Workshop #1Contemporary Trends &

Four Scenarios for the Future

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. . .

AMERICA’S RELIGIOUS LANDSCAPE

Driving Forces: Outside-In Thinking

HeadlineIncreasing Diversity in Congregational

Life

Generational Ethnic & Cultural Family Structures Faith Practice Participation in

ReligiousCongregations

Religious & Spiritual Needs

The Changing

Landscape

No Religious Affiliation

Spiritual, not Religious

Declining Church

Participation

Increasing Diversity & Pluralism

Changing Marriage & Family Life

Declining Religious

Socialization

Aging Baby Boomers

The Rise of Digital Media

& the Internet

No Religious Affiliation 15% of all Americans claim no

religious affiliation 25% of all 18-29 years 10% drop in the number of Christians

The challenge to Christianity in the U.S. does not come from other religions but from a rejection of all forms of organized religion.

Spiritual but not Religious Today, 18% of 18-39 year olds say

that are “spiritual, but not religious” compared to only 11% a decade ago.

Sticky Faith: From High School to College

Sticky Faith: Key Finding Churches and families overestimate youth

group graduates’ readiness for the struggles ahead with dire consequences for the faith. Only one in seven high school seniors report feeling

prepared to face the challenges of college life with few ready for the intensity of the college experience: loneliness, the search for new friends, being completely on their own for the first time, and the sudden availability of partying. 

One pervasive struggle for college students is finding a new church, as evident by the 40 percent of freshman who report difficulty doing so. Young people retrospectively report that the first two weeks of their college freshman year set the trajectory for their remaining years in school. 

Participation in Churches Declining worship attendance Declining participation in celebration

of sacraments & rites of passage

Demographic TrendsTrends in the Catholic Church 2001-2010

(Using figures from the Official Catholic Directory)

1. Catholic population+ 3 million (68.5 total)2. Parishes - 2,5003. Marriages - 70,000 (168,400 total)4. Infant Baptisms - 150,000 (857,410 total)5. Adult Baptisms - 43,000 (119,00 total)6. First Communions - 71,000 (822,000 total)7. Confirmations - 7,000 (622,000 total)8. Children (parish) - 400,000 (3.1 million)9. Teens (parish) - 78,000 (689,552)10. Catholic grade school - 500,000 (1.5 million)11. Catholic HS students - 70,000 (611,723)

Demographic Trends

The number of marriages celebrated in the Church has fallen from 415,487 in 1972 to 168,400 in 2010 — a decrease of nearly 60 percent — while the U.S. Catholic population has increased by almost 17 million.

To put this another way, this is a shift from 8.6 marriages per 1,000 U.S. Catholics in 1972 to 2.6 marriages per 1,000 Catholics in 2010.

(CARA, 2011) 

Diversity & Pluralism

Diversity of ethnic cultures & nationalities

No single authority exercises supremacy; no single belief or ideology dominations

Tapestry of religious and spiritual alternatives and choices

Family Life

Delaying marriage Having fewer children and later in life Decreasing number of children in two-

parent households Increasing number of unmarried

couples living together

Changing Views of Family

A Family

Not a Family

Married Coupled with Children

99 1

Married Couple without Children

88 10

Single Parent with Children 86 12Unmarried Couple with Children

80 18

Same-Sex Couple with Children

63 34

Same-Sex Couple without Children

45 52

Unmarried Coupled without Children

43 54

Pew Research, 2011

Family Religious Socialization Parental Influence: The single

most important social influence on the religious and spiritual lives of children, teens, and emerging adults is their parents.

Embedded Family Religious Practices: Effective religious socialization comes about through specific religious activities that are firmly intertwined with the daily habits of family life

Family Socialization

Faith

Parental Faith

Parental Modelin

g & Teaching

Prayer

Scripture

Reading

The single most important influence on the religious and spiritual lives of children, teens, and emerging

adults is their parents.

Family SocializationChildren and teenagers with seriously religious parents are more likely than those without such parents to have been trained in their lives to think,

feel, believe, and act as serious religious believers, and that that

training “sticks” with them even when the leave home and enter emerging

adulthood.(Souls in Transition: The Religious & Spiritual Lives of

Emerging Adults by Christian Smith with Patricia Snell)

Baby Boomers Every day for the next 19 years,

about 10,000 Boomers will turn 65.

A new stage of life between adult midlife – typically focused on career and child-rearing – and old age, traditionally marked by increasing frailty and decline. This new stage (60s-70s) is characterized by generally good health, relative financial stability, and an active, engaged lifestyle.

Digital Era 93% of teens & young adults are

online “Computer in your pocket” -

increasing mobile access – iPhone 8-18 year olds spend on average

7½ hours a day with media

Generational Change

Trends & Shifts 1. Increasing number of “Nones”2. Increasing number of “Spiritual but not

Religious” 3. Accepting and embracing diversity: culturally,

sexually, and in family structures 4. Declining participation in Sunday worship and

sacraments/rites of passage (marriage, baptism)5. Living together, marrying later, and having

children later 6. Declining levels of family faith practice &

socialization

Generational Change Significant Generational Change began

in the early 1990s among the younger generations and is influencing society and the older generations

These trends are having a significant impact on a Life Cycle approach to faith formation and church life, in general.

fewer marriages – marrying later – fewer baptisms – fewer young families lower Sunday worship attendance……..

Envisioning4 Scenarios for the Future

4 Scenarios

Scenarios are built around critical uncertainties about the external environment. That is, the stories are based on different outcomes of a few key uncertainties that are both most important to the future of faith formation in Christian churches and most uncertain in terms of future outcome.

4 Scenarios

1. Will trends in U.S. culture lead people to become more receptive to organized religion, and in particular Christianity or will trends lead people to become more resistant to organized religion and Christianity?

2. Will people’s hunger for and openness to God and the spiritual life increase over the next decade or will people’s hunger for and openness to God and the spiritual life decrease.

Two Critical Uncertainties

Faith Formation 2020 MatrixDominant Cultural Attitude toward Organized

ReligionReceptive

Low High People’s Hunger for God and the Spiritual Life

Resistant

Four Scenarios for the Future

4 Scenarios for the Future

Scenario 4

Uncommitted &

Participating

Scenario 1 Vibrant Faith & Active

Engagement

Scenario 3

Unaffiliated &

Uninterested

Scenario 2

Spiritual but Not

Religious

Diversity in Faith Practice & Religiosity

Not Religiousl

y Affiliated

Spiritual but Not

Religious

Minimal Engagement with Faith and Communit

y

Vibrant Faith

& Active Engagem

ent

4-Scenario Thinking Expanding faith formation to reach a

diversity of people – addressing the life tasks and issues, religious and spiritual needs of people in each scenario

Fashioning faith formation around people

Connecting people to faith formation experiences that respond to their spiritual and religious needs

Targeting Religious & Spiritual Needs

Scenario #4 Scenario #1

Scenario #3 Scenario #2

Responding to the 4 Scenarios

Scenario #4+ Life issues+ Extending worship+ Online FF center+ Service projects &

mission trips+ Deepening faith &

engagement

Scenario #1+ Life issues+ Extending worship+

Courses/workshops/small group programs

+ Online FF center + Service projects &

mission tripsScenario #3

+ Life issues+ Third Place settings+ Events (movie nights,

concerts, festivals, theater)

+ Service projects

Scenario #2+ Life issues + Third Place settings+ Service Projects &

Mission Trips+ Spiritual formation+ Spiritual seeker faith

formation