Will there be enough water to grow enough food? Yes if…

Results of The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in AgricultureCo-Sponsors:

Setting the Scene

It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average

Investing in Irrigation

Irrigated Area

Food price index

World Bank lending for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

01960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species

Source: FAO data, graphic from SEI

The 850 million undernourished.

Nutrition, food security, income

Vulnerable to loss of water

Employment

Lower Food Prices

Dependent on Water for Agriculture?

There are few options outside

of agriculture for most rural poor

at present

Limits – reached or breached

• Closed basins – no water left for more development – Yellow River, Colorado, Amu/SyrDarya, Murray-Darling, Egypt’s Nile, Lerma-Chapala, Jordan, Gediz, Zayanda Rud, Indus, Cauvery, Krishna, Chao Phraya,….

• Groundwater overdraft –

• Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent

• Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production

Water Scarcity 2000

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

The CA framing question

How can water for food be developed and managed to…

• Help end poverty and hunger?• Ensure environmentally

sustainable water-agriculture practices?

• Find the balance between food and environmental security?

An Assessment Process

• Deals with a complex societal issue• Critical evaluation of information• Engages stakeholders throughout process• Large and diverse team of experts – over

700 people from around the world• Includes external reviews

• Cosponsors:

Chapter writing process

Coordinating Lead Author

(CLA)1-2

Lead Authors (LAs) 2-7 Contributing

Authors5-15

WRITING TEAM

CHAPTER NETWORK

CHAPTER TEAM

Network of Interested

People20-100

Reviewers7-20

2 reviews

Review Editors

Diversity: specialty, region, gender

Book Outline

• Summary for Decision Makers• Section 1- intro

– Introduction– Conceptual Framework– Section 2 –– Impacts & Challenges– Scenarios

• Section 3 – Cross-cutting– Water Productivity– Ecosystems– Policies & Institutions– Poverty

• Section 4 - Sectoral– Rainfed– Irrigated– Groundwater– Low Quality Water– Fisheries– Livestock– Rice– Land– Basins

Summary available now: www.iwmi.org/assessment

What of the future

Consumption of Animal Products

Per capita demand (kg/cap/yr) of animal products

USA

projectionsdata

20031961 2050

China

India

140

120

Mea

t co

nsum

ptio

n kg

/cap

/yr

100

80

60

40

20World

How much more cereals?

Food demand doubles over the next 50 because of diet and population

Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivty gains

Crop water consumption to 2050

Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA

Today

Without productivity improvement

Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles

% of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes

No water scarcityApproaching water scarcity

Water scarce

0% 60% 75% 100%

Water for food and feed today

Future water for food, CA scenario

Water for biofuels*

*Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030

Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI).

Green solution with blue impacts

CA Policy Agenda

• 8 points

A Range of Ag Water Management OptionsAgenda 1 – Change the way we think about water and food.

Agenda 2 – water and poverty

#2. Get water to poor people, use it better

Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options

are limited.

1. Broad investments for economic growth –works through multipliers

2. Targeted investments – directly impacts poor

Agenda 2 – water and poverty

Promising Pathways

Recognizing gender differentiated roles and impacts

• Ensure secure access (including water rights)• Targeted investments in pro-poor

technologies• Local management and informal irrigation• Multiple-use systems• Maintaining fisheries

Complementary public investment and actions are needed in the improvement of markets access and infrastructure

Policy Agenda #3: Increase Water Productivity

• Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop– To reduce future water needs– For food production increases

• Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop– For more income, growth

Agenda 3 – increase water productivity

Growth in yields

United States

China

Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Policy Agenda 4: Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture

• Rainfed areas, especially in the semi-arid tropics, have the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.

Agenda 4 – upgrade rainfed agriculture

Dependence on green and blue water 2000

Agenda 4 – upgrade rainfed agriculture

The link between poverty, hunger and water scarcity

Agenda 4 – upgrade rainfed agriculture

Key Actions to Upgrade Rainfed Systems

• Technology– water harvesting, – supplemental irrigation, – Field water conservation to reduce

evaporation. • Build human capacity -• Expand Policies to include upgrading

rainfed

#5: Adapt yesterday’s irrigation to tomorrow’s needs.

The days of rapid expansion of irrigation are over.

But there are plenty of reasons to invest:

#6: More ecosystem services from agriculture

Provisioning services - food and timber

Regulating services - flood control and storage, ground water recharge, water sharing

Cultural services – spiritual and cultural benefits; O&M as the glue of communities

Supporting services – biodiversity, nutrient cycling, that maintain the conditions for life on Earth

Lowland rice landscape: very rich biodiversity

Agenda 6 – more ecosystem services

Manage for Diversity

• Improve practices to enhance a range of ecosystem services beyond food and fiber

• Ensure the poor receive considerable benefits – payment for environmental services

• Manage for diversity, engineer for diversity (environmental flows)

• Informed negotiations

Policy Agenda #7: Reform the policy reform process

• Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and environmental degradation continue

- not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings

Agenda 7 – reform the reform process

Institutional reform

• Sectoral reforms needed – craft solutions suited to local needs – no blueprints

• Policies outside of water sector have huge influence on water resources –diets, trade, agricultural subsidies, energy

Do the right things

Today

CA Scenario

Practices like today

CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade

Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA

Agenda 8. Make difficult choices now, not later:

Choices:• Water storage for agriculture – water for

environment• Upstream – downstream• Productivity - Equity• This generation – the next one (GW decline) • Our consumption patterns and their impact

Thank You