Assessing adaptation, mitigation and risk management options at multiple scales

Lini Wollenberg, Philip ThorntonCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Systems tools workshop, Wageningen, February 2013

• CCAFS background

• … at different spatial scales

• … at different temporal scales

• … in different domains (of knowledge,

modes of enquiry, …)

• Concluding remarks

Outline

1. Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.

2. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

The CCAFS Framework

Adapting Agriculture toClimate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk

3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis

and Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

… different spatial scales

What are the trade-offs and synergies between

benefits and costs (social, economic, nutritional,

environmental) at:

• Household, community levels and

• At national, regional, global levels?

Many examples: new technology production increases product prices decrease social benefits for urbanites individual producer disbenefits, so no adoption …

Global Scenarios

Regional Scenarios

Farmer/village perspectives

Action research

Participatory scenario building

Global visioning activities

Global impacts modelling

Regional impacts

modelling

Household & community

impacts modelling

Assessing different options at different scalesImportance of iteration; and which are robust?

… different temporal scales

Are there trade-offs between benefits and costs (social,

economic, environmental) between:

• Coping with disasters now (drought, flood)

• Managing seasonal risk

• Adapting to increasing decadal temperatures?

Many pathways to “maladaptation”: actions that increase GHG emissions; that disproportionately burden the most vulnerable; that have high opportunity costs; that reduce incentives to adapt; that limit choices available to future generations (Barnett & O’Neil, 2009)

Managing climate risk · 2

>> Indexed crop & livestock insurance

• Avoids cost of verifying losses

• Overcomes the problems of moral hazard

• Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks

• Impacts on longer-term local prices, local commodity supply, on the environment?

In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than

on observed losses.

Trade-offs, synergies?

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Farms of the future

Climate analogue tool to identify places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

• Sharing knowledge through cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

• Climate similarity mediated via socio-economic, politico-cultural similarities and differences

• Do longer-term adaptations make sense next season?

Trade-offs, synergies?

… different domains

• The need to find synergies between mitigation and

adaptation

• The need to balance indigenous knowledge /

experience with new science

• The need to balance technology and process (social

learning …)

Individual Network SystemFacilitating Interaction

“Search Conferences” (5) Role playing games (1, 3) Joint interactive use of a single influence model (3)

Collaborative learning exercise (9) Participatory techniques combined with social learning approaches (7) Facilitating public participation (7) Develop partnerships, engage in action research (10) Field visits, virtual role playing, project and policy simulation exercises (12)

Participatory techniques for mentoring farmers’ representatives (22) Coordination platforms, especially at regional level (18?)

Capturing Lessons

Framing/reframing exercise (14) Field visits (22)

Knowledge Manage-ment

Actors Platforms (3) Workshops for joint knowledge production (4) Card sorting techniques (3) Hexagon modeling (3)

Development of a knowledge network (12) ICT-tools (14) Collective perceptive maps (14)

Combining farmer-produced resource maps of catchment areas (16)

Simulation Agent based social simulation (3)Companion Modeling approach (1)

Future scenarios workshops (8)

Social learning tools and approaches

Harvey (2013)

Low emissions development· 3

>> Governing mitigation trade-offs in agriculture-forest landscapes

• Intensify agriculture to conserve tropical forests?

• Forest C and ES at expense of expansion in South, CO2 in North

• Intensification lowers GHG/kg, but increases inputs and pollutants

•

Trade-offs, Synergies?

Livelihoods

Mitigation and sustainability

Food Security

Test innovations in supply chain Footprint of outcomes and

efficiencies

Analytics

Emergent properties

Trade-offs

e.g. sustainability policies, development investments, agricultural credit,

certification, industry CSR initiatives, awareness campaigns

Rethinking agricultural efficiencies

Per ha, kg, person

UVM Gund Institute Initiative (Ricketts, Galford, Mendez, Farley ) with University of Michigan (Agrawal, Newton)

Strategic questions for mitigation1. How to avoid trade-offs: Low emissions

development • SAMPLES HH modeling (ICRAF-ILRI-IRRI)• IIASA- LED priorities• U. Michigan- jointness of outcomes

2. Land for food v. energy v. forests• Meeting energy needs: energy-food crop

intermodel comparison (PIK and ILRI)• Geography of adaptation: impacts of

elevation change by perennial crops (CIAT)

Strategic questions cont.

Concluding remarks

Priorities for attention• Develop systems approach to link TO analysis• Sustainable intensification efficiencies and sustainability

under climate change• More understanding of options and impacts from (1)

short-to long-term and (2) benefits and costs across social groups

Challenges• Costs of measuring multiple dimensions• Managing process for understanding and applying local

stakeholder values in specific places

lini.wollenberg@uvm.edup.thornton@cgiar.org

www.ccafs.cgiar.org