1 million) - 2.0 2.4 4.2 5.4 6.4 7.0Actual as X of Estimate - 61 46 64 49 58 64

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MISSION DATA

Spcial ii.-Date No. of tions Performance Types of

Mission (to@.yr.) Persons Reprosonted Rating Trend ProblemLA /b /c I

Superviuion I 10/80 2 E,F 1 2 -

Supervilaon II 10-11/81 1 E 1 2 _Supervision III 06/82 1 A 1 2 4Supervislon IV 12/88 2 A,F 1 2 USupervllon V 12/88 2 C,F 1 2 USupervision VI 07/84 1 A 1 2 H

Supervision VII 06/86 1 F 1 2 H

Supervision VIII 08/86 1 F 2 2 H

OTHER PROJECT DATA

Borrower: The Forest Department, Ministry of Agriculturoand Forest, 4overnment of Bangladesh

Fiscal Year: July 1 to June 0

Name of Curr ney: Take (Tk)

Currency Eixchanso Rat.

Appraloal Year 1979/8U USn1.eo a 16.06

Intervening Years Average 1980/81 USS1.06 = 16.841981/82 USF1.00 a 29.041982/88 US81.06 a 23.761983/84 USS1.60 a 24.961984/86 US21.U a 26.06

Completton Year Average September 1986 uSn1.eo 8 3.66

Follow-on Prolect

Na Second Forestry ProjectCredit Number 1834Credit Amount (US$ million) 28.6Date of Board Approval November 12, 1986

/a A a Agriculturist; E = Economist; F = Forestry Specialist; 0 * Financial Analyst.lb 1 a Problem-free or minor problems; 2 a Moderate problems; a Major problems./c 1 a Improving; 2 = Stationary; 8 = Deteriorating./d F a Finsncial; U = Managerial; T a Technical; 0 - Other.lo The new Form C90 rating was: Available funds a 8; Project MOT a 2; Dev. Impact = 1;

Overall Stt. a 2.

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PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT REPORT

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT(CREDIT 1042-BD)

EVALUATION SUMMARY

Introduction

The Mangro-e. Afforestation Project was the first forestry projectto be financed )- IDA in Bangladesh. It was designed to assist theGovernment to ac._elerate and improve its mangrove plantation program whichbegan in 1966. The project was justified on the basis of expe _ed woodproduction, but tree planting in the project area was also recognized asserving a protective purpose against cyclone damage.

Oblectives

The objectives of the project were (a) to accelerate the accretionof newly formed lands along the Bay of Bengal and to stabilize thesethrough the establishment of 100,000 acres of mangrove plantation and (b)to increase the production of fuelwood and industrial wood throughefficient management of the new plantations and of approximately 80,000acres of previously established plantation.

Implementation Experience

The plantation establishment component of the project got off to agood start and progress reports indicated that appraisal targets were beingmet throughout the five years of implementation, although independentmonitoring in the closing year revealed that actual target attainments hadbeen considerably less. The two other operational components (plantatio.kmanagement and plantation trials) encountered numerous problems due tobudget, trained manpower and management limitations, and achievements fellfar short of appraisal expectations.

Results

At completion the Forest Department (FD) reported that 99,095acres of mangrove plantation had been planted under the project, butindependent monitoring surveys showed that only 75,382 acres wassuccessfully established, equivalent to a 75% afforestation targetattainment. The overall condition of the successfully establishedplantations is generally good.

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The plantation trials component failed because the unit set up toconduct the trials lacked experienced research staff and wc.s therebyrendered ineffective. Because the Plantation Trials Unit (PTU) was unableto develop standard thinning prescriptions and because of ineffectivemanagement the maintenance of established plantations was limited, sporadicand lagged behind requirements.

Sustainability

Sustainability will be determined largely by the efficiency of FDmanagement in maintaining the established plantations in the future.Although management was sub-optimal during the implementation years it isreported to have improved recently with support from a follow-up IDA-assisted project credit. Recruitment and training of adequate numbers ofplantations operations staff will be all-important to the success of thismanagement effort. An acceptable balance between new plantationdevelopment and existing plantation management still needs to be determined(PPAM, para. 20).

Findints and Lessons

The audit notes that the reestimated 181 economic rate of returnpresented in the PCR, which is the same as that estimated at appraisal, isbased on an expectation of benefits still to be accrued. This may prove tobe optimistic if the quality of plantation management is not improved abovethe level which prevailed during the project implementation years, or iflarge areas of plantation are seriously damaged or destroyed by cyclonesbefore completion of the full growth cycle (PPAM, para. 19).

The project provides an excellent demonstration of the value ofremote sensing to monitoring of plantation achievements, when conducted bya competent independent agency (PPAM, paras. 24-26).

Procurement procedures which have been carefully determined atappraisal and agreed to at tegotiation should not be changed duringimplementation without critical evaluation of the reasons for change andthe circumstances (PPAM, paras. 29-.4).

The temptation to set up separate units charged with ambitiousresearch responsibilities in agencies which perform regulatory ordevelopment roles but lack research experience should be resisted,especially when other organizations having a research mandate are alreadyin existence (PPAM, para. 35).

PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT MEMORANDUM

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT(CREDIT 1042-BD)

I. PROJECT BACKGROUND

Context

1. Cyclones and tidal surges periodically cause heavy losses in humanlife and property destruction in the coastal regions of Bangladeshbordering the Bay of Bengal. Concern with this situation led, in 196t, tothe introduction by the Forest Department (FD) of a program of protectivemangrove afforestation on newly accreted mudbanks fringing the coast. By1980, at which time IDA agreed to assist the Government to implement anexpanded afforestation program, about 80,000 acres of mangrove plantationhad been successfully established in these areas.

Oblectives

2. Tae principal objectives of the project were to accelerate theaccretion, and to stabilize, newly formed lands along the Bay of Bengal,and to increase the production of fuelwood and industrial wood, through anexpanded prograra of mangrove afforestation covering 100,000 acres, andmaintenance of another 80,000 acres planted previously.

Design

3. Implementation of all aspects of the project, except formonitoring, were made the responsibility of the FD. These included the100,000 acres new plantations estatlishment, maintenance of the previouslyplanted (approximately) 80,000 ac,l/ and the setting up of a PlantationTrial Unit (PTU). Staff quarters, off icb., laboratories, boats, vehicles,and training facilities and equipment were provided for these purposes.929 additional staff were to be appointed in support of the program (PCR,para. 2.8).

4. The monitoring of progress in plantation establishment and themeasurement of accretion and erosion within the project area was entrustedto the Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO).

.1/ This figure was subsequently revised upwatds to 89,533 ac (para. 17).

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Finance Plan

5. Estimated total cost at appraisal was US$17.2 m, for which IDA Wv-sto provide a US$11.0 m credit.

6. The amount of IDA credit disbursed was only US$7.0 m, resulting ina saving of US$4.0 m. The reduced expenditure in US$ terms was a result ofcontinuous devaluation of the Taka relative to the US$ during the projectimplementation period (PCR, paras. 3.39-3.40).

Pre-implementation Processin2

7. The mangrove afforestation program was originally conceived byGovernment for the manifold reasons of: protecting the settled coastalagricultural areas from the damaging effects of cyclonic winds and tidalwaves through the creation of shelter belts; stabilizing accreting mudbanksand preventing scouring of river banks; and increasing the supply of forestproducts.

8. A 1978 FAOICP reconnaissance mission concluded that many of theexpected benef'ts were either unrealistic or difficult to quantify, aadproposed that an IDA-assisted project should be justified on the basis ofits positive effect on accretion and the conservation of accreted land withthe ultimate intention of converting such stabilized areas into arableland.

9. After further consideration by IDA staff it was decided that, inthe absence of reliable data on rates of sedimentation, accretion andstabilization, the project should be justified on the basis of forestproducts production alone. Accordingly, an FAO/CP preparation mission inmid-1979 prepared a project on the above lines, and this project wasappraised with no substantial changes later the same year (PCR, paras.2.2-2.8).

II. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME

ManaRement

10. Management of afforestation operations was generally efficient,reflecting the considerable expertise developed by senior FD staff inearlier years (PCR, p_ra. 4.2). In contrast, management of the existingplantations was poor. Budget constraints often made the task of managementdifficult, and particularly affected boat maintenance and repair (PCR,para. 4.4).

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Start-up

11. The project was declared effective only one day later thanspecified in the credit agreement, and implementation of the afforestationprogram proceeded according to appraisal schedule, with the result that thefirst year target of 15,000 acres was attained. Certain support activitiestook longer to get underway, due in large part to project staffinexperience with IDA procedures (PCR, para. 3.1).

Seauence

12. Apart from some delays and shortfalls in attainment of theappraisal target for plantation establishment, implementation proceededaccording to appraisal expectations. One important departure from theoriginal plan was the replanting of 11,767 ac in the 1985/86 season,following cyclone damage in 1985. The credit closing ddte was extended bysix months because of this disaster.

Procurement

13. Procurement was slow during the first year, but picked up later asproject staff became familiar with IDA procedures (PCR, para. 3.36).

14. The procurement of boats, especially 21 fibre reinforced plastic(FRP) motorboats (PCR, para. 3.37) and a locally constructed launch, wasparticularly problematic (paras. 29-34).

Reporting

15. Monthly and annual progress reports were produced re,..ularly and ontime, in accordance with normal Government procedures. The six-monthlyreports required by IDA were received with less regularity and not aspunctually, and were insufficiently analytical in explaining reasons forshortfalls or non-accomplishment of certain activities. Annual audits wereinvariably late (PCR, paras. 4.5-4.6).

Outcomes

16. Accord_.ng to figures provided annually by the FD, actualafforestation attainments more or less matched SAR expectations, with99,095 ac of new mangrove plantation recorded as achieved by the end of thefifth year. However, this figure was questioned by an IDA supervisionmission in June 1985 and was further disputed by SPARRSO on the basis ofaerial photographic analysis, which showed only 89,414 ac planted, of which12,822 ac was found to have failed and a further 1,211 ac eroded, leadingto a final figure of only 75,382 ac classed as successfully established atthe close of the project (PCR, paras. 3.4-3.5). IDA accepted the SPARRSOplanted acreage figure (equivalent to 75% of SAR expectation) for thepurpose of disbursement (PCR, para. 3.7). This experience is instructive

in demonstrating the application of aerial photographic interpretationtechniques to forest plantation monitoring (paras. 25-28).

17. The management of the 89,533 ac of plantation established prior tothe inception of the project was below SAR expectations, in part because ofa failure of the PTU to develop management plans incorporating a thinningstrategy. In consequence, management remained small-scale and sporadicthroughout the project implementation period (PCR, paras. 3.10-3.12).

18. The PTU failed to become an effective operational unit during thelife of the project (PCR, para. 3.14). As the failure of this componentbecame apparent, IDA supervision staff formulated simple guidelines anddefined very basic operational programs for FD to follow in order to startmanagement practices.

Economic Performance

19. In the absence of reliable data on com-ercial wood production frommangrove plantations, the PCR used yield estimates provided under a UNDPForest Inventory Project and plantation area figures provided through theSPARRSO monitoring exercise to reestimate the economic rate of return (ERR)for the new plantation component. At 18% the PCR reestimated ERR is thesame as originally estimated at appraisal. It should be noted, however,that the relatively high ERR reported in the PCR is still an estimate,based on an expectation of benefits not yet accrued, and may prove to beoptimistic if the quality of plantation management is not considerablyimproved above the levels prevailing during the project implementationyears, or if large areas of plantation are seriously damaged or destroyedby cyclones before completion of their full growth cycle.

Sustainability

20. Sustainability will be determined largely by the efficiency withwhich FD manages the plantations in the future and by the extent to whichfuture yields of mangrove wood conform to the estimates used in reestimat-ing the ERR (para. 19). The absence of soundly based plantation managementworking plans resulted in sub-optimal management during the implementationyears of the project, but the situation is understood to be improvingthrough activities supported under the follow-on project. Recruitment andtraining of adequate numbers of plantations operations staff will be all-important to the success of this management effort. An acceptable balancebetween new plantation development and existing plantation management stillneeds to be determined.

Environmental Effects

21. The environmental effect of the project appears favorable in mostregards. The establishment of a mangrove forest cover on accreting mud-banks has contributed to their stabilization, and is generally assumed to

provide a protective barrier against cyclonic storm surges to theimmediately adjacent cultivated and inhabited coastal areas, although thisis difficult, if not impossible, to quantify on the basis of presentknowledge.

Human Resource Development

22. The project provided improved and expanded capacity at two foresttraining institutions to help meet the increased demand for torest rangersand forest guards (PCR, paras. 3.22-3.24).

III. FINDINGS AND ISSUES

Overview

23. With 75,382 ac of new mangrove plantation estimated to have beensatisfactorily established compared with a 100,000 ac appraisal target, theproject can be viewed as partly successful in regard to its principalcomponent.

24. The other two operational components--plantation trials and pre-project plantation management--were clearly unsuccessful as attainmentsfell far short of appraisal objectives. The PTU failed to develop as aneffective research unit during the life of the project due to lack ofexperienced local research expertise and difficulty in appointing orretaining competent research advisers (PCR, paras. 3.13-3.15). Theplantation management component was poorly implemented, in part because athinning strategy did not emerge from the operations of the PTU, asintended at appraisal (PCR, paras. 3.10-3.11).

Issues Arising

A. Monitoring by Remote Sensing

25. The project provided for monitoring of land accretion and erosion,and FD afforestation activities, to be undertaken independently by SPARRSOusing satellite (LANDSAT) imagery and aerial photography respectively.Despite the inevitable timelag in acquiring imagery tapes and aerialphotographs, carrying out interpretation and ground truthing, andcompleting map compilation, both types of remote sensing media proved theirusefulness for different aspects of the monitoring process in the closingyears of the project and subsequently (PCR, paras. 3.26-3.31). Therelative advantages and disadvantages of the respective media are wellexemplified by this project experience.

26. The scale of the LANDSAT imaaery (1:250,000) proved to be toosmall for detailed site selection, but judging from comparative analysis of

1973, 1980 and 1987 imagery undertaken by SPARRSO in the post-projectperiod, which was viewed during field audit (June 1988), the audit stronglyendorses the PCR statement (para. 3.30) to the effect that satelliteimagery interpretation could be useful in broad indicative terms foridentifying future afforestation sites, particularly with the advent ofimproved imagery systems capable of higher resolution than LANDSAT which isnow available on a commercial basis.

27. The application of conventional black and white, and infrared,aerial photography to the afforestation program monitoring process has hada much more immediate impact. Measurements based on 1:10,000 scaleplantation area maps compiled from 1:50,000 scale color ii.fraredphotographs, supplemented by ground truthing, together with conv'rntionalground survey in the case of the more recently established plantationswhich were not distinguishable on the aerial photography, has proven beyondreasonable doubt that the area of afforestation successfully established bythe close of the project was around 75,000 ac rather than the approximately99,000 ac claimed by FD in the final year (PCR, paras. 3.4-3.9).

28. The plantation maps, which will be revised periodically under asecond forestry project now being implemented, not only demonstrated theireffectiveness for monitoring but are also proving invaluable for planningand operational purposes, including the preparation of plantationmanagement working plans. But particularly significant in the view of theaudit is the contribution made by these maps in imparting a stronger senseof accountability for plantation establishment and maintenance on the partof FD staff responsible for field operations.

B. Procurement of Boats

29. The appraisal report specified boat requirements to be financedunder the project as four launches, one seed carrier cum general cargovessel, 25 outboard motorboats and 70 non-mechanized, wooden hulled,country boats in three standard sizes. Additionally, the loan agreementstipulated that the 3 unches and the seed carrier would be procured throughICB and the remainder through LCB, or off-the-shelf from the only localsupplier in the case of the motorboat hulls. However, changes in the type,number or method of procurement of these boats were introduced commencingwithin a few weeks of effectiveness, such that the final acquisition listincluded two launches, one seed carrier, 21 inboard motorboats, 43 countryboats, 17 mechanically powered country boats, three fiberglass boats andthree dinghies. While the changes in numbers of boats were appropriate tochanging circumstances during implementation, the changes in type ardmethod of procurement were unfortunate in the case of the motorboats, asalso was the change in type, from custom design to off-the-shelf, in thecase of one of the launches.

30. The motorboat hulls identified at appraisal were standard designfiberglass craft of a type in common use with other Government agencies.

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However, in October 1980 around the time of the first supervision IDA wasadvised by FD of a proposed change to an inboard diesel powered fiberglassreinforced plastic (FRP) design. It was argued that the new design, whichcould not be built locally, would provide greater stability, reliabilityand economy in operation. IDA appears not to have objected to this changein type and agreed to procurement of same through ICB.

31. Twenty-one bids were received for the speedboats and a US$0.309 mcontract was signed late the following year with the lowest (foreign)bidder to supply 21 units for delivery in 1982. However, when tested afterdelivery but prior to acceptance the boats performed far belowspecifications (for reasons of instability; inability to attain specifiedspeed; and engine overheating), which led to a protracted negotiationbetween Government and contractor, and which was only resolved after thecontractor, having failed to improve the performance, agreed to provideengine spares equivalent to five percent of the total contract price ascompensation. Unfortunately, however, this did not solve the instabilityproblem, which was judged by a local consultant naval architect involved inthe acceptance trials to have been due to an incompatibility between thehull and propulsion unit which was described as a basic design flawincapable of resolution. This design flaw rendered the boats completelyunsuitable for service. Attempts by FD to dispose of the craft by tenderhave been unsuccessful.

32. The procurement of the locally constructed launch has also beenproblematic. Described as an "off-the-shelf" design, its construction wascontracted to a local shipyard, following ICB tender, in contrast to theother launch and the seed carrier, which were custom designed and foreignbuilt at a cost which was well above appraisal estimate. The argumentadvanced by Government to justify award of tender to the lowest bidder, aBangladesh shipyard, res-ed largely on reasons of economy (TK 3,943,000 orapproximately US$192,000 at the 1983 rate of exchange in contrast to theforeign built launch procur.ed earlier which cost approximately US$460,000),and the Government went to considerable lengths to persuade IDA that theirpreferred supplier was coinpetent in spite of a statement from theevaluation committee that the '...physical facilities, personnel positionand t'ie past and present records of building inland vessels and coasters."were less than satisfactory. Unfortunately however, the local supplier hasbeen unable to deliver a craft which can meet the Lloyds registrationrequirements of the contract, due to poor standards of construction. Thisled in 1983 to an impasse which still persisted at field audit wherebyGovernment, having made progress payments equivalent to 85% of contractprice, was refusing to accept delivery on grounds of inability of thebuilder to meet the conditions of contract.

33. The above unsatisfactory procurement experiences deservehighlighting for the several lessons they contain. Perhaps the mostimportant is that deviations from procurement procedures agreed duringcredit negotiations should only be made after the most careful review of

the circumstances, and, where warranted, re-investigation by appropriatelyexperienced professionals. The appraisal proposals to locally procure off-the-shelf fiberglass speedboat hulls of a type already in general use byother Government agencies, and of restricting launch procurement tosuppliers with proven records in constructing the types of vessel requiredappear to have been correct, and the changes proposed by the Government andagreed to by IDA were unfortunate.

34. The importance of developing reasonably accurate cost estimates,including contingencies, at appraisal, and the unpredictable consequenceswhich can ensue when costs are seriously underestimated, is also borne outby this project experience. The high contracted cost of the first launchand the seed carrier (US$923,378) was such that foreign procurement of thefull fleet of five vessels, if executed, would have used up not only theentire credit allocation for boats but also more than the entire sum ofUS$800,000 included in the unallocated head under the credit agreement.The decision to reduce the number of launches from four to two and toprocure the second launch locally was governed primarily by a falseperception that locally built boats of equal quality could be procured atless cost. While Government actions were in the main responsible for theunfortunate train of events in regard to these two procurement decisions,IDA must bear some of the responsibility for not conducting a technical re-evaluation or more strongly resisting the pressure to deviate from agreedprocurement arrangements.

C. Plantation Trials Unit

35. The disappointing performance of the PTU (PCR, paras. 3.13-3.15)illustrates the inappropriateness of setting up from scratch a separateresearch unit charged with an extremely heavy program of investigative workwithin a line agency which has largely regulatory or developmentresponsibilities as its main objectives, but no mandate for or littleexperience in research. In the absence of any experienced research staffin FD the responsibility for defining and guiding the program depended on aconsultant. But because the appointee was incapacitated by illnessfollowing his first two-week visit to the project, the research programremained ineffective throughout the life of the project. While the PCRattributes the failure of this component (and of the plantation managementcomponent, which was dependent for its success in large measure on theoutcome from the PTU) largely to FD management deficiencies, the auditconsiders their failure to be primarily due to a misjudgement at appraisalregarding likely research attainments on the part of the PTU. It wasunrealistic under the circumstances to have expected significant results ofresearch from a newly created PTU in the short period of five years, evenif the ten months of technical assistance had materialized, or to haveexpected it to have delivered plantation working plans when no allowancehad been made for inventory of the plantations.

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36. An alternative proposal, made by other Bank staff, to integratethe project supported mangrove research more closely with the work of theForest Research Institute (FRI) was rejected by the appraisal mission, onthe grounds that the Institute was too weak to carry out the programefficiently. Subsequently, shortly before project completion when theSecond Forestry Project was being appraised, the PTO was transferred to theFRI.

D. The Future for Mangrove Plantations

37. Knowledge of mangrove plantations and the site dynamics of theestuarine and coastal areas has grown appreciably during the implementationyears of the project, in part through experience gained from the projectitself, including SPARRSO remote sensing data, and in part from the effortsof staff working on UNDP-assisted projects which proceeded in parallel andwere continuing at time of audit. As a result inventories have beencompleted and a revised thinning strategy has been developed under theaegis of the follow-on project. The new strategy prescribes stand thinningin years four and ten within an optimum 20-year rotation cycle, and thestage is at last set for the drawing up of plantation wo.bing plans toguide the future management of the plantations. The real tozt however--theeffectiveness with which the management plans will be implemented--is stillto come. The situation as presented in the PCR is not encouraging in theview of the %udit, considering that the staffing levels in the CoastalPlantation C. rcle were lower in the closing year of the project than theywere at the start (PCR, para. 3.21) while the area of established mangrovehad risen from around 90,000 acres to at least 165,000 acres in the sameperiod. As noted in paras. 19 and 20 the success of the project ineconomic terms will be heavily influenced by the efficiency of plantationmanageLent in the remaining years of the rotation.

38. A further consideration affecting the future of the plantations,as noted during fielo inspection by the audit, is the rapidity with whichchanges can occur in site conditions due to variable rates of accretion anderosion. Given the unpredictability of such changes, which can havesignificant effect on mangrove growth and yield, even to the extent ofdrastically shortening the life of a rotation, it is essential forefficient management that monitoring be carried out of individualplantation conditions as a routine, and that monitored information onchange be applied to revision of management plans on a regular basis.Considerable flexibility must be shown by management if the economics ofthe project investment is to be maximized.

39. Finally, the audit was given to understand that current Governmentpolicy is to permit FD to retain occupancy of lands allocated forplantation for a period of 20 years, following which the lands would revertto district administrative control with a view to reallocation foragricultural or other use. The possibility of retaining some plantations,or parts of plantations, as forest reserves for periods beyond the initial

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20 years, possibly in accord with a cyclone protection "green belt" plandeserves merits as also does reducing the initial 20-year period of FDoccupancy in cases where accretion is so rapid as to alter the sitecondition to the extent that it is no longer suitable for mangrove, and thelife of the rotation has to be shortened. While the above possibilitieswere acknowledged by Government and Bank staff encountered during audit tobe sensible land use options, they do not appear to be fully taken intoaccount in the avplication of the present policy. Given the strongdynamics of the forces controlling accretion and erosion in the projectarea and the effect of these forces on the economics of mangrove plantationforestry at each site, the audit recommends an early review of currentpolicy directed towards its elaboration and the drawing up of guidelinesfor use by district administrators and others responsible for land useplanning and allocation.

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BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR 1042-BD)

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

I. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Agriculture is the main sector of the economy in Bangladesh. In1984/85, it accounted for about 48% of GDP, 82% of export earnings and 74% oftotal labor force. The forestry sub-sector accounts for only about 3% oftotal GDP but this measure does not in itself reflect the true importanceof the subsector in the economy of the country. The forestry subsector is anessential source of energy needs, as well as other forestry products, i.e.sawn wood, poles and pulp. Forests in Bangladesh also have an important rolein protecting watersheds and irrigation structures, in reclaiming land fromthe sea and in reducing damage from cyclones in the coastal areas.

I.:2 The high population pressure in Bangladesh has led over the pastyears to the increasing utilization of land for agricultural purposes, at theexpense of forests, while at the same time demand for forest products hasbeen growing at a rapid rate. In addition, depletion of forests in thecoastal areas has reduced the natural protection provided by trees againstscouring of coastal lands and flood protection embankments during periodiccyclones. As a remedy for this situation, the Government of Bangladeshdecided to step-up forestry development programs. Following a 1977 reviewof the forestry subsector, Government requested the International DevelopmentAssociation (IDA) for assistance in forestry development in the coastalareas. IDA's positive response led to the finalization of the MangroveAfforestation Project (Cr.1042-BD) which started in September 1980.

1.3 Project implementation was completed in June 1986 and an FAO/WorldBank Cooperative Programme (FAO/CP) mission visited Bangladesh in September1986 to assist in the preparation of a Project Completion Report (PCR). ThisPCR is based on: the project's Reconnaissance, Preparation and AppraisalReports; the Development Credit Agreement; Project Supervision Reports;project files by the World Bank; monthly and annual reports prepared by theForestry Department and discussions with project staff.

II. PROJECT IDENTIFICATION AND PREPARATION

Project Origin

2.1 In 1977, an FAO/UNDP mission reviewed the Bangladesh forestry sectorand prepared a report which indicated a number of possible developmentschemes. Government submitted this report to IDA and expressed interest in

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obtaining assistance in forestry development. Subsequent discussions betweenIDA and Government led to the definition of areas for IDA's involvement,which among other things, included coastal afforestation. At the Govern-ment's request two FAO/CP missions visited Bangladesh in late-1978 andmid-1979 and prepared a coastal afforestation project, which was the basisfor appraising the Mangrove Afforestation Project.

Identification and Preparation

2.2 Following the destruction and Loss of life bv cyclones in the sixtiesand seventies, Government decided to plant trees outside the coastal floodprotection embankments in order to protect them from erosion and breachingduring storms. The progiam was started in 1966 but gathered momentum only in1974 when 4,500 ac were planted. At the time of the FAO/CP reconnaissancemission's visit in November/December 1978, some 60,000 ac of the coastalareas had been planted with various mangrove species. The main objective ofthe planting program was to: protect human habitation and inland agricultureagainst cyclones; provide shelter belts against cyclones; stabilize the soiland prevent scouring of river banks and embankments; and increase the supplyof forestry products.

2.3 The reconnaissance mission, after visiting the coastal areas, con-firmed the feasibility of establishing successful mangrove plantations inthe coastal areas and ascertained the positive effect of mangrove plantationswith regard to land accretion. However, the mission found that, even thoughbelts of mangrove could provide some degree of protection, comparison of thedistribution of the sites suitable for mangrove plantations with agriculturallands in the coastal regions showed that the above mentioned objectives wereunrealistic. It therefore suggested that the main objectives be revised tobe acceleration of accretion, conservation of new accretion and ultimatetransition of new accretion to arable land.

2.4 The reconnaissance mission, along with change in the emphasis of theplantation program objectives, proposed a five-year project to plant 55,000ac to mangroves in the Coastal Afforestation Divisions of Chittagong, Noak-hali, Patuakhali and Barisal. In order to support the proposed plantationprogram, the project was to provide for a cyclone early warning system,remote sensing, research facilities, transport and communication equipment,offices and staff housing, incremental staff, technical assistance and fundsfor operation and maintenance. Total project costs were estimated at US$12million with a foreign exchange component of about 50%.

2.5 The findings of the reconnaissance mission were reviewed by the Bankand several comments were made for the benefit of the preparation mission.In particular, revision of the project's main objectives were once againproposed. The argument put forward was that there was no information onrates of sedimentation, accretion and the level of stabilization of soilsto be expected as a result if mangrove plantation and thus information waslacking to quantify benefits. Because of this, it was then proposed to alterthe main objective of the project to production of forest products and tojustify the project on the benefits that would accrue from their sale.

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2.6 The preparation mission which visited Bangladesh in June/July 1979,after confirming the lack of informatien to justify the project on thebeneficial effects of accretion and stabilization of accreted land by plant-ing mangroves, endorsed the view that the project's main objective should beproduction of forest products and thus it should be justified purely as aforestry project. The preparation mission cound that FD's performance inmangrove plantation was satisfactory and acknowledged the Department'sability to establish successfully larger areas of mangrove plantation thanthose proposed by the reconnaissance mission provided the limitations imposedby lack of equipment, particularly boats, and funds were solved.

2.7 The preparation mission proposed a five-year project to plant100,000 ac and to maintain some 78,000 ac of existing plantation. Theproject was to finance: establishment of plantations (including nurseries);maintenance of existing plantations; transport and communication equipment;offices and staff housing; incremental staff; training and technical assis-tance; and monitoring and evaluation of the project. Total project costswere estimated at Tk 318 million (US$21.2 million) with a foreign exchangecomponent of 15%. Total production from the 100,000 ac over a 15-20 yearcycle was expected to amount to 164 million cu ft of woodtimber. The projectwas estimated to yield an economic rate of return of 10% over a period of 22years. The project was expected to cover the four coastal forest divisions(para 2.4) and to be implemented by the existing Plantation Circle under theoverall responsibility of the Chief Conservator of Forests. The projectproposed to assist the Plantation Circle by establishing a small monitoringand data collection unit. Research was expected to be established under thename of the Forestry Research Institute (FRI), executed under a separateaccount.

Appraisal and Credit Effectiveness

2.8 The project was appraised by IDA in October/November 1979. Asappraised, the project proposed to finance:

(a) Establishment of 100,000 ac of new mangrove plantations;

(b) Management of some 80,000 ac of existing plantations;

(c) Construction of 370 permanent and semi-permanent staff quarters;

(d) Provision of 100 boats (4 launches for supervisory staff, 1 boatequipped as a seed carrier, 25 motorized work boats, and 70non-motorized country boats) required for planting operations andsupervision;

(e) Provision of 6 four-wheel drive vehicles, 2 mini-buses, 7 motor-cycles, 60 bicycles and 11 wireless sets;

(f) Establishment of a Plantation Trial Unit (PTU), including provisionof an office-cum-laboratory at Khulna;

(g) Provision of audio-visual equipment and materials;

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(h) Strengthening of forestry training institutions through provisionof a dormitory building, instructor's quarters, transport and teach-ing aids; and

(i) Provision of funds for utilizing the existing remote sensing program,including technical assistance, equipment rentals, materials and thepurchase and processing of Landsat tapes.

2.9 The appraisal mission lso proposed that the project should be imple-mented using the existing organizational structure of the FD. It proposedthat the project be managed by the Conservator Coastal Plantation 'lircle(CCPC) stationed at Khulna who is directly responsible to the Chief Conser-vator of Forests, Dhaka. The actual execution was entrusted to the fourDivisional Forest Officers (DFO) in the districts of Batisal, Patuakhali,Noakhali and Chittagong. The project's Plantation Trial Unit was also placedunder the responsibility of the CCPC. In line with proposals made at projectpreparation, monitoring of project plantation works was assigned to anotheragency, the Bangladesh Landsat Program later renamed Space Research andRemote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO).

2.10 Project proposals at preparation and appraisal were essentiallysimilar. Some changes introduced at appraisal concerned the reduction ofstaff quarters by about 50% and the increase in number of boats by about 30%.Total project costs over five years were estimated at Tk 275.2 million(US$17.2 million) of which 26% was foreign exchange. The project wasexpected to produce a total of 365 million cu ft of wood/timber within a20-year period and its economic rate of return was estimated to be 18Z.

2.11 The Credit of US$11 million was signed on June 27, 1980 ard wasscheduled to become effective on September 25, 1980. Conditions of effec-tiveness were the establishment of the PTU and the approval of the ProjectProforma by the Government. These conditions were met almost as expectedand the Credit became effec..ve on September 26, 1980.

III. IMPLEMENTATION

A. Project Commencement

3.1 Timely fulfillment of the conditions for Credit effectiveress enabledthe project to start without delay. As the proposed project was a continua-tion of an existing program, the four Forestry Divisions were able to moverapidly to the initiation and implementation of project plantations. Thisenabled the project to meet its first year plantation target without muchdifficulty. However, many of the supporting activities were behind scheduleprimarily due to project staff's inexperience with IDA procedures. By thesecond year, the implementation of other components also improved as projectstaff became familiar with the procedures as the result of experience gainedduring the first year implementation and the participation of several staffin a seminar on IDA procedures.

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B. Revisions

3.2 There was no mid-term review during project implementation and nochange of significance has been made to the original design of the project.However, as a result of the cyclone of May 1985, which caused substantialdamage to the project's civil works, equipment and plantations, particularlyin Barisal and Patuakhali Division, FD requested to include costs of damagerepairs under the project and to extend the Credit closing date by sixmonths. IDA agreed to this request and as a result a component of cyclonedamage rehabilitation was included which was implemented in 1985/86 at atotal cost of Tk 6 million.

C. Imulementation Progress

Establishment of New Plantations

3.3 Procedures. Establishment procedures are those developed by FDbefore the project began. Seed of Keora (Sonneratia apetala) is collected inSeptember, planted in seed beds and transplanted in Msy when seedlings are12-18 inches tall. Two 80 x 40 ft seed beds supply seedlings for 1 ac of2lantation; seedlings from one seed bed are required for every 2 ac of ini-tial plantation for filling in and beating up. Seedlings are transplanted ata 4 x 4 ft spacing. Whereas initially seed was brought from the Sunderbans,an increasing proportion is now obtained within the plantation area. Seed ofBaen (Avicennia officinalis) is sown directly in the plantation areas.

3.4 New Plantations. Project targets called for the establishment of15,000 ac of new plantations in Year 1, 15,000 ac in Year 2, 20,000 ac inYear 3, and 25,000 ac in each of Years 4 and 5, to give a total of100,000 ac. Forest Department aggregate records show targets achieved ineach Division from the initiation of the project, with only a small shortfallin 1984-85. The area planted during the project is given by FD as 99,095 ac.About 80X of plantations are Keora and 20% Baen, with the latter concentratedin higher salinity areas of Chittagong. A further 11,767 ac has also beenreplanted under the cyclone damage rehabilitation program in 1985/86.

Project Plantation by Division

Chittaxona Noakhali Barisal Patuakhali Total…(aces)----------…---(r----------…---------------

24,800 33,920 26,667 13,708 99,095

This brings the total area planted since the first experiments in 1960/61 andthe beginning of a planting program in 1966/67 to 189,357 ac (Annex 2,Table 1). Plantstions of different ages inspected by the PCR mission arehealthy and vigorous.

3.5 IDA's June 1985 supervision mission found sufficient evidence toquestion the accuracy of plantation area reports of FD and requested anindependent verification by the Bangladesh Space Research and Renote Sensing

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Organization (SPARRSO). SPARRSO using color infrared photography flown inFebruary 1984 and by carrying out ground ttuthing determined that the actualarea planted was substantially less than area reported by FD, especially inBarisal and Chittagong Divisions. According to SPARRSO's measurements thetotal area planted by FD was 89,414 ac of which 1,211 ac had been eroded and12,822 ac failed and hence the area of successfully established plantationswas only 75,381 ac. Since high mortality is expected 1/ in the first andsecond year of new plantations the size of failed plantations should not betreated as a final figure. This area is now being planted under the SecondForestry Project.

3.6 There are several possible reasons for this substantal discrepancy,including:

(a) inadequate surveying and area measurement by FD range staff;

(b) loss of plantations subsequent to planting, through land erosion,sedimentation, washing out of seedlings, or encroachment on planta-tion areas by other forms of land use -- the areas reported by FD areinitial planting areas and do not reflect subsequent losses;

(c) over-reporting by range officers of areas not actually planted --this may be the case for one plantation of 700 ac in Noakhali Divi-sion and nine plantations totalling 3,984 ac in Barisal Division.

3.7 FD disputed the SPARRSO findings and GOB formed a joint committee bytwo agencies to reconcile their differences. However at the closing of theCredit on December 31, 1986, the committee had not produced a final reportand IDA disbursement was limited to 89,414 ac as reported by SPARRSO.

3.8 FD range data show considerable regional variability in plantationsize during the project period (Annex 2, Table 3). In particular, individualannual plantation blocks in Patuakhali Division average only 172.2 ac, com-pared with a mean of over 400 ac in the other divisions. Patuakhali alsohas the highest proportion of plantation blocks of less than 100 ac (67%,compared with 28% for Barisal - Annex 2, Table 4). Eleven annual plantationblocks (3% of the total) are reported to be over 1,000 ac, in aggregateaccounting for 18,349 ac or 19% of the total. It is in these large blocks inBarisal and Chittagong Division that most of the disparity between FD andSPARRSO area estimates lies. There has been no analysis of the implicationsor significance of these plantation :ize distributions.

3.9 SPARRSO has also provided aggrt 4ate divisional data on the status ofplantations (Annex 2, Table 5), but thi has limitations both on definitionof young plantations and canopy type (pa'a 3.29).

1/ Replanting rate for mangrove plantations is 100 percent as against 20-30percent allowance for conventional plantations.

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Management of Existing Plantations

3.10 In addition to the new plantations established during the project,a wiaintenance program was envisaged for both new and existing plantations,including creeper cutting, insect control and thinning. Maintenance of atleast 78,000 ac of existing plantations was initially envisaged. Annex 2,Table 1 shows a total of 89,533 ac in existence at the inception of theproject, rising to 189,357 ac at the end of 1984-85. The area of plantationsmaintained during the project was as follows:

Year Area (ac)

1980-81 14,7181981-82 44,7371982-83 43,6851983-84 48,7561984-85 59,125

Total 211,021

3.11 Initial maintenance includes replanting in Year 1 and beating up(subsequent filling of vacancies) in Years 2 and 3. Climbers were to beremoved in Year 5. The project Appraisal Report recommended thinning at 9years. The project failed, however, to develop a thinning me,hodology in theabsence of measurements of growth and yield by PTU; a draft thinning programwas appended to the Bank Supervision Report in 1983. Thinning did not beginuntil November 1983 when 3,264 ac were thinned at 50 sites. In the absenceof a thinning strategy, management of plantations has continued to besmall-scale and sporadic and has lagged behind requirements. Die-back ofsome stands because of high rates of sedimentation has emphasized the needfor active management.

3.12 Growth and yield data on plantations in all four Divisions werecollected by the forest inventory program of the UNDP/FAO Project(BDG/79/017), completed in June 1986, and preliminary results are available.It is expected that a management plan for the plantations based on the fullanalysis of these data will be completed by July 1987.

Plantation Trials

3.13 It was recognized in initial planning that research and monitoringconstituted a vital component of the project but that an appropriate programmust be pragmatically directed towards project objectives. The PTU wasestablished as a Divisional Forest Office in 1981 under a Deputy Conservatorof Forests, with headquarters in Barisal and nine field stations in the fourdivisions. The field stations were each staffed by a Forest Ranger.

3.14 In spite of all the facilities provided by the project (staff hous-ing, office space and equipment), the PTU failed to become an operationaland effective unit during the life of the project. This is mainly due to

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lack of clear directives as the staff were not experienced in research work.A consultant visited Bangladesh in July 1981 and recommended a program witheight components (ecology, soils, silhiculture, genetics, mensuration,management, protection, minor products), and laid out six experimentalmonitoring plots, but because of illness he was unable to make a second visitand the initiative lapsed. The appointment of a replacement consultant waslong delayed (para 3.18). The Supervision Mission of July 1984 proposed aresearch program consisting of nine trials (including effects of thinningand pruning, study of growth rates, planting s asonality, spacing andphenology) but PTU was unable to maintain these.

3.15 The failure of the PTU means that data vical to management was nocavailable throughout project implementation or during the planning forForestry Project IT. This data includes:

- studies of growth and yield of different species under differentconditions;

- ecological controls on growth;- rates of accretion;- interaction between accretion and plantation development;- soil development under plantations;- planting techniques;- plantation management under different pruning, thinning and

rotation strategies.

Fortunately some information on areas of erosion and accretion in the planta-tion areas has been provided by SPARRSO and data on growth and yields by UNDPForest Inventory Project, but much of this information became available toolate to benefit the Mangrove Afforestation Project.

Civil Works

3.16 The project called for the construction of 370 permanent andsemi-permanent staff quarters, of which 78 were to be constructed in Year 1,102 in Year 2, 143 in Year 3 and 44 in Year 4. This program was scaled downduring project implementation in order to reduce costs. By the end of theproject, 315 quarters had been constructed together with PTU centre atBarisal. The dormitory at the Forest Rangers Training College (FRTC) inChittagong was completed in 1981-82 and the Forestry Institute (FI) of Sylhetquarters in 1982-83. Staff housing and offices appear generally well con-structed and of appropriate design and quality.

3.17 Implementation of the civil works program was slow. Only fourquarters were constructed in the first year and 84 in the second year. Con-siderable progress was made in the following three years of the project whenconstruction reached 97, 90 and 40 respectively. The delay in the initialconstruction was mainly due to the modifications made to the design preparedby FD, for which the recruitment of a consultant was required, and construc-tion had to wait until the final designs were made. These delays have notaffected the progress of plantation.

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Consultancy Services and Contractors

3.18 The project provided for 10 man-months of technical assistance to thePTU by a research specialist phased over five years and for assistance onaerial photography and remote sensing. Because of delays in recruitment, theresearch specialist made his first visit only in July 1981. During thisvisit he prepared the research program for 1981/82 together with the Unitstaff. Due to illness, however, the research specialist could not makesuccessive visits. Awaiting his recovery, and later considering whether toterminate his contract or to amend it by engaging a junior consultant underhis supervision, took a long time, depriving the PTU of the necessaryguidance in its work program. In 1983, a decision was made to recruitanother consultant but actual recruitment was again delayed and the secondconsultant visited Bangladesh only in February 1986. By that time, the PTUwas transferred to FRI and the project was approaching termination. Theconsultant could therefore only prepare a program for the mangrove plantationresearch component to be included in the follow-up project. The technicalassistance component to the PTU was ther:-fore barely utilized and this is oneof the reasons for the ineffectiveness of the PTU in applied research andtrials on mangroves.

3.19 The project's technical assistance in aerial photography survey andthe computer analysis of Landsat remote sensing imagery was carried out bycontract with international firms. Due to adverse weather conditions, theaerial photography was completed only in December 1981, after a delay of oneyear. The quality of the aerial photography was however, excellent and hasbenefitted SPARRSO immensely for its monitoring activities. The assistancein analyzing Landsat remote sensing was satisfactorily completed in mid-1982and enabled SPARRSO to use Landsat imagery for monitoring physical changesalong the Bay of Bengal. The project also availed itself of several localcontractors for the construction of staff housing and offices and for boats.Overall, the performance of these contractors was satisfactory although dueto a dispute between FD and the contractor the construction of the secondlaunch stopped.

Staffing

3.20 The project envisaged increasing the number of total staff from 873to 1,802. Of these, 1,645 were to be placed as field staff, the remainderwere to be posted at the divisional headquarters. Difficulties wereexperienced in recruiting staff according to the schedule established atappraisal. Initially Government had not sanctioned all the required postsand this delayed recruitment. In Year 1, only 50% of the planned staffinghad been achieved. Later, however, even when the posts were sanctioned, theFD could not fill the posts of professional foresters promptly because theFRTC in Chittagong and FI in Sylhet could not supply a sufficient number oftrained personnel to FD as the expansion of facilities in these two institu-tions was delayed.

3.21 The employment situation improved markedly in 1983/84 when most ofthe posts were sanctioned and filled. However, frequent transfer of staffand delays in filling vacant posts have often left the project with several

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important posts vacant. Due to these frequent transfers, it is difficult toobtain a clear picture of staffing as newly recruited people were sometimesreplacing transferred staff. As can be seen below, the number of Rangers,Deputy Rangers and Forests Guards fluctuated so much that by mid-1985 theirrespective numbers dropped to a level below that of the pre-project period.

Key Staff in Post during some Supervision MissionsCompared to Appraisal Proposals

Staff Pre- June '81 Nov. '82 June '84 June '85Designation Project

App. In App. In App. In App. InProp. Post Prop. Post Prop. Post Prop. Post

Conservatorof Forests 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Deputy Con-servatorof Forests 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 5 2

Asst. Conser-vator ofForests 4 8 5 8 4 8 7 8 5

Ranger 29 31 24 34 24 52 39 56 26

Deputy Ranger 128 128 93 128 106 156 17i 168 87

Forest Guard 300 300 190 300 200 462 431 486 252

Training

3.22 It was recognized at the beginning of the project that recruitmentneeds for Forest Rangers and Forest Guards would exceed the actual capacitiesof the respective training centers at the Forest Rangers Training College,Chittagong and the Sylhet Forest Institute. It was therefore proposed toimprove and expand the capacity of these institutions.

3.23 At the FRTC, Chittagong, the project was to provide an additionaldormitory block to double the annual intake. No additional requirement forpermanent teaching staff was foreseen because of input by Forest ResearchInstitute staff. However, the project was to provide two mini-buses, train-ing and laboratory equipment and advanced training of permanent teachingstaff overseas. At the FI, Sylhet, the project was to finance an additionalinstructor and provide him with quarters, as a result of increasing thenumber of graduate Foresters.

3.24 The FRTC dormitory was completed in 1981-82, as well as the FIinstructor's quarters in 1982-83. No progress was made; however, an advanced

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staff training overseas and no program for training was drawn up. Projectstaff attended a series of short in-service management training courses andworkshops organized by the Banglade-h Agricultural Management TrainingInstitute. At the end of the project, the Ministry of Agriculture decidedthat the 29 ACFs who were to have received professional training overseaswere to follow a two-year course at the Chittagong Forestry College instead.This was agreed and is in progress.

3.25 A two-year M.Sc course for a Deputy Conservator of Forests in theUnited States was taken up in 1984. The Director of PTU also participated ina workshop on management implications of mangrove ecosystem productivity inMalaysia in 1983.

Mcnitoring

3.26 Remote Sensing. The project envisaged that remote sensing and/oraerial photography would be used in selection of sites for new plantations,to monitor land erosion and accretion as well as the establishment of projectplantations. The project provided funds for technical assistance, equipmentrental, materials, support of new aerial photography on an annual basis andthe purchase and processing of Landsat tapes. The program was contracted tothe Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization. It was recognized thatgroundtruthing would be a vital component of the program.

3.27 Black-and-white aerial photographs flown under contract in January1982 were initially used to prepare topographic maps at a scale of 1:30,000.This proved too small a scale, however, for plotting of annual plantationoperations, though a major improvement on previously available 1:50,000district maps. The availability of new color infrared aerial photography,flown in February 1984 outside project funding, allowed for more detailedmapping and SPARRSO prepared a new set of maps of the project area on a scaleof 1:10,000.

3.28 It was proposed by the Supervision mission of January 1983 that newmaps should show:

- stand types identified by species, maturity class, stocking, and yearof establishment;

- land suitable for the establishment of new plantations;

- land suitable for other land use.

In addition, it was proposed that SPARRSO should compile descriptive informa-tion by projecting successive annual data on the anticipated rates of accre-tion in the project area.

3.29 These aims proved unrealistic, partly because the color infraredphotographs, not flown until 1984, could not detect plantations less than 3years old. Plantations established during the life of the project had to beplotted manually from PD records and then ground truthed with the assistanceof PD staff. The final 1:10,000 maps, completed in 1985-86 but not generally

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available at Division and Range level when the project was completed, showplantations only in two main categories: more than 5 ft (1.5 m) and lessthan 5 ft tall, with canopy qualified qualitatively as 'thick' or 'thin'; theplantation blocks plotted from FD records, however, give dates of estab-lishment of individual blocks. Sample checks by the May 1985 SupervisionMission confirmed the accuracy of SPARRSO's plotting of FD plantation recordsand the block areas computed from it. The discrepancies between FD arearecords and those derived from SPARRSO plotting have beert discussed in para3.5 and Annex 2, Table 2.

3.30 In addition to the detailed topographic maps, an accretion/erosionmap based on 1979-80 Landsat imagery was produced in 1981. This was at ascale of 1:250,000, and could not therefore be used for detailed site selec-tion other than in broadly indicative terms.

3.31 While overall SPARRSO performance has been impressive in that itprovided detailed topographic maps of the coastal area, with plantationdetail added, the delays in the implementation of the program meant that thisinformation was not available until the project had ended.

Public Relations Program

3.32 The project made provision for a public relations program designed toinform both policy makers and the population in directly qffected areas, ofthe short and longer term benefits of coastal afforestation. Unfortunately,FD took no action to initiate this program during the first few years of theproject, despite repeated reminders by IDA.

3.33 In the final year of the project, FD produced a color cine film of 30minutes duration; a set of 60 slides; and a leaflet in Bengali and English.It is planned to distribute copies of the film, together with projectors andgenerators, to DFOs in each division, but this had not been achieved by theend of the project.

3.34 The film is a documentary about the Sunderbans' mangrove-basedindustry and the afforestation program. The latter forms a minor part of thefilm which departed considerably from the six areas of focus outlined in theProject Proforma. It is aimed at educated laymen and is suitable for TV,universities, colleges and schools and does not attempt to convince farmersof the usefulness of mangrove plantations to local communities as envisagedat appraisal.

Cyclone Damage Rehabilitation Program

3.35 The cyclone of May 25-26, 1985 caused considerable damage to theproject's civil works, equipment and plantations. The FD therefore proposedto rehabilitate the cyclone damage and required:

- replanting of 11,767 ac of damaged plantations;

- reconstruction and repair of buildings;

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- reconstruction and repair of boats, radio transceivers and otherequipment.

The program was implemented in 1985/86 at a total cost of Tk 6 million andwas the basis for extending project implementation into 1985/86 (para 3.2).

Procurement

3.36 Because of lack of previous experience of FD staff with IDA's proce-dures, procurement was slow during the first year of the project but improvedlater as the staff gained some experience and participated in a seminar onIDA procedures. Of all the items, boat procurement was given special atten-tion during project implementation as boats were crucial for the transporta-tion of staff, laborers, implements and planting material as well as forsupervision. Originally the project called for the provision of 100 boatscomprising 4 launches for supervisory staff, 1 boat equipped as a seed car-rier, 25 motorized work boats and 70 non-motorized country boats of large,medium and small sizes (category I, II and III respectively). This composi-tion was revised during the start of project implementation in favcr of morepowered boats (Annex 2, Table 17). Discussions on the subject of modifica-tion of boat composition and delay in bid preparations resulted in the firstboats reaching the project area only in 1982, instead of in 1980 as envisagedat appraisal.

3.37 The project faced serious problems in the procurement of 21 motorboats under ICB. These boats, which were of fibreglass reinforced plastic(FRP) with in-board diesel, reached the project area in late 1982. Soonafterwards they developed major mechanical problems. The project staffreported that the boats had longtitudinal instability problems during usage,in that the front of the vessel tended to dive in the water. Experts con-sulted by FD considered the problem had no simple solution as it was in thebasic design of the vessel. The boats were hardly utilized therefore and layabandoned and derelict throughout the project area. The IDA supervisionmission of June 1985 recommended that the boats be made usable or that theybe disposed of. Nothing, however, was done and in any case, by that timemost of them were probably mechanically unserviceable as they had been leftunprotected in the open since the end of 1982.

3.38 The project had no major difficulties in the procurement of otherequipment. With the exception of visual aid equipment (projectors, camerasand film), all other equipment were provided more or less on time. Thevisual aid equipment reached the project only in June 1986 at the end ofproject implementation and this is one of the reasons why the public tela-tions component never became operational. Delays occurred because of lowpriority being given to this component by FD.

Project Costs and Financing

3.39 Total project expenditures up to June 1986 amounted to Tk 252.51million (US$10.93 million) compared to appraisal estimates of Tk 275.17million (US$17.20 million). Total expenditures are about 9% and 37% lessthan appraisal estimates in Taka terms and US$ terms respectively. The

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considerably reduced expenditures in US$ terms are the result of the con-tinuous devaluation of the Taka with regard to the US$ during the projectimplementation period. Details of annual expenditures are shown in Annex 1,Table 2 and the comparison between appraisal and actual costs are summarizedin Annex 1, Table 2.

3.40 As shown in para 3.41, US$4 million from the total Credit was notutilized and IDA's share in project financing amounted to about 63% asopposed to 64% foreseen at appraisal, while Government's share increased from36Z to 37% as shown below.

Comparison of Costs and Financing betweenAppraisal Estimate and Actual

Appraisal Estimate Actual

Total costs (US$ million) 17.20 10.93Amount of ID Credit (US$ million) 11.00 7.0IDA financing (%) 64 63Government financing (X) 36 37

Disbursement

3.41 Because of the delays in procurement and the unfamiliarity of projectstaff with IDA procedures, no disbursement was made during the first year ofthe project. Disbursement of Credit commenced in the second year andprogressed well (Annex 1, Table 3). In order to expedite disbursement, IDAhad authorized withdrawal of certain expenditures such as direct plantingexpenditures, to be financed on the basis of Statement of Expenditures (SOE)provided these were audited annually and furnished to IDA. However, as thelatter conditions were not adhered to and the audits of SOE were overdue forthe entire project period, IDA in its letter to Government of July 14, 1986decided not to accept the application for disbursement based on SOE so longas the required audits continued to be overdue. This decision stopped tem-porarily the flow of disbursement but disbursements were resumed once thebacklog of overdue audits had been eliminated. At Credit closing date ofDecember 31, 1986 total IDA disbursements reached US$7 million and the undis-bursed balance of US$4 million was cancelled.

IV. INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

Overall Management

4.1 The project was managed through the four Divisions of the CoastalPlantation Circle (CPC), with headquarters at Khulna. Each Division is inthe charge of a DFO, reporting to a Conservator of Forests (Project Director)in charge of the CPC, who is directly responsible to the Chief Conservator ofForests in Dhaka. In addition to these territorial Divisions, PTU also hadDivisional status and its director, of Deputy Conservator status, reported toCF Khulna.

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4.2 Considerable expertise in plantation establishment already existed atrange and beat level when the project began and the utilization of thisexpertise at these levels acccunts for the success of the project in plantinglarge areas. The achievement in the establishment of new plantations at allstages from collection of seed, raising seed beds, transplanting, filling-inand beating-up over the early years of a plantation's life are satisfactory.However, apart from removal of climbers, management of existing plantationshas been less satisfactory. This is because the PTU failed to develop athinning methodology that could have been included in the forest managementplan, work on which is expected to be completed in mid-1987. The failure ofproject management in responding promptly to solve the difficulties faced byPTU, public relations components and procurement of the FRP boats has shown acertain weakness in project management in solving problems which arise out-side strictly plantation activities.

4.3 SPARRSO obtained aerial photos in the second year of the project andproduced a base map, at a scale of 1:30,000, in 1983. The map showed theexisting plantations, geographical data and location and size of new accre-tions. In 1984 SPARRSO obtained new photos, taken for the Survey Department,and commenced updating the original base map. This new base map, at a scaleof 1:10,000, was completed in late 1986. The new SPARRSO map provides anaccurate base for recording project progress and physical changes in theproject area. It will be used during the implementation of the SecondForestry Project to identify areas for planting, monitoring plantationdevelopment and for the management -f resources. This map has also been madeavailable to and is widely used by other Government agencies operating in theBay area.

4.4 The repair and maintenance of project equipment, particularly boatsand engines presented grave difficulties throughout the project, especiallyas the size of the fleet increased. This was attributed mainly to lack oftrained maintenance personnel and to non-availability of spares, which is notstrictly the fault of project management as they did not obtain sufficientbudgetary funds. The fact remains, however, that poor repair and maintenanceand limited operational funds have resulted in the poor utilization and/orunderutilization of project equipment. Supervision of project works bysenior project staff was hampered because of this and was not correctedthroughout the whole implementation period.

Reporting and Accounting

4.5 The Project Director's office was responsible for the consolidationof the four DFO's reports into monthly, six-monthly and annual progressreports and for submission of these to IDA. It was also responsible for thesubmission of annual audit reports. While the project management regularlyproduced monthly and annual progress reports on time, as these were normallyrequired under FD procedures, they were not as punctual and as regular inproducing the six-monthly reports required by IDA. The reports were precisein providing works accomplished and relative expenditures incurred but wereless analytical iD providing reasons for non-accomplishment of planned works.For example, the reports fail to explain satisfactorily why the public rela-tions program wvvs not taken up.

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4.6 According to the Development Credit Agreement, audited projectaccounts should be furnished to IDA not later than nine months after the endof the fiscal year. However, the audit reports were not furnished regularlyto IDA within the established time, although audit of project accounts wascarried out at intervals during the fiscal year and at the end of each fiscalyear. In spite of the supervision missions' reminders for compliance withthe Credit Agreement, the project management was not completely successful infulfilling this requirement. The supervision mission of November 1983pointed out that audited accounts for the fiscal year 1981/82 were overdue.The following mission of July 1984 again reminded the project management thataudit reports for 1981/82 and 1982/83 were overdue although audits have beencompleted for both fiscal years. The supervision mission of May 1985repeated that audit reports for 1981/82 and 1982/83 were overdue. Thereports were later furnished to IDA but the fact remains that management wasslow in complying with this specific covenant.

Compliance with Covenants

4.7 In general, Government has complied with all major covenants.However, it was extremely slow in furnishing IDA with audit reports, althoughaccording to the Development Credit Agreement, reports of audited projectaccounts were to be furnished to IDA not later than nine months after the endof each fiscal year (para 4.6). The reason for this delay was mainly due toslow auditing process by the Director of Audit's office.

V. PROJECT TMPACT

Growth and Yield of Plantations

5.1 Preliminary results from growth and yield data from sample plots inboth Keora and Baen plantations have been made available by UNDP ForestInventory Project in the absence of comparable data generated by PTU. Sum-mary volume and mean annual increment data for Keora (aged 7-14 years) aresummarized in Annex 2, Table 6 and for Baen (aged 8-15 years) in Annex 2,Table 7). Preliminary thinning and yield data are calculated in Annex 2,Table 8 for Keora on the basis of first thinning in Year 6 and thinning inYear 11, and either final felling or third thinning in Year 14 and finalfelling in Year 17. The 14-year option yields a total volume over bark of2,681 cu ft/ac, and the 17-year option 3,497 cu ft/ac. Annex 2, Table 9gives similar calculations for Baen based on first thinning in Year 7, secondthinning in Year 12 and final felling in Year 17: this yields a total volumeover bark of 1,438 cu ft/ac. Annex 2, Table 10 summarizes the increasedproduction generated by these management procedures over present productionwithout thinning. The 17-year rotation increases mean annual increment by aminimum 50% for Keora and 37% for Baen.

5.2 At the beginning of the project it was estimated that the plantationswould yield 2,640 cu ft/ac fuelwood, 550 cu ft/ac pulpwood, and 450 cu ft/acsawlogs, totalling 3,640 cu ft/ac over 20 years.

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Production Estimates

5.3 The appraisal mission made estimates of yield of fuelwood, pulpwoodand sawlogs from the plantations established during the project. Theseestimates were subject to the following reservations:

(a) they were based on data obtained by Forestal International Consult-ants in 1959 in the Sunderbans for Gewa (Excoecaria agallocha) sinceno growth data were available for Keora and Baen;

(b) these data were used to generate growth and yield tables for Keoraand Baen assuming growth rates similar to Gewa;

(c) growth rates of Keora and Baen were assumed the same;

(d) yields were based on thinning in Year 9 and felling in Year 17;

(e) production calculations also assumed that plantation targets weremet.

Details of the estimates are given in SAR, Annex 5.

5.4 Comparison of appraisal estimates of growth and yield with thepreliminary estimates made by the UNDP Forest Inventory Project (UNDP/FIP)show close correspondence over Keora growth rates. However, the appraisalcalculations greatly overestimate Baen growth rates, and since Baen is saidto occupy 20% of the plantation areas, this will have a significant effect oncalculated production.

5.5 Finally these new calculations assume that the initial target of100,000 ac (15,000 ac in Years 1 and 2, 20,000 ac in Year 3, and 25,000 ac inYears 4 and 5) were achieved, and that the ratio 80:20 for Keora and Baenapplied uniformly throughout the program.

5.6 If, however, the SPARRSO area estimates are accepted as correct, thecalculated production figure must be scaled down to 88,203 ac assuming thatareas designated as failed plantations would be successfully replanted. Forthe purpose of economic re-evaluation of the project the lower figure of75,381 ac (para 3.5) was used.

5.7 Annex 2, Table 11 gives Appraisal Mission estimates of productionunder the above constraints; Annex 2, Table 12, gives estimates of productionof Keora and Table 13 of Baen, based on UNDP/FIP data. It is difficult tocompartmentalize the two sets of data into fuelwood, pulpwood and sawlogs ina manner which enables the tables to be directly compared. However, thetotal production estimates are as follows:

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Total ProductionComparison with per ac over

Total Production Appraisal Mission Project Life ofEstimate over Project Life Estimates 21 years

(cu ft) (%) (cu ft)

Appraisal mission 364,400,000 - 3,644

Present estimateusing FD area figure 308,542,000 -15.3 3,085.4

Present estimate usingSPARRSO area figure 231,406,000 -36.5 3,085.4

5.8 On present knowledge, therefore, there will be a shortfall of 15% intotal production compared with appraisal, largely accounted for by thereduced yield of Baen planted on 20% of the area, if FD estimates of planta-tion areas are accepted, and of 36% if SPARRSO area estimates (25% belowthose of FD) are accepted.

5.9 No data is available on commercial wood production from mangrove

plantations in Bangladesh. The UNDP/FIP estimates of total yield for Keora(Annex 2, Table 12) and Baen (Annex 2, Table 13), assuming a 17-year rotationand three thinnings for the former and a 17-year rotation and two thinningsfor the latter, are used to generate commercial wood production estimates onthe following assumptions:

- The plantations are managed as specified: Keora production would besubstantially reduced by using a 14-year rotation with two thinnings.

- The relative areas occupied by Keora and Baen are taken as 80:20,and the FD total area estimate of 100,000 ac is accepted.

- In the UNDP/FIP estimates, volume + 10 cm diameter top inside barkis assigned to roundwood and the difference between this and totalvolume is assigned to fuelwood and pulpwood.

- It is assumed that in the category fuetwood and pulpwood, 100% isassigned to fuelwood and that the percentage of marketable fuelwoodincreases through the life of the plantation as follows: 15% in Year6-7, 20% in Year 8-9, 25% in Year 10-11, 30% in Year 12-13, 35% inYear 14-15, 40% in Year 16-17, 45% in Year 18-19, and 50% in Year20-21. These proportions are estimates only -- the absolute volumesof marketable fuelwood will fall markedly if a proportion of theoutput is assigned to pulpwood.

- It is assumed that poles comprise 100% of roundwood production inYear 6-9, 90% in Year 10-13, 80% in Year 14-17 and 70% in Year 18-21and that the rest comprises sawlogs.

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5.10 Annex 2, Table 14 gives volumetric estimates of wood production forKeora and Baen on the basis of the above assumptions. No direct comparisonis possible with estimates of output made at appraisal, since these madedifferent assumptions (yield the same for the two species, single thinningstrategy, substantial consumption as pulpwood, fixed ratio of poles and sawntimber to fuelwood and pulpwood, fixed or less variable ratio of marketableto non-marketable fuelwood).

5.11 Given the above assumptions, the output of marketable fuelwood, polesand sawlogs over the 17 years of plantation life is set out in Annex 2, Table15, totalling:

Cubic Feet

Marketable fuelwood a/ 32,070,700Poles 167,576,300Sawlogs 59,471,700

a/ Including pulpwood. At present, thereis a long-term agreement between FD andthe main newsprint producer (Kulna News-print Mills) to supply the necessary pulpfrom the Sundarbans at a nominal priceof Tk 0.1 per -u ft, much lower than thepresent fuelwood market prices.

In addition to variations which would result from changing yield assumptions,these figures are subject to a 25% reduction if SPARRSO rather than FD areaestimates are accepted, and a further 10% reduction if wastage is taken intoaccount. Taking both these modifications into account would reduce theoutput to:

Cubic Feet

Marketable fuelwood 21,647,700Poles 113,114,000Sawlogs 40,143,400

Environmental Impact

5.12 The main environmental impact of the project has been the creation ofextensive blocks of littoral woodland throughout the coastal areas ofBangladesh. Though information to quantify all benefits are lacking, theseplantations have undoubtedly stabilized accretions, assisted the process oftheir vertical and lateral expansion, and inhibited the remobilization ofsediment by waves and tidal currents. While it is again impossible to quan-tify, the creation of these plantations will have a favorable effect onnearshore fish stocks and yields (it is estimated that 100,000 ac of mangroveelsewhere in Southeast Asia can produce 1,000 tons of shrimp per annum).

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5.13 Little specific information is available on the effects of cyclonesduring the project period (Annex 2, Table 16) other than that of the majorcyclone of May 25-26, 1985. There is, nevertheless, considerable anecdotalevidence of reduction of physical effects at and within plantations and itappears that the local population perceives plantations to have a protectivefunction during such storms. This is undoubtedly the case with larger plan-tations which may be up to 1 mile wide and 50 ft tall. However, in spiteof the damage and a storm surge reported to be 20 ft high, the 1985 cyclonefell well short of the more extreme conditions which can be experienced inbig cyclones. It is thus difficult to draw conclusions about cyclone effectsin general from this one event.

Social Benefits

5.14 The project has increased both permanent and casual employment in theplantation areas. The plantation establishment program employed 4,000unskilled laborers for 5-6 months each year during the project. It isexpected that if the plantation management program can be devised and putinto full operation, a similar number will be employed for a further 16years, until 2000-01, on thinning and felling operations. As anticipated,one of the chief benefits of the program will appear during Years 6-21 whenfuelwood will relieve the demand for imported kerosene and will also releasecow dung for use as manure. In the longer term (from Year 17, 1996-97onwards) accreted lands will be available for agriculture.

Technological Change

5.15 Technological advance has been less than expected during the project,largely because of the failure of the PTU. The main change in plantationestablishment has been the extension of beating-up beyond Years 1 and 2. Theonly noteworthy technological change introduced by the project has been theproduction of 1:10,000 topographic maps derived from high--quality colorinfrared photography for the entire coastal area. In practice, Landsatremote sensing made a negligible contribution to the project, in spite ofexpectations.

VI. ECONOMIC RE-EVALUATION

6.1 An economic re-evaluation has been undertaken for the project inwhich production of 32.07 million cu ft of fuelwood, 167.58 million cu ft ofpoles and 59.47 million cu ft of sawlogs have been considered as projectbenefits. IJ benefit has been assumed under the "without" project situationas the benefits foregone in sporadic grazing in the plantation areas would belargely offset by the non-marketable fuelwood not taken into account asbenefits. The analysis has been carried out in 1985/86 prices, 2ith pastexpenditures expressed in 1985/86 terms using the general cos. of livingindex. 1/ Phased investment costs in current terms are shown in Annex 1,

I/ The general cost of living indices are: 6^, 67, 76, 86, 93 and 100 forthe Years 1980/81 to 1985/86 respectively. As figures for 1985/86 werenot available, a similar rate as for 1984/85 has been used.

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Table 1 while those in economic terms are given in Annex 3, Table 3. Detailson production are shown in Annex 2, Tables 12-15.

6.2 Economic prices for fuelwood are derived assuming that 80% wouldreplace imported kerosene and 20% other domestic energy sources (Annex 3,Table 1). Using this assumption, the economic price for mangrove fuelwoodis Tk 4.45/cu ft, as compared to the average market price of Tk 5/cu ft. Theeconomic price of poles has been derived by adjusting the average marketprice of Tk 20/cu ft by the Standard Conversion Factor (SCF) of 0.83. Thisgives Tk 17/cu ft. The economic price of sawlogs is based on the World Bankprice forecast for 1995 at 1986 prices (Annex 3, Table 2). This has beenadjusted for quality difference and is estimated at Tk 41/cu ft. All localcosts (74% of total) have been brought to border prices using the SCF. Laborfor plantation establishment and management has been costed at 75% of finan-cial prices. For this purpose, labor costs have been estimated to amount to60% of total costs for the establishment of plantations and 70% for planta-tion management.

6.3 Based on the above assumption, the current estimate of the project'seconomic rate of return would be about 21%, which is slightly higher thanthat estimated at appraisal (18%). The main reasor. fur this difference isthe early generation of benefits as the result of anticipated and increasedn.mber of thinnings assumed under this analysis, following the plan of FD.At appraisal, only one thinning in Year 9 and clear felling in Year 17 wasanticipated as opposed to current plans of three thinnings for Keora and twofor Baen starting in Years 6 and 7 respectively and felling in Year 17.However, the actual economic rate of return is 18% when benefits are reducedby 25% taking into account SPARRSO's figures for total planted area.

VII. IDA PERFORMANCE

Project Design and Appraisal

7.1 Given the develop'd expertise in mangrove plantation establishment,IDA's decision to support further mangrove plantation, with concomitant woodproduction, employment creation and long-term prospects of addition of newagricultural land was sound.

7.2 Targets for plantation establishment for he first two years weredeliberately kept low in anticipation of a lag in building executioncapability in the project. However, the program for research was expected tostart immediately in order to produce results within the project implementa-tion period needed to meet project performance targets. Creation of the PTUas a projezt-specific research unit separate from the Bangladesh ForestResearch Institute (BFRI) was a deliberate decision made by the appraisalteam which was not impressed by the track record of BFRI at that time.However the dependence of the PTU on external expertise can be considered asa weakness of project design. When the consultant failed to continue and FDproved unsuccessful in hiring a new consultant, practically no usable infor-mation was produced by PTU. Without necessary data and expertise some of theolder plantations requiring silvicultural treatments, or final felling,remained untended.

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Supervision

7.3 The project supervision responsibility was divided equally betweenIDA's headquarters and its resident mission. From start-up to completion IDAsent eight full supervision missions, of which five were one-man missions andonly four included a forestry specialist. IDA supervision missions iden-tifie,. most of the key problems and made appropriate recommendations. TheResident Mission assisted the project authority especially in resolvingprocurement and disbursement related problems. IDA's June 1985 supervisionmission which identified the erroneous rPoprting by FD hired an airplane andflew the Chief Conservator of Forest over the project area to convince him toagree on an independent verification. IDA headquarters assisted FD in iden-tifying candidates for the research consultancy at the beginning of theproject as well as later on when the first consultant discontinued his serv-ices. Moreover, as early as 1983, upon the production of the first base map,IDA informed GOB about the availability of accreted land within the projectarea suitable for other land uses and recommended action for theirappropriate use. However, IDA was unsuccessful in getting GOB to resolveproblems related to the 21 motorboats and establish an effective publicrelations program.

VIII. ISSUES

8.1 The following issues are important to the future development ofmangrove plantations:

(a) Operation and Maintenance of Boats. Implementation and supervisionof the project was constrained by lack of funds for operation andpurchase of spare parts and by poor maintenance. At completion thissituation has not improved and will adversely affect the managementof existing plantations and expai-sion of future mangrove plantations.

(b) Forest Management Plans. Because of the failure of PTU, the firstmanagement plans, which are being prepared under the Second ForestryProject, will be based on limited growth data obtained during theinventory of the plantations and some intelligent guesses. Whilethis should continue in the absence of better alternatives, theperformance of BFRI in carrying out research and trials under theresearch component of the Second Forestry Project needs to be closelymonitored to insure that appropriate information will be availableas early as possible to update the initial plans.

(c) Public Relations. Although some evidence suggests that the localpopulation is considering mangrove plantations as useful to them interms of providing protection and shelter during bad weather and insupplying them with fuelwood, many landless farmers prefer to usethese lands for agricultural purposes and for grazing in spite oftheir instability. A vigorous public relations program aimed atconvincing farmers that the plantation will ultimately benefit thelocal communities is necessary. Otherwise, as the program expands,

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plantation of mangroves might risk facing strong opposition from thelocal communities.

IX. CHANGES IN THE FOLLOW-UP PROJECT

9.1 The following changes have been incorporated in the mangrove affores-tation component of the Second Forestry Project, as a result of experiencegained in the present project:

- beating-up is to be extended into Year 3 and removal of climbers intoYear 8, and special attention is to be given to the removal of fallentrees because of the damage they can cause when carried by the tide;

- a fixed rotation period of 18-20 years is inappropriate becausegrowth is rapid up to 8-10 years and then ceases, particularly wheresite conditions change because of fast accretion;

- a more reasonable planting-out spacing would be 5 x 5 ft ratherthan 4 x 4 ft, to reduce establishment cost and avoid unnecessarythinning;

- coordination among land use agencies in the coastal area should beestablished to prevent allocation of some mangrove areas for otheruses before the plantations are mature.

9.2 In addition, under the Second Forestry Project:

- PTU will operate under the control of BFRI;

- there will be a six-month consultancy for a socio-economic surveyto determine the impact of plantations on local people; and

- a resource management system will be installed to manage establishedplantations.

9.3 Data from the UNDP Forest Inventory Program has shown that whilegrowth slows after Years 8-10, it does not cease. However, this reduction inmean annual increment in the plantations so far studied is largely due toweakness of management (insufficient thinning). Inhibition of growth byaccretion has been reported, but to date the evidence is not fully conclusiveand this condition may well be sporadic. Data of the UNDP/FIP indicated thatyield is maximized with a 17-year rotation. However, at certain sitesmangrove conditions change much earlier due to rapid accretion and resultingdecrease in the frequency of inundation and stands need to be removed ear-lier.

9.4 The increase in spacing from 4x4 to 5x5 ft is justified because itwould reduce establishment cost and eliminate non-commercial thinnings.Although observations on young plantations indicated that 4x4 ft spacing istoo dense there is not enough information yet to determine the optimalspacing.

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9.5 The Second Forestry Project proposes additional staff costs formangrove afforestation of Tk 15.5 million. However, this provides only foradministrative, supervisory and field staff, and there is no provision formaintenance or service personnel, the lack of which contributed to implemen-tation difficulties and delays in the present project. Consideration needsto be given to FD making adequate boat and vehicle maintenance arrangementswithin CPC.

X. CONCLUSIONS AND LESSONS LEARNED

10.1 The project has shown conclusively that it is feasible to establishlarge-scale mangrove plantations in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Theproject also demonstrated that intensive monitoring of the status of planta-tions is essential when site conditions are subject to fast changes, as it isthe case of accreted lands. For lack of a well-defined management system atthe onset of the project implementation, plantations established prior to theproject did not receive the required silvicultural treatments.Unavailability of data on silvicultural treatments of mangrove plantationsestablished on such dynamic site conditions apparently discouraged the intro-duction of precise management prescriptions at appraisal. In view of thisinformation gap, a project-specific research and trial unit, the PTU, wasincluded in the project. However, making the PTU strongly dependent onexternal technical assistance was an important error in project design.Starting impiementation of the project without having a reliable map of theproject area was unavoidable. Although under the project SPARRSO was toproduce such a map which indeed became available later, the Forest Departmentfailed to use it for the intended purpose, mainly due to lack of trainedstaff and established organization. As a consequence, a significantdicrepancy was found between the Forest Department's claim of area plantedand that measured on the basis of SPARRSO's map.

10.2 Major lessons which can be learned from the project are:

(a) new plantations should be treated as an integral part of the existingforest resources and a technically sound forest management system,capable of accommodating the management requirements of establishedplantations, should be made operational during the project implmenta-tion period;

(b) designing a research program as a minor component of a forestryproject if the main objective of the project is to attain largeoperational targets should be avoided. Preference should be given insuch cases to including the research program within the generalprogram of an existing research institute or to establish a researchentity with independent administration and financing; and

(c) surveying and mapping should be treated as a specific activity ofthose forestry projects which include establishing and/or managinglarge-scale plantations. This will permit specifying more preciselyoperations involved, work standards, as well as resource require-ments.

MINGLADESB

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Proiect Costs

1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total

------ …-----------------(Tk 1,000) … - … -

Plantation Development

Establishment of new plantation 5,403 6,757 9,400 12,459 16,393 - 50,412Management of existing plantation 1,030 3,131 3,494 4,976 8,085 - 20,7168taff housing and offices 618 8,639 8,878 10,147 5,129 - 33,411Boats, vehicls and equipment 974 10,406 27,223 2,662 1,362 - 42,627Maintenance and repair 209 969 1.689 6.337 3.430 - 12.634

Sub-total 8,234 29,902 50,684 36,581 34,399 - 159,800

uipport Services w

Plantation trial unit 294 3,705 1,742 1,289 547 - 7,577Public relations and training - - 30 33 1,713 - 1,776Remote sensing 2.155 2.176 733 1.470 227 - 6.761

Sub-total 2,449 6,881 2,505 2,792 2,487 - 16,114

Staff salaries and allowances 6,931 11,500 12,133 14,508 15,498 - 60,570

Duties and taxes - - 8,218 500 305 - 9,023

Cyclone damage rehabilitation - - - 6.000 6.000

Total 17,614 47,283 73,540 54,381 52,689 6,000 251,507

Source: Conservator of Forests, Plantation Circle, Khulna.

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-80)

Comoarison Between: Appraisal Cost Estimates and Actual Expenditures

Appraisal Estimates Actual Expenditures(Tk M) (US$ M) (% of Total) (Tk M) (USS M) 1/ (% of Total)

Plantation Development

Establishment of new plante*ion 39.17 2.45 14 50.41 2.19 20Management of existing plantation 51.01 3.19 19 20.72 0.88 8Staff housing and offices 23.11 1.44 8 33.41 1.45 13Boats, vehicles and equipment 20.80 1.30 8 42.63 1.89 17Maintenance and repair 41.37 2.59 15 12.63 0.52 5

Sub-total 175.46 10.97 64 159.80 6.93 63

Support Services

Plantation trial unit 8.69 0.54 3 7.58 0.35 3Public relations and training 2.95 0.19 1 1.7B 0.07 1 lRemote sensing 9.97 0.63 4 6.76 0.34 3

Sub-total 21.61 1.36 16.12 0.76 7

Staff salaries and allowances - - 60.57 2.68 25

Duties and taxes - - - 9.02 0.38 3

Cyclone damage and rehabilitation - - - 6.00 0.18 2

Physical and price contingencies 78.10 4.87 28 - -

Total Project Costs 275.17 17.20 100 251.51 10.93 100

1/ Average annual exchange rates used are US$ = Tk : 16.34, Z0.04, 23.76, 24.95. 26.06 and 33for the years ended 1980/81 to 1985/86 respectively. ZID

l\~l-

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ANNE 1Table 3

BANGLADESH

MAINGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Disbursement of Credit(US$ million)

Fiscal Year Appraisal Estimate Actual

Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative

1981 0.7 0.7 - -

1982 2.6 3.3 2.0 2.01983 2.0 5.3 0.4 2.41984 2.5 7.8 1.8 4.21985 2.4 10.2 1.2 5.41986 0.8 11.0 1.0 6.41987 - - 0.6 7.0

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Development of Mangrove Plantations

Year Chittagong Noakhali Barisal Patuakhali

Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative-(--------------- ----------- acres)…------------ …-_________________________

1960-61 100 100 - - - - - o1961-62 75 175 - - - - - 1751962-63 75 250 - - - - - 2501963-64 48 298 - - - - - 2981964-65 115 413 - - - - - 4131965-66 108 521 - - - - 30 5511966-67 226 747 26 26 - - 800 1.6031967-68 1.350 2.097 700 726 15') 150 850 4.6531968-69 816 2.913 682 1.408 375 525 725 7.2511969-70 350 3.263 167 1,575 225 750 800 8,7931970-71 647 3.910 232 1,807 - 750 - 9.6721971-72 263 4.173 255 2,062 91) 840 - 10,2801972-73 175 4,348 100 2,162 10 850 - 10,5651973-74 655 5,003 955 3,117 165 1.015 - 12.340 11974-75 1,590 6,593 1.200 4,317 1,055 2,070 1,220 17.405 w1975-76 4,380 10.973 2,740 7,057 2,087 4,157 2.923 29,535 01976-77 6,140 17.113 5,420 12,477 2.556 6.713 2.165 45.816 11977-78 3,310 20.423 5.500 17,977 2.100 8.813 1.250 57,9761978-79 4.225 24,648 4,575 22.552 3.809 12,622 3,290 73,8751979-80 3.798 28,446 5.650 28,202 3,170 15,792 3.040 89.5331980-S1 3.500 31,946 5,000 33.202 4.024 19,816 2,500 104,5571981-82 3.500 35.446 5.100 38,302 4,000 23.816 2,500 119,6571982-83 4.900 40,346 7,000 45,302 5,000 28.816 3.100 139.6571983-84 5.500 45.846 9.500 54.802 7,500 36.316 2.500 164.6571984-85 5.800 51.646 9.500 64,302 6,300 42.616 3.100 189,357 1/

1/ The project also replanted 11,767 ac in 1985-86 under the Cyclone Rehabilitation Program.

Source: Conservator of Forests, Plantation Circle. Khulna.

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-0D)

Comparison of Forest Department and SPARRSO Plantation Areas(1980-81 to 1984-85)

Plantations Estab-Planted Area Shown lished Successfully Difference Between

Plantation Area According from Aerial Photo- Determined by Forest Department andDivision to Forest Department graphs by SPARRSSO SPARRSO SPARRSO Planted Area

…------------------------------- (ac)----------------------------- (ac) (%)

Chittagong 21,800 21.395 16.225 8,445 34.05

Noakhali 33,920 32,695 32,368 977 2.88

Barisal 26.667 20,672 13,405 12.779 47.92

Patuakhali 13,708 13,441 13,384 302 2.02

Total 99.095 88,203 75,382 22,502 22.71

Source: FO area data and SPARRSO tabulation.

Fl

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Size of Annual Plantations by Division(ac)

Vear Division

Chittagong Noakhali Barisal Patuakhali Total/Mean

1980-81 Total area planted 3,500 5.650 4,287.5 2.525 15,962.5Number of plantations 19 17 16 22 74Mean size plantations 184.2 332.4 268.0 114.8 215.7Maximum size plantations 600 1,200 900 500 -

1981-82 Total area planted 3.500 5.000 4,000 2.500 15.000Number of plantations 13 14 14 18 59Mean size plantations 269.2 357.1 285.7 138.9 254.2Maximum size plantations 650 900 1.100 400 -

1982-83 Total area planted 4,900 5,050 5,000 3.088 18.038Number of plantations 19 17 13 33 82Mean size plantations 257.9 297.1 384.6 93.6 220.0Maximum size plantations 800 1.100 1,470 750 -

1983-84 Total area planted 5,500 7,000 7,500 2.500 22,500Number of plantations 5 16 24 '8 73Mean size plantations 366.7 437.5 312.5 138.9 308.2Maximum size plantations 2,595 950 1,425 300 -

1984-85 Total area planted 5,800 9,300 6,250 3,100 24.450Number of plantations 14 22 15 18 69Mean size plantations 414.3 422.7 416.7 172.2 354.3Maximum size plantations 2.000 1,550 2,000 300 -

Source: Forest Department, Dhaka: DFO Patuakhali; DFO Chittagong - Data for 1985-86 not available.

IfD f

RANGLADESH

XANCROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Sixe-Freauency Distribution of Annual Plantation Blocks(1980-81 - 1984/85)

Division --------------- Area (acres) ---------------------------------------- …----------------0-100 101-200 201-300 301-400 401-50s 501-600 601-700 701-800 801-900 901-1000 1001-1100 1101-1200 1201-1500 >1501

Chittagong 40 10 6 4 2 7 5 2 - I - - - 2

Eoakhali 23 16 9 9 4 6 7 4 3 1 2 1 - I

Barisal 28 17 11 8 5 1 1 - 3 2 1 - 2 2

Patuakbali 67 18 16 4 2 1 - I - - - _- -

Total 158 61 42 13 15 13 7 6 4 3 2 sI Total Number

of Weeks 44.5 17.2 11.8 7.0 3.7 4.2 3.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 1.4

Source: Forest Department.

8ANGLAOESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Status of Plantation Areas in 1985

Area Occupied by Trees Area Occupied by Trees Total Area Area of Total

Division Over 5 ft (1.5 m) Tall Over 5 ft (1.5 m) Tall_ OccuPied by Plantations Plantations

ThicK Canopy Thin Canopy Thick Canopy Thin Canopy Trees Without Trees Area

----------- (ac)---------- ----------- (ac)---------- (ac) (ac) (ac)

Chittagong 1,650 2.187 3,841 8.547 16.225 5,170 21.395

Noakhali 5,017 1,261 9.186 10.904 32.368 327 32.695

Barisal 1,212 3.084 3.381 5.729 13,405 7.268 20.672

Patuakhali 3.251 1.719 2,292 6,122 13,384 57 13,441 -

Total 11.130 8,250 18.700 37.301 75.382 12.822 88.203

Source: SPARRSO tabulation.

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-OD)

Preliminary Yield Data for Keora (Sonneratia apetala)

Volume (total Mean Annual Volume +10 cm Top Mean AnnualAge Mean D0H Mean He1iht Number per e bark- Increment Inside Bark Increment

(years) (cm) (1n) (m) (ft) lha) (ac) (m3/ha) (ft3/ac) (m3/ha) (ft3/ac) (m3/ha) (ft3/ac) (m3/ha) (ft3/ac)

7 8.2 3.2 7.2 23.6 2.582 1.045 59.3 847.9 8.5 121.5 28.9 413.2 4.1 58.6

8 9.3 3.7 7.6 24.9 2,200 891 64.6 923.7 8.1 115.8 32.9 470.4 4.1 58.6

9 9.2 3.6 8.5 27.9 2.341 948 7i.6 1,023.7 8.0 114.4 44.9 100.0 5.0 71.5

10 12.0 4.7 10.2 33.5 1.590 644 84.7 1,211.0 8.5 121.5 65.7 939.4 6.6 94.4

11 12.5 4.5 10.2 33.5 1.759 712 87.0 1,243.9 7.9 113.0 68.8 983.7 6.3 90.1 4'

12 13.1 5.2 l1.3 37.1 1.783 722 116.6 1.667.1 9.7 138.7 104.8 1.498.4 8.7 124.4

13 15.4 6.1 10.8 35.4 1.009 409 85.2 1,218.2 0.6 94.4 65.5 936.5 5.0 71.5

14 18.3 7.2 11.6 38.1 738 299 87.1 1,245.4 6.2 88.6 70.7 1,010.9 5.0 71.5

Source: UNDP Forest Inventory Project.

C% K

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Preliminary Yield Data for Baen (Avicennia officinalis)

Age Mean D8H Mean Height Number per Volume (total over bark Mean Annual Increment

(years) cm in m ft ha ac m3/ha ft3/ac m3/ha ft3/ac

a 4.3 1.7 3.9 12.8 1.756 711 9.6 137.3 1.2 17.2

9 6.7 2.6 5.9 19.4 2.655 1,075 38.7 553.3 4.3 61.5

10.5 9.3 3.7 6.1 20.0 797 323 20.8 297.4 2.0 28.6

12.5 6.1 2.4 5.5 18.0 1.929 781 23.1 330.3 1.8 25.7 1

15 8.7 3.4 6.5 21.3 1.766 715 42.5 607.7 2.8 40.0 >

Source: UNOP Forest Inventory Project.

lb1

IANGLADESH

MIANGOVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Preliminary Thinning and Yiel4 Table for Keora (Sonneratia aoetala)

Remainina Crop Thinning Crop Total

AuL Mean Mean Number per Volume (m3/ha) Mean Mean Num ber per Volume (m3/ha) Cumulative Volume Mean AnnualIncrement

(years) Diameter Weiiht ha/ac (ft3/ac) Diameter Weieht ha/ac (ft31ac) (.3/ha) (ft3/ac) (W3/ba) (ft3/ac) CuttinR Operations

(cm) (in) B (cm) (m) A B L A L

(i) (ft) (in) (ft)

o - - 4.000 - - - - - _ _ _ _ _

-- 1,619 - - - - - - - _ _ _

3 3.5 3.0 3,500 - - - - - - - _ _ _

1.4 9.8 1,417 - - - - -

6 7.0 6.5 2,500 41.4 18.0 6.0 6.0 1,000 12.2 4.9 53.6 22.9 8.9 3.8 First thinning '

2.8 21.3 1,012 591.9 257.4 2.4 19.7 405 174.4 70.1 766.4 327.4 127.3 54.3

11 12.0 10.0 1,800 94.8 71.0 10.0 8.0 700 23.9 12.9 130.9 88.8 11.9 8.1 Second thinning

4.7 32.80 729 1,355.5 1,015.2 3.9 26.2 2B3 341.7 184.4 1,871.6 1,269.7 170.1 115.8

14 18.0 11.0 1,000 111.5 82.7 12.0 9.0 8O 39.9 24.6 187.5 125.1 13.4 8.9 Third thinning

7.1 36.1 405 1,594.2 1,182.4 4.7 29.5 324 570.5 351.7 2,680.9 1,788.7 191.6 127.3 or final felling

17 22.0 12.5 1,000 168.6 144.4 - - - - - 244.6 186.8 14.4 11.0 Final felling

8.7 41.0 405 2,410.6 2,064.6 - - - - - 3,497.3 2,670.9 205.9 157.3

A: Total volume over bark.3: Volume +10 cm diameter top inside bark.

Source: UNDP Forest Inventory Project preliminary results for 79 sampling units in Noakhali, Patuakhali, Chittagong and Barisal Divisions.

BANGLADESU

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Preliminary Thinnine and Yield Table for BMen (Avicennia officin2I,).

RemaininR Crop Thinnirn CroD Totale8t Mean Mean Number per olue (m1/ha) Mean Mean Number per Volume (m3/ha) Cumulative Volume Mean Annual

Increment(years) Diameter Veiaht ha/Lc (ft31ac) Diameter Weight balac (ft31ac) (m3/ba) (ft3/ac) (m3/ba) (ft31ac) Cutting Oycrations

(c) (m) A B (cm) (m) A B A B A B(in) (ft) (in) (ft)

O - 4.000 - - - - - - _ _ _ _ - _-- 1.619 - - - - - - -

3 - 2.0 3.500 - - - - _ - - _ _- 66.6 1.417 - - -

7 3.0 4.0 2.500 7.4 1.9 3.0 3.0 1,000 2.5 0.4 9.9 2.3 1.4 0.3 First thinning1.2 13.1 1,012 105.8 27.2 1.2 9.8 405 35.7 5.7 141.6 32.9 20.0 4.3

12 7.5 6.0 1.800 32.2 11.7 6.0 5.0 700 7.7 2.2 42.4 14.3 3.5 1.2 Second thinning3.0 15.2 729 460.4 167.3 2.4 16.4 283 110.1 31.5 606.2 204.5 50.0 17.2

17 12.5 8.0 1,800 90.4 44.2 - - - - 100.6 46.8 5.9 2.8 Final felling4.9 20.3 729 1,292.5 632.0 - - - - - 1,438.4 669.1 84.4 40.0

A: Total volume over bark.B: Volume +10 cm diameter top inside bark.

Source: UNDP Forest Inventory Project preliminary results for 24 sampling units in Chittagong and Noakhali Divisions.

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-80)

Comparison of Plantation Vields With and Without Thinning

Management Strategy Mean Annual Increment Kleora Baen(m3/ha/yrl (ft3/ac/yr) (m3/ha/yr) (ft3/ac/yr)

Without thinning Total volume over bark 6.2 - 9.7 88.6 - 138.7 1.2 - 4.3 17.2 - 61.5

Thinning in Years 6 Total volume over bark 13.4 191.6 - -

and 11 and final -felling in Year 14 Volume +10 cm diameter 8.9 127.3 - -

top inside bark

Thinning in Vears S. Total volume over bark 14.4 205.9 - -

11 and 14 and finalfelling in Vear 17 Volume +10 cm diameter 11.0 157.3 - -

top inside bark 4

Thinning in Vears 7 Total volume over bark - - 5.9 84.4

and 12 and finalfelling in Vear 17 Volume +10 cm diameter - - 2.8 40.0

top inside bark

Source: UNDP Forest Inventory Project preliminary results.

0 O

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT l'CR.1042-BD)

Estimated Yield at AoDraisal of 1980-81/1984-85 Plantations Under 17-Year Rotation 1/

Area Fuel and Pulpwood Timber TotalYear Date Operation ac ft3/ac Total ft3 ft3/ac Total ft3 ft3

9 1988-89 1st thinning 15.000 1,025 15.3'75.000 - - 15,375.00010 1989-90 1st thinning 15.000 1.025 15.375.000 - - 15.375.00011 1990-91 1st thinning 20,000 1.025 20.5030.000 - - 20.500,00012 1991-92 1st th

4nning 25.000 1.025 25.625,000 - - 25.625.000

13 1992-93 1st thinning 25.000 1.025 25.625.000 - - 25.625.00014 1993-94 - - - - _ 15 1994-95 - - _ _ _is 1995-96 - - - -17 1996-97 Felling 15,000 2,164 32,460,000 455 6.825,000 39.285.00018 1997-98 Felling 15.000 2.164 32.4S0,000 455 6.825.000 39.285.00019 1998-9w Felling 20,000 2,164 43.280,000 455 9.100.000 52,380.00020 1999-00 Felling 25,000 2,164 54,100,000 455 11.375.000 65,475,000 121 2000-01 Felling 25,000 2.164 54.100,000 455 11.375.000 65.475.000 &

Total 318,900,000 45,500,000 364,400,000

1/ Yields of Keora and Baen were assumed the same for purposes of this table(Appraisal Report. Annex 1. Table 9).

II

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Estimated Vield at Project Completion of 1980-81/1984-85Keora Plantations Under 17-Vear Rotation

FD Area 1/ Fuel and Pulpwood 2/ Roundwood 3/Vear Date Operation ac ft3/ac Total ft3 ft3/ac Total ft3

6 19S5-86 1st thinning 12,000 104.3 1.251.600 70.1 841.2007 1986-87 1st thinning 12,000 104.3 1,251,600 70.1 841,2008 1987-88 Ist thinning 16,000 104.3 1.668,800 70.1 1.121,6009 1988-89 1st thinning 20.000 104.3 2.086,000 70.1 1,402,00010 1989-90 1st thinning 20,000 104.3 2,086.000 70.1 1,402.00011 1990-91 2nd thinning 12.000 157.3 1.887.600 184.4 2,212.80012 1991-92 2nd thinning 12,000 157.3 1,887.600 184.4 2,212.80013 1992-93 2nd thinning 16,000 157.3 2,516,800 184.4 2,950,40014 1993-94 2nd thinning 20.000 157.3 3,146.000 184.4 3,688.000

3rd thinning 12.000 218.8 2.6.5,600 351.7 4.220,40015 1994-95 2nd thinning 20.000 157.3 3,146,000 184.4 3,688,000

3rd thinning 12,000 218.8 2.6,5,600 351.7 4,220,40016 1995-96 3rd thinning 16,000 218.8 3,500,800 351.7 5,627,20017 1996-97 3rd thinning 20,000 218.8 4.376,000 351.7 7.034,000

Felling 12,000 346.0 4,1E.2,000 2,064.6 24,775,20018 1997-98 3rd thinning 20,000 218.8 4.376,000 351.7 7,034,000

Felling 12,000 346.0 4,t,2,000 2,064.6 24,775,20019 1998-99 Felling 16,000 346.0 5,51I6,000 2,064.6 33,033,60020 1999-00 Felling 20,000 346.0 6.920,000 2,064.6 41.292,00021 2000-01 Felling 20,000 346.0 6,920,000 2,064.6 41,292,000

Total yield at FD area estimates 66,1 2,000 213,664,000

Total yield at SPARRSO area estimates (75%) 49,5EI4.000 160,248,000

1/ Assuming 80% area planted to Keora.2/ Total volume over bark less volume +10 cm top inside bark.3/ Volume +10 cm top inside bark.

0 |

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Estimated Yield at Project Completion of 1980-81/1984-85Baen Plantations Under 17-Vear Rotation

FD Area 1/ Fuel and Pulpwood 2/ Roundwood 3/Year Date Operation ac ft3/ac Total ft3 ft3/ac Total ft3

7 1986-87 1st thinning 3,000 30.0 90,000 5.7 17,1008 1987-88 1st thinning 3,000 30.0 90,000 5.7 17,1009 1988-89 1st thinning 4.000 30.0 120,000 5.7 22.80010 1989-90 1st thinning 5.000 30.0 150,000 5.7 28,50011 1990-91 1st thinning S,000 30.0 150,000 5.7 28,50012 1991-92 2nd thinning 3,000 78.6 235.800 31.5 94.50013 1992-93 2nd thinning 3,000 78.6 235.800 31.5 94,50014 1993-94 2nd thinning 4,000 78.6 314,400 31.5 126,00015 1994-95 2nd thinning 5,000 78.6 393,000 31.5 157,50016 1995-96 2nd thinning 5,000 78.6 393.000 31.5 157.500 117 1996-97 Felling 3,000 660.5 1,981,500 632.0 1,896,000 V18 1997-98 Felling 3,000 660.5 1.981,500 632.0 1,896,000 n19 1998-99 Felling 4,000 660.5 2.642,000 632.0 2,528,00020 1999-00 Felling 5,000 660.5 3,302,500 632.0 3,160,00021 2000-01 Felling 5,000 660.5 3,302,500 632.0 3,160,000

Total yield at FD area estimates 15,382,000 13,384,000Total yield at SPARRSO area estimates (75%) 11.536,500 10,038,000

1/ Assuming 20% area planted to Baen.2/ Total volume over bark less volume +10 cm top inside bark.3/ Volume +10 cm top inside bark.

I13

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CfM.1042-80)

Estimated Output of Marketable FueIwood. floles and Sawloesfrom Project Plantations bv Type of Species 1/

Keora BaenMarketable 2/ Mnrketable 2/

Vear Date Fuelwood Poles 3/ Sawlogs 3/ Fuelwood Poles 3/ Sawlogs 3/

6 1985-86 187,740 841,200 - - -7 1986-87 187,740 841,200 - 13.500 17,100 -8 1987-88 333,760 1,121,600 - 13,500 17,100 -9 1988-89 417,200 1,402,000 - 24,000 22.800 -10 1989-90 521,500 1,261.800 140,200 30,000 25.650 2.85011 1990-91 471,900 1,991,520 221,280 37,500 25.650 2.85012 1991-92 566,280 1,991.520 221,280 58,950 85,050 9.45013 1992-93 755,040 2,655.360 295.040 70.740 85,050 9.45014 1993-94 2,020.060 6,326,720 1.581,680 94,320 100,800 25.20015 1994-95 2,020,060 6,326,720 1,581,680 137,550 126,000 31,50016 1995-96 1,400,320 4,501,760 1,125.440 137,550 126,000 31,500 117 1996-97 3,411,200 25,447,360 6,361,840 792,600 1,516,809 379,200 P18 1997-98 3,837.600 22,266,440 9,542,760 792,600 1.327,200 568,80019 1998-99 2,491,200 23.123.520 9,910,080 1,188,900 1,769,600 758.400 120 1999-00 3,460,000 28,904.400 12,387.600 1,486,125 2,212,000 948,00021 2000-01 3,460,000 28,904.400 12,387,600 1,651,250 2,212,000 948,000

Total 25,541,600 157,907,520 55,756,480 5,529.085 9,668,800 3,715,000

1/ Assumes 80% Keora, 20% Baen; accepts FD plantation area lata; makes no allowance for wastage.

2/ Assumes 100% fuel and pulpwood yield assigned to fuel, and tCat marketable fuelwood increasesas proportion of total fuelwood and pulpwood (Annex 2, Tables 12 and 13 from 15% in Yr 6-7to 20% in Yr 8-9, 25% in Yr 10-11. 30% in Yr 12-13, 35% in Yr 14-15, 40% in Yr 16-17, 45% inYr 18-19, and 50% in Yr 20-21.

3/ Assumes poles comprise 100% of roundwood production (Annex 2, Tables 12 and 13) in Yr 6-9,90% in Yr 10-13, 80% in Yr 14-17, and 70% in Yr 18-21, and that the remainder of roundwoodproduction is used as sawlogs. lb

- 52 -

ANNEX 2Table 15

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Summary of Total Estimated Output of Marketable Fuelwood, Polesand Sawlogs from Project Plantations 1/

MarketableYear Date Fuelwood Poles Sawlogs

________ -- (ft3)…

6 1985-86 187,740 841,200 -7 1986-87 201,240 858,300 -8 1987-88 347,260 1,138,700 -9 1988-89 441,200 1,424,800 -10 1989-90 551,500 1,287,450 143,05011 1990-91 509,400 2,017,170 224,13012 1991-92 625,230 2,076,570 230,74013 1992-93 R2517RO 2.740.410 304,49014 1993-94 2,114,380 6,427,520 1,606,88015 1994-95 2,157,610 6,452,720 1,613,18016 1995-96 1,537,870 4,627,760 1,156,84017 1996-97 4,203,800 26,964,160 6,741,04018 1997-98 4,630,200 23,593,640 10,111,56019 1998-99 3,680,100 24,893,120 10,668,48020 1999-00 4,946,125 31,116,400 13,335,60021 2000-01 5,111,250 31,116,400 13,335,600

Total 32,070,685 167,576,320 59,471,680

1/ Assumptions as in Annex 2, Table 14.

- 53 -

ANNEX 2Table 16

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Plantation Area Lost by Natural Calamities

Year Division

Chittagong Noakhali Barisal Patuakhali Total-------------------------(ac)----- --

1976-77 10 - - - 101977-78 95 - - - 951978-79 235 - - - 2351979-80 137 - - - 1371980-81 102 _ 255 - 3571981-82 213 - 638 - 9511982-83 - - 175 - 1751983-84 - -1984-85 - - - - -1985-86 1,890 3,467 3,125 3,286 11,767

Source: Conservator of Forests, Plantation Circle, Khulna.

- 54 -

ANNEX 2Table 17

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

List of Major Equipment: Appraisal Estimates and Actual Procurement

SI. No. Items of Work Appraisal Actual

(Nos.) (Nos.)

1 Launch 4 22 Transport vessel 1 13 Motor boat/fibreglass reinforced plastic 25 214 Powered boats - 175 Country boats - Category I (45 ft) 20 46 Country boats - Category II (40 ft) 30 147 Country boats - Category III (36 ft) 20 258 Fibreglass boat - 39 Dinghi boat 310 Speedboat engine 511 Jeep 6 612 Minibus - 213 Motorcycle 8 1214 Bicycle 56 5715 Wireless sets 21 2116 Trailer 1 1

Source: Forestry Department, Plantation Circle, Khulna.

- 55 -

ANNEX 3Table 1

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Economic Price of Fuelwood

1995 price of petroleum average OPEC price in 19.701986 US$ per barrel 1/

Freight, insurance, processing and other local 9.90costs at 50% of f.o.b. price

Price in Bangladesh (US$ per barrel) 29.60

Price of kerosene per barrel (conversion factor 1.25) 37.00

Price of kerosene per litre (US$) 2/ 0.21

Price of kerosene per litre in Tk 6.90

Market price of kerosene 7.42

Conversion factor for kerosene (6.9 divided 7.42) 0.92

Assume fuelwood substitutes for 80% kerosene and201 other domestic source of energy; weightedconversion factor = 0.89 3/

Market price of fuelwood (Tk) 5.00

Adjusted by weighted conversion factor 4.45

1/ Based on World Bank forecasts for 1995 in 1985 prices and expressedin 1986 prices using the Manufacturing Unit Value.

2/ 1 barrel = 170 litres.

3/ Weighted conversion factor (0.92 x 0.8) + (0.83 + 0.2).

- 56 -

ANNEX 3Table 2

BANGLADESH

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-BD)

Economic Price of Sawlogs

USS m3 Tk/ft3

Wholesale price of logs, Chittagong 163in 1986 prices 1/

Less quality adjustment (33%) 54

Wholesale price of Keora/Baen logs 109

Wholesale price in Tk 2/ 101

Handling and transport cost to project area 35

Extraction costs 25

Economic price of sawlogs 41

1/ Based on World Bank forecast for 1995 in 1985 constant prices forwholesale price of lauan logs in Japan, used as an indicator pricefor Asia. Prices have been expressed in 1986 terms using themanufacturing unit value.

2/ Exchange rate Tk 33 = US$1.0 and 0.028 ft 3 = 1 m3.

BANGLADESh

MANGROVE AFFORESTATION PROJECT (CR.1042-8O)

Economic Analysis (Tk '000)

Vear 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

COSTS:Investment Coats - 23.511 59.760 73.408 52.152 45,798 4.498 - - -

Plant,tion Mngmt.Coe;a 1/ - - - - - 10.000 10.000 10,000 10,000 10,000

Administrationand Overheads 2/ - - - - - - 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000

Sub-total Costs - 23.511 59.760 73.408 52,152 45.698 34.498 30.000 30,000 30.000 30.

BENEFITS:Fuelwood - - - - - - 835 896 1,545 1.963 2.454

Pulses - - - - - - 14,302 14,591 19,358 24.222 21,887

Sawlogs - - - - - - - - - - 5.865

Sub-total Benefits - - - - - - 15,137 15,487 20,903 26,185 30,20

NET BENEFITS - -23.511 -59.760 -73.408 -52.152 -45,798 -19.361 -14.513 -9.097 -3.815 206

Year 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

COSTS:Investment Costs - - - - - - - - - -- v

Plantation Mngmt.Costs I/ 10.000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10.000 10.000 10.000 10.000 10.000 10.000 10.000

Administrationand Overheads 2/ 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20.000 20,000 20.000 20.000

Sub-total Costs 30,000 30.000 30,000 30.000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30.000

BENEFITS:Fuelwood 2,267 2,782 3.675 9.409 9.601 6,844 18,707 20.604 26.376 22,010 22.745

Pulses 34,292 35,302 46.587 109.268 109.696 78.672 458.391 401,092 423.183 528,978 528.978

Sawlogs 9.189 9.460 12.484 65.882 66.140 47.434 276.383 414.574 437.408 546.760 546.760

Sub-total Benefits 45.746 47,544 62.746 184,559 185.436 132,950 753,481 836.270 876,967 1,097,748 1.

NET BENEFITS 15,746 17,544 32,746 154,559 155,437 102,950 723,481 806.270 846.967 1,067.748 1,068,483

ERR = 20.7%

il On the average Tk 100 per acre per year. after adjusment by SCF of 0.83. Costs for the first five years are

included with investment costs. cr

2/ Staff salaries, allowances and maintenance and repairs amounted to Tk 190 per acre in 1984/85. Although costs FM

would be reduced during the plantation maintenance perid, Tk 200 per acre (after adjustment by the SCF of 0.83)

has been allowed to take into account replacement of equipment. Costs for the first five years are included

with investment costs.

- 59 - ATTAMID I

CONENTS FROM THE BORROWER

BANGLADESH: SPACE RESEARCH 31331tAND REMOTE SENSING OR'3ANIZATION (SPARRSO) 31"01

:"MOHAKASI bIGGYAIbtA9SAN 327013

' . P. o0.Wg. 629.

Ref.: W/^A.e/pt.h /8V/ B0ank

Dv. luato DemalDeem

subsl CbAnt an srj-tPtmw Ui oot0

Opeatin S.2uat@a apesetio "o (rdt144X NEW ALte MmR D|tto*Dt,.~

With Welundl oyourttr se - - . .

Whigon D.¢. 20433.

subs Cmente en ProJe.ct Perfauao Audit Report on.Uagrv Affoweetati.a ProSoot (Credi 1042 - ).

With u.f rzeo* to y7our letter 5. 11L1 ated 21 Oat. i988 on theaboveeubjeot 3PARUO's cements we given below

1) In pars 27 of PPAM it is sid that the 1810,000 scale plantation weamaps ha" been completed from 1*30,000 goal B & W aerial photographs

of 1981. But in SPARS report It is mentioned that thde final planta-tion maps of 1s10000 scale havo been copiled from 1sO,OOO &*Al 3Caerial photographs of 1983/84. Barlier an attempt was mae to producefin* plantation maps frc. I s30,000 soae B & W aerial photograph of1981 but with lttle succese. Because tonl sigatur of mangrove vege-tation and tidal flats looked ver Amilar whereas 3C photogaphs of1983/84 showed wide variation of colour tonae

2) So from the experience gaid during phase -1, it is suested that inphase - II monitoriag/aseeasmnt work, the provision for SRO aerialphotography should be included,

This is for your kind infouation and neoesary action.

(M.Ajl. Prsmnik)Chi (Acting)

Copy to

1. Additional Secretary-in-Charge, Forest Division,Minstry of Agriculture.

2. Chief Conservator of Forest. Forest DepartmontBEan Bhaban, Mobakhali, DhokA.

3. Conservator of Forest, Plantation Circle,Bans Bhaban, Mohakhali * DIwka.

MYAP SECTION

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