Upload
others
View
4
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Why we need a standardized internationally accepted resource classification system
for primary and secondary resources ---- opportunities and challenges.
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr. h.c. mult. Friedrich-W. Wellmer
retired President of the Federal Institute of Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR),
the Federal German Geological Survey, Hannover/Germany and
retired President of the Academy of Geosciences and Geotechnology.
Rohstoffentnahme - seit 1900 bis heute
Quelle: Krausmann et al. (2009): Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century,
Ecological Economics Vol. 68, Nr. 10, 2696-2705, Version 1.2 (August 2011).
www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/3133.htm
Weltbevölkerung - Entwicklung seit 1850 und Prognosen bis 2100
Quelle: D. Lam: Presentation Herrenhausen-Symp. 28.+ 29.11.2012:
"Already beyond? 40 years' limits to growth" , Hannover, VW Foundation.
(Source: Mew, M.C., Steiner, G., Geissler, B. Sustainability 2018, 10,1087)
Quelle: D. Ameling, Erzmetall, 53 (2000), Nr. 10, S. 598.
Entwicklung der Hochofenleistung 1861 bis 1993
Nutzinhalt:
Erzeugung:
August-Thyssen-Hütte
Duisburg
1960
1424 m³
2000 t / Tag
27,9
m
9 m
Thyssen Krupp Stahl AG
Duisburg, Schwelgern 2
1993
4769 m³
11900 t / Tag
14,9m
32,8
m
610 m³
400 t / Tag
Gutehoffnungshütte
Oberhausen
1910
4,2 m
23 m
Johannishütte
Duisburg
1861
0,9 m
15,3
m
64 m³
25 t / Tag
Production (Mio t Cu in ore mined)
2016: 20.343 mio t
1995: 9.985 mio t
1996: 10.949 mio t.
(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)
(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :
Raw Materials for Future Energy
Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin, New York
(Springer) in print.)
(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :
Raw Materials for Future Energy
Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin, New York
(Springer) in print.)
(Source: EC: Report on Critical Raw Materials and the Circular Economy, 16.1 2018-SWD (2018) 36 final)
(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)
(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)
Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:
1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )
2.) For by-products: statistical distribution
3.) Peak commodity
Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:
1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )
2.) For by-products: statistical distribution
3.) Peak commodity
So far only discussed for primary resources, but secondary resources
have to be included, too.
(Source: Frenzel et al. (2017), Resources Policy 52, p.327)
Plateau-phase
Pro
du
ction
Time
dmp = depletion midpoint
Life cycle curve „Hubbert-Curve“
(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :
Raw Materials for Future Energy
Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin,
New York (Springer) in print.)
(Quelle: Wellmer,F.-W.: Wie lange reichen unsere Rohstoffvorräte?– Was sind
Reserven und Ressourcen. Umweltwirtschaftsforum 22 (2014), s. 125-132)
Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:
1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )
2.) For by-products: statistical distribution
3.) Peak commodity
Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:
1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )
2.) For by-products: statistical distribution
3.) Peak commodity
The Growing of Reserves –
Example: Copper
35.4
37.4
Ratio
720 Mio t20.342 Mio t2016
195 Mio t5.219 Mio t1966
reserveproduction
Reserves
(Mio t Cu in
ore)
Production
(Mio t Cu in
ore)
The Growing of Reserves –
Example: Copper
35.4
37.4
Ratio
720 Mio t20.342 Mio t2016
195 Mio t5.219 Mio t1966
reserveproduction
Reserves
(Mio t Cu in
ore)
Production
(Mio t Cu in
ore)
Accumulated production 1966-2016 = 50 years: 554 Mio t
i.e. nearly 3x reserves 1966 !!!
Mine production Data sources: USGS, BGR database, 2009
*Before 1988, the USGS only classified
reserve base
Static life time of reserve base*
Static life time of reserves
Static life time – the reality
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
20
60
100
140
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mio
. t
yea
rs
Nickel
1960: 0.34 Mio. t
2008:
1.5 Mio. t
1987: 63 years 2008: 46 years
10
30
50
70
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
100
300
500
yea
rs1
.00
0 t Cobalt
1960: 14.734 t
2008: 63,783 t
1988: 125 years 2008: 111 years
4
8
12
16
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
20
40
60
80
1987: 39 years2008: 36 years
2008:
14.4 Mio. t
1960: 4.2 Mio. t
Copper
Mio
. t
yea
rs
Ratio Reserves /Production (Consumption 2016 (USGS-Data)
Aluminium (Bauxite) 107 Manganese 43
Coal 114 Nickel 35
Chromium 16 Phosphate 261
Cobalt 57 Potassium 110
Copper 37 Silver 21
Gold 18 Tin 17
Iron Ore 76 Tungsten 36
Lead 18 Zinc 18
%
100
75
50
25
86 %
Au 79 %
Ag
84 %
Cu 71 %
Zn
73 %
Pb
Metal Content of 10 % of Largest Deposits
Metal Contents
Perc
en
t in
Dep
osit
s L
arg
er
than
X-A
xis
Singer, D.A. (1995)
Ratio Reserves /Production (Consumption 2016 (USGS-Data)
Aluminium (Bauxite) 107 Manganese 43
Coal 114 Nickel 35
Chromium 16 Phosphate 261
Cobalt 57 Potassium 110
Copper 37 Silver 21
Gold 18 Tin 17
Iron Ore 76 Tungsten 36
Lead 18 Zinc 18
Conclusion re: Reserve/Consumption (Production)- Ratios
-- single values useless: only snapshot of a dynamicallydeveloping reserves/resources system
-- but very useful information in the time series !
(Source: ESYS-Analyse 2016:Rohstoffe für die Energieversorgung der Zukunft—Geologie--- Märkte--- Umwelteinflüsse)
(Source: ESYS-Analyse 2016:Rohstoffe für die Energieversorgung der Zukunft—Geologie--- Märkte--- Umwelteinflüsse)
(Source: Tilton, J. et al. (2018): Public policy and future mineral supplíes, Resources Policy.)
(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :Raw Materials for Future Energy Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin,New York (Springer) in print.)
Shortage
Price rise
Reaction through
Price incentives
Demand Side
• Thriftier consumption of materials
• Substitution
• New Technologies with totally
different raw material profile
Supply Side
• Primary Raw Materials (Exploration, Investment in new productions, Increase of recovery of raw material out of the deposits and in beneficiation/ metallurgy)
• Secondary Raw Materials (Improvement of Recycling, Use of lower grade scrap)
Supply and Demand in Balance again
Thriftier consumption of raw materials:
LED-Lamps – Reduction of
REE-requirements by 90%
Reaction according to the Feedback Control-Cycle of Mineral Supply -Example: Rare Earth-Elements (REE)
Technological substitution:
Induction motors
or (ferrit motors)
vs. Synchronous
Motors with
permanent
Magnets with
neodymium (Nd)
und
dysprosium (Dy)
(Source: ESYS-Analyse 2016:Rohstoffe für die Energieversorgung der Zukunft—Geologie--- Märkte--- Umwelteinflüsse)
(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)
Gs
am
tpro
du
kti
on
in
Mio
. t
Share Primary Production
Share Secondary Poduction
20
40
60
80
100
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
An
teil
an
de
r G
es
am
tpro
du
kti
on
in
%
Development of total Al-Production (Primary + Secondary Aluminium)
1960: 17 %
2009: 30 %
Prognosis 2020: 37 %
Quelle: International Aluminium Institute
(Deutsche Rohstoffagentur DERA /BGR)
We will always need both, primary and secondary resources
As to secondary rersources:
• 100% recycling thermodynamically impossible. There will always be losses.
• We have to take into account the lifetime of products in the economy.
We will always need both, primary and secondary resources
As to secondary resources :
• 100% recycling is thermodynamically impossible. There will always be losses.
• We have to take into account the lifetime of products in the economy.
Consumption
Life time
of products
Life timeof
products
Missing quantity for recyclingat time A
Time
Case 2
Case 1
A
We will always need both, primary and secondary resources
As to secondary resources:
• 100% recycling is thermodynamically impossible. There will always be losses.
• We have to consider the lifetime of products in the economy.
• The optimum of recycling, considering energy and environmental impact, is not 100%.
Platzhalter
Platzhalter
(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)
Consumer Resources
Consumer Resources
Common Denominator
Conclusion:
We need a standardized classification system for all sources
of raw material supply----primary and secondary resources----
to be able to monitor our future raw material supply.