WILL GLOBALIZATION CHANGE EVERYTHING?Four big questions for social scientists:• Will global politics in the 20th c. follow the

rules of a new system?• Do the standard theories of IR still predict

state behavior?• Is globalization an extension of one of our

existing theories to explain state behavior?• Is globalization a phase linked to a certain

balance in the intl. system or is it a completely new system?

WHAT IS THE POST COLD-WAR SYSTEM?• The unipolar model: American liberal hegemony will endure• Faltering unipolarism is in transition to multi- or bi-polar

hegemony… Realism still works• The “clash of civilizations” model– Ugly constructivism• Another two-worlds model: peace and turmoil • The apolar model • The globalization (Marxist, liberal, or constructivist) model:– interconnectedness & interdependence & uniformity :

The world is small, the world is flat, and it increasingly looks and acts the same everywhere.

THOMAS FRIEDMAN’S VIEW OF GLOBALIZATION: IT IS A NEW SYSTEM AS MUCH AS WHAT WE SAW WITH THE ADVENT OF THE MODERN STATE SYSTEM?

• Defining technologies: Miniaturization, info. technology, the internet, & transportation: Globalization = exponential change in the materials that drive state and commercial power

• The fundamental rules: The “Washington Consensus”; The “Golden Straightjacket”

• Defining structure of power: Used to be states vs. states. Now it’s the interaction of states, markets, individuals & intl. institutions. But the firm is the dominant institution.

• Dominant ideas: Free market capitalism (Setzler: or state capitalism); Maybe democracy will have a central role… but maybe it will not

• Dominant culture: Americanization?• Demographic trends: Unprecedented movement, declining birth rates• The measurement of power: How you are connected to everyone else• The defining fear: Falling behind • What does all of this mean for America? Maybe it’s good!

BUT IS THE WORLD REALLY FLAT?Globalization is a choice? A little history and the current crisis Evidence that the world isn’t flat: Gehemawat’s 10% presumption • Domestic foreign invest vs. Foreign dir. investment• Portfolio investment, trade, patenting • People and phone call revenue• Even the internet is primarily domesticWhy is globalization slowing down?• Most states and most markets are domestic, and they have rooted interests in

keeping it that way (even the EU is an example ways to protect states)• Are intl. orgs a challenge to state power or an expression of it? I0s—save the WTO—

have pretty limited activity that is separate of what powerful states want them to do.

• The stakes of globalization will affect global power, so states will fight it just like they always have threats to their interest

• Domestic politics leads to fights against globalization; state capitalism and state responses to terrorism and intl. crime show that states can adapt to remain more relevant than ever before.

• The big fights ahead: The limits of energy & water, climate warming, how much human rights should trump sovereignty, & globalizing the entire economy rather than just what the powerful countries want globalized.