Wichita State University Overview of Composite Material ...webfiles.wichita.edu/cedbr/WIRED_comp_ov_5_14_08.pdf · Wichita State University Overview of Composite Material Trends in

NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR AVIATION RESEARCH

Wichita State University

Overview of Composite Material Trends in Aviation Manufacturing

John TomblinTel: 316-978-5234

Email: [email protected]

National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR)National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR)

WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY



The aviation industry is a major contributor to the economic vitality of Kansas and has the potential for significant growth as a national center for aerospace innovation.

Hawker BeechcraftHawker Beechcraft SpiritSpirit

CessnaCessna BombardierBombardier

BoeingBoeing



Kansas Products



1.3 1.3

2.3 2.2

3.5

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Direct Payroll in Billions $$

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Aviation Economic Impact in Kansas

•• 36,500 direct jobs with a payroll of approx. $2.4 billion36,500 direct jobs with a payroll of approx. $2.4 billion•• Each aviation job generates an additional 2.9 jobs Each aviation job generates an additional 2.9 jobs •• Kansas delivers more than 50% of all U.S. general aviation aircrKansas delivers more than 50% of all U.S. general aviation aircraft aft

(1,263 aircraft valued at $3.7 Billion in 2002)(1,263 aircraft valued at $3.7 Billion in 2002)

Total Economic ImpactTotal Economic ImpactHistorical Projected

Kansas Aerospace Industry Forecast, for Kansas, Inc. – May 2006

•• 2016 State tax revenues 2016 State tax revenues forecast: forecast:

16% of total state payroll 16% of total state payroll $1.3B in state tax revenue$1.3B in state tax revenue

•• Wages expected to skyrocket in Wages expected to skyrocket in 10 years 10 years –– $5.5 Billion/Year$5.5 Billion/Year



Composite Material Definition• Macroscopic combination of two or more distinct

materials having a recognizable interface between them



Fiber Reinforced Composite Types (polymer matrix based)

Aerospace CompositesAerospace Composites


Wichita State UniversityA Long History in Military & Space Applications



Existing State-of-the-Art in Composite Aircraft Structures



Barriers to Expanded Application



Boeing 787 Composite UsageNearly all of the exterior surfaces are composites, except the leading edges of the

wings, the stabilizers, and the engine pylons

Carbon laminateCarbon sandwichFiberglassAluminumAluminum/steel/titanium

Composites50%

Titanium15%

Other5%Steel

10%

Aluminum20%



Boeing's Plastic Dream MachineExcerpts from BusinessWeek, JUNE 20, 2005 and Boeing News Releases

• Boeing thinks its new 787 jet, built mostly of plastic composites, could remold the airline industry.

• Jets made of composites require far fewer parts, so there's less to bolt together.

• …since these plastics weigh less than aluminum, the planes should burn less fuel. … together with improved engines, 20% drop in fuel costs.

• …improve passenger comfort. The superior strength of the composite fuselage will allow the passenger cabin to withstand higher pressurization --equal to the air pressure at an altitude of 6,000 feet instead of the usual 8,000 feet.

• …it's easier to control cabin temperature, humidity, and ventilation.• …engineers are discovering that their composites are even tougher than they

initially imagined.… maintenance costs will be 30% lower than for aluminum planes. …corrosion and fatigue benefits are going to be astounding.



Raytheon’s Premier I – All Composite Fuselage



Cirrus Design Corporation, Duluth, MN



Adam Aircraft

Cirrus Lancair Starship

Citation X

Premier I

Scaled Composites

Bell Helicopter

Boeing 777 Boeing 737

Dreamliner

Boeing 747

Toyota Aircraft

The Institute’s Composite Family

SpaceshipOne

Javelin

Horizon

Global Hawk

X45 UCAS

Boeing 767

Predator



Informational Brief

www.AeroStrategy.com

• AeroStrategy is a consulting firm devoted to aviation and aerospace sectors with offices in Ann Arbor and Amersham, U.K.

• A white paper highlighting trends in the aerospace supply chain can be downloaded at http://www.aerostrategy.com/commentary.cgi

• To learn more about AeroStrategy please contact:Kevin Michaels, PrincipalPh: (734) [email protected]

Hal Chrisman, PrincipalPh: (734) [email protected]



Aerospace Comprises Approximately 15% Of The $50B Global Composites Industry

Sources: JEC composites, European composite directory and report 2002 –2003; aerospace figures from AeroStrategy

Aerospace excludes launch vehicles and satellites

Values are for end-use products

• The global composites industry, “notoriously difficult” to estimate, is worth $50B in 2004 according to JEC composites

• The automotive industry is the largest segment and is worth in excess of $12B

• Building and construction is a fast-growing segment and is now worth $10B annually

• Aerospace is the third largest segment…and a major consumer of carbon fiber given its focus on performance

• Wind power is emerging as a significant market and is now worth nearly $1B

2004 Global Composites Market ($50 B)

Automotive23%

Building &Construction

21%

Aerospace15%

Sports11%

Wind Power2%

Other28%

AppliancesConsumerElectrical MedicalMarine



The Aerospace Composites Market Is Worth $7.3B In 2006

2006 Aerospace Composites Market Total = $7.3 B

$3.3 B

$1.6 B

$0.6 B

$1.8 B

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Air TransportProduction

Military AircraftProduction

Business AviationProduction

MRO Services(all markets)

• Demand for aerospace composites (finished products only) is $7.3B in 2006

• Air transport production is the largest market segment for composites at $3.3B

• Maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services for composites accounts for nearly one-quarter of market value

Source: AeroStrategyNotes: excludes UAVs, figures in 2006 dollars


Wichita State UniversityThe Use Of Composites In Modern Aircraft Designs Is Accelerating…

Sources: Teal Group, Boeing, Airbus, Composite Market Reports

• Military aircraft designs were early adopters of composites

– Performance oriented– Less cost sensitive– Unique requirements (e.g.

radar signature suppression)

• The latest commercial designs, led by the B787, A380, and A350 XWB, feature significantly greater composite content

• Airbus recently announced that it has added a hybrid composite/metal fuselage to the A350XWB design

Aircraft Composite Content For Select Airframes% of structural weight

A380RAFALE

F/A-18E/F

F/A-22

EUROFIGHTER

777

GRIPEN

MD-11

A330/A340

B-2

A320

V-22

747-400

A300-600

F/A-18C/DA310

MD-80 737-300757767

A350 XWB (latest)787

F-35 JSFA400M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Next GenerationNarrowbody Transport

(expected ~2015)

*Military Aircraft in Blue

A350 (mid 2006)



…And Will Underpin A Quadrupling Of The Aerospace Composites Market Over The Next 20 Years

Source: AeroStrategyNotes: excludes UAVs, figures in 2006 dollars

Aerospace Composite Market Forecast ($B)2006 - 2026

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006 2011 2016 2026

MRO Services (all markets)

Business Aviation Production

Military Aircraft Production

Air Transport Production

Next generation narrow body designs expected to be major catalysts



Why The Shift?


A380RAFALE

F/A-18E/F

F/A-22

EUROFIGHTER

777

GRIPEN

MD-11

A330/A340

B-2

A320

V-22

747-400

A300-600

F/A-18C/DA310

MD-80 737-300757767


F-35 JSFA400M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


(expected ~2015)


A350 (mid 2006)


A380RAFALE

F/A-18E/F

F/A-22

EUROFIGHTER

777

GRIPEN

MD-11

A330/A340

B-2

A320

V-22

747-400

A300-600

F/A-18C/DA310

MD-80 737-300757767


F-35 JSFA400M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


(expected ~2015)


A350 (mid 2006)


A380RAFALE

F/A-18E/F

F/A-22

EUROFIGHTER

777

GRIPEN

MD-11

A330/A340

B-2

A320

V-22

747-400

A300-600

F/A-18C/DA310

MD-80 737-300757767


F-35 JSFA400M

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


(expected ~2015)


A350 (mid 2006)

Fuel & EmissionReduction

Falling ProductionCost

Push To ReduceMaintenance Cost

Improved KnowledgeBase (I.e. Better Design)

Emergence Of SophisticatedSupply-Base (E.g. Spirit, GKN)



Composites Raw Material Suppliers Have Consolidated In Recent Years

Boeing

BAe

DASA

General Dynamics Martin Marietta Lockheed

Douglas

McDonnell Airbus

BASF

ICI FiberiteAmerican Cyanamid

Boeing Airbus

Hercules

BP DuPontHercules Hexcel

Cytec

Hexcel TorayCytec

1980’s Today

BASF Amaco Toho Toray Akzo Toray TohoHexcel Cytec

Materials (Prepreg)

OEMs

Fiber

Culver City

Boeing

BAe

DASA

General Dynamics Martin Marietta Lockheed

Douglas

McDonnell Airbus

BASF

ICI FiberiteAmerican Cyanamid

Boeing Airbus

Hercules

BP DuPontHercules Hexcel

Cytec

Hexcel Toray

Cytec

Hexcel TorayCytec

1980’s Today

BASF Amaco Toho Toray Akzo Toray TohoHexcel Cytec Toray TohoHexcel Cytec

Materials (Prepreg)

OEMs

Fiber

Culver City

Commercial Aircraft OEM – Composite Supplier Relationships

Source: Cytec

Note: Tier I and Tier II suppliers not depicted



Aircraft And Engine OEMs Are Increasingly Focused OnSystem Integration

Source: AeroStrategy analysis

Aircraft Production Supply Chain

Aircraft And Engine

OEM Final Assembly

Aircraft And Engine

OEM Final Assembly

Aircraft / Engine OEM

Internal Production

Aircraft / Engine OEM

Internal Production

Tier 1 SuppliersTier 1 SuppliersTier 2 SuppliersTier 3 SuppliersTier 2 SuppliersTier 3 Suppliers

Raw Material Suppliers


• More focused on systems integration• Less internal production capability• Desire to work with a smaller number of Tier 1 primes• Significantly reduce direct dealings with Tier 2 and Tier 3

suppliers



Tier 1 Suppliers Have Significant Growth Opportunities



Aircraft And Engine OEM

Final Assembly


Final Assembly

Aircraft / Engine OEM Internal

Production


Production

Tier 1 Suppliers

Tier 1 Suppliers

Tier 2 SuppliersTier 3 SuppliersTier 2 SuppliersTier 3 Suppliers



• Taking on more integration and supply chain management activities formerly performed by OEMs

• Leveraging aircraft OEM aerostructures outsourcing – “available” market growing faster than overall market growth

• Entering more risk sharing partnerships• Facing consolidation (e.g. Spirit – BAE Aerostructures, GKN – Teleflex Aerospace

Manufacturing Group)• Struggling with surging demand, rising raw material costs, and shifting material

content



Tier 2 And 3 Suppliers Face Significant Challenges




Final Assembly


Final Assembly


Production


Production

Tier 1 SuppliersTier 1 SuppliersTier 2 & Tier 3

SuppliersTier 2 & Tier 3

SuppliersRaw Material

SuppliersRaw Material

Suppliers

• Shifting distribution channels: less direct dealings with OEMs; more with Tier 1 suppliers

• Vigorous competition from low labor cost suppliers• Struggling with surging demand and rising raw material costs• May face consolidated demand as Tier 1s consolidate• In the long run, must address shifting material content



North America• Wichita – Tulsa

• Salt Lake City

• South Carolina

Asia Pacific• Japan

Wichita Is One Of Several Aerospace Composite Clusters

Europe• Spain

• Italy

• U.K.

ansseC



The Shift To Composites Highlights Several Key Issues For Wichita

• To what extent will other aircraft OEMs – including business aviation – follow Boeing’s lead?

• What are the implications of the shift to composites for suppliers focused on metallic work?

• Are there enabling technologies or processes that can improve the competitiveness of metal structure suppliers?

• How significant is the opportunity in composite MRO services?

• What is required to strengthen the competitiveness of Wichita’s aerostructures/composites cluster?

Porter’s Sources of Locational Competitive Advantage

Source: Michael Porter, AeroStrategy analysis



SUMMARY - Why Composites?• Superior performance when compared to steel or aluminum (in

many applications)• Reduces weight• Reduces maintenance costs• Reduces or eliminates corrosion• Better fatigue resistance• Less thermal expansion• Enhanced properties via tailorable properties

– Mechanical– Electrical– Anisotropic vs. isotropic

• Reduces cost (?)COMPOSITES ENABLE THE ENGINEER

TO CUSTOMIZE STRUCTURE

Documents

Wichita State University Overview of Composite Material ...webfiles.wichita.edu/cedbr/WIRED_comp_ov_5_14_08.pdf · Wichita State University Overview of Composite Material Trends in