Why Transition Why Transition Studies?Studies?

Nordic-Baltic-Russian Network of Transition StudiesWorkshop 2006

Putting the Eastern European transitions into a wider perspective of regime change

Vello Pettai, Department of Political Science, University of Tartu

A: Australia, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, New-Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Great Britain, USA

B: Chile

C: Austria, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway

D: Argentina, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Hungary, Uruguay

E: East Germany, Poland, Portugal, SpainF: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

G: Botswana, Costa Rica, Gambia, Israel, Jamaica, Malaysia, Malta, Sri Lanka, Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela

H: Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, India, South-Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Turkey

I: Nigeria

J: Burma, Fidji, Ghana, Guyana, Indonesia, Lebanon

K: Bulgaria, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mongolia, Namibia, Nicaragua, Panama, Papua New-Guinea, Romania, Senegal

L: Haiti, Sudan, Suriname

Democracy’s Democracy’s Three WavesThree Waves

(Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, p. 14)

Democracy as Normative Democracy as Normative StandardStandard

• History is not ‘over’ (Fukuyama), but democracy (even if only electoral) is a central international measure of political legitimacy in our era– membership in international

organizations– conditionality for development aid– foreign policy priority: ‘regime change’

Political science is Political science is democracydemocracy

• Modern political science (e.g. ‘comparative politics’) is fundamentally concerned about democracy, its functioning and ultimately its fostering– even studies of non-democracies are just

that: ‘non-democracies’, i.e. defined in relation to democracy

– cultural, religious, historical essentialisms are not seen as plausible approaches to making sense of politics

FourFour educational & educational & research tasksresearch tasks

1) what is democracy vs. other regimes?– ‘regime theory’: conceptual framework

of regimes– static boundaries

2) how does democracy come about?– ‘regime transition theory’: causal models

of regime change– dynamic models – practical advice

FourFour educational & educational & research tasksresearch tasks

3) how to consolidate democracy?– types of consolidation– economic change– retrospective justice

4) how to compare post-communist change?

– what is special about Central and Eastern Europe?

1) Regime Theory1) Regime Theory

Democracy Authoritarianism TotalitarianismPost-

TotalitarianismSultanism

Pluralism

Ideology

Mobilization

Leadership

• Linz and Stepan (1996), Table 3.1

2a) Cycles of Regime 2a) Cycles of Regime TransitionTransition

young democracy

crisis-breakdown

non-democracy

liberalizationdemocratization

economic factors

international

influences

non-democratic

regime type

2b) Practical advice2b) Practical advice

young democracy

crisis-breakdown

non-democracy

liberalizationdemocratization

Opposition:-focus attn on illegitimacy-encourage disaffection, defections-cultivate generals-practice and preach non-violence-seize all chances to express oppo., including elections-develop contacts with outside world-promote unity among oppo.-be prepared quickly to fill vacuum

Soft-liners:-maintain control over regime-surprise with concessions-get security services to agree to nego. principle-enhance stature and position of preferred oppo. leader-establish confidential and reliable back-channels to oppo.-secure rights for oppo. in future regime

Regime & Opposition:-transition will not last: seize the opportunity-the future of both sides depends on agreement-resist more hard-line or extreme elements-your agreement will be the only alternative; hardliners and radicals can not offer anything-when in doubt. compromise

Soft-liners:-secure your political base-maintain backward legitimacy-shift constuencies-be prepared for extreme moves-lead from strength-keep expectations low-encourage responsible opposition-create sense of inevitability

S. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, 141-2, 150-1, 162-3.

3a) Types of Consolidation3a) Types of Consolidation

A. Schedler, “What is Democratic Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy, 1998, pp. 91-107

3b) Economic challenges3b) Economic challenges

democracy & market economy

democracy & market economy reform

new democracies & market economy reform

different new democracies & market economy reform

3c) Retrospective justice3c) Retrospective justice

MEASURES

legal

political

PLAYERS

perpetrators victims

judicial trials property restitution,

compensation

lustration

recognition, memory

‘detotalitarization’

exposing collaborators

truth commissions

opening secret files

amnesty amnesia

Adapted from: C. Offe and U. Poppe, 2005, pp. 153

4) Comparing change: LA 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEEvs CEE

1.non-democratic regime type authoritarian vs. post-totalitarian

2.economic system capitalism vs planned economy

3.level of economic development weakly industrialized vs industrialized

4.class structure of society multi-layered vs flattened

5. multiethnicity homogeneous vs heterogenous societies

6. civil society strong vs weak

7. the role of the masses occasional vs decisive

8. international influences during liberalization limited vs background setter

9. international influences during democratization moderate vs extensive

4) Comparing change: LA 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEEvs CEE

10.state identity marginal vs liberation, independence

11.change in elites often limited vs often very extensive

12.main tasks of democratization regime change (+ econ. stabilization)

vs (‘triple-’) transformation of society successive vs simultaneous

4) Comparing change: LA 4) Comparing change: LA vs CEEvs CEE

Other fields and fociOther fields and foci

• modern European history and the Cold War• transition economics• anthropology of transition• memory and transitional justice• life stories and individual-level memory

research

TRANSITION STUDIES HAS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO!