Will LTE be the Death of the Landline

ACE School - 2012Ft. Worth, TexasMay 7, 2006

By Donn Swedenburgdswedenburg@rvwinc.comRVW, Inc.(402)564-2876

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 2

Introduction• Rapidly changing technology continues to

impact our industry.• The rapid emergence of Long Term

Evolution (LTE) 4G represents a formidable technology & one more technology “game changer”.

• Technology advancement has always altered the way people do things.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 3

Presentation Goals• Briefly examine industry statistics &

trends.

• Illustrate the rapid emergence of LTE.

• Identify current barriers to LTE deployment.

• Conclude with a summary of the issues and opportunities.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 4

By the numbers• Total landlines peaked in 2000.

– Approximately 188 million lines in 2000.– Since then, landlines have decreased 1 – 2%

yearly, the 2008 total landline count was approximately 123 million lines.

– From 2007 to 2009, the percentage of households with landline service only has declined from 23.8% to 14.9%.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 5

By the numbers

• Percentage of “wireless only” households has increased from 13.6% to 32% from 2007 to 2011.

• These numbers driven by wireless consumer preferences for convenience & mobility and the popularity of certain handset.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 6

Why LTE?

• The 3GPP LTE standards body moved the fastest.– Established profiles in many frequencies

including 700 MHz.– LTE supports much higher data rates than 3G

technologies.– The future is about broadband data.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 7

Industry LTE Acceptance

• In 2010, 3 of 10 wireless companies polled utilized LTE technology.

• In 2011, it reversed - 7 of 10 wireless companies polled utilized LTE technology in their networks.

– Today, data is king & speed is the driver.– 700 MHz spectrum auctioned in 2002 &

2009 had a compelling technology to utilize it.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 8

Industry LTE Acceptance• LTE’s all IP design facilitates higher speed

data rates– It is not unusual for speed tests of lightly

loaded 4G LTE to run at 10 – 15 Mbps downstream and 2 - 5 Mbps upstream.

– The latency target for LTE is 25 ms., but for existing network configurations, 75 - 100 ms. Is not unusual today

– Voice services still operating on the 3G network.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 9

Industry LTE Acceptance• Rapid industry LTE acceptance energized

the CPE manufacturing community.– Multiple devices already available including

PC dongles, MiFi type devices, fixed indoor and outdoor CPE.

– Multiple vendors like BandRich and Ericsson developing devices for various Band Classes.

– The VoLTE (Voice over LTE) standard and hardware not finalized yet, but on the way.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 10

The Weak Links• Wireless technology requires spectrum.

Wireless broadband requires lots of it.– The amount of spectrum available for

deployment is still somewhat limited.– The FCC has promised more spectrum for

auction, but nothing is scheduled.– Wireless broadband technology requires

broadband backhaul networks. – Proportions of various applications will affect

spectrum required and backhaul capcity.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 11

Conclusions

• Erosion of voice landlines will continue.– The voice network will not disappear, but will

undoubtedly evolve.• LTE will become a major force in

delivering telecommunications services– Given enough spectrum and backhaul

capacity, expect the wireless providers to begin competing in the fixed broadband market.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 12

Conclusions• The emergence of LTE as the technology

of choice in wireless can also be a revenue opportunity.– If you have spectrum, it could provide a

ground floor opportunity to enter the wireless market for either high mobility or fixed wireless services.

– National carriers will undoubtedly need your networks to provide backhaul.

5/8/12 ACE School - 2012 13

• References– PwC Communications, Changes & trends in

the North American wireless industry, March, 2012.

– FCC Wireline Competition Service Bureau, Trends in Telephone Service, 2010.

– CNN Money, Are landlines doomed?, April 10, 2012.