Will and skill to find and produce new petroleum Will and skill to...Will and skill to find and produce new petroleum by high quality data sampling during the exploration and delineation

www.lundin-norway.no

6-8 years later: Harvest and learn until the reservoirs are produced

Drill, core and test

Find and produce new oil: •  Existing and new play concepts •  Yearly balanced drilling portfolio •  Clustered portfolio :

•  Efficient exploration •  Harvest on own breakthroughs •  Generic themes: Inverted highs •  Increased cost efficiency

•  Continuous better practice •  Afford to have good ideas

Will and skill to find and produce new petroleum by high quality data sampling during the exploration and delineation Hans Chr Rønnevik


Stability is obtained by will and skill to change; ie learning 1.  Thoughts are instant, thinking takes time (self-referencing). 2.  Facts are the experienced parts of the truth. 3.  The truth must contain all facts, but not be constrained by lack of facts. 4.  What is the likelihood of having experienced the truth based on facts? 5.  The truth is so large that everybody can see a part of it but nobody the whole. 6.  Keep on unfolding reality by interacting with it (David Bohm).

-  always -  usually -  general -  by and large -  more often than not -  half the time -  often -  sometimes -  occasionally -  been known to happen -  never -  cannot be true

Psuccess

Front Activity/time

1.0 -

0.5 -

0.0 -

time

Grow

th'

Fron

t'

Value for tomorrow

Limited value for tomorrow


New play types on NCS from 2003:

Barents Sea: 6 North Sea: 9+ Norwegian S: 1

65Darcy

Exploration must be balanced and driven by skilled visions Fueled by breakthroughs and predicted to come to halt at frequent intervals

70.5

89.3

NCS

True words are not beautiful, beautiful words are not true True words are not beautiful, beautiful words are not true


Exploration wells versus operators and oil prices


Revitalization of NCS since 2000

04.05.15 Guidelines 5


1.' 2.' 3.' 4.'Opening Strategic

exploration Barents Sea project

Increased Diversity

Breakthroughs take time and then become instantly obvious to all


J Sverdrup in 2007 post E Grieg: 0,45

2004 E Grieg: 0,38 Why not a success?

J Sverdrup pre E Grieg

Probability evaluations are related to will, skill and context Probability assessments:

P suksess -  always

-  usually

-  general

-  by and large

-  more than not

-  half the time

-  often

-  sometimes

-  occasionally

-  has happened

-  never

-  impossible

Mat

ure

•  Possibilities are created by seeing new relations between the factors

•  Stochastic modelling of independent parameters create a paradox: decreasing knowledge with increased diversity of data

•  Modelling is a tool to be used in a context of correct geological conceptual thinking as input

•  Understanding is related to the simplifications leading to numbers (exformation process)


Distribution for Kneler Oil Column

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Alvheim STOOIP

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

50 120 190 260 330

Screening model: Area * Oil column = Stooip 96 mill Sm3

No extra wells Kneler well Boa well Kameleon-East well

Kameleon Boa

Kneler Gekko

Hamsun Kobra

East Kameleon Heimdal field

5 km

New truths are created beyond 2 standard deviations Logic truths are tautological and ambiguous

Heimdal

AVO “gas” anomalies Result

Alvheim Field: Gas satellites that was a major oil field Sold as gas satellites by NH and bought as such by Marathon

Alvheim Field: Cluster of 5 discoveries

And out of a concept; A FPSO delayed 1 year Marginal economy at 17 USD/bbl However: First cargo at 140 USD/bbl (2008)


Knowleding is action and change Generation of consciousness (will): •  Possibility analysis are influenced by the time spirit •  New knowledge is created:

•  beyond 2 standard deviations •  by breakthroughs •  by actions rather than predictions

•  Concepts must contain, but not be constrained by the facts •  Efficient learning attack uncertainties, not certainties •  New awareness relates to diversity and not more of the same •  Modeling is no substitute for thinking •  Exploration reviews must be open for the implicit

Data, tools and methods (skill): •  Geophysics is being developed towards broadband •  Drilling, coring and sidesteps are keys to increased knowledge •  Coring through hiatuses •  Continuous learning on all parameters during operations •  Continuous processing and analysis during drilling •  DST’s to understand continuity •  Flexibility to adapt to reality during operations

Basis for success : •  Learned to learn •  Awareness of the tacit •  Expansion of context and details •  Awareness of better practice

Data acquisition: •  Online diverse fact-based knowledging

by the people that did the prognosis

•  Acquire data when possible

•  Full logging suite mobilized and use determined by well results

•  “Cost benefit analysis”; The value loss of doing nothing is unfolded in the long run:

EG,JS,G and A could have been found 30-40 years ago •  Fact based internal and partner

dialogues to adapt to reality during operations and before TD;

•  Test and side-track ?

•  Active transfer of generic knowledge between core areas through internal dialogue


Exploration of inverted highs relate to focused petroleum migration Models will always be different from reality

Basement((

1940150'm'MSL'

Hypothesis: Saturated system with 40-50 m oil leg Results: Under saturated and saturated oil

1940 m MSL

1922-35 m MSL

1950 m MSL 1900'm'MSL'

PL'338'

PL'359' PL'410'

PL265'

PL'501'


New reservoirs and hiatuses have been cored

Secured follow up acreage: Data strategy:

Cored through hiatuses Tested for continuity

Generic learning: Ongoing oil migration

Luno'2'16/4%6&

16/1%8&&&&&&&&16/1%13&&&&&&&&&16/1%15&&

16/2%11&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&16/3%5&&&&&&&16/3%7&&&&&&&&&&&

Edvard'Grieg' Johan'Sverdrup'

Luno'2'

BCU

BJU

BCU Base Volg MJU

16/1%14& 16/1%12&


Late structure formation demonstrate late and ongoing oil filling

BCU depth Map at 55 mill yrs

55

27

80C

Age

Depth (m

)

Late charge

16/2-6 16/1-8 16/1-8 16/2-6

Eocene structuration Late Miocene

structuration

N N N

BCU depth Map at 1.5 mill yrs BCU depth Map at 27 mill yrs Base Pleistocene/ Pliocene Top Utsira


Define a broad context in time and space(2006)

Johan Sverdrup olje boble punkt; 62-69 bar

Pleistocene/Pliocene Top Utsira sand

JS Bubble point 62-69 bar


Gas samples show ongoing migration

14

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0d13C-methane (‰)

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

C1/C

2-C4 Thermal

Microbial

MarineTerrestrial

M

n gi

x

i

Taken from Luckge et al. (2002) Org. Geochem. 33(8) pp.933-943

Wetness versus d13C-Methane Diagram

Asset01V01Lok 1ALok 1BLok 2Lok 9

Lok 2 Lok 1A & 1B

Lok 9

01V01

Lok 2 Lok 1A & 1B

01V01

Lok 9

Secondary Gas derived from biodegradation of oil

Biogenic Gas

Thermogenic Gas


The Edvard Grieg inlier basin prospect was set in total context

BCU map in 16/1-8 discovery report in 2008

Petrel model of the Luno prospect in APA 2004 application


Coring unfolded the Edvard Grieg discovery in 16/1-8 The well was temporarily suspended for later successful test

Logs read 40% shale in 100% sand

Chalk

Reservoir


Associative fact based communication

16/1-8 : Photos from core catcher from base of core 1 made a difference

16/3-8 : Photo from core chip


On line calibration of logs by mineralogy/chemistry XRD


The test of the second well; 16/1-10 was the key to E.G. PDO

net

1B

1A

Model based on well data

Model based on test

2m good sand

w/ K > 1000 mD

50m excellent sand w/ K>2000mD

1B

1A

Measured bottom hole pressure

Log-log plot of main buildup

Conglomeratic

sandstone 10-50mD

Conglomerate 0-5 mD

•  Test results: Improved k*h away from well •  OBC seismic in line with predicted in the test •  50 m 10D reservoir proved by well 16/1-13

16/1-10

3D OBC data

16/1-13 Porosity 30%

Perm: 12 Darcy

16/1-23S


Porosity 30%

Perm: 12 Darcy

16/1-13 16/1-10 16/1-8 16/1-15 16/1-8

16/1118'

16/1-18

16/1,14(

16/1,A,11(

16/1,(23(

Hutton: “The present is the key to the past” and the past the key to the present: •  Walter’s law within the constrains of Wheeler sequence diagrams •  Facies are not related to age(

Models must be based on geological concepts and laws


Producer 750 m

Reality is deterministic 16/1-23S (planned) 16/1-18 16/1-10 16/1-13

16/1-23S


Unfolding of reservoirs with cores in pilot production wells

04.05.15 Presentation name 22

1.   Core better continuity than logs

2.   Core plugs: higher porosity than logs

30 20 10 Porosity


Project

PDO Explore Explore Strategy Decision

Produce Explore Explore Delineate

Continuity and hands on experience from all phases and disciplines within 10 meters

20

24 16

43

30

Geophysics

Production 2 4

0

Paleo 30 Sedimentology 30/14/15

Processing

Petrophysic

Associative dialogue on maximum parameters

Knowledging by active memories, right questions and answers


2D Benchmark Line

Edvard Grieg Discovery Original

BroadSeis

IsoMetrix

Edvard Grieg Discovery

Large fields need and can pay for step change technology

Isometric


The POS of the Avaldsnes prospect became 45% after 16/1-8

BCU map from 16/1-8 discovery report in 2008


2006'

16/2-6

The well 16/2-6 in 2010 was located to learn fast

1.  The first 22 m reservoir cores defined the uncertainties that have been unfolded by 22 +7 delineation wells in 2011- 14 2.  All wells have given surprises and been necessary. The last two wells 16/3-8 and 16/2-19,9A changed the drainage strategy.

Facies analogue to Johan Sverdrup Volgian sand North Bretagne, scale 1:2

19 m oil in 22 m Jurassic


Deep mud invasion in most wells deteriorate log interpretation


Invasion up to +5m

Oil saturation increase from ~0.7 to ~0.9

Sh under estimation of 10% •  No mud cake •  No standard invasion profile •  Conductive minerals •  New procedures necessary in

constructing CPI

Multi Darcy sand do not have transition zone 40 m + above OWC


The Avaldsnes/JS discovery pre delineation (16/3-4 spud may 2011)

Approx location 16/3-4

A A’ Approx location 16/2-7


2. and 3. delineation wells 16/3-4 and 16/3-4A on JS: Rapid shallow marine local derived transgressive sand over weathered loose impermeable basement


Adapt to reality by online processing during drilling (4th well in June 2011)

Base Triassic


Base Jurassic

Local correction confirmed by sidetrack (6th well in August 2011) Post depositional Lower Cretaceous faulting of epeirogenic Volgian and Lower Jurassic basins

17 m to low On prog

16/2-7 and 7A

Base Volgian =BMJU


DST’s proved commerciality by PI and extent in the first 2 wells

PI: 460 Sm3 /d/bar

PI: 810 Sm3 /d/bar

100-400 mill bbls

400-700 mill bbls


Johan Sverdrup Field reserves: 1.7-3.0 billion bbls oil

16/2-6

Volgian Pre Volgian

Volgian

16/2-6 Discovery well in 2010

16/2-11

Unfolded by big view, coring, advanced logging, testing, and 3D broadband seismic


Lundin wells: 1.  Skalle: 3 gas discoveries 2.  Juksa: Oil traces 3.  Gohta: Oil discovery in 2013 4.  Alta: 2014 5.  Gohta 2: 2014 Partner wells: 1.  Salinas: 2 gas discoveries 2.  Langlitinden: small oil discovery


Loppa High: Strategic outlook area 1.  Play concepts were created in the 70’s, tested

in the 80’s and successfully proven from 2011 and onwards.

2.  The exploration in the late 80’s was elephant hunting focused on size:

To late the oil has leaked out under the ice. Only residual oil remains

3.  The Barents Sea project recommended : –  3D seismic and coring –  Large flexible licenses with right to

follow up acreage 4.  Increased diversity of experienced new

companies was necessary

04.05.15 35

Upper Jurassic

±

20 km

?

?

Lower-Middle Triassic

Upper Permian

Lwr. Triassic gas mature

Johan Castberg

Gohta

Alta Salina


Gas flare from sea bottom and anomalies (Flares demonstrate that there are something going on)

? ?

Loppa High

North

Skrugard

Salina

7120/113'

Shallow gas from seismic

Gas bubbles

Bacterial mats Mapping with AUVs ROV inspection and

sampling

Collecting carbonate crust

Multibeam echosounder bathymetry

Gohta

Alta

Gas anomalies from deep to shallow


Old concepts in new 3D seismic; Conceptual models Stochastic models Deterministic models

•  Sequence boundary maps are filtered information •  Migration in the piping not at the sequence boundary •  Quantification is simplification •  Knowledge is understanding the simplifications

Skrugard/Havis

Salina

Bjørnøya((Basin(

Tromsø(Basin(

Hammerfest(Basin(

Snøhvit Juksa

Skalle

Gohta


Loppa High: Base Triassic erosional unconformity

0ms

Folded basement

Postrift Carbonates

Dolinas

Ugle

Falk

Ørn

Røye

Ørn

Truncation surface with karstification

Paleo dolinas and river systems

Røye/Isbjørn Undiff

Kobbe Klappmyss

Falk Basement

A A´

Karst or sink hole (arrow) from the Mount fortet, Spitsbergen. The sink hole has been generated by carbonate dissolution during uplift and exposure to acid rain water. Photo: Lars Stemmerik


Gohta discovery in 2013

Recoverable resources after first well: 10 -23 million Sm3 oil 8 -15 billion Sm3 gas 2014 activity : •  Gohta 2. well proved reservoir continuity •  Disappointing reservoir in the oil zone •  Good test in the gas zone •  ((

Gotha well 2 Gotha well 1

Gohta1 Reinrose


~0.35 g/cc

0.7 g/cc

1.11 g/cc

2365 TVDSS OWC

2290 TVDSS GOC

OWC(

OWC(

JS(analogue( Svalbard(

CORE

DST

CORE

Various measurements at same depth Radial flow Radial flow

Multi pore system in carbonates: 1 intra-, 2 intergranular, 3 vugs, 4 dolomitization and 5 fractures

Cores to lab 1 day after for ½ price of by boat


Top Permian

Alta well: investigating potential up dip of Senilix Senilix well

Base Snadd MFS

South North


Alta-1

GOC

OWC

Oil leg and a gas cap in carbonates

Top Ladinian

Top L. Carnian

Alta 1, Post drill

Probe in gas – probe in oil

0.69 g/cc

0.2 g/cc

1.1 g/cc

Probe in HC – Saturn in water

FWL

GOC:


Carbonate reservoirs are heterogenic and factual data demanding

Sonic travel time

Sonic Amplitude

Res dynamic

Res static

FMI

1.  Multiple porosity systems: 5 interacting porosity systems observed

2.  Mineralogy to understand depositional environment, porosity and resistivity calculations

XRF, XRD, SEM used routinely

Sonic travel time

Sonic Amplitude

Res dynamic

Res static

FMI

Alta; Recoverable Resources

Oil;13-50 mill Sm3 Gas; 5-17 billion Sm3

DST: Oil rate: ~518 Sm3/d (36/64" fixed choke) (1.4 bar draw down PI: 350)

GOR: ~94 Sm3/Sm3


50 km

Study area

Bridging the knowledge gap since 2007 Continued the NPD mapping from1976-79 by modern tools. Storage in Mareano to avoid black hole storage

Facts&&closes&the&knowledge&gap&and&the&need&for&the&&precau4onary&principle&&&&&&

Study area


Pockmarks probably from early post glacial fluid flow

A

B

A B 0 ms

10 ms

506 ms

507 ms

508 ms

509 ms

510 ms

511 ms Diameter 100-200m

Depth 10-15m

Pipestone from center of large pockmark

Diameter 10-30m Depth 2-3m

Sub bottom profiler

Sub bottom profiler Hugin Side scan sonar

Hugin photo inside small pockmark

Multibeam bathymetry

Stone

Pock mark

Associative knowledging 1.  Ice flow 2.  Ice berg scouring 3.  De-glaciation fluid escape


A

B

A B 0 ms

10 ms

Large Pockmarks

Diameter 100-200m

46

200 m

Discovery well Alta 1

Outline of Alta

Discovery

Carbonate pipestone from mega pockmark

Alta sea bed mapping


Seabottom as it is

1m

1m

2.000.000

HUGIN

AUV pictures

ROV

Trawl marks


The benthos ecosystem


www.lundin-norway.no 49

Awareness principles towards progress: 1.  Thoughts are instant, thinking takes time (self-

referencing). 2.  The truth is so large that everybody can see a part of

it but nobody the whole 3.  Expansion of details and scope 4.  Facts are the experienced parts of the truth. 5.  Keep on unfolding reality by interacting with it

(David Bohm). 6.  The holistic principle: See the forest in the seed 7.  The incompleteness theorem; The truth can not be

described in a finite net (Gødel)

Find the way (see the possibilities) Lead from the deck

New found lands

Conclusions: The future is created by visions, actions and diversity in an ever changing context In unfolding reality the decision makers must be on deck Reality is deterministic not stochastic Actions are the basis for learning The same natural laws governs for all subsurface phases

The god made truths are unfolded by diversity and not by majority or authority

Documents

Will and skill to find and produce new petroleum Will and skill to...Will and skill to find and produce new petroleum by high quality data sampling during the exploration and delineation