Winter Storm Feb 25/26, 2010

Dave OndrejikNational Weather Service

State College, PA

Current Watches

Why does the Watch area look odd?That is due to the amount of moisture available with this storm

About the system• A very complex low pressure system.• Forecast track still holds some uncertainty

– Therefore, snowfall forecasts could change from what will be shown later in presentation.

– Proximity to east coast and potential for system to move WESTWARD hold keys to track and snowfall amounts.

• Winds will be strong towards the end of the storm. – Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are possible, slightly higher along

the mountain tops. • Long duration storm…after main snow ends, we still

expect snow to fall in parts of western PA into Friday night/Saturday .

Current weather map

Forecast map for Wed evening

Forecast map for Thursday morning

Forecast map for Thu night

Beginning time for snowfall. Snow should start overnight tonight.

Below are snow totals for rush hour Thu morning.

Snowfall forecast from 7am Wed-7am Fri (48 hrs)Note: Snow will not begin to fall until late tonight/early Thu am.

Snowfall Forecast for entire event.

Ice on Lake ErieNote: Open water in western portion of lake will “enhance” snowfall amounts.

Open water – addingmoisture to atmosphere,thus higher amounts of snoware forecast in northwest PAand Laurel Highlands

City of Erieand Presque Isle

Wind Gust forecast

• Winds will be gusty especially in the higher terrain.– Strongest winds will occur from 4-6 pm Thursday

night and continue until about noon on Friday.

• Remember wind gusts for 40-45 mph are possible.

• Blowing and drifting snow is quite likely.

Wind Gust Forecast4 pm Thu 7 pm Thu

10 pm Thu 1 am Fri

Wind Gust Forecast4 am Fri 10 am Fri

1 pm Fri 4 pm Fri

Snow storm – Feb 25-26, 2010(Summary)

• Heavy snow is expected over most of PA.– Exception is south-central PA where less moisture

is available.• Strong winds are expected with this storm

– Blowing and drifting snow is possible.– Heavy and wet snow, combined with strong winds

could cause trees and power lines to come down.• Although the main snow will fall between Thu

afternoon and early Friday…light and persistent snow will continue in parts of PA into Saturday.