Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
McKinsey & Company
WORKFORCE OF THE FUTURE
ARNE GASTPartner, Leader of McKinsey's Organization Practice in Asia Pacific (McKinsey & Company, Malaysia)
A future that works: Harnessing automation for a more productive and skilled workforce
TUESDAY, 25 JUNE 2019 | 11.15AM
McKinsey & Company 2
Our challenge is mobilizing mindsThe changing pattern of size of productivity
1 Excluding outliers and companies with negative net income; constant 2004 dollars
2 Includes the following industries: Utilities, Financial Institutions, Information Technology, Healthcare, Automobile and components,
Commercial and Professional Services, Real Estate and Energy
1984 2004 2017
2001000 300 700600400 500
150
0
50
100
200
250
300
Employees
Thousands
Net income/employee (financial)
Top 300 firms by MV2
USD thousands
0 100 5002000
300 400
50
100
150
200
250
300
Employees
Thousands
Net income/employee (performance)1
Top 150 firms by MV
USD thousands
4000 300100 200 5000
50
100
150
200
250
300
Employees
Thousands
Net income/employee (performance)1
Top 150 firms by MV
USD thousands
Source: Lowell L. Bryan and Claudia I. Joyce. “Mobilizing Mind” (2007) – updated 2017
McKinsey & Company 3
“Workforce for the Future” needs 5 strategies
WHY? Productivity Strategy
• Determine productivity pathway
• Choose automation speed
WHO? Skill hours strategy WHERE? Location Strategy HOW? Organization Strategy
• Skill up Social/Emotional Skills
• Skill out Manual Skills
• Domino upskilling
• …
• Deal with “ city pull”
• Decide on talent hot spots
• Know where you talent is
• …
• Focus on your core
• Renew operating model
• Change EVP
• ….
WHAT? Mobility Strategy
• Massive action plan
• Align your ecosystem
• Start mobility center
• Shift mindsets
• …
• …
• Build capabilities for your strategy
• Adjust to regulation
McKinsey & Company 4
WHY? Determine your productivity pathway
Measure productivity granularly...
Across corporate
functions
By asset type
By asset maturity
…
By subfunction
Across all assets
… and choose your path for competitiveness
Drive organization wide
productivity uplift1
Build “old” for efficiency and
“new” for effectiveness 2
…..3
McKinsey & Company 5
WHY?Decide your speed to capture automation potential
64
58
55
53
53
50
47
44
44
44
43
41
40
40
39
38
37
36
31
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Construction
Oil & Gas
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Accommodation/food services
Transportation/warehousing
Mining
Finance/insurance
Utilities
Real estate/rental and leasing
Other services
Information
Arts/entertainment/recreation
Administrative/support/waste management
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Health care/social assistance
Management of companies/enterprises
Educational services
FTE weighted % of technically automatable activities 1, (%)
1 We define automation potential by the work activities that can be automated by adapting currently
demonstrated technology
of occupations
have close to 1% of tasks
automatable.. ~100 of occupations
have ~60% of tasks
automatable~30
...yet less then 10% of jobs are full automatable
Source: McKinsey Global Institute Global Automation Impact Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Activities are automatable across industries…
McKinsey & Company 6
WHY?Your strategy will need new institutional capabilities
Implications
New and more complex analytical methods required to
maximize the value of large data
AI to interpret seismic images, improving
hit rate and removing human error
Advanced
Analytics
Higher-level, uniquely human cognitive abilities become the
differentiator as lower value tasks are automated
Next generation BIM models significantly
reduces engineering hours
Eliminate the need for human intervention in non-decision
making functions through artificial intelligence, machine vision
Augmented reality to provide training on
complex procedures (advanced simulation)
Robotics
Completely new, agile business models – enabled by digitization
lowering distribution and transaction costs
Data sharing allows for supplier to take an
end-to-end responsibility
Process
digitization
Source: McKinsey Organization in Oil & Gas Service Line
Technological trends
Business model
innovation
Design thinking skills required for integrated planning and
coordination with supplies, reducing CAPEX
Digital enables working closer with
suppliers with fewer inefficient interfaces
Production increased through optimization and automated
production controls
Autonomous pipeline inspections using
submarine drones
Digital and Technical (i.e. robotics, programming) skills become
‘core’ as technological solutions replaces manual labor
Robotic handling of hazardous activities
(e.g. pipe handling)
Real-time advanced analytics models
optimizing topside and subsurface settings
Reduced exploration costs by less need for manual analytics
work
McKinsey & Company 7
1419
14
17
20
2111
9
4334
2016 2030
Evolution in skill categoriesPercent hours worked, Energy sector
Skill categories
Physical and
manual skills
Manual service or maintenance tasks
Facilities or operational system monitoring
Basic cognitive
skills
Basic data input and processing
Basic literacy, numeracy and communication
Higher cognitive
skills
Project management
Information interpretation and decision making
Social and
emotional skills
Adaptability and continuous learning
Entrepreneurship and initiative taking
Technological
skills
Advanced data analytics and mathematical skills
Tech design and engineering
Example skills
WHO?Some skill-hours will go up , yet some other skill-hours will go down
Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
McKinsey & Company 8
WHO?‘Domino reskilling’ will help to bridge skill hours - gaps
‘Domino’ development path from Mortgage Loan Officer to Management Analyst
Percentage
skill overlap
between
roles
59.3%53.0%
76.8% 80.1% 77.9%
Credit
analyst
Management
analyst
Financial
analyst
Mortgage
loan officer
Note: Skill clusters were computed based on global LinkedIn database. Skill clusters were then mapped to job roles. Transitions between job
roles suggested based on similarity of skills.
Shortcut
Shortcut
Source: McKinsey People Analytics
McKinsey & Company
WHERE?Use “outside in” data to address talent questions
How does your sourcing compare to
other organizations and where are there
potential sources of untapped talent?
What is the your distribution of
key skills and how does it compare
to other organizations?
Alabama
ArkansasArizona
California Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Idaho
IllinoisIndiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Massachusetts
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Mississippi
Montana
North Carolina
North
Dakot
a
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Nevada
New York
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South
Carolina
South
Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin
West
Virginia
Wyoming
Washington, DCDelaware
Maryland
New Jersey
Rhode Island
PeerCo PeerCoClientCo
McKinsey & Company 10
WHAT?Massive action to bridge skill hour gaps
How do
I adjust my
volume &
variety of
skill-
hours?
SHORTAGE:
How do I close
a skill gap?
I will...
OVERAGE:
How do I
address a skill
source I no
longer need?
I will…
ACQUIRE
new, in-house
workers that
are ready…
Today, by…
Tomorrow, by…
BUILD upon existing workforce via…
RENT new, external workers
through…
RELEASE workers by…
REDEPLOY workers I do not need but
cannot release, by…
GROW by…
A
B
C
D
E
F
Areas of interventions
5. Acqui-hire entire organizations
6. Recruit ready-now individuals
7. Rent-to-acquire individuals
8. Create and recruit from new pools of potential hires
9. Recruit for intrinsic and building skills needed
1. Reskill existing employees
2. Upskill existing employees
3. Retain employees with scarce skills
4. Reshape jobs and projects to focus scarce skillsets on key work
10. Form strategic partnerships (e.g., JVs)
11. Outsource entire function(s)
12. Contract out work to an organization or individual
13. Activate gig economy by creating discrete, paid tasks for freelancers
16. Terminate employees thoughtfully
17. Encourage voluntary attrition and not back-filling
18. Divest business units
19. Create contractual options to end relationships
20. End contracts with rented talent
14. Rent workers out to other entities
15. Shift unneeded skillsets to next-best alternatives
21. Accelerate business demand in order to match supply
Levers
McKinsey & Company 11
WHAT?“Mobility Center” is required at the heart of the FoW Strategy
Analytical Core
One source of truth
on skills and #
Advanced analytics
Modelling scenarios
for FTEs and cost
Quantitative
decision-making
Reskilling
Domino Skill
Plan
Bootcamps
Digital Learning
Skill-out Plans
Partnerships
Insource
Carve out
Recruiting
engines
Job partners
Placement Engine
Matching supply and demand
Internal job database
External job database
Online skills matching
Global talent recruitment
Physical space for counseling
Communication
Strategy
Internal
communication
Brand building to
employers
Story to the media
Workforce
management
Management
Dashboards
Annual dynamic KPI
setting to reach targets
Tracking of automation
and productivity
initiatives
Aspiration
Purpose of the Mobility Center
Scope of the Mobility Center
Ultimate KPIs and milestones
Lean structure
P&L for mobilizing people
McKinsey & Company 12
WHAT?Work with your ecosystem
Release
Recruit, rent
• Retirement age
• Welfare mechanisms
Overseas
• Migration policy
• Skill-based curricula,
micro-credentialing
• Life-long learning
• New delivery methods
(e.g. Massive Open
Online courses)
• Redeploy
labour
• Internal training,
retraining, upskilling
• Talent and training
exchanges
between orgs
Businesses +
organisations
Other influencers and enablers
Labour market
(skills matching)
• Mobility centre
Training, upskilling
Not in
workforce
Educational
institutions
Government
Social sector
Unions
McKinsey & Company 13
WHAT?Mindsets: shift for employees
Me& &Me
McKinsey & Company 14
“Your principal moral obligation as a leader is to develop the skill set of every one of the people in your charge - including semi-permanent and temporary –to the maximum extent of your abilities consistent with their revolutionary needs in the years ahead”
Tom Peters
The Excellence Dividend
14McKinsey & Company
WHAT?Mindset: Shift for executives
McKinsey & Company 15
Thank you
For more information
McKinsey Insights
Get our latest thinking on the “Future of Work”, “Re-
skilling” and other organization topics
