Woodrow Wilson Center15 January 2009

Urban socio-ecological systems and environmental transitions in the Asia Pacific Region

Peter J. MarcotullioDistinguished Lecturer, CUNY, NYAdjunct Senior Fellow, UNU-IAS

Outline of seminar

• Concepts– Urban environmental transitions– Adding differences in historical experiences – Adding a socio-ecological system perspective

• Comparative urban socio-ecological transitions

• Conclusion– Implications for local and global sustainability– Implications for policies

Concepts

The Urban Environmental Transition

• Environmental transition theory suggests that as cities increase in wealth they undergo a series of environmental burdens that shift in type (from health threatening to ecosystem threatening), temporal scale (from immediate to delayed impacts) and geographic scale (from local to global);

What is the relationship between increasing wealth and environmental conditions in cities?

Source: McGranahan et al, 2001

Examples of environmental trends with increasing wealth

Source: World Bank, 1992

• Urban environmental transition theory is a powerful tool for understanding the changes in environmental burdens associated with different levels of development. It is a major advance over the notion of the environmental Kuznet’s curve (EKC), as it addresses issues of scale of impact and accommodates different relationships between economic development and environmental conditions

Summary and limitations of the urban environmental transition theory

• Two limitations of the concept are: 1) it does not distinguish changes in the transition experience over time; and 2) it shifts attention from one type of burden to another over time, space and wealth, assuming that all different types of burdens follow similar trends of specific types at similar scales.

Summary and limitations of the urban environmental transition theory

Differentiating historical experiences

How have transitions been altered: Time- and space-related effects

• The contemporary development context, including “globalization,” has facilitated the impacts of time-space effects. These effects are the result of changing speed, timing and efficiency of human activities and the increasingly uneven location/concentration of social phenomena in space

• Generally, development conditions are forcing a spatial convergence and temporal divergence

Environmental conditions in developing economies are occurring sooner (at lower levels of income) changing faster (over time) and emerging in a more simultaneous fashion (as sets of challenges) than had previously been experienced by the now developed world;

Environmental transitions therefore, have been significantly altered;

Differences between developed and rapidly developing urban environmental experiences

Three curves Developed world experience

GDP/capita

GDP/capita

GDP/capita

GDP/capita

GDP/capita

Environmental harm

Environmental harm

Environmental harm

Environmental harm

Environmental harm

Source: Marcotullio and Lee, 2003 after McGranahan et al, 2001; Smith, 1990; Smith and Lee, 1993

Rapidly-developing world experience

Adding socio-ecological conditions

Socio-ecological systems

• “Human” and “environmental” or “ecological” spheres of interaction can been thought of as coupled systems or socio-ecological systems (SES), sometimes also called “coupled human and natural systems (CHANS)”;

• Activities and changes in one sphere are dependent upon and interact with elements and processes in the other (concept of ecological service);

Selected studies based upon SES fundamentals

Source: Liu et al, 2007

Program Name

Dynamics of Couple d Natura l and Human Systems

Beijer International Institute for Ecological Economics

Resilienc e Alliance

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Focus Complex interactions among human and natural systems at diverse spatia l, temporal, and organizational scales

Ecological economics

Research o n the dynamic s of comple x adaptive systems in order to discover foundations for sustainability

Assessment of scientific, technica l, and socioecon omic information to understand climate change, its impacts and choices for adaptation, and mitigation

An international progra m assessing condit ions and consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and options for responding to those change s

Major funding source

U.S. National Science Found ation

Kjell and Marta Beijer Found ation

Diverse gra nts from private foundations

World Meteorological Organiz ation and United Nations Environment Programme

Multiple sources

Duration 2000Špresent 1991Špresent 1999Špresent 1988Špresent 2001Š2005

Local socio-ecological urban trends

• Some local issues, such as soil conditions, continue to deteriorate with advanced urban activities. For example, soil contamination is cumulative and changes in the local hydrological system continue to need management and intervention

• Other local ecological trends differentiate. For example, biodiversity largely, but not always, responds negatively to urban land use change and activities. Moreover, changes in flora and fauna continue even in large dense wealthy urban settlements

Adding both changes in development context and socio-ecological system

approach to urban environmental transition theory: Comparisons between the

experiences of the North and Asia Pacific region

Comparative impacts: Asia Pacific and the “North”

• Urban SESs in the Asia Pacific are unique (compared to the experiences of the now developed world) in the following ways:– The speed of SES change is more rapid than

previously experienced;– Socio-ecological changes are being experienced

sooner in the development process than in the past– Previously experienced sequential socio-ecological

relationships associated with impact-responses are now experienced simultaneously

– Local ecological impacts are greater than previously experienced

– Global ecological impacts are less intensive per capita, but potentially larger in absolute size

Comparative speed of change

• Changes are more rapid than previously experienced;– National economic growth rates in wealth are

unprecedented– Speed of urbanization is faster in many Asia

Pacific nations when compared to the developed world

– Urban growth rates are more rapid– Growth in energy supply is faster

Comparison in speed of increases in energy supply: USA and selected Asian economies

Source: Marcotullio and Schulz 2007

Sooner comparative impacts

• Changes are being experienced sooner in the development process than in the past– Technologies are diffusing at lower levels of

income– Major development patterns, such as

urbanization, are occurring at lower levels of income

– Ecological degradation, such as transportation CO2 emissions, is occurring at lower levels of income

– Diets are changing at lower levels of income

Source: Marcotullio, Williams and Marshall, 2005

Comparative emergence of transportation CO2 emissions

Average daily consumption per Capita by GDP Comparison of Caloric Intake by GDP per Capita

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

3000

3300

3600

3900

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

GDP per capita (G-K International dollars)

Ca

lori

es

pe

r d

ay

pe

r c

ap

ita China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Viet Nam

United States of America

More simultaneous comparative impacts

• Previously experienced sequential development patterns are now experienced simultaneously

• Sets of multi-scale environmental conditions within urban populations of different income in the region

• Multi-scale urban water related conditions in Southeast Asia appear is cities at all levels of income

Sets of urban water related issues by scale within urban regions of ASEAN

City Local Metro-wide Regional and global

Low-income citiesLow levels water supply coverage River and coastal water pollution Economic water scarcityLow levels of sanitation coverage Overdrawn groundwater Vulnerability due to climate change

Poor drainage SubsistenceCoastal area degradation

FloodingMiddle-income cities

Low levels of water supply coverage River and coastal water pollution Economic water scarcityLow levels of sanitation coverage Overdrawn groundwater Vulnerability due to climate change

Poor drainage SubsistenceCoastal area degradation

Flooding

Upper-middle income citiesLow levels to incomplete sanitation coverage River and coastal water pollution Increasing water consumption per capita

Water supply coverage not complete Overdrawn groundwater Vulnerability due to climate changepoor to inadequate drainage Subsistence

Coastal area degradationFlooding

High income citiesRiver and coastal water pollution Physical water scarcity

Coastal area degradation Increasing water consumption per capitaVulnerability due to climate change

Notes:Cities in low income category include Vientiane, Phnom Phen, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, among othersCities in the middle income category include Manila, Jakarta, among othersCities in the upper-middle income category include Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, among othersCities in the high income category include Singapore Source: Marcotullio 2007

Local ecological comparative impacts

• Changes in local impacts are more ecologically damaging than previously experienced:– Soil are seemingly more contaminated at

lower levels of income– Greater consumption levels within cities in

terms of building materials

Global comparative impacts

• Some changes are less intensive per capita, but potentially larger in absolute value – For some nations in the region

transportation-related CO2 emissions are lower then previously experienced

– Total CO2 emissions per capita are lower than some developed countries at all levels of GDP

Comparative changes in CO2 emissions per capita by GDP

Source: Marcotullio and Schulz 2007

Cumulative impact may be larger

According to the World Bank, by 2030, there will be approximately 1.2 billion middle class consumers in developing countries, up from around 400 million in 2000

The Goldman Saks, BRICS report suggests that by 2040 in China and India alone, another 800 million cars will be in use, which will double the 2000 number of automobiles in the world

In rapidly growing economies, such as China, India and Brazil (~2.6 billion people), consumption of red meat has risen 33 percent in the last decade

Conclusions

Conclusions Implications for UET theory

• While urban environmental transition theory is powerful it needs to be modified to include socio-ecological linkages and difference in development experiences

• It describes historical experiences in the now developed world better than what is happening in the rapidly developing and poor economies

Conclusions Implications for UET theory

• Local ecological conditions do not follow the patterns associated with changes in local environmental health issues. Moreover, they may be becoming more intense

• Activities that impact global ecosystems, however, seem to be responding to technological, social and political changes and are becoming less intense (per capita)

Conclusions Implications for Asia Pacific local and global

sustainability

• Within rapidly developing Asia Pacific cities local environmental health and ecological changes need more attention

• The cumulative impacts of the local ecosystem changes may be as important if not more than the global impacts. Particularly important are local consumption decisions, which include everything from food choices to building styles

ConclusionsImplications for policies

• The changing dynamics within SESs require different responses from those implemented previously. For example, policies advocating compact cities and concentrated decentralization need re-thinking when applied to rapidly developing Asian economies

Conclusions Implications for policies

• Shifts may increase threats of “unresolved” challenges

• Integrated policy solutions for environmental issues are increasingly emerging from developing nations and cities. Consider, for example:– BRT systems– Congestion pricing– Micro-financing– Tetra-pak recycling– Urban agriculture

Conclusions

• Whether developing world urban SESs will become more resilient in the face of further ecological degradation, increased potential for surprises and abrupt changes will depend upon a number of complex interactions that are not yet the focus of much needed research

Urban socio-ecological systems and urban environmental transitions in the Asia Pacific Region

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