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World Bank
World Bank China TransportChina Day, SDN Forum, Washington, D.C.
January 26, 2010
World Bank
1. China Political Economic Context
2. World Bank Program Overview
3. Sub-Sector Scan
4. Challenges
World Bank
China Political Economic Context
World Bank
•Reform began
•Opening-up
•Rapid economic
growth in eastern
coastal areas
•Very small existing
transport system
•Capacity
constraints in
seaports and critical
inter-city links
•Ports
•Rail
•Highway
•Rail reform
•Port policy
•Highway and rail
comparative study
•Government
procurement and
contract management
Economy Sector Bank Operations
1979
China Political-Economic Context
World Bank
•Urban Land &
Housing Reform
•Tax Reform
(1994)
•Auto industrial
policy (1994)
•UT demand pattern
changed
•Framework for
resource
mobilization
established
•Traffic congestion
in mega cities
•Rapid expansion of
road & rail networks
in the late 1990s
•Rail
•Highway
•Inland Waterways
•Urban Transport
•Traffic management
techniques
•Motor vehicle
pollution control
•Anti-leaded gasoline
study
•Highway cost
recovery
Economy Sector Bank Operations
1990’s
China Political-Economic Context
World Bank
•WTO
•Western Poverty
Reduction Strategy
•PT Priority Policy
(2005)
•People centered
development
•Harmonized
society
•Green GDP
•Stimulus Package
(2009)
•Natural disasters
•Exploding demand
•Network expansion
•Paradigm shift
•Rural road
development
•Focus on
externalities
•Energy efficiency
•Infrastructure
investment priority
•DRM policies
•High Speed Railway
•Expressways
•Expanding Urban
Transport Operations
•Rural road support
•Land use
•Green Transport
•Railway expansion
•WERP and DRM
analytical work
Economy Sector Bank Operations
2000’s
China Political-Economic Context
World Bank
World Bank Program Overview
World Bank
Increase efficiency: energy, finance, land, services
Evolution of China Transport
Broaden objectives: social, environmental and land use externalities; passenger travel and cities; regional integration; promote lagging region economic development
Provide capacity: facilitate economic growth, emphasize freight
World Bank
Transport Lending Composition
World Bank
Transport Lending Composition
# ProjectsTotal Value
$Billions
Highways 36 7.3
Railways 14 3.6
Ports & Inland Waterways 14 1.5
Urban Transport 11 1.5
Total 75 13.9
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• Roads and Highways
• Railways
• Inland Waterways
• Urban Transport
Sub-Sector Scans
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Roads and Highways
Building a Road System
• Nearly tripling length of paved roads from 1985 to now
• Establishing a trunk highway system from zero in 1988 to about 65,000 kms by the end of 2009
• Providing the foundation for spreading economic growth nationally
• Establishment of a robust tolling system
• Introduction and institutionalizing of international construction supervision practices
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Roads and Highways
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Total National Trunk Highway System (kms)
World Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8
Tota
l In
vestm
ent $U
S b
illio
n
Period From Start of Construction
USA
Japan
China
Roads and HighwaysExpressway investment rates - USA, Japan, China
World Bank
Roads and Highways
Improving delivery
• Focus on road safety
• Enhancing environmental practices
• Strengthening planning processes
• Integration between classes of roads and modes of transport
• HIV/AIDS considerations
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Roads and HighwaysEnvironmental protection approach – from repair to mitigation
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Roads and Highways
Current initiatives
• Completion of the trunk highway system• Continuation of provincial highway system• Introduction of fuel tax and elimination of
some fees• Reorganization of the Ministry of
Transport• Strengthening planning mechanisms
World Bank
Roads and Highways
Challenges
• Energy efficiency and climate change• Provision for maintenance funding• Efficient utilization of toll revenues• Financing strains• Overcapacity concerns
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Henan
Jiangxi
AnhuiHunan
Hubei
Yunnan
GuizhouChongqing
Sichuan
Guangxi
Qinghai
Xinjiang
TibetNingxia
Inner
Mongolia
Gansu
Shaanxi
Shanxi
Hebei
Tianjing
Beijing
Jilin
Heilongjiang
Liaoning
Shandong
Hainan
Zhejiang
Jiangsu
Shanghai
Fujian
Guangdong
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800
2.5% of Asset Value (US$ m)
Ro
ad
Ma
inte
na
nc
e F
ee
s (
US
$ m
)
1.5% of Road
Asset Value
2.5% of Road
Asset Value
Adequate
Funding
Inadequate
Funding
Marginal to
Inadequate
Funding
Roads and Highways
Availability of Maintenance Funds by Province
World Bank
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
To
ll fo
r 1
60
0 k
m a
s %
GD
P p
er
pers
on
Arg
entin
a
Ma
laysia
Co
lom
bia
Me
xic
o
Ch
ina
US
A
Ita
ly
Po
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Canada
Au
str
alia
Fra
nce
Ja
pa
n
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
To
ll in
$U
S/k
m/c
ar
Arg
entin
a
Ma
laysia
Co
lom
bia
Ch
ina
Me
xic
o
Po
rtu
ga
l
US
A
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Fra
nce
Au
str
alia
Ca
na
da
Ja
pa
n
International toll rates Affordability of tolls
Roads and Highways
Expressway tolling
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Railways
Providing Capacity
• Speed raising• Network improvements• Electrification program• Reform process• Social benefit reinforced
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RailwaysNetwork length (000 km) 2007
0 50 100 150 200 250
Passenger-km (billion) 2005
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Traffic units /route-km (millions 2007)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EU
Japan
India
US
Russia
China
EU
Japan
India
US
Russia
China
Net tonne-km (billion) 2005
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
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Railways
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Wo
rkfo
rce
(E
OY
) (0
00
)
Total CR Total rail Total RA
China Rail Workforce
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Railways
Step Change
• Dedicated passenger high speed rail system
• Freight improvements
• Regional railways• Continued reform• Technological advances
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The MLTDP planned network of high-speed
dedicated passenger lines in 2020.
Railways
World Bank
Bohai Intercity System
Yangtze Delta Intercity System
Pearl Delta Intercity System
The three MLTDP regional intercity
systems to be built
Railways
World Bank
Future of China
Rail
Economic and trade growth
Market evolution and demands
National Transport
Strategy and Funding
Industry structure and regulatory
framework
Railway management competence and actions
Railways
Five main external factors shaping China
Rail
World Bank
How to deliver long-term infrastructure
improvements – the biggest railway
development program in the world since C19th
How the industry can adapt to become more
responsive to the needs of customers in
China’s socialist market economy.
Key
challenges
for WB
engagement
Railways
China Rail and its policy-makers face two enormous challenges
World Bank
Railways
Other challenges emerging
• Economic stimulus emphasis• Disaster response • Financing• Pricing• National investment• Institutional integration• Planning improvements• Energy efficiency improvements• Carbon emission reduction
World Bank
Railways
Twin-track approach, separating project delivery
from policy dialogue. Recent and continuing
analytical work includes:
New traffic management information systems
Non-traditional financing sources
Handling multiple operators
Social costs of railways and other modes
A new integrated transport promotion law
Railway infrastructure investment policies in other countries
Market-based railway pricing policies and structures
World Bank
Inland Waterways
The other transport
• Benefits from long term planning• World’s largest inland waterway transport
network in length and freight tonnage• Bank finances capacity projects: multi-
purpose facilities and channel improvements
World Bank
World Bank
50
100
0
125
0
115
0
120
0
110
0
105
0
950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
130
0
410
450
330
362
240
218
196 181
170 (final)
157 (earlier)
88
78
6457
5142
36.5
Hu
an
gjin
Go
rge
Sh
iqu
an
Xi R
ive
r
An
ka
ng
Xu
nya
ng
Sh
u R
ive
r
Jia
he
Riv
er
Gu
sh
an
Da
njia
ngko
u
Wangfu
zh
ou
Xin
ji
Nia
np
anshan
Ya
ko
u
Hu
ajia
wa
n
Xin
glo
ng
Distance from Yangtze River (Wuhan) (km)
Wa
ter
Leve
l
(m)
Future Complex
Legend
IWW5
Cuijiaying
Hubei
ProvinceShaanxi Province
Existing Complex
World Bank
World Bank
Inland Waterways
Sustainable transport
• Higher energy efficiency• Lower greenhouse gas
emissions• Minimizes loss of
agricultural land• Reduces congestion• Safer
…. but requires navigable river to realize benefits and is slower.
World Bank
Inland Waterways
Emissions /ton-mile
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VehicleVessel
DescriptionLength (Meters)
Capacity (Tonnes)
Barge tow 15-barge tow
(5X3)
327 23,800
Railway train
unit
108 cars, 3
locomotives
1,845 10,800
Road truck Tractor plus
16.2m trailer
21.3 23
Unit Cargo Comparisons
Mode Tonne-kms/litre
Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) 222
Railway freight 159
Road haulage 60
Fuel Efficiency Comparisons
Inland Waterways
World Bank
Spills of Hazardous Materials Comparison
Deaths and Injuries Comparisons
Inland Waterways
Mode Deaths
/ billion tonne-km
Injuries
/ billion tonne-km
IWT 0.019 0.031
Railway freight 0.445 3.982
Road haulage 2.980 67.84
Mode Liters of Spills/ mil. tonne-km
IWT 9.3
Railway freight 10.0
Road haulage 15.7
World Bank
Inland WaterwaysChallenges
1. Admin. planning, and management2. Financing needed3. Improved operations4. Modernize information technology5. Maintain central coordinative role6. Further port reform including encouraging private
investment7. Improve interface with seaports8. Improve social safeguards9. Maintain open barge market10. Continue to improve energy efficiency11. Mitigate negative impacts on small
barge-owners
World Bank
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
vessels DWT
Transformation of SP Freight Fleet, 2000-2006
Inland Waterways
World Bank
Inland Waterways
Future focus
• Modal integration• Carbon finance• Institutional
improvements
Xiangfan, Hubei Province
Bank financed IWW5
World Bank
Predominately non-motorized
Per
cent
Urban Transport
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cha
ngzh
i
Wei
hai
Jiao
zuo
Luoy
ang
Uru
mqi
Nan
chan
gXia
n
Gua
ngzh
ou
Cho
ngqing
NMT Public Transport Motorcycles Taxis Passenger cars Other trips
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Urban Transport
Rising incomes and urbanization leading to unprecedented motorization
World Bank44
(Liaoning Anhui)
World Bank
Urban Transport
Road infrastructure plus
• Quality and timely construction
• Road network management
• Bus system improvement
• Planning, design, construction supervision, management, operations, reform
Shanghai
World Bank
Urban Transport
Public Transport plus
• Integrated corridor improvement
• Mass transit• Broaden capacity building
agenda
World Bank
Urban TransportSocial equity and environmental co-benefits
• Air quality and environmental management
• Improving resettlement policy and practice
• Integrated traffic safety approaches
• Public participation
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Urban Transport
Current initiatives
• Defining the role of national government• Public transport planning and policy• Urban form and transport
Jobs accessed
in radius around
CBD
World Bank
19:00
JOBS
This Minute:
12,000Cumulative:
127,300
COMMERCIAL SPACE
(square meters)
This Minute:
29,600Cumulative:
409,000
N
Beijing - GuoMao
World Bank
12:00Coventry Street
JOBS
This Minute:
13,100
Cumulative:
146,200
COMMERCIAL SPACE
(square meters)
This Minute:
364,300
Cumulative:
4,075,000
N
World Bank
Beijing
Guangzhou
Shanghai
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Municipal GDP/capita (Yuan/yr)
Urb
an
Tra
nsp
ort
CO
2 p
er
cap
ita (
kg
/pers
on
/yr)
1993, 3 cities
2002, 17 cities
2006, 17 cities
Poly. (Guangzhou)
Poly. (Beijing)
Poly. (Shanghai)
Urban Transport
Current initiatives
• Integrating carbon into decision making• Vehicles and fuel
Urban transport
and GDP /
Potential carbon
World Bank
Future Challenges
World Bank
Challenges
Themes
• Climate change• Finance and capital
planning• Energy intensity• Modal integration• Urbanization and
motorization• Commercialization of
services• Asset management and
maintenance• Social equity• Safety
Response
• Green vehicles• PPP• Comprehensive transport law• Municipal finance• Performance based contracts• Demand management• Metropolitan and regional
integration• Inclusive transport and
protection for vulnerable groups
• Compact public transport oriented cities
• Traffic and road safety
World Bank
The value we bring
• Shaping the vision
• Learning by doing
• Access to international practice
…..contribution vs. attribution
World Bank
Xie Xie (Thank You)
WB China Transport Team
Beijing• John Scales• Shomik Mehndiratta• Zhi Liu• Wenlai Zhang• Xiaoke Zhai• Luquan Tian• Xuan Peng• Yunqing Tian• Lei Wu
Washington• Imogene Jensen – Sector Leader• Ben Gericke• Fei Deng• Rein Westra• Mitsuyoshi Asada• Ke Fang• Tess Ortega• Malou Juico• Emmanuel Py• Chris De Serio• Sivalingam Milton• Peng Wang