Upload
others
View
9
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Economics is changing
Researchers are studying mental wellbeing.
We are drawing closer to psychology and medicine.
The distribution of life-satisfaction levels among British people
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35P
erce
ntag
e of
Pop
ulat
ion
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Self-rated Life Satisfaction
Source: BHPS, 1997-2003. N = 74,481
Average Happiness and Real GDP per Capita for Repeated Cross-sections of Americans.
1.8
22.
22.
42.
6M
ean
Hap
pine
ss
1500
018
000
2100
024
000
Rea
l GD
P p
er C
apita
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Year
Real GDP per Capita Mean Happiness
• activity in the brain’s pleasure centres• health, smiles, positive emotional arousal, and
future intentions
Self-reported happiness relates strongly to…….
☺
Pleasure centre: septal area of the hypothalamusAmygdala:
emotions
Reported happiness is correlated with…
• A person’s assessment of happiness by friends and family
• Person’s assessment of happiness by spouse
• Person’s recall of good and bad events• Heart rate and blood pressure response
to stress• The risk of getting coronary heart
disease
Typical GHQ mental-strain questions
Have you recently:
Lost much sleep over worry?Felt constantly under strain?Felt you could not overcome your difficulties?Been feeling unhappy and depressed?Been losing confidence in yourself?Been thinking of yourself as a worthless person?
New Perspectives on Job GHQ stress scores, BHPS, 1991-2004
10
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11
11.2
11.4
11.6
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Time
GH
G S
core
AllWorking
Job satisfaction is trended down
�
�
�
�
� ��
�
�
��
�
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20024.95
5.15
5.35
5.55
5.75
Average
Why?
• It is not because of increases in job insecurity.
• Instead, there seems to have been a noticeable rise in work intensity and tiredness.
ISSP international data on work-life balance
“If you could change the way you spend your time, how would you…?”
“… I would like to spend much more time with my family” (% workers)
USA 46% New Zealand 26%Great Britain 36% Switzerland 23%Sweden 32% Italy 21%Norway 27% Netherlands 18%Denmark 26% Japan 9%Canada 26% Spain 8%
Source: Blanchflower and Oswald (2000a) and Interna tional Social Survey Programme, 1997
New Perspectives on Job
This work-life balance problem is greatest among:
• The middle-aged• Those with high
educational qualifications• Men
The proportion in the Labour Force Survey who report “depression, bad nerves or anxiety” is going up:
1998 0.9%2002 1.4%2006 1.7%
The UK’s ranking on job satisfaction
We rank below
Denmark SwedenNetherlands IrelandLuxembourg USAAustria New ZealandNorway SwitzerlandFinland Germany
New Perspectives on Job
A taste of well-being research (1)
Happiness is high among:
WomenPeople with lots of friendsThe young and oldMarried and cohabiting peopleThe highly educatedThe healthyThose with high income
A taste of well-being research (2)
Happiness is particularly low among:
The unemployedNewly divorced and separated people
and children have no effect on happiness
The pattern of a typical person’s happiness through life
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
15-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70Age group
Ave
rage
life
sat
isfa
ctio
n sc
ore
This holds in many settings
For example, we see the same age pattern in the probability of depression among a recent sample of 800,000 UK citizens:
[Blanchflower and Oswald, 2006]
New Perspectives on Job The probability of depression by ageMales, LFS data set 2004-2006
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Year of birth
Reg
ress
ion
coef
ficie
nt
New Perspectives on Job
-0.014
-0.012
-0.01
-0.008
-0.006
-0.004
-0.002
0
0.002
1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Depression by age among females: LFS data 2004-2006Q2
Year of birth
Reg
ress
ion
coef
ficie
nt
The state of the mind determines the health of the body
Those with high status live longer(being promoted seems more important than a healthy diet and exercise)
Married people are healthier (marriage offsets smoking)
Comparing two years before divorce to two years after, there is marked improvement in psychological health.
We use a GHQ mental strain score.
Divorce eventually makes people happier
12.98
14.2514.85
12.4211.98
11.6912.27
17.20
13.07
11.77
10.92 10.95 11.00 11.06 11.08
10.0
012
.00
14.0
016
.00
18.0
0M
ean
GH
Q S
core
−2 −1 0 1 2Time
Divorce Widowed Remain marriedEvent at time 0
Data Source: BHPS
Mean GHQ Mental Stress LevelsLead−Lag Analysis for Marital Transitions
When a nation is poor, extra riches will raise happiness.
Say we look at a scatter plot across many countries:
TZA
NGA
UGA
MDA
BGD
PAKGEO
VNM
ZWE
IND
ARM
IDN
AZE
MAR
EGY
PHL
JOR
ALB
CHN
UKR
SLV
PER
VEN
BLR
BIHDZA
COL
TUR
MKD
IRN
DOM
ROMBGR
URYBRA
RUS
MEX
LVA
CHL
ZAF
HRV
LTU
POL
ARG
ESTSVK
HUN
CZE
KOR
MLT
PRTSVN
GRC
ISRESP
NZL
SGP
SWEGBRITA
FIN
JPN
FRA
DEUBEL
NLDAUTISLCAN
CHEDNK
USA
IRL
NORLUX
Australia
4
5
6
7
8
Life
Sat
isfa
ctio
n, W
VS
Ave
rage
Sco
re (
1='D
issa
tisfie
d' to
10=
'Sat
isfie
d')
2000 5000 10000 20000 35000 60000GDP per capita in US$ at PPP (log scale)
Life Satisfaction = -0.9 + 0.8 * Log GDP (t=8.3)World Values Survey
Life Satisfaction and GDP Per Capita
Yet
• Growth in income is now not correlated with growth in happiness
• This is the “Easterlin paradox”
Well-being is flat through time in lots of rich countries
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1973 1977 1980 1983 1986 1988 1990 1993 1996 2000 2004
Year
Ave
rag
e Li
fe S
atis
fact
ion
UK France Germany Italy Netherlands
and
In the USA, real income levels have risen six-fold over 100 years but:
Year 1900 Suicide rate = 10 in 100,000 people
Year 2005 Suicide rate = 10 in 100,000 people
In the USA, both job satisfaction (scale 1-4) and happiness (scale 1-3) have been flat since 1972
New Perspectives on Job
New Perspectives on Job Figure 7. Job Satisfaction and Happiness, USA (General Social Surveys)
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Time
Mea
n sc
ores
Job satisfactionHappiness
1995/2000 World Values Survey resultsLife Satisfaction
World Values Survey
Tanz
Nig
Uga
MOL
BAN
PAK
ZIM
Vietnam
India
MOR
ARM
ALB
SALV Ven
Ukr
Alg
MacBela
Bosn
Colombia
Dom
Iran
Bulgaria
Bra
Rom
Uru
Mexico
Rus
S.AFR
Chile
Lat
CROA
Arg
Lit
ESTSloHun
MALT
CzePORTSlovenia
GRE
New Zealand
Isr Spa SINGerItaly
FRA
SWEFin
Australia UKBelgCan
DenNetherlands Austria ICESwi
NorUS
Irl
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)
IND
EX
the western countries
Similar results within a nation(though cardinality questionable)
Take American families in 1994 for example
Some clues…
• Social comparison (you compare your 3 BMWs to people with 3 BMWs)
• Habituation: people adapt to money
• Mistaken choices (long commutes and working hours)
Possible ideas
• Envy and social comparisons are counter-productive at the aggregate level
• Some argue for a ‘ corrective tax ’ system –one that reduces work effort to a level where the fruitless incentive to raise your relative income has been fully offset (Frank and Layard)
• In terms of positional goods, e.g. luxury cars – could be taxed much more
119
12
77
19
24 25
33
28
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Sweden
Germany
France
UK EU15
Women
Men
Another difficulty: Long working hours in the EU
Graph 1: % of employees working over 45 hours per w eek
Source: European Working Conditions Survey, 2000
Practical points
• Commuting takes a severe toll on people.
• A coordinated slowing-down would be valuable.
• Giving employees as much autonomy as possible is beneficial.
Summing up
Given our current real income levels:
Growth is not making the industrialized nations happier.
One natural conclusion
Policy in the coming century will need to concentrate on non-materialistic goals.
One natural conclusion
Policy in the coming century will need to concentrate on non-materialistic goals.
GNH not GNP.