Wider ContextWider ContextSome Key IssuesSome Key Issues

Demography

Differential Performance

‘The Gap’

Demography – projected Demography – projected trends trends

2001 2010 2020 2040

11-18 population

212,541 195,086 172,868 158,058

% decrease

0 8 19 26

Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a fifth by 2020

Secondary:Grammar RatiosSecondary:Grammar Ratios

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025% Secondary

59 56 51 50 49

% Grammar

41 44 49 50 51

By 2020 grammar and secondary ratio will be 50:50

Impact on Secondary SchoolsImpact on Secondary Schools

Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations, rationalisation

Ability mix within schools

Impact will be greater in particular areas

Impact on Grammar SchoolsImpact on Grammar SchoolsAbility mix within schools In 16 Grammar Schools, 95% or more of

admissions were As or B1s in September 2002 8% of admissions to grammar schools are Cs or

Ds at present 21 grammar schools with 10% admissions with

Cs and Ds in Transfer Test 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds

admitted

GCSE Point Scores for All PupilsGCSE Point Scores for All Pupils

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

% o

f Pup

ils

Point Score

GCSE Point Scores for Secondary GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupilsand Grammar Pupils

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

% o

f Pup

ils

Point Score

Secondary Grammar

Average GCSE Point Scores Average GCSE Point Scores

Male Female All Pupils

Northern Ireland

34.0 41.6 37.7

England 37.4 42.9 40.1

% of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals% of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals

Catholic Managed

Other Managed

Overall

Grammar 11.7 3.7 7.3

Secondary 37.0 22.3 29.4

5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School LeaversSchool Leavers

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Non-FSM FSM