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NCAR
Winter Road Maintenance Decision SupportSystem (MDSS) Prototype Development
Presented by
Bill Mahoney
National Center for Atmospheric Research
MDSS Objective
To utilize state-of-the-art atmospheric scienceand engineering approaches to address andimprove theperformanceof the roadmaintenancepractitioner.
Current Capabilities and Practice
The highway maintenance managers currently usenewspapers, Weather Channel, USA Today, NWS, andprivate meteorologists to make decisions.
Road weather informationsystems are not integratedwith road managementsystems. The winter roadmaintenance decisionprocess is generallyreactive in nature.
MDSS Goals
• Capitalize on existing road weather data sources.
• Augment data sources wherethey are weak.
• Fuse data to make anintegrated andunderstandable presentationof road conditions.
• Provide diagnostic and prognostic information.
MDSS Goals (continued)
• Provide display capability for the conditionof the roadway.
• Develop a decision support tool that providesrecommendations on road maintenancecourses of action together with anticipatedconsequences of action or inaction.
• Provide all the above on a single platform.
Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Project
MITLincoln Lab
Bob Hallowell
Federal Highways Administration (FHWA)Office of Transportation Operation (HOTO)
Paul PisanoRudy Persaud
Mitretek Systems
Gary Nelson
Cold Regions Research & Engineering Lab (CRREL)MDSS Programmatic Lead Lab
George Blaisdell (Project Mgr.)
National Centerfor Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
MDSS Technical Lead Lab
Bill Mahoney (Project Mgr.)Rich Wagoner (Oversight)
Multiple Contracts
Single Contract
NOAANational Severe
Storms Lab
John Cortinas
NOAAForecast Systems
Lab
Paul Schultz
NOAAEnvironmentalTechnologies
Lab
Dan Wolfe
Project Schedule
FY2000: Requirements AnalysisTechnology Review by Labs
FY2001: Conceptual Prototype Development(storyboard concepts & user feedback)
FY2002: Functional Prototype DevelopmentDemonstrationDocumentationTechnology Release
MDSS Project Constraints
• Development period: 2-Years• Development resources: $1.8M• System complexity: Multiple Labs
• Maturity of core components• Operational data availability and integration• Disparity in user requirements• Complicated validation process• Complicated technology transfer process
MDSS Schedule
Rapid Prototypingand Testing
Testing, Advice,Direction
FY 00 Award(Prototype)Award= $900,000
9/30/00 9/30/01 9/30/02 9/30/03FY01 FY02 FY03
DevelopmentPlan:Award + 30 days
ConceptualPrototype
Various Developmentand Operational Test Options
VAMSDOTs
CommercialDeployment
9/30/04
Further Releases?
Ongoing Stakeholder Participation/Operation
Release 1
MDSS Functional PrototypeComponents
MDSS Prototype Components
WeatherData
AdvancedWeather
Capabilities DecisionSupport
Logic
Display
DOT Operations Data
RoadCondition
Module
External SystemInterface
MDSS Prototype Focus Areas
Weather Component Focus :
• Event start and stop times• Surface temperature• Precipitation type• Precipitation rate• Precipitation accumulation• Conditional probabilities• Surface wind speed• Surface wind direction• Surface visibility
MDSS Prototype Focus Areas
Road Component Focus:
• Pavement temperature and trends• Pavement chemical concentration• Road mobility index• Pavement contamination(liquid, snow, ice, etc.)
MDSS Prototype Focus Areas
Decision Support System Component Focus:
• Monitor weather & road conditions• Monitor probability & intensity of weather threat• Treatment options & timing• Crew scheduling & managing crew shifts• Dispatch crews to treat roadway• Post event clean up
Translation of Environmental Data to RoadCondition Information
Environmental Data
Road condition information providedat user configurable locations along the road.
Road condition algorithmsconvert environmentaldata at road points
MDSS Functional Prototype Components
Road Weather Forecast System - NCAR
Precipitation Type - NSSL
Rules of Practice Module – CRREL & LL
Maintenance Decision Support System
Ensemble ForecastingFSL
Mesoscale Weather ModelsFSL/NSSL
Eight primary components
Road Chemical Concentration - CRREL
Road Mobility Index - CRREL
Road Surface Temperature - CRREL
Engineering Approach for MDSS
Eta ModelMRF ModelAVN ModelNGM MOSSatelliteMETARSRadar MosaicSYNOPLightning
DICAST Processor Wx Output:
Wind SpeedWind DirectionRHAir TempPrecip RatePrecip TypeLightningRadar MosaicVisibilityDew PointPrecip AccumCloud CoverInsolationNWS Advisories
NWS AdvisoriesOthers TBD
Road Condition Module:
Road FrictionRoad TemperatureSnow Drift
DSS Processor
Display
Demonstration
Data Interface to External Systems
Pass through Data
DOT “Wx” Data:
Video ImagesESS (Wx stations)
DOT Ops Data:
StaffEquipmentTreatment StocksTraffic DensityTraffic SpeedPavement Characteristics
Others TBD
DataIngest
Forecast Module A
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Forecast Module D
Forecast Module N
.
.
.
Integrator
PostProcessing
ForecastProduct
Standard Wx Data
Ensemble Forecasts
Rules of PracticeModule
“NOAA”Weather Data
DOT Wx Data
DOTOperations
Data
Road ConditionModule
Rules of Practice
Decision Support
BrowserDisplay
Internet - Intranet
.
.
.
DataIngest
Forecast Module A
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Forecast Module D
Forecast Module N
ForecastIntegrator
PostProcessor
ForecastProduct
WeatherParameter
Output
Point & TimeSpecificOutput
Road Weather Forecast System
Functional Prototype - Cycles
The functional prototype will operate in threeprimary modes:
1) Provide results with no maintenance actions.
2) Provide results based on automatedmaintenance recommendations (rules ofpractice).
3) Allow user to modify maintenancerecommendations.
MDSS Functional PrototypeSystem Flow
RWFS[Point/Beat Specific]
Road TempSnow Depth
ChemicalConcentration
Snow Depth&
Chemicals
ChemicalApplication
Net RoadMobility
Rules ofPractice
Accept?Yes
No
edit
Plow
New RoadState
MDSS Component Overview
National Center for Atmospheric ResearchResearch Application Program
NCAR/RAP
Road Weather Forecast System
Sample Environmental Prediction Sites
All observationalweather data arenecessary to improveforecasts!
The system will bedesigned utilize alldata availableincluding: DOT, NWS,DoD, air quality, andhydrology networks.
Environmental prediction parameters will begenerated along the road.
The Road WeatherForecast Systemwill generate pointspecific forecastsof environmentalparameters alongroad corridors.
Example: Precipitation Type
MDSS
Snow depthAccumulation
MDSS
Single PointTime Series
Mesoscale Modeling&
EnsembleForecast System
NOAAForecast Systems Laboratory
&National Severe Storms Laboratory
Forecast Systems LaboratoryEnsemble Forecasting
Models:
EtaMM5RAMS
Initialization:
AVNEtaRUC
9-MemberOutput
RoadWeatherForecastSystem
Cold Regions Research and EnvironmentalLaboratory
CRREL
CRREL - Salt Concentration Model
Illustrates thesensitivity of saltconcentration withtime during apredicted weatherevent for multipletreatment options.
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
TIME, HOURS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
SA
LTC
ON
CE
NT
RA
TIO
N,P
ER
CE
NT
BY
WE
IGH
T
0
10
20
30
40
PA
VE
ME
NT
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E,D
EG
RE
EF
AH
RE
NH
EIT
RainSnowOne time 400 lb/lane mi100 lb/lane mi @ 3 hrs250 lb/lane mi @ 6 hrs400 lb/ln mi and 100 @ 3hrs
Fully Saturated Solution
Ice-SolutionPhase Line
Pavement Temperature
MidnightWednesday
MidnightTuesday
MidnightThursday
Two-Day Friction Coefficient HistoryWith and Without Treatment
Prediction Point #3F
rict
ion
Co
effi
cien
t
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
Time Since Awareness (hrs)
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
RecommendedMaintenance Efforts
Level of Service 1
CRREL
No Treatment
3:30 am
3:30 am
3:30 am
3:30 am 3:15 am
3:15 am
B
C
A
4:00 am
4:00 am
RoundRoad
15INTERSTATE
17
17
15INTERSTATE
!
CrewTrucksMaterial StocksTruck Routes
StandardCustom
Road StatusLogistics Matrix
!!
Roads Overlays Treatments TimeLine Resources
Game Plan
Sample: Route Specific Guidance
Treat. Start TimeCall @ Route Segment Driver Truck ID Dress & Load Treat. Rate/TLM
9:00 pm Monday midnight Mon/Tue 3 :15 am TuesdayA 2,3,4 Sam Salter Mack X NaCl, pw-8g. CaCl 400 lbs
Notes: Drive reverse route
9:00 pm Monday 1:00 am Tuesday 3:15 am TuesdayC 8,9,10 Polly Plowgirl Mack Z Sand (ballast) Plow only
9:00 pm Monday 1:30 am Tuesday 3:30 am TuesdayB 6,7 Gary Grippy Mack Y Seg. 7: Sand 1200 lbs
Notes: Ford Seg. 6: NaCl 400 lbs
BASED ON RECOMMENDED TREATMENTS
Material Stocks
11 tons to be usedinitial treatment
5 tons to be usedinitial treatment
30 gallons to be usedinitial treatment
10 tons
40 tons
250 gallons
120 tons
Engine blown
NaCl
CaCl
CaCl liquid
Abrasives
RoundRoad
15
17
17
15
Roads Overlays Treatments TimeLine Resources
Game Plan – Initial
What are the special features of the MDSS?
Special Features of the MDSS
• Takes advantage of standard & road weather sensor datavia intelligent data integration.
• Utilizes an automated, high resolution forecast systemwith advanced data fusion techniques.
• Merges environmental & operational data within the DSS.
• Provides decision guidance in decision space andprovides recommended courses of action and allowsusers to evaluate other courses of action.
MDSS Technology Applications
Winter Maintenance
Emergency Management
Traffic Management
Hurricane Evacuation
Weed SprayingSweeping Operations
Controlled Burns
Public Notification
Pavement Marking
Paving Operations
Warning Preparation
MDSS CoreTechnology
Summary
The MDSS Project is an ambitious project that posesseveral challenges and risks.
Road weather initiatives requirenew and augmented researchand development activities andthe application of new techniques.
The meteorological communitymust also become smarter on theneeds of the road maintenancemanager as they pertain toweather related decision making.