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Will Cellular beat the Internet?
David Lisbona
ISOC_IL 5th Annual Conference 4/3/01
Who’s winning the race?Internet and Cellular rapid rise from 1995/6Today
350M PC Internet users700M Mobile phone users25M Mobile Internet users
Of which 20M in Japan
How the Japs won with I-mode
Content…content…contentFlat rate + premium service pricing for end-usersBilling via Mobile OperatorLow equipment costs also for dataLightweight handsets with larger screens, color, packet data,Java, MP3 cameras
Mobile Internet in the West
WAP disappointsFew handsets, poor content, mismarketing, slow, poor user experience
Waiting for GPRSAnother disappointment? Max 20kbpsNetheads vs. Bellheads
3G will take longer and be slower– 40/64kbpsSMS messaging huge success
But starting to flatten out
Mobile TrendsJava starting to enter phonesPDA-phone convergence
As PDA’s go down market
Location Infrastructure and ServersBluetoothMachine-to-Machine (M2M)Handset add-ons
Radios, MP3 players, Cameras, GPS
The Mobile Market
Everyone’s got a (first) phoneNew user market saturation approaching
Handsets become replacement marketNeed new features, benefits
Mobile operators fight for users/revenueNeed differentiated servicesPrices for voice calls dropNeed new sources of revenue
The Marketer’s dreamWireless will follow Wireline pattern
Voice
Data
Rollout TimelinesNow – limited HSCSD (28.8 kbps) deployment 2001 First W-CDMA network in Japan2002 – widespread GPRS (needs handsets and backbone IP network2003 EDGE , EGPRS2004-2007 3G launch in Europe, USA
PC Internet vs. CellularLarge color screen, Full keyboard
Small mono screen, numeric keypad
Services are free You pay for services
Bandwidth is cheaper
Greater, variable, opportunity cost
You’ve got location
Sometimes on Always on…you
M-Internet: The Challenges
How to maintain growthWhat services will subscribers pay for?Can handset manufacturers keep up?Can mobile operators package and market data services?Can “walled gardens” succeed?What’s in it for content providers?
