Wind and the wider challenges of the Energy Transition · 6/13/2018 · Wind and the wider challenges of the Energy Transition Gert Jan Kramer Wind Days,13 June, 2018. ... 2000 2010

Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development


Wind and the wider challenges of the Energy Transition

Gert Jan Kramer

Wind Days, 13 June, 2018

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(Offshore) Wind as Today’s Reality



It takes decades for new energy technologies to mature

Figure: G.J. Kramer and M. Haigh, Nature, 462, 568 (2009)

1 trillion$ investment .

100 million$ investment .



(Offshore) Wind as a Vision of the Future

2050: An Energetic Odyssey (IABR) and Sea Wind Power Hub Doggersbank



The Climate & Energy Transitionuncertainty ahead

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Economic disruption

Environmental disruption



The Climate & Energy Transitionuncertainty ahead

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BaU investments“Paris” investments

This is the challenge!

How will we reducerisk?

A challenge at national (NL), regional (EU) and global level



The Climate & Energy Transitionuncertainty partly overcome (power sector, NL, NW-EU)

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BaU investments“Paris” investments

For the Power Sector in NL we had this transition between2008 and today

2008: new gas and coal

2018: offshore wind the new norm

But energy system uncertainty will impact the long-term growthpotential of Wind



… but we started in the 1970s

Based on G.J. Kramer and M. Haigh, No Quick Switch to Low Carbon Energy, Nature, 462, 568 (2009)

1970s to 2000 – Creating the Technologies Ca. 2000 to 2030 – Technologies to scale

Dealing with fuels and irreplaceable carbon

Post 2025 – Making the RE system work



Dutch Energy Demand in Internationaal ContextThe Future of the Dutch Industrial Portfolio is a key variable

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residential transport commercial industry & agri non-energy use

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based on IEA balances for 2015

Historic basis:Groningen Gas and Rotterdam as fossil hub

Future basis:Green energy (!?)Circularity (!?)Infrastructure (!?)



Energy Infrastructure and Energy Landscape

How much energy will the Netherlands generate locally?

Does clean energy import offer scope?

• What is the future balance between the main Dutch energy sectors? (buildings, transport, commercial … and industry)

What is the future share of electricity and fuels in end use?

• Economic questions: Energy at what price? The future of Tarriff differentiation

• Energy landscapes: how much is society willing to accommodate

• Energy infrastructure: ambitious or not? Catalysing the transiting? Or servicable to it?

Based on work done the for Dutch Knowledge and Innovation Agenda for Industry in the context of the effort supporting the Dutch Government’s “Klimaatakkoord”



Who Pays?Observations on the Dutch situation

• Total costs for electricity and its infrastructure are increasing

• An energy-only electricity market will struggle to deliver the transition to a renewables-dominated electricity system (excess renewables, storage, back-up, etc.)

• Infrastructure costs are paid by users. Producers do not share in the costs

• Additional costs for High-Voltage are paid for by both small and large users

As small consumers move to self-production, burden falls increasingly on large consumers

Industry will struggle to pay full cost (future of small/large user tariffs?)

• Changing tariff structures takes time

• Are networks a Public Good and can they be subsidized as such?

With input from Annelies Huygen (TNO, UvA)



Conclusions

The future of Wind (and Solar) is bright. These will be the backbone of the futureenergy system. To sustain and increase the pace of deployment we must urgently cometo grips with all aspects of energy system integration.


Documents

Wind and the wider challenges of the Energy Transition · 6/13/2018 · Wind and the wider challenges of the Energy Transition Gert Jan Kramer Wind Days,13 June, 2018. ... 2000 2010