WORKING PAPER NO. 35 INITIAL TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT OF ...€¦ · are almost identical with negligible differences between the Consolidation and Decentralisation Options for both 2020

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This subject paper is intended to be a research paper delving into different views and

analyses from various sources. The views and analyses as contained in this paper

are intended to stimulate public discussion and input to the planning process of the

"HK2030 Study" and do not necessarily represent the views of the HKSARG.

WORKING PAPER NO. 35 INITIAL TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS

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Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide information on the reference transport demand forecasts, assessment of Reference Scenario and framework for option evaluations.

Background

Under Stage 3 of the HK2030 Study, Development Scenario and Development Options are formulated. The Development Options are then subject to transport, economic, financial as well as environmental assessments. Under the integrated approach adopted for the Study, the transport requirements identified for the Development Options are also assessed in terms of the environmental, economic and financial implications in order that a meaningful comparison of the Development Options could be made.

Under the Reference Scenario, various development choices have been considered to satisfy the land requirements. They can broadly be categorised into two different options of development patterns, namely Decentralisation and Consolidation. The details are presented in the paper on Development Options under the Reference Scenario. Assessments have been carried out to identify the transport requirements of the two Development Options in 2010, 2020 and 2030. The findings are summarised in the following sections.

Development Options

Under the Reference Scenario, the population in 2030 could be in the region of 9.2 million which is only marginally more than the population of 8.9 million for 2016 adopted in the previous strategic planning. In other words, the planning that we have done so far, including the existing, planned and identified development areas originally targeted for 2016, should be broadly sufficient for 2030 in terms of population growth. The planning choice, which has been reflected in the two Development Options - Decentralisation and Consolidation - is merely one of timing and priority.

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In both options, all the policy-driven land use proposals are common, which include container port (CT1-9), airport, logistic facilities, tourism/cultural facilities, environmental and strategic infrastructures such as power supply facilities and cross boundary infrastructure. All of them, except the future port, already have defined locations under the Reference Scenario. According to the latest coarse screening exercise of the Hong Kong Port 2020 Study, there are three potential sites, viz. South West Tsing Yi, North West Lantau and West Tuen Mun. Their impact (except West Tuen Mun) on transport in each Development Option will be tested separately. Future port at West Tuen Mun had been studied under the Feasibility Study for Additional Cross-border Links in 2000, no further testing will be carried out in this study.

Both Development Options will have a population increase by 12% from 2001 to 2010, another 12% from 2010 to 2020 and 8% from 2020 to 2030. The total population in 2030 will reach 9.2 million. For employment total, there will be a 10% increase from 2001 to 2010, 8% from 2010 to 2020 and 4% from 2020 to 2030, reaching about 4.0 million by 2030. However, as mentioned above, the spatial distribution is different in the Development Options.

Variations between the two Development Options up to 2010 are minimal as alternative land use patterns are only feasible over a longer time horizon. In the Decentralisation Option, the population and employment growths between 2010 and 2020 focus more on the New Territories (especially in NWNT and NENT) while in the consolidation pattern, the growths emphasize more on the Metro area. The difference in population distribution between the Consolidation and Decentralisation Options for the New Territories and the Metro area amounts to 220,000 in 2020 to 2030. In the New Territories, there are 50,000 and 60,000 more job places in the decentralisation pattern than the consolidation pattern by 2020 and 2030 respectively. The breakdown of the population and employment distributions for the two Development Options are tabulated in Annex A.

Input Assumptions

The Reference Scenario assumes a faster development pace at the western part of Pearl River Delta. Two additional cross-boundary infrastructures are assumed to be in place by 2011-2020, namely the Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge (HZMB) and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou Express Rail Link (ERL).

It is assumed that the annual domestic GDP growths are 3% and 2.5% before and after 2011 respectively. The GDP assumptions are projected figures assumed in the Reference Scenario.

The assumed car fleet sizes are 395,000 by 2010, 455,000 by 2020 and 532,000 by 2030. Car fleet size of 2030 has adopted the 2016 figure from the Strategic Highway Project Review 2002/03 due to similar population total. Fleet sizes for 2010 and 2020 were worked out by interpolation and maintaining a reasonable proportion between the population and car ownership.

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Four candidate locations of the future port at West Tuen Mun, North-west Lantau, East-Lantau and South-west Tsing Yi, had been identified in the Port Development Strategy 2000/01. As detailed assessment is still underway, it is anticipated that a recommended location could be decided under the HK Port Master Plan 2020 Study. However, its latest coarse screening exercise suggested that the four locations to be narrowed down to South-west Tsing Yi, North-west Lantau and West Tuen Mun. For reason as stated in para. 5, only the former two locations had been examined as future port options under both the Consolidation and Decentralisation patterns. Regardless of the future location of the port, it is anticipated that there will be an additional 13 container berths by 2020.

Based on the Hong Kong International Airport Master Plan 2020 of the Airport Authority, it is assumed that the annual air cargo capacity would go up to 9M tonnes and annual passenger capacity to 87M by 2020. For the purpose of the study, we have assumed a moderate annual growth rate of 2% for both passenger and cargo growth from 2020 to 2030, resulting in about 105 million passengers and 14 million tonnes of cargo a year by 2030. These assumptions will need to be revised upon availability of further updates from the Airport Authority.

Details of other input assumptions are summarised in Annex B. The same set of input assumptions was applied to all development and port options because the only differences between options are mainly on land-use, population and employment distributions.

Transport Demand

It is noted that there is a bigger discrepancy in population of 220,000 than employment places of about 50,000-60,000 between the two Development Options for the NT and the metro area in 2020 and 2030. However, these figures only represent about 2% of the territorial total population and employment.

For strategic transport assessment, there is only a slight difference in person trips between the two options (as shown in Table 1). Detailed information on person and goods vehicle trips for all development and port options is provided in Annex C.

Table 1 - Person Trips

Person Trips Development Option Port Location Private Public Total

2020 SW Tsing Yi 4,613,057 11,368,871 15,981,928Consolidation NW Lantau 4,611,582 11,360,895 15,972,477SW Tsing Yi 4,623,889 11,312,563 15,936,452Decentralisation NW Lantau 4,624,239 11,320,248 15,944,487

2030 SW Tsing Yi 5,061,140 11,883,138 16,944,278Consolidation NW Lantau 5,062,476 11,897,306 16,959,782SW Tsing Yi 5,071,241 11,858,955 16,930,196Decentralisation NW Lantau 5,070,820 11,843,760 16,914,580

Note: Private person trips comprise car, taxi and special purpose bus Public person trips comprise seven PT modes of MTR, KCR, LRT, Tram, Ferry, PLB and Bus

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From Annex C, it is observed that the numbers of public, private and goods vehicle trips between regions are fairly similar under the two Development Options. The number of internal trips in the Hong Kong Island is constant across all options. The number of the Kowloon internal trips under the Decentralisation Option is slightly less than that under the Consolidation Option. The numbers of public, private and goods vehicle trips are around 1.7%, 2% and 1.3% respectively lower under the Decentralisation Option. Most of these trips are absorbed by the internal trips of the New Territories. The total cross harbour trip is fairly similar for all options. The number of trips between Kowloon and the New Territories under the Decentralisaton Option is about 0.5% slightly more than that under the Consolidation Option.

The choices of transport mode (as shown in Table 2) are similar with 33-34% of person trips by bus and other public transport, 37-38% by rail, 11% by car, 11% by taxi and 8% by others in 2020 and 2030. Table 2 – Modal Share

Main Modal Split (%) Development

Option Port

Location Car Taxi SPB PT (non

rail) Rail

2020 SW Tsing Yi 10.6 10.6 7.6 33.7 37.4 Consolidation NW Lantau 10.6 10.6 7.6 33.7 37.4 SW Tsing Yi 10.7 10.6 7.7 33.5 37.5 Decentralisation NW Lantau 10.7 10.6 7.7 33.5 37.5

2030 SW Tsing Yi 11.1 10.3 8.4 33.0 37.1 Consolidation NW Lantau 11.1 10.3 8.4 33.0 37.2 SW Tsing Yi 11.2 10.3 8.4 33.0 37.0 Decentralisation NW Lantau 11.2 10.3 8.5 33.0 37.0

18. Table 3 shows the rail patronage for all years and all options. It is noted that the patronage

are almost identical with negligible differences between the Consolidation and Decentralisation Options for both 2020 and 2030.

Table 3 –Rail Patronage

Option Port Year Rail person trips %

Consolidation SW Tsing Yi 2020 6,477,447 37.4 Consolidation NW Lantau 2020 6,474,732 37.4 Decentralisation SW Tsing Yi 2020 6,498,298 37.5 Decentralisation NW Lantau 2020 6,498,584 37.5 Consolidation SW Tsing Yi 2030 6,949,846 37.1 Consolidation NW Lantau 2030 6,936,420 37.2 Decentralisation SW Tsing Yi 2030 6,919,804 37.0 Decentralisation NW Lantau 2030 6,913,449 37.0

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19. The only difference between the two development patterns is the average trip length. As shown in Table 4, Decentralisation Option results in an average trip length about 3% higher than the Consolidation Option. In general, longer trips will increase automobile dependence - motorised travel per person, although the variations between the two options are too small to indicate a significant difference. Table 4 –Trip Characteristics (AM Peak)

Trip Characteristics (AM Peak) Development

Option Port

Location Average Speed

km/hr Trip Length km. Trip Length min.

2020 SW Tsing Yi 29.90 10.18 20.44 Consolidation NW Lantau 30.10 10.32 20.54 SW Tsing Yi 29.10 10.47 21.62 Decentralisation NW Lantau 29.50 10.66 21.69

2030 SW Tsing Yi 28.90 10.91 22.68 Consolidation NW Lantau 29.50 10.99 22.37 SW Tsing Yi 28.50 11.16 23.51 Decentralisation NW Lantau 28.80 11.26 23.45

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The summary of pcu trips is provided in Annex D. It is noted that the differences between the Development Options are less than 1% in terms of the daily figures. The total trip distances of all options are similar.

Annex E provides a summary of the average speed. It is observed that the average speeds in the AM peak of the Decentralisation Option are around 0.4 to 0.8 km/hr slower than the Consolidation Option in both 2020 and 2030.

Proposed Transport Infrastructure Requirements

For the purpose of the HK2030 Study, the transport assessment has mainly studied the strategic transport demand. Assuming completion of all committed infrastructure projects as detailed in Annex F, major corridor movements are examined and bottleneck identified for improvement. New infrastructures are recommended making reference to projects previously studied by the Second Railway Development Study and the Third Comprehensive Transport Study in view of the similarities in population assumptions and the “ultimate” patterns of spatial distribution.

Indicative Time Horizon (by 2010)

The base transport network includes all committed projects (Annex F). As such, the Deep Bay Link, Shenzhen Western Corridor and the Lok Ma Chau Spur Line will all be in place before 2010. The testing results indicate slight capacity problems at the east-west corridor along the north shore of the Hong Kong Island and the north-south movements between NT West and the Metro area.

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No new strategic infrastructure is required. Only local improvement schemes including widening of Ting Kau Bridge to Dual-4 lane and improving the section of Island Eastern Corridor between Causeway Bay and North Point will suffice.

Indicative Time Horizon (by 2020)

The Reference Scenario has assumed the Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge (HZMB) and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou Express Rail Link (ERL) within the period. Only for the purpose of land use scenario testings, the future port is assumed at South West Tsing Yi∗. The implication of port location at North West Lantau is presented under para.29-32. By 2020, the major capacity problems will appear at the north - south corridor from NT West to the Metro area, the east-west movement across Kowloon and the movement between Tseung Kwan O and Kowloon. The v/c ratio of Tuen Mun Road near Tsuen Wan will be 1.3 during the am-peak. Congestion will also appear at North Lantau Highway east of Yam O with an am-peak v/c ratio of 1.1.

Proposed new infrastructures to be included in the 2020 network include:

(a) Strategic North-South Link (East) between NWNT and North Lantau, i.e. Route 10 - Northern Section (Lam Tei Tunnel) + Southern Section (Tai Lam Chung Tunnel, So Kwun Wat Link Road, Tsing Lung Bridge and associated Interchanges + Sham Tseng Tunnel Link Road (STTLR)), via Tsing Yi-Lantau Link to provide additional north-south capacity to better serve port related traffic and movement between NWNT and the Metro area; an additional Strategic North-South Link (West) between NWNT and North Lantau, i.e. Tuen Mun Western Bypass (TMWB) + Tuen Mun Chak Lap Kok Link (TM-CLKL) for the airport and possible logistic and port facilities. The latter will depend very much on the degree of intergration between Hong Kong and the PRD as well as the development intensity of the airport, port and other developments in Lantau;

(b) Either Route 7 (to be renamed as Route 4) or South Hong Kong Island Line;

(c) Central Kowloon Route, T2 and Western Coast Road; and

(d) Lantau Road P1 and Tsing Yi-Lantau Link Indicative Time Horizon (by 2030)

Traffic projections up to the year 2030 are indicative only due to uncertainties in land use assumptions. It is observed that there would be capacity problems along the north – south corridor from NENT to the Metro area and the cross-harbour screenline. The am-peak v/c ratio of individual road sections from NENT to the Metro area are summarised below:

∗ For detailed considerations of the future location of the port, please refer to Working Paper No. 39 on “Initial Assessment of Possible Port Development Sites”.

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Table 5 – v/c ratios along the corridor from NENT to the Metro area in 2030

Road am-peak v/c ratio

Tolo Highway 1.3

Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 1.5

Lion Rock Tunnel 1.5

Eastern Harbour Crossing 1.3

Cross Harbour Tunnel 1.6

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Additional capacities must be provided to meet the demand. Further investigation on projects like Eastern Highway (from NENT to Hong Kong Island) incorporating a fourth road harbour crossing may need to be considered.

Implication of port location

Alternative port location at North West Lantau has also been studied under the two Development Options. The results indicate that Route 10 from Yuen Long to Tsing Lung Tau (with Northern Section and Southern Section but excluding Tsing Lung Bridge) and STTLR will be required by 2020 to meet the transport demand between NT West and the Metro Area irrespective of the location of port and choice of Development Options.

If the future port is to be located at South West Tsing Yi, Tsing Lung Bridge together with Tsing Yi-Lantau Link could provide sufficient capacity to meet the port related traffic demand and the demand generated by developments in NT West. Tsing Lung Bridge (via Tsing Yi-Lantau Link) would function as an alternative route connecting NT West and the Metro areas. This would relieve the pressure of the existing Ting Kau Bridge, and allow Ting Kau Bridge some spare capacities to cope with the port related traffic.

If the port is located at North West Lantau, both Tsing Lung Bridge together with Tsing Yi-Lantau Link and TM-CLKL with TMWB could serve equally well as a NT to Lantau connector in 2020. If demand-led principle applies, Tsing Lung Bridge plus Tsing Yi-Lantau Link will be a better option which serves dual functions, i.e. satisfy demand generated by new port development and provide a long term connection between NT West and the Metro areas.

If new infrastructure is to be provided on a supply-led principle, the requirement of the TM-CLKL and TMWB would depend on the future position of our Airport in PRD and the intensity of future Lantau and airport developments. The future port at North West Lantau would add credit on the need of the TM-CLKL option.

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Rail Infrastructure

With the committed rail projects, the catchment of the rail network will cover over 60% of the total population and 70% of total employment. For the three design periods, no major corridor congestion problem is identified in the two Development Options.

Both Development Options do not have sufficient demand to support the West Island Line Extension nor a South Island Line. However, to promote tourism development and to provide an alternative transport mode to residents in Hong Kong Island South, a rail system extending from Sheung Wan Station via the tourism nodes in Southern District and back to the business centres along the north shore of the Island would benefit both residents and tourists. The possible new rail (by 2020) would also complete the rail circle within the Island to improve circulation. As a fallback plan for this rail loop, Route 7 (to be renamed as Route 4) is included in 2020 as an alternative road option.

The development of NDA’s in the Northern NT only focuses at three specific sites at Hung Shui Kiu, Kwu Tung North and Fanling North and is only included in the Decentralization Option in 2020. Other potential NDA sites such as Hung Shui Kiu North, Kam Tin/ Au Tau, San Tin/ Ngau Tam Mei, and Kwu Tung South will not be available before 2030. However, the NOL can complete the rail network forming a circular line between NT and Kowloon to facilitate better circulation. In view of this, NOL is assumed to be in place by 2020.

The North Island Line Extension (NIL) is suggested to be deferred beyond 2020. With the completion of the Shatin to Central Link, there will be two rail lines running along the same east-west corridor along the north shore of the Island. The need for a third parallel line is not critical. As such, the NIL is assumed to be in place by 2030.

Differences in Transport Requirements Between Development Options

As mentioned above, there are not much significant differences in transport demand between the two Development Options except on the average trip length. The Decentralisation Option will have an average trip length 3% higher than the Consolidation Option. There will not be significant difference in terms of transport infrastructure requirements.

A complete list of the assumed projects is at Annex G. The schematic alignments of the projects are also shown in Figure 1. Annex H summarised the v/c ratios of all development and port options for 2020 and 2030 across the screenlines in Figure 2. It is observed that with all the assumed projects, all the major screenlines will be within capacities in terms of the sum of total flows. There might still be some local traffic problems along individual roads that require attention in local transport studies.

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Next Steps

A more detailed transport evaluation of the two Development Options with two different port locations will be carried out with regard to the evaluation criteria which have incorporated comments received from the second consultation exercise in early 2002. The evaluation criteria include: - Safety - Reliability - Efficiency - Environmental Friendliness - Sustainability

The above findings will also form the basis for subsequent environmental and economic assessments. An overall evaluation on various options will then be carried out from economic, environmental, land use planning, social and transport points of view.

Further analysis will also be conducted on the “What if” scenarios to be formulated in due course.

The transport assessment so far is carried out with fixed cross-boundary assumptions. Variations to any of these assumptions will certainly have implications on the transport demand. Key issues like the land use and infrastructure planning of the Guangdong Province, tourism policies, cross boundary vehicle regulatory policy and provision of new cross boundary infrastructures, including the HZMB, ERL and the Eastern Crossing, need to be carefully studied in order to define the potential cross boundary transport demand envelop and pattern. A series of testing will be done to examine their effects.

Domestic transport requirements will then be reviewed taking on board the impact of cross boundary issues on land use-transport planning within the territory.

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Attachment Annex A Population and Employment Distribution by Broad District and by Years

(2010,2020,2030) Annex B Summary of Key Input Assumptions for Transport Modeling Annex C Person Trips and Goods Vehicle Trips by Sub-region Annex D Summary of PCU Trips Annex E Summary of Average Speed Annex F List of Committed Projects assumed under HK2030 Study Annex G Assumed Projects Annex H Vehicle Flow and v/c Ratios across Major Screenlines Figure 1 Assumed Road and Rail Projects Figure 2 Location of Screenlines Planning Department November 2003

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ANNEX A Population and Employment Distribution by Broad District and by Years (2010, 2020, 2030) Population (Consolidation pattern) 2001 2010 10/01 2020 20/10 2030 30/20 Metro 4099784 4425803 8% 4831254 9% 5049573 5%

NWNT 954299 1160803.1 22% 1332563 15% 1563659 17% NENT 1232555 1328514.4 8% 1418775 7% 1603840 13% SENT 336371 447925 33% 553396 24% 603246 9%

SWNT 96167 189275 97% 331224 75% 338627 2% NT 2619392 3126517 19% 3635958 16% 4109372 13% Total 6719176 7552320 12% 8467212 12% 9158945 8% Population (Decentralisation pattern) 2001 2010 10/01 2020 20/10 2030 30/20 Metro 4099784 4410676 8% 4608361 4% 4831052 5%

NWNT 954299 1161726.7 22% 1396084 20% 1672570 20% NENT 1232555 1333289.1 8% 1592350 19% 1740467 9% SENT 336371 454345.33 35% 541770 19% 577393 7%

SWNT 96167 192283.03 100% 328647 71% 337463 3% NT 2619392 3141644 20% 3858851 23% 4327893 12% Total 6719176 7552320 12% 8467212 12% 9158945 8% Employment (Consolidation pattern) 2001 2010 10/01 2020 20/10 2030 30/20 Metro 2529129 2725387 8% 2902504 6% 2990954 3%

NWNT 239709 266108 11% 287477 8% 311116 8% NENT 342161 374011 9% 396810 6% 426441 7% SENT 78041 102526 31% 121891 19% 134386 10%

SWNT 72661 115646 59% 158519 37% 169317 7% NT 732571 858291 17% 964697 12% 1041260 8% Total 3261700 3583678 10% 3867201 8% 4032214 4% Employment (Decentralisation pattern) 2001 2010 10/01 2020 20/10 2030 30/20 Metro 2529129 2712840 7% 2848490 5% 2928211 3%

NWNT 239709 271283 13% 314441 16% 373550 19% NENT 342161 382941.98 12% 427232 12% 432669 1% SENT 78041 99744 28% 116369 17% 127314 9%

SWNT 72661 116869 61% 160668 37% 170460 6% NT 732571 870838 19% 1018711 17% 1104003 8% Total 3261700 3583678 10% 3867201 8% 4032214 4% * The above figures are only results of computer modeling exercises and do not

necessarily represent the exact future population distribution.

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ANNEX B SUMMARY OF KEY INPUT ASSUMPTIONS FOR TRANSPORT MODELING Land Use Planning Assumptions of Reference Scenario

Population* Employment Development Option

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Consolidation 7,672,046 8,635,630 9,405,771 3,583,678 3,867,201 4,032,214

Decentralisation 7,672,046 8,635,630 9,405,771 3,583,678 3,867,201 4,032,214

* Population includes ‘Usual Residents’ plus ‘Persons other than Usual Residents present in Hong Kong at the reference moment’. ‘Persons other than Usual Residents’ include the defacto Mobile Residents and Transients. Economic Growth

Year GDP Growth Rate 2002 1.5%

2003-2010 3.0%

2011-2030 2.5%* * Assumed under reference scenario Port Cargo Growth (million TEUs) 2001 2010 2020 2030 Ocean Trade 13.2 21.0** 30.2** 36.8# River Trade 4.7 8.7** 10.4** 12.7# Total Port Cargo 17.9 29.7** 40.6** 49.5# ** Source: Port Cargo Forecasts 2000/01, Hong Kong Port and Maritime Board, 2001 # Assuming annual growth of 2% from 2021, subject to HKP2020 Study

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Port Back-up Areas (demand figures)

Year Area (hectares) 2010 353 2020 457 2030 504

Vehicle Fleet

Year Private Vehicle Goods Vehicle 2010 395,000 116,910

2020 455,000 122,280

2030 532,000 128,530 Note: PV fleet size assumption for 2016 in the SHPR 2002/03 is adopted for year 2030 due to similar population total. PV fleet size for 2010 and 2020 by interpolation. GV fleet sizes are estimated based on the annual growth rate of 0.5% assumed in SHPR 2002/03.

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ANNEX C Consolidation - Person Trips and Goods Vehicle Trips by Sub-region in 2020

Public Private Goods Vehicle

Person Trips % Person Trips % Vehicle Trips %

South West Tsing Yi Port

HK Internal 1,380,727 12.1 1,111,271 24.1 72,487 9.1 KLN Internal 2,729,426 24.0 1,164,504 25.2 148,859 18.7 NT Internal 2,717,331 23.9 1,201,743 26.1 340,745 42.9 Cross Harbour 2,379,288 20.9 375,292 8.1 49,661 6.3 NT/Kowloon 2,162,099 19.0 760,247 16.5 182,806 23.3 Total 11,368,871 100 4,613,057 100 794,558 100

North West Lantau Port


Decentralisation- Person Trips and Goods Vehicle Trips by Sub-region in 2020


Person Trips % Person Trips % Vehicle Trips %

South West Tsing Yi Port



HK Internal 1,367,756 12.1 1,107,771 24.0 72,573 9.1

KLN Internal 2,523,845 22.3 1,072,865 23.2 138,514 17.4 NT Internal 2,895,689 25.6 1,274,327 27.6 351,506 44.3 Cross Harbour 2,376,878 21.0 381,758 8.3 49,168 6.2 NT/Kowloon 2,156,080 19.0 787,518 17.0 182,299 23.0 Total 11,320,248 100 4,624,239 100 794,060 100

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Consolidation Person Trips and Good Vehicle Trips by Sub-region in 2030


Person Trips % Person Trips % Vehicle Trips % South West Tsing Yi Port

HK Internal 1,324,039 11.1 1,200,002 23.7 63,508 7.6

KLN Internal 2,812,560 23.7 1,230,175 24.3 139,331 16.7

NT Internal 2,914,147 24.5 1,334,209 26.4 375,871 45.0

Cross Harbour 2,622,941 22.1 463,865 9.2 59,012 7.1

NT/Kowloon 2,209,451 18.6 832,889 16.5 197,485 23.6

Total 11,883,138 100 5,061,140 100 835,207 100


HK Internal 1,325,147 11.1 1,200,834 23.7 63,647 7.6

KLN Internal 2,812,483 23.6 1,231,258 24.3 140,229 16.8

NT Internal 2,922,919 24.6 1,334,154 26.4 375,571 45.0

Cross Harbour 2,623,574 22.1 464,507 9.2 59,156 7.1

NT/Kowloon 2,213,183 18.6 831,723 16.4 196,145 23.5

Total 11,897,306 100 5,062,476 100 834,748 100 Decentralisation - Person Trips and Goods Vehicle Trips by Sub-region in 2030

Public Private Goods Vehicle Person Trips % Person Trips % Vehicle Trips %

South West Tsing Yi Port HK Internal 1,312,849 11.1 1,190,735 23.5 64,123 7.7 KLN Internal 2,626,599 22.1 1,151,845 22.7 132,300 15.8 NT Internal 3,100,640 26.1 1,413,323 27.9 383,579 45.9 Cross Harbour 2,618,636 22.1 476,311 9.4 58,620 7.0 NT/Kowloon 2,200,231 18.6 839,027 16.5 196,664 23.5 Total 11,858,955 100 5,071,241 100 835,286 100 North West Lantau Port HK Internal 1,312,940 11.1 1,191,245 23.5 64,137 7.7 KLN Internal 2,617,269 22.1 1,150,916 22.7 133,438 16.0 NT Internal 3,098,092 26.2 1,412,831 27.9 383,792 46.0 Cross Harbour 2,614,970 22.1 477,316 9.4 58,777 7.0 NT/Kowloon 2,200,489 18.6 838,512 16.5 194,595 23.3

Total 11,843,760 100 5,070,820 100 834,739 100

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ANNEX D Summary of PCU Trips

PCU Trips Scenario Port Location

Daily AM Peak PM Peak Off Peak

2020

SW Tsing Yi 4,504,365 243,978 245,325 271,039Consolidation

NW Lantau 4,505,730 241,628 244,869 271,582

SW Tsing Yi 4,507,151 246,177 245,663 270,877Decentralisation

NW Lantau 4,506,356 243,818 245,154 271,275

2030

SW Tsing Yi 4,878,801 265,157 268,043 293,531Consolidation

NW Lantau 4,879,205 261,156 267,241 294,323

SW Tsing Yi 4,887,984 268,373 269,769 293,539Deccentralisation

NW Lantau 4,887,611 264,520 269,019 294,249

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ANNEX E Summary of Average Speed

Average Speed (km/hr) Scenario Port Location

AM Peak PM Peak Off Peak

2020

SW Tsing Yi 29.9 32.1 32.8 Consolidation

NW Lantau 30.1 32.3 32.4

SW Tsing Yi 29.1 32.0 32.7 Decentralisation

NW Lantau 29.5 32.0 32.5

2030

SW Tsing Yi 28.9 29.6 30.8 Consolidation

NW Lantau 29.5 30.3 29.4

SW Tsing Yi 28.5 29.6 31.4 Decentralisation

NW Lantau 28.8 30.1 29.5

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ANNEX F List of Committed Projects assumed under HK2030 Study:

Configuration

Hong Kong

Central - Wan Chai Bypass and Island Eastern Corridor Link D3/D4

New Territories

Route 5 Extension (to be renamed as Route 9) D2

Route 9 (Tsing Yi to Cheung Sha Wan) and (Cheung Sha Wan to Sha Tin) D3

Castle Peak Road Widening (Tsuen Wan Area 2 to Siu Lam) D2

Tolo Highway/Fanling Highway Widening (between Island House Interchange and Fanling) D4

Sha Tin Trunk Road T7 D2

Reconstruction and Improvement to Tuen Mun Road D3

Kam Tin Road Improvements (including Kam Tin Bypass) D2

Widening of Yuen Long Highway to Dual 3-Lane D3

Chok Ko Wan Link Road D3

Cross Boundary

Deep Bay Link D3

Hong Kong Shenzhen Western Corridor D3

Rail

KCRC West Rail - Nam Cheong to Tuen Mun

KCRC East Rail Extension - Hung Hom to Tsim Sha Tsui

Ma On Shan to Tai Wai Rail Link

Lok Ma Chau Spur Line

Penny’s Bay Rail Link

Kowloon Southern Link

Shatin to Central Link

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• •

ANNEX G

Assumed Projects The major assumptions for domestic transport planning under the reference scenario are highlighted below:

Completion of all committed projects as programmed. Projects assumed include:

By 2020 (with Hong Kong-Zhuhai–Macao Bridge and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen-

Guangzhou Express Rail Link cross boundary infrastructures)

(Road) - Central Kowloon Route /T2/Western Coast Road; - Lantau Road P1/ Tsing Yi-Lantau Link; - Strategic North-South Link (West) between NWNT and North Lantau (i.e.

Tuen Mun-Chek Lap Kok Link and Tuen Mun Western Bypass); - Strategic North-South Link (East) between NWNT and North Lantau (i.e.

Route 10 and Tsing Lung Bridge)∗; and - Either Route 7 or South Hong Kong Island Line (Rail).

(Rail) - West Hong Kong Island Line; and - Northern Link

By 2030

(Road) - Eastern Highway (NT North to Hong Kong Island)

(Rail)

- North Hong Kong Island Line

It should be noted that the transport projects assumed are purely postulates for strategic transport assessments of the development options under the Study. The need, scope and timing of each of the assumed transport projects would be subject to further review. For example, the need for the Strategic North-South Link (West) between NWNT and North Lantau would depend on the future position of our Airport in PRD and the intensity of future Lantau and airport developments.

∗ “Route 10 and Tsing Lung Bridge” includes Route 10 Northern Section (Lam Tei Tunnel) + Route 10 Southern Section (Tai Lam Chung Tunnel, So Kwun Wat Link Road, Sham Tseng Tunnel Link Road, Tsing Lung Bridge and associated Interchanges)

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ANNEX H

Vehicle flow and v/c ratios across major screenlines

2020 Consolidation - SWTY port Screenline

PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C XH S/B 1840 1660 10128 13628 12900 1.06 XH N/B 1514 1805 5878 9197 12900 0.71 KLN W S/B 1877 8152 12668 22697 27500 0.83 KLN W N/B 1675 8165 7582 17422 27500 0.63 KLN C S/B 1383 2462 10023 13868 15200 0.91 KLN C N/B 1151 2406 4107 7664 14200 0.54 KLN E S/B 886 1723 7159 9768 12050 0.81 KLN E N/B 875 1185 2449 4509 12050 0.37 HKX S/B 1306 692 3844 5842 12526 0.47 HKX N/B 1406 702 5594 7702 11471 0.67 AA E/B 3479 5544 11416 20439 39600 0.52 AA W/B 3602 5510 14006 23118 41300 0.56 CC S/B 4337 6239 20509 31085 54602 0.57 CC N/B 4010 6108 14241 24359 53603 0.45 FF E/B 2414 1178 6435 10027 26450 0.38 FF W/B 2909 849 5959 9717 26950 0.36 GG E/B 1601 1401 5518 8520 13344 0.64 GG W/B 1886 1177 6585 9648 13701 0.70 II E/B 503 562 2299 3364 4600 0.73 II W/B 519 573 2456 3548 4600 0.77 KK E/B 2934 4541 15496 22971 49130 0.47 KK W/B 2817 5037 7849 15703 47019 0.33 RR-W S/B 1457 5440 7426 14323 17300 0.83 RR-W N/B 1353 4739 3850 9942 17300 0.57 RR-E S/B 554 2081 5048 7683 8300 0.93 RR-E N/B 497 2215 2551 5263 8300 0.63 SS E/B 2039 8873 9316 20228 27900 0.73 SS W/B 1935 9068 6296 17299 27900 0.62 TT S/B 1012 5460 4827 11299 20350 0.56 TT N/B 973 4868 3639 9480 20350 0.47 NENT W/B 1039 4491 6734 12264 16850 0.73 NENT E/B 1018 4120 4835 9973 16850 0.59 NWNT E/B 2735 10340 10332 23407 35100 0.67 NWNT W/B 2631 9593 7163 19387 35100 0.55 SWNT E/B 838 1965 3942 6745 10800 0.62 SWNT W/B 885 2008 4685 7578 10800 0.70

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2030 Consolidation - SWTY port Screenline PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C

XH S/B 1960 1960 12660 16580 18300 0.91 XH N/B 1634 2145 7589 11368 18300 0.62 KLN W S/B 1877 8717 14160 24754 27500 0.90 KLN W N/B 1675 8971 9309 19955 27500 0.73 KLN C S/B 1503 2837 11849 16189 20600 0.79 KLN C N/B 1271 2567 4935 8773 19600 0.45 KLN E S/B 886 1758 7519 10163 12050 0.84 KLN E N/B 875 1227 2688 4790 12050 0.40 HKX S/B 1306 711 4360 6377 12526 0.51 HKX N/B 1406 731 6372 8509 11471 0.74 AA E/B 3479 5664 12629 21772 39600 0.55 AA W/B 3602 5758 15410 24770 41300 0.60 CC S/B 4337 5655 21507 31499 54602 0.58 CC N/B 4010 5794 16117 25921 53603 0.48 FF E/B 2534 1172 7591 11297 26450 0.43 FF W/B 3029 999 7812 11840 26950 0.44 GG E/B 1601 1030 5345 7976 13344 0.60 GG W/B 1886 1116 6020 9022 13701 0.66 II E/B 503 543 2486 3532 4600 0.77 II W/B 519 555 2458 3532 4600 0.77 KK E/B 2934 4540 16961 24435 49130 0.50 KK W/B 2817 5176 10163 18156 47019 0.39 RR-W S/B 1457 6137 8711 16305 17300 0.94 RR-W N/B 1353 5120 5101 11574 17300 0.67 RR-E S/B 674 2392 7284 10350 13700 0.76 RR-E N/B 617 2375 3103 6095 13700 0.44 SS E/B 2039 9831 11274 23144 27900 0.83 SS W/B 1935 9614 8866 20415 27900 0.73 TT S/B 1012 5539 7628 14179 23950 0.59 TT N/B 973 4937 4770 10680 23950 0.45 NENT W/B 1159 5023 10096 16278 22250 0.73 NENT E/B 1138 4630 6777 12545 22250 0.56 NWNT E/B 2735 11084 13485 27304 35100 0.78 NWNT W/B 2631 10251 10102 22984 35100 0.65 SWNT E/B 838 2266 4310 7414 10800 0.69

SWNT W/B 885 2320 5634 8839 10800 0.82

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2020 Decentralization - SWTY port Screenline PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C

XH S/B 1840 1654 10016 13510 12900 1.05 XH N/B 1514 1799 6003 9316 12900 0.72 KLN W S/B 1877 8194 13593 23664 27500 0.86 KLN W N/B 1675 8155 7549 17379 27500 0.63 KLN C S/B 1383 2432 10593 14408 15200 0.95 KLN C N/B 1151 2376 4244 7771 14200 0.55 KLN E S/B 886 1645 7200 9731 12050 0.81 KLN E N/B 875 1171 2389 4435 12050 0.37 HKX S/B 1306 684 3682 5672 12526 0.45 HKX N/B 1406 698 5672 7776 11471 0.68 AA E/B 3479 5425 11821 20725 39600 0.52 AA W/B 3602 5323 13221 22146 41300 0.54 CC S/B 4337 6142 20858 31337 54602 0.57 CC N/B 4010 6033 14497 24540 53603 0.46 FF E/B 2414 1126 6495 10035 26450 0.38 FF W/B 2909 844 6069 9822 26950 0.36 GG E/B 1601 1364 5537 8502 13344 0.64 GG W/B 1886 1146 6742 9774 13701 0.71 II E/B 503 569 2120 3192 4600 0.69 II W/B 519 575 2482 3576 4600 0.78 KK E/B 2934 4481 15088 22503 49130 0.46 KK W/B 2817 4874 7588 15279 47019 0.32 RR-W S/B 1457 5714 7875 15046 17300 0.87 RR-W N/B 1353 4845 4107 10305 17300 0.60 RR-E S/B 554 2080 6048 8682 8300 1.05 RR-E N/B 497 2277 2702 5476 8300 0.66 SS E/B 2039 9258 9745 21042 27900 0.75 SS W/B 1935 9358 7369 18662 27900 0.67 TT S/B 1012 5593 7129 13734 20350 0.67 TT N/B 973 4991 4064 10028 20350 0.49 NENT W/B 1039 4658 8717 14414 16850 0.86 NENT E/B 1018 4281 5024 10323 16850 0.61 NWNT E/B 2735 10579 11293 24607 35100 0.70 NWNT W/B 2631 9835 8127 20593 35100 0.59 SWNT E/B 838 1987 3971 6796 10800 0.63 SWNT W/B 885 2031 4717 7633 10800 0.71

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2030 Decentralization - SWTY port Screenline PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C


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2020 Consolidation - NWLT port Screenline PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C


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2030 Consolidation - NWLT port Screenline PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C


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2020 Decentralization - NWLT port Screenline PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C


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2030 Decentralization - NWLT port Screenline PT GV PV TOTAL CAP. V/C


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FIGURE 1 : ASSUMED ROAD AND RAIL PROJECTS

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FIGURE 2 : LOCATION OF SCREENLINES

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WORKING PAPER NO. 35 INITIAL TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT OF ...€¦ · are almost identical with negligible differences between the Consolidation and Decentralisation Options for both 2020