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June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 1
Willie Soon and Conflicted Climate Science:
Science Journals Unwittingly Serve As A Conduit For Corporate Interests
June 2015
Introduction The Climate Investigations Center (CIC) monitors the individuals and organizations trying to delay the implementation of sound energy and environmental policies that are necessary in the face of the climate crisis. For more than twenty five years, the fossil fuel companies and their allies have adopted a strategy of “manufacturing doubt” as a means of stalling and subverting regulation, similar to the strategy deployed by the tobacco industry when facing mounting pressure by regulators seeking to protect public health.1 With oil, coal and utility companies at the lead, corporate interests have pushed uncertainty about the scientific consensus on climate change as an explicit strategy. Numerous leaked documents and investigations have revealed efforts that often include tactical funding of scientists who believe or are willing to express a counter-narrative, creating the impression that the scientific community is divided on the urgency of climate change. In February 2015, we released documents with Greenpeace produced by a five-year investigation into the corporate funding of Dr. Willie Soon, a well-known climate science denier, of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, a part of Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (Harvard-Smithsonian CfA). Since 2001, Dr. Soon has received grants from fossil fuel vested corporate interests totaling more than $1.2 Million dollars. These funders are the Southern Company, ExxonMobil Corporation, the Charles G Koch Foundation and the American Petroleum Institute. The only other funding he has received in this time period are anonymous grants from the secretive DonorsTrust organization totaling nearly $325,000.2 This report summarizes the latest findings of our ongoing investigation, focusing on the response by scientific journals in which Dr. Soon published his work and failed to reveal any conflict of interest or corporate funding, while reporting these same published papers to his corporate donors as “deliverables” in his grant reports. Our report is based on a review of internal Harvard-Smithsonian CfA documents and emails, Soon’s papers published in journals, and responses we received from nine journals that published Soon’s work.
1 Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, “Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming,” Bloomsbury Press, Reprint 2011. 2 Climate Investigations Center, “Willie Soon Scandal: Corporate Funding Year by Year”, Feb 27, 2015. http://www.climateinvestigations.org/willie-‐soon-‐scandal-‐corporate-‐funding-‐year-‐by-‐year
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 2
Findings Based upon our review of all of the above materials, we report the following:
• Dr. Soon has engaged in a reckless pattern of disregard for basic ethical standards of science, by failing to disclose his industry funding and conflicts of interest.
• An ethics team from the publisher Elsevier is now investigating the matter. Six of the “deliverables” were published in four different Elsevier journals. Correspondence from Soon’s lawyers has been forwarded from one of the journals to Elsevier.
• The American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate has changed Dr.
Soon’s 2009 study, adding a “publisher’s note and an amendment to the acknowledgments that make clear [Soon’s] funding source.” The note reads: “This article was revised on 13 March 2015 to include in the acknowledgement section the following statement: Dr. Willie Soon received support from the Southern Company under agreement for SAO Proposal P6882-1-08.”
• Eleven of Dr. Soon’s studies listed as “deliverables” were published in eight
science journals and one law school quarterly. None of the studies disclosed Dr. Soon’s industry funding.
• The journals in question are published by six different publishers including
EDP, Elsevier, UC Berkeley School of Law, Boalt Hall, INFORMS, American Meteorological Society, and Taylor & Francis.
• Six of the eight science journals have conflict of interest policies that appear to have been violated by Dr. Soon’s failure to report his corporate funding.
• Three journals do not appear have a conflict of interest policy to violate.
• Five of the journals state they are looking into the matter, and four of those state that they plan to take future action.
• The law journal Ecology Law Quarterly states they have no conflict of
interest policy but will explore implementing a disclosure rule for all law journals at UC Berkeley School of Law, Boalt Hall.
• The journal Physical Geography responded to our letter by saying they do not have conflict of interest policy to violate, even though one exists.
• The journal Astronomy and Astrophysics states it has no conflict of interest
policy and Soon’s industry funding is irrelevant.
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 3
Overview In 2011, Dr. Charles Alcock, the Director of Harvard-Smithsonian CfA acknowledged to the New York Times that, since 2003, Soon’s money came exclusively from the fossil fuel industry or foundations funded by the fossil fuel industry.3 Said Dr. Alcock to the Times, “As long as there are no strings with the money and as long as there is full disclosure, I am fine with it.” In January 2015, the CIC began a review of documents made public by the Smithsonian Institution under the Freedom of Information Act. These Harvard-Smithsonian CfA documents included reports to corporations and foundations who paid Dr. Soon through annual grants. Within the grant reports, Dr. Soon’s papers that were published in peer-reviewed science literature are cited and referenced as “deliverables” to fossil fuel funders, meaning they fulfilled the terms of the grant. These reports included Southern Company Services Inc. (a subsidiary company of The Southern Company) and the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. A series of emails and contracts indicate that each of those two entities expected Soon to publish articles on particular subjects in exchange for its grant. After reviewing each of those published studies, we found that none of the papers disclosed Soon’s ongoing industry funding. In late February 2015, the CIC sent letters to eight science journals and one law quarterly that published eleven of Dr. Soon’s “deliverables.”4 We have received responses from every journal. Disclosure of funding is important because a large scientific literature, dating to the 1980’s, finds that research outcomes can be statistically correlated with funding sources. This is called the “funding effect.”5 The funding effect is well documented in pharmaceutical research, where industry-funded studies have been shown to favor to the sponsors’ products—defined as showing efficacy or less harm for the sponsor's product—than studies with other sources of funding.6 Bias by scientists may be unconscious. For instance, a survey of researchers conducted by the Nuffield Council on Bioethics found that fifty-eight percent of respondents reported that their colleagues had been tempted to compromise on research integrity, but only twenty-six per cent of these same respondents reported
3 Leslie Kaufman, “Exxon Cut Financing to Climate Skeptics, Group Says,” New York Times Green Blog, July 1, 2011. See also: http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/exxon-‐is-‐financing-‐fewer-‐climate-‐skeptics-‐group-‐says/ 4 Letters were sent to the following journals: Astronomy and Astrophysics, Ecological Complexity, Ecology Law Quarterly, Interfaces, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-‐Terrestrial Physics, Journal of Climate, New Astronomy, Physical Geography 5 Sheldon Krimsky, “Do Financial Conflicts of Interest Bias Research? An Inquiry into the “Funding Effect” Hypothesis,” Science, Technology, and Human Values, September 20, 2012. See also: http://sth.sagepub.com/content/38/4/566.abstract 6 Lundh A, Sismondo S, Lexchin J, Busuioc OA, Bero L. “Industry sponsorship and research outcome,” Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, December 2012. See also: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/14651858.MR000033.pub2/abstract
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 4
being personally tempted to engage in similar behavior.7 And a study of medical residents found that sixty-one percent felt that gifts from pharmaceutical companies would not affect their behavior, but thought that only sixteen percent of their colleagues would remain similarly unaffected.8 In 2007, Sheldon Krimsky of Tufts University wrote that conflicts of interest have become so corrosive that they should be considered a legal form of research misconduct.9 Two years later, the Institute of Medicine published a study on conflicts of interest in research, because “conflicts present the risk of undue influence on professional judgments and thereby may jeopardize the integrity of scientific investigations” and public trust in research.10 The report concluded that disclosure is an “essential, though limited, first step in identifying and responding to conflicts of interest.” It appears that Smithsonian does not have a policy requiring their researchers to disclose their funding when publishing. Nevertheless Harvard-Smithsonian’s director of institutions has said the institution expects researchers to comply with journal rules.11 Soon has accepted more than $1.2 million from the fossil fuel industry in the last decade.12 The CfA director has said that Soon violated some journals’ disclosure standards: “I think that’s inappropriate behavior,” Harvard-Smithsonian CfA’s Director Dr. Alcock told the New York Times. “This frankly becomes a personnel matter, which we have to handle with Dr. Soon internally.”13 Soon’s research has been a boon to industry attempts to confuse the public about the science of climate change. For instance, two of Soon’s industry-funded “deliverables” discussed in this report have been cited by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports.14 According to the IPCC, assessment report authors are required to critically review the “quality and validity of
7 Nuffield Council on Bioethics, “The Culture of Scientific Research in the UK,” December 2014. See also: http://nuffieldbioethics.org/wp-‐content/uploads/Nuffield_research_culture_full_report_web.pdf 8 Michael Steinman, “Of principles and pens: attitudes and practices of medicine housestaff toward pharmaceutical industry promotions,” The American Journal of Medicine, May 2001. See also: http://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-‐9343(01)00660-‐X/abstract?cc=y= 9 Sheldon Krimsky, “When conflict-‐of-‐interest is a factor in scientific misconduct,” Medicine and Law, (2007) 26:447-‐463. See also: http://www.tufts.edu/~skrimsky/PDF/Medicine & Law.PDF 10 Institute of Medicine, “Conflict of Interest in Medical Research, Education, and Practice,” April 2009. See also: https://www.iom.edu/Reports/2009/Conflict-‐of-‐Interest-‐in-‐Medical-‐Research-‐Education-‐and-‐Practice.aspx 11 Jeff Tollefson, “Documents spur investigation of climate sceptic,” Nature, February 21, 2015. See also: http://www.nature.com/news/documents-‐spur-‐investigation-‐of-‐climate-‐sceptic-‐1.16972 12 Justin Gillis and John Schwartz, “Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Researcher,” New York Times, February 21, 2015. See also: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/us/ties-‐to-‐corporate-‐cash-‐for-‐climate-‐change-‐researcher-‐Wei-‐Hock-‐Soon.html?_r=0 13 Justin Gillis and John Schwartz, “Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Researcher,” New York Times, February 21, 2015. See also: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/us/ties-‐to-‐corporate-‐cash-‐for-‐climate-‐change-‐researcher-‐Wei-‐Hock-‐Soon.html?_r=0 14 Jon Jervey, “How Often Were Willie Soon’s Industry-‐Funded “Deliverables” Referenced by the IPCC?” DesmogBlog, February 23, 2015. See also:
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 5
each source before incorporating information into an IPCC Report.”15 By failing to disclose his industry funding, Soon has potentially biased this process. In another example, Soon published a study in Science Bulletin in 2014 asserting that the global models for climate change were wrong. That premise that has now been refuted by another, more recent paper, also published in Science Bulletin.16 Smithsonian's Acting Secretary Albert Horvath has asked the organization's Inspector General to investigate the allegations against Soon. Horvath is also reviewing Smithsonian’s ethics and disclosure policies governing the conduct of sponsored research.17 While Soon has declared adamantly that his funding sources have no bearing on the research he does or the conclusions he draws, one has to ask what mutual interest ExxonMobil, American Petroleum Institute, Charles Koch Foundation and Southern Company had in funding Dr. Soon’s Arctic research. Meanwhile, email communications and contracts with his funders show that, while many funders have fallen away over the past five years, Southern Company remained a Soon funder in an apparently intentionally covert relationship. For example, Soon’s contract with the Southern Company states, in pertinent part:
“Publicity. Smithsonian shall not publish and utilize the name or otherwise identify SCS [Southern Company Services Inc.] or its affiliate companies in any publications or other advertisments without the express written consent of SCS. As further consideration to SCS, Smithsonian shall provide SCS an advance written copy of proposed publications regarding the deliverables for comment and input, if any, from SCS.” 18
Southern Company was not to be revealed as a funder of Willie Soon. At least that is how Harvard-Smithsonian interpreted the contract, which Director Alcock now says was a mistake.19
http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/02/23/how-‐often-‐were-‐willie-‐soon-‐s-‐industry-‐funded-‐deliverables-‐referenced-‐ipcc 15 Jon Jervey, “How Often Were Willie Soon’s Industry-‐Funded “Deliverables” Referenced by the IPCC?” DesmogBlog, February 23, 2015. See also: http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/02/23/how-‐often-‐were-‐willie-‐soon-‐s-‐industry-‐funded-‐deliverables-‐referenced-‐ipcc 16 “Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned”, The Guardian, 3 June 2015. See also http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-‐consensus-‐97-‐per-‐cent/2015/jun/03/research-‐downplaying-‐impending-‐global-‐warming-‐is-‐overturned See also http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-‐015-‐0806-‐z 17 David Hasemyer, “Smithsonian's Inspector General to Probe Willie Soon,” Inside Climate News, February 23, 2015. See also: http://insideclimatenews.org/news/23022015/smithsonians-‐inspector-‐general-‐probe-‐willie-‐soon 18 Southern Company contract with Harvard-‐Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1531939-‐foia-‐response-‐willie-‐soon-‐2012.html 19 Jeff Tollefson, “Documents spur investigation of climate sceptic,” Nature, February 21, 2015. See also: http://www.nature.com/news/documents-‐spur-‐investigation-‐of-‐climate-‐sceptic-‐1.16972
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 6
The Southern Company has now declared that it will discontinue funding Willie Soon at the end of this grant cycle.20
• Has Smithsonian been notified by Southern Company on the termination of the contract?
• Are there modifications to the existing contract with Southern Company through 2015?
• What are the expected "deliverables" from Soon to Southern Company for 2015?
• We also have not seen the "deliverables" or "Year End Reports" from Soon to Southern for the 2013, 2014 2015 contracts.
Ongoing Questions How can you declare no conflict of interest when your donor is anonymous? One of Willie Soon’s remaining funders is an entity called DonorsTrust, which has been called a “dark money ATM”. Dr. Soon has received $325,000 in grants from DonorsTrust from 2011 through 2015. Within the Smithsonian documents there are several documents on the contractual agreement between Harvard-Smithsonian CfA (Dr. Soon) and the DonorsTrust, including a 2010 letter confirming the latest grant. This letter states explicitly that Dr. Soon is not to know who the donor is or contact the donor:
“This gift was made possible through the generosity and recommendation of an account holder who wishes to remain anonymous. However, if you would like to acknowledge receipt of this grant, you may write DonorsTrust and we will forward your correspondence to the appropriate account holder.”21
Therefore, several key questions arise, with direct bearing on conflict of interest reporting:
• Does Dr. Soon know who this “anonymous” donor is? • If not, how can he report no conflict of interest when he doesn’t know if
the donor is a corporation or individual with business interests affected by the outcome of the public policy debate around climate change?
• How can an anonymous donor support the work of a researcher actively engaged in publishing articles in scientific journals that require disclosure of donors?
The DonorsTrust grants are Dr. Soon’s only ongoing source of financial support that is going through Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, now that Southern Company has stated that it will not renew after this grant expires. Selective reporting of conflict of interest 20 Washington Post http://www.climateinvestigations.org/southern-‐company-‐dumps-‐climate-‐denier-‐willie-‐soon 21 Letter from Whitney Ball, CEO of DonorsTrust to Dr. Charles Alcock, Director of Harvard-‐Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1531939-‐foia-‐response-‐willie-‐soon-‐2012.html -‐ document/p85/a202788
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 7
One of the most important discoveries in this investigation is Dr. Soon’s apparent selective reporting of funders. Certain of his funders, including ExxonMobil, American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Charles Koch Foundation, have been acknowledged as financial supporters of Soon’s work in various published, peer-reviewed studies. On the other hand, The Southern Company has never been acknowledged publicly as a funder. In one case, this omission seems particularly glaring. A 2007 study by Soon published in the journal Ecological Complexity on polar bears of western Hudson Bay identifies as funders ExxonMobil, API and Charles Koch Foundation. However, according to Smithsonian records, Southern Company’s funding was for identical-sounding work. Southern Company’s grant to Dr. Soon for 2006-2007 for $110,000 was titled “Understanding Arctic Climate Change.” The API gave two grants in this time period titled “Understanding Arctic Climate Change” and “the Solar Influence of Arctic Climate Change.” The Exxon grant for this period was called “Arctic Climate Change”. Incomplete record of Smithsonian documents The journals covered by this report comprise a relatively short stretch of Dr. Soon’s work at Harvard-Smithsonian CfA. Thus far, the ongoing Greenpeace FOIA investigation has only revealed contracts and grant reports from 2008-2012. Soon received grants from Southern Company and others for years before and after this period of time, including the 2006-2007 grant mentioned above and an ongoing 2013-2015 grant titled “A Study of Solar Activity Variation on Multiple Timescales.” Soon received grants totaling nearly $274,000 from the American Petroleum Institute and $335,000 from ExxonMobil dating back to the 1990s, with additional grants from the Charles Koch Foundation in 2005-2006. We do not yet have records from Smithsonian documenting the terms or “deliverables” on those grants. Articles published since 2012 by Willie Soon, without COI declarations Multiple studies and articles have been published in peer-reviewed literature by Dr. Willie Soon since 2012. None of these articles include an acknowledgment of Dr. Soon’s current funding sources. Science Bulletin A controversial study – and the one that prompted our investigation was published in January in Science Bulletin, formerly the Chinese Science Bulletin.
“Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model,” C Monckton, WWH Soon, DR Legates, WM Briggs - Science Bulletin, 201522
At the end of the study under the heading: “Conflict of interest,” it reads, “The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.”
22 http://www.wmbriggs.com/public/Legates.etal.2015.pdf
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 8
Dr. Soon published the paper on climate models with coauthors Monckton, Legates and Briggs in the Chinese Science Bulletin, now known as the Science Bulletin. In the response to our questions to the journal’s editors of the about transparency and conflict of interest reporting, Christopher Monckton, replying on behalf of the authors including Dr. Soon, wrote an email to the editors of the journal stating that they had done the work on their own time without outside compensation. Monckton also stated that Dr. Soon had been instrumental in targeting the Chinese Science Bulletin because in his words,
"We didn't even think of publishing in the West. We decided the West is now no longer doing science, it is doing propaganda via the learned journals, so we weren't playing that game anymore."23
The Science Bulletin has just published a paper that rebuts the findings of the Monckton et al (2015) paper.2425 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences In 2014, Dr. Soon published a letter in response to another study in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Even when submitting such a response to a published study, a conflict of interest declaration is required, which in Dr. Soon’s letter reads, “The authors declare no conflict of interest.” At that time, Soon was in the midst of a multi-year grant from the Southern Company in 2014. His donor from the group Donors Trust during the same period was apparently anonymous to Soon, which raises the question whether Dr. Soon can declare no conflict of interest when he evidently doesn’t know the donor’s identity or interests. The letter to PNAS was a typical Soon comment casting doubt on climate change. It was titled “Arctic albedo changes are small compared with changes in cloud cover in the tropics,” and argues against the significance of the loss of sea ice in the Arctic, which many studies have shown results in darker oceans absorbing more heat than white ice.26 Instead, Soon and his frequent coauthor David Legates of University of Delaware and “independent scientist” Willis Eschenbach (who has no climate science or earth science credentials) argue that cloud cover in the tropics more than offset the warming in the Arctic. The original paper’s authors
23 Vaidyanathan, G. Heartland Institute finds route into U.S. science news conduit through China, ClimateWire, January 23, 2015, http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/stories/1060012152 24 Nuccitelli, Dana. “Research downplaying impending global warming is overturned”, The Guardian, June 3, 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-‐consensus-‐97-‐per-‐cent/2015/jun/03/research-‐downplaying-‐impending-‐global-‐warming-‐is-‐overturned 25 Richardson, M., Hausfather Z., Nuccitellie, D., Rice, K., Abraham, J., “Misdiagnosis of Earth climate sensitivity based on energy balance model results” Science Bulletin May 31, 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-‐015-‐0806-‐z 26 Legates, DR., Eschenbach, W, Soon, W (2014) “Arctic albedo changes are small compared with changes in cloud cover in the tropics”, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences. Vol 111, no. 21, http://www.pnas.org/content/111/21/E2157.full.pdf
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page 9
responded27 to Soon et al, assuming they had misinterpreted the paper and the definition of “planetary albedo,” concluding “the points raised by Legates et al. do not appear to be relevant to our paper.” Nature Geoscience Another study was published in Nature Geoscience this year (March 2015):
“Dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone over the western Pacific during the Little Ice Age”, H Yan, W Wei, W Soon, Z An, W Zhou, Z Liu Nature Geoscience 8, 315–320 (2015) Under the heading “Competing financial interest”, the paper reads, “The authors declare no competing financial interests.”
This study was submitted a year ago in June 2014, at which time Dr. Soon had ongoing grants from Southern Company and Donors Trust
Elsevier – a key publishing route for Dr. Soon Several more studies were published in Elsevier journals between 2013-2015. Elsevier is now conducting an investigation by its ethics committee according to our correspondence with a journal editor. The following studies were published of late:
“A composite sea surface temperature record of the northern South China Sea for the past 2500 years: A unique look into seasonality and seasonal climate changes” H Yan, W Soon, Y Wang - Earth-Science Reviews, 2015 - Elsevier “A review of Holocene solar-linked climatic variation on centennial to millennial timescales: Physical processes, interpretative frameworks and a new multiple cross” -W Soon, VMV Herrera, K Selvaraj, R Traversi… - Earth-Science Reviews, 2014 - Elsevier “Response to the comment on: “Soon, W., and Legates, DR, solar irradiance modulation of equator-to-pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: empirical evidence for climate” …W Soon, DR Legates - Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2015. “A phenomenological study of the timing of solar activity minima of the last millennium through a physical modeling of the Sun–Planets Interaction,” RG Cionco, W Soon - New Astronomy, 2015 – Elsevier
Science & Education
27 Pistone, K, Eisenman, I, Ramanathan V. (2014) Reply to Legates et al: Negligible role of arctic cloud albedo changes in observed darkening, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences. Vol 111, no. 21, http://www.pnas.org/content/111/21/E2159.full.pdf
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page
Two items were published in 2013 by the same group of authors - Soon, Legates, Briggs and Monckton - in the Springer publication, Science & Education:
“Climate consensus and 'misinformation': A rejoinder to Agnotology, scientific consensus, and the teaching and learning of climate change” DR Legates, W Soon, WM Briggs, C Monckton - Science & Education, 2013 – Springer28 “Learning and teaching climate science: The perils of consensus knowledge using agnotology” DR Legates, W Soon, WM Briggs - Science & Education, 2013 - Springer
Conclusion As stated above, we do not yet know if Dr. Soon listed any of these recent publications as “deliverables” to fulfill the grants to Southern Company or DonorsTrust. This may be learned as the Smithsonian Institution and the journals editors themselves investigate Soon’s publication habits. The Smithsonian Inspector General’s investigation, the House Science Committee investigation and the Senate investigation of corporate funding of climate denial research are ongoing. The Southern Company is also said to be conducting an internal audit to see if any other funding of climate denial is being executed. The Greenpeace FOIA investigation is ongoing.
28 http://www.wmbriggs.com/public/Legates.etal.2015.pdf
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JOURNAL RESPONSES
Letters were sent to the following journals: Astronomy and Astrophysics, Ecological Complexity, Ecology Law Quarterly, Interfaces, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Journal of Climate, New Astronomy, Physical Geography I. ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS Study Title: “Multiple and changing cycles of active stars II. Results,” Astronomy Astrophysics, Volume 501, Number 2, July 2009. K. Olah, Z. Kollath, T. Granzer, K.G. Strassmeier, A.F. Lanza, S. Jarvinen, H. Korhonen, S.L. Baliunas, W. Soon, S. Messina, G. Cutispoto. Publisher: EDP Sciences Study Acknowledgement: K.O. acknowledges support from the Hungarian Research Grants OTKA T-048961 and T-068626. S.B. acknowledges support from JPL 12700064, Smithsonian Institution Restricted Endowment funds and NASA NNX07AI356. KGS appreciates the continuous support of the Vienna-AIP APTs in southern Arizona through the State of Brandenburg MWFK. Journal Disclosure Policy: None found. Letter from CIC to Astronomy and Astrophysics editors 29 Journal Response: Dr. Thierry Forveille, Editor-in-Chief30
I did read the NYT piece a couple of days ago and I was aware of the Soon and Baliunas story before, but must say that I am a bit puzzled that you contact me about Olah et al., 2009. That paper looks at the variability of stars that are rather more active than the Sun, and therefore not directly relevant to its behavior within the last billion years. It also makes no claim whatsoever of any relevance to climate. It therefore clearly falls well outside the purview of Dr. Soon's contract with Southern Company Services for “publication of both original and review papers on solar variability and climate change and various environmental impacts of that related change in leading scientific journals for the advancement of climate and meteorological sciences.” Astronomy & Astrophysics has no funding disclosure requirements, since astronomy is sufficiently removed from any monetary consequences that we have never found that necessary, but had we known about Dr. Soon's contract we would
29 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director, Climate Investigations Center to Thierry Forveille, Editor-‐in-‐Chief, Astronomy Astrophysics, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671870-‐forveille.html 30 Email from Thierry Forveille, Editor in Chief of Astronomy & Astrophysics to Kert Davies, Executive Director, Climate Investigations Center, dated February 24, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2092841-‐correspondence-‐with-‐astronomy-‐and-‐astrophysics.html
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have judged its existence irrelevant to the evaluation of the paper. That Dr. Soon included this totally irrelevant paper in the Year 1 Report, which you forwarded me, certainly does not reflect very well on his ethical standards, but this is an issue that I don't think the journal has standing to act on.
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II. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY Study Title: “Reply to response to et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay,” by Stirling et al. (2008)” Ecological Complexity, vol. 5, 289-302 by Dyck, Soon et. al. (2008). Publisher: Elsevier Study Acknowledgement: We thank Kesten Green, Mitchell Taylor, and Martina Tyrrell for important contribution of their expertise and knowledge in preparing this reply. Journal Disclosure Policy: All authors are requested to disclose any actual or potential conflict of interest including any financial, personal or other relationships with other people or organizations within three years of beginning the submitted work that could inappropriately influence, or be perceived to influence, their work. Letter from CIC to Ecological Complexity editors31 Journal Response: Bia-lian (Larry) Li, Founding Editor32
Thank you for your message and mail, Director Davies. I was the Chief Editor when his paper was published. Our journal policies are set up by our publisher Elsevier, not us. The case you presented here, to my view, should be author’s responsibility. We generally focus on scientific merit of the research papers. However, your concern is now well noticed.
31 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center to Dr. Sergei Petrovskii, Editor-‐in-‐Chief Ecological Complexity, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671894-‐petrovskii.html 32 Email from Bia-‐lian (Larry) Li, Founding Editor of Ecological Complexity to Kert Davies, Executive Director, Climate Investigations Center, dated March 2, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2092842-‐correspondence-‐with-‐ecological-‐complexity.html
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III. ECOLOGY LAW QUARTERLY Study Title: “Avoiding Carbon Myopia: Three Considerations for Policy Makers Concerning Manmade Carbon Dioxide,” by Willie Soon and David R. Legates (2010) in Ecology Law Currents, vol. 37, 1-9. Publisher: UC Berkeley School of Law, Boalt Hall Study Acknowledgement: Dr. Soon is an astrophysicist at the Solar, Stellar and Planetary Sciences Division of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Dr. Soon has written and lectured extensively on issues related to the sun and other stars and climate. The views expressed by Willie Soon are strictly his and do not necessarily reflect those of Harvard University, the Smithsonian Institution, or the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Journal Disclosure Policy: None found Letter from CIC to Ecology Law Quarterly editors33 Journal Response: Ms. Elise O’Dea, Editor in Chief34
I am writing to follow up on my last email. I want to thank you for bringing this issue to our attention; both ELQ and the law school take it very seriously. Your email brings up an important topic not only for ELQ, but for all the law journals on campus. Thanks to your alert, we are exploring the possibility of developing a conflict of interest policy of some nature for our law journals.
33 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director, Climate Investigations Center to Ms. Heather Welles, Editor-‐in-‐Chief of Ecology Law Quarterly, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671902-‐welles.html 34 Email from Elise O’Dea, Editor-‐in-‐Chief to Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, dated March 11, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2093550-‐correspondence-‐with-‐ecology-‐law-‐quarterly.html
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IV. INTERFACES Study Title: “Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit,” Interfaces vol. 38, 382-404. J. Scott Kesten, C. Green, and Willie Soon (2008). Publisher: The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) Study Acknowledgement: We thank Don Esslemont, Milton Freeman, Paul Goodwin, Benny Peiser, Orrin Pilkey, Tom Stewart, Mitchell Taylor, and two anonymous reviewers for the comments on earlier drafts. Janice Down and Kelly in [PART OF A NAME MISSING??] provided editorial assistance. Journal Disclosure Policy: None found Letter from CIC to the Interfaces journal editors35 Journal Response: Miranda Walker, Director, Publications INFORMS36
Thank you for your letter of February 20, 2015 sent to Dr. Srinivas Bollapragada regarding the journal Interfaces and our conflict of interest policy. Maintaining the highest ethical standards is of paramount importance to Interfaces, our editors, our peer reviewers, and of course, those who read the articles published in our pages. We appreciate the information that you and others have shared with us and will ensure that it receives careful and deliberate attention. Please direct all future questions regarding or relating to [this article] to me.
35 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, to Dr. Srinivas Bollapragada, Editor-‐in-‐Chief of Interfaces, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671885-‐kohpazi.html 36 Email from Miranda Walker, Director, Publications INFORMS to Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, dated February 25, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2092843-‐correspondence-‐with-‐interfaces.html
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page
V. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING Study Title: “Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making,” Kesten C. Green, J. Scott, Willie Soon, International Journal of Forecasting, volume 25, issue 4, October-December 2009, pages 826-832. Publisher: Elsevier Study Acknowledgement: We thank the nine people who reviewed the paper for us at different stages of its development and the two anonymous reviewers for their many helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank Michael Gruth for his useful suggestions on the writing. Journal Disclosure Policy: All authors are requested to disclose any actual or potential conflict of interest including any financial, personal or other relationships with other people or organizations within three years of beginning the submitted work that could inappropriately influence, or be perceived to influence, their work. Letter from CIC to the Journal of Forecasting editors37 Journal Response: Rob Hyndman, Editor-in-Chief:38
We have referred the matter to Elsevier and they have an ethics team investigating. We have also received correspondence from Dr Soon and from his lawyers which we have passed to Elsevier. We will not be taking any action until we have received advice from the Elsevier ethics investigators.
37 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center to Rob Hyndman, Editor-‐in-‐Chief of International Journal of Forecasting, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671976-‐hamoudia-‐journal-‐forecasting.html 38 Email from Rob Hyndman, Editor-‐in-‐Chief of International Journal of Forecasting to Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, dated February 22, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2092844-‐correspondence-‐with-‐international-‐journal-‐of.html
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page
VI. JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PHYSICS Study Title: “Temporal derivative of total solar irradiance and anomalous Indian Summer Monsoon: An empirical evidence for a sun-climate connection,” by Rajesh Agnihotri, Koushik Dutta and Willie Soon (2011), Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 73, 1980. “Variation in the surface air temperature of China during the 20th century," by Willie Soon, Koushik Dutta, David Legates, Victor Velasco, Weijia Zhang (2011) Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 73, 2331-2344. "Solar Irradiance Modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) Temperature Gradients: Empirical Evidence for Climate Variation on Multi-decadal Timescales” by Willie Soon and David R. Legates (2012), Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics. Publisher: Elsevier Study Acknowledgements: “Temporal derivative of total solar irradiance and anomalous Indian Summer Monsoon: An empirical evidence for a sun-climate connection.” Acknowledgments read: RA thanks Directors of the National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi and the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa (components of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Govt. of India) for the facilities provided and the financial support. We thank Professor Robert M. Carter for help in editing the manuscript. We also thank M.G. Yadava (Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India) for sharing his published df Akala- gavi speleothem, and N.A. Krivova (Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany) for sharing the reconstructed TSI data. We are also grateful to two anonymous referees for sharing their insights and knowledge on the subject of solar variability and its potential connections to climate change. https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/Hiremath2012-d/AgnihotriDuttaSoon11-Aug5-TSIderivativevsISM-final.pdf “Variation in the surface air temperature of China during the 20th century," "Solar Irradiance Modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) Temperature Gradients: Empirical Evidence for Climate Variation on Multi-decadal Timescales.” We thank Dr. Nicola Scafetta for sharing with us the updated and re-scaled TSI series based on Hoyt and Schatten (1993) proxy series and ACRIM satellite radiometers results. We also wish to thank Drs. Gene Avrett, Steve Cranmer, Juan Fontenla, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Richard Lindzen, Niklas Mörner, Harry van Loon, and three anonymous referees for their careful reading of the manuscript and constructive criticisms, comments, and improvements. We also thank Dr. Gil Compo for helpful answers on the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset and Drs. Jiping Liu and YongYun Hu for their generosity in sharing some of their new results and data series on Hadley circulation. Willie Soon would also like to extend his appreciation to Julia Pham, Benjamin and Franklin Soon, David and Steve Fettig, Sallie Baliunas, Bob Carter, Juan Ramirez, Dennis Mitchell, and Geoff Smith for encouraging him to continue his scientific research in understanding the sun–climate connection.
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page
Journal Disclosure Policy: All authors are requested to disclose any actual or potential conflict of interest including any financial, personal or other relationships with other people or organizations within three years of beginning the submitted work that could inappropriately influence, or be perceived to influence, their work. CIC Letter to Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics editors 39 Journal Response: Dr. Robert Strangeway, Editor-in-Chief:40
I am aware of the New York Times article, and I have contacted the Editorial Office of the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics for guidance as to what the Journal should do in response to the allegations in the New York Times article. I have also forwarded your email and the associated attachments to the Journal Publisher. While we have not yet determined what action the Journal will take, the Publisher of the Journal has made it clear that such allegations are taken very seriously.
39 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center to Robert Strangeway Editor-‐in-‐Chief of Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671974-‐hamoudia-‐j-‐astp.html 40 Email from Robert Strangeway, Editor-‐in-‐Chief of Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics to Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, dated February 24, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2092845-‐correspondence-‐with-‐journal-‐of-‐atmospheric-‐and.html
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page
VII. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Study Title: “Centennial variations of the global monsoon precipitation in the last millennium: Results from ECHO-G model,” Journal of Climate, vol. 22, 2356-2371, by Jian Liu, Bin Wang, Qinghua Ding, Xueyuan Kuang, Willie Soon, and Eduardo Zorita. Publisher: American Meteorological Society Study Acknowledgement: Jian Liu and Bin Wang acknowledge the financial supports from the Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grants KZCX2-YW-315), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant 2004CB720208), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 40672210). Bin Wang and Qinghua Ding acknowledge the support received from the National Science Foundation (NSF) climate dynamics group (ATM06-295331) and NOAA/OGP. Journal Disclosure Policy: All funding sources should be identified in the manuscript. Authors should disclose to the editor any financial arrangement with a research sponsor that could give the appearance of a conflict of interest. Letter from CIC to the Journal of Climate editors41 Journal Response: Dr. Anthony Broccoli, Co-Chief Editor:42
Dear Mr. Davies, thank you for following up on your letter. I’m sorry that I haven’t responded, but I didn’t see any specific questions that were directed to me or my colleagues. If you’re asking for a reaction to the allegation regarding Dr. Soon’s paper, it will not come from Dr. Chiang or me because the author disclosure policy is not specific to the Journal of Climate but applies to all of the journals published by AMS. Please direct any questions regarding this allegation to AMS Director of Publications Ken Heideman.
Response from Ken Heideman, Director of Publications at American Meteorological Society:
AMS has amended the 2009 paper that Willie Soon coauthored with a publisher’s note and an amendment to the acknowledgments that make clear his funding source. You can see/download the PDF or full text by going to this link: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2353.1
41 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, to Anthony J. Broccoli and John C. H. Chiang, Co-‐Chief Editors of Journal of Climate, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671889-‐macdonald.html 42 Email from Dr. Anthony Broccoli, Co-‐Chief Editor of Journal of Climate to Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, dated March 1, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2092846-‐correspondence-‐with-‐journal-‐of-‐climate.html
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page
VIII. NEW ASTRONOMY Study Title: "Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Dancing with the tunes of the sun,” by KM Hiremath, Hegde Manjunath, and Willie Soon, Volume 35, February 2015, Pages 8–19. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1384107614001158 Publisher: Elsevier Study Acknowledgement: This research has been carried out under ‘‘CAWSES India Phase- II program of Theme 1’’ sponsored by Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Government of India. We are grateful to both Professor Peter Conti, the editor and the referee for useful and helpful comments that improved this manuscript substantially. Journal Disclosure Policy: All authors are requested to disclose any actual or potential conflict of interest including any financial, personal or other relationships with other people or organizations within three years of beginning the submitted work that could inappropriately influence, or be perceived to influence, their work. Letter from CIC to New Astronomy editors43 Journal Response: Email from Gianfranco Brunetti, Receiving Editor:44
I received your documents (via mail), thanks a lot. In the last several months we had a discussion within the board of editors about this situation, I guess that similar discussions were taken by other board and journals involved. Obviously I cannot reveal the details of the discussion and the outcome, however I would expect (my feeling/guess) a “fair note” also from Elsevier. Thanks again for the information.
43 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center to Gianfranco Brunetti, Receiving Editor at New Astronomy, dated February 20, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671865-‐brunetti.html 44 Email from Gianfranco Brunetti, Receiving Editor of New Astronomy to Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, dated June 2, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2093551-‐correspondence-‐with-‐new-‐astronomy-‐from-‐dr.html
June 2015 www.ClimateInvestigations.org Page
IX. PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY Study Title: “Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: Empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences,” Physical Geography, Volume 30, Issue 2, 2009. Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online Study Acknowledgements: I thank two referees for their constructive comments and edits that improved the paper. I also thank all colleagues whose works are cited here, and especially those who have allowed access to their hard-earned data series: Nicola Scafetta, Karin Boessenkool, Igor Yashayaev, Igor Polyakov, Mihai Dima, Lars Smedsrud, Jeff Knight, Rob Allan, Daniel Hodson, David Holland, Mads Ribergaard, Frank Kauker, and John Fasullo. I thank Scott Gene Avrett, Sallie Baliunas, Dan Botkin, Bob Carter, Shaun Cheok, Susan Crockford, Bob Ferguson, Dave Fettig, Kesten Green, Joe Kunc, Keith Lockitch, Christopher Monckton, Lubos Motl, Jane Orient, Eric Posmentier, Art Robinson, Mitch Taylor, Bin Wang, and the late Robert Jastrow for their encouragement, and Gene Avrett and Steve Cranmer for their editorial help. I further thank Than, Lien and Julia Pham, Chiew-See Chua, as well as Benjamin and Franklin Soon for motivation. This new [study??] was based on a presentation at the 33rd International Geological Congress held in Oslo, Norway, August 6-14, 2008, as well as by another presentation at the International Symposium on Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System held at Jakarta, Indonesia, November 24-26, 2008. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and are independent of sources providing support. Journal Disclosure Policy: Authors must declare any potential conflict of interest – be it professional or financial – which could be held to arise with respect to the article. Authors must disclose all sources of funding for the research reported in the paper.45 Letter from CIC to Physical Geography editors46 Journal Response: Dr. Carol Harden, Editor-in-Chief47
Thank you for keeping us informed about this. An important piece of information missing from the letter you sent is that Physical Geography was not published by Taylor & Francis in 2009, and it did not have a financial disclosure policy at that time. That means that
45 Taylor & Francis Author Guide, Publishing Ethics. See page: http://journalauthors.tandf.co.uk/preparation/ethics.asp 46 Letter from Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center to Carol P. Harden Editor-‐in-‐Chief of Physical Geography, dated February 18, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1671893-‐orme.html 47 Email from Carol Harden, Editor-‐in-‐Chief of Physical Geography to Kert Davies, Executive Director of Climate Investigations Center, dated February 23, 2015. See also: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2092847-‐correspondence-‐with-‐physical-‐geography.html
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Physical Geography cannot make the claim that Dr. Soon violated the journal's policy. For your information, Physical Geography was published by Bellwether Publications (a small, family-owned press) from its first issue in 1980 until 2013, when the owner of the press retired and this journal (along with several others) was transferred to Routledge/Taylor & Francis. Routledge/Taylor & Francis does require authors to disclose their funding sources.