Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 1/15
JSM : Modelling Java in The Future
M I N I S T R Y O F P U B L I C W O R K S
D I R E C T O R A T E G E N E R A L O F S PA T I A L P L A N N I N G
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 2/15
The Java Spatial Model is a landThe Java Spatial Model is a land‐‐use change model. It is used to use change model. It is used to
prov e nterna y cons stent uture pro ect ons o :prov e nterna y cons stent uture pro ect ons o :
•• the spatial
distribution
at
the
spatial
distribution
at
desadesa level
of
the
population
and
level
of
the
population
and
employment;employment;
•• the urban area growth needed to accommodate human the urban area growth needed to accommodate human
activitiesactivities
•• the landthe land
‐‐use
chan es
caused
b
the
urban
area
rowthuse
chan es
caused
b
the
urban
area
rowth
JSMJSM makesmakes consistentconsistent projectionsprojections of of thethe spatialspatial distributiondistribution of of
thethe PopulationPopulation andand Employment,Employment, thethe UrbanUrban AreaArea GrowthGrowth andand thethe
associatedassociated LandLand‐‐UseUse ChangesChanges
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 3/15
•• ‐‐
, ,
•• Communication and interaction with other sectors and levels Communication and interaction with other sectors and levels
of governmentof government
•• Analysis of
impacts
of
zoning
in
spatial
plansAnalysis
of
impacts
of
zoning
in
spatial
plans
ii) RTRW Island) RTRW Island‐‐ProvinceProvince‐‐Special regionSpecial region‐‐KabupatenKabupaten/Kota/Kota
ii) Zoning to protect water interests, Central Javaii) Zoning to protect water interests, Central Java
•• Support design
of
spatial
policiesSupport
design
of
spatial
policies
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 4/15
m m
Population
growth
Population
growth
Increasing drinking
water demands
s
t e
s
t e
Household size
reduction
Household size
reduction Land useChange:urbanisation
Increasing waste
load
emissions
r
s
r
s
o s ze growo s ze grow
Increased flooding
a
t e
a
t e
Decrease in
sustainable
Economic
growth
Economic
growth
r a c t i o n
W
W
e t c .
e t c .
GW yield
Increased subsidence
Economic
structure change
Economic
structure change time
L a n d u s e
f
Reduced food supply
Loss of biodiversity
E c o l o g y
E c o l o g y
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 5/15
JSM Model Basic
Spatial PlanStart population,
employment, GDP
Regional
Socio‐economic
Drivers:
overall Regional results
modelpopu a on.
Growth etc
Village land
allocation model
Start land use
data
Village results
0 1 0 - 2 0 5 0
Impacts m e l o o p 2
Postprocessor
impact
indicators
Input
parameters
Watersheds
Water districts,etc
T i
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 6/15
Modelling Urban Area : Current Trend Scenario
Current Trend
Policies based on historic economic growth;Business as usual;Conservation protection efficiency 60-70%;5% economic growth
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 7/15
Modelling Paddy Area : Current Trend Scenario
Current Trend
Policies based on historic economic growth;Business as usual;Conservation protection efficiency 60-70%;5% economic growth
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 8/15
Current Trend : Urban Area in Jabodetabekpunjur
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 9/15
Possible Future Development Trends
Trend Measures / notes
Improved governance leads to better enforcement of conservation
p ans an - e c ency o - .
7% economy growth
Implementation of agricultural law 41/2009 on Food security
Agriculture Provides extra protection for irrigated paddy area and other crop
areas.
7% economic rowth
Water Zoning
Protection according to water zoning principles: standstill of urban
development in area with slope >18%;
7% economic growth
Sustainable Growth Combination of the good governance, agriculture and water zoning;
7% economic growth
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 10/15
Scenario Result : Urban Area Growth
180%
190%
160%
170%
140%
150%
120%
130% CurrentTrend
GoodGovernance
Agriculture
100%
110%WaterZoningSustainableGrowth
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 11/15
Sustainable Growth Scenario : Urban Area
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 12/15
Sustainable Growth Scenario : Paddy Area
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 13/15
Sustainable Growth Scenario : Urban Area
Jabodetabekpunjur
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 14/15
Conclusion
……………………………………………………………………
14www.yanda2309.wordpress.com
8/3/2019 WLW Day 4: JSM : ModellingJava in The Future
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/wlw-day-4-jsm-modellingjava-in-the-future 15/15
15
