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Winter Range Studies of the Western Arctic
Caribou Herd
Kyle Joly
National Park Service
Wildlife Biologist, Gates of the Arctic National Park & Preserve
Caribou Monitoring Lead, Arctic Network Inventory & Monitoring Program
Funding
NPS – Gates, ARCN
BLM – Central Yukon
FWS – Selawik NWR
Acknowledgements Paul Duffy and Scott Rupp
Photo: R. Jandt
Background
• Historic Debates • Fire destroys lichens
• Caribou can just find new range
• Centered on boreal forests
• Preliminary Alaska Work • Nelchina Caribou Herd
• Western Arctic Herd
• Current Efforts
WAH
Background
Information
• Wide Ranging
• ~ 40 Villages
• 15,000 Harvested Annually
• ~ 97 % Subsistence Use
• 348,000 (in 2009)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
WAH Herd Size
Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots
• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations
• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar
• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
All models are wrong,
but some are useful. -George Box
Reality is just a single replicate. - Tony Starfield
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Goals
Quantify effects of climate change scenarios on:
• Fire regime of northwest Alaska
• Extent of caribou winter range
• Extent of quality moose habitat
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSytem Code)
• State-transition type vegetation succession model
• Deciduous a successional state of spruce
• Tundra stays tundra after disturbance (fire)
• Focuses on system interactions and feedbacks
• 1 km2 pixels, 1 year time steps
• Pixels randomly “ignited”
• Fire “spread” a function of climate and vegetation state
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Individual
Pixel
Flammability
Probability
of
Burning
Vegetation Type
Stand Age Climate
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time Since Fire (Years)
Fla
mm
ab
ilit
y
Boreal
Tundra
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
SNAP
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Empirical
Simulated
Are
a B
urn
ed (
km
2)
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Empirical
Rep_44
• A
rea
Burn
ed (
km
2)
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Cum
ula
tive
Are
a B
urn
ed (
km
2)
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Max. Fire Size (km2)
Fre
quen
cy
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
200 250 300 350 400 450
Tundra Area Burned (km2)
Fre
quen
cy
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a of
Tundra
Burn
ed (
km
2)
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
2010 Fire Season
• 37 fires in Noatak Preserve (most ever)
• 3 Re-burns just in Noatak
• # 3 all-time fire year in northwest area Parks
• Barrow Aug temps 2 C (4 F) above average
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
260000
280000
300000
320000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a (k
m2)
Caribou Winter Range
> 50 yrs old
ENTIRE Study Area
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
30000
40000
50000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a (k
m2)
Caribou Winter Range
> 50 yrs old
CORE
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Potential Impacts
Of Less Winter Range
• Range shifts
• Increased competition
• Increased dispersal
• Reduced nutritional condition
• Reduced reproductive output
• Smaller group and herd sizes
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
1000
3000
5000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a (k
m2)
Moose Habitat
10-30 yrs old
CORE
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Part 3: Habitat selection in relation to lichens, wildfires, grazing and landscape
Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots
• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations
• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar
• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them
• Simulations forecast more fires
• Less quality caribou winter range
• Conservative forecasts
• Climate-induced impacts increase moose habitat
Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots
• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations
• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar
• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them
• Simulations forecast more fires
• Less quality caribou winter range
• Conservative forecasts
• Climate-induced impacts increase moose habitat
• Forage, fire and predation part of winter range story
• Winter range is just one piece of the puzzle
Preliminary Fire Management Plan
Prior to Fire Plan
• TEK and AFS input required
• Consider more than caribou
Preliminary Fire Management Plan
• Maintain 296-year fire cycle
• 3-Year Moving Average of Area Burned
• Stand Age ~ Lichen abundance
• Protect large areas > 30 years old
• Resource Advisor Galena Zone Fires
Questions ?