Wm. S. Hart Union High School District · 2015-07-03 · Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Valencia, California Student Population Projections Report (By Residence) Fall 2014-2020

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District

Valencia, California

Student Population Projections Report

(By Residence)

Fall 2014-2020

(Based on Fall 2013 Data)

Prepared by Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. 11850 Pierce Street, Suite 200 Riverside, California 92505

Phone: (951)-270-5211 Fax: (951) 270-5212

www.DavisDemographics.com

March 14, 2014

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Fall 2013 Projection Report

March 14, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Executive Summary Section One: Methodology Sources of Data ............................................................................................... 1 Seven Year Projection Methodology ......................................................... 5 Applying the Variables to Generate the Projections .............................. 14

Section Two: Planned Residential Development Planned Residential Development ..................................................................... 16 Map: Future Development in District ........................................................... 18 Residential Development Summary Report.............................................. 19 Planned Residential Development List....................................................... 20

Section Three: Attendance Matrices Attendance Matrices ...................................................................................... 21 Middle School (7th-8th) Attendance Matrix (new boundaries) ................. 23 High School (9th-10thgrade) Attendance Matrix (new boundaries)......... 24 High School (11th-12th) Attendance Matrix (old boundaries) .................. 25

Section Four: District-Wide Student Projections Seven Year Projection Summaries .............................................................. 26 District-Wide Student Projection Summary .............................................. 27 Fall 2013-Fall 2020 Chart: Historical K-6, 7-8 and 9-12 Enrollment ........................................... 28 Chart: Historical and Projection Hart 7-12 Students ................................. 29 District-Wide Student Projection Trends ................................................... 30 Section Five: Middle School Attendance Area Projections Middle School (7-8) Attendance Area Trends .......................................... 31 Table: Middle School (7-8) Projections by Attendance Area .................. 31 Individual Middle School Attendance Area Analysis .............................. 33-35 Middle School (7-8) Conclusions ................................................................ 35

Section Six: High School Attendance Area Projections High School (9-12) Attendance Area Trends............................................ 36 Table: District 7-12 Transition Plan for New Attendance Boundaries ... 36 Table: District Castaic Area 9-12 Transition Plan ........................................ 37 Transition Projections for the High School Attendance Areas ............. 39 Individual High School Attendance Area Analysis .................................. 41-45 High School (9-12) Conclusions .................................................................. 46 Section Seven: Opportunity for Learning (OFL) Students The Fall 2013 “Opportunity for Learning” Students ............................... 48


March 14, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Individual Figures and Inserts Table 1 – Student Accounting Summaries (Fall 2013) .......................................................................... 2-3 Table 2 – Birth Factors by Feeder District Boundaries ......................................................................... 6 Map 1 – Zip Codes Corresponding to the Feeder Districts ................................................................ 7 Table 3 – Mobility Factors........................................................................................................................... 9 Table 4 – Student Yield Factors ................................................................................................................. 12 Chart 1 – Projections by “Residence” Flowchart .................................................................................. 15 Map 2 – Active Residential Development Projects Over the Next 7 Years .................................... 18 Residential Development Summary Table (Fall 2013 – Fall 2020)..................................................... 19 Planned Residential Development List ..................................................................................................... 20 Junior High School (7-8) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix ......................................................................... 23 High School (9th- 10th grade only) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix (new boundaries) ....................... 24 High School (11th-12th) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix (old boundaries) ............................................. 25 District-wide Projection Summary (Fall 2013 – Fall 2020) .................................................................. 27 Chart 2 – Historical K-6, 7-8 and 9-12 Enrollment .................................................................................. 28 Chart 3 – Historical and Projected 7-12 Enrollment .............................................................................. 29 Table 5 – Middle School - Current and Projected Counts by Attendance Area ............................. 31 Map of the Current Middle School (7-8) Attendance Areas with Various Projection Intervals (Using Projections by "Residence") .................................. 32 Table 6 – Transition Plan for the New 7-12 Boundaries ....................................................................... 36 Table 7 – High School Assigned for the 9-12 Grade Castaic Area Students ................................... 37 Map of the “New” High School (9-12) Attendance Areas with Various Projection Intervals (Using Projections by "Residence") .................................. 38 Transition Projections for the High School Attendance Areas ............................................................ 39 Table 8 –Opportunity for Learning 7-12 Student Breakdown ............................................................. 48

APPENDICES

Appendix A: Study Area Projections School Codes ................................................................................................... 49 Table: Elementary School Attendance Areas and Their Study Areas.. 50 Map: Study Area Map .................................................................................... 51 Table: HS School Attendance Areas and Their Study Areas With Current (“Old”) JHS & HS Boundaries ................................... 52 Map: Hart District Map with Current (“Old”) HS Boundaries ............... 53 Table: JHS & HS School Attendance Areas and Their Study Areas With New JHS & HS Boundaries ....................................................... 54 Map: Hart District Map with New JHS & HS Boundaries ...................... 55 Study Area Resident Projections (double-sided) .................................... 56-233

Appendix B: Attendance Area Projections (Based on Both “Old” and “New” Boundaries) Junior High School Projections by Residence ......................................... 234-236 High School Projections by Residence, Based on “Old” Boundaries ...................................................... 237-240 High School Projections by Residence Based on “New” Boundaries .................................................... 241-244

Appendix C: Student Yield Factors and Attendance Area Demographic Studies Student Yield Factor Worksheet *Housing Profile (District-wide)

*Demographic and Income Profile Report (District-wide)

*The Third Party Demographic Reports are prepared using ESRI’s Community Analyst Online (CAO). Reports are created by overlaying the William S. Hart Union High School District boundary onto the ESRI CAO data These reports are for informational purposes only; DDP is not responsible for the accuracy of the data.


March 14, 2014 INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

The William S. Hart Union High School District (the District/the Hart High School District) has contracted with Davis Demographics & Planning (DDP) to update a demographic study that forecasts future student counts over the next seven years. The reasons for conducting this study include tracking the following issues: enrollment patterns, residential development activity, an evaluation of future site requirements, and the impact of recent attendance boundary changes. DDP has contacted, acquired and compiled the most current (representing late September/early October 2013) student data for the four (4) elementary school districts in the Hart High School District jurisdiction: Castaic Union School District (K-8), Newhall School District (K-6), Saugus School District (K-6), and the Sulphur Springs School District (K-6) as well as all of the 7-12 students attending the Hart High School District. [Please see Appendix A, page 49 for a listing of all elementary, intermediate and high schools in existence at the time of this report.] The main purpose of including the elementary student data is to keep track of the incoming students as they pass on through the grades over the next seven years. In addition to the student data, DDP has updated its database of planned housing information to reflect the most current development trends in the Santa Clarita Valley.

The purpose of this report is to identify and inform the District of the trends occurring in the community; how these trends may affect future student population; and to assist in illustrating facility adjustments that may be necessary to accommodate the potential student population shifts. The District can then use this information to better plan for the need, location and timing of facility or boundary adjustments.

From 2003-2005, the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District opened two new middle schools (Rio Norte and Rancho Pico) and two new high schools (Golden Valley and West Ranch). The District now hopes to open its first high school in the Castaic area in time for the Fall 2015 school year. The School Board for the Hart District recently approved new attendance boundaries that take effect starting Fall 2010 beginning with 7th grade and then adding a school grade each year until all six grades (7th-12th) and will be in full effect by Fall 2015. The District’s middle schools fully adopted the new boundaries in Fall 2011 and they will finally reach the high schools starting for 9th grade in 2012. In addition, starting in Fall 2010, the Hart District will now house all incoming 9th grade students from the Castaic area at Valencia HS until the new school is built in the Castaic area (at this point it is anticipated to open by Fall 2017 as 9th grade only to start, then add grades for the next three). The District asked DDP to generate a separate set of projections to help them anticipate this “transition period” for the implementation of these new boundaries (over the next two years) and the housing of the Castaic area high school students (over the next 3-6 years). Data pertinent to the “transition period” for these new boundaries are included in this study.

The Sources of Data section details where the two sources of data, geographic and non-geographic, are collected and how each data item is used in the seven-year student population projection model. The Seven Year Projection Methodology section discusses in detail how the factors used in the study were calculated and why they were used. These factors include: the calculation of incoming kindergarten classes, additional students from new housing (referred to as student yield), the effects of student mobility, and a detailed review of planned residential development within the District.


March 14, 2014 INTRODUCTION

The Student Resident Projection Summary sections are a review of Fall 2013’s student resident projection results. Included in these sections are a district-wide student population projection summary and a projected resident student population summary for each existing attendance area and study area.

While reading this report, it is important to remember that this is a snapshot of current and potential student population based upon data gathered in Fall 2013. Population demographics change, development plans change, funding opportunities can change, District priorities can change, and therefore, new projections and adjustments to the overall Master Plan will continue to be necessary in the future.


March 14, 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The following is a summary of information derived from DDP's Fall 2013 projections and come directly from the analysis segments of the report, Sections Four through Six.

As of Fall 2013 the Hart District’s 7-8 population stood at 6,862 students, about 30 more than it had at the same time in 2012 (6,831 in 2012, 6,858 in 2011, 6,961 in 2010, 7,074 7-8 students in 2009 and 7,321 in 2008). There are six Hart District junior high schools which averages out to 1,144 7-8 students per site. The projections in this report have the District’s 7-8 population declining for the next two years (6,625 by 2015) as smaller grade classes enter from the elementary schools. From 2016 to 2020 the middle school grades then incrementally increase as more new residential development kicks in. By Fall 2020, Hart’s middle school population may once again be approaching 7,000 7-8 students.

Focusing on only the 9-12 student counts, the Hart District began the Fall 2010 school year with 15,952 high school students living within its boundary and attending one of its schools. This marked the first decline in the District’s high schools over the last two decades. In Fall 2011, the 9-12 student population rebounded slightly, rising up nearly 100 more students to reach a new high of 16,051, but in 2012 that figure dropped back down to 15,857 resident 9-12 students. In 2013, the 9-12 resident population dropped once again, by 106 students, to 15,751. It appears that the District’s 9-12 student population might have reached its peak in Fall 2009 with a total count of 16,143 resident 9-12 students. Larger incoming 9th grade class sizes coupled with the increase of students from new housing had been the main reasons for the growth that the Hart District had experienced at the high school level over the past twenty years. The downturn in the new housing construction about 6-7 years ago has finally started to reach the high school grades in recent years. Middle School (7-8) Conclusions

Clearly, the Hart District accomplished what it set out to do when it readjusted its middle school boundaries in 2010. With the advent of the boundary changes, which took full effect in the middle schools starting in 2011, coupled with the continuing decline in the 7-8 student populations, each of the District’s six middle schools show manageable resident figures over the next seven years (ranging from as low as 810 7-8 for Rancho Pico JHS in 2017 to as high as 1,368 7-8 students in La Mesa JHS by Fall 2019).

The seven-year projections show 7-8 student growth within two of the Hart District’s six junior high schools, while the others show stability or some sharp declines. This report uses the 1,250-mark as the “ideal” size for all existing and future junior high schools. Currently, the District houses 6,876 7-8 students, which averages out to 1,146 7-8 students at its six junior high schools (down from the 1,214 average in 2009). According to the projections, the 7-8 student population could drop to around 6,625 by Fall 2015 and then see increases through Fall 2020 (6,968 in 2020, including out-of-District students) when new large housing projects may begin. If recent trends continue then it appears that the Hart District will not need to build another middle school over the next seven years. With the changes to the six junior high school boundaries, it appears that the Hart District has



successfully prevented any of the sites from exceeding their capacities over the next seven years.

All of the potential new housing units still point to the eventual need for at least a seventh junior high school site, clearly required after the scope of the seven-year projections (after Fall 2020). Likely locations for additional 7-8 sites are at least one in the Newhall Ranch project area, one in northeastern portion of the District (somewhere in the Vasquez Canyon area) and/or possibly one in the southeastern region of the District. High School (9-12) Conclusions

Currently, the main issue of concern is housing the high school population in the Castaic area for the next five years. Currently, the Castaic area contains 1,490 9-12 students (up a bit from the 1,478 it had in 2012, there were 1,571 9-12 students in 2009) and should continue to see a decline in its population through Fall 2017, where it may drop down close to as low as 1,275 9-12 students and then see some small increases. In previous projection reports (about 5 years ago) there had been a large amount of growth in the Castaic area. However, with the changes in the economy, completion of certain housing projects, drastic declines in new housing sales and various large projects being delayed or removed altogether, this has resulted in a sharp reduction in the potential growth in the Castaic area for the next seven years.

There are other pressing issues that face the Hart District including how it will house the projected resident counts for Saugus, Valencia and Golden Valley HS’s over the next seven years. At its peak, Saugus High School housed over 2,700 9-12 students (2,738 in 2005) and Valencia HS once housed 3,503 students in 2003. Policy changes regarding restricting or limiting transfers into these schools may be necessary. In addition, the relocation of certain programs from the Valencia and Saugus campuses may also be required. Currently, 18.5% (486 9-12 students) of Saugus HS’s students “transfer out” to go to another District facility and 19.0% (428 9-12 students) of Valencia’s students go elsewhere. Golden Valley HS actually has the District’s highest “transfer out” rate; nearly 25% of its students (585!) go to another District school. The District seems to want to cap Golden Valley’s enrollment to around 2,200. So if all of these transfer trends are allowed to continue and the District implements some of the other actions mentioned above, then the District should be able to manage the enrollment over the next seven years at these three schools.

Focusing on the last three years of the projections (Fall 2018-2020) you could start to see a pattern where additional high schools could eventually be needed just beyond the scope of these projections (after 2020). With the projected growth for the Canyon, Golden Valley and Saugus High School areas, another high school site (#8) may eventually be needed either in the northeast or southeast portion of the District. The Newhall Ranch project is expected to start producing large amounts of new students by 2018 and should continue for another 15-20 years. Newhall Ranch, the remainder of Stevenson Ranch and the housing to be built around Magic Mountain (Entrada) points towards a need for another high school site (#9) on the west side of the District, somewhere within the current West Ranch High School boundary, again sometime beyond the 2020 timeframe of this report.



The Hart District will need to closely monitor the housing sales and growth in student population to determine which one of these future sites may be needed first and when. The potential in new housing sales is so great, that if the market makes a sharp recovery, this could have a drastic impact on the Santa Clarita Valley and its student population. But for now, the slowdown in new housing sales is expected to continue for a number of years and play a large part in keeping the projections lower than in demographic reports from years past.

The order in which a particular school is constructed can be adjusted due to shifting demographic trends, changes in the economy and the unpredictability of the housing market. Therefore the exact timing and order of construction of any new school facility is subject to change.


March 14, 2014 Section One – Page 1

SECTION ONE – METHODOLOGY

SOURCES OF DATA Geographic Map Data Five geographic data layers were updated for use in the seven-year student population projections:

1. Street Centerline Database 2. Study Areas 3. Schools 4. Students – Historical and Current 5. Planned Residential Development

1) Street Centerline Data DDP has licensed a digital street centerline map of the School District. The street database has associated attributes that contains, but are not limited to, the following fields: full street name, address range and street classification.

The main function of the streets is in the geo-coding process of the student data. Each student is address matched to the streets by their given address. The geo-coding process places a point on the map for every student in the exact location that student resides. This enables DDP to analyze the student data in a geographic manner.

Another vital utilization of the digital street database is in the construction of study areas. Freeways, major streets and neighborhood streets are used as boundaries for the study areas. 2) Study Areas Study areas are small geographic areas and the building blocks of a school district; they are similar to neighborhoods. Study areas are geographically defined following logical boundaries of the neighborhood, such as: freeways, streets, railroad tracts, rivers, etc... Each study area is then coded with the elementary, middle and high school that the area is assigned to attend. By gathering information about the district at the study area level, you can closely monitor growth and demographic trends in particular regions and spot potential need for boundary changes or new facilities. 3) Schools The District provided school facility location information to DDP for the purpose of mapping the District facilities. 4) Student Data

a. Historical Student Data - Historical enrollment is used to compare past student population growth and trends as well as the effects of mobility (move in, move out from existing housing) throughout the District. DDP utilized the 4 previous year's (2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013) address matched students as historical data.



b. Current Student Data - Student data files were collected by DDP for the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District and its four feeder districts (Castaic Union School District, Newhall School District, Saugus School District and the Sulphur Springs Union Elementary School District) from late September 2013 to early-October 2013, all close to the CBEDS date (10/2/2013). These five separate student data files were compiled and summarized by grade level and by Study Area and then used as a base for the projections contained in this report. Existing students were categorized by Study area through the address matching process that locates each student within a particular area based upon their given address (this process is called “geocoding”). The projections run each of the next seven years from Fall 2014 through Fall 2020.

The Student Accounting Summary (Table 1, below) indicates the total student enrollment for each of the five school districts for files that were received on a variety of dates in 2013 (from late September to early October) and the number of students used in the seven-year student projections by residence. According to the four districts, each of the files provided to DDP are to represent their enrollment as close to the CBEDS date as possible (10/2/13). Once again, the projections by “residence” are based where the students live and exclude students residing outside of the District’s boundaries, and students unable to be address matched (due to incomplete address information).

Table 1

Student Accounting Summaries

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District (7th-12th grade) Fall 2013/2014 Actual Enrollment (received 10/2/2013)

Total Students Provided by District File (representing 10/2/2013) 22,763 Students Living completely outside of Hart District area -98 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -8 Students with a grade of “US” (Transition Learning Center) -59 HART 7-12 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 22,598

Castaic Union School District (K-8th grade) Fall 2013/14 Actual Enrollment (received 9/27/2013)

Total Students Provided by District File (representing late Sept. 2013) 2,692 Pre-K Students (not involved in the study, removed from the projections) -39 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -14 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -1 Transitional Kindergarten students -56 CASTAIC K-8 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 2,582



Table 1– Student Accounting Summaries (cont’d.)

Newhall School District (K-6th grade) Fall 2012/2013 Actual Enrollment (received 10/2/2013)

Total Students Provided by District File (representing 10/2/2013) 6,828 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -26 Transitional Kindergarten students -136 NEWHALL K-6 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 6,666

Saugus School District (K-6th grade)

Fall 2012/2013 Actual Enrollment (received 10/7/2013)

Total Students Provided by District File (representing early Oct. 2013) 10,132 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -69 Transitional Kindergarten students -128 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -48 SAUGUS K-6 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 9,887

Sulphur Springs Union Elementary School District (K-6th grade) Fall 2013/2014 Actual Enrollment (9/27 through 10/4/2013)

Total Students Provided by District Files 5,567 Pre-K Students (not involved in the study, removed from the projections) -71 Students Living completely outside of the Hart District area -41 Students Unable to be mapped (due to incomplete address information) -4 Transitional Kindergarten students -74 SULPHUR SPRINGS K-6 STUDENTS USED IN PROJECTIONS 5,377

5) Planned Residential Development - This data was obtained through discussions with the District and major developers within the District boundaries. Data includes development name, location, housing type, total number of units and projected move in dates (phasing). Phasing for planned housing is factored into the seven-year projections. (See Section Two for a detailed listing of the planned residential development). In the student population projection DDP includes all Approved and Tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated annually.



Non-Geographic Data Three basic sets of non-geographic data were compiled and reviewed for use in the seven-year student population projections by residence:

1. Births by Zip Code 2. Mobility Factors 3. Student Yield Factors

1) Births by Zip Code Data - Birth data by postal zip code was obtained from the California State Department of Health for the years 2007-2011 and roughly correlated to the four feeder districts to the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District. Past changes in historical birthrates are used to estimate incoming kindergarten student population from existing housing. Birth data for 2012 was not yet available at the time of this report. 2) Mobility Factors - Mobility refers to the increase/decrease in the migration of students within the District boundary (move-in/move-out of students from existing housing). Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage of increase/decrease among each grade for every year of the projections. The Mobility Factors help account for the net effect of the migration of families into and out of the District from existing homes in established neighborhoods. Mobility Factors help account for housing “resales,” renter migration and dropouts.

3) Student Yield Factors (SYF’s) –It was part of this year’s contact to have DDP update the District’s Student Yield Factors (SYF’s) so DDP calculated these numbers using a housing count of existing dwelling units throughout the District for a five-year period (2008-2013). This survey included three main housing types: Single-Family Detached (SFD), Multi-Family Attached (MFA) [townhomes, condominiums, duplexes, triplexes, quads] and Apartments (APT). These factors, combined with planned residential development units are used to determine the number of students generated from new residential housing development projects. Student Yield Factor calculations will be discussed again in the Seven Year Projection Methodology section.



SEVEN YEAR PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

The projection methodology used in this study combines historical student population figures, past and present demographic characteristics, and planned residential development to forecast future student population at the study area level. District-wide projections are summarized from the individual study area projections. These projections are based on where the students reside and where they should be attending school. We use the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate estimate of where future school facilities should be located. The best way to plan for future student population shifts is to know where the next group of students will be residing. The following details the methodology used in preparing the student population projections by residence. Seven-Year Projections

Projections are calculated out seven years from the date of projection for several reasons. The planning horizon for any type of facility is typically no less than five years, often longer. Seven years are sufficient to adequately plan for a new facility. It is a short to mid term solution for planning needs. Projections beyond seven years are based on speculation due to the lack of reliable information on birthrates, new home construction, economic conditions etc. Why Projections are Calculated by Residence

Typically, school district projections are based on enrollment by school. However, this method is inadequate when used to locate future school facility needs, because the location of the students is not taken into consideration. A school’s enrollment can fluctuate due to variables in the curriculum, program changes, school administration and open enrollment policies. These variables can skew the apparent need for new or additional facilities in an area.

The method used by DDP is unique because it modifies a standard cohort projection with demographic factors and actual student location. DDP bases it’s projections on the belief that school facility planning is more accurate when facilities are located where the greatest number of students reside.

The best way to plan for future schools is to know where the next group of students will be coming from. The following details the methodology used in preparing the student population projections. 1) Progression - Each year of the projections, 12th grade students graduate and the continuing students progress through to the next grade level. This normal progression of students is modified by the following factors:



2) Incoming Kindergarten

Live birth data is reported to the California State Department of Health by the resident postal zip code of the mother. DDP uses birth data by zip code so, if need be, a different birth factor can be applied to various areas of the District.

Incoming kindergarten classes, for existing homes, are estimated by comparing changes in past births and birthrates. Table 2, shows the total births for each of the feeder District areas using birth data collected by zip code and correlated as close as possible to the appropriate District boundary (see the map on page 7). Incoming kindergarten classes are determined by multiplying the existing kindergarten class (2013) by the percent increase/decrease in the birthrate for the year the kindergarten class was born (2008). Assuming that the Fall 2013 kindergarten class was born in 2008, DDP compared the total births in 2008 to the total births in 2009, to determine a factor for next year's kindergarten class (Fall 2014). Similarly, 2008 was compared to 2010 (Fall 2015 K class) and 2008 to 2011 (Fall 2016 K class). The birth data for 2012 was not yet available at the time of the report.

Table 2

The Birth Factor table above shows, there is expected to be a fairly consistent downward trend in the number of incoming Kindergarteners. DPP looked at the first four years of birth data for each feeder district area and made assumptions for the last four years of the projection (2017-2020). A conservative approach was used for these later years, usually averaging the previous three years. It is important not to over project the number of new kindergarteners in the final years of the projection (the birth data for the students in the later years of the projections does not exist, since the students are currently being born or are yet to be born). Please keep in mind that the Birth Factors play no role in the 9-12 grade projections and only slightly for the 7-8 grade projections during the seven-year span of the projections since the Fall 2013 Kindergartener does not reach 7th grade until Fall 2020. DDP also made adjustments (reductions) to the calculated birth factors to help to offset for the large amount of new residential development within the area during that same period, which could skew the data and for the new Transitional Kindergarten program (implemented for the first time by the feeder districts in Fall 2012/13). Adjustments to the birth factors help to reduce “double-counting.”

Birth Factors by Feeder District Boundaries

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Castaic Union SD 116.9% 110.0% 100.3% 105.5% 107.4% 105.8% 104.8%

Newhall SD 99.9% 97.6% 90.1% 93.9% 95.0% 94.2% 93.3% Saugus SD 92.4% 96.3% 88.0% 92.3% 92.3% 92.2% 91.2%

Sulphur Springs UESD 97.7% 98.6% 99.0% 98.8% 98.7% 98.8% 98.8%

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Map Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 2014

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3) Student Mobility Factors Student Mobility Factors further refine the seven-year student population projections. DDP is referring to “mobility” as the increase or decrease in the movement of students within the District boundary on an annual basis. A sampling of students living in established neighborhoods within a four year period are averaged and the resulting figures are applied to the projections as the students matriculate through the grades. High school drop-out rates, apartment movement, housing resales as well as foreclosure rates within the District are inherently built into the Mobility Factors that DDP calculates. Mobility, similar to a cohort, is applied as a percentage of increase/decrease to each grade for every year of the projections.

A sample of 299 of the total 355 study areas was selected throughout the District’s area that contains no new housing construction over the past five years. An analysis was made comparing enrollment figures from year-to-year to determine if there was a net increase or decrease of students from grade level to grade level. The sampling used was taken over a four-year period (student data from 2010 through 2013) and three groupings were averaged. For example, a comparison was made for the Fall 2010 8th student population to the Fall 2011 9th grade students within a specific study area. This comparison was also conducted for Fall 2011 & Fall 2012 and the Fall 2012 & Fall 2013 groupings. The calculations for these three paired-year comparisons were averaged and a Mobility Factor was applied for each grade transition. A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor of 1.000. A net student loss is represented by a factor less than 1.000 and a net gain by a factor greater than 1.000. The 299 study areas sampled were separated into the appropriate elementary school district and Mobility Factors were calculated for the Castaic Union School District (32 study areas), Newhall (82 study areas), Saugus (89 study areas) and Sulphur Springs Elementary Districts (96 study areas). DDP then broke down the Mobility Factors for each feeder district further, by elementary attendance area. Please see the list of all 56 study areas excluded in the mobility study following Table 3. A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor of 100%. A net student loss is represented by a factor less than 100% and a net gain by a factor greater than 100% (see example). Example: 100 6th grade students in Newhall ES’s area for Fall 2013 X 101.6 % (Newhall ES’s area 6th to 7th grade mobility factor) = 101.6 Newhall ES’s area 7th grade students in Fall 2014

Having historical student data categorized by Study area is extremely helpful in calculating accurate Student Mobility Factors. DDP was able to utilize the last four year’s (Fall 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013) student data. The 2010 student data was compared to 2011, 2011 to 2012, and 2012 to the 2013 student data at the Study area level for each elementary attendance area.

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District SY 2013/2014 Report

Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Section One - Page 9

TABLE 3 - MOBILITY FACTORS

CASTAIC MOBILITY FACTOTRSMF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12

Castaic ES 1.045 1.004 1.038 1.008 0.958 0.993 1.023 0.969 1.034 0.963 0.978 1.010Live Oak ES 0.930 1.029 0.976 0.907 0.963 1.000 0.985 1.023 1.000 0.982 0.996 1.064

Northlake Hills ES 1.017 0.988 0.983 0.987 0.977 0.985 0.980 0.984 1.000 0.967 0.968 0.991

NEWHALL MOBILITY FACTOTRSMF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12

Newhall District-wide 1.049 1.011 1.004 0.991 1.002 1.010 0.987 1.005 1.020 0.994 0.996 1.037McGrath 1.156 0.975 1.006 0.994 1.026 1.038 0.889 0.948 1.000 1.032 0.934 1.150Meadows 0.995 1.013 1.000 1.012 1.037 0.975 0.991 1.028 1.033 1.011 1.024 1.029Newhall 0.970 1.006 1.025 0.988 0.970 1.006 1.106 1.006 1.070 0.943 0.971 1.075Oak Hills n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Old Orchard 1.102 0.956 0.985 0.990 1.025 1.041 0.992 1.025 0.979 1.004 1.033 1.080Peachland 1.024 0.985 1.016 0.960 1.040 0.986 1.058 0.970 0.980 0.941 1.118 0.969

Pico Canyon 1.024 1.092 0.988 0.960 1.019 1.007 0.994 1.061 1.034 1.032 1.013 1.010Stvnson Rch 1.055 1.026 1.037 1.012 1.019 0.972 1.006 0.996 0.991 0.995 0.995 0.963Valencia Vlly 1.073 1.052 0.958 0.996 0.966 1.046 0.874 0.961 1.044 0.956 0.981 1.039

Wiley Cyn 1.022 0.994 1.012 0.982 0.958 1.025 1.000 1.034 1.024 1.020 0.973 1.041

SAUGUS MOBILITY FACTOTRSMF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12

Saugus District-wide 0.995 0.992 0.986 1.003 1.010 0.994 0.981 1.008 1.007 0.990 0.971 1.034Bridgeport ES 1.009 0.983 1.002 0.986 0.991 1.010 0.994 0.989 1.053 1.060 0.971 1.022Cedarcreek ES 0.961 1.005 1.000 1.010 1.022 1.031 1.087 1.132 1.080 0.976 0.916 1.099Entrada ES Site n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Foster ES 1.010 0.962 0.991 1.009 0.997 0.969 0.983 1.020 1.000 0.951 0.961 1.074Helmers ES 0.960 0.965 0.954 1.025 0.997 0.994 0.970 0.969 0.950 1.003 0.974 1.016

Highlands ES 1.005 1.032 1.000 1.078 1.005 0.955 0.988 1.078 1.003 0.962 0.958 1.059Mountain View ES 1.062 1.057 1.008 1.012 1.074 0.990 0.919 0.977 0.993 0.973 0.976 0.979

Northpark ES 0.937 1.007 0.981 0.997 0.922 0.991 0.979 1.054 0.992 0.952 0.951 1.009Plum Canyon ES 1.008 1.054 0.974 1.036 0.989 0.964 0.932 1.005 1.050 1.020 0.991 1.030

Rio Vista ES 0.921 1.063 1.033 1.000 1.113 1.015 0.953 1.030 0.948 1.008 1.096 1.107Rosedell ES 1.050 0.981 0.993 0.993 1.045 1.008 1.010 0.990 0.983 0.993 0.989 1.037

Santa Clarita ES 1.040 0.956 0.897 0.922 1.011 0.964 1.030 0.964 1.038 0.989 0.923 1.060Skyblue Mesa ES 1.015 0.942 0.956 0.957 1.030 1.012 0.933 0.976 0.995 1.014 1.029 0.972

Tesoro del Valle ES 0.894 0.972 0.994 1.036 1.025 1.006 0.916 0.941 1.005 0.956 0.969 1.020West Creek Academy n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

SULPHUR SPRINGS MOBILITY FACTOTRSMF-1 MF-2 MF-3 MF-4 MF-5 MF-6 MF-7 MF-8 MF-9 MF-10 MF-11 MF-12

Canyon Springs CS 1.026 1.004 0.974 0.982 0.942 1.024 0.958 1.050 0.949 1.000 0.972 1.121Fair Oaks Ranch CS 0.987 0.950 0.947 1.003 0.973 0.990 0.966 0.977 1.000 0.967 1.009 1.099

Golden Oak CS 1.084 1.092 0.942 0.911 0.956 1.008 0.898 1.010 1.009 1.042 1.045 0.962Leona Cox CS 1.019 0.980 0.990 1.004 0.915 0.966 1.025 1.017 1.068 0.985 1.004 1.054

Mint Canyon CS 1.018 0.963 1.025 1.044 1.017 1.065 0.961 1.027 0.984 1.033 1.000 1.090Mitchell CS 1.108 1.092 1.089 0.965 1.040 1.010 0.958 1.018 1.030 1.053 0.900 1.057Pinetree CS 0.952 1.013 1.031 0.990 0.961 1.050 0.927 0.978 1.071 0.975 1.011 1.053

Sulphur Springs CS 1.062 1.073 0.994 1.011 0.985 1.015 0.905 0.958 1.021 0.953 0.986 1.011Valley View CS 0.956 1.041 1.011 1.041 0.983 1.062 0.990 0.993 0.997 1.011 0.985 1.151

Attendance Areas that are highlighted in yellow means that its District-wide factors were usedinstead due to the same size being too low.



Table 3 - Mobility Factors (continued) Study Areas excluded in the sample (56 in total): In the Castaic Area [6]: (2C,5C,5E,8B,8D,8E); in the Newhall Area [5]: (100F,101,144,148,153C); in the Sulphur Springs Area [5]: 64A,73A,93E,95,142; and in the Saugus Area [40]: (12,13,13A,14A,14C,14D,14F,14G,14H,14I,14V,15,15A,16A,16B,19A,19B,19F, 19K,19N,19P,29D,29E,29F,29G,29H,29J,29K,36B,38A,38B,42,45,46,47,48,49A,19B,50,56.

The Mobility Factors in Table 3 show that there is typically a net increase in the Kindergarten to 1st grade transitions, due mostly to parents choosing to put their children in Kindergarten at other institutions (mostly day care) and then enrolling them at the public schools at the 1st grade level. For the most part the Mobility Factors also show that “across the board” the feeder districts are losing some students in the younger grades, from 2nd-5th, but do gain a little back in 6th grade. The 8th to 9th grade Mobility Factors are the most telling; usually this factor is the largest (shown by mostly green numbers, above 1.000), but these factors are lower than typical. This is where students usually enter the public high schools from private K-8 institutions and it students suddenly “appear out of nowhere” (not previously enrolled at a public middle school), except, interestingly, for the Castaic area. The MF-9 factors are on the low side and coupled with the MF-10 and MF-11 factors, tell us that overall the Valley is losing students/families by the time they reach high school age and are not being replaced by similar demographics. The Hart District is losing students in grades 10 and 11, shown by the red figures. A possible explanation is that families are simply moving out and not being replaced at all (vacant homes) or they do not have as many children, or any high school age children. What is also interesting is that the MF-12 factors (students moving from 11th to 12th) are very high (nearly all are green) and higher than they have been in recent years. There could be several reasons for this higher MF-12 rate: 1) it could be that more students are being held back and not graduating and 2) another reason could be that students are entering the Hart District at that level from other schools/programs (OFL, private schools, etc.). 4) Student Yield Factors – 7 Year Projections

The Student Yield Factors (sometimes referred to as "Student Generation Rates"), when applied to planned residential development units, determine how many additional students will be generated from new construction within the District (see Section Two for details on planned residential development). It is part of this year’s contact (Fall 2013) to have DDP update the District’s Student Yield Factors (SYF’s).

Two sets of data are required to calculate Student Yield Factors: current student records (provided by all of the Santa Clarita Valley school districts to DDP in September and October 2013 and current housing unit data (acquired from the Los Angeles County Tax Assessor files, also in September 2013). Each student record and tax assessor record is mapped by their given address. The two database sets are then linked by common their location. This allows DDP to associate each student with a specific housing unit. DDP uses three general categories of housing units for its Student Yield Factor studies: Single-Family



Detached (SFD), Multi-Family Attached (MFA) [condominiums, townhouses, duplexes, etc.] and Apartments (APT).

Before the SYF’s can be applied to the current housing units, the year of construction for each housing type must be analyzed. New housing generally attracts young families with elementary school aged children. Over the next 12 to 15 years, the children grow older and pass through the grades. This cycle is then repeated throughout the life of the home. Analyzing the year of construction for new housing units can help estimate the number of facilities needed to accommodate new students. Once DDP was able to determine a large sample of new housing units built from 2008-2013, then calculations are performed to produce a Student Yield Factor. The number of current students residing in a particular housing type is then divided by the total number of units for that particular housing type.

These factors were produced using large samplings of the three main unit types built within a five year period (2008-2013) within the William S. Hart Union High School District Boundary. The main reason for using this specific housing sample is to apply a comparable factor to the "new" housing units. The idea is that housing units built within the last five years best represent those that are being built or are going to be built in the near future. Collectively (all across the Santa Clarita Valley), the sample size using the latest housing data (collected in late September 2013) included 1,949 total units, according to L.A. County Assessor records (down from the 2,702 sample size in DDP’s 2011 SYF study, even more substantially from the 6,965 total units in the 2009 study, the 12,024 total units used in the 2007 and the 15,801 total units in a 2005 study). The different housing types include 1,212 single-family detached (SFD) dwelling units; 517 multi-family attached (MFA) units (such as condominiums and townhouses); and 220 apartment (APT) units. [In 2011, when DDP last conducted this study, there were 1,825 SFD units, 657 MFA units and 220 apartment units used in the sample for units built from 2006-2011]. DDP produced essentially five sets of Student Yield Factors: one for each of the four Wm. S. Hart UHSD feeder areas and a Valley-wide set that sums up all four district’s areas. These SYF’s were then applied to the appropriate study areas that comprise each feeder district boundary (see Appendix C, for more detailed SYF calculations). The following steps show the process that DDP uses for calculating "Student Yield Factors (SYF’s)." On the District's behalf, DDP acquired the most current housing database from the L.A. County Assessor's Office in September of 2013. This housing data was mapped to the same streets as the student data (downloaded from all five public school districts in late September/early October 2013). All students with the same address as a particular housing unit are then geographically linked and, therefore, the number of students coming from specific housing types could then be calculated.

DDP calculated individual sets of Student Yield Factors (SYF's) for each of the four feeder elementary districts (broken down by the three housing types). When the sample sizes of units built within the last five years were not large enough, then a Santa Clarita Valley-wide (Wm. S. Hart UHSD boundary) sample was used. For all of the elementary districts, there were enough SFD units built within the last five years, however, in some



cases (see Table 4) there was a need of a larger sample size for MFA and APT units. This sample should reflect a reasonable number of students expected from planned residential developments.

Table 4 lists the Student Yield Factors that DDP calculated for the four feeder district areas that make up the William S. Hart Union High School District boundary as well as a Santa Clarita Valley-wide summary (which is essentially the same area that encompasses the Wm. S. Hart UHSD area).

Table 4

Student Yield Factors (SYF's) (Using Individual District-wide samples)*

*Sample size includes units built from 2008-2013. Sulphur Springs Union School District Castaic Union School District SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT K-6 0.308 **0.044 **n/a K-6 **0.368 **n/a **n/a 7-8 0.097 **0.033 **n/a 7-8 **0.000 **n/a **n/a 9-12 0.113 **0.078 **n/a 9-12 **0.368 **n/a **n/a K-12 0.518 **0.156 **n/a K-12 **0.737 **n/a **n/a Saugus Union School District Newhall School District SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT K-6 0.416 0.251 0.205 K-6 **0.182 **n/a **n/a 7-8 0.103 0.052 0.136 7-8 **0.152 **n/a **n/a 9-12 0.157 0.119 0.168 9-12 **0.485 **n/a **n/a K-12 0.677 0.422 0.509 K-12 **0.818 **n/a **n/a Wm. S. Hart Union HS District Area SFD MFA APT K-6 0.370 0.215 0.205 7-8 0.101 0.048 0.136 9-12 0.153 0.112 0.168 K-12 0.624 0.375 0.509 A Santa Clarita Valley-wide sampling

** = The sample size was deemed to be too small,

so the Santa Clarita Valley-wide (Wm. S. Hart UHSD area) sample was used.



5) Planned Residential Development Closely related to the Student Yield Factors are planned residential development units. Planned residential development data is collected to determine the number of new residential units that will be built over the seven-year time frame of the student population projections. The units built within the next seven years will have the appropriate SYF applied to it to determine the number of new students the planned residential development will yield. This data was obtained through discussions with the major developers within the District boundaries, the Planning Department of the City of Santa Clarita and local developers. A database and map of the planned residential development was created, including, when available, project name, location, housing type, total number of units and estimated move in dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based upon occupancy of the unit and is used to help time the arrival of students from these new developments. (see Section Two for details on planned residential development occupancy)

In the student population projection by residence DDP includes all Approved and Tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated annually.



APPLYING THE VARIABLES TO GENERATE THE PROJECTIONS

The following paragraphs summarize how DDP uses the factors to determine the student population projections (see Chart 1 on page 15 for a flowchart of this process). Remember that these projections are based on residence. Wm. S. Hart Union High School District has been broken up into 355 study areas and each are coded for each elementary, middle and high school depending upon what attendance area they Fall within. The residential projections are calculated at the study area level. This means that DDP conducts 355 individual projections that are based upon the number of students residing in each study area

The first step in running these projections involve listing the number of students that live in a particular study area by each individual grade (Kindergarten through 12th grade). The current student base (Fall 2013) is then passed onto the next year's grade (for example, 2013’s 6th graders become 2014's 7th graders, 2013's 8th graders become 2014's 9th graders, and so on). After the natural progressions of students through the grades are applied, then Birth Factors are multiplied to the current Kindergarten class to generate a base for the following year's Kindergarten class.

Next, a Mobility Factor is applied to all grades. Again, these factors take into account the natural in/out migration of students throughout the District. A specific Mobility Factor was calculated for each grade transition (K to 1st, 1st to 2nd…11th to 12th) and is applied to the appropriate grade to estimate the next year’s progressed students. A separate set of Mobility Factors were calculated for each elementary attendance area and the study areas that make each elementary attendance area were applied the appropriate factors.

The last essential layer applied to the projections deals with additional students from planned residential development. This is a simple calculation, again conducted at the study area level, where the estimated number of new housing units for a particular year is multiplied by the appropriate Student Yield Factors. For example, if 100 single family detached (SFD) units are to be built in a specific study area in a given year, then you would multiply this number (100) by the SFD 9-12 student yield factor (.157, using Sulphur Springs areas’ 9-12 factor as an example) and the resulting number (15.7) is divided evenly among the four grades. The same process is conducted for each of the other two grade groupings (K-6 and 7-8).

To finish generating the projections by residence, the same process is conducted for each of the 355 study areas. Once the projections have been run at the study area level, then it is simple addition to determine projections for each of the District's attendance areas or for a district-wide summary. For example, the residential projections for Canyon High School are simply the summary of all of the study areas that make up this specific attendance area (see Sections Five and Six for the projections of each middle and high school attendance area). The District Summary for the projections (Section Four) is a total summary of all 355 study areas, which excludes all of the students that attend a District school and live completely outside of the District's boundaries and students unable to be address matched. These out-of-district and unmatched students are factored back into the projections by simply adding the existing totals in at the bottom of the projections (please see the Attendance Matrices in Section Three for a breakdown of the out-of-district and unmatched students by school). DDP adds the current total out-of-district and unmatched students to each year of the projections because there are no ways to accurately forecast these students in the future.



Chart 1

Projections by “Residence” Flowchart


March 14, 2014 Section Two – Page 16

SECTION TWO

PLANNED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

This data was obtained through discussions with the major developers within the District boundaries, the Planning Department of Santa Clarita and local developers. A database and map of the planned residential development was created, including, when available, project name, location, housing type, total number of units and estimated move in dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based upon occupancy of the unit and is used to help time the arrival of students from these new developments.

In the student population projection by residence DDP includes all Approved and Tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the seven year projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated annually.

The Residential Development Summary Table, on page 19, has been provided to give the District an idea of the amount of anticipated residential construction over the seven year timeframe of the projections. A map on page 18 has also been included in the report to give a visual aspect as to the size and location of these projects as well as the study areas that they fall within. Note: All study areas not appearing on this table have no planned development over the next seven years at the time this study was prepared. The numbers of projected housing units shown in the table are used in developing the student projections.

There are many major residential development projects that are expected to dominate the Santa Clarita Valley area over the next seven years (see the map on page 18 for a visual depiction of where these projects are located). However, nearly every project current and future has been either severely slowed down or has been pushed out almost indefinitely. Pardee Construction is the most active residential developer in the eastern portion of the District with the ongoing Fair Oaks Ranch project and eventually the housing units in the Golden Valley Ranch and Skyline Ranch projects. Lennar is now overseeing the remainder of the Stevenson Ranch development (all west of I-5), and we have its Phase 5 starting around 2019. The remainder of the Tesoro del Valle project, in the central portion of the District could resume building by sometime in 2016 at the soonest.

Newhall Land and Farming (NLF), which is owned by Lennar, is the most active developer in the Santa Clarita Valley. Currently, NLF is continuing to build in the Valencia area with a large number of individual developments. West Creek/West Hills, an active NLF project in the center of the District, had its first occupants towards the end of 2007 and contains over 2,200 units. River Park is another active NLF project that is currently under construction at the eastern terminus of Newhall Ranch Road, just north of Soledad Canyon Road, and contains over 1,000 mixed use units. Newhall Ranch is NLF’s largest planned community, which contains over 20,000 residential units, and could have its first occupants as soon as late 2016 and could take up to 20 years to complete. Newhall Ranch spans from Interstate 5 on the east and the L.A./Ventura County border on the west. Additional NLF projects are scattered through the central and western areas of the Hart District. For the most part, the NLF projects that have yet to begin have been delayed a few more years than was stated


March 14, 2014 Section Two – Page 17

in previous reports, due mostly to the downturn in the economy and the virtual standstill in new housing sales. However, new home sales have definitely started picking up the last few years, but nowhere near the level where sales were as recently as 2007.

There are a number of smaller residential developments that are currently under construction and are estimated to be completed over the next few years. Projects by the Toll Brothers (recently taking over the Shapell projects) and KB Homes (finishing up with the Ridgeview project) in the Plum Canyon area are examples of projects that were halted or delayed during the downturn in the housing market and are now selling. The Northlake community located in the Castaic area on the east side of Interstate 5, was a SunCal project that contains nearly 4,000 mixed units and is currently on hold and has been removed from the projections due to the uncertainty of the project and ownership status. There are many more projects under construction or planned to be built over the next seven years. All of these projects and more have been incorporated in the Residential Development Summary Table located on page 19 and on the “active” project list located on page 20, which breaks down each individual housing development that plans on building between now and 2020.

According to the Residential Development Summary Table on page 19, DDP is estimating that there could be a grand total of 15,847 residential units built within the boundaries of the Hart High School District over the next seven years. As a sign that things are improving in the new housing market, the projected 7-year new housing total (15,847 units) is higher than the total used in last years (2012) report (11,524). That breaks out to a total of 5,369 SFD’s, 7,875 MFA’s and 2,603 APT’s for the entire Santa Clarita Valley through 2020 (higher than the 4,538 SFD’s, 4,643 MFA’s and 2,343 APT’s in the 2012 report). For the next school year (October 2013 through September 2014) there may be as many as 969 total units constructed, with another 977 more units to arrive the following year. These figures still show residential growth for the Valley, however, both of these figures are substantially less than was estimated in reports from about 6-7 years ago (before the housing market crash). The summary does show a steady stream of over 3,500 new units a year from Fall 2017 through 2020, but they could possibly be pushed out further if some of the large projects (especially Newhall Ranch) get delayed for at least a few more years. Please keep in mind that this summary is a best guess estimate of the progress of new housing units over the next seven years. DDP visited all of the active new housing sales offices and had conversations with almost all of the large developers to get a better feel for the current state of the Santa Clarita Valley’s housing market. See the list on page 20 for a detailed listing of all new housing projects that are expected to be active over the next seven years.

The housing market has slowed considerably about 5-6 years ago and has picked up once again the last few years. Of course, changes in the economy have a direct impact on the demand for new housing. The exact timing of a potential larger upswing in the housing market is currently unknown, but the District will need to continue to research this topic on an annual basis.

Please note that all phasing schedules are based on occupancy, all Approved and Tentative maps plus proposed and potential development are included on these lists, the Summary only includes units that may be occupied in the seven year timeframe of the projections and are based upon data gathered in late 2013 (September through December) and may not reflect recent changes.

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WILLIAMS HOMES

53653LYON CANYON RANCH

WESTERN PACIFIC/DR HORTON

53295ENTRADA SOUTH

NEWHALL LAND AND FARMING

53295ENTRADA SOUTH


99999VILLA METRO

NEW HOME COMPANY

53295ENTRADA NORTH


46018PLUM CANYON

TOLL BROS? WAS SHAPPEL31803

RIDGEVIEWKB HOMES

0ARIA

LENNAR HOMES

24500POTRERO

VALENCIA COMPANY/NLF

52414GOLDEN VALLEY RANCHPARDEE CONSTRUCTION

60678HOMESTEAD SOUTH

VALENCIA COMPANY/NLF

60678HOMESTEAD SOUTH

VALENCIA COMPANY/NLF61996

LEGACY VILLAGELENNAR HOMES

61996LEGACY VILLAGELENNAR HOMES

61105MISSION VILLAGE


61105MISSION VILLAGE


0CLARIDAD

LENNAR HOMES

46018PLUM CANYON RANCH

SHAPELL (S&S CONSTR.)

53425RIVER VILLAGE


53108LANDMARK VILLAGE


52908OAKRIDGE ESTATESOAKRIDGE HOMES

53425HERITAGE HTS/CLASSIC


50584JEFF MCHADDAD

34466MANCARA @ RBN RANCH

ROBINSON RANCH RESIDENTIA

60922SKYLINE RANCH

PARDEE CONSTRUCTION

0MOSAIC

LENNAR HOMES

51644TESORO DEL VALLE

MONTALVO PROPERTIES, LLC

53108LANDMARK VILLAGE


48086SPRING CANYON

JOHN MARKLEY (OWNER)

60258THE KEYSTONE

BROOKFIELD HOMES

51644TESORO DEL VALLE

EVANS,COLLINS COMM BLDRS

0SONRISA

LENNAR HOMES

0TOSCANA

LENNAR HOMES

0AVANTI

LENNAR HOMES

0HIGHGATE

DR HORTON

0ARTE

LENNAR HOMES

0BELMONT

DR HORTON

0MONUMENTDR HORTON

0LAVELLO

LENNAR HOMES

0CAPRI

LENNAR HOMES

0VISTA CANYON

JSB DEVELOPMENT

52833LIVINGSMART

PARDEE CONSTRUCTION

0Townhomes @ Lost Cyn

RESMARK

62343TRESTLES

WILLIAMS HOMES

0WESTRIDGE ESTATES

CUSTOM HOMES

53425LEXINGTON

LENNAR

53425CHARLESTON

KB HOMES

52833CREST VIEW

PARDEE CONSTRUCTION

I

¹º Junior High Schools

¹º High Schools

StreetsHighways

Major Roads

Ramp

Surface Streets

Rivers

Lakes

Railroads

Feeder District Boundary

Study Areas and Study Area Numbers

NEWHALLSCHOOLDISTRICT

CASTAICSCHOOLDISTRICT

SULPHUR SPRINGSSCHOOLDISTRICT

SAUGUSSCHOOLDISTRICT

Study Areas and Study Area Numberswith Planned Residential Development

That Can Be Built Over the Next Seven Years

Wm S. Hart Union High School District

1 inch = 1.11 miles

Map prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.March 2014

Source: Tract Map for Report.mxd

1 0 10.5 Miles

Page 18


March 14, 2014 Page 19

SEVEN-YEAR RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY REPORT

Total SFD = 5,369 Total MFA = 7,875 Total APT = 2,603 Total Units = 15,847"New Boundaries" "New Boundaries"

All Units/Types Feeder ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MIDDLE SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL

SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT Years 1 - 7 District ATTENDANCE AREA ATTENDANCE AREA ATTENDANCE AREA

5F 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 20 0 0 20 0 0 20 0 0 20 0 0 90 5F CA LIVE OAK ES CASTAIC MS CASTAIC AREA HS CA = Castaic Union School District10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 84 168 0 155 406 107 31 172 120 0 56 85 1,384 10 CA LIVE OAK ES CASTAIC MS CASTAIC AREA HS NE = Newhall School District

14A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 150 0 0 150 0 0 300 14A SA TESORO DEL VALLE ES RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS SA = Saugus Union School District 19A 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 100 0 0 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 19A SA TESORO DEL VALLE ES RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS SS = Sulphur Springs Union School District 19F 220 0 0 181 0 0 51 0 0 20 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 492 19F SA WEST CREEK ACADEMY RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS

19P 73 37 0 65 94 0 49 103 0 32 65 0 0 66 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 624 19P SA WEST CREEK ACADEMY RIO NORTE JHS VALENCIA HS

29E 50 0 0 60 0 0 80 0 0 80 91 0 55 100 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 716 29E SA PLUM CANYON ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS

29F 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 29F SA SKYBLUE MESA ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS

36B 80 0 0 35 24 0 33 45 0 23 45 0 0 45 0 0 45 0 0 20 0 395 36B SA HIGHLANDS ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS

37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 SA ROSEDELL ES ARROYO SECO JHS SAUGUS HS

38A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 85 0 0 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 231 38A SA HIGHLANDS ES SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS

38B 0 0 0 50 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 387 38B SA HIGHLANDS ES SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS

42 0 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 40 90 346 281 144 355 231 97 363 222 2,324 42 SA ENTRADA ES SITE RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS

49B 0 95 0 0 180 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 315 49B SA HIGHLANDS ES LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS

56 15 66 0 15 22 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 133 56 SA RIO VISTA ES LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS PLEASE SEE FOLLOWING PAGE58 18 0 0 37 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 92 58 SS CANYON SPRINGS CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS FOR A BREAKDOWN OF EACH PROJECT66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 56 0 0 75 0 0 156 66 SS SULPHUR SPRINGS CS SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS FOR EACH STUDY AREA

67B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 100 0 0 135 0 0 135 0 0 435 67B SS MINT CANYON CS SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS

92 0 0 0 0 0 200 0 100 250 25 115 250 45 115 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,100 92 SS SULPHUR SPRINGS CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS

93A 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 93A SS GOLDEN OAK CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS

93E 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 93E SS FAIR OAKS CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS

95B 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 14 0 0 20 0 0 20 0 0 20 0 0 86 95B SS SULPHUR SPRINGS CS SIERRA VISTA JHS CANYON HS

100A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 36 166 742 167 387 1418 259 427 1689 295 5,607 100A NE OAK HILLS ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS

100F 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 100F NE OAK HILLS ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS

143 0 0 0 10 0 0 93 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 403 143 SS GOLDEN OAK CS LA MESA JHS GOLDEN VALLEY HS

144 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 18 144 NE PICO CANYON ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS

144A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 22 144A NE WILEY CANYON ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS

144C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 11 144C NE WILEY CANYON ES RANCHO PICO JHS WEST RANCH HS

155 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 15 0 0 8 0 0 38 155 NE WILEY CANYON ES PLACERITA JHS HART HS

Total 581 318 60 457 320 200 559 349 250 665 625 326 1046 1905 555 1114 2130 610 947 2228 602SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT SFD MFA APT

959 977 1,158 1,616 3,506 3,854 3,777

Notes about this summary report:

1. The phasing schedules on this page are based upon estimated dates of occupancy. SFD MFA APT TOTAL2. Includes Approved and Tentative maps plus proposed and potential development. Please note that many of the residential projects listed are overseen by Lennar/ Castaic USD Area 360 802 312 1,4743. Summary only includes units that may be occupied in the seven year timeframe of the projections. Newhall Land and Farming (NLF) Co.. DDP corresponded with Lennar associates in Nov. 2013 Newhall SD Area 1,075 3,870 757 5,7024. Based upon data gathered from September 2013-December 2013 and may not reflect recent changes. and was given their estimates for the number of units and phasing schedules for all Saugus SD Area 2,610 2,873 774 6,257

5. The information for this summary was gathered by conversations with projects within the Hart District's boundaries. Therefore, these figures are the best Sulphur Springs USD Area 1,324 330 760 2,414 individual developers, sales offices, district staff and city and county officials. guess estimates that are subject to change due to fluxuations in the economy. 5,369 7,875 2,603 15,847

YEAR 1Study Area

Total 13 / 14 = Total 14 / 15 = Total 15 / 16 = Total 16 / 17 = Total 17 / 18 = Total 18 / 19 = Total 19 / 20 =

StudyArea

10/3/2013 - 10/2/2014 10/3/2014 - 10/2/2015 10/3/2015 - 10/2/2016 10/3/2016 - 10/2/2017 10/3/2017 - 10/2/2018

YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6

Breakdown of All Units by Feeder District Area (7-year Totals)

YEAR 710/3/2018 - 10/2/2019 10/3/2019 - 10/2/2020

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Listing of the "Active" Projects (Ones that are expected to be building within the next seven years)

SY 2013/2014 Report

Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Page 20

Contact/Owner/ Tract Study Total Type Left to FeederDeveloper No. Project/Area Areas Units Units Build Comments Districtwas Dan Palmer 52584 Los Valles (incl. golf course) 5F 209 SFD ALL Rough graded / project on hold / bank now controls property / pushed out CANewhall Land & Farming 53108 Newhall Ranch (Landmark Village) 10 270 SFD ALL These units listed are all of CUSD's share of Landmark Village. CA FEEDER DISTRICT CODESNewhall Land & Farming 53108 Newhall Ranch (Landmark Village) 10 802 MFA ALL NLF's estimate is that there may be units occupied by late 2016 at soonest. CA CA = Castaic Union School DistrictNewhall Land & Farming 53108 Newhall Ranch (Landmark Village) 10 372 APT ALL Pushed out further a few years per previous reports. CA NE = Newhall School DistrictEvans,Collins Comm. Bldrs. 51644 Tesoro del Valle (remainder) 14A 314 SFD ALL 1st occupants in 2019 at the soonest; to follow the start of the other "new" SFD's SA SA = Saugus Union School DistrictEvans,Collins Comm. Bldrs. 51644 Tesoro del Valle (remainder) 19A 400 SFD ALL Next wave of TDV units/1st occupants in late-2016 at soonest SA SS = Sulphur Springs Union School DistrictLennar Homes 34900 Arte (West Hills) 19F 79 SFD ALL Nothing happening now/rough graded/1st occupants in 2015? Per NLF SADR Horton 34900 Highgate (West Hills) 19F 79 SFD 69 Started selling in April 2013/10 units occupied/all to be built & occ by Spring 2015 SADR Horton 34900 Belmont (West Hills) 19F 91 SFD 71 Started selling in May 2013/10 units occupied/all to be built & occ by mid-2015 SALennar Homes 34900 Capri (West Hills) 19F 67 SFD ALL Models opened in Aug 2013 & 1st occupants before the end of the year/done in 2014 SADR Horton 34900 Monument (West Hills) 19F 119 SFD 111 Started selling in April 2013/8 units occupied/all to be built & occ by mid-2016 SALennar Homes 34900 Mosaic (West Hills) 19F 111 SFD 91 1st 56 units under construction and 20 are occupied/to all done by mid-2015 SALennar Homes 34900 Claridad (West Creek) 19P 117 MFA 112 5 models built & sold a few years back / should start again in 2014 and finish by late 2016 SALennar Homes 34900 Sonrisa (West Creek) 19P 197 MFA ALL Rough graded / 2 more years out / 1st occ. in 2015 at the soonest and all by Fall 2019? per NLF SALennar Homes 34900 Toscana (West Creek) 19P 162 SFD 122 4 models were built & sold in 2009 / to start again in 2014 / all occupied by 2017? per NLF SALennar Homes 34900 Avanti (West Creek) 19P 96 MFA ALL Detached Condo clusters / grading starte in 2013 / 1st occupants in 2015 & done in 2018? SALennar Homes 34900 Lavello (West Creek) 19P 95 SFD 13 82 units occupied as of Sept 2013/started up again in 2012 after lengthy delay/done late 2013 SALennar Homes 34900 Aria (West Creek) 19P 183 SFD 74 Detached condos / 1st occ. was in 2010 and all done by Spring 2016 per NLF SANow Toll Bros. (was Shapell/S&S) 46018 Heatherton & Sage projects (Plum Canyon) 29E 420 SFD 325 95 units occupied as of Oct 2013 / selling slowly / could change with new ownership SANow Toll Bros. (was Shapell/S&S) 46018 Plum Canyon area 29E 791 MFA ALL Rough graded / still reworking plans / likely will not build all units / 1st occ in 2017? SAKB Homes 31803 Ridgeview 29F 75 SFD 40 KB Homes had 2008 stoppage/sales started for this in Dec 2012/all done by summer 2014 SALennar 53425 Lexington at River Village 36B 102 SFD 53 Was known as Vintage/1st move-ins was in Sept. 2012/Done by sometime in 2015 SALennar 53425 was Heritage Hts. & Classics @ River Village 36B 76 SFD ALL 4 models built & sold in 2009 / new product to start in 2015? through 2017 SANewhall Land & Farming 53425 River Village 36B 231 MFA ALL 1st occ in 2016 at soonest per NLF / 2+ years to build out after 1st occ / product may change SAKB Homes 53425 Charleston at River Village 36B 45 SFD 42 Sales started in May 2013 / 30 sold & 3 occ / all done by mid 2014? SABrookfield Homes 60258 The Keystone 37 112 SFD ALL These are typical SFD's/grading in 2014? with 1st occ in 2015? SALennar 53425 River Village 38A 224 MFA ALL 2 years away from starting contruction / 1st occ in 2015? thru 2020 SABrookfield Homes 60258 The Keystone 38B 387 SFD ALL Coming back to life as small detached condos/could start grading in 2014/1st occ in 2015 SANewhall Land & Planning 24500 Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 42 504 APT ALL 1st occ could be in 2017 with a 5+year build-out plan? per NLF/may change MF unit type SANewhall Land & Planning 24500 Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 42 859 MFA ALL 1st occ could be in 2017 with a 5+year build-out plan? per NLF/may change MF unit type SANewhall Land & Farming 53295 Entrada South 42 339 SFD ALL 1st occupants could be in 2018 with a 3+ year build-out plan? per NLF SANewhall Land & Farming 53295 Entrada South 42 492 MFA ALL 1st occupants could be in 2018 with a 4 year build-out plan? per NLF SANewhall Land & Farming 53295 Entrada South 42 743 APT ALL 1st occupants could be in 2018 with a 6 year build-out plan? per NLF SANewhall Land & Farming 53295 Entrada North 42 1,150 MFA ALL 1st occupants could be in 2020 with a 6+ year build-out plan? per NLF SANew Home Communities 99999 Villa Metro (was "Soledad Village") 49B 407 MFA ALL 4 projects bldg at the same time/sales started in Aug 2013/1st occ in Dec 2013 & done in 2016 SAWilliams Homes 53419 Valle Di Oro 56 111 MFA 88 1st 23 units occ since 2008/started up again in 2013/1st new occ in Nov 2014, done in 2 yrs SAWilliams Homes 62343 Trestles 56 45 SFD ALL Started grading in late 2013/1st occ in 2014/split between 2 Districts SAWilliams Homes 62343 Trestles 58 92 SFD ALL Started grading in late 2013/1st occ in 2014/split between 2 Districts SSWas Pardee Construction 48086 Spring Canyon 66 492 SFD ALL Pardee sold back to original owner in 2010 / pushed out 2 more years / 1st occ in late 2018? SSPardee Construction 60922 Skyline Ranch 67B 1,010 SFD ALL Pardee believes infrastructure to start in 2015 and 1st occ within a few years thereafter SSJSB Development unknown Vista Canyon Ranch 92 70 SFD ALL Part of a commercial dev./could be grading in Spring 2014/Rental units to start first SSJSB Development unknown Vista Canyon Ranch 92 330 MFA ALL Offically approved in 2012 /Up to mx of 1,110 mixed units in project/SFD's to go last SSJSB Development unknown Vista Canyon Ranch 92 700 APT ALL Total units & type breakdown subject to change/1st occ in 2015 all done in 2018? SSRESMARK 52833 Townhomes at Lost Canyon 93A 157 APT ALL Resmark took over from Archstone / All units built in 2013 & should be fully occupied by early 2014 SSPardee Construction 52833 remainder of Fair Oaks Ranch 93E 246 SFD 82 Last of the Fair Oaks Ranch SFD units (Crest View & Livingsmart projects); done by Fall 2014 SSRobinson Ranch Residential, LLC 34466 Mancara Ranch 95B 99 SFD ALL Still in the early planning stages / resubmit Draft EIR then Planning Commission SSNewhall Land & Farming 60678 Homestead (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 699 SFD ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project within Newhall Ranch NENewhall Land & Farming 60678 Homestead (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 2,087 MFA ALL Lots of infrastructure needs to happen before this project can begin NENewhall Land & Farming 60678 Homestead (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 858 APT ALL NELennar Homes 61996 Legacy Village (Ph. 5 of Stevenson Ranch) 100A 605 SFD ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project, the last phase of Stevenson Ranch NELennar Homes 61996 Legacy Village (Ph. 5 of Stevenson Ranch) 100A 968 MFA ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project, the last phase of Stevenson Ranch NELennar Homes 61996 Legacy Village (Ph. 5 of Stevenson Ranch) 100A 467 APT ALL In 2019 this is just the start of this large project, the last phase of Stevenson Ranch NELennar Homes/NLF 24500 Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 351 SFD ALL Project is 6-7 years away - 1st occupants by 2018? / Per NLF comments NELennar Homes/NLF 24500 Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 1,423 MFA ALL Project is 4-5 years away - 1st occupants by 2017? / Per NLF comments NELennar Homes/NLF 24500 Mission Village (part of Newhall Ranch) 100A 108 APT ALL Project is 6-7 years away - 1st occupants by 2018? / Per NLF comments NECustom Homes unknown Westridge Estates (custom homes) 100F 86 SFD 10 Last remaining large lots left around golf course/will build sporadically over the years NEPardee Construction 52414 Golden Valley Ranch 143 403 SFD ALL Hoping to have models open in 2015 / The senior housing was removed from totals SSOakridge Homes 52908 Oakridge Estates 144 19 SFD 18 Lots are all graded / all custom homes / only 1 unit built / nothing going on now NEWestern Pacific?/DR Horton? 53653 Lyon's Canyon Ranch 144A 22 SFD ALL Status still in limbo/five years out from starting at the soonest NEWestern Pacific?/DR Horton? 53653 Lyon's Canyon Ranch 144C 71 SFD ALL This phase of units to follow the 22 SFD's NE


March 14, 2014 Section Three – Page 21

SECTION THREE

ATTENDANCE MATRICES

Two “Attendance Matrices” have been included to provide a better understanding of where students reside and where they attend school. Remember, our projections are based upon where the students reside, not where they attend school. We use the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate depiction of where future facilities (if necessary) should be located. Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students reside, the figures we use as a base for each school's resident projection may be slightly higher or lower than the actual reported enrollment for each school.

These attendance matrices acts as a checks and balances for student accounting. They show where the students reside (in what School of Residence) based upon our address matching capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance) based upon data in the student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these matrices is essential to showing how the students used in the projections match up to the District’s records of enrollment for each school. The best way to plan for future facilities is to know where the next group of students will be coming from, not necessarily which school they are currently attending.

READING THE MATRICES The following provides a more detailed explanation of how to read the matrices. Reading across the top of the Junior High School (7-8) Attendance Matrix on page 23, you can see that DDP has included ALL schools that contain grades 7 and 8; namely, Arroyo Seco Junior High School (7-8), Castaic Middle School (6-8), La Mesa Junior High School (7-8), Placerita Junior High School (7-8), Rancho Pico Junior High School (7-8), Rio Norte Junior High School (7-8), Sierra Vista Junior High School (7-8) as well as Sequoia Charter, Home Learning JHS and any “non-District” students. Please note: For reasons of consistency, DDP has treated Castaic Middle School on this table as a 7-8 school, when in reality it is actually a 6-8 school. Looking at the Junior High School (7-8) Attendance Matrix, let's begin with Arroyo Seco Junior High School (School Code #64) as an example. Following down the first column, with No. 64 as its heading, you can see that 1,074 students attend Arroyo Seco and live in the Arroyo Seco Attendance Area. Continuing downward, 15 students attend Arroyo Seco, but live in La Mesa Junior High School’s attendance area. The next row shows that five students attend Arroyo Seco Junior High School and live in the Placerita Junior High School Attendance Area; and so on. The “Castaic” row refers to students living in Castaic’s area, but attend Arroyo Seco JHS; there are four such students. The item, “Out of District,” refers to students living completely outside of the Hart High School District, but attends one of the District's schools. There are eight “out of district” student attending Arroyo Seco Junior High School. The item named “SDC Students” refers to the number of Special Day Class Students that are currently registered


March 14, 2014 Section Three – Page 22

to the particular school. Arroyo Seco has 105 SDC students enrolled at the school. The item entitled, "Not Matched," refers to students that were not located due to incomplete address data (including P.O. Boxes). For Arroyo Seco, there are no students with a "non-matched" address that attends the school (all Arroyo Seco JHS students were able to be mapped/located). If you read across the bottom row (“Total Enrolled”), these numbers should approximately correspond with the District’s student counts for each school, close to the Fall 2013 CBEDS date. Therefore, reading across, according to our records, 1,250 students were attending Arroyo Seco Junior High School in October 2013; 1,094 attend La Mesa; 1,089 attend Placerita Junior High School; etc..

The last two rows refer to what DDP is terming “transfer in” students. “Transfers in” are all of the students that are currently attending a school outside of their “normal” attendance area. For example, the 63 “transfer in” students for Arroyo Seco refers to all of the students that attend Arroyo Seco, but live outside of its attendance area (excluding the students that could not be located due to incomplete address information). The last row shows the overall percentage of how many students are attending a particular school, but live outside of its attendance area. For example, 5.0% of all of the students actually attending Arroyo Seco Junior High School live outside of the school’s attendance area.

The next step is to start reading across the matrix, beginning with the Arroyo Seco Junior High School attendance area (School Code #64). It is now understood that the 1,074 represents the total number of 7-8 students that live in the Arroyo Seco attendance area and Arroyo Seco Junior High School. The next column, "La Mesa" (#40)”, refers to the number of 7-8 students that live in the Arroyo Seco Junior High School attendance area, but go to La Mesa Junior High School instead; nine students fall into this category. Ten students live in the Arroyo Seco Junior High School attendance area and goes to Placerita Junior High School, and so on. The column entitled, “Total Enrollment per Attendance Area including Castaic” lists all of the students living within a particular school’s attendance area including Castaic’s 7-8 students. The next column “Total Hart (7-8) Enrollment” excludes all Castaic students. If you add down this column (or add across the “Total Enrolled” row), you can determine the total number of student records presented by the District to DDP on or around the Fall 2013 CBEDS date (6,876 Hart 7-8 students).

The next column adds in the SDC students that live in the particular attendance area. In this case, Arroyo Seco has 126 of the total 436 total SDC students living within its attendance area. The next column lists the actual total number of Junior High School students that live inside the District’s attendance areas. Arroyo Seco Jr. High School’s attendance area had 1,337 7-8 students living in its area as of early October 2013. The actual number of total 7-8 students used in the projections contained within this report can be derived by adding this last column downward (6,833).

These same procedures can be used for reading the District's two High School Attendance Matrices (one for only 9th-10th Graders and the other for Grades 11th-12th) located on pages 24 and 25. There are two high school matrices because the “new” attendance boundaries have entered the District’s high schools for grades 9-10, but 11th-12th graders are still under the “old” high school boundaries. Across the top of this matrix, DDP has included all schools that contain grades 9 through 12; namely, Canyon, Golden Valley, Hart, Saugus, Sequoia Charter, Valencia, West Ranch, Bowman Continuation High School, Learning Post, Home Learning HS, Non-District and Academy of the Canyons.

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Junior High (7-8) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix SY 2013/2014 Report

Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. March 14, 2014 Page 23

Total Total Hart Special DayEnrollment (7-8) Class (SDC) Total Students(7-8) Per Enrollment Students Living in the

Attendance Per within the District's64 40 72 89 88 45 Sequoia William S. Hart 42,44 Area Attendance Attendance Attendance "Transfers Out"

School Arroyo Seco La Mesa Placerita Rancho Pico Rio Norte Sierra Vista Charter Non-Dist Castaic (Incl. Castaic) Area Areas Areas*** Rates

Arroyo Seco 1,074 9 10 10 87 12 0 4 4 1 1,211 1,210 126 1,337 11.3%

La Mesa 15 912 52 9 8 76 2 3 3 1 1,081 1,080 70 1,151 15.6%

Placerita 5 13 944 44 13 0 2 2 1 1 1,025 1,024 80 1,105 7.9%

Rancho Pico 0 1 7 887 9 0 0 2 1 2 909 907 32 941 2.4%

Rio Norte 24 2 8 18 954 0 0 5 1 2 1,014 1,012 28 1,042 5.9%

Sierra Vista 15 84 4 2 9 1,040 2 1 0 0 1,157 1,157 100 1,257 10.1%436 6,833 District-wide Avg,

Castaic 4 1 3 4 5 0 2 0 0 616 19 9.2%

Out of District* 8 6 5 1 0 9 0 0 0 5 29

SDC Students 105 66 56 47 65 96 0 1 2 18 438

Not Matched** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Enrolled 1,250 1,094 1,089 1,022 1,150 1,233 8 18 12 646 6,397 6,876

# Enrolled, but Total Number of Hart 7-8 StudentsNot Living inAttend. Area

Transfers In District-wideEnrollment % 0.0%

* Out of District: Students that live outside of the district boundaries. 10.3% = Schools/Boundaries with Transfers In or Out ** Not Matched: Students that could not be matched due to incomplete addresses. greater than the District-average (9%).*** Total Number of Students Living in the District's Attendance Areas: is derived by adding the total number of Hart's 7-8 students living an attendance area 46 = Student groupings greater than 25 that do not High School District and the Castaic Union plus the total number of SDC students living within the district's boundaries. go to their school of residence. School District in October 2013.

088 - - - - - - 7 0

- - - - - - 1.1% 0.0%

63 110 84 87 131

5.0% 10.1% 7.7% 8.5% 11.4% 7.1%

Hart at Home JHS

Source: Fall 2013/2014 CBEDS students fileprovided to DDP by the William S. Hart Union

School of Enrollment

Number of 7-8 StudentsUsed in the Fall 2013/2014

Projections

Enrolled as of October 2013

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District High School (9th and 10th Grade Only) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix(NEW BOUNDARIES)

SY 2013/2014 Report


Special DayTotal Class (SDC) Total Students

Enrollment Students Living in the95 55 (9th) Per within the District's

87 90 25 20 Sequoia 30 92 Learning William S. Hart Academy Attendance Attendance Attendance "Transfers Out"School Canyon Golden Valley Hart Saugus Charter Valencia West Ranch Post HS Non-Dist of the Cyns. Area Areas Areas*** Rates

Canyon 1,088 78 17 7 4 11 11 0 3 1 23 1,243 73 1,316 12.5%

Golden Valley 78 920 46 9 3 13 10 2 3 3 20 1,107 76 1,183 16.9%

Hart 1 15 987 8 3 16 57 1 3 1 15 1,107 55 1,162 10.8%

Saugus 18 6 14 1,097 3 99 15 2 5 0 37 1,296 90 1,386 15.4%

Valencia 2 10 15 35 0 877 26 3 5 0 47 1,020 38 1,058 14.0%

West Ranch 1 2 58 0 1 15 839 1 6 0 13 936 30 966 10.4%

Castaic Area HS 0 4 12 7 0 509 178 3 3 0 18 734 36 770 District-wide Avg.

398 7,841 13.4%Out of District* 6 8 5 5 0 6 7 0 1 0 0 38

SDC Students 65 95 39 80 2 86 33 0 0 1 0 401 Number of 9th and 10th Grade StudentsUsed in the Fall 2013/2014

Not Matched** 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 ProjectionsTotal Enrolled: 1,259 1,138 1,194 1,248 16 1,632 1,176 12 29 6 173 7,883

# Enrolled, butNot Living in 106 123 167 71 - - 160 126Attend. Area District

WideTransfers In Average

Enrollment % 9.8%

* Out of District: Students that live outside of the district boundaries. ** Not Matched: Students that could not be matched due to incomplete addresses.

*** Total Number of Students Living in the District's Attendance Areas: is derived by adding the total number of Hart's 9th & 10th grade students living an attendance area Source: Fall 2013/2014 CBEDS students file plus the total number of SDC students living within the district's boundaries. provided to DDP by the William S. Hart

Union High School District in October 2013.14.1% = Schools/Boundaries with Transfers In or Out

greater than the District-average.

42 = Student groupings greater than 25 that do notgo to their school of residence.

Total Number of 9th & 10th Grade StudentsEnrolled as of October 2013.

10.8% 14.0% 5.7% - -

59 students attending the Transition Learning Centerwere excluded from the above matrix and projections due

to the students having no grade designation.

9th & 10th GRADE MATRIX WITH NEW BOUNDARIES

14.2% 12.6%8.4%


Scho

ol o

f R

esid

ence

(A

tten

danc

e A

rea)

Hart at Home HS

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District High School (11th and 12th Only) Fall 2013 Attendance Matrix(OLD BOUNDARIES)

SY 2013/2014 Report


Special DayTotal Class (SDC) Total Students

93,62,60 Enrollment Students Living in theBowman 95 Transition 55 (10-12) Per within the District's

87 90 25 20 Sequoia 30 92 Continuation Learning Learn William S. Hart Academy Attendance Attendance Attendance "Transfers Out"School Canyon Golden Valley Hart Saugus Charter Valencia West Ranch High School Post HS Charter Non-Dist of the Cyns. Area Areas Areas*** Rates

Canyon 940 72 8 21 4 26 4 68 3 1 3 3 30 1,183 66 1,249 20.5%

Golden Valley 150 855 28 16 6 18 18 124 3 0 3 0 32 1,253 81 1,334 31.8%

Hart 5 19 750 13 3 32 65 90 6 1 4 3 23 1,014 62 1,076 26.0%

Saugus 31 19 13 871 1 54 14 95 13 0 10 1 36 1,158 86 1,244 24.8%

Valencia 5 8 20 116 1 945 23 44 10 0 11 2 45 1,230 54 1,284 23.2%

West Ranch 2 2 91 4 1 19 811 15 5 0 5 0 22 977 26 1,003 17.0%

Castaic Area HS 1 7 15 2 1 241 352 37 1 0 2 3 12 674 46 720 District-wide Avg.

421 7,910 24.1%Out of District* 4 7 2 9 0 5 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 31

SDC Students 55 67 54 75 3 102 27 31 0 0 0 11 0 425 Number of 11th & 12th Grade StudentsUsed in the Fall 2013/2014

Not Matched** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ProjectionsTotal Enrolled: 1,193 1,056 981 1,127 20 1,442 1,315 507 41 2 38 23 200 7,945

# Enrolled, butNot Living in 198 134 177 181 - - 154 125 DistrictAttend. Area Wide

Average

Transfers InEnrollment %

* Out of District: Students that live outside of the district boundaries. ** Not Matched: Students that could not be matched due to incomplete addresses.*** Total Number of Students Living in the District's Attendance Areas: is derived by adding the total number of Hart's 11-12 students living an attendance area Source: Fall 2013/2014 CBEDS students file plus the total number of SDC students living within the district's boundaries. provided to DDP by the William S. Hart

Union High School District in October 2013.14.1% = Schools/Boundaries with Transfers In or Out

greater than the District-average (9%).

42 = Student groupings greater than 25 that do notgo to their school of residence.

Hart at Home HS

16.6% 12.7% 18.0% 16.1% - - 12.8% 13.0% 13.6%having no grade designation.

11th & 12th GRADE MATRIX WITH OLD BOUNDARIES

Total Number of 11th & 12th Grade StudentsEnrolled as of October 2013


Sch

oo

l of

Res

iden

ce

(Att

end

ance

Are

a)

59 students attending the Transition Learning Centerwere excluded from the projections due to the students


March 14, 2014 Section Four – Page 26

SECTION FOUR -- DISTRICT-WIDE STUDENT PROJECTIONS

Seven Year Projection Summaries

The student population is projected out over seven years for each of the 355 study areas that make up the entire Wm. S. Hart Union High School District. The District-Wide Projection Summary (on page 27) enables the District to see a broad overview of future growth and what impact this growth will have on existing facilities. The individual study area listings (located in Appendix A, pages 56 - 233) enable the District to monitor student population growth or decline in smaller geographic areas within the District.

The student projections are an estimated number of students over a seven year span using the latest student (Fall 2013) and District information. The projections were prepared for each year from Fall 2014 through Fall 2020. The projections are based upon the concept of study areas as “building blocks.” By breaking down the District into study areas, then these smaller areas of focus can help in exploring various boundary scenarios. The possibilities include: creating new attendance area configurations; looking into more detail on the progress of certain neighborhoods; and specifically, identifying the regions within the District that are experiencing the most growth, have reached stability, or are undergoing a decrease in population or new development. At any point in time, Study areas and their projected resident students can be shifted between schools to assist in balancing enrollment growth. Together, these projection summaries, present the means for identifying the timing of additional student arrival and overall facility requirements and location accommodate the District's expected growth.

There are currently 355 study areas in the Hart High School District. All attendance areas are made up of specific study areas (see Appendix A, pages 50, 52 and 54). The entire District Summary is simply the compilation of all 355 study areas (please see page 51 in Appendix A for a map of the District’s study areas and study area numbers). For each study area, the student counts are projected out over seven years (Fall 2014 through Fall 2020).

DDP uses the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate depiction of where future schools (if necessary) should be located. Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students live, the figures that DDP uses as a base for each school's projection may be slightly higher or lower than the actual reported enrollment for each school (for a detailed list of student accounting, see the Attendance Matrices in Section Three).

Attendance matrices have been included to act as additional “checks and balances” for student accounting. Remember, these attendance matrices show where the students live (in what Attendance Area) based upon DDP's "address-matching" capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance) based upon data in the student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these matrices is essential to showing how the students used in the projections “match-up” to the District’s records of enrollment for each school. The best way to plan for future schools is to know where the next group of students will be coming from, not necessarily which school they are currently attending. Please see Section Three for these Attendance Matrices and an explanation on how to read them. These matrices will help to give a full accounting of the Hart District students used in the projections by school of attendance and area of residence.


March 14, 2014 Page 27

ActualFall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020

K 3,060 3,027.6 3,073.4 2,918.6 3,057.0 3,172.1 3,244.5 3,293.81 3,229 3,142.9 3,108.5 3,160.5 3,019.7 3,226.1 3,354.9 3,423.92 3,453 3,301.3 3,212.4 3,186.0 3,255.8 3,182.9 3,401.6 3,524.33 3,462 3,484.3 3,334.2 3,252.1 3,241.3 3,377.0 3,315.6 3,527.64 3,507 3,498.3 3,516.9 3,376.2 3,313.7 3,366.8 3,513.4 3,445.65 3,547 3,553.7 3,545.2 3,568.9 3,445.7 3,452.1 3,513.5 3,655.46 3,613 3,609.0 3,609.7 3,609.1 3,651.6 3,596.8 3,611.0 3,667.27 3,714 3,566.3 3,571.7 3,572.8 3,587.5 3,700.3 3,652.0 3,659.88 3,774 3,777.5 3,629.6 3,647.8 3,662.8 3,748.4 3,875.0 3,820.29 3,922 3,852.3 3,855.9 3,715.8 3,750.3 3,824.4 3,919.8 4,048.3

10 3,919 3,924.1 3,860.1 3,870.6 3,746.3 3,839.1 3,924.1 4,015.411 3,851 3,905.3 3,911.9 3,855.1 3,878.7 3,810.5 3,910.8 3,993.712 4,059 4,046.2 4,109.5 4,121.4 4,074.9 4,169.9 4,108.4 4,209.8

Sub Totals: K-6 23,871 23,617.1 23,400.3 23,071.4 22,984.8 23,373.8 23,954.5 24,537.8CAST 7-8 655 621.6 605.0 587.2 567.0 619.6 612.1 541.2HART 7-8 6,833 6,722.2 6,596.3 6,633.4 6,683.3 6,829.1 6,914.9 6,938.8

9-12 15,751 15,727.9 15,737.4 15,562.9 15,450.2 15,643.9 15,863.1 16,267.2K-12 47,110 46,688.8 46,339.0 45,854.9 45,685.3 46,466.4 47,344.6 48,285.0

Unmatched: K-6 53 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0CAST 7-8 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0HART 7-8 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9-12 8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0K-12 61 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0

Out-of-Districts: K-6 145 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0CAST 7-8 5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0HART 7-8 29 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0

9-12 69 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0K-12 248 248.0 248.0 248.0 248.0 248.0 248.0 248.0

Totals: K-6 24,069 23,815.1 23,598.3 23,269.4 23,182.8 23,571.8 24,152.5 24,735.8CAST 7-8 660 626.6 610.0 592.2 572.0 624.6 617.1 546.2HART 7-8 6,862 6,751.2 6,625.3 6,662.4 6,712.3 6,858.1 6,943.9 6,967.8

9-12 15,828 15,804.9 15,814.4 15,639.9 15,527.2 15,720.9 15,940.1 16,344.2K-12 47,419 46,997.8 46,648.0 46,163.9 45,994.3 46,775.4 47,653.6 48,594.0

Fall 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020-253.9 -216.8 -328.9 -86.6 389.0 580.7 583.3

-33.4 -16.6 -17.8 -20.2 52.6 -7.5 -70.9-110.8 -125.9 37.1 49.9 145.8 85.8 23.9

-23.1 9.5 -174.5 -112.7 193.7 219.2 404.1-421.2 -349.8 -484.1 -169.6 781.1 878.2 940.4

NOTE: There are 21 Hart 7-8 students that live within the Castaic USD area and 7 Castaic USD 7-8 students that live in Hart's area.

The above Hart enrollment figures INCLUDE the following:The Bowman Schoos (507), Learning Post HS (53), Sequoia Charter Schools (44), Academy of the Canyons (373),and Special Day Class (SDC) students (1,752 K-12) [which includes 438 7-8 Hart students and 826 9-12 students].

The above projections exclude 563 students with no K-12 grade designations (including 59 Hart students attending Transition Learning Center; 71 Pre-K students for Sulphur Springs ESD and 39 Pre-K students for Castaic USD), and 394 known Transitional Kindergarten (TK) students.

K-12 Annual Change:

District-Wide Projection Summary

Projection Date 10/2/2013

K-6 Annual Change:Castaic 7-8 Annual Change:

Hart 7-8 Annual Change:9-12 Annual Change:



CHART 2



CHART 3



District-Wide Student Projection Trends

At the district-wide level, the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District (the District) experienced a large amount of growth from the mid-1990’s to the mid-2000’s, both in residential development and student population. However, since 2008, the increase in new housing sales and the rate of growth in new students have both started to decline. All of the areas that show growth are directly linked to the new housing that continues to build in the Santa Clarita Valley. The projections contained within this report are based upon the best available information at the time it was prepared. The District must closely monitor the status of the upcoming large housing projects and update the projections annually to best gauge the need for additional schools.

The following paragraphs refer to data found on the District-Wide Projection Summary on page 27, which is a compilation of all 355 study area projections. Chart 3, on page 29, shows both the historical 7-12 enrollment as well as the projected totals from 2014-2020.

As of Fall 2013 the Hart District’s 7-8 population stood at 6,862 students, about 30 more than it had at the same time in 2012 (6,831 in 2012, 6,858 in 2011, 6,961 in 2010, 7,074 7-8 students in 2009 and 7,321 in 2008). There are six Hart District junior high schools which averages out to 1,144 7-8 students per site. The projections in this report have the District’s 7-8 population declining for the next two years (6,625 by 2015) as smaller grade classes enter from the elementary schools. From 2016 to 2020 the middle school grades then incrementally increase as more new residential development kicks in. By Fall 2020, Hart’s middle school population may once again be approaching 7,000 7-8 students.

Focusing on only the 9-12 student counts, the Hart District began the Fall 2010 school year with 15,952 high school students living within its boundary and attending one of its schools. This marked the first decline in the District’s high schools over the last two decades (see Chart 2 on page 28). In Fall 2011, the 9-12 student population rebounded slightly, rising up nearly 100 more students to reach a new high of 16,051, but in 2012 that figure dropped back down to 15,857 resident 9-12 students. In 2013, the 9-12 resident population dropped once again, by 106 students, to 15,751. It appears that the District’s 9-12 student population might have reached its peak in Fall 2009 with a total count of 16,143 resident 9-12 students. Larger incoming 9th grade class sizes coupled with the increase of students from new housing had been the main reasons for the growth that the Hart District had experienced at the high school level over the past twenty years. The downturn in the new housing construction about 6-7 years ago has finally started to reach the high school grades in recent years.

By reading down the Actual Fall 2013 column on the District-Wide projections on page 27, you could see the “bubble” of students that had been entering the District’s high schools for the past five years is now finally graduating out of the District. The largest grade classes among the 13 grades (K-12) are all in the high schools now. From this point forward, until the residential development picks up again, smaller grade classes are going to continue to enter the District’s high schools. In fact, the projections show that the Hart District should see substantial declines in the 9-12 population for at least the next three to four years. The slowdown in the housing market has started to reveal certain declines occurring in portions of the District. This will be explored in greater detail in the next sections (attendance area analysis).

Since Fall 2007, the Wm. S. Hart UHSD has had six comprehensive sites operating at full capacity. Currently, the Hart District houses 15,828 9-12 students (including students living outside of the District’s boundaries). With six current high school sites, and taking out the special program students (1,031 9-12 students) that averages out to 2,466 9-12 students per high school in 2013. The Hart District is hoping to open a high school in the Castaic area (HS #7) as soon as Fall 2017 (9th grade only to start) which would become a fully operational 9-12 school by Fall 2020. If the projections are accurate, by Fall 2019, with almost seven comprehensive high schools, the Hart District could have an average high school size of 2,277 9-12 students.


March 14, 2014 Section Five – Page 31

SECTION FIVE – MIDDLE SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONS

Middle School (7-8) Attendance Area Trends The projections for each of the junior high school boundaries over the next seven years can be found in the beginning of Appendix B (pages 234-236) and Table 5 below shows a summary.

The Hart District currently has six junior high schools (JHS). Each of the junior high schools has been paired with a particular high school (HS) and they have the same exact attendance boundaries. In 2009, the Hart School Board adopted new middle school and high school attendance boundaries that took effect beginning in Fall 2010. In Fall 2010 only the incoming 7th graders followed the new attendance boundaries and all of the middle schools fully adopted the new boundaries starting the Fall 2011 school year. It will not be until Fall 2015 when all of the District’s JHS and HS boundaries are completely in sync with each other again. One of the main purposes for making these boundary adjustments was to more evenly balance the current and future enrollment figures for the District’s schools.

According to Chart 2 on page 28, the Santa Clarita Valley saw its middle school

population reach a peak of 8,111 in Fall 2008; the 7-8 student population has dropped the last four years. As of early October 2013, only two of the District’s six existing junior high school attendance areas exceeded the District’s “ideal” middle school capacity of 1,250 students (Arroyo Seco JHS had 1,337 7-8 students in its area and Sierra Vista JHS had 1,257). [see Table 5 below] La Mesa JHS had the next highest resident count of 1,151 7-8 students and the Placerita JHS attendance area contained the 4th largest 7-8 student population of 1,105 as of early October 2013. Whereas Rancho Pico JHS has the District’s smallest resident count for 7-8 students at 941.

Table 5

Middle School - Current and Projected Counts by Attendance Area

The map on the following page shows the “new” middle school attendance areas with current (Fall 2013) and projected student counts for each area for the years 2015, 2017 and 2020. The figures used on the map come directly from the numbers listed on Table 5 above and are referenced throughout the analysis section that follows.

Railroad

Ave

The Old Rd

Potrero Canyon Rd

The Old Road

Chi

quito

Can

yon

Rd

Sie

rra

Hw

y

TheO

ldRd

Mai

n S

t

The Old Rd

Vasquez Canyon Rd

Soledad Canyon Rd

Lyons Av Placerita Canyon Rd

Via Princessa

The

Old

Rd

Sier

ra H

wy

Valencia Blvd

DelValle

Rd

Sand

Can

yon

Rd

Ridge RouteRd

SandC

anyonR

d

Bouq

uet C

anyo

nRd

Main St

Davenport Rd

Soledad Canyon Rd

Newhall Ave

Hasley Canyon Rd

Soledad Canyon Rd

Sierra

Hwy

Copper Hill Dr

McBean Pkwy

Henry Mayo Dr

TheO

ldRd

Rye Can

yon Rd

LittleTujunga Rd

San

Fran

cisq

uito

Can

yon

Rd

Golden Valley

Rd

Sierra Hwy

Bouquet Canyon Rd

Newhall Ranch Rd

Pico Canyon Rd

Newhall Ranch Rd

McB

ean

Pkw

y

Com

merce C

enter Dr

Decoro DrCopper H

ill Dr

TheO

ldR

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Copper Hill Dr

Lake

Hugh

esRd

The Old R

d

Sier

raHwy

Golden Valley R

d

Sierra Hwy

McBean Pkw

y

Golden Valley Rd

Sier

raHw

y

Castaic MS

La Mesa JHS

Placerita JHS

Sierra Vista JHS

Arroyo Seco JHS

Rio Norte JHS

Rancho Pico JHS

1 inch = 1.57 miles

1.5 0 1.50.75 Miles

Wm. S. Hart Union High School DistrictZoomed-In View of the

Junior High School Boundarieswith the Actual Fall 2013 and Projected

7-8 Student Counts for Fall 2015, Fall 2017and Fall 2020 that Live within Each Area

Junior High Schools

railroad

Lakes

Highways

Major Roads

Ramp

Surface Streets

Lakes

Fall 2011 JHS BoundariesNAME

Arroyo Seco JHS

Castaic MS

La Mesa JHS

Placerita JHS

Rancho Pico JHS

Rio Norte JHS

Sierra Vista JHSIMap Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.

March 2014Source: Fall 2013-20 MS Map Page 32

1,042 Actual 7-8 Students for Fall 20131,104 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 20151,115 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2017 985 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2020

1,337 Actual 7-8 Students for Fall 20131,262 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 20151,294 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 20171,184 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2020

655 Actual 7-8 Students for Fall 2013605 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2015567 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2017541 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2020

941 Actual 7-8 Students for Fall 2013 826 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2015 810 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 20171,193 Projected 7-8 Students for Fall 2020






Individual Middle School (7-8) Attendance Area Analysis (The projections used in this section can be found in Table 5 on the page 31 and the projection summaries in Appendix B, pages 234-236) HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN YEARS (200 MORE 7-8 STUDENTS)

In Fall 2013, La Mesa Junior High School had a total of 1,151 resident students (a bit higher than the 1,112 it had in 2012) while having 1,094 enrolled students (almost the same as the 1,099 7-8 students in 2012). The attendance area projections for the La Mesa JHS indicate the school should grow steadily over the next six years, once again reaching the 1,200 level as soon as Fall 2014 and climb over 1,300 by Fall 2017. At one time, La Mesa JHS housed over 1,500 students (1,568 in 2002), so it should have no problems accommodating its projected student population over the next seven years, reaching 1,368 in 2019 (a net growth of almost 220 7-8 students). SLIGHT GROWTH (PEAK AT 2016) THEN DECLINES ANNUALLY THROUGH 2020 (NET -57)

As of Fall 2013, Rio Norte Junior High School had 1,150 7-8 students attending (75 less than the 1,225 in 2012); while its boundary contained 1,042 students (down 35 from the 1,087 in 2012). The Rio Norte JHS boundary still has a substantial number of housing units planned in its region, including the active West Hills and West Creek projects; however, many other projects have been pushed out later over the next seven years due to the recent decline in housing sales. The West Hills and West Creek projects should be winding down over the next four years. According to the projections, the resident counts for the Rio Norte JHS boundary could grow slightly over the next three years, peaking around Fall 2016 (1,137 7-8 students) and then could drop-off to back to around 984 by Fall 2020 (a net decline of 57 9-12 students over the next seven years). Rio Norte JHS has accommodated over 1,400 students in the past (1,427 in 2008), so it should have no problems accepting the projected student population growth in its attendance area. DECLINES, THEN THE MOST POTENTIAL GROWTH IN THE DISTRICT (+250 7-8 STUDENTS)

The current Rancho Pico Junior High School area has the most potential for growth over the next seven years and beyond. The bulk of the Newhall Ranch project (Mission Village is the first project to begin), the remaining units for the Stevenson Ranch area and the projects planned around the Magic Mountain area (such as Entrada) are all contained within Rancho Pico JHS’s current area. However, the start of these large projects have all been drastically delayed, especially within the last few years, due to the current downturn in the economy and decreasing new housing sales. The first occupants of the Mission Village project (part of Newhall Ranch) in the Rancho Pico area may be as soon as 2017 and the remainder of Stevenson Ranch and Entrada projects has been pushed out to start around 2019. As of Fall 2013, Rancho Pico JHS’s area contained only 941 7-8 students, which is the lowest of the District’s six JHS’s, and it is a bit lower than the amount of students it had in 2012 (960 in 2012). In early October 2013, 1,022 7-8 students actually attended Rancho Pico JHS, almost the exact same figure as in 2012 (1,018 in 2012, 1,004 in 2011 and 1,039 in 2010). Initially, the Rancho Pico JHS area is expected to see additional declines for the next four years (reaching a low of 810 by 2017). The projected student counts for the Rancho Pico JHS starting in 2018 shows a net gain of 385 7-8 students through 2020, due mainly to the large amount of potential development that is expected to start as soon as 2017. These projected figures of course are not enough to generate any



concern over the next seven years, but the District will need to closely monitor the progress the Newhall Ranch projects once they break ground. However, keep in mind that the large projects in the Rancho Pico JHS area are expected to extend quite a few years beyond the scope of these projections (well beyond 2020). The Newhall Ranch project alone could take 15-20 years to complete and could eventually justify additional junior high school site(s). Rancho Pico JHS should be able to handle all of the potential growth in its area, but the District may eventually need to reduce some of the “transfers in”. SLOW BUT STEADY ANNUAL DECLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN YEARS (-150 7-8 STUDENTS)

For Fall 2012, Arroyo Seco Junior High School housed 1,250 7-8 students (almost the same as it had the last two years: 1,259 in 2012 and 1,251 in 2011), while its attendance area contained 1,337 7-8 students (a bit lower than the 1,363 in 2012), both figures the largest among the District’s six middle schools. Overall, the projections have the Arroyo Seco attendance area slowly, but steadily declining over the next seven years. The Arroyo Seco resident population could drop to as low as 1,184 by 2020 (a net loss of 154 7-8 students). There are active and planned residential developments within the Arroyo Seco area (River Village and the Plum Canyon area), but the loss is mainly due to smaller grade class sizes currently within its feeder elementary schools that will be entering Arroyo Seco’s area over the next few years. Since Arroyo Seco JHS had housed as many as 1,500 students (1,513 in 2002) then the District should not have any problems with its projected student counts over the next seven years. FAIRLY FLAT STUDENT COUNTS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN YEARS, WITH SLIGHT FLUCUATIONS According to the Junior High School (7-8) Attendance Matrix (on page 23), Placerita Junior High School had a total of 1,089 students enrolled for Fall 2013, a bit higher than the last few years (1,062 7-8 students in 2012 and 1,052 in 2011). The Placerita JHS’s current attendance area had a total of 1,105 resident students in October 2013, about 20 more than it had in 2012 (1,086 in 2012). According to the projections, the Placerita JHS attendance area should remain between 1,034 - 1,067 students over the next seven years. Overall, that works out to be a net decline of only 55 7-8 students over the next seven years (less than two classrooms). A constant flow of similar sized grade classes are mainly contributing to this somewhat stable resident population. The Placerita JHS attendance area does still have some developable land available, but it is minimal compared to other areas (only 38 units between now and 2020). In the past, Placerita JHS had housed as many as 1,601 7-8 students (Fall 2002), so having a resident student population that does not exceed 1,100 should not create any issues for the District over the next seven years. In fact, Placerita JHS could help out neighboring La Mesa or Arroyo Seco JHS’s in the meantime. SLOW BUT STEADY DECLINES OVER THE NEXT FOUR YEARS, THEN INCREASES (NET -80)

In Fall 2013, Sierra Vista Junior High School had 1,257 7-8 resident students (1,203 in 2012), second only to Arroyo Seco’s 1,337. However, the projections show that the number of 7-8 living within the Sierra Vista JHS area could experience slow but steady declines over the next four years, reaching as low as 1,089 7-8 students by Fall 2017; that is a net loss of 168 7-8 students or a decline of just over 13% of its resident population. Increases after 2017 are due to the potential increase in new housing. The main reason for this initial decline for Sierra Vista area is that the current grade classes entering the school



from its feeder elementary schools are much smaller than those that have recently passed through the school. In addition, the last few years of Kindergarten classes that have entered the Sierra Vista JHS attendance area have dropped off dramatically, which does not bode well for the future growth of this attendance area, despite new projected housing units being planned for the region. At one point, Sierra Vista JHS had as many as 1,572 7-8 students attending the school (Fall 2002). Not only should Sierra Vista JHS be able to accommodate its resident population for the next seven years, but it should be able to help out neighboring impacted schools (such as La Mesa JHS). Middle School (7-8) Conclusions

Clearly, the Hart District accomplished what it set out to do when it readjusted its middle school boundaries in 2010. With the advent of the boundary changes, which took full effect in the middle schools starting in 2011, coupled with the continuing decline in the 7-8 student populations, each of the District’s six middle schools show manageable resident figures over the next seven years (ranging from as low as 810 7-8 for Rancho Pico JHS in 2017 to as high as 1,368 7-8 students in La Mesa JHS by Fall 2019).

The seven-year projections show 7-8 student growth within two of the Hart District’s six junior high schools, while the others show stability or some sharp declines. This report uses the 1,250-mark as the “ideal” size for all existing and future junior high schools. Currently, the District houses 6,862 7-8 students, which averages out to 1,144 7-8 students at its six junior high schools (down from the 1,214 average in 2009). According to the projections, the 7-8 student population could drop to around 6,625 by Fall 2015 and then see increases through Fall 2020 (6,968 in 2020, including out-of-District students) after new large housing projects are supposed to begin in 2016. If recent trends continue then it appears that the Hart District will not need to build another middle school over the next seven years. With the changes to the six junior high school boundaries, it appears that the Hart District has successfully prevented any of the sites from exceeding their capacities over the next seven years.

The potential in new housing sales is so great, that if the market makes a sharp recovery, this could have a drastic impact on the Santa Clarita Valley and its student population. There has been a rebound in new housing sales the last few years, but they are still significantly less than what was being built 6-7 years ago. All of the potential new housing units still point to the eventual need for at least a seventh junior high school site, sometime after the scope of the seven-year projections (after Fall 2020). Likely locations for additional 7-8 sites are at least one in the Newhall Ranch project area, one in northeastern portion of the District (somewhere in the Vasquez Canyon area) and/or possibly one in the southeastern region of the District. The order in which a particular school is constructed can be adjusted due to shifting demographic trends, changes in the economy and the unpredictability of the housing market. Therefore the exact timing and order of construction of any new school facility is subject to change.


March 14, 2014 Section Six – Page 36

SECTION SIX – HIGH SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONS

High School (9-12) Attendance Area Trends

For Fall 2013, the William S. Hart Union High School District has six comprehensive high school sites, all fully operational housing grades 9-12. At the opening of the Fall 2013 school year, the high school enrollment was at 15,828 9-12 students. When you remove the 1,031 9-12 students enrolled in the District’s alternative schools/special programs, then that equates to each comprehensive school (total of six) averaging almost 2,466 9-12 students. Assuming that each high school has an “ideal” student capacity of 2,500 then the District already has three of their six sites that are near or exceeding that figure (Canyon, Valencia and West Ranch). The opening of Golden Valley and West Ranch HS’s in the 2004/05 school year did help to lessen the load on many of their existing high schools, except now the District has the continued challenge of housing the Castaic area students. For several years, both Valencia and West Ranch HS’s were sharing the housing of the Castaic area high school students. However, in Fall 2010 this process was stopped due to an effort to keep all of the Castaic area students in one school. Starting for Fall 2010, it was decided by the Hart District to put all new Castaic area students to Valencia HS until the new Castaic area HS is built (see Table 7 on page 37).

In 2009, the Hart School Board adopted new middle school and high school attendance boundaries that took effect beginning in Fall 2010. It will take six years until all 7th-12th grade students attending a Wm. S. Hart UHSD facility will be following the “new” boundaries, by adding a new grade to the new boundaries a year. In Fall 2011 the junior high schools (grades 7-8) fully adopted the new attendance boundaries. In 2012, the first grade of the high schools (9th) adopted the new boundaries and in 2013 now has both 9th and 10th grade adopting the new boundaries (while grades 11th and 12th remain with the “old” boundaries). By Fall 2016, the new boundary will be in full effect (all 9-12 students assigned to the new boundaries). One of the main purposes for making these boundary adjustments was to more evenly balance the current and future enrollment figures for the District’s schools. The table below outlines the new boundary plan implementation and maps of both boundaries can be found in Appendix A, page 53 for the “old” boundaries and page 55 for the “new” boundaries. TABLE 6

Transition Plan for How the

New 7-12 Boundaries are to Take Effect

Junior High School Grades High School Grades

7th graders 8th graders 9th graders 10th graders 11th graders 12th graders

Fall 2010 New Old Old Old Old Old

Fall 2011 New New Old Old Old Old

Fall 2012 New New New Old Old Old Fall 2013 New New New New Old Old

Fall 2014 New New New New New Old

Fall 2015 New New New New New New

Old = Grade is still assigned the previously established boundaries, prior to 2009 New = Assigned the "new" boundaries approved by the Board in September 2009



In addition to the implementation of the new boundaries (which started in the Fall 2010/11 school year), the Hart UHSD is now directing all of the students currently attending Castaic MS to go to Valencia High School until a Castaic area high school opens, as soon as Fall 2017 (with only 9th grade starting at that point). Prior to Fall 2010, the Hart District had a plan in place that had divided the Castaic area 9th graders between both Valencia HS and West Ranch HS. The idea was to have no more than two grades of the Castaic area 9-12 grade students attend either Valencia or West Ranch High Schools at the same time (sometimes referred to as the “2 and 2” plan). However, the Hart District has decided on this new plan of having Valencia HS house all of the upcoming Castaic area high school students in an effort to keep all of them together in one school. Please see the following plan that the Hart District has in place for the 9th through 12th grade students living in the Castaic USD area that started Fall 2010: TABLE 7

The map on the following page (page 38) shows the “new” high school attendance areas with current (Fall 2013) and projected student counts for each area for the years 2015, 2017 and 2020. The figures used on the map (page 38) come directly from the numbers listed on in the High School Transition Projections listed on page 39.

High School Assigned for the 9-12 Grade Castaic Area Students: (In effect at the time of this report, March 2014)

9th graders 10th graders 11th graders 12th graders Fall 2010 Valencia West Ranch West Ranch Valencia Fall 2011 Valencia Valencia West Ranch West Ranch Fall 2012 Valencia Valencia Valencia West Ranch Fall 2013 Valencia Valencia Valencia Valencia Fall 2014 Valencia Valencia Valencia Valencia Fall 2015 Valencia Valencia Valencia Valencia Fall 2016 Valencia Valencia Valencia Valencia Fall 2017 Castaic Valencia Valencia Valencia Fall 2018 Castaic Castaic Valencia Valencia Fall 2019 Castaic Castaic Castaic Valencia Fall 2020 Castaic Area HS is a 9-12 for first time in 2020

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High School Boundarieswith the Actual Fall 2013 and Projected

9-12 Student Counts for Fall 2015, Fall 2017and Fall 2020 that Live within Each Area

High Schools

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March 2014Source: Fall 2013-20 HS Map Page 38








CastaicArea HS

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May 16, 2014 Page 39

Actual2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9 615 651.3 657.9 618.2 637.3 566.9 600.2 620.810 701 613.8 652.3 663.6 625.9 646.2 573.1 605.711 579 683.4 601.0 644.1 655.3 619.2 636.9 565.412 670 608.1 723.6 642.3 691.5 705.9 665.0 684.6

9-12 2,565 2,556.6 2,634.8 2,568.2 2,610.0 2,538.2 2,475.2 2,476.5

Actual2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9 315.2 317.0 314.9 341.510 328.4 319.9 312.411 334.5 320.612 350.5

9-12 315.2 645.4 969.3 1,325.0

Actual2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9 597 551.6 623.7 636.0 596.7 672.5 663.9 682.810 586 610.7 570.7 644.0 655.6 603.6 676.4 665.111 631 604.5 634.0 594.9 667.4 667.6 608.3 677.112 703 706.9 684.5 718.7 671.4 740.6 732.9 667.0

9-12 2,517 2,473.7 2,512.9 2,593.6 2,591.1 2,684.3 2,681.5 2,692.0

Actual2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9 561 567.7 567.3 530.8 540.6 542.0 536.4 531.210 601 548.4 554.7 554.8 519.1 529.6 531.6 525.111 513 607.7 554.6 560.5 559.7 523.7 533.9 536.412 563 533.7 631.7 577.0 582.9 583.7 545.8 556.3

9-12 2,238 2,257.5 2,308.3 2,223.1 2,202.3 2,179.0 2,147.7 2,149.0

Actual2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9 710 700.0 671.5 673.4 624.6 664.2 666.4 647.610 676 705.0 693.9 666.5 671.2 621.1 658.7 659.811 620 663.2 689.9 681.9 656.7 660.0 609.4 645.512 624 655.0 693.0 721.9 715.4 687.6 688.6 636.1

9-12 2,630 2,723.2 2,748.3 2,743.7 2,667.9 2,632.9 2,623.1 2,589.0

Actual2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9 949 896.0 845.9 842.7 594.7 570.1 569.7 554.110 879 945.8 895.2 845.1 849.3 602.2 575.2 574.411 988 867.8 932.5 880.9 838.7 856.3 590.1 562.412 1,016 1,014.7 896.1 960.3 914.2 887.7 893.7 606.4

9-12 3,832 3,724.3 3,569.7 3,529.0 3,196.9 2,916.3 2,628.7 2,297.3Valenica HS's projections if no Castaic HS: 3,512.1 3,561.7 3,598.0 3,622.3

Actual2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9 490 485.7 489.5 414.9 441.2 491.6 568.4 670.410 476 500.4 493.2 496.6 425.1 508.1 589.2 672.911 520 478.8 499.9 492.7 501.0 483.7 597.7 686.212 483 527.7 480.6 501.1 499.5 564.5 582.3 708.9

9-12 1,969 1,992.6 1,963.2 1,905.3 1,866.8 2,047.9 2,337.6 2,738.4

9-12 15,751 15,727.9 15,737.2 15,562.9 15,450.2 15,644.0 15,863.1 16,267.2

The above projections consider the transition rules established by the District and will take effect beginningin Fall 2011 when all incoming 9th grade classes from the Castaic area are to go to Valencia HS until the Castaic HS opens. Starting in Fall 2012, all 9th grade students will attend the new boundaries.Each year thereafter, another grade is added to attend the new boundaries (9-10 in 2013, 9-11 in 2014 and9-12 by 2015). The Castaic Area HS is intended to open by Fall 2017 as a 9th grade only school and thenadd additional grades for the next 3 years. According to the table above, it is assumed that the Castaic Area HS will be a comprehensive 9-12 HS by Fall 2020.

The above projections exclude Out-of District students and include SDC and Continuation HS students.

RED figures mean that the "new" boundaries are in effect for that grade. Blue figures mean that Castaic areagrades are at that particular school for that year and BOLD BLUE figures mean that both the new boundariesAND Castaic area students are effecting that school.

INCLUDES THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS AND CASTAIC SHIFTING (ALL GRADES TO VALENCIA)

Residence Projections

District-wide


West Ranch HS Attendance Area


Valencia HS Attendance Area

Saugus HS Attendance Area

Hart HS Attendance AreaResidence Projections

Golden Valley HS Attendance AreaResidence Projections

Castaic Area HS Attendance AreaResidence Projections


Transition Projections by HS Attendance AreaCanyon HS Attendance Area



The high school “transition” projection table on page 39 shows the number of Fall 2013 (current) 9-12 students actually living in the attendance boundaries for all of the existing high schools as well as the projected counts for Fall 2014 through Fall 2020. The table takes into account the new boundary transition period as well as the Hart District’s policies for housing the Castaic Area 9-12 grade students (shown on pages 36 and 37).

In 2010, the Hart District experienced its first decline in its 9-12 student population in over 20 years (see Chart 2 on page 28). The Hart High School District, after excluding “Out-of-District” students, had 15,751 9-12 students living within its boundaries as of early October 2013, compared to 15,867 in 2012 and 16,016 in 2011. That is a net decrease of 116 9-12 students in one year. This decline is mainly due to smaller grade classes starting to enter the District’s high schools. According to the projections, the Hart District’s high school population should remain fairly flat over the next few years, losing only 14 net 9-12 students through 2015. However, for the following two years, Fall 2016 through Fall 2017, a sudden large drop in the 9-12 students population could occur when much smaller grade classes enter the District’s high schools (losing 287 9-12 students during that time span). By 2018, when the new housing market may be starting to make a strong comeback and the large projects start to kick in (such as Newhall Ranch, Skyline Ranch and Tesoro Del Valle) then you could start to see a resurgence in the 9-12 student population.

The table on page 39, entitled “Transition Projections by HS Attendance Area”, gives an overview of exactly where the 9-12 growth or decline is expected to happen in the Hart District over the next seven years. These “transition” projections take into the account the District’s new policy to have all incoming 9th graders from the Castaic area to attend Valencia HS and also incorporate the “new” attendance boundaries (adopted by the Board of Trustees in 2009) that started in 2012 with the 9th graders and then adds another year for the next three. By Fall 2015 the “new” boundaries will be in full effect at the District’s high schools. The table also includes the plans to have the Castaic area high school open by Fall 2017 with only 9th graders and then add a year on for the next three (a comprehensive Castaic HS by Fall 2020). The table shows that by 2015, when then new boundaries are fully absorbed, the Saugus and Valencia High School attendance areas are still expected to be the District’s two largest schools. However, by 2020, when the Castaic area high school is in full 9-12 operation, Saugus, Golden Valley and West Ranch High School areas will be the District’s largest schools (ranging from 2,600-2,750 students in their regions). Valencia HS’s area should have much more manageable enrollment counts by 2020, roughly in the 2,300 student range, once the Castaic area students are off-loaded. Please keep in mind the following, there are 1,031 9-12 students INCLUDED in the projections that attend a District facility other than the six comprehensive high school sites (for a detailed breakdown by site please see the two Fall 2013 High School Attendance Matrices on pages 24 & 25). The following is the breakdown of these 1,031 9-12 students as of October 2013 CBEDS: 507 9-12 students attend Bowman Continuation High School, 53 students attend Learning Post, 67 students are listed as Home Learning HS, 36 go to Sequoia Charter, 29 are considered Wm. S. Hart Non-District students, 2 attend Transition Learn Center and 373 students go to Academy of the Canyons. None of these six schools/programs have a specific attendance boundary and, therefore, uniformly pull students



District-wide. The 1,031 9-12 students attending these schools/programs live in one of the six current high school attendance areas. Since it appears that these alternative school programs are expected to continue operating throughout the next seven years then it is safe to assume that approximately 1,031 9-12 students would probably continue to be absorbed annually by these schools. Therefore, these six schools/programs should help lessen the total impact of the increasing 9-12 student base. Therefore, the overall 9-12 projections could be reduced by at least 1,031 9-12 students per year based upon the Hart District's current 9-12 enrollment in its special programs. Individual High School Attendance Area Analysis The projections used in this section can be found on the HS Transition Table on page 39 and in the projection summaries in Appendix B, both for the “old” (pgs. 237-240) and “new” boundaries (pgs. 241-244) OVERALL DECLINES IN ITS ATTENDANCE AREA DESPITE NEW PLANNED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT Starting Fall 2012, a portion of the Golden Valley HS attendance area was assigned to Canyon High School; the main purpose of this change is to better balance the eventual enrollment in both schools. In 2013, the 9th & 10th grade students were affected (to add an additional grade for the next two years); by Fall 2015, the new boundaries will be in full effect (all 9-12 students assigned to the new boundaries). According to the High School Attendance Matrices (on pages 24 & 25), Canyon High School had a total of 2,452 students enrolled for Fall 2013, a bit less than over the last three years (2,486 in 2012, 2,457 in 2011 and 2,465 in 2010). The Canyon HS attendance area had a total of 2,565 resident students in early October 2013, 32 less 9-12 students than it had one year earlier (2,597 in 2012). For seven consecutive years, the enrollment for Canyon HS had steadily declined, until 2012, when its boundary expanded. The projections show that the Canyon HS area could peak at 2,635 residents in 2015, and then show slight declines through 2019 (2,475 resident students), despite plans to build new housing units. The Canyon HS attendance area does still have some developable land available, including Pardee’s Skyline Ranch project and part of Lennar’s River Village. The projections do include up to 1,295 units (1,064 SFD’s and 231 MFA’s) to be built in Canyon’s area over the next seven years. The continuous influx of much smaller grade classes that will eventually be entering Canyon HS (they are now in the elementary schools), help to explain why its region may still decline despite the anticipated new housing construction. Since its enrollment figures have been over 2,900 students in the past (2,932 in 2003), then Canyon HS should have no problems housing its resident population in its new boundary over the next seven years. HIGH ENROLLMENT, BUT DECLINING, DESPITE CASTAIC STUDENTS; GROWTH IN REGION

In October 2013, Valencia High School’s boundary contained 2,342 9-12 students, about 121 less students than it had in 2012 due to a new, smaller attendance area that started to take effect in 2012 (2,649 in 2011 and 2,598 in 2010). Valencia HS had 3,074 students attending in October 2013, 114 more than it had in 2012 (this is mainly due to Valencia HS now to be housing ALL of the Castaic students for the first time). In recent years Valencia High’s enrollment has also been continuing to increase due to the Hart District’s plan of bringing in additional students from the Castaic area until a new high school is built. Starting Fall 2010, in an effort to keep all of the Castaic area high school



students together, the Hart District decided to give Valencia HS all of the incoming 9th graders from Castaic until the new high school opens, hopefully in in time for the 2016 school year, and housing only 9th grade Castaic students to start (please see Table 7 on page 37). For Fall 2013, Valencia HS housed about half of the 1,490 9th-12th graders in the Castaic area, even though they are all supposed to go Valencia (many are still choosing to go to West Ranch). At one point, Valencia HS housed (with portables) just over 3,500 students (3,503 in 2003). To help offset some of this Castaic transferring, the Hart District has given a portion of the Valencia HS boundary, sometimes referred to as the “Mountain View” area, to Saugus HS, which started with 9th grade in Fall 2012 and added 10th graders in 2013.

With these additional Castaic area students continuing to enter Valencia High School, it’s enrollment could once again be approaching 3,500 students and higher. In fact, if all the Castaic area 9-12 students in 2013 went to Valencia, then Valencia’s enrollment would be well close to 3,600 students (530 Castaic area high schoolers went to West Ranch in 2013). According to the projections, the 2013 figures for the Valencia HS area should be its highest point. Starting in 2014, Valencia HS might start to see some slight relief as smaller grade class sizes begin to enter its area; however, resident counts are still expected to be near 3,700 in 2014. Hopefully a large number of those Castaic students decide to stay at West Ranch, which would also provide some much needed relief to Valencia HS. Starting in 2017, Valencia HS’s figures are expected to immediately drop as the new Castaic school starts to take on 9th grade students. By Fall 2020, when the Castaic area high school is fully operational, then Valencia HS could finally be experiencing resident counts below 2,300 (2,297 in 2020).

Adjustments to the projected Valencia HS figures can be made by taking a closer look at its current inter and intra-District transfer rates. As of Fall 2013, excluding the Castaic students, Valencia HS had 314 (or about 7.4%) of its 9-12 students enter the school from outside its attendance area (down from the 283 9-12 students in 2012) while 428 of its 9-12 resident students (19%) went to another District school (almost the same as the 427 9-12 students in 2012). This is a net reduction of 114 9-12 students. The largest group of outgoing 9-12 students from the Valencia area go to Saugus HS (151 9-12 students). It is strongly recommended that the Hart District begin to restrict the number of students entering Valencia from outside its boundary in order to continue to keep its enrollment figures as low as possible until the Castaic area high school is built. If the “transfer out” trend holds true for at least the next four years, then it can be possible to assume that the high projected Valencia HS figures from Fall 2014 - Fall 2016 can be reduced by at least 150-200 students annually, especially if new restrictive “transfer in” policies are in place. Another option to help reduce enrollment, may be to relocate certain programs from Valencia HS to other District facilities.

Valencia HS has had enrollment at 3,500 (Fall 2003), but it may be a challenge to house student counts above that figure. The Hart District may want to continue to look into having other schools temporarily help out Valencia HS, especially West Ranch HS. With a little assistance from other schools and some policy enforcement on “transfers in”, it does appear that Valencia HS should be able to accommodate its projected enrollment



over next seven years. However, if the opening of the Castaic area high school is further delayed, then the District may need to look at alternate plans to house the Castaic students. NEW SCHOOL COULD OPEN AS 9TH GRADE ONLY IN 2017 AND REACHES 1,325 9-12 BY FALL 2020

By Fall 2017 the Hart High School District is hoping to open a new high school in the Castaic area. For the Fall 2013 school year, the Castaic Area High School had a total of 1,490 9-12 students residing within its attendance area (all attending Valencia HS). For the last consecutive seven years, the Castaic area has had a declining 9-12 student population (1,500 in 2011, 1,571 in 2009 and in 2007 it had 1,690 9-12 students). Over the next four years, the student population in the Castaic region is expected to continue this decline. From 2013 to 2017, the projections show that the Castaic area could lose another 216 9-12 students, a 14.5% loss (or an average annual rate of -3.6%). This region contains two large housing projects: the northern portion of the Newhall Ranch project and the entire Northlake Specific Plan project. The Newhall Ranch projects could start generating students by late 2016 at the soonest, while the Northlake project has been removed from the projections due its uncertain status. Assuming that the Castaic area high school opens by Fall 2017 (with 9th grade only), and new the housing units in Newhall Ranch projects progress as planned, then the new Castaic area HS should easily be able to accommodate the enrollment through the scope of this report (1,325 9-12 students in Fall 2020) and beyond. Until the Castaic Area High School is in full 9-12 operation (not until Fall 2020), the Hart District has recently implemented a plan to have ALL of the Castaic students attend Valencia HS. Starting in 2010 all 9th graders from the Castaic area are to attend Valencia HS and that will continue until 2016. Please see Table 7 on page 37 for an exact layout of this plan. FLAT THE NEXT 2 YEARS, THEN STARTS TO INCREASE FOR THE NEXT FIVE (NET +340)

In order to better balance future enrollment, starting in Fall 2012, the Hart District took part of the Golden Valley High School attendance area and assigned it to Canyon High School (affecting only 9th and 10th graders by 2013). The Golden Valley High School area had a total of 2,517 resident students in Fall 2013, down by 53 at the same time last year (2,570 in 2012), yet only had 2,194 enrolled students, up by 16 compared to 2012 (2,178 in 2012). Almost 12.0% of Golden Valley’s Fall 2013 students (257) came from outside its boundary; however, 24.8% of its resident students (585) went to other District schools (the same figure for the other schools is typically 14 - 18%). Canyon HS alone takes 228 9-12 students from the Golden Valley area. Part of this discrepancy will be adjusted once the “new” boundaries take full effect by 2015 when the Golden Valley attendance area will be reduced (9th & 10th grades only in 2013). Currently, the Golden Valley HS area contains 2,517 9-12 students and then drops off to around 2,474 by 2014. At that point, slow but steady increases start by Fall 2015. By Fall 2016, the Golden Valley HS area could see its resident 9-12 student population start to rise and reach levels around 2,600 once again and even approach 2,700 by 2020; the increases are mainly due to new housing in the area. In Golden Valley’s new boundary, there are anticipated to be nearly 2,200 new housing units constructed over the next seven years, but most of it after 2015 (this includes JSB Development’s Vista Canyon Ranch, and Pardee’s Golden Valley Ranch, among others). The most students the Golden Valley HS has housed since its opening in 2004 is its 2011count of 2,219 9-12 students. The high “transfer out” rates that Golden



Valley has had historically (over 20% each year) points to the fact that the 2,200 level is probably close to is design capacity; it appears that the boundary may have already outgrown the schools’ capacity. The projections show a net growth of 180 9-12 students in Golden Valley HS’s area from 2015-2020. Therefore, it appears that Golden Valley HS should be able to house its projected students through 2015 (when the boundaries are fully implemented). The District will need to closely monitor Golden Valley’s resident counts and may need to continue to divert students to other neighboring schools such as Canyon or Hart if it exceeds its desired capacity or may need to add portables if its enrollment starts to grow (if more residents decide to “stay” at their home school). FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN YEARS (A NET DECLINE OF ONLY 89 9-12 STUDENTS)

The Hart District made an adjustment to Hart High School attendance area by giving it part of the West Ranch High School boundary. A large portion of West Ranch HS’s area east of I-5 and south of Lyons Avenue has been re-assigned to Hart High School and started to take effect in Fall 2012 with only new incoming 9th graders and then adding subsequent grades from that point on. By Fall 2015, the new boundaries will be in full effect for all 9-12 students. For Fall 2013, Hart High School had 2,238 9-12 students in its attendance area (up 7 from the 2,231 it had in 2012) while it had 2,175 enrolled (5 more than the 2,170 it had in 2012); very stable. According to the projections, Hart HS’s attendance area should vary between 2,148 (in 2019) to 2,308 (in 2015) resident 9-12 students over the next seven years. Since the attendance area is essentially built out, Hart High School’s resident students may continue at that level for several years beyond the projections. Hart HS’s enrollment and resident population had been in decline for many years and the school has been able to assist neighboring overcrowded schools through open enrollment. Almost 16% of Hart HS’s Fall 2013 students come from outside of its current attendance area (344 9-12 students), the highest figure among the District’s high schools. Hart High School has had enrollment close to 3,000 students (Fall 2003), so it should have no problems accommodating its enrollment for the next seven years and if these trends persist, then Hart HS should be able to continue to help to take on the overflow of impacted schools over the next four to seven years. COULD SEE STUDENT POPULATION PEAK BY 2015 (+115) THEN START TO SEE SOME DECLINES (NET -41)

To help offset eventual overcrowding in the Valencia High School area, the Hart District decided to move a large portion of the Valencia High School attendance area (sometimes referred to as the “Mountain View” area) to the Saugus High School boundary starting for the Fall 2012/13 school year (with 9th grade only and then adding the subsequent grades after 2012). As of Fall 2013, Saugus HS had 2,375 9-12 students attending (4 more than the 2,371 it had in 2012), while its boundary contained 2,630 students (up 109 from the 2,521 it had in 2012). A total of 10.6% of Saugus HS’s students (252 9-12 students) come from outside of its current attendance area, whereas 18.5% (486 9-12 students) “transfer out” of its area to go to other District schools. According to the seven year projections, the Saugus High School boundary could see its student population peak around the Fall 2015/16 school year with 2,748 students (a net growth of 118 9-12 students) and then see it drop off to around 2,589 by 2020 (a bit lower than its area has now in 2013). The Saugus HS boundary still has a substantial number of housing units planned in its region over the next seven years (nearly 1,250 mixed units including Toll Bros./Shapell’s and KB Home’s Plum Canyon projects as well as Lennar’s River Village projects), plus large areas of vacant land residentially zoned. If the projections prove to be true, Saugus High School can be approaching it highest enrollment in 2015 (very close to the 2,738 students it had in Fall 2005). Therefore, Saugus HS should be



able to accommodate the area’s growth over the next three years, especially if close to 18% of its resident students continue to attend other District schools. The District will need to closely monitor Saugus HS’s enrollment through 2016; by 2017 there should be some relief to its area. SLIGHT DECLINES OVER THE NEXT 4 YEARS, THEN MAJOR GROWTH POTENTIAL (NEWHALL RANCH)

West Ranch High School is the District’s newest site, and became a fully comprehensive 9-12 high school in Fall 2007. As of Fall 2013, West Ranch HS’s attendance area contained 1,969 9-12 resident students (down 28 from the 1,997 it had in 2012). Starting in 2012, a portion of the West Ranch HS boundary (east of I-5 and south of Lyons Avenue) was transferred over to Hart HS starting with 9th grade only and 10th grade was added in 2013 (which helps to explain the declines in its residents). West Ranch HS’s number of enrolled students was at 2,491 for 2012, down considerably from the 2,675 it had in 2012 and the 2,831 it had in 2011 – due mostly to the reduction of Castaic area students being diverted over to Valencia HS; see the plan on page 37 for housing the Castaic 9-12. Starting in 2010, the Hart District decided to send all of incoming 9th graders from the Castaic area only to Valencia HS (keeping them all in one school until the new high school is built). Therefore, that explains West Ranch’s dramatic enrollment drop for 2012 and 2013 when ALL Castaic students were supposed to be out of West Ranch HS and attending Valencia HS. However, there are still a large number of Castaic area students choosing to stay at West Ranch rather than to go to Valencia (530 9-12 students from the Castaic area attended West Ranch HS instead of going to Valencia – 35% of the Castaic 9-12 student population).

There is a considerable amount of residential development planned within the West Ranch area (including most of Newhall Ranch and the remainder of Stevenson Ranch), but it is not expected to begin until Fall 2016 and beyond. According to the projections, West Ranch HS could see its resident population drop to 1,993 by Fall 2014 and should range from 1,867-1,963 until 2018 when the additional housing units have started to generate more students. By 2018 the West Ranch HS area could have 2,048 and be back up to 2,738 9-12 residents by 2020 if the development builds as expected. Despite the eventual reduction of the Castaic students from West Ranch HS (especially when the Castaic area HS opens by 2017), West Ranch HS could start to have problems accommodating its resident population by 2020 and just beyond.

Once started, the Newhall Ranch projects are expected to continue to build for 15-20 years (some of Newhall Ranch is in the Castaic HS area), with the start of the units reaching the West Ranch area as early as 2018. Once all of the units in its area are constructed and mature, the West Ranch HS area could have enough students to support two high schools, or one in additional to existing West Ranch HS (see DDP’s Fall 2005 Report for the maturation counts for each high school area). Therefore, it appears that an additional site should be needed to be built within West Ranch’s current boundary maybe not long after the scope of these seven years projections (sometime around 2020).



High School (9-12) Conclusions

Excluding about 1,031 9-12 students currently attending special District schools/programs (Academy of the Canyons, Bowman Continuation HS, Learning Post, Sequoia Charter and Non-District students), then the average sized high school in 2013 was 2,466 9-12 students (14,797 / six comprehensive sites). The Hart District is planning on building a Castaic area high school (high school #7) and is hoping to open the new HS school by 2017 (first housing only 9th graders and then adding grades in subsequent years). By Fall 2020, the average high school could be closer to 2,188 9-12 students when the Castaic area high school is in full operation (a 9-12 school). If the “ideal” sized high school is around 2,200-2,500 students, then it would be quite a long time after these projections (well beyond Fall 2020) when the Hart District will need another comprehensive high school. However, if a new high school is needed by 2020, it most likely would be in the western portion of the District (especially within the Newhall Ranch area).

Currently, the main issue of concern is housing the high school population in the

Castaic area for the next five years. Currently, the Castaic area contains 1,490 9-12 students (up a bit from the 1,478 it had in 2012, there were 1,571 9-12 students in 2009) and should continue to see a decline in its population through Fall 2017, where it may drop down close to as low as 1,275 9-12 students and then see some small increases. In previous projection reports (about 5 years ago) there had been a large amount of growth in the Castaic area. However, with the changes in the economy, completion of certain housing projects, drastic declines in new housing sales and various large projects being delayed or removed altogether, this has resulted in a sharp reduction in the potential growth in the Castaic area for the next seven years.

Starting in Fall 2012, the Hart District has implemented new high school attendance

boundaries (starting with 9th graders). The main purpose of the boundary changes was to better balance the eventual enrollment for all the District’s schools and relieve the certain impacted sites (most notably Valencia, West Ranch and Canyon HS’s). In Fall 2013 there were 3,832 9-12 grade students living within Valencia’s current attendance area if you include all of the 9th-12th graders from the Castaic area. According to current trends, with the implementation of Valencia’s new attendance area and the housing of the Castaic area high school students, there could still be nearly 3,600 9-12 students in Valencia’s area by Fall 2015. Once the Castaic area high school opens (possibly as soon as Fall 2017) Valencia HS should start to see its enrollment drop off dramatically. In fact if all goes as planned, by Fall 2020, Valencia’s resident population could be back down to 2,297. By 2020 West Ranch HS’s area could be at 2,738 and growing while Canyon HS could be leveling off around 2,475. However, the Saugus HS area could be the next most impacted school, reaching a peak resident number around 2,750 by 2016 and then dropping below 2,600 by 2020.

There are other pressing issues that face the Hart District including how it will house

the projected resident counts for Saugus, Valencia and Golden Valley HS’s over the next seven years. At its peak, Saugus High School housed over 2,700 9-12 students (2,738 in 2005) and Valencia HS once housed 3,503 students in 2003. Policy changes regarding



restricting or limiting transfers into these schools may be necessary. In addition, the relocation of certain programs from the Valencia and Saugus campuses may also be required. Currently, 18.5% (486 9-12 students) of Saugus HS’s students “transfer out” to go to another District facility and 19.0% (428 9-12 students) of Valencia’s students go elsewhere. Golden Valley HS actually has the District’s highest “transfer out” rate; nearly 25% of its students (585!) go to another District school. The District seems to want to cap Golden Valley’s enrollment to around 2,200. So if all of these transfer trends are allowed to continue and the District implements some of the other actions mentioned above, then the District should be able to manage the enrollment over the next seven years at these three schools.

Focusing on the last three years of the projections (Fall 2018-2020) you could start

to see a pattern where additional high schools could eventually be needed just beyond the scope of these projections (after 2020). With the projected growth for the Canyon, Golden Valley and Saugus High School areas, another high school site (#8) may eventually be needed either in the northeast or southeast portion of the District. The Newhall Ranch project is expected to start producing large amounts of new students by 2018 and should continue for another 15-20 years. Newhall Ranch, the remainder of Stevenson Ranch and the housing to be built around Magic Mountain (Entrada) points towards a need for another high school site (#9) on the west side of the District, somewhere within the current West Ranch High School boundary, again sometime beyond the 2020 timeframe of this report. The Hart District will need to closely monitor the housing sales and growth in student population to determine which one of these future sites may be needed first and when. The order in which a particular school is constructed can be adjusted due to shifting demographic trends, changes in the economy and the unpredictability of the housing market. Therefore the exact timing and order of construction of any new school facility is subject to change.


March 14, 2014 Section Seven – Page 48

SECTION SEVEN

The Fall 2013 “Opportunity For Learning” Students

For the 13th consecutive year, the Hart High School District requested that DDP look into the students currently attending the two Opportunity for Learning (OFL) school sites located within the Hart District. These are public schools operated under a charter granted by the Wm. S. Hart Union High School District. These schools house only 7th through 12th grade students that could, at some point in a given school year, re-enter the Hart District schools. For the 3rd consecutive year, the number of OFL students in the Hart District area has declined. DDP was able to locate the 335 7th-12th grade Fall 2013 OFL students that live within Hart’s boundaries (there were 404 in 2012, 431 in 2011, 542 in 2010, 545 in 2009, 549 in Fall 2008 and 514 OFL 7-12 students for Fall 2007). As of Fall 2013 (October), there were 11 7-8 students and 324 9-12 students attending these two charter school sites living within Hart’s area. Table 8 below gives the breakdown of how these grade groupings are distributed within the current Hart District attendance boundaries.

Student data in the table above was acquired by DDP in October 2013 from the Opportunity for Learning. The above table is based upon the new Wm. S. Hart Union HSD attendance boundaries for the Fall 2013 school year.

The 7-8 OFL population living in the Hart District area had stayed around 35 a number of years, then dropped to 19 in 2011 and is now down to 11. The 9-12 OFL population had remained about the low 500’s from 2008-2010, has dropped significantly the last three years (419 in 2011, 376 in 2012 and 324 in 2013). If these two charter school sites were to cease operation, then it may be likely that the students attending these schools would re-enter the Hart District. However, since it appears that the OFL program is planning to continue running these two facilities for the next seven years (the span of this projection report) using the same manner in which it is currently operating in association with the Hart District, then DDP has chosen to not include these 335 students in the projections. The Hart District can assume that approximately the same number of students will be attending the OFL school sites each year and/or can use the percentage breakdowns by attendance area to estimate a certain number of these students to enter their District. The data provided in Table 8 is useful and interesting data, but it is not appropriate to incorporate these 335 students into the District’s student projections since they are technically not attending a Hart District facility as of October 2013 (CBEDS date).

TABLE 8 Breakdown of Fall 2013 “Opportunity for Learning” 7th-12th Grade Students Living within the William S. Hart Union High School District’s Boundaries

Jr. High Boundary (new boundary)

7th-8th Students

High School Boundary (new boundary)

9th-12th Students

Arroyo Seco Jr. High 5 (45.5%) Saugus High 59 (18.2%) Castaic Middle School 0 (0.0%) Castaic Area High 38 (11.7%)

La Mesa Jr. High 0 (0.0%) Golden Valley High 67 (20.7%) Placerita Jr. High 1 (9.1%) Hart High 38 (11.7%)

Sierra Vista Jr. High 4 (36.3%) Canyon High 73 (22.6%) Rio Norte Jr. High 1 (9.1%) Valencia High 28 (8.6%)

Rancho Pico Jr. High 0 (0.0 %) West Ranch High 21 (6.5%) TOTALS 11 (100.0%) TOTALS 324 (100.0%)


March 14, 2014 Appendix A – Page 49

School Codes DDP has assigned each school a unique code. Each study area is then coded with the elementary, middle and high school that the area is assigned to attend. The schools listed are those that were in existence as of the Fall 2013/14 school year.

* = Only Schools with assigned attendance areas are listed

CASTAIC USD (K-8)* School Name (Grade Range) Code Castaic Elementary (K-5) 41 Live Oak Elementary (K-5) 43 Northlake Hills Elementary (K-5) 44 Castaic Middle (6-8) 42

NEWHALL SD (K-6)* School Name (Grade Range) Code McGrath Elementary (K-6) 18 Meadows Elementary (K-6) 5 Newhall Elementary (K-6) 1 Oak Hills Elementary (K-6) 21 Old Orchard Elementary (K-6) 4 Peachland Elementary (K-6) 2 Pico Canyon Elementary (K-6) 19 Stevenson Ranch Elementary (K-6) 8 Valencia Valley Elementary (K-6) 6 Wiley Canyon Elementary (K-6) 3

SAUGUS SD (K-6)* School Name (Grade Range) Code Bouquet Canyon Elementary (K-6) 10 Bridgeport Elementary (K-6) 16 Cedarcreek Elementary (K-6) 51 Emblem Elementary (K-6) 69 Entrada Elementary Future Site (K-6) 26 Foster Elementary (K-6) 24 Helmers Elementary (K-6) 12 Highlands Elementary (K-6) 60 Mountain View Elementary (K-6) 14 Northpark Elementary (K-6) 13 Plum Canyon Elementary (K-6) 9 Rio Vista Elementary (K-6) 85 Rosedell Elementary (K-6) 93 Santa Clarita Elementary (K-6) 11 Skyblue Mesa Elementary (K-6) 27 Tesoro del Valle Elementary (K-6) 22 West Creek Elementary (K-6) 23

SULPHUR SPRINGS EUSD (K-6)* School Name (Grade Range) Code Canyon Springs Community School (K-6) 77 Fair Oaks Ranch Community School (K-6) 84 Golden Oak Community School (K-6) 98 Leona Cox Community School (K-6) 83 Mint Canyon Community School (K-6) 91 Mitchell Community School (K-6) 7 Pinetree Community School (K-6) 15 Sulphur Springs Community School (K-6) 17 Valley View Community School (K-6) 82

WM. S. HART UNION HSD (7-12)* Junior High School Name (Grade Range)

Code

Arroyo Seco Jr. High (7-8) 64 La Mesa Jr. High (7-8) 40 Placerita Jr. High (7-8) 72 Rancho Pico Jr. High (7-8) 89 Rio Norte Jr. High (7-8) 88 Sierra Vista Jr. High (7-8) 45 High School Name (Grade Range)* Code Canyon High (9-12) 87 Future Castaic Area High School Site (9-12) 94 Golden Valley High (9-12) 90 Hart High (9-12) 25 Saugus High (9-12) 20 Valencia High (9-12) 30 West Ranch High (9-12) 92


March 14, 2014 Appendix A– Page 50

Study Areas by Schools Breakdown of the Study Areas that Comprise Each Elementary Attendance Area

SCHOOL DISTRICT

UNIQUE SCHOOL

ID ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDY AREAS FOR EACH

ATTENDANCE AREA

# OF STUDY AREAS

Castaic USD 41 Castaic Elementary 5A,5L,5M,5N,5P,5Q,5R,5T 8 Castaic USD 43 Live Oak Elementary 3A,5B,5C,5F,5J,5K,6B,7B,8A,8B,8C,8D,8E,8F,9,10,11 17 Castaic USD 44 Northlake Hills Elementary 1,2A,2B,2C,3,4,5D,5E,5G,5H,5U,6A,7A 13

Newhall SD 18 McGrath Elementary 140B,153C,154A,154B,154C,154D,

154E,154G,157A,157B,158,159 12

Newhall SD 5 Meadows Elementary 102A,106A,106C,106D,108,109,110,111,112,

117A,120,121,122,123,124,125,126,127 18

Newhall SD 1 Newhall Elementary 119,128,135,136,138,139,140A,151,152,153A 10 Newhall SD 21 Oak Hills Elementary 100A,100F 2 Newhall SD 4 Old Orchard Elementary 129,130,131,132,133,134,154F,154H 8 Newhall SD 2 Peachland Elementary 147,148,150,153B,156 5 Newhall SD 19 Pico Canyon Elementary 100,100C,100D,100E,101,101A,144,144B 8 Newhall SD 8 Stevenson Ranch Elementary 100B 1

Newhall SD 6 Valencia Valley Elementary 102,103,104,104A,105,106,106B,107,

113,114,115,116,117,118 14

Newhall SD 3 Wiley Canyon Elementary 137,144A,144C,145,146,149,150A,155,156A 9

Saugus SD 10 Bouquet Canyon Elementary 14C,14R,14S,14T,14U,14V,15A,17,17A 9 Saugus SD 16 Bridgeport Elementary 12,19C,19E,19H,30I,35,43,44,45,46 10 Saugus SD 51 Cedarcreek Elementary 40,41,54 3 Saugus SD 69 Emblem Elementary 14L,14P,36A,36B,38A,38B,47,48,49A,49B,50 11

Saugus SD 26 Entrada Elementary Site (Future School not open, yet)

42 1

Saugus SD 24 Foster Elementary 21,23A,23B,23C 4

Saugus SD 12 Helmers Elementary 19M,20H,20I,20J,20K,20L,30A,30B,30C,30D,

30E,30F,30G,30H,30J,30K,30L,30M,30N 19

Saugus SD 60 Highlands Elementary 25,33,34A 3 Saugus SD 14 Mountain View Elementary 14B,14F,14G,14H,14I,14J,14K,14M,14N,14Q 10 Saugus SD 13 Northpark Elementary 13,14D,19B,19D,19N,20A,20B,20C,20D,20E,20F,20G 12 Saugus SD 9 Plum Canyon Elementary 13A,15,16A,16B,18, 28,29A,29B,29E,29G,29H,29J 12 Saugus SD 85 Rio Vista Elementary 49,51,52,53,56 5 Saugus SD 93 Rosedell Elementary 14E,24,24A,26,27,27A,34B,37 8 Saugus SD 11 Santa Clarita Elementary 14W,22,31A,31B,31C,31D,31E,32 8 Saugus SD 27 Skyblue Mesa Elementary 29D,29F, 39 3 Saugus SD 22 Tesoro del Valle Elementary 14A,19A,19G,19J,19K,19L 6 Saugus SD 23 West Creek Elementary 19F,19P 2

Sulphur Springs SD 77 Canyon Springs CS 55B,55C,55D,57,58,85A,85B,86,91A,91B 10 Sulphur Springs SD 84 Fair Oaks Ranch CS 89A, 90B, 90C, 90D, 93B, 93C, 93D, 93E 10 Sulphur Springs SD 98 Golden Oak CS 88, 93A, 93F, 141, 142, 143 Sulphur Springs SD 83 Leona Cox CS 29C,55A,71,72A,72B,81A,81B,81C 8

Sulphur Springs SD 91 Mint Canyon CS 60,61,62,63,64,64A,67A,67B,68,

73A,73B,74A,74B,74C,74D,75A,76C 17

Sulphur Springs SD 7 Mitchell CS 75,76A,76B,77,82A,82B,83,84A,84B,92B 10 Sulphur Springs SD 15 Pinetree CS 65A,65B,65C,66A,69,78A,78B,78C,78D,79A,79B,79C,80 13

Sulphur Springs SD 17 Sulphur Springs CS 66,66B,66C,66D,66E,70A,70B,70C,92,92A,

92C,94,94A,95,95A,95B,95C,95D,96,97 20

Sulphur Springs SD 82 Valley View CS 59, 87, 88A, 88B, 88C,89, 90A, 90E, 90F 13 39 Elementary Schools 355 Study Areas Total

RAILROAD AVE

POTRERO CANYON RD

THE OLD RDCHIQ

UITO

CANY

ONRD

THE OLD RD

SAN MARTINEZ RD

THE OLDRD

VASQUEZ CANYON RD

GOLDEN VALLEY RD

GOLDEN STATE FRWY

RYE CANYON RD

AGUA

DULC

ECA

NYON

RD

PLACERITA CANYON RD

COPP

ERHIL

L DR

GOLDEN STATE FRWY

HENRY MAYO DR

THEOLDRD

ANTELO

PE VALLE

Y FRWY

SIERR

A HWY

VALENCIA BLVD

DEL VALLE RD

RIDGE ROUTE RD

SANDCANYONRD

SIERRA HWY

VIA PRINCESSA

SECO

CAN Y

ONRD

HASLEY CANYON RD

THE OLD ROAD

SIERRA HWY

PLUM CANYON RD

DAVENPORT RD

HENRY MAYO DR

THE OLDRD

SIERRA HWY

PICO CANYON RD

NEWHALL RANCH RD

COMMERCE CENTER DR

THE

OLD

RD

VALENCIA BLVD

NEWHALL RANCH RD

SIERR

A HWY

LAKE HUGHES RD

GOLDENVALLEY RD

SIERRA HWY

HENRY MAYO DR

MCBEAN PKWY

LITTLE TUJUNGA RD

SIERR

A HWY

SAN

FRAN

CISQ

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CANY

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BOUQ

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23B 2414U

14V 17A24A

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29A27A14E20G20E

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25 26 2720F

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90C

55B72A

72B

23C

29C

19N

20H20I

33

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13

13A

3

60

3A 7A

14D

62

6A

5C15

5M14W14H14F

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618A 19A

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6B

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14G14B19K 16A

5D

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93B93F

66A

66

14I14K

19F

19J 14J20A

19G 14M14R

14S14N15A 17 18

19B

20B20C

20D64

14T

14Q

5E

23A

70B

30E

140B

39A

34B34A20L

20J 32

37

20K

30A

64A29F30B

31A31B

30K

30M30L31D

31C

38B31E

42

90E

55C

66B

93C100A

8030D 30H

7730G

97

76A75A

30N

19C 30F 30I 414035

36B 95B7538A30J95A12

90F90A

55D

66E76C

55A5251

140A

4445 92A

43

49A545347 48 92C

50

56

8346 92

92B

100F

94

67B65C

84A84B

85B85A

8888C

19M

105 5857

119104A

90D

59

86103 106 107 89A102 8987

128106B 114 115 88A106D 106A 113

106C 112118116 117

74A

93A127

117A102A

108 111

143

125 88B100B

110126

109

95D

123

94A

121

120101

141137124101A

142

100D135

122100C 131

132133

138129 136

150

134100 139

100E 130144B

144

152

144A

154E153B

159

151

156

148154D147

146145 154F

158

154A154H

157A

154C

157B154B 154G

36A

150A

155

156A

90B 93D

81B81C81A

29G

29D

7173B

73A

91B 91A74D

74B74C

78C

65A

65B

70C

76B

66C

93E

49

14A

78A 79A

153C

70A

82B82A

95

95C

66D

78D

78B

79B79C

49B

19E

19D22

21 14P

109

8C

8B

11

5B5F

104

149

29E

153A

19H

5H

5G

4 2A

16B 63

67A

5K

5J

8D

8E

8F

5A 5L

5T5P 5Q 5R 5N

5U

2C

2B

19P

29J29H

144C

30C

39B

29K

28A

I

StreetsHighways

Major Roads

Ramp

Surface Streets

Rivers

Railroads


Feeder District Boundary

Lakes

NEWHALLSCHOOLDISTRICT

CASTAICSCHOOLDISTRICT

SULPHUR SPRINGSSCHOOLDISTRICT

SAUGUSSCHOOLDISTRICT

Wm S. Hart Union High School District

1 inch = 1.44 miles

Map prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.March 2014Source: Study Area Map for Report.mxd

1.5 0 1.50.75 Miles


BOUQ

UETCA

NYON RD

LAKE HUGHES RD

SOLEDAD CANYON RDHENRY MAYO DR

THE OLD RD

THE OLD ROAD

97

97

60

Page 51



Study Areas by Schools (continued)

CURRENT (“OLD”) HIGH SCHOOL BOUNDARIES [to be completely phased out by Fall 2015]

Breakdown of the Study Areas that Comprise Each Junior and High School Attendance Area

SCHOOL DISTRICT

SCHOOL CODES

PAIRED JR. HIGH AND HIGH SCHOOL NAMES

STUDY AREAS FOR EACH ATTENDANCE AREA

29C,29D,38A,38B,39A,39B,40,41,54, 55A,55B,55C,55D, William S. Hart 45 Sierra Vista Jr. High School 64A,65A,65B,65C,66,66A,66B,66C,66D,66E,69,

Union High 87 Canyon High School 70A,70B,70C,71,72A,72B,75,76B,76C,77,78A,78B, School District 78C,78D,79A,79B,79C,80,81A,81B,81C,82A,82B,83,

84A,84B,92A,92C,94,94A,95,95A,95B,95C,95D,96,97

61 Study Areas Castaic USD 42 Castaic Middle School 1,2A,2B,2C,3,3A,4,5A,5B,5C,5D,5E,5F,5G,5H,5J,5K,5L,

5M,5N,5P,5Q,5R,5T,5U,6A,6B,7A,7B,8A,8B,8C,8D,8E, 8F,9,10,11

Wm. S. Hart 94 Castaic Area High School Union HSD (Planning to be 9-12 by Fall 2020)

38 Study Areas

49,49B,50,51,52,53,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,67A,67B, William S. Hart 40 La Mesa Jr. High School 68,73A,73B,74A,74B,74C,74D,75A,76A,85A,85B,86,87,

Union High 90 Golden Valley High School 88,88A,88B,88C,89,89A,90A,90B,90C,90D,90E,90F,91A, School District 91B,92,92B,93A,93B,93C,93D,93E,93F,141,142,143,

154A,154B,154C,154D,154E,154G,157A,157B,158,159

65 Study Areas

102,102A,103,104,104A,105,106,106A,106B,106C, William S. Hart 72 Placerita Jr. High School 106D,107,108,109,110,111,112,113,114,115,116,

Union High 25 Hart High School 117,117A,118,119,120,121,122,123,124,125,126,127, School District 128,129,130,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140A,

140B,147,148,150,151,152,153A,153B,153C,154F,154H,156 58 Study Areas 13A,14C,14E,14R,14S,14T,14U,14V,15,15A,

William S. Hart 64 Arroyo Seco Jr. High School 16A,16B,17,17A,18,21,22,23A,23B,23C,24, Union High 20 Saugus High School 24A,25, 26, 27,27A,28A,28B,29A,29B,29E,29F,

School District 29G,29H,29J,29K,31A,31B,31C,31D,31E,32, 33,34A,34B,36A,36B,37,47,48,49A

51 Study Areas

13,14A,14B,14D,14F,14G,14H,14I,14J,14K,14L, William S. Hart 88 Rio Norte Jr. High School 14M,14N,14P,14Q,14W,19A,19B,19C,19D,19E,

Union High 30 Valencia High School 19F,19G,19H,19J,19K,19L,19M,19N,19P,20A,20B,20C, School District 20D,20E,20F,20G,20H,20I,20J, 20K,20L,30A,30B,

30C,30D,30E,30F,30G,30H,30I,30J,30K,30L,30M, 30N,35,45,46, 59 Study Areas

William S. Hart 12,42,43,44,100,100A,100B,100C,100D, Union High 89 Rancho Pico Jr. High School 100E,100F,101,101A,144,144A.144B, 144C,

School District 92 West Ranch High School 145,146,149,150A,155,156A 23 Study Areas 7 Jr. High Schools / 7 High Schools 355 Study Areas Total

RA ILROADAVE

SOLEDAD CANYON RD

POTRERO CANYON RD

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AHWY

THE OLD RD

SAN MARTINEZ RD

THE OLD RD

SIERRA HWY

VASQUEZ CANYON RD

COOL

IDGE

AV

LYONS AV

GOLDEN VALLEY RD

GOLDEN STATE FRWY

RYE CANYON RD

AGUA DULCE CANYON RD

MAGIC MOUNTAIN PKWY

ESCONDIDO CANYON RD



SOLEDAD CANYON RD

PLACERITA CANYON RD

COPP

ERHILL DR

MCBEAN PKWY

GOLDEN STATE FRWY

HENRY MAYO DR

THE OLD ROAD

THE O

LD R

OAD

HENRY MAYO DR

THE

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VALENCIA BLVD

DECORO DR

SOLEDAD CANYON RD

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DEL VALLE RD SIERRA HWY

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SIERRA HWY

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D

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SECO

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INCESSA

HASLEY CANYON RD

SOLEDAD CANYON RD

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COPPER HILL DR

VIA PRINCESSA

DAVENPORT RD

HENRY MAYO DR

GOLDENSTATE FRWY

STEV

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SIERRA HWY

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E NST

ATE

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N RD

HASLEY CANYON RD

SIERRA HWY

BOUQUET CANYON RD

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MCBEA

N PKW

Y

PICO CANYON RD

NEWHALL RANCH RDNEWHALL RANCH RD

THE

OLD

RD

DECORO DRCOPPER HILL DR

WHITES CANYON RD

VALENCIA BLVD

COPPER HILL DR

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GOLDEN VALLEY RD

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A HWY

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BOUQ

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RDMap Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.Updated March 2014Source: Hart_Old_Boundary_Map for Report.mxd

WEST RANCH HSGOLDEN VALLEY HS

CANYON HS

SAUGUS HS

VALENCIA HS

HART HS

CASTAIC AREA HS(To Open Fall 2017)

Wm. S. Hart Union High School DistrictZoomed-In View of the New

Junior High and High School Attendance Areas(Approved by the Hart School Board in September 2009)

JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL ARE NOWUSING THE NEW BOUNDARIES

In 2013, only the 11th and 12th Graders areUsing these "Old" Boundaries

Until the Castaic High School opensin Fall 2017, all Castaic Area 9th grade

students will be attending Valencia High School.Please see the Hart District website for

any updates regarding this process.

Railroad

Rivers

Lakes

Streets

CANYON HS

CASTAIC AREA HS

GOLDEN VALLEY HS

HART HS

SAUGUS HS

VALENCIA HS

Current "Old" Attendance Areas

WEST RANCH HS

2 0 21 Miles

1 inch = 1.61 miles

I

Page 53

(" OLD") BOUNDARIES(For 11th & 12th Graders Only)

CANYON HS

GOLDEN VALLEY HS



Study Areas by Schools (continued)

NEW BOUNDARIES (Started in Fall 2010 with 7th grade and then adding a grade a year) Breakdown of the Study Areas that Comprise Each Junior and High School Attendance Area

BOLD = Study Areas that changed

SCHOOL DISTRICT

SCHOOL CODES

PAIRED JR. HIGH AND HIGH SCHOOL NAMES

STUDY AREAS FOR EACH ATTENDANCE AREA

29C,29D,38A,38B,39A,39B,40,41,54, 55A,55B,55C,55D, 60,61,62,63,64,64A,65A,65B,65C,66,66A,66B,66C,

William S. Hart 45 Sierra Vista Jr. High School 66D,66E,67A,67B,68,69,70A,70B,70C,71,72A,72B, Union High 87 Canyon High School 73A,73B,74A,74B,74C,74D,75,75A,76A,76B,76C,77,78A,

School District 78B,78C,78D,79A,79B,79C,80,81A,81B,81C,82A,82B,83, 84A,84B,92A,92C,94,94A,95,95A,95B,95C,95D,96,97

77 Study Areas Castaic USD 42 Castaic Middle School 1,2A,2B,2C,3,3A,4,5A,5B,5C,5D,5E,5F,5G,5H,5J,5K,5L,

5M,5N,5P,5Q,5R,5T,5U,6A,6B,7A,7B,8A,8B,8C,8D,8E, 8F,9,10,11

Wm. S. Hart 94 Castaic Area High School Union HSD (Planning to open by Fall 2015 for 9th)

38 Study Areas

49,49B,50,51,52,53,56,57,58,59,85A,85B,86,87, William S. Hart 40 La Mesa Jr. High School 88,88A,88B,88C,89,89A,90A,90B,90C,90D,90E,90F,91A,

Union High 90 Golden Valley High School 91B,92,92B,93A,93B,93C,93D,93E,93F,141,142,143, School District 154A,154B,154C,154D,154E,154G,157A,157B,158,159

49 Study Areas

102,102A,103,104,104A,105,106,106A,106B,106C, William S. Hart 72 Placerita Jr. High School 106D,107,108,109,110,111,112,113,114,115,116,

Union High 25 Hart High School 117,117A,118,119,120,121,122,123,124,125,126,127, School District 128,129,130,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140A,

140B,145,146,147,148,149,150,150A,151,152,153A,153B, 153C,154F,154H,155,156,156A 64 Study Areas 13A,14B,14C,14E,14H,14J,14K,14L,14M,14N,14P,14Q,

William S. Hart 64 Arroyo Seco Jr. High School 14R,14S,14T,14U,14V,14W,15,15A,16A,16B,17,17A, Union High 20 Saugus High School 18,21,22,23A,23B,23C,24,24A,25, 26, 27,27A,

School District 28A,28B,29A,29B,29E,29F,29G,29H,29J,29K,31A,31B, 31C,31D,31E,32,33,34A,34B,36A,36B,37,47,48,49A

61 Study Areas

13,14A,14D,14F,14G,14I,19A,19B,19C,19D,19E, William S. Hart 88 Rio Norte Jr. High School 19F,19G,19H,19J,19K,19L,19M,19N,19P,20A,20B,20C,

Union High 30 Valencia High School 20D,20E,20F,20G,20H,20I,20J, 20K,20L,30A,30B, School District 30C,30D,30E,30F,30G,30H,30I,30J,30K,30L,30M,

30N,35,45,46, 49 Study Areas

William S. Hart 89 Rancho Pico Jr. High School 12,42,43,44,100,100A,100B,100C,100D, Union High 92 West Ranch High School 100E,100F,101,101A,144,144A.144B, 144C,

School District 17 Study Areas 7 Jr. High Schools / 7 High Schools 355 Study Areas Total

RA ILROADAVE

SOLEDAD CANYON RD

POTRERO CANYON RD

SIERR

AHWY

THE OLD RD

SAN MARTINEZ RD

THE OLD RD

SIERRA HWY

VASQUEZ CANYON RD

COOL

IDGE

AV

LYONS AV

GOLDEN VALLEY RD

GOLDEN STATE FRWY

RYE CANYON RD

AGUA DULCE CANYON RD

MAGIC MOUNTAIN PKWY

ESCONDIDO CANYON RD



SOLEDAD CANYON RD

PLACERITA CANYON RD

COPP

ERHILL DR

MCBEAN PKWY

GOLDEN STATE FRWY

HENRY MAYO DR

THE OLD ROAD

THE O

LD R

OAD

HENRY MAYO DR

THE

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RD



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SOLEDAD CANYON RD

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DEL VALLE RD SIERRA HWY

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SIERRA HWY

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SIERRA HWY

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SIERRA HWY

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VIA PRINCESSA

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HENRY MAYO DR

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N RD

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SIERRA HWY

BOUQUET CANYON RD

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MCBEA

N PKW

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PICO CANYON RD

NEWHALL RANCH RDNEWHALL RANCH RD

THE

OLD

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DECORO DRCOPPER HILL DR

WHITES CANYON RD

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SIERR

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LLEY

RD

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BOUQ

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RDMap Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.Updated March 2014Source: Hart_HS_NewBoundaries.mxd

RANCHO PICO JHSWEST RANCH HS

LA MESA JHSGOLDEN VALLEY HS

SIERRA VISTA JHSCANYON HS

ARROYO SECO JHSSAUGUS HS

RIO NORTE JHSVALENCIA HS

PLACERITA JHSHART HS

CASTAIC AREA HS(To Open Fall 2017)


Junior High and High School Attendance Areas(Approved by the Hart School Board in September 2009)

Until the Castaic High School opensin Fall 2017, all Castaic Area 9th grade

students will be attending Valencia High School.Please see the Hart District website for

any updates regarding this process.

Railroad

Rivers

Lakes

Streets

CANYON HS

CASTAIC AREA HS

GOLDEN VALLEY HS

HART HS

SAUGUS HS

VALENCIA HS

HS Attendance Areas

WEST RANCH HS

2 0 21 Miles

1 inch = 1.61 miles

I

Page 55

NEW BOUNDARIES



Study Area Projections by Residence Study Area 1 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Study Area 2A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 22.0 25.7 24.2 22.1 23.2 23.6 23.3 23.1 1 18.0 22.4 26.2 24.6 22.4 23.6 24.0 23.7 2 25.0 17.8 22.1 25.8 24.3 22.2 23.3 23.7 3 16.0 24.6 17.5 21.7 25.4 23.9 21.8 22.9 4 16.0 15.8 24.3 17.3 21.4 25.1 23.6 21.5 5 18.0 15.6 15.4 23.7 16.9 21.0 24.5 23.0 6 16.0 17.7 15.4 15.2 23.3 16.6 20.6 24.1 7 19.0 15.7 17.4 15.1 14.9 22.9 16.3 20.2 8 23.0 18.7 15.4 17.1 14.8 14.7 22.5 16.0 9 21.0 23.0 18.7 15.4 17.1 14.8 14.7 22.5 10 28.0 20.3 22.2 18.1 14.9 16.5 14.4 14.2 11 29.0 27.1 19.7 21.5 17.5 14.4 16.0 13.9 12 23.0 28.7 26.9 19.5 21.3 17.3 14.3 15.9 K-6 131.0 139.6 145.1 150.4 156.9 156.0 161.1 162.0 7-8 42.0 34.4 32.8 32.2 29.7 37.6 38.8 36.2 9-12 101.0 99.1 87.5 74.5 70.8 63.0 59.4 66.5 K-12 274.0 273.1 265.4 257.1 257.4 256.6 259.3 264.7



Study Area 2B Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 14.0 16.4 15.4 14.0 14.8 15.0 14.8 14.7 1 14.0 14.2 16.6 15.7 14.3 15.0 15.3 15.1 2 14.0 13.8 14.1 16.4 15.5 14.1 14.8 15.1 3 15.0 13.8 13.6 13.8 16.2 15.2 13.9 14.6 4 6.0 14.8 13.6 13.4 13.6 16.0 15.0 13.7 5 19.0 5.9 14.5 13.3 13.1 13.3 15.6 14.7 6 10.0 18.7 5.8 14.2 13.1 12.9 13.1 15.4 7 14.0 9.8 18.3 5.7 14.0 12.8 12.7 12.9 8 13.0 13.8 9.6 18.0 5.6 13.7 12.6 12.5 9 10.0 13.0 13.8 9.6 18.0 5.6 13.7 12.6 10 16.0 9.7 12.6 13.3 9.3 17.5 5.4 13.3 11 17.0 15.5 9.4 12.2 12.9 9.0 16.9 5.2 12 17.0 16.8 15.3 9.3 12.1 12.8 8.9 16.7 K-6 92.0 97.6 93.6 100.8 100.6 101.5 102.5 103.3 7-8 27.0 23.6 27.9 23.7 19.6 26.5 25.3 25.4 9-12 60.0 55.0 51.1 44.4 52.3 44.9 44.9 47.8 K-12 179.0 176.2 172.6 168.9 172.5 172.9 172.7 176.5 Study Area 2C Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 14.0 16.4 15.4 14.0 14.8 15.0 14.8 14.7 1 18.0 14.2 16.6 15.7 14.3 15.0 15.3 15.1 2 13.0 17.8 14.1 16.4 15.5 14.1 14.8 15.1 3 17.0 12.8 17.5 13.8 16.2 15.2 13.9 14.6 4 15.0 16.8 12.6 17.3 13.6 16.0 15.0 13.7 5 18.0 14.7 16.4 12.3 16.9 13.3 15.6 14.7 6 23.0 17.7 14.4 16.1 12.1 16.6 13.1 15.4 7 19.0 22.5 17.4 14.1 15.8 11.9 16.3 12.9 8 12.0 18.7 22.2 17.1 13.9 15.6 11.7 16.0 9 18.0 12.0 18.7 22.2 17.1 13.9 15.6 11.7 10 20.0 17.4 11.6 18.1 21.4 16.5 13.5 15.1 11 11.0 19.4 16.8 11.2 17.5 20.8 16.0 13.0 12 17.0 10.9 19.2 16.7 11.1 17.3 20.6 15.9 K-6 118.0 110.4 107.0 105.6 103.4 105.2 102.5 103.3 7-8 31.0 41.2 39.6 31.2 29.7 27.5 28.0 28.9 9-12 66.0 59.7 66.3 68.2 67.1 68.5 65.7 55.7 K-12 215.0 211.3 212.9 205.0 200.2 201.2 196.2 187.9



Study Area 3 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Study Area 3A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0









Study Area 5D Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 21.0 24.5 23.1 21.1 22.2 22.6 22.2 22.0 1 18.0 21.4 25.0 23.5 21.4 22.5 22.9 22.6 2 16.0 17.8 21.1 24.7 23.2 21.2 22.3 22.7 3 15.0 15.7 17.5 20.7 24.2 22.8 20.8 21.9 4 15.0 14.8 15.5 17.3 20.5 23.9 22.5 20.5 5 15.0 14.7 14.5 15.2 16.9 20.0 23.4 22.0 6 16.0 14.8 14.4 14.2 14.9 16.6 19.7 23.0 7 20.0 15.7 14.5 14.1 14.0 14.6 16.3 19.3 8 20.0 19.7 15.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 14.4 16.0 9 25.0 20.0 19.7 15.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 14.4 10 26.0 24.2 19.3 19.0 14.9 13.8 13.5 13.3 11 24.0 25.2 23.4 18.7 18.4 14.4 13.3 13.0 12 23.0 23.8 24.9 23.2 18.6 18.3 14.3 13.2 K-6 116.0 123.7 131.1 136.7 143.3 149.6 153.8 154.7 7-8 40.0 35.4 29.9 28.3 27.9 28.3 30.7 35.3 9-12 98.0 93.2 87.3 76.3 66.1 60.4 54.8 53.9 K-12 254.0 252.3 248.3 241.3 237.3 238.3 239.3 243.9 Study Area 5E Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 10.0 11.7 11.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.6 10.5 1 10.0 10.2 11.9 11.2 10.2 10.7 10.9 10.8 2 8.0 9.9 10.0 11.7 11.1 10.1 10.6 10.8 3 8.0 7.9 9.7 9.9 11.5 10.9 9.9 10.4 4 10.0 7.9 7.8 9.6 9.7 11.4 10.7 9.8 5 7.0 9.8 7.7 7.6 9.4 9.5 11.1 10.5 6 15.0 6.9 9.6 7.6 7.5 9.2 9.4 11.0 7 4.0 14.7 6.8 9.4 7.4 7.3 9.0 9.2 8 12.0 3.9 14.5 6.6 9.3 7.3 7.2 8.9 9 12.0 12.0 3.9 14.5 6.6 9.3 7.3 7.2 10 16.0 11.6 11.6 3.8 14.0 6.4 9.0 7.1 11 8.0 15.5 11.2 11.2 3.7 13.5 6.2 8.7 12 14.0 7.9 15.3 11.1 11.1 3.7 13.4 6.2 K-6 68.0 64.3 67.7 67.6 69.9 72.5 73.2 73.8 7-8 16.0 18.6 21.3 16.0 16.7 14.6 16.2 18.1 9-12 50.0 47.0 42.0 40.6 35.4 32.9 35.9 29.2 K-12 134.0 129.9 131.0 124.2 122.0 120.0 125.3 121.1



Study Area 5F Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.1 1 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.2 3.8 4.3 2 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.4 5.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.7 3.6 4.5 5.3 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.4 4.2 5.1 5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.2 4.3 5.1 6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.5 4.3 5.3 7 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 5.2 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.3 3.3 4.4 10 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.0 3.0 4.0 11 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.7 3.8 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.2 2.0 2.8 4.8 K-6 2.0 3.1 3.2 7.6 15.5 22.5 29.0 34.2 7-8 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 5.1 7.1 9.8 9-12 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.6 5.7 9.2 12.8 17.0 K-12 3.0 4.1 5.2 12.2 24.2 36.8 48.9 61.0 Study Area 5G Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 1 2.0 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 2 4.0 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.2 3 3.0 3.9 1.9 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.1 4 4.0 3.0 3.9 1.9 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.9 5 5.0 3.9 2.9 3.8 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.1 6 3.0 4.9 3.8 2.8 3.7 1.8 2.8 3.3 7 9.0 2.9 4.8 3.8 2.8 3.7 1.8 2.8 8 3.0 8.9 2.9 4.7 3.7 2.7 3.6 1.8 9 4.0 3.0 8.9 2.9 4.7 3.7 2.7 3.6 10 1.0 3.9 2.9 8.6 2.8 4.6 3.6 2.7 11 3.0 1.0 3.7 2.8 8.3 2.7 4.4 3.5 12 5.0 3.0 1.0 3.7 2.8 8.2 2.7 4.4 K-6 24.0 24.3 22.4 21.4 21.6 20.8 22.0 21.9 7-8 12.0 11.8 7.7 8.5 6.5 6.4 5.4 4.6 9-12 13.0 10.9 16.5 18.0 18.6 19.2 13.4 14.2 K-12 49.0 47.0 46.6 47.9 46.7 46.4 40.8 40.7



Study Area 5H Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 7.0 8.2 7.7 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.3 1 17.0 7.1 8.3 7.8 7.1 7.5 7.6 7.5 2 14.0 16.8 7.0 8.2 7.7 7.1 7.4 7.6 3 15.0 13.8 16.5 6.9 8.1 7.6 6.9 7.3 4 19.0 14.8 13.6 16.3 6.8 8.0 7.5 6.8 5 18.0 18.6 14.5 13.3 15.9 6.7 7.8 7.3 6 12.0 17.7 18.3 14.2 13.1 15.7 6.6 7.7 7 18.0 11.8 17.4 17.9 14.0 12.8 15.4 6.4 8 14.0 17.7 11.6 17.1 17.6 13.7 12.6 15.1 9 28.0 14.0 17.7 11.6 17.1 17.6 13.7 12.6 10 21.0 27.1 13.5 17.1 11.2 16.5 17.1 13.3 11 14.0 20.3 26.2 13.1 16.6 10.8 16.0 16.5 12 15.0 13.9 20.1 26.0 13.0 16.4 10.7 15.9 K-6 102.0 97.0 85.9 73.7 66.1 60.1 51.2 51.5 7-8 32.0 29.5 29.0 35.0 31.6 26.5 28.0 21.5 9-12 78.0 75.3 77.5 67.8 57.9 61.3 57.5 58.3 K-12 212.0 201.8 192.4 176.5 155.6 147.9 136.7 131.3 Study Area 5J Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 10.0 11.7 11.0 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.6 10.5 1 9.0 9.3 10.9 10.2 9.3 9.8 10.0 9.8 2 16.0 9.3 9.6 11.2 10.5 9.6 10.1 10.3 3 19.0 15.6 9.0 9.3 10.9 10.3 9.4 9.9 4 18.0 17.2 14.2 8.2 8.5 9.9 9.3 8.5 5 20.0 17.3 16.6 13.6 7.9 8.2 9.5 9.0 6 26.0 20.0 17.3 16.6 13.6 7.9 8.2 9.5 7 13.0 25.6 19.7 17.1 16.3 13.4 7.8 8.0 8 11.0 13.3 26.2 20.2 17.5 16.7 13.7 8.0 9 21.0 11.0 13.3 26.2 20.2 17.5 16.7 13.7 10 23.0 20.6 10.8 13.1 25.7 19.8 17.2 16.4 11 13.0 22.9 20.5 10.8 13.0 25.6 19.7 17.1 12 19.0 13.8 24.4 21.9 11.4 13.8 27.3 21.0 K-6 118.0 100.4 88.6 79.1 71.2 66.4 67.1 67.5 7-8 24.0 38.9 45.9 37.3 33.8 30.1 21.5 16.0 9-12 76.0 68.3 69.0 72.0 70.3 76.7 80.9 68.2 K-12 218.0 207.6 203.5 188.4 175.3 173.2 169.5 151.7



Study Area 5K Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 20.0 23.4 22.0 20.1 21.1 21.5 21.2 21.0 1 25.0 18.6 21.7 20.5 18.7 19.6 20.0 19.7 2 28.0 25.7 19.1 22.4 21.1 19.2 20.2 20.6 3 22.0 27.3 25.1 18.7 21.8 20.5 18.7 19.7 4 16.0 20.0 24.8 22.8 16.9 19.8 18.6 17.0 5 15.0 15.4 19.2 23.9 21.9 16.3 19.1 17.9 6 13.0 15.0 15.4 19.2 23.9 21.9 16.3 19.1 7 24.0 12.8 14.8 15.2 18.9 23.5 21.6 16.1 8 13.0 24.6 13.1 15.1 15.5 19.4 24.1 22.1 9 18.0 13.0 24.6 13.1 15.1 15.5 19.4 24.1 10 23.0 17.7 12.8 24.1 12.9 14.8 15.2 19.0 11 18.0 22.9 17.6 12.7 24.0 12.8 14.8 15.2 12 28.0 19.2 24.4 18.7 13.5 25.6 13.6 15.7 K-6 139.0 145.4 147.3 147.6 145.4 138.8 134.1 135.0 7-8 37.0 37.4 27.9 30.3 34.4 42.9 45.7 38.2 9-12 87.0 72.8 79.4 68.6 65.5 68.7 63.0 74.0 K-12 263.0 255.6 254.6 246.5 245.3 250.4 242.8 247.2 Study Area 5L Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 1 12.0 4.2 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4 2 7.0 12.0 4.2 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.5 3 6.0 7.3 12.5 4.4 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.6 4 8.0 6.0 7.3 12.6 4.4 5.1 4.8 4.4 5 8.0 7.7 5.8 7.0 12.1 4.2 4.9 4.6 6 5.0 7.9 7.6 5.8 7.0 12.0 4.2 4.9 7 7.0 5.1 8.1 7.8 5.9 7.1 12.3 4.3 8 10.0 6.8 5.0 7.9 7.5 5.7 6.9 11.9 9 10.0 10.3 7.0 5.1 8.1 7.8 5.9 7.1 10 8.0 9.6 10.0 6.8 4.9 7.8 7.5 5.7 11 16.0 7.8 9.4 9.7 6.6 4.8 7.7 7.3 12 13.0 16.2 7.9 9.5 9.8 6.7 4.9 7.7 K-6 50.0 49.8 46.7 43.3 41.6 39.0 31.4 31.6 7-8 17.0 11.9 13.1 15.7 13.4 12.8 19.2 16.2 9-12 47.0 43.9 34.3 31.1 29.4 27.1 26.0 27.8 K-12 114.0 105.6 94.1 90.1 84.4 78.9 76.6 75.6



Study Area 5M Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 7.0 8.2 7.7 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.3 1 10.0 7.3 8.6 8.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 7.7 2 16.0 10.0 7.3 8.6 8.1 7.4 7.7 7.9 3 19.0 16.6 10.4 7.6 8.9 8.4 7.6 8.0 4 14.0 19.2 16.7 10.5 7.7 9.0 8.5 7.7 5 15.0 13.4 18.3 16.0 10.1 7.4 8.6 8.1 6 21.0 14.9 13.3 18.2 15.9 10.0 7.3 8.5 7 29.0 21.5 15.2 13.6 18.6 16.3 10.2 7.5 8 29.0 28.1 20.8 14.8 13.2 18.1 15.8 9.9 9 27.0 30.0 29.1 21.5 15.3 13.7 18.7 16.3 10 21.0 26.0 28.9 28.0 20.7 14.7 13.1 18.0 11 32.0 20.5 25.4 28.2 27.4 20.3 14.4 12.9 12 25.0 32.3 20.7 25.7 28.5 27.6 20.5 14.5 K-6 102.0 89.6 82.3 75.9 65.4 57.4 55.0 55.2 7-8 58.0 49.6 36.0 28.4 31.8 34.4 26.0 17.4 9-12 105.0 108.8 104.1 103.4 91.9 76.3 66.7 61.7 K-12 265.0 248.0 222.4 207.7 189.1 168.1 147.7 134.3 Study Area 5N Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1 4.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2 1.0 4.0 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 3 4.0 1.0 4.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 4 4.0 4.0 1.0 4.2 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 5 1.0 3.8 3.9 1.0 4.0 2.1 2.5 2.3 6 3.0 1.0 3.8 3.8 1.0 4.0 2.1 2.4 7 1.0 3.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 1.0 4.1 2.1 8 8.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 3.8 3.8 1.0 4.0 9 5.0 8.3 1.0 3.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 1.0 10 0.0 4.8 8.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 3.8 3.8 11 3.0 0.0 4.7 7.8 0.9 2.9 1.0 3.7 12 3.0 3.0 0.0 4.8 7.9 1.0 2.9 1.0 K-6 19.0 18.2 19.6 18.0 16.2 17.5 15.7 15.8 7-8 9.0 4.1 4.0 4.9 7.7 4.8 5.1 6.1 9-12 11.0 16.1 13.7 16.7 12.8 8.8 11.6 9.5 K-12 39.0 38.4 37.3 39.6 36.7 31.1 32.4 31.4



Study Area 5P Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 14.0 16.4 15.4 14.0 14.8 15.0 14.8 14.7 1 16.0 14.6 17.1 16.1 14.7 15.4 15.7 15.5 2 25.0 16.1 14.7 17.2 16.2 14.7 15.5 15.8 3 16.0 25.9 16.7 15.2 17.8 16.8 15.3 16.1 4 21.0 16.1 26.2 16.8 15.4 18.0 16.9 15.4 5 30.0 20.1 15.5 25.1 16.1 14.7 17.2 16.2 6 23.0 29.8 20.0 15.3 24.9 16.0 14.6 17.1 7 16.0 23.5 30.5 20.4 15.7 25.5 16.4 15.0 8 27.0 15.5 22.8 29.5 19.8 15.2 24.7 15.8 9 31.0 27.9 16.0 23.6 30.5 20.5 15.7 25.5 10 26.0 29.9 26.9 15.4 22.7 29.4 19.7 15.1 11 21.0 25.4 29.2 26.3 15.1 22.2 28.8 19.3 12 18.0 21.2 25.7 29.5 26.6 15.2 22.4 29.0 K-6 145.0 139.0 125.6 119.7 119.9 110.6 110.0 110.8 7-8 43.0 39.0 53.3 49.9 35.5 40.7 41.1 30.8 9-12 96.0 104.4 97.8 94.8 94.9 87.3 86.6 88.9 K-12 284.0 282.4 276.7 264.4 250.3 238.6 237.7 230.5 Study Area 5Q Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 1 4.0 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 2 3.0 4.0 3.1 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.4 3 7.0 3.1 4.2 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.4 4 4.0 7.1 3.1 4.2 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.3 5 10.0 3.8 6.8 3.0 4.0 3.2 3.7 3.5 6 3.0 9.9 3.8 6.7 3.0 4.0 3.1 3.7 7 5.0 3.1 10.2 3.9 6.9 3.1 4.1 3.2 8 6.0 4.8 3.0 9.8 3.8 6.7 3.0 4.0 9 12.0 6.2 5.0 3.1 10.2 3.9 6.9 3.1 10 5.0 11.6 6.0 4.8 3.0 9.8 3.8 6.6 11 11.0 4.9 11.3 5.8 4.7 2.9 9.6 3.7 12 7.0 11.1 4.9 11.4 5.9 4.8 2.9 9.7 K-6 34.0 34.5 28.0 27.3 23.9 24.3 23.6 23.7 7-8 11.0 7.9 13.2 13.7 10.7 9.8 7.1 7.2 9-12 35.0 33.8 27.2 25.1 23.8 21.4 23.2 23.1 K-12 80.0 76.2 68.4 66.1 58.4 55.5 53.9 54.0



Study Area 5R Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 6.0 7.0 6.6 6.0 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 1 5.0 6.3 7.3 6.9 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.6 2 15.0 5.0 6.3 7.4 6.9 6.3 6.6 6.8 3 8.0 15.6 5.2 6.5 7.6 7.2 6.6 6.9 4 12.0 8.1 15.7 5.3 6.6 7.7 7.2 6.6 5 11.0 11.5 7.7 15.0 5.0 6.3 7.4 6.9 6 12.0 10.9 11.4 7.7 14.9 5.0 6.3 7.3 7 13.0 12.3 11.2 11.7 7.8 15.3 5.1 6.4 8 13.0 12.6 11.9 10.8 11.3 7.6 14.8 5.0 9 16.0 13.4 13.0 12.3 11.2 11.7 7.9 15.3 10 20.0 15.4 12.9 12.5 11.8 10.8 11.3 7.6 11 12.0 19.6 15.1 12.7 12.3 11.6 10.5 11.0 12 20.0 12.1 19.8 15.2 12.8 12.4 11.7 10.6 K-6 69.0 64.4 60.2 54.8 53.6 45.5 47.1 47.4 7-8 26.0 24.9 23.1 22.5 19.1 22.9 19.9 11.4 9-12 68.0 60.5 60.8 52.7 48.1 46.5 41.4 44.5 K-12 163.0 149.8 144.1 130.0 120.8 114.9 108.4 103.3 Study Area 5T Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 11.0 12.9 12.1 11.0 11.6 11.8 11.6 11.5 1 10.0 11.5 13.4 12.6 11.5 12.1 12.3 12.2 2 16.0 10.0 11.5 13.5 12.7 11.6 12.2 12.4 3 6.0 16.6 10.4 12.0 14.0 13.2 12.0 12.6 4 16.0 6.0 16.7 10.5 12.1 14.1 13.3 12.1 5 7.0 15.3 5.8 16.0 10.1 11.6 13.5 12.7 6 8.0 7.0 15.2 5.8 15.9 10.0 11.5 13.4 7 5.0 8.2 7.1 15.6 5.9 16.3 10.2 11.8 8 11.0 4.8 7.9 6.9 15.1 5.7 15.8 9.9 9 6.0 11.4 5.0 8.2 7.1 15.6 5.9 16.3 10 11.0 5.8 11.0 4.8 7.9 6.9 15.0 5.7 11 7.0 10.8 5.7 10.7 4.7 7.7 6.7 14.7 12 13.0 7.1 10.9 5.7 10.8 4.8 7.8 6.8 K-6 74.0 79.3 85.1 81.4 87.9 84.4 86.4 86.9 7-8 16.0 13.0 15.0 22.5 21.0 22.0 26.0 21.7 9-12 37.0 35.1 32.6 29.4 30.5 35.0 35.4 43.5 K-12 127.0 127.4 132.7 133.3 139.4 141.4 147.8 152.1



Study Area 5U Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 1 4.0 4.1 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 2 12.0 4.0 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 3 8.0 11.8 3.9 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.2 4 11.0 7.9 11.6 3.8 3.9 4.6 4.3 3.9 5 4.0 10.7 7.7 11.4 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.2 6 12.0 3.9 10.6 7.6 11.2 3.7 3.8 4.4 7 10.0 11.8 3.9 10.4 7.4 11.0 3.6 3.7 8 10.0 9.8 11.6 3.8 10.2 7.3 10.8 3.6 9 16.0 10.0 9.8 11.6 3.8 10.2 7.3 10.8 10 8.0 15.5 9.7 9.5 11.2 3.7 9.9 7.1 11 13.0 7.7 15.0 9.4 9.2 10.8 3.6 9.6 12 11.0 12.9 7.7 14.8 9.3 9.1 10.7 3.5 K-6 55.0 47.1 47.0 40.0 36.1 29.0 29.4 29.5 7-8 20.0 21.6 15.5 14.2 17.6 18.3 14.4 7.3 9-12 48.0 46.1 42.2 45.3 33.5 33.8 31.5 31.0 K-12 123.0 114.8 104.7 99.5 87.2 81.1 75.3 67.8 Study Area 6A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 2 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 3 1.0 0.0 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 4 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 5 5.0 2.9 1.0 0.0 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 6 3.0 4.9 2.9 0.9 0.0 1.8 0.9 1.1 7 0.0 2.9 4.8 2.8 0.9 0.0 1.8 0.9 8 2.0 0.0 2.9 4.7 2.8 0.9 0.0 1.8 9 3.0 2.0 0.0 2.9 4.7 2.8 0.9 0.0 10 2.0 2.9 1.9 0.0 2.8 4.6 2.7 0.9 11 1.0 1.9 2.8 1.9 0.0 2.7 4.4 2.6 12 2.0 1.0 1.9 2.8 1.9 0.0 2.7 4.4 K-6 15.0 13.0 9.1 7.1 7.3 8.2 7.4 7.3 7-8 2.0 2.9 7.7 7.5 3.7 0.9 1.8 2.7 9-12 8.0 7.8 6.6 7.6 9.4 10.1 10.7 7.9 K-12 25.0 23.7 23.4 22.2 20.4 19.2 19.9 17.9



Study Area 6B Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Study Area 7A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0












Study Area 8F Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 1 6.0 3.7 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 2 7.0 6.2 3.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.1 3 6.0 6.8 6.0 3.7 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.9 4 4.0 5.4 6.2 5.5 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 5 8.0 3.9 5.2 6.0 5.3 3.3 3.8 3.6 6 7.0 8.0 3.9 5.2 6.0 5.3 3.3 3.8 7 13.0 6.9 7.9 3.8 5.2 5.9 5.2 3.2 8 10.0 13.3 7.1 8.1 3.9 5.3 6.0 5.3 9 19.0 10.0 13.3 7.1 8.1 3.9 5.3 6.0 10 13.0 18.7 9.8 13.1 6.9 7.9 3.8 5.2 11 3.0 12.9 18.6 9.8 13.0 6.9 7.9 3.8 12 10.0 3.2 13.8 19.8 10.4 13.8 7.3 8.4 K-6 42.0 38.7 33.8 33.0 31.2 28.7 26.7 26.9 7-8 23.0 20.2 15.0 11.9 9.1 11.2 11.2 8.5 9-12 45.0 44.8 55.5 49.8 38.4 32.5 24.3 23.4 K-12 110.0 103.7 104.3 94.7 78.7 72.4 62.2 58.8 Study Area 9 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 K-6 3.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 9-12 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.9 0.9 K-12 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.8



Study Area 10 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 29.0 28.4 27.8 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 31.1 36.6 30.3 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 33.7 42.7 42.0 3 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 32.9 43.1 45.8 4 1.0 1.8 0.9 0.0 8.7 30.1 39.3 42.9 5 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.9 9.2 31.3 39.0 41.9 6 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.7 10.5 33.0 41.7 43.2 7 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 9.9 34.8 46.2 48.1 8 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 9.4 35.5 49.7 54.5 9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 8.9 31.2 46.6 54.9 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.8 30.2 41.5 50.8 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 29.4 41.0 46.5 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 32.6 43.1 49.1 K-6 5.0 4.8 3.6 2.6 66.2 221.1 270.8 273.9 7-8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.9 19.3 70.3 95.9 102.6 9-12 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 34.0 123.4 172.2 201.3 K-12 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 119.5 414.8 538.9 577.8 Study Area 11 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0






Study Area 13A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 10 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.9 9-12 4.0 4.0 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 K-12 7.0 6.1 5.1 4.2 3.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 Study Area 14A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 13.7 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 15.9 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 16.4 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 17.5 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 18.4 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 18.6 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 18.2 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 15.3 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 13.9 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 13.2 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 11.3 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 11.2 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 11.8 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.8 118.7 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.4 29.2 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2 47.5 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 195.4












Study Area 14H Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2.0 1.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 4.0 2.0 1.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 4.0 4.3 2.2 1.1 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 6.0 4.0 4.3 2.2 1.1 4.6 0.0 0.0 7 7.0 5.5 3.6 3.9 2.0 1.0 4.2 0.0 8 3.0 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.8 1.9 1.0 4.1 9 1.0 3.0 6.8 5.3 3.5 3.8 1.9 1.0 10 4.0 1.0 2.9 6.6 5.2 3.4 3.7 1.9 11 3.0 3.9 0.9 2.8 6.4 5.1 3.4 3.6 12 9.0 2.9 3.8 0.9 2.8 6.3 5.0 3.3 K-6 21.0 15.5 11.8 7.6 5.7 4.6 0.0 0.0 7-8 10.0 12.3 9.0 7.5 5.8 2.9 5.2 4.1 9-12 17.0 10.8 14.4 15.6 17.9 18.6 14.0 9.8 K-12 48.0 38.6 35.2 30.7 29.4 26.1 19.2 13.9 Study Area 14I Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 10.0 9.2 9.6 8.8 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.1 1 9.0 10.6 9.8 10.2 9.3 9.8 9.8 9.8 2 16.0 9.5 11.2 10.4 10.8 9.9 10.4 10.4 3 10.0 16.1 9.6 11.3 10.5 10.9 10.0 10.4 4 10.0 10.1 16.3 9.7 11.5 10.6 11.0 10.1 5 17.0 10.7 10.9 17.5 10.4 12.3 11.4 11.8 6 16.0 16.8 10.6 10.8 17.4 10.3 12.2 11.2 7 17.0 14.7 15.5 9.8 9.9 15.9 9.5 11.2 8 21.0 16.6 14.4 15.1 9.5 9.7 15.6 9.3 9 24.0 20.9 16.5 14.3 15.0 9.5 9.6 15.5 10 15.0 23.4 20.3 16.0 13.9 14.6 9.2 9.3 11 16.0 14.6 22.8 19.8 15.7 13.5 14.2 9.0 12 17.0 15.7 14.3 22.3 19.4 15.3 13.3 14.0 K-6 88.0 83.0 78.0 78.7 79.1 73.0 74.0 72.8 7-8 38.0 31.3 29.9 24.9 19.4 25.6 25.1 20.5 9-12 72.0 74.6 73.9 72.4 64.0 52.9 46.3 47.8 K-12 198.0 188.9 181.8 176.0 162.5 151.5 145.4 141.1



Study Area 14J Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 6.0 5.5 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 1 10.0 6.4 5.9 6.1 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.9 2 7.0 10.6 6.7 6.2 6.5 5.9 6.2 6.2 3 4.0 7.1 10.7 6.8 6.3 6.5 6.0 6.3 4 7.0 4.0 7.1 10.8 6.9 6.3 6.6 6.0 5 9.0 7.5 4.3 7.7 11.6 7.4 6.8 7.1 6 13.0 8.9 7.4 4.3 7.6 11.5 7.3 6.7 7 8.0 11.9 8.2 6.8 4.0 7.0 10.5 6.7 8 4.0 7.8 11.7 8.0 6.7 3.9 6.8 10.3 9 8.0 4.0 7.8 11.6 7.9 6.6 3.8 6.8 10 7.0 7.8 3.9 7.6 11.3 7.7 6.5 3.7 11 10.0 6.8 7.6 3.8 7.4 11.0 7.5 6.3 12 12.0 9.8 6.7 7.4 3.7 7.2 10.8 7.4 K-6 56.0 50.0 47.9 47.2 50.0 49.0 44.3 43.7 7-8 12.0 19.7 19.9 14.8 10.7 10.9 17.3 17.0 9-12 37.0 28.4 26.0 30.4 30.3 32.5 28.6 24.2 K-12 105.0 98.1 93.8 92.4 91.0 92.4 90.2 84.9 Study Area 14K Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 1 1.0 4.2 3.9 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 2 7.0 1.1 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.1 3 5.0 7.1 1.1 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.2 4 8.0 5.1 7.1 1.1 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.0 5 3.0 8.6 5.4 7.7 1.2 4.9 4.5 4.7 6 9.0 3.0 8.5 5.4 7.6 1.1 4.9 4.5 7 6.0 8.3 2.7 7.8 4.9 7.0 1.1 4.5 8 11.0 5.9 8.1 2.7 7.6 4.8 6.8 1.0 9 12.0 10.9 5.8 8.0 2.6 7.6 4.8 6.8 10 5.0 11.7 10.6 5.7 7.8 2.6 7.4 4.7 11 11.0 4.9 11.4 10.4 5.5 7.6 2.5 7.2 12 11.0 10.8 4.8 11.2 10.2 5.4 7.5 2.5 K-6 37.0 32.8 34.4 30.4 29.3 26.2 29.5 29.0 7-8 17.0 14.2 10.8 10.5 12.5 11.8 7.9 5.5 9-12 39.0 38.3 32.6 35.3 26.1 23.2 22.2 21.2 K-12 93.0 85.3 77.8 76.2 67.9 61.2 59.6 55.7



Study Area 14L Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 9.0 8.3 8.7 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 1 10.0 9.1 8.4 8.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 2 13.0 9.6 8.7 8.1 8.4 7.7 8.1 8.1 3 10.0 12.9 9.5 8.7 8.0 8.3 7.6 8.0 4 14.0 10.1 13.0 9.6 8.7 8.1 8.4 7.7 5 14.0 14.0 10.1 13.0 9.6 8.7 8.1 8.4 6 16.0 13.6 13.5 9.7 12.6 9.3 8.4 7.8 7 13.0 15.7 13.3 13.3 9.6 12.3 9.1 8.3 8 16.0 13.3 16.0 13.6 13.6 9.8 12.6 9.3 9 16.0 16.0 13.3 16.0 13.6 13.6 9.8 12.6 10 13.0 15.2 15.2 12.6 15.3 12.9 12.9 9.3 11 15.0 12.5 14.6 14.6 12.1 14.7 12.4 12.4 12 3.0 16.1 13.4 15.7 15.7 13.0 15.7 13.4 K-6 86.0 77.6 71.9 65.8 63.6 58.8 57.3 56.6 7-8 29.0 29.0 29.3 26.9 23.2 22.1 21.7 17.6 9-12 47.0 59.8 56.5 58.9 56.7 54.2 50.8 47.7 K-12 162.0 166.4 157.7 151.6 143.5 135.1 129.8 121.9 Study Area 14M Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 2 2.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 3 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 4 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 5 3.0 2.1 1.1 2.2 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 6 2.0 3.0 2.1 1.1 2.2 0.0 1.2 1.1 7 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.1 8 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.7 1.9 1.0 1.9 0.0 9 6.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.0 1.9 10 1.0 5.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.6 1.8 0.9 11 3.0 1.0 5.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.5 1.8 12 1.0 2.9 1.0 5.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.5 K-6 11.0 10.1 8.3 7.3 7.2 6.3 7.3 7.2 7-8 4.0 3.8 4.5 4.7 2.9 3.0 1.9 1.1 9-12 11.0 11.7 10.5 11.2 7.9 8.0 7.0 7.1 K-12 26.0 25.6 23.3 23.2 18.0 17.3 16.2 15.4



Study Area 14N Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 9.0 8.3 8.7 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 1 7.0 9.6 8.8 9.2 8.4 8.8 8.8 8.8 2 19.0 7.4 10.1 9.3 9.7 8.9 9.3 9.3 3 13.0 19.2 7.5 10.2 9.4 9.8 9.0 9.4 4 19.0 13.2 19.4 7.5 10.3 9.5 9.9 9.1 5 10.0 20.4 14.1 20.8 8.1 11.1 10.2 10.7 6 14.0 9.9 20.2 14.0 20.6 8.0 11.0 10.1 7 21.0 12.9 9.1 18.6 12.9 18.9 7.4 10.1 8 17.0 20.5 12.6 8.9 18.1 12.6 18.5 7.2 9 14.0 16.9 20.4 12.5 8.8 18.0 12.5 18.4 10 20.0 13.6 16.4 19.8 12.1 8.6 17.5 12.1 11 17.0 19.5 13.3 16.0 19.3 11.9 8.4 17.1 12 13.0 16.6 19.1 13.0 15.7 18.9 11.6 8.2 K-6 91.0 88.0 88.8 78.9 74.8 64.4 66.5 65.6 7-8 38.0 33.4 21.7 27.5 31.0 31.5 25.9 17.3 9-12 64.0 66.6 69.2 61.3 55.9 57.4 50.0 55.8 K-12 193.0 188.0 179.7 167.7 161.7 153.3 142.4 138.7 Study Area 14P Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 1 5.0 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 2 9.0 4.8 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.6 3 9.0 8.9 4.8 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.6 4 13.0 9.1 9.0 4.8 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.4 5 8.0 13.0 9.1 9.0 4.8 3.9 3.6 3.7 6 8.0 7.8 12.6 8.8 8.7 4.6 3.8 3.5 7 12.0 7.9 7.6 12.3 8.6 8.5 4.6 3.7 8 12.0 12.2 8.0 7.8 12.6 8.8 8.7 4.7 9 12.0 12.0 12.2 8.0 7.8 12.6 8.8 8.7 10 6.0 11.4 11.4 11.6 7.6 7.4 12.0 8.4 11 8.0 5.8 11.0 11.0 11.2 7.3 7.1 11.5 12 10.0 8.6 6.2 11.8 11.8 12.0 7.9 7.6 K-6 56.0 51.3 47.0 37.5 32.0 26.6 25.5 25.1 7-8 24.0 20.1 15.6 20.1 21.2 17.3 13.3 8.4 9-12 36.0 37.8 40.8 42.4 38.4 39.3 35.8 36.2 K-12 116.0 109.2 103.4 100.0 91.6 83.2 74.6 69.7



Study Area 14Q Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 1 8.0 7.4 6.9 7.2 6.5 6.9 6.9 6.9 2 4.0 8.5 7.9 7.3 7.6 6.9 7.3 7.3 3 14.0 4.0 8.5 7.9 7.3 7.6 7.0 7.3 4 9.0 14.2 4.1 8.6 8.0 7.4 7.7 7.1 5 13.0 9.7 15.2 4.4 9.3 8.6 8.0 8.3 6 14.0 12.9 9.6 15.1 4.3 9.2 8.5 7.9 7 12.0 12.9 11.8 8.8 13.8 4.0 8.4 7.8 8 13.0 11.7 12.6 11.6 8.6 13.5 3.9 8.2 9 15.0 12.9 11.6 12.5 11.5 8.5 13.4 3.9 10 20.0 14.6 12.6 11.3 12.1 11.2 8.3 13.1 11 21.0 19.5 14.2 12.3 11.1 11.9 10.9 8.1 12 19.0 20.6 19.1 13.9 12.0 10.8 11.6 10.7 K-6 69.0 63.2 58.9 56.7 49.5 53.1 51.9 51.2 7-8 25.0 24.6 24.4 20.4 22.4 17.5 12.3 16.0 9-12 75.0 67.6 57.5 50.0 46.7 42.4 44.2 35.8 K-12 169.0 155.4 140.8 127.1 118.6 113.0 108.4 103.0 Study Area 14R Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 12.0 11.1 11.6 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.9 1 19.0 12.1 11.2 11.7 10.7 11.2 11.2 11.2 2 18.0 18.3 11.7 10.8 11.2 10.3 10.8 10.8 3 23.0 17.8 18.1 11.6 10.7 11.1 10.2 10.7 4 14.0 23.2 18.0 18.3 11.7 10.8 11.2 10.3 5 15.0 14.0 23.1 17.9 18.2 11.6 10.7 11.2 6 13.0 14.5 13.5 22.4 17.4 17.7 11.3 10.4 7 11.0 12.8 14.3 13.3 22.0 17.1 17.4 11.1 8 13.0 11.2 13.0 14.6 13.6 22.5 17.4 17.7 9 11.0 13.0 11.2 13.0 14.6 13.6 22.5 17.4 10 9.0 10.5 12.4 10.7 12.4 13.9 12.9 21.4 11 7.0 8.6 10.1 11.9 10.3 11.9 13.3 12.4 12 10.0 7.5 9.3 10.8 12.8 11.0 12.8 14.3 K-6 114.0 111.0 107.2 103.3 91.0 83.8 76.5 75.5 7-8 24.0 24.0 27.3 27.9 35.6 39.6 34.8 28.8 9-12 37.0 39.6 43.0 46.4 50.1 50.4 61.5 65.5 K-12 175.0 174.6 177.5 177.6 176.7 173.8 172.8 169.8



Study Area 14S Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 8.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 1 6.0 8.1 7.5 7.8 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.4 2 6.0 5.8 7.8 7.2 7.5 6.8 7.2 7.2 3 10.0 5.9 5.7 7.7 7.1 7.4 6.8 7.1 4 10.0 10.1 6.0 5.8 7.8 7.2 7.5 6.8 5 13.0 10.0 10.1 6.0 5.8 7.7 7.2 7.5 6 13.0 12.6 9.7 9.7 5.8 5.6 7.5 6.9 7 12.0 12.8 12.4 9.5 9.6 5.7 5.5 7.4 8 14.0 12.2 13.0 12.6 9.7 9.8 5.8 5.6 9 12.0 14.0 12.2 13.0 12.6 9.7 9.8 5.8 10 11.0 11.4 13.3 11.6 12.4 12.0 9.2 9.3 11 13.0 10.6 11.0 12.8 11.2 11.9 11.5 8.9 12 15.0 14.0 11.4 11.8 13.7 12.0 12.8 12.4 K-6 66.0 59.9 54.5 51.2 48.5 49.6 51.1 50.2 7-8 26.0 25.0 25.4 22.1 19.3 15.5 11.3 13.0 9-12 51.0 50.0 47.9 49.2 49.9 45.6 43.3 36.4 K-12 143.0 134.9 127.8 122.5 117.7 110.7 105.7 99.6 Study Area 14T Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 1 2.0 5.2 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 2 7.0 2.0 5.2 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.8 3 7.0 7.0 1.9 5.1 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.7 4 5.0 7.0 6.9 1.9 5.1 4.7 4.9 4.5 5 9.0 5.2 7.3 7.2 2.0 5.3 4.9 5.1 6 3.0 9.1 5.3 7.3 7.3 2.0 5.3 4.9 7 7.0 3.0 9.2 5.3 7.4 7.3 2.1 5.4 8 3.0 6.9 3.0 9.1 5.3 7.3 7.3 2.0 9 5.0 2.9 6.8 2.9 8.9 5.2 7.2 7.1 10 3.0 5.0 2.9 6.8 2.9 8.9 5.1 7.1 11 1.0 3.0 4.9 2.9 6.7 2.9 8.8 5.1 12 5.0 1.0 3.1 5.1 3.0 6.9 3.0 9.1 K-6 38.0 40.1 36.3 35.8 33.3 30.8 33.8 33.4 7-8 10.0 9.9 12.2 14.4 12.7 14.6 9.4 7.4 9-12 14.0 11.9 17.7 17.7 21.5 23.9 24.1 28.4 K-12 62.0 61.9 66.2 67.9 67.5 69.3 67.3 69.2



Study Area 14U Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 1 4.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2 8.0 3.9 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 3 5.0 7.9 3.9 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.8 4 4.0 5.0 7.9 3.9 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.7 5 6.0 4.2 5.2 8.2 4.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 6 6.0 6.0 4.2 5.2 8.3 4.1 3.2 3.0 7 4.0 6.1 6.1 4.3 5.3 8.4 4.1 3.2 8 4.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 4.2 5.2 8.3 4.1 9 2.0 3.9 3.9 5.9 5.9 4.1 5.1 8.2 10 2.0 2.0 3.9 3.9 5.9 5.9 4.1 5.1 11 7.0 2.0 2.0 3.9 3.8 5.8 5.8 4.1 12 11.0 7.3 2.1 2.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 6.1 K-6 36.0 32.9 30.1 28.9 26.7 21.5 20.3 20.1 7-8 8.0 10.1 12.1 10.3 9.5 13.6 12.4 7.3 9-12 22.0 15.2 11.9 15.7 19.6 19.8 21.0 23.5 K-12 66.0 58.2 54.1 54.9 55.8 54.9 53.7 50.9 Study Area 14V Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



Study Area 14W Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 20.0 18.5 19.3 17.6 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.2 1 13.0 21.2 19.6 20.5 18.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 2 15.0 13.7 22.5 20.7 21.6 19.8 20.7 20.7 3 21.0 15.1 13.9 22.6 20.9 21.8 19.9 20.9 4 23.0 21.3 15.3 14.0 22.9 21.2 22.1 20.2 5 17.0 24.7 22.8 16.4 15.1 24.6 22.7 23.7 6 19.0 16.8 24.5 22.6 16.3 14.9 24.4 22.5 7 12.0 17.5 15.5 22.5 20.8 15.0 13.7 22.4 8 10.0 11.7 17.1 15.1 22.0 20.3 14.6 13.4 9 9.0 9.9 11.6 16.9 15.0 21.8 20.1 14.5 10 17.0 8.8 9.7 11.3 16.5 14.6 21.2 19.6 11 12.0 16.6 8.5 9.4 11.1 16.1 14.2 20.7 12 15.0 11.7 16.2 8.4 9.2 10.8 15.7 14.0 K-6 128.0 131.3 137.9 134.4 134.0 140.4 147.8 145.8 7-8 22.0 29.2 32.6 37.6 42.8 35.3 28.3 35.8 9-12 53.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 51.8 63.3 71.2 68.8 K-12 203.0 207.5 216.5 218.0 228.6 239.0 247.3 250.4 Study Area 15 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1 0.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 2.0 0.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 3 1.0 1.9 0.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 4 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 5 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 6 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.0 2.0 1.9 7 5.0 1.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.0 1.9 8 2.0 5.0 1.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.0 9 4.0 2.1 5.3 2.0 0.9 0.0 1.0 1.9 10 1.0 4.1 2.1 5.4 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 11 9.0 1.0 4.0 2.1 5.3 2.0 1.0 0.0 12 2.0 9.3 1.0 4.2 2.2 5.5 2.0 1.0 K-6 8.0 7.7 8.9 10.8 11.5 11.7 13.6 13.4 7-8 7.0 6.9 2.8 0.9 0.9 2.7 1.8 1.9 9-12 16.0 16.5 12.4 13.7 10.4 8.5 4.0 3.9 K-12 31.0 31.1 24.1 25.4 22.8 22.9 19.4 19.2






Study Area 16B Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 4 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 5 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 6 1.0 1.9 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 7 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 8 0.0 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 9 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.0 1.0 0.9 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.0 1.0 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.9 0.0 12 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 2.0 K-6 7.0 6.9 6.0 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 7-8 1.0 1.9 2.7 1.8 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 9-12 3.0 1.0 2.1 2.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 K-12 11.0 9.8 10.8 10.9 11.9 12.6 12.4 12.4 Study Area 17 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 30.0 27.7 28.9 26.4 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 1 34.0 31.5 29.1 30.3 27.7 29.1 29.1 29.0 2 34.0 33.4 30.9 28.6 29.8 27.2 28.5 28.5 3 36.0 33.8 33.1 30.7 28.4 29.5 27.0 28.3 4 45.0 35.7 33.5 32.9 30.5 28.2 29.3 26.8 5 44.0 47.0 37.4 35.0 34.4 31.8 29.4 30.7 6 43.0 44.4 47.4 37.7 35.3 34.6 32.1 29.7 7 43.0 43.4 44.8 47.9 38.0 35.7 35.0 32.4 8 47.0 42.6 43.0 44.3 47.4 37.7 35.3 34.6 9 43.0 46.2 41.8 42.3 43.6 46.6 37.0 34.7 10 46.0 42.7 45.9 41.6 42.0 43.3 46.3 36.8 11 55.0 45.5 42.2 45.4 41.1 41.5 42.8 45.8 12 46.0 57.0 47.2 43.8 47.1 42.6 43.0 44.4 K-6 266.0 253.5 240.3 221.6 213.8 208.1 203.1 200.4 7-8 90.0 86.0 87.8 92.2 85.4 73.4 70.3 67.0 9-12 190.0 191.4 177.1 173.1 173.8 174.0 169.1 161.7 K-12 546.0 530.9 505.2 486.9 473.0 455.5 442.5 429.1



Study Area 17A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 4.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 3 3.0 4.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 4 0.0 3.0 3.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 5 5.0 0.0 3.1 4.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 6 2.0 5.0 0.0 3.1 4.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 7 3.0 2.0 5.1 0.0 3.2 4.2 2.1 2.2 8 2.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 3.1 4.2 2.0 9 4.0 2.0 2.9 2.0 5.0 0.0 3.1 4.1 10 3.0 4.0 2.0 2.9 2.0 4.9 0.0 3.1 11 3.0 3.0 3.9 1.9 2.9 1.9 4.9 0.0 12 4.0 3.1 3.1 4.1 2.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 K-6 18.0 17.9 14.8 16.8 15.7 13.5 13.5 13.3 7-8 5.0 5.0 7.1 5.0 3.2 7.3 6.3 4.2 9-12 14.0 12.1 11.9 10.9 11.9 9.8 10.0 12.2 K-12 37.0 35.0 33.8 32.7 30.8 30.6 29.8 29.7 Study Area 18 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1 9.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 6.0 9.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 3 2.0 5.8 9.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 4 3.0 2.1 6.1 9.6 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 5 4.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 9.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 6 5.0 3.9 2.9 2.0 5.8 9.1 2.0 1.9 7 13.0 4.7 3.6 2.7 1.8 5.4 8.5 1.9 8 16.0 13.1 4.7 3.6 2.7 1.9 5.4 8.5 9 10.0 16.8 13.7 4.9 3.8 2.8 1.9 5.7 10 5.0 10.2 17.1 14.0 5.0 3.9 2.9 2.0 11 9.0 5.0 10.1 17.0 13.9 5.0 3.8 2.8 12 12.0 9.3 5.1 10.4 17.5 14.3 5.1 3.9 K-6 31.0 28.1 26.1 25.4 24.9 20.8 13.6 13.4 7-8 29.0 17.8 8.3 6.3 4.5 7.3 13.9 10.4 9-12 36.0 41.3 46.0 46.3 40.2 26.0 13.7 14.4 K-12 96.0 87.2 80.4 78.0 69.6 54.1 41.2 38.2



Study Area 19A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 8.3 13.0 9.6 9.6 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 9.3 14.1 11.6 8.6 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 9.6 16.3 13.7 11.3 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 10.2 17.0 16.2 13.6 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 10.7 18.3 17.6 16.7 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 10.8 18.6 18.7 18.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 10.6 18.4 18.7 18.8 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 8.8 15.6 16.8 17.2 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 8.2 14.4 14.7 15.8 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.6 13.1 14.4 14.7 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 6.6 12.0 12.6 13.8 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 6.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 6.9 11.7 11.4 11.8 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.9 69.5 115.7 106.1 96.6 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 17.0 30.0 31.5 33.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 27.6 47.9 50.0 52.5 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.7 114.1 193.6 187.6 182.1 Study Area 19B Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 9-12 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9



Study Area 19C Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 9.0 8.3 8.7 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 1 16.0 9.1 8.4 8.7 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 2 26.0 15.7 8.9 8.2 8.6 7.9 8.2 8.2 3 15.0 26.1 15.8 8.9 8.3 8.6 7.9 8.3 4 29.0 14.8 25.7 15.5 8.8 8.1 8.5 7.8 5 18.0 28.7 14.7 25.5 15.4 8.7 8.1 8.4 6 28.0 18.2 29.0 14.8 25.7 15.6 8.8 8.2 7 20.0 27.8 18.1 28.9 14.7 25.6 15.5 8.8 8 14.0 19.8 27.5 17.9 28.5 14.6 25.3 15.3 9 11.0 14.7 20.8 29.0 18.8 30.0 15.3 26.6 10 14.0 11.7 15.6 22.1 30.7 19.9 31.9 16.2 11 12.0 13.6 11.3 15.2 21.4 29.8 19.4 30.9 12 15.0 12.3 13.9 11.6 15.5 21.9 30.5 19.8 K-6 141.0 120.9 111.2 89.5 83.1 65.6 58.2 57.5 7-8 34.0 47.6 45.6 46.8 43.2 40.2 40.8 24.1 9-12 52.0 52.3 61.6 77.9 86.4 101.6 97.1 93.5 K-12 227.0 220.8 218.4 214.2 212.7 207.4 196.1 175.1 Study Area 19D Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 19.0 17.6 18.3 16.7 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.3 1 8.0 17.8 16.4 17.1 15.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 2 18.0 8.1 17.9 16.6 17.3 15.8 16.5 16.5 3 14.0 17.7 7.9 17.6 16.3 16.9 15.5 16.2 4 17.0 14.0 17.6 7.9 17.5 16.2 16.9 15.4 5 17.0 15.7 12.9 16.2 7.3 16.2 14.9 15.6 6 13.0 16.8 15.5 12.8 16.1 7.2 16.0 14.8 7 16.0 12.7 16.5 15.2 12.5 15.7 7.0 15.7 8 18.0 16.9 13.4 17.4 16.0 13.2 16.6 7.4 9 20.0 17.9 16.7 13.3 17.2 15.9 13.1 16.5 10 9.0 19.0 17.0 15.9 12.7 16.4 15.1 12.4 11 15.0 8.6 18.1 16.2 15.1 12.0 15.6 14.4 12 19.0 15.1 8.6 18.3 16.3 15.3 12.2 15.8 K-6 106.0 107.7 106.5 104.9 107.7 106.2 113.7 112.2 7-8 34.0 29.6 29.9 32.6 28.5 28.9 23.6 23.1 9-12 63.0 60.6 60.4 63.7 61.3 59.6 56.0 59.1 K-12 203.0 197.9 196.8 201.2 197.5 194.7 193.3 194.4



Study Area 19E Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 29.0 26.8 27.9 25.5 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 1 39.0 29.3 27.0 28.2 25.7 27.0 27.0 27.0 2 34.0 38.3 28.8 26.6 27.7 25.3 26.5 26.5 3 43.0 34.1 38.4 28.8 26.6 27.8 25.4 26.6 4 39.0 42.4 33.6 37.9 28.4 26.3 27.4 25.0 5 39.0 38.6 42.0 33.3 37.5 28.2 26.0 27.1 6 36.0 39.4 39.0 42.4 33.6 37.9 28.4 26.3 7 34.0 35.8 39.2 38.8 42.2 33.4 37.7 28.3 8 33.0 33.6 35.4 38.7 38.4 41.7 33.1 37.3 9 31.0 34.7 35.4 37.3 40.8 40.4 43.9 34.8 10 28.0 32.9 36.8 37.5 39.5 43.2 42.8 46.6 11 30.0 27.2 31.9 35.8 36.4 38.4 42.0 41.6 12 40.0 30.7 27.8 32.6 36.6 37.2 39.2 42.9 K-6 259.0 248.9 236.7 222.7 206.3 199.3 187.4 184.9 7-8 67.0 69.4 74.6 77.5 80.6 75.1 70.8 65.6 9-12 129.0 125.5 131.9 143.2 153.3 159.2 167.9 165.9 K-12 455.0 443.8 443.2 443.4 440.2 433.6 426.1 416.4 Study Area 19F Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 28.0 38.9 44.8 40.5 41.5 42.1 41.6 41.3 1 24.0 40.9 49.5 47.6 41.5 42.5 41.9 41.4 2 30.0 36.8 51.2 52.1 48.4 42.3 42.1 41.6 3 23.0 42.5 46.9 53.5 52.5 48.8 41.7 41.5 4 24.0 36.2 53.4 50.0 54.8 53.9 49.0 41.9 5 30.0 37.4 47.4 57.0 51.8 56.6 54.4 49.5 6 26.0 42.8 47.9 50.1 57.8 52.6 56.2 54.1 7 41.0 36.6 51.1 49.6 50.2 57.7 51.6 55.2 8 28.0 52.7 46.3 54.2 51.0 51.6 58.2 52.0 9 26.0 36.9 60.3 48.6 55.4 52.2 52.0 58.6 10 18.0 34.3 43.6 61.7 48.9 55.6 51.6 51.5 11 18.0 25.9 40.2 44.2 60.6 48.3 54.0 50.1 12 12.0 27.5 34.1 43.6 46.6 63.5 49.9 55.8 K-6 185.0 275.5 341.1 350.8 348.3 338.8 326.9 311.3 7-8 69.0 89.3 97.4 103.8 101.2 109.3 109.8 107.2 9-12 74.0 124.6 178.2 198.1 211.5 219.6 207.5 216.0 K-12 328.0 489.4 616.7 652.7 661.0 667.7 644.2 634.5



Study Area 19G Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 13.0 12.0 12.5 11.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 1 19.0 11.6 10.7 11.2 10.2 10.7 10.7 10.7 2 15.0 18.5 11.3 10.4 10.9 9.9 10.4 10.4 3 10.0 14.9 18.4 11.2 10.4 10.8 9.9 10.4 4 21.0 10.4 15.4 19.0 11.6 10.7 11.2 10.2 5 17.0 21.5 10.6 15.8 19.5 11.9 11.0 11.5 6 16.0 17.1 21.7 10.7 15.9 19.6 12.0 11.1 7 5.0 14.7 15.7 19.8 9.8 14.6 18.0 11.0 8 10.0 4.7 13.8 14.7 18.7 9.2 13.7 16.9 9 21.0 10.1 4.7 13.9 14.8 18.8 9.3 13.8 10 17.0 20.1 9.6 4.5 13.3 14.2 17.9 8.8 11 13.0 16.5 19.5 9.3 4.4 12.8 13.7 17.4 12 12.0 13.3 16.8 19.8 9.5 4.5 13.1 14.0 K-6 111.0 106.0 100.6 89.7 90.5 85.6 77.2 76.2 7-8 15.0 19.4 29.5 34.5 28.5 23.8 31.7 27.9 9-12 63.0 60.0 50.6 47.5 42.0 50.3 54.0 54.0 K-12 189.0 185.4 180.7 171.7 161.0 159.7 162.9 158.1 Study Area 19H Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 37.0 34.2 35.6 32.6 34.2 34.2 34.1 33.7 1 46.0 37.3 34.5 36.0 32.9 34.5 34.5 34.4 2 46.0 45.2 36.7 33.9 35.3 32.3 33.9 33.9 3 57.0 46.1 45.3 36.8 34.0 35.4 32.4 33.9 4 46.0 56.2 45.4 44.7 36.3 33.5 34.9 31.9 5 52.0 45.6 55.7 45.0 44.3 35.9 33.2 34.6 6 53.0 52.5 46.0 56.3 45.5 44.7 36.3 33.5 7 44.0 52.7 52.2 45.8 55.9 45.2 44.4 36.1 8 47.0 43.5 52.1 51.6 45.3 55.3 44.7 44.0 9 55.0 49.5 45.8 54.9 54.4 47.7 58.2 47.1 10 37.0 58.3 52.5 48.6 58.2 57.6 50.5 61.7 11 48.0 35.9 56.6 50.9 47.2 56.5 56.0 49.1 12 43.0 49.1 36.7 57.9 52.1 48.2 57.7 57.2 K-6 337.0 317.1 299.2 285.3 262.5 250.5 239.3 235.9 7-8 91.0 96.2 104.3 97.4 101.2 100.5 89.1 80.1 9-12 183.0 192.8 191.6 212.3 211.9 210.0 222.4 215.1 K-12 611.0 606.1 595.1 595.0 575.6 561.0 550.8 531.1









Study Area 19N Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 7 1.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 8 0.0 1.1 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 11 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.8 0.0 12 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.9 K-6 3.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 7-8 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 9-12 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.9 2.9 1.8 1.9 K-12 7.0 6.1 4.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 2.7 2.8 Study Area 19P Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 42.0 44.5 50.7 50.5 53.5 53.9 54.2 53.1 1 48.0 47.4 51.4 57.0 54.5 55.6 55.1 53.9 2 37.0 53.2 54.2 57.6 60.8 56.4 56.6 54.6 3 38.0 42.1 59.6 60.0 61.0 62.3 57.0 55.8 4 34.0 43.8 49.4 66.4 64.4 63.5 63.9 57.2 5 27.0 40.1 51.5 56.6 71.4 67.4 65.6 64.5 6 21.0 32.5 47.0 57.8 60.5 73.3 68.5 65.2 7 24.0 25.2 37.5 51.2 60.0 61.0 72.9 67.2 8 28.0 29.0 31.3 43.1 55.0 62.2 62.6 73.5 9 40.0 32.2 34.5 36.5 46.6 57.4 63.8 63.0 10 15.0 43.5 37.2 39.1 39.3 48.1 58.0 63.2 11 20.0 18.4 47.5 40.9 41.1 40.1 47.8 56.3 12 17.0 24.8 24.6 54.2 45.6 44.5 42.7 49.5 K-6 247.0 303.6 363.8 405.9 426.1 432.4 420.9 404.3 7-8 52.0 54.2 68.8 94.3 115.0 123.2 135.5 140.7 9-12 92.0 118.9 143.8 170.7 172.6 190.1 212.3 232.0 K-12 391.0 476.7 576.4 670.9 713.7 745.7 768.7 777.0















Study Area 20I Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 1 6.0 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 2 5.0 5.8 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.3 3 11.0 4.8 5.5 4.4 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.1 4 12.0 11.3 4.9 5.7 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.0 5 14.0 12.0 11.2 4.9 5.6 4.5 4.2 4.3 6 11.0 13.9 11.9 11.2 4.8 5.6 4.5 4.1 7 16.0 10.7 13.5 11.5 10.8 4.7 5.4 4.4 8 12.0 15.5 10.3 13.1 11.2 10.5 4.6 5.3 9 15.0 11.4 14.7 9.8 12.4 10.6 10.0 4.3 10 14.0 15.0 11.4 14.8 9.9 12.5 10.7 10.0 11 10.0 13.6 14.7 11.1 14.4 9.6 12.1 10.4 12 14.0 10.2 13.9 14.9 11.3 14.6 9.7 12.3 K-6 64.0 57.2 47.3 39.5 32.3 31.7 30.3 29.8 7-8 28.0 26.2 23.8 24.6 22.0 15.2 10.0 9.7 9-12 53.0 50.2 54.7 50.6 48.0 47.3 42.5 37.0 K-12 145.0 133.6 125.8 114.7 102.3 94.2 82.8 76.5 Study Area 20J Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 1 4.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2 2.0 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 3 5.0 1.9 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.4 4 3.0 5.1 2.0 3.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 5 9.0 3.0 5.1 1.9 3.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 6 4.0 8.9 3.0 5.1 1.9 3.7 2.7 2.5 7 7.0 3.9 8.7 2.9 4.9 1.9 3.6 2.6 8 7.0 6.8 3.8 8.4 2.8 4.8 1.8 3.5 9 7.0 6.7 6.4 3.6 8.0 2.7 4.5 1.7 10 8.0 7.0 6.7 6.5 3.6 8.0 2.7 4.5 11 10.0 7.8 6.8 6.5 6.3 3.5 7.8 2.6 12 9.0 10.2 7.9 6.9 6.6 6.4 3.5 7.9 K-6 30.0 28.5 22.2 21.5 18.8 19.4 18.2 17.9 7-8 14.0 10.7 12.5 11.3 7.7 6.7 5.4 6.1 9-12 34.0 31.7 27.8 23.5 24.5 20.6 18.5 16.7 K-12 78.0 70.9 62.5 56.3 51.0 46.7 42.1 40.7



Study Area 20K Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 1 3.0 6.7 6.2 6.5 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 2 4.0 2.9 6.5 6.0 6.2 5.7 6.0 6.0 3 4.0 3.8 2.8 6.2 5.7 6.0 5.4 5.7 4 10.0 4.1 3.9 2.8 6.3 5.9 6.1 5.6 5 6.0 10.0 4.1 3.9 2.8 6.3 5.8 6.1 6 8.0 6.0 9.9 4.1 3.9 2.8 6.3 5.8 7 6.0 7.8 5.8 9.6 3.9 3.8 2.7 6.1 8 9.0 5.8 7.5 5.6 9.3 3.8 3.6 2.6 9 4.0 8.6 5.5 7.1 5.3 8.8 3.6 3.5 10 6.0 4.0 8.6 5.5 7.2 5.3 8.9 3.6 11 8.0 5.8 3.9 8.4 5.4 7.0 5.2 8.6 12 7.0 8.1 5.9 4.0 8.5 5.5 7.1 5.3 K-6 42.0 40.0 40.1 35.7 37.3 39.4 42.3 41.8 7-8 15.0 13.6 13.3 15.2 13.2 7.6 6.3 8.7 9-12 25.0 26.5 23.9 25.0 26.4 26.6 24.8 21.0 K-12 82.0 80.1 77.3 75.9 76.9 73.6 73.4 71.5 Study Area 20L Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1 10.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 2 9.0 9.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 3 7.0 8.6 9.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 4 8.0 7.2 8.8 9.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 5 7.0 8.0 7.2 8.8 9.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 6 12.0 7.0 7.9 7.1 8.7 9.4 1.8 1.7 7 6.0 11.6 6.7 7.7 6.9 8.5 9.1 1.7 8 17.0 5.8 11.3 6.5 7.5 6.7 8.2 8.8 9 18.0 16.1 5.5 10.7 6.2 7.1 6.3 7.8 10 10.0 18.1 16.2 5.5 10.7 6.2 7.1 6.4 11 17.0 9.7 17.6 15.8 5.4 10.5 6.1 6.9 12 15.0 17.3 9.9 17.9 16.0 5.5 10.6 6.2 K-6 55.0 44.1 38.7 32.4 26.8 19.8 12.1 11.9 7-8 23.0 17.4 18.0 14.2 14.4 15.2 17.3 10.5 9-12 60.0 61.2 49.2 49.9 38.3 29.3 30.1 27.3 K-12 138.0 122.7 105.9 96.5 79.5 64.3 59.5 49.7









Study Area 23C Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 1 5.0 5.1 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 2 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 3 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.4 4 7.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.3 5 6.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.7 6 14.0 5.8 6.8 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 7 10.0 13.8 5.7 6.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 8 9.0 10.2 14.0 5.8 6.8 4.9 4.8 4.7 9 6.0 9.0 10.2 14.0 5.8 6.8 4.9 4.8 10 11.0 5.7 8.6 9.7 13.3 5.5 6.4 4.6 11 9.0 10.6 5.5 8.2 9.3 12.8 5.3 6.2 12 5.0 9.7 11.4 5.9 8.8 10.0 13.8 5.7 K-6 47.0 37.3 36.0 33.3 32.6 32.1 31.9 31.5 7-8 19.0 24.0 19.7 12.4 11.6 9.6 9.4 9.3 9-12 31.0 35.0 35.7 37.8 37.2 35.1 30.4 21.3 K-12 97.0 96.3 91.4 83.5 81.4 76.8 71.7 62.1 Study Area 24 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 11.0 10.2 10.6 9.7 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 1 12.0 11.5 10.7 11.1 10.2 10.7 10.7 10.6 2 20.0 11.8 11.3 10.5 10.9 10.0 10.5 10.5 3 15.0 19.9 11.7 11.3 10.4 10.8 9.9 10.4 4 12.0 14.9 19.7 11.6 11.2 10.3 10.8 9.8 5 11.0 12.5 15.6 20.6 12.1 11.7 10.8 11.2 6 8.0 11.1 12.6 15.7 20.8 12.2 11.8 10.9 7 16.0 8.1 11.2 12.8 15.8 21.0 12.3 11.9 8 14.0 15.8 8.0 11.1 12.6 15.7 20.8 12.2 9 11.0 13.8 15.6 7.9 10.9 12.4 15.4 20.4 10 18.0 10.9 13.7 15.5 7.8 10.8 12.3 15.3 11 20.0 17.8 10.8 13.5 15.3 7.7 10.7 12.2 12 24.0 20.7 18.5 11.2 14.0 15.9 8.0 11.1 K-6 89.0 91.9 92.2 90.5 85.8 75.9 74.6 73.4 7-8 30.0 23.9 19.2 23.9 28.4 36.7 33.1 24.1 9-12 73.0 63.2 58.6 48.1 48.0 46.8 46.4 59.0 K-12 192.0 179.0 170.0 162.5 162.2 159.4 154.1 156.5
























Study Area 29H Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 30.0 27.7 28.9 26.4 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 1 21.0 30.2 27.9 29.1 26.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 2 21.0 22.1 31.9 29.5 30.7 28.0 29.4 29.4 3 33.0 20.5 21.6 31.0 28.7 29.9 27.3 28.7 4 16.0 34.2 21.2 22.3 32.2 29.7 31.0 28.3 5 24.0 15.8 33.8 21.0 22.1 31.8 29.4 30.6 6 21.0 23.1 15.3 32.6 20.2 21.3 30.7 28.3 7 10.0 19.6 21.6 14.2 30.4 18.8 19.8 28.6 8 16.0 10.1 19.7 21.7 14.3 30.5 18.9 19.9 9 10.0 16.8 10.6 20.7 22.8 15.0 32.1 19.9 10 14.0 10.2 17.1 10.8 21.1 23.2 15.3 32.7 11 8.0 13.9 10.1 17.0 10.7 20.9 23.0 15.2 12 9.0 8.2 14.3 10.4 17.5 11.0 21.5 23.7 K-6 166.0 173.6 180.6 191.9 188.2 196.3 203.4 200.6 7-8 26.0 29.7 41.3 35.9 44.7 49.3 38.7 48.5 9-12 41.0 49.1 52.1 58.9 72.1 70.1 91.9 91.5 K-12 233.0 252.4 274.0 286.7 305.0 315.7 334.0 340.6 Study Area 29J Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 32.0 29.6 30.8 28.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 1 29.0 32.3 29.8 31.1 28.4 29.8 29.8 29.7 2 26.0 30.6 34.0 31.4 32.7 29.9 31.4 31.4 3 31.0 25.3 29.8 33.1 30.6 31.9 29.1 30.6 4 38.0 32.1 26.2 30.8 34.3 31.7 33.0 30.2 5 29.0 37.6 31.8 25.9 30.5 33.9 31.4 32.7 6 23.0 28.0 36.2 30.6 25.0 29.4 32.7 30.2 7 26.0 21.4 26.1 33.8 28.5 23.3 27.4 30.5 8 27.0 26.1 21.5 26.2 33.9 28.7 23.4 27.5 9 24.0 28.3 27.4 22.6 27.5 35.6 30.1 24.6 10 32.0 24.5 28.9 28.0 23.1 28.0 36.3 30.7 11 14.0 31.7 24.3 28.7 27.7 22.9 27.8 36.0 12 14.0 14.4 32.7 25.0 29.5 28.6 23.6 28.6 K-6 208.0 215.5 218.6 211.1 211.0 216.1 216.9 214.0 7-8 53.0 47.5 47.6 60.0 62.4 52.0 50.8 58.0 9-12 84.0 98.9 113.3 104.3 107.8 115.1 117.8 119.9 K-12 345.0 361.9 379.5 375.4 381.2 383.2 385.5 391.9



Study Area 29K Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 1 0.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2 4.0 0.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3 0.0 3.9 0.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.9 4 4.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.8 5 1.0 4.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 6 4.0 1.0 3.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 3.1 2.8 7 5.0 3.7 0.9 3.6 0.0 3.6 0.0 2.9 8 1.0 5.0 3.7 0.9 3.6 0.0 3.6 0.0 9 3.0 1.0 5.3 3.9 0.9 3.8 0.0 3.8 10 4.0 3.1 1.1 5.4 4.0 1.0 3.8 0.0 11 4.0 4.0 3.0 1.1 5.3 4.0 1.0 3.8 12 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 1.1 5.5 4.1 1.0 K-6 16.0 14.7 16.7 15.5 18.5 17.6 20.3 20.0 7-8 6.0 8.7 4.6 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.9 9-12 15.0 12.2 13.5 13.5 11.3 14.3 8.9 8.6 K-12 37.0 35.6 34.8 33.5 33.4 35.5 32.8 31.5 Study Area 30A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 9.0 8.3 8.7 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 1 10.0 8.6 8.0 8.3 7.6 8.0 8.0 8.0 2 14.0 9.6 8.3 7.7 8.0 7.3 7.7 7.7 3 11.0 13.4 9.2 8.0 7.3 7.7 7.0 7.3 4 12.0 11.3 13.7 9.4 8.2 7.5 7.9 7.2 5 27.0 12.0 11.2 13.6 9.4 8.1 7.5 7.8 6 13.0 26.8 11.9 11.2 13.6 9.4 8.1 7.5 7 16.0 12.6 26.0 11.5 10.8 13.2 9.1 7.8 8 19.0 15.5 12.2 25.2 11.2 10.5 12.8 8.8 9 11.0 18.0 14.7 11.6 24.0 10.6 10.0 12.1 10 25.0 11.0 18.1 14.8 11.6 24.0 10.7 10.0 11 21.0 24.3 10.7 17.6 14.4 11.3 23.4 10.4 12 22.0 21.3 24.7 10.9 17.9 14.6 11.5 23.8 K-6 96.0 90.0 71.0 66.1 62.4 56.3 54.5 53.7 7-8 35.0 28.1 38.2 36.7 22.0 23.7 21.9 16.6 9-12 79.0 74.6 68.2 54.9 67.9 60.5 55.6 56.3 K-12 210.0 192.7 177.4 157.7 152.3 140.5 132.0 126.6












Study Area 30H Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 4.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 4.1 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 3.0 0.0 4.1 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 2.0 3.0 0.0 4.1 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 6.0 1.9 2.9 0.0 3.9 2.8 0.0 0.0 8 2.0 5.8 1.9 2.8 0.0 3.8 2.7 0.0 9 3.0 1.9 5.5 1.8 2.7 0.0 3.6 2.6 10 4.0 3.0 1.9 5.5 1.8 2.7 0.0 3.6 11 4.0 3.9 2.9 1.9 5.4 1.7 2.6 0.0 12 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.0 1.9 5.5 1.8 2.6 K-6 12.0 10.0 7.0 7.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 8.0 7.7 4.8 2.8 3.9 6.6 2.7 0.0 9-12 15.0 12.9 14.3 12.2 11.8 9.9 8.0 8.8 K-12 35.0 30.6 26.1 22.0 18.6 16.5 10.7 8.8 Study Area 30I Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 7.0 6.5 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 1 4.0 7.1 6.5 6.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.5 2 7.0 3.9 6.9 6.4 6.7 6.1 6.4 6.4 3 3.0 7.0 3.9 7.0 6.4 6.7 6.1 6.4 4 3.0 3.0 6.9 3.9 6.9 6.3 6.6 6.0 5 5.0 3.0 2.9 6.9 3.8 6.8 6.3 6.5 6 3.0 5.1 3.0 3.0 6.9 3.9 6.9 6.3 7 3.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 2.9 6.9 3.9 6.8 8 4.0 3.0 2.9 5.0 3.0 2.9 6.8 3.8 9 7.0 4.2 3.1 3.1 5.2 3.1 3.1 7.2 10 6.0 7.4 4.5 3.3 3.3 5.5 3.3 3.2 11 8.0 5.8 7.2 4.3 3.2 3.2 5.4 3.2 12 2.0 8.2 6.0 7.4 4.4 3.3 3.3 5.5 K-6 32.0 35.6 36.8 40.2 43.4 42.8 45.3 44.5 7-8 7.0 6.0 7.9 8.0 5.9 9.8 10.7 10.6 9-12 23.0 25.6 20.8 18.1 16.1 15.1 15.1 19.1 K-12 62.0 67.2 65.5 66.3 65.4 67.7 71.1 74.2









Study Area 30N Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 3.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 3 0.0 2.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 4 1.0 0.0 2.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 5 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 6 1.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 7 1.0 1.0 3.9 1.0 0.0 2.8 0.9 0.9 8 0.0 1.0 0.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 2.7 0.9 9 2.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 2.6 10 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 11 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 3.5 0.9 12 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 3.5 K-6 11.0 10.8 7.6 7.4 8.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 7-8 1.0 2.0 4.8 4.7 0.9 2.8 3.6 1.8 9-12 5.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 5.4 6.3 5.3 7.0 K-12 17.0 16.8 16.3 15.9 14.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 Study Area 31A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 1 3.0 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 2 7.0 2.9 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.7 3 6.0 6.3 2.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.3 4 4.0 5.5 5.8 2.4 3.3 3.0 3.2 2.9 5 3.0 4.0 5.6 5.9 2.4 3.3 3.1 3.2 6 3.0 2.9 3.9 5.4 5.6 2.3 3.2 3.0 7 1.0 3.1 3.0 4.0 5.6 5.8 2.4 3.3 8 2.0 1.0 3.0 2.9 3.9 5.4 5.6 2.3 9 6.0 2.1 1.0 3.1 3.0 4.0 5.6 5.8 10 3.0 5.9 2.1 1.0 3.1 2.9 4.0 5.5 11 4.0 2.8 5.5 1.9 0.9 2.8 2.7 3.7 12 4.0 4.2 2.9 5.8 2.0 1.0 3.0 2.9 K-6 30.0 29.5 29.6 28.5 25.8 23.0 23.8 23.5 7-8 3.0 4.1 6.0 6.9 9.5 11.2 8.0 5.6 9-12 17.0 15.0 11.5 11.8 9.0 10.7 15.3 17.9 K-12 50.0 48.6 47.1 47.2 44.3 44.9 47.1 47.0

























































Study Area 55D Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 15.0 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 1 17.0 15.4 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 2 9.0 17.1 15.5 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 3 17.0 8.8 16.6 15.0 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 4 7.0 16.7 8.6 16.3 14.8 14.4 14.6 14.6 5 18.0 6.6 15.7 8.1 15.4 13.9 13.6 13.7 6 8.0 18.4 6.8 16.1 8.3 15.7 14.3 13.9 7 12.0 7.7 17.7 6.5 15.4 8.0 15.1 13.7 8 11.0 12.6 8.0 18.5 6.8 16.2 8.4 15.8 9 19.0 10.4 12.0 7.6 17.6 6.4 15.4 7.9 10 12.0 19.0 10.4 12.0 7.6 17.6 6.4 15.4 11 18.0 11.7 18.5 10.1 11.6 7.4 17.1 6.3 12 7.0 20.2 13.1 20.7 11.4 13.0 8.3 19.2 K-6 91.0 97.7 93.0 100.7 98.4 104.1 102.7 102.4 7-8 23.0 20.3 25.7 25.0 22.2 24.2 23.5 29.5 9-12 56.0 61.3 54.0 50.4 48.2 44.4 47.2 48.8 K-12 170.0 179.3 172.7 176.1 168.8 172.7 173.4 180.7 Study Area 56 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 80.0 77.2 80.5 74.0 77.0 77.0 76.9 76.1 1 78.0 76.7 72.6 74.9 68.1 70.9 70.9 70.8 2 81.0 86.4 83.3 78.2 79.7 72.4 75.4 75.4 3 68.0 87.0 91.0 87.0 80.7 82.3 74.8 77.9 4 75.0 71.3 88.7 91.9 87.0 80.7 82.3 74.8 5 61.0 87.1 81.2 99.7 102.2 96.8 89.9 91.6 6 102.0 65.2 90.1 83.3 101.2 103.8 98.2 91.2 7 109.0 99.6 63.4 86.6 79.4 96.5 98.9 93.6 8 101.0 114.8 103.9 66.1 89.2 81.8 99.4 101.9 9 110.0 98.2 110.0 99.1 62.7 84.6 77.5 94.2 10 105.0 113.5 100.2 111.5 99.9 63.2 85.3 78.1 11 122.0 117.9 125.7 110.5 122.2 109.5 69.3 93.4 12 120.0 137.9 131.9 139.8 122.3 135.3 121.2 76.7 K-6 545.0 550.9 587.4 589.0 595.9 583.9 568.4 557.8 7-8 210.0 214.4 167.3 152.7 168.6 178.3 198.3 195.5 9-12 457.0 467.5 467.8 460.9 407.1 392.6 353.3 342.4 K-12 1212.0 1232.8 1222.5 1202.6 1171.6 1154.8 1120.0 1095.7














































































Study Area 81C Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 1 3.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3 5.0 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4.0 5.0 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 5 6.0 3.7 4.6 1.8 2.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 6 3.0 5.8 3.5 4.4 1.8 2.6 3.5 3.4 7 6.0 3.1 5.9 3.6 4.5 1.8 2.6 3.6 8 4.0 6.1 3.1 6.0 3.7 4.6 1.8 2.7 9 4.0 4.3 6.5 3.3 6.5 3.9 4.9 2.0 10 1.0 3.9 4.2 6.4 3.3 6.4 3.9 4.9 11 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.2 6.4 3.3 6.4 3.9 12 1.0 0.0 1.1 4.2 4.5 6.8 3.5 6.7 K-6 27.0 27.4 24.9 25.0 24.3 25.9 26.7 26.7 7-8 10.0 9.2 9.0 9.6 8.2 6.4 4.4 6.3 9-12 6.0 9.2 15.8 18.1 20.7 20.4 18.7 17.5 K-12 43.0 45.8 49.7 52.7 53.2 52.7 49.8 50.5 Study Area 82A Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 18.0 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 1 8.0 19.9 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 2 10.0 8.7 21.8 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.5 21.5 3 10.0 10.9 9.5 23.7 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.4 4 10.0 9.6 10.5 9.2 22.9 22.4 22.6 22.7 5 16.0 10.4 10.0 10.9 9.5 23.8 23.3 23.5 6 16.0 16.2 10.5 10.1 11.0 9.6 24.0 23.5 7 18.0 15.3 15.5 10.1 9.7 10.6 9.2 23.0 8 12.0 18.3 15.6 15.8 10.2 9.9 10.8 9.4 9 18.0 12.4 18.9 16.1 16.2 10.6 10.2 11.1 10 16.0 19.0 13.0 19.9 16.9 17.1 11.1 10.7 11 14.0 14.4 17.1 11.7 17.9 15.2 15.4 10.0 12 16.0 14.8 15.2 18.0 12.4 18.9 16.1 16.3 K-6 88.0 93.3 99.5 112.7 125.6 138.3 152.4 152.1 7-8 30.0 33.6 31.1 25.9 19.9 20.5 20.0 32.4 9-12 64.0 60.6 64.2 65.7 63.4 61.8 52.8 48.1 K-12 182.0 187.5 194.8 204.3 208.9 220.6 225.2 232.6






































































































































































































Study Area 159 Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7-8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


March 14, 2014 Appendix B – Page 234

Middle School Projections by Residence Attendance Area ARROYO SECO JHS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 556.0 523.8 547.4 506.6 537.6 541.0 541.7 538.1 1 540.0 580.9 544.1 570.0 530.7 559.9 560.0 559.8 2 611.0 553.5 592.0 557.0 586.2 544.3 570.5 569.7 3 622.0 608.9 549.6 589.8 558.1 584.3 539.9 564.7 4 636.0 641.0 622.1 566.7 611.2 576.7 600.0 554.1 5 614.0 658.9 659.5 642.9 587.4 630.8 592.2 615.0 6 663.0 611.0 650.8 652.9 640.0 581.8 621.4 582.6 7 650.0 654.0 600.3 638.1 643.0 629.9 568.4 605.8 8 687.0 662.1 662.0 611.5 651.3 656.0 638.5 577.7 7-8 1337.0 1316.1 1262.3 1249.6 1294.3 1285.9 1206.9 1183.5 Attendance Area Castaic MS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 221.0 258.3 243.1 222.2 244.1 268.2 264.7 262.5 1 250.0 219.4 256.5 241.8 230.5 264.8 275.0 265.8 2 307.0 251.5 220.5 258.3 254.0 257.4 278.7 282.8 3 291.0 306.1 250.0 219.5 267.0 276.4 266.3 281.2 4 297.0 278.7 295.8 241.8 221.6 279.7 275.2 259.2 5 309.0 287.0 269.4 286.3 244.1 238.4 281.7 271.3 6 304.0 306.7 285.0 268.1 294.8 267.1 248.2 284.9 7 321.0 302.1 304.9 283.7 275.3 318.8 279.6 253.9 8 334.0 319.5 300.1 303.5 291.7 300.8 332.5 287.3 7-8 655.0 621.6 605.0 587.2 567.0 619.6 612.1 541.2 Attendance Area LA MESA JHS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 603.0 597.7 613.7 608.3 624.6 627.7 626.9 622.7 1 612.0 623.0 621.9 640.6 633.6 643.9 641.6 636.0 2 639.0 631.5 646.3 648.3 666.4 653.2 658.1 650.7 3 605.0 647.8 646.6 662.5 661.9 673.4 654.0 654.8 4 611.0 617.3 663.0 665.0 678.2 670.9 676.5 652.4 5 543.0 629.0 639.6 686.0 689.8 693.7 679.8 681.2 6 623.0 566.1 656.2 668.9 714.8 713.6 710.3 691.7 7 603.0 603.5 559.6 648.5 659.6 686.3 679.7 674.0 8 548.0 615.4 623.5 584.6 669.9 666.7 688.4 676.8 7-8 1151.0 1218.9 1183.1 1233.1 1329.5 1353.0 1368.1 1350.8 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC) STUDENTS. HOWEVER, THE

ABOVE FIGURES DO NOT INCLUDE OUT-OF-DISTRICT STUDENTS OR “UNMATCHED” STUDENT RECORDS. FOR A DETAILED ACCOUNT OF STUDENTS PER SCHOOL, PLEASE SEE THE 7-8

ATTENDANCE MATRIX ON PAGE 23.



Middle School Projections by Residence (continued) Attendance Area PLACERITA JHS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 487.0 486.5 475.3 438.8 457.3 463.4 460.0 455.6 1 543.0 499.1 498.6 487.1 449.7 469.5 475.8 471.8 2 510.0 545.4 500.7 500.2 488.7 451.9 471.8 477.7 3 521.0 510.7 545.2 500.8 500.3 489.6 452.8 472.3 4 519.0 515.3 504.7 538.7 494.9 495.2 484.6 447.9 5 515.0 516.1 512.0 501.1 533.8 492.6 492.8 481.9 6 513.0 521.7 523.1 519.2 507.2 542.4 499.9 499.8 7 551.0 514.3 523.5 524.8 518.7 512.7 544.4 503.3 8 554.0 553.2 516.6 526.1 527.9 521.7 515.8 547.3 7-8 1105.0 1067.5 1040.1 1050.9 1046.6 1034.4 1060.2 1050.6 Attendance Area RANCHO PICO JHS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 250.0 251.0 246.1 227.1 240.9 304.2 374.1 434.5 1 336.0 262.9 259.6 254.5 239.0 313.5 417.9 499.5 2 366.0 354.0 273.1 269.8 268.5 311.2 424.4 538.2 3 379.0 372.7 356.6 274.9 275.6 332.8 412.9 534.7 4 401.0 378.0 366.9 351.4 274.7 334.0 428.3 516.6 5 416.0 410.5 382.8 371.5 359.5 340.6 438.0 541.1 6 398.0 419.3 408.8 381.6 374.8 422.0 441.8 548.4 7 468.0 399.9 418.0 407.8 386.8 443.0 522.5 549.0 8 473.0 480.8 407.7 427.9 422.8 466.4 557.5 644.2 7-8 941.0 880.7 825.7 835.7 809.6 909.4 1080.0 1193.2 Attendance Area Rio Norte JHS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 435.0 420.7 447.0 416.7 440.2 446.0 450.8 450.6 1 438.0 441.1 426.9 448.4 415.7 437.8 442.3 445.1 2 494.0 452.4 455.5 437.5 455.9 423.1 444.2 447.1 3 514.0 506.1 464.8 463.9 443.4 461.3 428.2 447.7 4 528.0 536.5 527.1 481.5 478.6 457.7 475.4 440.9 5 563.0 542.5 552.5 538.8 492.4 489.1 468.0 484.3 6 518.0 581.2 560.1 566.1 549.7 503.1 498.8 476.3 7 496.0 515.8 577.3 552.9 556.4 540.5 494.5 487.6 8 546.0 509.1 526.7 584.1 558.3 559.4 544.3 497.0 7-8 1042.0 1024.9 1104.0 1137.0 1114.7 1099.9 1038.8 984.6 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC) STUDENTS. HOWEVER, THE





Middle School Projections by Residence (continued) Attendance Area SIERRA VISTA JHS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 508.0 489.5 500.9 499.1 512.3 521.5 526.2 529.7 1 510.0 516.5 501.0 518.1 520.5 536.7 542.3 545.8 2 526.0 513.1 524.3 514.8 536.0 541.7 553.8 558.1 3 530.0 532.0 521.4 540.8 535.1 559.2 561.4 572.2 4 515.0 531.4 537.4 531.1 554.4 552.6 573.3 574.4 5 587.0 509.7 529.5 542.4 538.5 566.8 561.1 580.5 6 594.0 603.0 525.7 552.2 570.3 566.8 590.7 583.5 7 625.0 576.7 588.1 517.1 547.8 569.0 562.9 586.2 8 632.0 637.4 593.0 610.0 540.8 577.4 598.1 589.9 7-8 1257.0 1214.1 1181.1 1127.1 1088.6 1146.4 1161.0 1176.1 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC) STUDENTS. HOWEVER, THE





High School Projections by Residence, Based on Current (“Old”) Boundaries Attendance Area CANYON HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 442.0 425.0 435.8 433.8 444.2 450.5 451.1 451.5 1 438.0 449.3 435.3 451.9 451.1 462.9 463.9 463.4 2 435.0 443.7 459.6 451.6 469.4 470.6 477.1 476.8 3 444.0 438.7 450.3 474.5 467.3 486.5 482.4 487.4 4 438.0 441.6 440.0 456.9 482.2 477.3 491.2 485.8 5 493.0 431.4 438.2 443.4 460.2 488.9 478.4 491.0 6 493.0 502.9 442.3 455.0 461.8 478.7 501.3 489.2 7 534.0 479.6 491.8 437.0 451.3 460.1 471.9 494.1 8 532.0 544.0 493.4 511.2 455.3 473.3 479.5 489.7 9 534.0 552.9 566.0 520.1 538.3 480.0 494.0 500.3 10 614.0 530.1 550.7 568.6 522.7 540.9 479.4 492.1 11 579.0 596.4 517.4 542.5 558.5 513.2 527.9 467.8 12 670.0 608.1 628.8 551.1 578.7 597.3 545.3 561.6 9-12 2397.0 2287.5 2262.9 2182.3 2198.2 2131.4 2046.6 2021.8 Attendance Area CASTAIC AREA HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 221.0 258.3 243.1 222.2 244.1 268.2 264.7 262.5 1 250.0 219.4 256.5 241.8 230.5 264.8 275.0 265.8 2 307.0 251.5 220.5 258.3 254.0 257.4 278.7 282.8 3 291.0 306.1 250.0 219.5 267.0 276.4 266.3 281.2 4 297.0 278.7 295.8 241.8 221.6 279.7 275.2 259.2 5 309.0 287.0 269.4 286.3 244.1 238.4 281.7 271.3 6 304.0 306.7 285.0 268.1 294.8 267.1 248.2 284.9 7 321.0 302.1 304.9 283.7 275.3 318.8 279.6 253.9 8 334.0 319.5 300.1 303.5 291.7 300.8 332.5 287.3 9 394.0 337.7 322.2 303.4 315.2 317.0 314.9 341.5 10 376.0 382.7 327.8 313.6 303.2 328.4 319.9 312.4 11 340.0 368.9 375.5 322.0 316.6 320.0 334.5 320.6 12 380.0 346.8 377.6 384.8 338.7 349.0 341.4 350.5 9-12 1490.0 1436.1 1403.1 1323.8 1273.7 1314.4 1310.7 1325.0 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)

STUDENTS. HOWEVER, THE ABOVE FIGURES DO NOT INCLUDE OUT-OF-DISTRICT STUDENTS OR “UNMATCHED” STUDENT RECORDS. FOR A DETAILED ACCOUNT OF STUDENTS PER SCHOOL,

PLEASE SEE THE 9th-10th GRADE HS MATRIX ON PAGE 24 AND THE 11th -12th GRADE HS ATTENDANCE MATRIX ON PAGE 25.

FOR THE INCORPORATION OF BOTH THE NEW AND OLD BOUNDARIES, PLEASE SEE THE

“TRANSITION PLAN” PROJECTION SUMMARY ON PAGE 39.



High School Projections by Residence, Based on Current (“Old”) Boundaries Attendance Area GOLDEN VALLEY HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 669.0 662.2 678.7 673.6 692.6 698.8 702.0 701.0 1 684.0 690.1 687.6 706.8 703.1 717.7 720.0 718.4 2 730.0 700.8 711.0 711.5 733.0 724.3 734.8 731.9 3 691.0 741.0 717.7 728.8 729.6 746.2 733.0 739.6 4 688.0 707.0 760.4 739.2 750.5 746.2 758.6 741.1 5 637.0 707.3 730.9 785.1 768.2 771.6 762.4 770.8 6 724.0 666.2 739.6 766.2 823.3 801.7 799.6 786.0 7 694.0 700.6 655.8 728.6 756.1 795.3 770.7 766.1 8 648.0 708.8 723.1 683.5 755.5 770.8 807.0 777.0 9 678.0 650.0 715.6 734.0 695.7 759.4 770.1 803.3 10 673.0 694.4 672.4 739.0 758.8 708.8 770.1 778.7 11 631.0 691.5 717.7 696.6 764.3 773.7 717.3 774.7 12 703.0 706.9 779.3 809.9 784.2 849.2 852.6 790.0 9-12 2685.0 2742.8 2885.0 2979.5 3003.0 3091.1 3110.1 3146.7 Attendance Area HART HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 439.0 438.6 428.5 395.5 412.2 417.1 413.5 409.6 1 477.0 450.1 449.6 439.3 405.5 422.6 427.6 424.0 2 466.0 479.8 452.0 451.5 441.1 407.2 424.4 429.4 3 461.0 466.1 478.8 451.4 451.0 440.6 406.7 423.9 4 459.0 456.4 461.0 473.5 446.5 446.0 435.8 402.3 5 458.0 458.6 455.5 459.2 471.3 445.4 445.0 434.7 6 453.0 463.3 464.2 461.4 464.3 477.5 450.7 450.3 7 491.0 454.3 465.1 465.9 460.8 469.0 478.8 453.7 8 491.0 491.1 454.6 465.7 466.9 461.1 469.8 479.1 9 505.0 503.1 503.7 467.3 478.7 479.0 473.7 483.8 10 530.0 491.3 488.9 490.0 454.3 465.9 466.8 460.9 11 513.0 538.6 499.0 496.5 496.6 460.0 471.4 473.1 12 563.0 533.7 559.7 519.2 516.2 517.4 479.0 490.9 9-12 2111.0 2066.7 2051.3 1973.0 1945.8 1922.3 1890.9 1908.7 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)







High School Projections by Residence, Based on Current (“Old”) Boundaries Attendance Area SAUGUS HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 476.0 449.9 470.3 436.2 463.8 467.2 468.0 465.1 1 465.0 496.6 466.2 488.8 456.5 482.1 482.2 482.1 2 516.0 475.6 504.1 475.8 501.6 467.0 489.4 488.6 3 524.0 513.5 471.4 501.5 476.5 499.2 462.2 483.2 4 512.0 541.9 525.6 487.6 521.8 494.1 514.0 475.4 5 510.0 527.8 554.5 541.0 503.5 535.8 504.4 523.5 6 538.0 508.5 521.6 549.3 539.6 499.1 527.7 496.0 7 530.0 537.6 504.7 517.7 546.6 536.2 491.5 518.8 8 574.0 543.7 547.2 517.2 532.5 561.1 546.1 502.0 9 594.0 587.6 553.9 559.2 530.8 546.1 572.0 555.7 10 567.0 592.7 585.2 552.6 560.7 530.3 544.3 568.4 11 620.0 557.1 580.7 576.2 545.9 552.5 521.1 534.2 12 624.0 655.0 587.4 612.6 609.5 576.9 581.3 547.8 9-12 2405.0 2392.4 2307.2 2300.6 2246.9 2205.8 2218.7 2206.1 Attendance Area VALENCIA HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 515.0 494.6 524.0 487.1 514.1 519.8 524.6 523.6 1 513.0 525.4 504.8 529.5 489.9 515.6 520.1 522.8 2 589.0 530.2 543.4 518.7 540.5 500.4 525.3 528.2 3 612.0 601.5 543.1 552.2 525.0 546.3 505.9 529.3 4 652.0 635.7 623.5 560.7 567.9 540.3 561.4 519.6 5 667.0 673.6 657.4 640.7 576.3 584.1 555.8 575.8 6 643.0 683.7 689.3 669.7 650.1 585.8 592.5 562.9 7 616.0 632.2 672.9 673.3 652.7 634.2 571.4 574.6 8 659.0 627.4 641.4 678.4 677.0 654.3 636.7 572.7 9 671.0 670.7 641.4 653.4 688.5 688.2 664.0 646.0 10 612.0 675.4 676.1 645.4 656.7 692.9 689.5 665.8 11 648.0 605.0 666.2 664.6 632.9 643.8 678.3 673.6 12 636.0 667.9 624.1 684.8 681.5 649.4 659.7 694.7 9-12 2567.0 2619.0 2607.8 2648.2 2659.6 2674.3 2691.5 2680.1 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)







High School Projections by Residence, Based on Current (“Old”) Boundaries Attendance Area WEST RANCH HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 298.0 298.9 292.9 270.3 286.0 350.6 420.5 480.6 1 402.0 311.9 308.6 302.4 283.2 360.4 466.2 547.4 2 410.0 419.6 321.8 318.5 316.1 355.9 471.8 586.6 3 439.0 417.3 423.0 324.2 324.9 381.8 459.0 583.1 4 461.0 436.9 410.6 416.6 323.2 383.2 477.2 562.2 5 473.0 468.0 439.2 413.4 422.0 387.8 485.9 588.4 6 458.0 477.7 467.8 439.5 417.8 486.9 491.0 597.9 7 528.0 459.9 476.5 466.7 444.7 486.7 588.1 598.5 8 536.0 542.8 469.7 488.3 483.7 527.0 603.4 712.4 9 546.0 550.2 553.1 478.4 503.1 554.6 631.0 717.8 10 547.0 557.5 559.0 561.4 489.9 571.8 654.0 737.1 11 520.0 547.9 555.4 556.8 564.0 547.3 660.2 749.6 12 483.0 527.7 552.5 559.0 566.1 630.7 649.1 774.3 9-12 2096.0 2183.3 2220.0 2155.6 2123.1 2304.4 2594.3 2978.8 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)







High School Projections by Residence, Based on New Boundaries Attendance Area CANYON HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 508.0 489.5 500.9 499.1 512.3 521.5 526.2 529.7 1 510.0 516.5 501.0 518.1 520.5 536.7 542.3 545.8 2 526.0 513.1 524.3 514.8 536.0 541.7 553.8 558.1 3 530.0 532.0 521.4 540.8 535.1 559.2 561.4 572.2 4 515.0 531.4 537.4 531.1 554.4 552.6 573.3 574.4 5 587.0 509.7 529.5 542.4 538.5 566.8 561.1 580.5 6 594.0 603.0 525.7 552.2 570.3 566.8 590.7 583.5 7 625.0 576.7 588.1 517.1 547.8 569.0 562.9 586.2 8 632.0 637.4 593.0 610.0 540.8 577.4 598.1 589.9 9 615.0 651.3 657.9 618.2 637.3 566.9 600.2 620.8 10 701.0 613.8 652.3 663.6 625.9 646.2 573.1 605.7 11 657.0 683.4 601.0 644.1 655.3 619.2 636.9 565.4 12 757.0 693.1 723.6 642.3 691.5 705.9 665.0 684.6 9-12 2730.0 2641.6 2634.8 2568.2 2610.0 2538.2 2475.2 2476.5 Attendance Area CASTAIC AREA HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 221.0 258.3 243.1 222.2 244.1 268.2 264.7 262.5 1 250.0 219.4 256.5 241.8 230.5 264.8 275.0 265.8 2 307.0 251.5 220.5 258.3 254.0 257.4 278.7 282.8 3 291.0 306.1 250.0 219.5 267.0 276.4 266.3 281.2 4 297.0 278.7 295.8 241.8 221.6 279.7 275.2 259.2 5 309.0 287.0 269.4 286.3 244.1 238.4 281.7 271.3 6 304.0 306.7 285.0 268.1 294.8 267.1 248.2 284.9 7 321.0 302.1 304.9 283.7 275.3 318.8 279.6 253.9 8 334.0 319.5 300.1 303.5 291.7 300.8 332.5 287.3 9 394.0 337.7 322.2 303.4 315.2 317.0 314.9 341.5 10 376.0 382.7 327.8 313.6 303.2 328.4 319.9 312.4 11 340.0 368.9 375.5 322.0 316.6 320.0 334.5 320.6 12 380.0 346.8 377.6 384.8 338.7 349.0 341.4 350.5 9-12 1490.0 1436.1 1403.1 1323.8 1273.7 1314.4 1310.7 1325.0 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)







High School Projections by Residence, Based on New Boundaries (continued) Attendance Area GOLDEN VALLEY HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 603.0 597.7 613.7 608.3 624.6 627.7 626.9 622.7 1 612.0 623.0 621.9 640.6 633.6 643.9 641.6 636.0 2 639.0 631.5 646.3 648.3 666.4 653.2 658.1 650.7 3 605.0 647.8 646.6 662.5 661.9 673.4 654.0 654.8 4 611.0 617.3 663.0 665.0 678.2 670.9 676.5 652.4 5 543.0 629.0 639.6 686.0 689.8 693.7 679.8 681.2 6 623.0 566.1 656.2 668.9 714.8 713.6 710.3 691.7 7 603.0 603.5 559.6 648.5 659.6 686.3 679.7 674.0 8 548.0 615.4 623.5 584.6 669.9 666.7 688.4 676.8 9 597.0 551.6 623.7 636.0 596.7 672.5 663.9 682.8 10 586.0 610.7 570.7 644.0 655.6 603.6 676.4 665.1 11 553.0 604.5 634.0 594.9 667.4 667.6 608.3 677.1 12 616.0 621.9 684.5 718.7 671.4 740.6 732.9 667.0 9-12 2352.0 2388.7 2512.9 2593.6 2591.1 2684.3 2681.5 2692.0 Attendance Area HART HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 487.0 486.5 475.3 438.8 457.3 463.4 460.0 455.6 1 543.0 499.1 498.6 487.1 449.7 469.5 475.8 471.8 2 510.0 545.4 500.7 500.2 488.7 451.9 471.8 477.7 3 521.0 510.7 545.2 500.8 500.3 489.6 452.8 472.3 4 519.0 515.3 504.7 538.7 494.9 495.2 484.6 447.9 5 515.0 516.1 512.0 501.1 533.8 492.6 492.8 481.9 6 513.0 521.7 523.1 519.2 507.2 542.4 499.9 499.8 7 551.0 514.3 523.5 524.8 518.7 512.7 544.4 503.3 8 554.0 553.2 516.6 526.1 527.9 521.7 515.8 547.3 9 561.0 567.7 567.3 530.8 540.6 542.0 536.4 531.2 10 601.0 548.4 554.7 554.8 519.1 529.6 531.6 525.1 11 594.0 607.7 554.6 560.5 559.7 523.7 533.9 536.4 12 634.0 618.1 631.7 577.0 582.9 583.7 545.8 556.3 9-12 2390.0 2341.9 2308.3 2223.1 2202.3 2179.0 2147.7 2149.0 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)







High School Projections by Residence, Based on New Boundaries (continued) Attendance Area SAUGUS HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 556.0 523.8 547.4 506.6 537.6 541.0 541.7 538.1 1 540.0 580.9 544.1 570.0 530.7 559.9 560.0 559.8 2 611.0 553.5 592.0 557.0 586.2 544.3 570.5 569.7 3 622.0 608.9 549.6 589.8 558.1 584.3 539.9 564.7 4 636.0 641.0 622.1 566.7 611.2 576.7 600.0 554.1 5 614.0 658.9 659.5 642.9 587.4 630.8 592.2 615.0 6 663.0 611.0 650.8 652.9 640.0 581.8 621.4 582.6 7 650.0 654.0 600.3 638.1 643.0 629.9 568.4 605.8 8 687.0 662.1 662.0 611.5 651.3 656.0 638.5 577.7 9 710.0 700.0 671.5 673.4 624.6 664.2 666.4 647.6 10 676.0 705.0 693.9 666.5 671.2 621.1 658.7 659.8 11 747.0 663.2 689.9 681.9 656.7 660.0 609.4 645.5 12 740.0 781.6 693.0 721.9 715.4 687.6 688.6 636.1 9-12 2873.0 2849.8 2748.3 2743.7 2667.9 2632.9 2623.1 2589.0 Attendance Area VALENCIA HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 435.0 420.7 447.0 416.7 440.2 446.0 450.8 450.6 1 438.0 441.1 426.9 448.4 415.7 437.8 442.3 445.1 2 494.0 452.4 455.5 437.5 455.9 423.1 444.2 447.1 3 514.0 506.1 464.8 463.9 443.4 461.3 428.2 447.7 4 528.0 536.5 527.1 481.5 478.6 457.7 475.4 440.9 5 563.0 542.5 552.5 538.8 492.4 489.1 468.0 484.3 6 518.0 581.2 560.1 566.1 549.7 503.1 498.8 476.3 7 496.0 515.8 577.3 552.9 556.4 540.5 494.5 487.6 8 546.0 509.1 526.7 584.1 558.3 559.4 544.3 497.0 9 555.0 558.3 523.7 539.3 594.7 570.1 569.7 554.1 10 503.0 563.1 567.4 531.5 546.1 602.2 575.2 574.4 11 521.0 498.9 557.0 558.9 522.1 536.3 590.1 562.4 12 520.0 541.4 518.5 575.5 575.5 538.7 552.3 606.4 9-12 2099.0 2161.7 2166.6 2205.2 2238.4 2247.3 2287.3 2297.3 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)







High School Projections by Residence, Based on New Boundaries (continued) Attendance Area WEST RANCH HS Projection Date 10/2/2013 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 250.0 251.0 246.1 227.1 240.9 304.2 374.1 434.5 1 336.0 262.9 259.6 254.5 239.0 313.5 417.9 499.5 2 366.0 354.0 273.1 269.8 268.5 311.2 424.4 538.2 3 379.0 372.7 356.6 274.9 275.6 332.8 412.9 534.7 4 401.0 378.0 366.9 351.4 274.7 334.0 428.3 516.6 5 416.0 410.5 382.8 371.5 359.5 340.6 438.0 541.1 6 398.0 419.3 408.8 381.6 374.8 422.0 441.8 548.4 7 468.0 399.9 418.0 407.8 386.8 443.0 522.5 549.0 8 473.0 480.8 407.7 427.9 422.8 466.4 557.5 644.2 9 490.0 485.7 489.5 414.9 441.2 491.6 568.4 670.4 10 476.0 500.4 493.2 496.6 425.1 508.1 589.2 672.9 11 439.0 478.8 499.9 492.7 501.0 483.7 597.7 686.2 12 412.0 443.4 480.6 501.1 499.5 564.5 582.3 708.9 9-12 1817.0 1908.3 1963.2 1905.3 1866.8 2047.9 2337.6 2738.4 THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS DO INCLUDE ALL CONTINUATION HIGH AND SPECIAL DAY CLASS (SDC)






March 14, 2014 Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc. Page XXX

Castaic SFD's Newhall SFD's Sulphur SFD's Saugus SFD's19 SFD's Total 33 SFD's Total 442 SFD's Total 718 SFD's Total

19 units occupied 33 units occupied 442 units occupied 718 units occupied

CA K-5 7 0.368 NE K-6 6 0.182 SS K-6 136 0.308 SS K-6 299 0.416CA 6-8 0 0.000 HA 7-8 5 0.152 SFD HA 7-8 43 0.097 SFD HA 7-8 74 0.103 SFDCA K-6 7 0.368 SFD HA 9-12 16 0.485 HA 9-12 50 0.113 HA 9-12 113 0.157CA 7-8 0 0.000 K-12 27 0.818 K-12 229 0.518 K-12 486 0.677HA 9-12 7 0.368

K-12 14 0.737

Sulphur MFA's Saugus MFA's90 MFA's Total 427 MFA's Total

90 units occupied 427 units occupied

SS K-6 4 0.044 SS K-6 107 0.251HA 7-8 3 0.033 MFA HA 7-8 22 0.052 MFAHA 9-12 7 0.078 HA 9-12 51 0.119

K-12 14 0.156 K-12 180 0.422

The Vista's @ West HillsSaugus APT's220 APT's Total

220 units occupied

SS K-6 45 0.2051 MOBILHOME UNIT BUILT HA 7-8 30 0.136 APT

IN 2008 (NO STUDENTS) HA 9-12 37 0.168(NOT USED) K-12 112 0.509

= Used in the Fall 2013 projectionsSCV-wide SFD's SCV-wide MFA's SCV-wide APT's1,212 SFD's Total 517 MFA's Total 220 APT's Total When sample sizes were deemed too low to use,

1,212 units occupied 517 units occupied 220 units occupied then the Santa Clarita Valley-wide Yields were used.

K-5 399 0.329 K-5 104 0.201 K-5 40 0.1826-8 171 0.141 6-8 32 0.062 6-8 35 0.159K-6 448 0.370 K-6 111 0.215 K-6 45 0.2057-8 122 0.101 SFD 7-8 25 0.048 MFA 7-8 30 0.136 APT9-12 186 0.153 9-12 58 0.112 9-12 37 0.168K-12 756 0.624 K-12 194 0.375 K-12 112 0.509

Santa Clarita Valley-Wide

NO APARTMENTS BUILTOVER THE LAST 5 YEARS

CASTAIC NEWHALL

NO CONDOMINIUMS BUILTOVER THE LAST 5 YEARS


STUDENT YIELD FACTORS BY FEEDER DISTRICT(Based on housing units built from 2008-2013)

SULPHUR SAUGUS

NO MOBILHOME UNITS BUILTOVER THE LAST 5 YEARS

NO MOBILHOME UNITS BUILTOVER THE LAST 5 YEARS

NO CONDOMINIUMS BUILTOVER THE LAST 5 YEARS



March 14, 2014 Appendix C

“COMMUNITY ANALYST ONLINE” REPORTS:

HOUSING PROFILE FOR THE HART DISTRICT BOUNDRY DEMOGRAPHIC & INCOME PROFILE FOR THE HART DISTRICT BOUNDARY

For additional reference, DDP has also included two third-party reports for the District Boundary. The first is a Housing Profile and the second is a Demographic & Income Profile. Both set of reports look at the Census 2010 breakdown for the District area

and then lists the 2013 information and then projects the data for 2018.

*The Third Party Demographic Reports are prepared using ESRI’s Community Analyst Online (CAO). Reports are created by overlaying the William S. Hart Union High School District boundary onto the ESRI CAO data These reports are for informational purposes only; DDP is not responsible for the

accuracy of the data.

Housing ProfileWm S Hart UHSD

Population Households2010 Total Population 267,208 2013 Median Household Income $88,4612013 Total Population 272,437 2018 Median Household Income $99,3322018 Total Population 280,677 2013-2018 Annual Rate 2.35%2013-2018 Annual Rate 0.60%

Census 2010 2013 2018Housing Units by Occupancy Status and Tenure Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Total Housing Units 89,489 100.0% 91,651 100.0% 94,769 100.0%Occupied 85,457 95.5% 86,852 94.8% 89,530 94.5%

Owner 61,447 68.7% 61,232 66.8% 63,874 67.4%Renter 24,010 26.8% 25,620 28.0% 25,656 27.1%

Vacant 4,032 4.5% 4,798 5.2% 5,239 5.5%

2013 2018Owner Occupied Housing Units by Value Number Percent Number Percent

Total 61,227 100.0% 63,869 100.0%<$50,000 170 0.3% 70 0.1%$50,000-$99,999 1,322 2.2% 654 1.0%$100,000-$149,999 1,979 3.2% 1,224 1.9%$150,000-$199,999 2,695 4.4% 2,503 3.9%$200,000-$249,999 3,720 6.1% 3,801 6.0%

$250,000-$299,999 5,209 8.5% 4,712 7.4%$300,000-$399,999 14,761 24.1% 11,155 17.5%$400,000-$499,999 13,004 21.2% 11,037 17.3%$500,000-$749,999 13,657 22.3% 14,874 23.3%$750,000-$999,999 3,082 5.0% 11,282 17.7%$1,000,000+ 1,628 2.7% 2,557 4.0%

Median Value $405,827 $470,815Average Value $447,152 $532,784

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. Esri forecasts for 2013 and 2018.

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Housing ProfileWm S Hart UHSD

Census 2010 Owner Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status Number PercentTotal 61,447 100.0%

Owned with a Mortgage/Loan 54,344 88.4%Owned Free and Clear 7,103 11.6%

Census 2010 Vacant Housing Units by StatusNumber Percent

Total 4,032 100.0%For Rent 1,797 44.6%Rented- Not Occupied 121 3.0%For Sale Only 970 24.1%Sold - Not Occupied 167 4.1%Seasonal/Recreational/Occasional Use 321 8.0%For Migrant Workers 10 0.2%Other Vacant 673 16.7%

Census 2010 Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder and Home Ownership Owner Occupied Units

Occupied Units Number % of OccupiedTotal 85,458 61,447 71.9%

15-24 2,050 452 22.0%25-34 11,435 5,418 47.4%35-44 20,839 14,524 69.7%45-54 23,654 18,962 80.2%55-64 14,850 12,453 83.9%65-74 7,362 6,024 81.8%75-84 3,803 2,780 73.1%85+ 1,465 834 56.9%

Census 2010 Occupied Housing Units by Race/Ethnicity of Householder and Home Ownership Owner Occupied Units


White Alone 63,997 47,882 74.8%Black/African American 3,390 1,821 53.7%American Indian/Alaska 475 290 61.1%Asian Alone 8,157 6,269 76.9%Pacific Islander Alone 116 68 58.6%Other Race Alone 6,893 3,593 52.1%Two or More Races 2,429 1,524 62.7%

Hispanic Origin 17,474 10,281 58.8%

Census 2010 Occupied Housing Units by Size and Home Ownership Owner Occupied Units


1-Person 15,089 9,234 61.2%2-Person 23,167 17,157 74.1%3-Person 15,960 11,876 74.4%4-Person 17,456 13,572 77.7%5-Person 8,201 6,057 73.9%6-Person 3,309 2,255 68.1%7+ Person 2,275 1,295 56.9%

Data Note: Persons of Hispanic Origin may be of any race.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1.

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Demographic and Income ProfileWm S Hart UHSD

Summary Census 2010 2013 2018Population 267,208 272,437 280,677Households 85,457 86,853 89,530Families 65,352 66,462 68,594Average Household Size 3.02 3.03 3.04Owner Occupied Housing Units 61,447 61,232 63,874Renter Occupied Housing Units 24,010 25,620 25,656Median Age 35.1 35.4 36.1

Trends: 2013 - 2018 Annual Rate Area State NationalPopulation 0.60% 0.78% 0.71%Households 0.61% 0.77% 0.74%Families 0.63% 0.76% 0.63%Owner HHs 0.85% 1.07% 0.94%Median Household Income 2.35% 3.66% 3.03%

2013 2018 Households by Income Number Percent Number Percent

<$15,000 4,420 5.1% 4,009 4.5%$15,000 - $24,999 4,552 5.2% 3,405 3.8%$25,000 - $34,999 5,129 5.9% 4,545 5.1%$35,000 - $49,999 7,574 8.7% 6,632 7.4%$50,000 - $74,999 13,199 15.2% 10,397 11.6%$75,000 - $99,999 13,980 16.1% 16,097 18.0%$100,000 - $149,999 20,594 23.7% 23,300 26.0%$150,000 - $199,999 9,792 11.3% 12,201 13.6%$200,000+ 7,612 8.8% 8,942 10.0%

Median Household Income $88,461 $99,332Average Household Income $108,821 $124,699Per Capita Income $35,418 $40,482

Census 2010 2013 2018 Population by Age Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

0 - 4 17,410 6.5% 17,243 6.3% 17,881 6.4%5 - 9 19,844 7.4% 19,194 7.0% 19,469 6.9%10 - 14 21,670 8.1% 21,168 7.8% 20,912 7.5%15 - 19 22,226 8.3% 21,152 7.8% 19,879 7.1%20 - 24 18,397 6.9% 19,918 7.3% 17,959 6.4%25 - 34 33,637 12.6% 36,016 13.2% 39,611 14.1%35 - 44 42,966 16.1% 40,109 14.7% 40,141 14.3%45 - 54 43,604 16.3% 43,266 15.9% 40,852 14.6%55 - 64 26,080 9.8% 30,096 11.0% 33,953 12.1%

65 - 74 12,526 4.7% 14,687 5.4% 18,796 6.7%75 - 84 6,283 2.4% 6,776 2.5% 8,117 2.9%

85+ 2,565 1.0% 2,809 1.0% 3,108 1.1%Census 2010 2013 2018

Race and Ethnicity Number Percent Number Percent Number PercentWhite Alone 179,894 67.3% 181,177 66.5% 183,613 65.4%Black Alone 11,810 4.4% 11,946 4.4% 12,072 4.3%American Indian Alone 1,443 0.5% 1,497 0.5% 1,597 0.6%Asian Alone 28,150 10.5% 29,302 10.8% 31,492 11.2%Pacific Islander Alone 403 0.2% 418 0.2% 476 0.2%Some Other Race Alone 32,779 12.3% 34,505 12.7% 36,735 13.1%Two or More Races 12,729 4.8% 13,593 5.0% 14,692 5.2%

Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 77,103 28.9% 81,226 29.8% 88,252 31.4%Data Note: Income is expressed in current dollars.

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Demographic and Income ProfileWm S Hart UHSD

AreaStateUSA

Trends 2013-2018

Population Households Families Owner HHs Median HH Income

Annual

Rat

e (i

n p

erce

nt)

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

20132018

Population by Age

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Per

cent

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2013 Household Income

<$15K5.1%

$15K - $24K5.2%

$25K - $34K5.9%

$35K - $49K8.7%$50K - $74K

15.2%

$75K - $99K16.1%

$100K - $149K23.7%

$150K - $199K11.3%

$200K+8.8%

2013 Population by Race

White Black Am. Ind. Asian Pacific Other Two+

Perc

ent

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2013 Percent Hispanic Origin: 29.8%

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Documents

Wm. S. Hart Union High School District · 2015-07-03 · Wm. S. Hart Union High School District Valencia, California Student Population Projections Report (By Residence) Fall 2014-2020