Why Washington Rarely Works and Campaigns Never Stop

Change in the Electorate and the Elected:

Ron Elving / NPR

NASACT Conference

August 25, 2015

Chicago

Overview

What is Washington Doing Right Now?See You in September

How Did We Get Gridlock…Again?2016 Is Already Here

It’s All About the Money

What Is Washington Doing Right Now?

Nothing. They’re on vacation.37 days to next fiscal cliff

14 days until Congress returns

Congress On 5 Week VacationEven Though…

No appropriations bills have passed House bills hung up on Confederate flag

Senate in irons over riders, power struggleVeto threats complicate process

No agreement on tactics

Congress On 5 Week VacationEven Though…

Import-Export Bank charter lapsedwith renewal pending

Highway fund extended only to December 1

What’s Up in September?

A collision of fiscal deadlines as bad as any in 5 years Government runs out of funding Oct. 1 No appropriations bills passed as of now Time squeeze on 17 days in September

Vote on Iran Deal / Veto and Override Two Jewish High Holidays Visit of the Pope

What’s Up in September?

October 1 looms with multiple threats of shutdown Dems demand end to caps from 2011 sequester GOP demands end to funding for Planned Parenthood GOP demands end to Obama deportation orders GOP demands end to Obama EPA orders

And, Oh Yes…

Congress still needs to fund highways & transit beyond December 1

Leadership still wants to renew Export-Import Bank

Debt ceiling needs raising before default happens

One Good News Story: Decline of the Deficit (for now)

Annual federal deficit back down below $500 BAnd below 3% of GDP

(From $1.3 T and 8.7% in 2011)Now back to historic pattern levelsFederal debt service at low rates

Golden moment for entitlement reform, or…

So…How Did We Get Gridlock…Again?

In 2008 and 2012voters gave Democrats control of Washington

In 2010 and 2014 they gave it to GOPBoth parties are still in town,

each insisting it has a popular mandate to govern.

The 2014 Elections Were Smashing for GOP

R’s take Senate with 54-44-2 majorityNo Republican seats lost

House majority: biggest since 1920sFull control in 29 legislatures

Governors in 31 states

So None of These Goals Achieved

Repeal ObamacareLower individual/corporate tax rates

Reverse executive action on deportationsLimit abortion and gay marriage

Eliminate federal functionsAlter the arc of events overseas

But the Elections of 2014 Did Not Cancel 2012

Our national government is now chosen by two electoratesone that turns out every two years

and one that appears every four years.

The Presidential Electorate is Larger by Half (or more)

2004: 122 million votes cast2006: 81 million2008: 131 million votes cast2010: 87 million2012: 124 million votes cast2014: 78 million

The Components That GrowIn Presidential Years

• Younger• More Diverse

• Fewer Are Married• Less Educated /Affluent

• Less Conservative/ Republican

Why Can’t They Work Together?

Legitimate differences of philosophy

The Will of the People(just not the same ones)

The Partisan Zeitgeist

Many in both parties would rather see problems fester or even worsen

than take solutions from the other side…or even compromise with the other side.

Disappearing CenterWhen system worked it relied on

centrists (in both parties) as deal-makers and swing votes.

Without this lubricant, the machinery overheats, damages itself and

eventually breaks down

Where Have All the Centrists Gone?

in 2012 national elections 95% of House districtsvoted the same party

for President and the House…a dramatic increase since the 1980s

Where Have All the Centrists Gone?

Republicans now hold 221 of the 226 House districts

that Mitt Romney won in 2012

Democrats hold only 5

Where Have All the Centrists Gone?

As districts are drawn to bedeep red or deep blueparty nominations go

to the reddest and bluest. Once in office they stay partisan

to fend off any challenge in NEXT primary

Senate Also Susceptible

Not the Senate of OldFewer governors, astronauts and other heroes

More people elected from the Houseor from state legislatures

Most current senators = first elected in 2008 or since

Senate Also Susceptible

More states are votingfor two Dems or two GOP senators…And even the most senior incumbents

can be challenged in primaries. Even when they

survive the primary challenge they are never as safe again and they show it…

Media as Enablers of Divide

Average member

watches FOX or MSNBC

And reads National Review or The Nation

DailyKos or RedState.com

How Can This Go On?

We tell pollsters we do not like that kind of politician, but then we go to the polls and

vote for them year after year.

And that’s how you get a Congress with a Gallup approval rating under 20%

2016 Elections: GOP House Safe

Fortress redistricting undisturbed until 2020s

Democratic vote super-concentrated in cities

Suburbs/exurbs/rural areas increasingly GOP

Carter won >1700 counties, Obama <700)

Dem vote packed in fewer CDs

2016 Elections: Senate Control

GOP now has 54 seatsGOP has to defend 24 in 2016GOP seats include 6 in Blue/Purple StatesNH / PA / OH / FL / WI / ILDemocrats must defend only 10 seatsElectorate may look more like 2006/2012

2016: GOP’s Sweet Sixteen?

Early Phenomenon: Donald Trump

Likeliest to be on ticket: Jeb Bush

Scott WalkerMarco RubioJohn Kasich

Second Tier / Also Rans

Lindsay Graham

Rick Perry

Rick Santorum

Bobby Jindal

George Pataki

Jim Gilmore

Ted CruzRand Paul Chris ChristieBen Carson Carly FiorinaMike Huckabee

Lindsay Graham Rick Perry Rick Santorum Bobby Jindal George Pataki Jim Gilmore

Who Will Decide GOP Nominee?

Early money primary Polls (national and key states) Media (Fox & talk radio) Debates (fewer, later, matter more) Early primaries IA / NH / NV / SC The South (SEC primary)

2016 Democrats: One Question

Can Hillary right the ship?• Email travail

• Enthusiasm gap• Other campaign woes• “Third term of Obama”

• “Third term of Bill Clinton”

2016 Democrats Seek Alternatives

Bernie Sanders (Feel the Bern)Martin O’MalleyJames WebbLincoln Chafee(Joe Biden)(Al Gore)(Elizabeth Warren)

2016: It’s All About the Money

In 2016, total spending for federal offices will exceed $7 billion.

More than ever before will come from a select group of mega-donors.

2016: It’s All About the Money:Total Spending for Federal Office

2016: President & Congress $7 billion (projected)

2014: Midterm $4 billion

2012: President & Congress $6.3 billion

2010: Midterm $3.6 billion

2008: President & Congress $5.3 billion

2006: Midterm $2.8 billion

2004: President & Congress $4.1 billion

2016: It’s All About the Money

Big money goes to candidate-supporting PACsNot to the candidates / Jeb 11m to 108m ratio

Half this PAC money coming in donations of $1 million or more

Cruz campaign 95% from 5 donors

2016: It’s All About the Money

Candidate Campaign PACs

Bush 11.4m 108.5 mHRC 47 m 20 mCruz 14 m 38 mSanders 15 m 0

2016: It’s All About the Money

Financiers largely determine who runs.

Money determines who keeps running.

Ultimately, money may decide who wins.

Review

What is Washington Doing Right Now?See You in September

How Did We Get Gridlock…Again?2016 Is Already Here

It’s All About the Money