Workshop on the preparation of National Communications from non-Annex I Parties of the

UNFCCC

JULIA MARTINEZ

Director of Climate Change Research

General Directorate of Research on Urban, Regional and Global Pollution

INE-SEMARNAT

April 26-30, 2004

Manila, Philippines

Mexico and the UN Framework on Climate Change

Mexico signed the UNFCCC in 1992, and ratified it in 1993.

The Convention came into force for Mexico on March 21, 1994.

Mexico signed the Kyoto Protocol on June 9, 1998.

The Mexican Senate approved the Kyoto Protocol

on April 29, 2000.

Mexico’s National Communications

The First National Communication of Mexico was submitted to

the UNFCCC in 1997.

Funds from US Country Studies Program and UNEP/GEF

The Second National Communication of Mexico was submitted

to the UNFCCC in 2001. GHG Emission Inventory Update (1994-1998) Future Emission Scenarios Mitigation Policies

www.ine.gob.mx/ dgicurg/cclimatico/comnal.html

GHG Emissions Inventory Update1994-1998

In 1996, the equivalent CO2 emissions were 686,178 Gg, of which:

Carbon dioxide (CO2): 514,047 Gg (75%) Methane (CH4): 157,648 Gg (23%) Nitrogen oxides (N2O) 14,422 Gg (2%)

The CO2 emission from energy consumption in Gg

1990 2970101994 314352 1996 3147301998 350380 (18% more than in 1990)

Interactive data base at INE web site http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/inventario/index.html

year 1972 2000 2010 2020 2030

CO2 (Mt/year) 360 877 1,185 1,571 2,104

% Annual

Increment

3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0

year 1972 2000 2010 2020 2030

CO2 (Mt/year) 13,654 22,639 27,453 32,728 38,161

% Annual increment

1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8

Latin America

Global

CO2 Projections from fossil fuels

Source: A Practical Approach to Identifying Emission Reductions Opportunities. Summary Brochure, ARPEL-IPIECA-UNEP.2002.

Mexico’s CO2 emission growth scenarios with different GDPs

GDP Annual growth

(1990–2010)

2010

CO2 Million ton

Growth 1990–2010

(%)

Low (2.5%) 805.6 55%

Medium (4.5%) 878.9 69%

High (6.0%) 960.3 85%

Source: Sheinbaum C, Masera O. Mitigating carbon emissions while advancing national development priorities: the case of Mexico, climatic change (2000).

Mexico’s Energy and Forestry emissions forthe medium scenario (CO2 Million tons)

1990 1995 2000 2005   2010

Energy 292.1 333.4 397.9 546.3 726.0

Forestry 228.9 206.7 186.6 168.9 152.9

Total 520.0 540.1 584.5 715.2 878.9

Source: Sheinbaum C, Masera O. Mitigating carbon emissions while advancing national development priorities: the case of Mexico, climatic change (2000).

CO2 emissions related to energy consumption

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Mill

ion

tons

Agriculture

CommercialResidential

Self consumption

Electricity generation

Industrial

Transport

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

Source: Engineering Institute, National Autonomous University of Mexico, 2000

Option 2000 2005 2010

Combined cycle power plants 13.9 21.2 70

Efficient lighting in the residential sector 0.7 1.6 2.5

Efficient lighting in the commercial sector 0.5 0.8 1.2

Water pumping measures 1 1.1 1.2

Efficient industrial motors 0.2 0.6 0.9

Efficient industrial boilers 1 1.8 2.7

Transportation measures at MCMA 1.2 1.1 1.0

Industrial Cogeneration 0.4 17.9 35.4

Wind electricity generation 1 6.6 12.2

Subway at MCMA 0 2.0 4.0

TOTAL: ENERGY SECTOR 19.9 54.7 131.2

       

Forestry management (Template) 97 162 190.8

Forestry management (Tropical) 10.9 18.7 34.8

Restoration 16.4 29.7 31.4

Agroforestry measures 5.4 5.2 5.1

TOTAL: FORESTRY SECTOR 129.7 215.6 262.1

       

TOTAL 149.6 270.3 393.3

CO2 Emissions mitigation potential (million tons)

Source: Engineering Institute, National Autonomous University of Mexico,UNAM, 2000

• Studies carried out by the National Institute of Ecology & collaborative projects

Potential of the Scientific and TechnologyClimate Change Research in Mexico

Objectives: To obtain an inventory and evaluation of the research

carried out by national institutions on climate change To establish cooperation schemes between the research

centers and public institutions

The data base with the results can be consulted at the INE web site

http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/potencial.html

Study carried out by the “Secretaría de Investigación y Desarrollo” at UNAM

Co-control of Urban Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases in Mexico City (2002)

Objectives

To support the capacity in Mexico to analyze and develop policies addressing local air pollution and climate change in an integrated manner

To unify diverse studies of measures for the control of local air pollution and GHGs, creating a harmonized database of options.

To develop and apply quantitative methods of policy analysis, based on linear programming (LP) and goal programming (GP), to analyze minimum cost programs that achieve objectives for multiple pollutants:

as a tool that CAM use to support decision-making. to explore the relationships between controls of local

pollutants and GHGs.

The PROAIRE measures considered would reduce by 3.1% of projected CO2 emissions in 2010.

Through LP tool, we found that the emissions reductions of PROAIRE could be achieved at a 20% lower cost (West et al, 2002)

Support from USEPA, IES Program, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Conclusions:

http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/cocontrolenred.html

Co-benefit study (2003) Metodological framework

Control Costs

GHG Emissions

Analysis of Controls

Air Quality

Health Impacts

Valuation

Local Emissions

Environmental Concentrations

Cases ofMortality and Morbidity

Monetary Benefits

Benefit/GHG Cost/Benefit Net Benefits

1) To improve the economic and emissions (local and global) analysisof the co-control phase.

2) To estimate the local public health impacts and monetary benefits for a few specific control measures that would reduce GHG emissions in Mexico City

3) To develop a tool that summarizes the analysis that is useful to policymakers.

Goals of Co-benefit study:Goals of Co-benefit study:

http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/cobeneficios.html

Saved lives (Acute mortality + Chronic mortality)

(Discount rate 5%, 2003-2010)

Cost / Benefit analysis

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cogeneration

LPG total

Hybrid buses

Metro

Taxis

million US dollars Costs Benefits

1

16

20

3

86

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Cogeneration

LPG

Hybrid buses

Metro

Taxis

saved lives / year

Agreement signed by FIDE, INFONAVIT & INE (2003)Other participants: project developers (Casas GEO, etc.)Future participants: Certifiers (ATPAE, etc..)

Objective:

Reduce electricity consumption in new dwelling projects in the North region of Mexico (high energy consumption)

Reduce GHG emissions

Cities: Ciudad Juarez, Mexicali, Nuevo Laredo.

TechnologiesAir conditioner, Thermal isolation, Windows with double pane ofglass, Efficient lamps

Dwelling Project

• GHG mitigation actions undertaken in the energy sector

EnergyEnergy sector importance

– The energy sector represents 3% of the GDP.

– Oil exports represent 8.4% of total domestic exportations.

– Hydrocarbon taxes represent 37% of fiscal incomes.

– Almost 40% of total public investments is dedicated to energy projects.

– The sector has been increasing its efficiency and decreasing its rate of emissions growth.

The energy sector is one of the most important economic activities in Mexico and the principal source of public income.

Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

Energy Intensity 1965-2000

• Since the last decade, Mexico has been generating more wealth by energy of unit consumed.

Total energy supply

kilojouleskilojoules

Energy Consumption 2000:

1 GDP produced1 GDP producedFormula =Formula =

Kil

ojo

ule

s b

y G

DP

p

rod

uce

d u

nit

3.000

4.000

5.000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

82%

18%

OtrosHidrocarburos

Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

Emissions intensity

Emissions intensity and GDP

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CO

2 k

g b

y

US

$

GDP

Emissions intensity

US

$ B

illion

s

• Likewise, it produces less emissions per energy units.

Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

GDP

CO2 Emissions

Gross Internal Energy Supply

GDP, Gross internal energy supply and CO2 Emissions (1994)

Source: AIE, CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion, 2001.

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

Emissions and GDP growth

• Emissions growth has decoupled from GDP growth.

Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

Some Mexico’s Government GHGMitigation Strategies

•Combined Cycle (CC) Power Plants (CFE)

Almost 90% of new generating capacity projected to 2010 will be

satisfied through combined cycles

•Electric Motors (FIDE-CONAE)

Establishment of Official Mexican Norms (NOM) focused on

energy efficiency (National Commission of Energy Savings)

Cont…

•Industrial Cogeneration (CRE) It is estimated a potential of 8,664 MW in cogeneration projects

•Residential Efficient Lighting (CFE- FIDE) Substitution of efficient equipment

•Public Transportation (DDF)

Substitution of small buses (gasoline) for large buses (diesel) in the Mexican City Metropolitan Area (MCMA)

Increase of subway and light train routes in MCMA

•Renewable energy promotion

Over the past 10 years, the National Commission for Energy Savings

(CONAE) and the Trusteeship for Electric Energy Savings (FIDE) have

been implementing programs for a more sustainable use of energy,

especially:

Thermal insulation of homes, The introduction of highly efficient air conditioning equipment, The replacement of 500 thousand incandescent fixtures by fluorescent

ones in residential lighting, The issuing of 20 official norms on energy saving for household

appliances and other products.

Mitigation actions in the energy sector

It is estimated that the energy savings accumulated over the last five

years deriving from the programs mentioned reached 39 thousand

GWh, which meant a reduction of a little over 24 million tons of CO2.

During the year 2000 alone the country had energy savings

equivalent to 11 thousand GWh and the demand for more than 2,200

MW was obviated through programs oriented toward improving

efficiency in the final use of the energy.

These figures represented a reduction of almost 7 million tons of CO2

with respect to the baseline of 1990.

CO2 emissions saved in the power sector

The emissions per GWh generated in thermal plants have been declining.

In 2001, natural gas was 22.3% of the total fuel consumption, while in 1990 it was 16.1%.

The substitution of fossil fuels by natural gas in electricity generation, saved 413.4 thousand of tons of CO2 in 2000.

The accumulated saving since 1991-2000 is 4.5 millions of CO2.

CO2 emissions per GWh in thermal plants

(tonnes of CO2/GWh)

740

750

760

770

780

790

800

810

820

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Electric system CO2 Emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

mill

ion

s o

f to

nn

es

of

CO

2

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.40.6

0.81.0

1.2

mil

lio

ns

of

ton

nes

of

CO

2 sa

ved

emissions saved

emissions level

Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

Energy Efficiency Savings

Consolidated programs

ENERGY SAVINGS

AVOIDED CAPACITY

YEAR

Technical Standards

6,746 Gwh 1,000 Mw 2000

Summer Time

Programme

6,329 Gwh 863 Mw Since 1996

Energy Savings Programme

1,866 Gwh 525 Mw 1999

Evolution and Prospectives

CO2 emissions saved by Technical NOMs, FIDE activities and PEMEX programs alone amounted to 8.5 Mtons in 2000

Energy Savings (MBep's)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010M

iles o

f B

ep

's Conae

Fide

CFE HV

Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

There is an ongoing effort to develop a favorable legal framework to promote renewable energy sources.

Renewable Energy long-term infrastructure investment contracts.

Regulatory incentives (financial and contracts) including:

• Accelerated depreciation plans.

• Inter-connection agreements with the possibility of generated energy purchase.

• Incorporation of used capacity factors to energy transmission.

Renewable Energy

Green-Fund as a suplement for renewable energy prices.

• Multilateral Funds • Trade of carbon certificates .• Others

Support the promotion of a market for renewable energy buyers.Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

Renewable potential

• High levels of isolation 5 kWh/m2-day (average)

• High potential of small hydro projects 3,500 MW

• Geothermal fields 1,500 MW

• Wind potential 3,000 MW in Oaxaca

• Biomass 1,000 MW (sugarcane)

Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004

Recent – future projects

CFE (1,773 MW)

Hydro power stations: Chicoacen, Chiapas (936 MW), El Cajón, Nayarit (680MW) Geothermal: Los Azufres, Michoacán (107 MW)Wind energy: La Ventosa, Oaxaca (50MW)

Independent Power producers (173 MW)

Wind energy: La Ventosa, Oaxaca (107 MW), Santa. Catarina, Nuevo León (10 MW )Biomass Energy: Tizayuca, Hidalgo (15 MW), Waste in Monterrey, Nuevo León (7.4 MW)Solar Energy: Baja California (39 MW)

Source: Programa Energía y Medio Ambiente hacia el Desarrollo Sustentable. 2003. SENER-SEMARNAT 2002-2003

Ilumex pilot project was financed by:

•US$ 3 million from Norway•US$ 10 million from GEF through the World Bank •US$ 10 million from CFE.

Total US$ 23 million

ILUMEX Pilot Project

During the project approximately 2.5 million compact fluorescent lamps were sold in the Mexican cities of Monterrey and Guadalajara.Purchase of 3.6 million incandescent lamps were avoided.

Ilumex was the first AIJ project that was given a certificate by International Auditing

The total certified energy saving was 275,313 kW-hr from 1995 to 1998.

Ilumex was certified with the reduction of emissions :

171,169 tons of CO2 equivalent;

Assuming that 8.11% of total compact fluorescent lamps were stored.

Landfill project in Monterrey,Nuevo León, México

- Useful life: 25-30 years (44 hectares )

- 54 million m3 of CH4 from 7.6 million tons of waste (1990-1999).

- 700,000 MW/h (electricity generation) - 7 MW

- Avoided fuel consumption : 990 thousand tons (equivalent carbon)

- Total Investment US$ 11.5 million (WB US$5.2 million)

The electric power produced is connected to the CFE grid and transmitted to:

1.Municipality of Monterrey (Public lighting)2.Serviciosde Aguay Drenaje(Water pumping)3.Metrorrey(Transport)

In 2001, PEMEX emitted 40.1 million tons of CO2 distributed in: Pemex Exploration and

Production (PEP) 33.1%; Pemex Refinery (PR) 34.2%; Pemex Gas and Petrochemical (PGPB) 16%, and Pemex Petrochemical (PQ) 16.7%

SUBSIDIARIA 1999 2000 2001

PEP 13.87 14.23 13.26

PR 15.09 14.18 13.69

PGPB 6.27 6.49 6.41

PPQ 6.32 6.53 6.68

TOTAL 41.55 41.43 40.05

Source: PEMEX, Informe “Seguridad, Salud y Medio Ambiente 2001”.

PEMEX CO2 emissions (million tons)

In 2002 there is a reduction of 3.1 million tons compared to the same period in 2001 (January – August)

Internal market of Carbon permits Gas recovery project (Cactus) Workshop Arpel-Pemex on GHG emission reductions and carbon Energy efficiency and energy savings campaigns Training programs in energy and environment

PEMEX actions to mitigate CO2 emissions

• GHG mitigation actions undertaken in the forestry sector

In the sector of land use, change in land use, and forests, the main

strategies are:

Increasing the rate of accumulation of carbon, by creating or

increasing sinks Reducing the rate of carbon liberation already fixed in existing

sinks; and Reducing the use of fossil fuels and intensifying that of

renewable products.

Policies of mitigation in the forest sector

The main achievements over the past few years in conserving forest

ecosystems include:

The reforestation of more than 740 thousand hectares (Pronare

Program),

Forest planting of more than 47 thousand hectares between 1997-

2003 (Prodeplan Program),

Reclaiming of over 1.3 million hectares of agricultural lands for

forestry production.

In the period 1997-2000 these reclaiming actions would permit a

future capture of 3.3 million tons of carbon.

For the period 1997-2000, the Program of Forest Development (Prodefor) supported the efficient integration of productive wildlife chains on more than 7 million hectares.

With the complete instrumentation of the Program, the carbon capture was estimated at 288 million tons, of which 237 were accounted for by forests and 27 by vegetation in arid areas.

In addition, the Project of Conservation and Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in Mexico (Procymaf) has included over 116 thousand hectares in programs of sustainable forest management, and brought over 13 thousand hectares under the conservation program.

Sustainable management of forest and rainforest

BackgroundIn 1997, a preliminary assessment was carried out on the carbon sequestration

opportunities in four communities of the Union of Communities Zapoteco-Chinanteca (UZACHI) and in two from the Union of Communities from Ixtlán-Etla (IXETO), in the State of Oaxaca.

Objectives• Servicios Ambientales de Oaxaca (Environmental Services of Oaxaca), SAO, in

collaboration with other NGOs, are promoting a proposal to develop a one year pilot phase to design a scheme for carbon credits.

• It is expected to raise approximately USD $ 700 000, during the first phase of the project. Half of the funds raised would go to finance carbon sequestration citizen projects. The other half would finance agroforestry and improved forest projects from SAO member organizations, with a verifiable and certified 40, 000 tC from the atmosphere, converted into biomass or incorporated into the soil in one year.

Participative mitigation of climate change

…..Participative mitigation of climate change

•This project could offer technical and financial support to substitute conventional management systems for improved forestry systems by means of: Establishing permanent agriculture frontiers, reforestation and agroforestry plantations; increasing efficacy in fire, pests and diseases fight and prevention; the use and profit of non-timber products; reducing the impact of forest logging; and artificially lengthening of the forest cycle.

Lessons learned• The evaluation developed in 1997 indicated that 4.5 million tC could be sequestered in those six communities during the next 30 years, without any project intervention. It is estimated that 5.2 million tC could be achieved by this project during the same time. The global impact of this project was estimated at 720 kt C. This would imply an annual average of 24,000 tC.

• Opportunities for carbon sequestration have been identified now in another seven communities of the Sierra Norte and the Coast of Oaxaca. If the community of Santa María Huatulco would also be considered, the additional impact would be around 40,000 tC annually. The average cost of carbon sequestration within the project is currently estimated at around US $ 6-8 per ton.

Firewood still represents the main biofuel used in rural zones in

Mexico. In 1990, 25.6 million people (31.4% of the country's total

population) used firewood to cook. It is estimated that the total demand

for forest biomass (firewood and coal) is as high as 355 PJ/year.

Traditional and handmade stoves and ovens have an efficiency of only

17%, besides causing damages to the health because of the smoke

generated. To reduce these emissions, a rural program is in progress

for installing stoves with a greater energy efficiency which are expected

to permit a reduction in the use of around 6 million tons of wood per

year.

Switch to biofuels

Scolel Té Project

Objectives:Develop a carbon sequestration prototype scheme in sustainable forests and agricultural systems. To develop a carbon sequestration model that should be applicable on a larger scale in similar regions of Mexico and Latin America.

Location:The project is located in Chiapas, in the southern part of Mexico, covers two distinct bio-climatic and cultural regions of the State of Chiapas: highland Mayan Tojolobal communities and lowland Mayan Tzeltal communities.

Participants:

El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) and the University of Edinburgh's Institute of Ecology and Resource Management (IERM) are responsible for providing technical support to local technicians working with farmers' organizations and to the Fondo Bioclimático, and to monitor carbon sequestration and socio-economic impacts of the pilot phase of the project.

Carbon Sequestration Potential

The potential impact of the pilot project, in terms of carbon sequestered, is estimated in 300 thousand tons, through the development of 1,200 hectares of agroforestry lands and 1,000 hectares of restoration and management of natural forest.

Cost of sequestered carbon

The average cost of carbon sequestration within the project is currently estimated at around US $12/tC, of which US $8 are paid to farmers, US $ 2 for administration expenses, and US $ 2 for technical services.

Research associated

• Studies of carbon fluxes associated with land use change, involving direct measurement of biomass in different types of vegetation.

• Research and development of appropriate protocols for community forestry planning and administration of carbon sequestration schemes.

• Research of the cost and potential for large-scale carbon sequestration in southern Mexico, using economic models and geographic information such as satellite images

The Nature Conservancy and its Mexican partner organizations have undertaken a feasibility study to assess the potential for carbon sequestration investment in the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve and surrounding areas, in the state of Campeche, Mexico, in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Objectives• Demonstrate verifiable GHG benefits; the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation• Provide habitat protection important to flora and fauna of the Reserve;• Provide social and economic benefits to local communities.The Nature Conservancy believes that the proposed Calakmul Climate Action Project is feasible and warrants advancing to full project development.

LocationLocated on the Mexican border with Guatemala, the 1.8 million acre (723 000 hectares) Calakmul Biosphere reserve is one of the largest protected areas in Mexico. Calakmul is the best opportunity to preserve Mexico´s rapidly disappearing tropical evergreen and diverse tropical semi-deciduous forests.

Calakmul climate action project

Participants

• Winrock International • Consejo Civil Mexicano para la Silvicultura Sostenible • Instituto de Ecología at UNAM • El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR)

Project feasibilityThe following elements have been considered during the feasibility study:• Additionality of carbon credits• Potential leakage and prevention strategies• Ease of monitoring and evaluation• Legal land management agreement options• Risk assessment• Long term social and economic benefits (i.e. sustainable development)• Important long term conservation financing benefits

For more information:

General Directorate of Urban, Regional and Global Pollution Research

http://www.ine.gob.mx

jmartine@ine.gob.mx