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A 30,000-Foot View of the Demographic LandscapeWilliam H. FreyThe Brookings Institution & The University of Michigan
www.frey-demographer.org
Projected 50 Years Population Growth
US: Population by Race: 2000 and 205069.1%50.1%
US: Population by Age: 2000 and 205012.4%20.7%
New Demographic RegionsMelting Pot AmericaThe New SunbeltThe Heartland
Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland StatesNew SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States
Share of U.S. in Melting Pot StatesForeign Born 70%Asian Language at Home 68%Spanish at Home 76%Mixed Marriages 51%
Native Born 37%English at Home 34%
Demographic Components, 2000-2007(Rates per 1000)
Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-07
1New York1,079,7002Los Angeles 804,7023Miami 414,1894Chicago 379,5505Dallas 289,3126Houston 263,3097San Francisco 246,8778Washington DC 241,661
Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-07
1Phoenix477,8712Riverside, CA468,8733Atlanta353,9534Las Vegas287,1925Tampa254,7396Orlando226,6497Dallas220,5798Charlotte, NC185,647
Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-07
1New York-1,643,2282Los Angeles-1,120,8543Chicago-477,2544San Francisco-354.5345New Orleans-323.8696Detroit-263,3227Boston-260,1768San Jose-224,992
Race Composition of Regions 2007Melting PotNew SunbeltHeartland
Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990-2007
New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990-2007
California: All Races Out-Migrate
Growing "New Immigrant" Destinations 1990-2005
Immigrant Concentrations in States19902005
Immigrants vs Natives
Hispanic ConcentrationsData source: William H. Frey, US Census EstimatesPercent of County Population
Greatest Hispanic Gains, 2000-07
Fastest Hispanic Growth, 2000-07Metros with at least 50,000 Hispanics
1Cape Coral, FL137.3.2Port St. Lucie, FL109.53Charlotte100.74Fayetteville, AR 98.85Raleigh 96.26Lakeland, FL 92,47Nashville 92.18Indianapolis 85.9
Asian ConcentrationsPercent of County PopulationData source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
Greatest Asian Gains, 2000-07
1New York315,0222Los Angeles204,6413Washington DC110,1484San Francisco108,7365San Jose98,4466Chicago95,9197Dallas85,1798Riverside84,407
Fastest Asian Growth, 2000-07Metros with at least 50,000 Asians
1Las Vegas71.52Phoenix65.33Riverside57.44Austin56.15Orlando55.66Atlanta53.07Tampa50.98Columbus OH45.2
Black ConcentrationsPercent of County PopulationData source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
Greatest Black Gains, 2000-07
1Atlanta413,1992Houston150,1803Dallas144,8874Miami105,0935Washington DC100,1976Charlotte84,6817Orlando69,9138Baltimore61,509
White ConcentrationsPercent of County PopulationData source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
2000-07 Greatest White Decliners
1New York-280,5192Los Angeles-229,4933Miami-142,6964San Francisco-130,7095New Orleans-127,1206Pittsburgh-95,7137San Jose-82,3478Philadelphia-76,663
2000-07 Greatest White Gainers
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Born in Same StateSource: William H. Frey analysis
US Growth by Age 2000-10
Growth by Age, 2000-10
State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-2010Under age 18
Growth in H.S. Graduates, 2002-3 to 2009-10
Percent Non White Children*, 2015* Under age 15
Percent Children with Immigrant Parents - 200651%35%35%34%32%31%31%23%
Children Speaking Other than English*, 2005Source: William H. Frey analysis* Ages 5 - 17
Percent Speaking Spanish, Children and Adults, 2005
English Proficiency for Spanish Speakers, 2005
Hispanic, Asian Children by Generation, 2006HispanicsAsians
Young Adult Education 2006 , 2 GenerationsHispanicsAsians
US Growth by Age 2000-10
Age 65 + Growth, 2000-10, US States
Percent 65+ population for States, 2005
Greatest 65+ Growth: Large Metros
1Las Vegas131.42McAllen, TX63.33Colorado Springs62.44Austin62.05Raleigh57.46Phoenix54.37El Paso52.98Atlanta51.69Orlando51.310Houston50.5
Greatest 65+ Decline: Large Metros
1Scranton-10.82Pittsburgh-2.73Springfield, MA-2.14Buffalo-1.55Worcester, MA-0.66New Haven-0.57Providence0.18Youngstown-OH0.89Toledo1.110Cleveland2.5
Fastest Growing Old-Old (85+), 2000-10 % Growth 1. Alaska 116.0 2. Nevada 96.9 3. Arizona 76.4 4. New Mexico 64.4 5. Florida 62.4 6. California 57.8 7. Delaware 57.7 8. Hawaii 57.4 9. Maryland 57.1
Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States
Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40FloridaCaliforniaNew Yorkpercent growth
Rates of Migration by AgePer 100
Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migrationpercent growth
New York Projections: Aging in Place and MigrationSource: William H. Frey analysispercent growth
Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife
Race for Age Groups: US
Race for Age Groups: California
Race for Age Groups: Minnesota
United StatesProjected Race Compositions, 2025
State Projected Growth, 2000-2030Source: William Frey
Electoral Vote Gains, 2000-2030Source: William Frey
Electoral Vote Losses, 2000-2030Source: William Frey
Red and Blue States, 2004Source: William Frey
Projected Red State Advantage(assuming constant 2004 state victories)Source: William Frey
Red and Blue States, 2008
Projected Blue State Advantage(assuming constant 2008 state victories)
Useful Websiteswww.brookings.edu/metro
www.frey-demographer.org