WLTP - Long Term Powertrain Planning Potential Effects on

WLTP - Long Term Powertrain Planning Potential Effects on Global Technology MixAndrew Fulbrook

IHS has acquired RL Polk including Polk and CARFAX

Andrew Fulbrook

Director, Global Powertrain Forecasting, IHS Automotive

IHS Automotive Conference

12 September 2013 | Frankfurt

Opening Statements� Road vehicles need to comply with limit values for pollutant exhaust emissions and across

developed regions, CO2 emissions also

� The achievement of limit value compliance is a function of test bench measurements using standardized test cycles

� Light vehicles and motorcycles are tested on a chassis dynamometer using standardized vehicle speed cycles


Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

� For light duty vehicles the development work for a worldwide harmonized cycle (WLTP) and a corresponding test procedure is currently under-way and will be finalized in 2014

Opening Statements� The test cycle defines the driving schedule in terms of vehicle speed and gear use

� The test procedure (not for this presentation ) defines the conditions for which the vehicle undergoes its test cycle, such as vehicle mass, road load, inertia and pre-conditioning

� In 2012, IHS Automotive - Powertrain released its initial assessment of cycle construction techniques, commenting on the political challenges involved with harmonization, the requirements for a ‘real-world’ underpinning and provided a brief assessment of potential powertrain technology consequences



� With the test cycle work now complete, IHS can now provide a deeper assessment of potential powertrain technology and therefore forecast changes as a consequence of WLTC inception, across Europe, Japan, China and North America

� A brief history of the WLTP� Why the WLTP?

� Status and Construction

� Potential effects on Technology Mix� Engine Operating Map Comparison

Presentation Outline



� Engine Operating Map Comparison

� Cycle Transiency Comparison

� Speed*Acceleration Events

� Effect on CO2 Emissions

� Potential effects on our PowertrainForecast

� S-Curve based theory

� Summary

Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) - Objectives

Remove technical barriers on different markets

Reduce calibration costs and methodology development

Introduce globally relevant technology


Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5

Introduce globally relevant technology

To allow for direct international comparison

Reflect real-world driving conditions

To benchmark national performance

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‘The Inconvenient’ Test CycleThe OEM Perspective

NEDCJC08



FTP75/US06

� ADAC tests have attempted to introduce more realistic laboratory conditions; the cycle remains as NEDC, but with an additional motorway element

� All ADAC reference

‘The Inconvenient’ Test CycleThe Consumer Perspective


Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7Source: ICCT working paper 2012-02 http://www.theicct.org/fuel-consumption-discrepancies

� All ADAC reference vehicles used actual weight, not the lowest test weight

� ADAC hot test used a warm engine with an AC-on set-point of 200C

� Sprintmonitor values are true ‘Real-World’ observations









� Speed* Acceleration Events




� Summary

Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) - Organization

Working Group: Worldwide harmonized light vehicles test procedure (WLTP)



Working GroupTest Cycle (DHC)

Working GroupTest Procedure (DTP)

SubgroupLabProcICE

SubgroupLabProcEV

PHASE 1 – 2008-2014

Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) – Phased Approach

Phase 12008 - 2014

• DHC• DTP

• PM/PN Measurement• NO2, VOC, Ammonia

Phase 22012 - 2016

• Off-cycle engine operation• MAC (Mobile Air-Conditioning)

Procedure• Ambient Temperature



• NO2, VOC, Ammonia• Determining Parameters• LabProcEV

• Vehicle Prep• Configuration• Measurement• Formulae for pollutants and

fuel consumption• Reference Fuels

• Ambient Temperature• High Altitude• Durability• In-service conformity

• RDE (Real Driving Emission) test procedure

� Phase 1 calls for DHC & DTP validation completion by end of 2014; could use DTP with NEDC in EU for EU6� Full introduction of Phase 1&2 unlikely before 2020; EU first, followed by Japan, China and India� Still un-clear if the U.S will move on either DHC and/or DTP but could be disadvantaged if it doesn't accept an

element of compromise (technology convergence, global applicability). Target 2016 CAFE review period

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WLTC Class 3 Version 5.3 – The most applicable



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Low Middle High Ex-High TotalL/M/H

Total L/M/H/Ex H

Time in s 589 433 455 323 1477 1800

Distance, km 3.1 4.7 7.1 8.2 15 23.2

Max Speed, km/h 56.5 76.6 97.4 131.3 76.8 (av) 90.4 (av)

Raw Data Source: https://www2.unece.org/wiki/download/attachments/5801079/WLTP-DHC-16-06e_rev.xlsx

Power to mass ratio<= [ 22kW/t ]

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Power to mass ratioMax speed

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Test Cycle Allocation – Fairness for LPV’s



Power to mass ratio<= [ 34kW/t ]

<= [ 90kph ]

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Class3Source: GRPE-65-29. Progress Report of Worldwide Light Duty Test Cycle and Mode Constructionwww.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2013/.../GRPE-65-29.ppt


Y

Max speed>= [ 135kph ]

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Max speed>= [ 120kph ]

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L+M+H+ExHY













� Summary

Engine Operating Map – Small Gasoline – JC08



� These charts show a comparison of engine map coverage in terms of normalized engine speed (n_norm) and engine power (p_norm) for a small gasoline vehicle, comparing WLTC to JC08; completing a full cycle

� P_norm_res is the driving resistance power required for constant speed (road load from rollers)

� P_norm_tot is the engine operating point for each second of the cycle

� P_norm_max is the full-load (WOT) power provided by the engine

� It is quite clear that engine loads and operating areas are greater on WLTC than JC08. This will require OEM’s to reduce emissions across a broader, more transient range of engine operating points. In Japan, the pursuit of fuel economy/CO2 reduction under WLTP could promote GDI-T (pumping loss reduction at WOT), although it will increase particulate number and result in GPF requirements

Source: Green Scoring Workshop –30.04.2013 –Status of the WLTP - Heinz Steven

Engine Operating Map – Small Gasoline - NEDC



� Notice how empty the engine operating map is under NEDC. It is quite clear that engine loads and operating areas are significantly greater on WLTC than NEDC

� OEM’s calibrating for EU sales will be challenged to de-pollute, particularly for downsized gasoline and diesel engines

� Clearly there is a scope for this map switch to promote the increase of electrical assistance in the form of mild, full and plug-in hybrid power to substitute ICE power delivery for emissions map optimization Source: Green Scoring Workshop –30.04.2013 – Status of the WLTP - Heinz Steven

Engine Operating Map – Small Gasoline – FTP75Source: Green Scoring Workshop –30.04.2013 – Status of the WLTP - Heinz Steven



� Both maps are well correlated in the low engine speed, low power range, pointing to the broad similarity between the cycles. However, as with JC08 and NEDC comparisons, the range of the operating map within WLTC is greater than FTP75

� Of particular note in this example, the U.S calibrated vehicle will need to accept more WOT events at a higher engine speed and longer resistance curve’s (more rolling resistance). This could incentivize mechanical boosting (sustained power), especially for low powered vehicles that struggle with engine protection at WOT

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WLTC V5.3 km/hJC08 km/h

WLTC V5.3 Accel.

JC08 Accel.

� Transient-Transient results in less calibration challenges compared to NEDC transition

� Lower engine loads during the first critical 150 seconds will result in lower engine temperature, thereby leading to increased focus on cat light-off speed (pre-heating, HC traps, post injection, cylinder head to catalyst integration)

Cycle Transiency ComparisonWLTC Ver.5.3 (Class 3) Vs. JC08



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Idle Ratio 29.6% 13%

Max Speed, km/h 81.6 131.3


head to catalyst integration)

� Higher vehicle speed in high speed phase results in a wider ratio spread requirement for the transmission. This promotes >8AT, >6MT and >7DCT

� Smaller idle ratio on WLTC will dis-incentivize the use of ‘classic’ idle Stop/Startsystems

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Speed * Acceleration Distribution

Speed*Accleration Events ComparisonWLTC Ver.5.3 (Class 3) Vs. JC08 (w/o Extra High Phase)

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Km/h� 1. Deeper, more frequent deceleration events = Shortened time for Regenerative Braking

� Promotes High Efficiency Alternator’s, high power density batteries and Super/Ultra Capacitor’s � Encourages friction reduction advances for the engine and transmission� Promotes the concept of the E-Clutch

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� 2. Shallow acceleration and deceleration events at high vehicle speed = High Speed Coasting ratio increases� Promotes Stop/Start at Coast� Promotes Cylinder Deactivation

� 3. Deeper acceleration events at a medium vehicle speed = A more effective landscape for Electric Assist� Promotes Mild and Full Hybrid & High Gear Ratio Transmissions

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� Transient nature of cycle results in more calibration challenges than modal. Ability to ‘game’ the cycle will be impacted

� Reduced cold start effect (due to longer cycle), combined with heavier loads (quicker warm-up) during first 150secs could improve emission control

Cycle Transiency ComparisonWLTC Ver.5.3 (Class 3) Vs. NEDC

WLTC V5.3 km/hNEDC km/h

WLTC V5.3 Accel.

NEDC Accel.



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improve emission control efforts, although heavier loads when cold will affect CO2

� Higher vehicle speed results in a wider ratio spread requirement for the transmission. This promotes >8AT, >6MT and <7DCT

� Smaller idle ratio on WLTC will dis-incentivize the use of ‘classic’ idle Stop/Start systems

NEDC WLTC V.5.3 C3


Max Speed, km/h 120 131.3


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Speed*Accleration Events ComparisonWLTC Ver.5.3 (Class 3) Vs. NEDC

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� 1. Stronger acceleration events at low vehicle speed = Requirement for faster torque build-up and rapid gear shifting from low vehicle speed

� Promotes Boosting (GDI-T and/or E-charger) and the use of Mild Hybrid for short boost� Encourages DCT transmissions� Challenges particulate matter after-treatment for diesel engines, particularly low torque engines

� 2. Shallow acceleration and deceleration events at extended high vehicle speed = High Speed Coasting ratio increases

� Promotes Stop/Start & DEAC at coast & Integrated Exhaust Manifolds (no high load enrichment)

� 3. Stronger, occasional acceleration events at medium vehicle speed = A more effective landscape for Electric Assist . Promotes Full Hybrid

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� FTP75/US06 cycle is the most closely correlated to WLTC 5.3, despite reluctant U.S interest. Could review in 2016 (CAFE 2025 review)

� Lower engine loads during the first critical 150 seconds will result in lower engine temperature, thereby leading to increased focus on cat light -off

Cycle Transiency ComparisonWLTC Ver.5.3 (Class 3) Vs. FTP75/US06

WLTC V5.3 km/hFTP75/US06 km/h

WLTC V5.3 Accel.

FTP75/US06 Accel.



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increased focus on cat light -off speed (pre-heating, HC traps, post injection, cylinder head to catalyst integration)

� Reduced cycle length could increase NOX, HC and CO2 emissions, forcing deeper after-treatment adoption

� Idle ratio very closely aligned to FTP75 and so likely a neutral affect on Stop/Start prognosis

FTP75 WLTC V.5 .3 C3


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Speed*Accleration Events ComparisonWLTC Ver.5.3 (Class 3) Vs. FTP75/US06

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� 1. Weaker acceleration events at low vehicle speed = Optimal for low powered hybrids � Promotes Mild and Full Hybrid with low powered motor (downsized hybrids)� Promotes Diesel !

� 2. Weaker deceleration events at low vehicle speed = Lengthened time for Regeneration� Promotes Regenerative Braking using low powered generators

� 3. Shallow decelerations at extended high vehicle speed = More constant engine speed operation� Promotes Downsizing� Promotes Cylinder Deactivation� Promotes >8AT

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Key themes on Potential ‘Mega’ Technology Effects from WLTP

Technology Market Effect Reason

Electrified Technology

Stop Start All Negative Smaller Idle Ratio

Mild Hybrid All Positive More acc. events during medium speed phase

Full Hybrid All Positive More acc. events during high speed phase, use to avoid WOT issues

Mechanical Technology



GDI-T EU, CHN & JPN

Positive Pumping loss reduction at WOT and torque fill at low speed

GDI All Positive Requires more advanced injection event timing

DEAC/Stop Start @ Coast All Positive Gradual Acc and Dec at higher speed = higher coast ratio

Transmission Technology

A8+ All Positive Wider ratio coverage requirement due to high and Ex.high phase

DCT EU, CHN Positive Fast torque build-up from low speed requirement

MT EU, CHN Positive Wider ratio coverage requirement due to high and Ex.high phase

Summary of Potential ‘Other’ Technology Effects

Technology Market Effect Reason

Emissions Control Technology

GPF (Gasoline Particulate Filter) EU, CHN & JPN Positive Expected increases in GDI-T engines at high load Particulate number (PN) management required

Catalyst Pre-Heating JPN & U.S Positive Lower engine loads at cold start

Hydrocarbon Traps JPN & U.S Positive Lower engine loads at cold start



Integrated Manifolds All Positive Lower engine loads at cold start & potential to avoid exhaust gas cooling/ high load enrichment

Others

Low Friction Advances EU, CHN & JPN Positive Regenerative braking and high ratio CVT promoted

E-Clutch All Positive Regenerative braking and coast shut-down promoted

High Efficiency Alternator EU, CHN & JPN Positive Regenerative braking promoted

High Power Density Battery/Capacitor EU, CHN & JPN Positive Regenerative braking promoted

The Big Question - Effect on CO2 Emissions� Should be we surprised

that CO2 is seemingly only marginally affected by WLTC adoption? We want to see WLTC showing higher CO2 right?

� There is a correlation between average speed and CO2 emissions: The ‘U-Curve’. WLTC will show



Source: Green Scoring Workshop –30.04.2013 – Status of the WLTP - Heinz Steven

‘U-Curve’. WLTC will show lower relative CO2 as its average speed is closer to the ‘sweet spot’ than NEDC and JC08

� Idle ratio is very important to remember. A large idle ratio hurts CO2performance . WLTC has the lowest idle ratio

� Don’t forget the procedure! Evidence suggests that changes here will increase CO2under WLTC













� Summary

Powertrain Forecasting EffectsObserving the S -Curve ‘Rule’



� All IHS Automotive long-term ‘baseline’ Powertrain forecasts (based on incumbent test cycles and procedures) offer an S-Curve phase and trajectory. However, the current S-Curve per technology, per region can be ‘reasonably’ manipulated under a new Scenario, whilst still observing the S-Curve rule. This provides us with additional growth ‘headroom’ in which to forecast

� To observe the S-Curve rule is to ensure that however strongly a technology could be incentivized/dis-incentivised through WLTP adoption, a realisitc growth trajectory and phase allocation should be observed. It must remain an S-Curve.

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2012 JC082025 JC082025 S-Curve MAX2025 WLTP

� Full-Hybrid growth potential = 4.2pp = + 0.31M units in

Powertrain Forecasting Effects - JapanST: StartIP: ImproveSB: StabilizeDY: DyingRS: Re-Start

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(Mech. Tech) (Transmission)(Elec. Tech)

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� GDI-T growth potential = 4.5pp = + 0.33Munits in 2025 @ $600* (est) = +$200M to value chain

� A8+ growth potential = 3.8pp = + 0.28 units in 2025 @ $850* (est) = +$238M to value chain

*On cost compared to 2.0L 4cyl MFI Gasoline w/5MT. IHS Studies

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2012 NEDC2025 NEDC2025 S CURVE MAX2025 WLTP

Powertrain Forecasting Effects - EuropeST: StartIP: ImproveSB: StabilizeDY: DyingRS: Re-Start

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� Full-Hybrid growth potential = 3.4pp = + 0.8M units in



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� GDI-T growth potential = 6.5pp = + 1.5M units in 2025 @ $600* (est) = +$900M to value chain

� A8+ growth potential = 4.8pp = + 1.1M units in 2025 @ $850* (est) = +$1Bn to value chain


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2012 NEDC2025 NEDC2025 S CURVE MAX2025 WLTP

Powertrain Forecasting Effects - ChinaST: StartIP: ImproveSB: StabilizeDY: DyingRS: Re-Start

IPDY � Full-Hybrid growth potential

= 4.8pp = +1.6M units in



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� DEAC growth potential = 2pp = +0.7M units in 2025 @ $150* (est) = +$105M to value chain

� CVT growth potential = 2.3pp = +0.8M units in 2025 @ $900* (est) = +$720M to value chain


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2012 FTP75/US062025 FTP75/US062025 S CURVE MAX2025 WLTP

Powertrain Forecasting Effects – North AmericaST: StartIP: ImproveSB: StabilizeDY: DyingRS: Re-Start

IPSB

� Full-Hybrid growth potential = 5.1pp =



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potential = 5.1pp = +0.9M units in 2025 @ $1,600* (est) = +$1.4Bn to value chain

� DEAC growth potential = 9pp = +1.6M units in 2025 @ $150* (est) = +$240M to value chain

� A8+ growth potential = 10.5pp = +1.9M units in 2025 @ $850* (est) = +$1.6Bn to value chain














� Summary

� The WLTC Cycle development phase is now complete and validated. Work still remains on how to account for low powered vehicles (LVP’s) that that cannot follow the trace within the tolerances

� There are substantially different engine performance requirements in WLTC. There is no question that the demand on the Powertrain (operating range and emission controls) will increase with WLTC. This will be challenging

� But with every challenge, comes opportunity. Key potential ‘Mega’ technology growth

Summary



� But with every challenge, comes opportunity. Key potential ‘Mega’ technology growth areas across the major markets include Hybrid (mild, full), GDI+T, GDI, DEAC, Advanced Stop/Start (@coast), A8+ and DCT’s

� Other technologies potentially promoted through a switch to WLTC include GPF’s, Catalyst pre-heating, Integrated cylinder heads, friction reduction, E-clutch and Super Capacitors

� Each country will see ‘opportunity variance’. It is becoming clear that the WLTC switch could have the strongest effect in Europe and China, followed by Japan and then the U.S – the same order as probable WLTP adoption

� Whilst CO2 delta seems marginal, we must not forget the new procedure!

Thank you for participating!

Andrew Fulbrook


Andrew Fulbrook

Director, Global Powertrain Forecasting, IHS Automotive

IHS Automotive Conference

12 September 2013 | Frankfurt

Documents

WLTP - Long Term Powertrain Planning Potential Effects on