Global challenges we face:Global warming

Fuel prices rising – oil running out

Food prices risingPreventing damage of natural hazards

War + povertyDiseases

Energy – conserving fossil fuels/resources – alternative energy

Credit crunchPopulation increase/decrease

Natural Hazard:

A naturally occurring process or event that has the potential to cause loss of life or property

Without people = natural eventInteraction of people = hazard

Disaster:

The realisation of a hazard, although there is not universally agreed definition of the scale on which loss has to occur in order to qualify as a disaster (Smith 1996)

Risk:

The exposure of people to a hazardous event that may present a potential threat to people or their possessions, including buildings and structures

Vulnerability:

Is to be susceptible to physical or emotional injury or attack

Hydro-meteorological Hazard:

• Natural processes of atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic nature

• May cause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation

• Cyclones, droughts, floods, thunderstorms

Geophysical Hazards:

• Natural hazards where the main causal agent is climatic and meteorological

• Floods, hurricanes, drought• Natural hazards where the main causal agent is geological or

geomorphological• Landslides, tsunamis, volcanoes, earthquakes• DO NOT include biological hazards e.g. fungal diseases,

poisonous plants, viral diseases, infestations, locusts

Chronic Hazard:

• Long-term, persistent hazard

• El Niño, global warmingHazard = potential to cause harmRisk = likelihood to cause harm

Risk = Hazard x VulnerabilityCapacity

For example:

Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans

Hazard = hurricane and storm surgesVulnerability = high = live in flood plain, below sea levelCapacity = low = unprepared

Hurricane/storm surges x high = high riskLow

This shows that they were unprepared and in future they are preparing so their risk will decrease

Cyclone in Burma

Cyclone x high = high riskLow

Capacity = low = refused people in, no one to help

They were unprepared; they did not have the management to protect them (not enough money to do this)

Haiti

Vulnerability =

Physical Earthquake zone. Tectonically young and unstable

Social Young population. Lack of experienceEconomic Low income. Lack of insurance and social security

safety net. Impoverished government ($1.3 billion debt)

Political Years of corruption and mismanagement under the Duvalier regimes

Environmental Deforestation destabilising soils. Increasing landslide risk

Hazard x high = high risk

Low

Frequency:

How often an event of a certain size (magnitude) occurs

Magnitude:

The size of an event e.g. size of an earthquake on the Richter scale or the force of a gale on the Beaufort scale

Natural causes of climate change:

• Sunspots• Arrangements of continents• Natural catastrophes – meteorites and volcanoes• Earth’s orbit (Milankovitch Cycle)

Eccentricity Tilt Wobble

• Changes in ocean currents

El Niño

• During El Niño winds across the Pacific change direction and blow from west to east

• Occurs every 3-7 years• Pacific ocean between Australia (west) and South America

(east)

Conditions of a Normal Year:

• Trade winds move warm water to the western Pacific• Cold water wells up along the west coast of South America

(near Peru)• Upwelling important for fish stocks in Peru

Conditions of an El Niño Year:

• Air pressure over the west coast of South America becomes low

• Air pressure over the east coast of Australia becomes high• The normal east to west trade winds over Pacific are disrupted

and warm water ‘sloshes’ eastwards• No Upwelling on South American coast

Conditions of a La Niña Year: - extreme cold conditions

• Warm water goes to the west• High pressure over west coast of South America• Low pressure over east coast of Australia• As warm water is pushed westwards sea levels rise by up to

1m around Indonesia and Philippines• Strong uplift of air leads to heavy rain

El Niño causes:

• Reduced hurricane activity in Atlantic• Drought in Brazil• Hotter summers in Europe• Floods in Kenya and Bangladesh• Fires in Indonesia• Drought fires in Australia

ENSO – El Niño Southern Oscillation:

Term used to describe the full range of events triggered by the seesaw motion of atmospheric pressure over the Pacific

Tele-connections:

Knock n effects of El Niño worldwide

Thermo cline:

Area where cold water meets warm water

Asian Tsunami 2004

When: 26th December 2004 (Boxing Day)

Where: Mainly Indonesia – Asia

Causes:• Earthquake that was 9.0-9.3 on Richter scale. 100x

stronger than one in Kobe in 1995• Thrust heaved Indian Ocean floor towards Indonesia by

about 15m – sent out shockwaves

Impacts:• 300,000 people dead and missing• Waves were nearly 17m high – Banda Aceh and Sri Lanka• Homes, crops, fishing boats destroyed – Sri Lanka• 400,000 people lost their jobs – Sri Lanka• 20/199 inhabited islands destroyed - Maldives• Flooding was extensive – Maldives• Tourist resorts damaged – bad for economy – Maldives• Homes and boats destroyed – Somalia (Africa)• Freshwater wells contaminated – Somalia (Africa)• Jetties destroyed – India• 1700 foreigners killed form 36 countries – Thailand

Response:• Had warnings therefore evacuated – Kenya• Sea wall protected ½ of Male (capital city) – Maldives

Bushfires

Most frequent causes are:• Carelessness – outdoor BBQs

- cigarette end• Lightning strikes

How fires spread:1. Crown fire – where wind spreads fire through the tops of the

trees2. Ground fire – where dead leaves, twigs and small shrubs catch

fire3. Spot fires – where embers of fire fall to the ground

How have bushfire deaths been reduced?• Controlled burning – local councils regularly burn leaf litter to

reduce the fuel for bushfires- done every year- Fire officers inspect properties in bush land

areas to assess the risk and advise residents about burning

• Education programmes – educated about what to do in a bushfire

- Install protective measures for themselves- e.g. sprinkler system

Asthenosphere:

• A semi-molten zone of rock underlying the earth’s crust

Lithosphere:

• The crust of the earth, around 80-90km thick

Hotspot:

• A localised area of the earth’s crust with an unusually high temperature

Albedo Effect:

• White surfaces/concrete that reflects the sun

Tipping Point:

• Refers to a point beyond which the Earth cannot recover from the effects of carbon emission, even with drastic action

• Point of no return, irreversible

Mitigation:

• Trying to manage something• In relation to GW means reducing the output of GHG and

increasing the size of GHG sinks (afforestation)

Adaptation:

• Changing our lifestyle to cope with a new environment rather than trying to stop climate change

Carbon Offsetting• You produce lots of emissions but give back to the

environment, e.g. planting trees etc.

Shell

• Pumps waste CO2 from their oil refinery (in Botlek, the Netherlands) into 500 greenhouses which grow fruit and veg

• Mitigation – managing CO2 emissions• It has worked because it avoids annual emissions of 170000

tonnes of CO2

Coldplay

• Mitigation – managing their CO2 emissions by carbon offsetting

• They planted 10,000 mango trees in Karnataha, India offsetting carbon emissions from the production of their album ‘A Rush of Blood to the Head’

Providing fruit for trade They will soak up CO2

• They supported a forest in Chiapas, Mexico offsetting carbon emissions from the production of their album ‘X & Y’

• Joined up with Future Forests to make these albums carbon neutral

Alternative Energy In Brazil

• Bunge, a US company in Brazil, builds lined, enclosed pools to collect the waster and capture the methane (from the waste of the pigs). The farmers use this to generate electricity

• Mitigation – managing methane emissions• The company gets a carbon credit to sell on the carbon

market• Farmer gets 25% of earnings• Problems – could be expensive to fit the pools, need the space

London’s Congestion Charge

• Drivers charged £8 a day to drive in the Central London Congestion Zone

• A new proposal is to charge £25 for larger vehicles, including four wheel drives (4x4s and Land Rovers)

• Mitigation – managing carbon emissions• More people are using public transport, traffic levels down by

15% and congestion by 30% - reduction in nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions in the zone

• Problems – overcrowding on buses and trains

Combined Heat and Power in Copenhagen

• Supplies 97% of the city with clean, reliable and affordable heating, and 15% of Denmark’s heating needs

• Partnership between local councils and energy companies• It uses a combination of:

o Waste heat from electricity productiono Surplus heat from waste incinerationo Geothermal energyo Bio-fuels (wood pellets and straw)o Small amounts of coal, oil and natural

gas• Adaptation – changing their source of heat/their lives• From 1984-2005 annual heating bills were 1400 euros less

than if oil had been used• From 1995-2000 annual CO2 emissions were cut by 1 million

tonnes – companies pay less tax if they use CHP (tax incentives) – clean, cheap, efficient

• Problems – it still uses non-renewable resources (coal, oil, natural gas)

The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)

• In 2007 the EU set targets for 2020 to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% of the levels they were in 1900

• Set up carbon offsetting• Set targets for every country• Gave 14000 factories/power plants in Europe’s ‘dirtiest’

industries permits (electricity, oil, metals, building materials and paper) – credits – to emit certain amount of carbon

• The ETS aims to: Cut emissions by placing a limit on the total

amount emitted Get polluters to pay for damage they cause by

introducing carbon credits for the GHG they emit Create incentives for companies to invest in

cleaner technology

How effective is the ETS?• So far failed in its aims:

Manufacturing companies have been moving out of Europe – cheaper for them

Polluters pass the cost of the carbon credits onto their customers

• Mitigation – a management scheme to reduce companies emissions

Exchanging Carbon Credits:- If countries have more credit than they need, they can sell it to other countries/companies- If it is less they can buy credits from others to allow them to pollute above their limit

BedZED – an energy conservation project

• New housing development in Sutton, South London – built in 2004

• Attempts to be carbon neutral

• The homes use heat-efficient natural, recycled or reclaimed materials, which absorb heat during warm spells and release it when cooler

• It has its own CHP plant, run on waste wood from tree surgery that would normally become landfill

• CHP systems provide hot water, distributed via insulated plants

• Problems: The BedZED CHP system failed in 2005 after months

of unreliability The reed beds filtering waste water for use in toilets

and gardens were out of operation for 7 months Houses are not cheap and new technology is

expensive Carbon neutrality is difficult to achieve

• Mitigation – a management scheme to try and reduce emissions

• Houses in demand – valued at 15% above local house prices• Residents emit 40% less carbon than average UK households

Ways of conserving energy:• Photovoltaic cells – cut electricity bills• Solar panels• Wind turbines• Loft and wall insulation cut heat loss by 33%• Double glazing cut heat loss by 50%• Ground heat pump – using geothermal energy to warm

incoming water/air before it enters the house/heating system

• Low energy lighting and energy efficient appliances – also cuts back on household carbon emissions

Kyoto Protocol

• Negotiated by many countries in December 1997, came into force with Russia’s ratification in February 2005 – needed 55 countries to ratify and the total of the parties emissions had to be 55% of global production

• Agreement signed by 170 countries• 2 countries did not ratify (confirm) the agreement until

December 2007 – Australia and the USA• Australia = highest amount of CO2 emissions per person• USA = larger emitter of CO2 in total of any country• Committed to cut all greenhouse gas emissions• All countries assigned different targets• Iceland – permitted an increase – uses HEP – hardly produces

any emissions• India and China – do not have to reduce emissions at the

moment – they are seen as developing countries

Signing – symbolic, a token gesture of supportRatification – carries legal obligations, becomes a contractual arrangement