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No Objection To Declassification 2007109113 : NLK-06-002-11-1-2... 101.%•1%.. I

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No Objection To Declassification 2007109113: NLK-08-002-11-1-2SAN■ TiZELY—

I E.O. 12966, SEC 3.6_

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"WeNo Objection To Declassification 2007/09113 NU<-06-002-11-1-2 5 F 4. 3o 7

reAnIV /

IdSLIORANDUSI FOR M. Amory

SUBJECT: Briefing Notes re Soviet Capabilities for Long Range Attack

1- IntercomMental Sail-tette Mix mile.

A. Intelligence community currently engaged in re-examiaation of•videoce relating to Soviet ICBM production sad deplo meat.

' L Review not yet completed. but soy lead to somerevi•loa of previous estimates.

B. Lost year CIA estimated a Soviet program which would havegiven them ISO ICBMs on Lavacher in radd-1961.

1. Other opinion', in intelligence yenszamity ranged (remAtety45aVy view (50 in osid.1,61) to Air Force view (oo In mid -1961).

Z. CIA estimate for mid-1963 was 400. Arnay-.Navy. ZOO:Air Force, 700.

C. CIA now believes that Soviet ettetigth in ICBMs on lauschersas of mid-1961 probabLy more nearly approximates 30-100.

I. While evideace indicate* a large commitment ofresources, program the. far appears to have been moderate in tempo .

A. we bailers that 100-150 is tbe highest present force levelwhich can be reconciled with the evidence.

3. A rigid interpretation of tke evidence could lead toestimate of lees than SO

D. for tutors buildup. CIA estimates that Soviets probably willhave Z00-400 operational lexmchers by mid-l964 soros for a new LCS/i4•yetess.

1. Cannot exclode the possibility of as many as 450 by mid-1963.

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L. Ilbonid note that these estimates represent CIA view, —current views of other intelligence agencies may well vary considerably.

U. Ailtdiu_sn a4 Ia ediate e Ballistic Missiles.

A. Soviets now have available ballistic missiles of 700 (88-3)and 1,100 a. m. (88-4) range which provide overlapping coverage oftargets on the Soviet periphery.

1. Lent year we estimated requirement of about Asolauncliere for these missiles r- 150 for 55-3 and 100 for 88-4 --to be attained In mid-1961.

2. lLeydrensent for missile Inventory sat at 450 for 88-3and 300 for 58-4. to be achieved by mid-1963.

B. CIA estimates the same requirement's for latincliere andbut believes they vrill be met by mild-1914.

1. Mid-1941 strength estimated at 100 SS-3 launchers (300 missiles)and 125 EI5■4 Launchers (400 missiles).

C. CIA estimates now take account of new 2, 000 a. m. anisette.

I. Seem a buildup to 50-100 launcher. and 150-450 missiles ofthis type by raid 1965.

Z. By that time, reduction in medium range missile strengthwill probably have begun.

Ai Previous estimates of Soviet long range bomber force sebstantiallyunchanged.

1. Illid-1961 strength of Soviet Long-Lange Aviation estimated at150 heavy bombers,. jets and turboprops. and 950 jet medium bombers.

2. Estimate a decline in this (arcs to about 100 heavies andTOO mediums by 1966.

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No Objection To Declassification 2007109/13: NLK-08-002-11-1-2

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3. Adadium bomber category will include perhaps 100new supersonic "dash" mediums.

B. Air frame estimates higher -- 200 heavies for 19bZ-i966 period.and slower decline in taedturns.

1V. Submarine-Launched Missile.

A. Believe Soviets now have two types of submariner capable oflaunching 150 n. its. or 350 a. m. ballistic missiles.

I. Converted "Z" class -- estimate USSR now has 6 ofthese. each with two missile tubes. Doubt that they will convert more.

2. ' C'' class -- estimated 15 now operational and 18 fromn3.id-1962 on. Believe each can launch 3-4 missiles.

B. Soviets neve also developed a 300 a. m. supersonic cruiee -typemissile which *omit' be operational this year.

L Have not identified the subtaaria* for which it was designed.

C. Estimate that Soviets will go to nuclear powered Rube equippedWith new longer r &Age (500 - 1 000 n. m. )

1. MB. could have 2 of these by mid-1962 building up to 18In m14-1966.

2. Might have a few auclear-powered missile subs thisyear U they used missiles already available.

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No Objection To Declassification 2007/09/13 NLK-06-002-11-1-2