Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Who’s winning the Elections on Facebook:Key U.S. Senatorial and Congressional Races –
Wisconsin
www.ElectionArena.com
September 13, 2010
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Russ Feingold
Ron Johnson
Dave West-lake
Wisconsin
U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate
NY Times Toss Up
538 Model 64% chance Democratic win
Facebook Supporters
70% Democrats out of Total Direct Supporters for Race on
79% out of Total Direct Republican Supporters for
Race on Facebook
Number of Supporters on Facebook
Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010
- Seems like Ron Johnson will win the GOP primaries - Russ Feingold is poised to win the Elections
Predictions:
Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Joe Reasbeck
Julie Lassa
Sean P. Duffy
Daniel E. Mielke
Wisconsin 7 CD
U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate
NY Times Toss Up
538 Model 83% chance Republican win
Facebook Supporters
88% Republicans out of Total Direct Supporters for Race on
99% of Total Democratic Supporters for race on Facebook
98% of Total Republican Supporters for race on Facebook
Number of Supporters on Facebook
Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010
- Seems like Sean Duffy and Julie Lassa will win the GOP and Democratic primaries - Sean Duffy is poised to win the Elections
Predictions:
Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Steve Kagen
Roger Roth
Reid Ribble
Terri McCormick
Wisconsin 8 CD
U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate
NY Times Leaning Democratic
538 Model 56% chance Republican win
Facebook Supporters
71% Republicans out of Total Direct Supporters for Race on
Number of Supporters on Facebook
Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010
- Close call between Roger Roth and Reid Ribble on the GOP primaries - Close call on the General Elections as well, although stronger GOP presence overall
Predictions:
Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission
44% of Total Republican Supporters for race on Facebook
41% of Total Republican Supporters for race on Facebook
Background – Facebook and Elections
– In Jan 2010, Scott Brown won against Martha Coakley in the Special Elections for the Massachusetts U.S. Senate seat vacated by the passing of U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy
– At the time of the elections, Brown had close to 100K supporters on his Facebook page, compared to around 16K on Coakley’s page
– Heralded as a brilliant social media campaign, it prompted more and more candidates to invest in social media towards the Mid Term Elections
8 weeks before the elections, we checked: - Who is doing better on Facebook?- Can Facebook pages predict the election results? - How does it compare to the NY Times Race Ratings, and to 538’s Model?
- 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
Democrats
Republicans
Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010
Number of Supporters on Facebook
McCain Supporters
U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook
Overall, U.S. Senate Republican Candidates are doing much better than Democrats on Facebook
- Even if we exclude McCain as an outlier (with 668K Supporters), Republicans are still 75% of Total Direct Supporters for Major Party U.S. Senate Races on Facebook (3 times as many Republican supporters as there are Democratic ones)
Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Democrats
Republicans
Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010* Included only the “99 Seats in Play” according to the NY Times website
Number of Supporters on Facebook
U.S. Congressional Elections - Supporters on Facebook
- Republicans hold 63% of Total Direct Supporters for Major Party U.S. Congressional Races on Facebook*
Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission
Overall, U.S. Congressional Republican Candidates are also doing better than Democrats on Facebook
About www.ElectionArena.com
ElectionArena informs voters about the elections relevant to them and connects them with those running for political office. By inserting their zip code on ElectionArena.com, voters can check all ongoing election campaigns at the local, state and federal level, together with the relevant candidate and campaign news from across the web.
Each election has its own profile, showing voters who the candidates are and what they stand for, so voters can compare between them. ElectionArena also contains a profile for each candidate, featuring their social media activity feeds, blogs, tweets and posts, together with all the feedback they received from their supporters and followers across the various social networks.
This means that voters can join the discussion on ElectionArena, even if they don't ‘like’ or ‘follow’ a specific candidate on a social network. They can ask questions, voice their opinions, receive updates and support the candidate they believe in.
All candidate profiles are managed by the candidates themselves, ensuring that ElectionArena remains fair and neutral .
By creating this Arena, ElectionArena hopes to deliver on its vision: making the democratic process better, for everyone .
