Workshop on Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information

Dr. Jack HayesNWS/Office of Science & Technology

December 3, 2001

Dr. Jack HayesNWS/Office of Science & Technology

December 3, 2001

National Weather ServiceOutlook for Future Collection and

Distribution Systems

National Weather ServiceOutlook for Future Collection and

Distribution Systems

Workshop on Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information

Workshop on Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information

OutlineOutline

Collection and Dissemination of Information

Science and Technology Planning

Future Collection and Dissemination Systems

Summary


Science and Technology Planning


Summary

Public


Role


Role

Commercial Servicesand Media

InternationalOrganizations

Federal and StateAgencies

NWS

Observations & Other Data


Collection Systems


Collection Systems

Radar Radiosonde Surface COOP NESDIS Satellite and DCP River Gauges Buoys and Marine Observations Aircraft Reports

Radar Radiosonde Surface COOP NESDIS Satellite and DCP River Gauges Buoys and Marine Observations Aircraft Reports


Dissemination Systems



• NWR• NWWS• SBN/NOAAPORT• Internet• EMWIN• FOS• GMDSS

• NWR• NWWS• SBN/NOAAPORT• Internet• EMWIN• FOS• GMDSS

• GTS• LDAD• ISCS• Interagency

Connections• Gateway• AWIPS

• GTS• LDAD• ISCS• Interagency

Connections• Gateway• AWIPS


Architecture


Architecture

Gateway

FOS

SBN/NOAAPORT• GOES Obs•NCEP Product Suite

NWWS

(10 sec)

WAN

NESDIS

Internet-BasedDissemination

EMWIN

(> 1 min)

Telecommunications Operations Center

Satellite Legend:EMWIN

NOAAPORT

NWWS

Commercial Satellite

GOES

NWRWSR-88D

Field Offices

NCEP

Radar Data

Server

WxGov’t

Servers

NCF

Media &Other

Customers

Public

SpecializedCustomers

Other Agencies

LDAD

Designated Local

Customers

•Commercial Weather Services•Research Institutions•FAA, etc.

InternationalISCS

GTS

NWS Dissemination (MB / Day)

93%

<1%

1%

4%

2%

INTERNET (HTTP+FTP)

NOAAPORT

Family of Services

NOAA Weather Wire

NOAA Weather Radio,GMDSS, GTS


Current Product Volume


Current Product Volume

Total Volume / Day: 1148 GBTotal Volume / Day: 1148 GB

Science and Technology PlanningScience and Technology Planning

Users Continue to Have Growing Needs

Science and Technology Continues to Advance

Users Continue to Have Growing Needs

Science and Technology Continues to Advance

How Will NWS Respond and Continue to Improve? How Will NWS Respond and Continue to Improve?


• Establish S&T Direction for Future NWS

• Respond to Operational Product and Service Needs

• Identify Science and Technology Opportunities

• Prioritize Investments

• Support Disciplined and Streamlined Technology

Insertion

• Foster Partnering

• Establish S&T Direction for Future NWS

• Respond to Operational Product and Service Needs

• Identify Science and Technology Opportunities

• Prioritize Investments

• Support Disciplined and Streamlined Technology

Insertion

• Foster Partnering

ObjectivesObjectives

Science and Technology Planning Science and Technology Planning

NWS provides world’s most accurate and highest quality products and information. NWS provides world’s most accurate and highest quality products and information.

VisionVision

Example Warning Lead Times

2000 2025

Tornadoes 12 mins 60 mins

Thunderstorms 18 mins 4 hours

Flash Floods 43 mins 4 hours

Winter Storms 9 hours 5 days

Example Warning Lead Times

2000 2025

Tornadoes 12 mins 60 mins

Thunderstorms 18 mins 4 hours

Flash Floods 43 mins 4 hours

Winter Storms 9 hours 5 days


NWS Today:

Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS.

NWS Next:

What NWS will evolve to by 2010.

NWS After Next:

NWS of 20 or more years from now.

(from Dorman Report, 99)

NWS Today:

Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS.

NWS Next:

What NWS will evolve to by 2010.

NWS After Next:

NWS of 20 or more years from now.

(from Dorman Report, 99)

FrameworkFramework

Science and Technology PlanningLinking Advances to Results

Science and Technology PlanningLinking Advances to Results

Advances

Observations

Data Assimilation

Numerical Prediction

Computing Capability

Dissemination Methods

Forecaster Techniques

Advances

Observations

Data Assimilation

Numerical Prediction

Computing Capability

Dissemination Methods

Forecaster Techniques

Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts

Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.

Improved Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts

Improved Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts

Improved Flood and River Predictions

ResultsResults



Fundamental Environmental DataBase:Comprehensive

• Observations

• Analysis

• Forecasts

• Uncertainty Information

• Products and information (outlooks, watches, & warnings)

Digital

Seamless

Easily Accessible

Fundamental Environmental DataBase:Comprehensive

• Observations

• Analysis

• Forecasts

• Uncertainty Information

• Products and information (outlooks, watches, & warnings)

Digital

Seamless

Easily Accessible



Increase in:

Network Complexity

Data Volume and Product Count

Cost of Comm Infrastructure Management

Complexity of MetaData

Increase in:

Network Complexity

Data Volume and Product Count

Cost of Comm Infrastructure Management

Complexity of MetaData

Assumptions and Key Drivers Assumptions and Key Drivers

Future Collection and

Dissemination Systems Areas of Data Growth


Dissemination Systems Areas of Data Growth

NCEP Hi-Res Model Output (Eta, WRF) 22Km -> 12Km -> 4Km

ORPG/ORDA Deployment (FAA TDWR, Dual Polarization) 4 -> 8 bit, 1.0Km -> 0.25Km resolution

NWS INTERNET Data Volume Growing at 50% every 6 months

Satellite (GIFTS, NPOESS and GOES R+)More channels; higher resolution; more products

National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)Text Forecasts -> Grids

COOP and ASOS Hi-Res ObservationsDaily and Hourly -> 1 and 5 minute resolution


Dissemination Systems Future Collection and


• Communication and Product Format Standards

• Communication Advances

• “Threshold” Data Needs

• Data Reduction Techniques

• Communication and Product Format Standards

• Communication Advances

• “Threshold” Data Needs

• Data Reduction Techniques

Building Network FlexibilityBuilding Network Flexibility


Dissemination Solutions


Dissemination Solutions

Today NextInternal Dissemination: Push

External Dissemination: Pull

Use Combination of “Push” and

“Pull” Technology Based on

Customer Need

Centralized Servers and Data Distribution

Distributed (Decentralized) Data and Servers

Intranets and Dedicated Circuits Next Generation Internet

GRIB1, GRIB2, BUFR, RBG XML, Java

Static Data Formats and Locations

Dynamic Data Formats and Locations

Local Data Filtering and Cropping Centralized Data Filtering and Cropping (ex. NOMADS)


Data Access and Visualization Solutions


Data Access and Visualization Solutions

Today Next

Manual Database Search Information Extraction

Multiple 2-D Views Integrated 3-D, 4-D Data Fusion

First Generation Decision Aids Robust Data Monitoring, Expert Systems, and Fuzzy Logic

Stand Alone Environmental Databases

Seamless 4-D Database

SummarySummary

NWS Collects and Disseminates Data, in Variety of Ways.

Amount and Demand for Information is Growing Rapidly.

NWS will Build More Collection and Dissemination Systems with partners that are:

- Integrated

- Flexible

- Seemless

- Information Based

NWS Collects and Disseminates Data, in Variety of Ways.

Amount and Demand for Information is Growing Rapidly.

NWS will Build More Collection and Dissemination Systems with partners that are:

- Integrated

- Flexible

- Seemless

- Information Based

Documents

Workshop on Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information