Upload
jon-ralston
View
215
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
1/21
Center for
Western Priorities!"#$%$ '()*+, -$.%/ '01'2013 45
'60'-1 7802819:17
;6!1 ?
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
2/21
Methodology
2
!
0"/@A.%".B/ C"D" D$.%AE*F/"*",B"% GDAE $ #AB"D H*" $.%
*$.I($I"JAGJ,KA+," +.B"D#+"C+.I
C$/ $#$+*$)*" BA 7@$.+/KJ/@"$L+.I
#AB"D/M
! N+OFJBCA @"D,".B PQ==R %(" BA DA(.%+.IM
! " # ! $ % ' ( ) ' * + , ) - . ( / " - , % / 0 1 1
, % $ % ! + . ( % ' ( , % # 2 ' % 3 ) . 4 $ ' 5 % $ 6
2 . , % # ) ' ( ( % 2 7 / 7 8 % , 3 % % (
9 7 6 : ; 9 7 6 < = : 1 > ?
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
3/21
Key Findings
3
!
!"#$%$ #AB"D/ )"*+"#" @()*+, *$.%/ $D" +E@ADB$.B BA !"#$%$[/ ",A.AEF $.% $D"$. +E@ADB$.B @$DB AG CK$B E$L"/ !"#$%$ $ IAA% @*$," BA *+#"M
! N"C )"*+"#" !"#$%$ K$/ BAA E(,K @()*+, *$.%M
! \$.F !"#$%$./ $D" GD"](".B #+/+BAD/ BA BK" /B$B"[/ A@". /@$,"/^ C+BK ."$D*F _ +.
>= /B$`.I BK"F K$% #+/+B"% @()*+, *$.%/ +. !"#$%$ $B *"$/B A.," +. BK" @$/B F"$DM
! 8K"D" +/ )DA$% )+@$D`/$. /(@@ADB GAD %"/+I.$`.I BK" 9A*% 4(a" $D"$ $/ $ .$`A.$*
EA.(E".BM
! bK+*" E$.F #AB"D/ $D" $C$D" AG BK" 4(.%F %+/@(B"^ ."$D*F K$*G AG #AB"D/ %+/$ID""
C+BK K+/ $@@DA$,K C+BK A.*F $ BK+D% $ID""+.I C+BK K+EM! !"#$%$./ #$*(" ,A**$)AD$`A. A#"D ,A.GDA.B$`A. $.% /KF $C$F GDAE
,$.%+%$B"/ /(@@AD`#" AG 4(.%FM
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
4/21
Key Findings
4
! c$.%+%$B"/ CADL+.I BA dC+. BK" C"/Be +. !"#$%$ /KA(*% GA,(/ A. BK" +E@ADB$.,"
AG @DAB",`.I @()*+, *$.% $.% +E@DA#+.I $,,"// CK+*" /BD"//+.I @()*+, *$.%[/ %+D",B
*+.L BA !"#$%$[/ ",A.AEFM
! 'DA@A/$*/ BA "f@$.% EABAD #"K+,*" (/"^ AD BA /"** *$.%/ BA D"%(," BK" %"H,+B^
B(D. Ag E$.F !"#$%$ #AB"D/M
! 7(@@ADB GAD D"."C$)*" "."DIF %"#"*A@E".B +/ /BDA.I^ @$D`,(*$D*F "f@$.%+.I /A*$D
%"#"*A@E".BM
! 8+,L"B /@*+a"D/ ID$#+B$B" BAC$D% $ )$*$.,"% $.% ,A**$)AD$`#" $@@DA$,K A. @()*+,
*$.% E$.$I"E".BM
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
5/21
! 1 h 2 3 2 - : h : ! 9
Public lands are seen as important to Nevada’s economyand quality of life
5
The desert landscapes,mountains and valleys,
recreation areas, and other
outdoor spaces that make upour public lands are an
important part of what makesNevada a good place to live
U=R!"#$%&'( *++
_?R2ID""
Our deserts, mountains, valleys, recreation areas and
other outdoor spaces that
make up our public lands arean important part of Nevada’s
economy
?_R!"#$%&'( *++
_>R2ID""
QRU=R
Nevada’s outdoor tourism and
recreation industry
,-. /%0-.
>?RYTR
Nevada’s gaming industry
,-. /%0-.
:.%(/BD+"/ D"*$B"% BABA(D+/E $D" @A@(*$D^
C+BK A(B%AAD BA(D+/E
/*+IKB*F EAD" /A BK$.
I$E+.IM
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
6/21
2 b 2 0 1 ! 1 7 7 i N ' 6 4 - : c - 2 ! 3 7
Nevadans are frequent visitors of public lands andbelieve many public lands sites are important parts of
the state’s economy and heritage
6
i#"D BK" @$/B F"$D^ KAC E$.F `E"/ %A FA( BK+.L FA(
K$#" #+/+B"% @()*+, *$.%/ /(,K $/ .$`A.$* D",D"$`A.
$D"$/^ @$DL/^ .$`A.$* GAD"/B/^ .$`A.$* EA.(E".B/^
.$`A.$* C+*%*+G" D"G(I"/^ AD ABK"D @()*+, *$.% +. !"#$%$j
@AB *" '+-1" $%2+
>>B3+.+#45-%6" #+7+78+#
C?B
>@B
\AD" BK$. Q `E"/
\AD" BK$.
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
7/21
' 6 4 - : c - 2 ! 3 7 : 7 7 6 1 7
Few believe there is too much public land in Nevada
7
2ID""
3+/$ID""
NV VOTERS
DE M IN D GO P
X>
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
8/21
Q>
QY
QX
TQ
' 6 4 - : c - 2 ! 3 7 : 7 7 6 1 7
Designating Gold Butte as a national monument to protectthe land is a proposal voters agree on across parties
8
)DEF GHIF JKDJDLFM MFLNOPHQPO H PHQDPHR EDPSEFPT NP *DRM 8SUF= RDVHTFM NPKSKHR )DSTGFKP (FIHMH= TD JKDTFVT W>
<
@
::
0>
0@
0C
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
9/21
' 6 4 - : c - 2 ! 3 7 ' 0 i ' i 7 2 - 7
A strong public lands platform should touch uponeconomic impact, access and preservation
9
7@",+GF+.I CKAE BK" $,,"// +/ GAD CADL/ )"a"D BK$. $ )DA$% $,,"// @DA@A/$*M
Would the following proposals regarding public
lands that a candidate may offer make you more
or less likely to support that candidate?
NEVADA VOTERSShowing More Likely / Less Likely
DEM IND GOP
SPLIT B: Protect access to outdoor spaces for camping,
hiking, hunting, fishing, and other outdoor recreation@A W Q 0C W ? @: W >>
SPLIT B: Help create outdoor tourism jobs @C W < 0C W Q @1 W Q
SPLIT A: Help promote and expand our outdoor
tourism economy@: W ? 00 W U 0@ W X
Increase protection of wildlife @W W Q 0? W ? ?@ W >Y
SPLIT A: Promote outdoor tourism to help rural
economic development@> W T 0W W U ?@ W U
SPLIT A: Protect access to outdoor spaces 0A W X ?C W T 0> W >=
SPLIT B: Diversify our tourism economy beyond Las
Vegas00 W Y = <
?
_
><
Top-Tier Public Lands Proposals
\AD" -+L"*F -"// -+L"*F
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
10/21
' 6 4 - : c - 2 ! 3 7 ' 0 i ' i 7 2 - 7
Voters support a combination of renewable and traditionalenergy development on public lands over a ban
10
Would the following proposals regarding public
lands that a candidate may offer make you more
or less likely to support that candidate?
NEVADA VOTERSShowing More Likely / Less Likely
DEM IND GOP
Encourage the development of solar, geothermaland wind energy projects on public lands
@W W ? 0: W >Q ?C W >U
Continue mining and oil and gas drilling on publiclands, but with additional environmental
protections in place
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
11/21
' 6 4 - : c - 2 ! 3 7 ' 0 i ' i 7 2 - 7
Proposals on increased motorized vehicle use,additional private development and selling public land
turn off many voters
11
Would the following proposals regarding public
lands that a candidate may offer make you more
or less likely to support that candidate?
NEVADA VOTERSShowing More Likely / Less Likely
DEM IND GOP
Open up more wilderness areas to motorized
vehicle useXY W WA
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
12/21
' 6 4 - : c - 2 ! 3 7 ' 0 : i 0 : 8 : 1 7
Voters primarily see public lands as a place to expandrenewable energy and build outdoor recreation opportunities
12
Which of the following is the best use of Nevada’s public landsto help the state’s economy?
DEM IND GOP
:.,D"$/+.I BK" .(E)"D AG /A*$D^
C+.% $.% I"ABK"DE$* "."DIF
%"#"*A@E".B/
4(+*%+.I A(B%AAD D",D"$`A.
A@@ADB(.+`"/ BA +.,D"$/"
BA(D+/E
U
CW
:?
A
A
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
13/21
DE M 0> C< >? >T Q X >
IN D ?A C0 >U >< U >> Q
GO P C< W1 :A
T=
>Q
>> _T
7A*$D b+.% !$B(D$* 9$/ 9"ABK"DE$* i+* !(,*"$D cA$*
What energy source or sources should we prioritize in theAmerican West over the next ten years?
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
14/21
1 ! 1 0 9 5 : 7 7 6 1 7
Solar companies are generally well-liked; the utilitiescommission, oil and coal companies are less liked
14
T=
>Q
>Y
><
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
15/21
1 ! 1 0 9 5 W \ : ! : ! 9 : 7 7 6 1 7
On energy proposals, there is consensus onrenewables, mining royalties, and banning nuclear
waste at Yucca
15
Would the following positions a candidate might
take make you more or less likely to support that
candidate?
NEVADA VOTERSShowing More Likely / Less Likely
DEM IND GOP
:.#"/B +. BK" %"#"*A@E".B AG D"."C$)*" "."DIF /A(D,"/
*+L" C+.%^ /A*$D $.% I"ABK"DE$* @X ?> W >T
0"+./B$B" @A*+,+"/ BK$B $**AC !"#$%$ D"/+%".B/ BA +./B$**
/A*$D @$."*/ $.% $**AC $.F "f,"// "."DIF BA )" /A*% BA BK"
"*",BD+, (`*+BF ,AE@$.F 0W W _ 0> W >> 01 W >>
)!$', 8^ 0"](+D" E+.+.I ,AE@$.+"/ BA @$F B$f@$F"D/ $
DAF$*BF GAD "fBD$,`.I E+."D$*/ A. @()*+, *$.%/^ *+L" A+* $.%
I$/ ,AE@$.+"/ @$F GAD %D+**+.I A. @()*+, *$.%/ 0? W ? ?1 W U Y
)!$', 7^ 0"](+D" E+.+.I ,AE@$.+"/ BA @$F B$f@$F"D/ $
DAF$*BF GAD "fBD$,`.I E+."D$*/ A. @()*+, *$.%/ ?<
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
16/21
\ 1 7 7 2 9 : ! 9
Ticket splitters gravitate towards a balanced approachfrom a candidate over party affiliation
16
8K" 0"@()*+,$. )$/" IDAC/ C+BKA(B /(@@ADB GAD 4(.%FM
Now I am going to read you a couple of descriptions of potential political
candidates. Between the following two candidates, which would you be more
inclined to vote for?
NV VO TE RS
MOSTLY VO TE DE M
TICKETSPLITTERS
MOSTLY VO TE GO P
A Democratic candidate who believes that the deserts and mountains help make Nevada
special, and are an important part of the state’s tourism economy; who believes recreation
and renewable energy should be priorities on our pubic lands; and who believes that
through collaboration with local communities, we can find balance in the management of
our pubic lands.
QQ _< QT >X
A Republican candidate who believes states should be able to manage their own public
lands, not federal bureaucrats; who supports selling some public lands to close the budget
deficit; who stands alongside Cliven Bundy and his family; who opposes new federal
monuments and instead prioritizes the development of public lands to help grow our
economy.
A Republican candidate who believes that the deserts and mountains help make Nevada
special, and are an important part of the state’s tourism economy; who believes recreation
and renewable energy should be priorities on our pubic lands; and who believes that
through collaboration with local communities, we can find balance in the management of
our pubic lands.
X_ T T< YQ
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
17/21
c - : h 1 ! 4 6 ! 3 5
Most have heard about the Bundy dispute, nearly halfdisagree with his approach while only a third agree
17
T<
<
>Q
How much have you heard about the disputebetween Cliven Bundy and the federal government
about public land use?
A great deal
Some
Not toomuch
Nothingat all
IF HEARD ABOUT THE DISPUTE: Based on what you have heard, do you agree or disagree with
Cliven Bundy and his supporters?
>U
X<
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
18/21
c - : h 1 ! 4 6 ! 3 5
Messaging on Bundy moves the wider electorate to furtherdisagree with him and his supporters, even Republicans
18
7(@@ADB"D/ AG c*+#". 4(.%F /$F BK$B K" +/ )"+.I (.G$+D*F @"D/",(B"% )F BK" G"%"D$*IA#"D.E".BM 8K"F /$F BK$B K"[/ k(/B $ *A,$* D$.,K"D /B$.%+.I (@ BA IA#"D.E".B
A#"DD"$,K A. KAC C" ,$. (/" A(D *$.%/^ $.% BK$B K" $.% BK" @"A@*" CKA I$BK"D"% A.
K+/ D$.,K BA ,A.GDA.B G"%"D$* $(BKAD+`"/ C"D" k(/`H"% BA @DAB",B +.%+#+%($* GD""%AE/
$.% A(D *A,$* b"/B"D. C$F AG *+G"M
i@@A.".B/ AG c*+#". 4(.%F /$F K" K$/ )"". ID$m+.I K+/ ,$a*" A. @()*+, *$.%^ CK+*" D"G(/+.IBA @$F ID$m+.I G""/^ CK+,K C$/ ,*"$D*F $I$+./B BK" *$CM 8K"F $*/A /$F BK$B D$BK"D BK$.
CADL+.I C+BK $(BKAD+`"/ BA ,AE" BA $ D"/A*(`A. A. *$.% (/"^ K" $.% K+/ GA**AC"D/
@DA#AL"% $ %$.I"DA(/ $DE"% ,A.GDA.B$`A. C+BK D$.I"D/^ /K"D+g/ $.% A(D $(BKAD+`"/^
*"$%+.I BA G"*A.F ,K$DI"/M
Based on what you have heard, do you agree or disagree with Cliven Bundy and his supporters?
XT XX
T?
Q>
?
'D"J\"//$I+.I 'A/BJ\"//$I+.I
Nevada Voters
3+/$ID""2ID"" 3A.[B L.AC
Republican Voters
Q_
Q<
T ><
'D"J\"//$I+.I 'A/BJ\"//$I+.I
TQ
Q>
<
'D"J\"//$I+.I 'A/BJ\"//$I+.I
Independent Voters
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
19/21
19
1#". $ HOK AG 0"@()*+,$./ $D" *"// *+L"*F BA #AB" GAD $ ,$.%+%$B" /(@@AD`.I 4(.%FM
As Nevadans, we should prioritize
collaboration on public lands issues over
conflict with the federal government
2ID"" 3+/$ID""
NV VOTERS
DE M
IN D
GO P
Y<
YT
YX
?_
>T
>>
>Q
>Q
If a candidate for office supported Cliven Bundyand his cause, would you be more or less likely
to vote for that candidate, or would it not make a
difference in your vote?
\AD"-+L"*F -"//-+L"*F
>_
XQ
>Q
>Q
XQ
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
20/21
>
0 1 c i \ \ 1 ! 3 2 8 : i ! 7
Political Cheat Sheet for Candidates
20
ISSUEREPUBLICANCANDIDATES
DEMOCRATICCANDIDATES
Nevada's public lands are an important part of what makes Nevada a good place to live. ! !
Protect access to outdoor spaces for camping, hiking, hunting, fishing, and other outdoorrecreation
! !
Help promote and expand our outdoor tourism economy ! !
Invest in the development of renewable energy sources like wind, solar and geothermal ! !
Designate the Gold Butte area as a National Monument ! !
There is too much public land in Nevada " "
Store nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain " "
Open up more wilderness areas to motorized vehicle use "
Open up public lands to more private development " "
Sell public lands to reduce the budget deficit " "
Support Cliven Bundy "
8/16/2019 Winning the West Nevada
21/21
! " # ! $ % ) , # 7 , % * ' % ) \ - . 9
_ ! " # ! $ % ) , # 7 , )
4 7 - % 8 . . 5 \ - . 9 ` ! " # ! $ % ) , # 7 , % * ' % )
0 1 W \ < C @ \ 0 @ 0 0
c n : c 2 9 i 4 i 7 8 i !b 2 7 n : ! 9 8 i ! ^ 3 M c M