Why is this happening?

Bruce A. McCarlDistinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics

Texas A&M University mccarl@tamu.edu http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/

Energy Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Effects

IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”

IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”

IPCC (2007) ”Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human caused) greenhouse gas concentrations.”

IPCC (2013) It is extremely likely (95–100% probability) that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010.

Why are we seeing climate change?

Source : U.S. National Assessment/ http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/images/Greenhouse-s.jpg.

Some gases, like carbon dioxide (CO), trap heat in the atmosphere by absorbing longwave radiation while letting the Sun's energy pass through. The transparent roof and walls of a greenhouse allow in the sunlight while keeping in the heat. Since these gases act similarly in the atmosphere, we call them greenhouse gases.

Degree of climate change Why is this happening

Degree of climate change Why is this happening

Cant be from the sun

Emissions

Anthropogenic emissions Emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and precursors of a greenhouse gas or aerosol caused by human activities. These activities include the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes, livestock production, fertilization, waste management, and industrial processes.

Pre industrial - 2751985 - 3452014 average - 399

GHG Concentration

http://co2now.org/

Why is this happening

Counting Non CO2

this increase exceeds 480ppm

For the past ten years (2005 - 2014), the average annual rate of increase is 2.11 parts per million (ppm).   This rate of increase is more than double the increase in the 1960s.   

http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm

Degree of climate change - Why is this happening

CO2 and temperature linked but does not lead

Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO2

1985 - 345 this almost hits 4802015 - 400

http://co2now.org/

Why are we seeing climate change?

50 16.7 10 7.14 microns

http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/cgimodels/radiation.html

earth emission with today’s atmosphere;ground temperature adjusted to balance the radiation (no clouds)

emitted high in the atmosphere from carbon dioxide

Why is this happening - Radiation Escaping

GHGs

GHGsGreenhouse gas (GHG) Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine-containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Beside CO2, N2O and CH4, the Kyoto Protocol deals with the greenhouse gases sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).

Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO21985 - 345 this almost doublesJan 2015 - 400 pre industrialJan 2013: 395.6Jan 2012: 393.1

Degree of climate change Why is this happening

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

PPM CO2 Year Increase

1960 0.541960 0.541965 1.021970 1.061975 1.131980 1.731985 1.251990 1.191991 0.991992 0.481993 1.401994 1.911995 1.991996 1.251997 1.911998 2.931999 0.932000 1.622001 1.582002 2.532003 2.292004 1.562005 2.522006 1.762007 2.222008 1.602009 1.922010 2.422011 1.832012 2.54

Degree of climate change Why is this happening

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/ghg-concentrations.html

GWPGlobal Warming Potential (GWP)An index, based on radiative properties of greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing following a pulse emission of a unit mass of a given greenhouse gas in the present-day atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of carbon dioxide.

The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing times these gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in causing radiative forcing. The Kyoto Protocol is based on GWPs from pulse emissions over a 100-year time frame. As for the Kyoto Protocol, this report uses GWP values derived from the IPCC Second Assessment Report: 21 for methane (CH4), 310 for nitrous dioxide (N2O), 1,300-11,700 for hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 6500-9200 for perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and 23,900 for sulphurhexafluoride (SF6).

GWP, GTP and Climate ChangeGWP is used to make comparisons of relative contributions among GHGs to global warming by comparing the ability of each gas to trap radiation in the atmosphere over a chosen time horizon. Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), which is change in GMST at a chosen point in time relative to CO2

IPCC uses CO2 as a reference gas with a GWP or GTP of 1

CO2 lifetime is complicated by multiple physical and biogeochemical processes in the ocean and the land. For a pulse of about 1000 PgC, about half is removed within a few decades, but the remaining fraction stays in the atmosphere for much longer. About 15 to 40% of the CO2 pulse is still in the atmosphere after 1000 years.

Source: Climate Change 2014: The Scientific Basis, Table 8.7

Degree of climate change Why is this happening

Greenhouse gas radiation reflectionIncrease in CO2 concentrationPlus CH4 N2OEnergy related emissionsEnergy – development relationshipGrowth of BRIC economies

Data 1700-2013

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/global-ghg-emissions.html

Degree of climate change - Why is this happening

The concentration of all GHGs, reached a value of 465 ppm CO2 equivalents in 2009 and 481 in 2014.

GASPre-1750 tropospheric concentration1

Recent tropospheric concentration2

GWP3(100-yr time horizon)

Atmospheric lifetime4(years)

Increased radiative forcing 5 (W/m2)

Concentrations in parts per million (ppm)Carbon dioxide (CO2) 2806 395.47 1 ~ 100-3004 1.88

Concentrations in parts per billion (ppb)Methane (CH4) 7228 18939/17629 28 124 0.49

Nitrous oxide (N2O) 27010 3269/3249 265 1214 0.17

Tropospheric ozone (O3) 2371 3372 n.a.3 hours-days 0.40

Concentrations in parts per trillion (ppt)

CFC-11 (trichlorofluoromethane) zero 2369/2349 4,660 45 0.061

CFC-12 (CCl2F2) zero 5279/5279 10,200 100 0.169

CF-113(CCl2CClF2) zero 749/749 5,820 85 0.022

HCFC-22(CHClF2) zero 2319/2109 1,760 11.9 0.046

HCFC-141b(CH3CCl2F) zero 249/219 782 9.2 0.0036

HCFC-142b(CH3CClF2) zero 239/219 1,980 17.2 0.0042

Halon 1211 (CBrCIF2) zero 4.19/4.09 1,750 16 0.0012

Halon 1301 (CBrCIF3) zero 3.39/3.39 6,290 65 0.0010

HFC-134a(CH2FCF3) zero 759/649 1,300 13.4 0.0108

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) zero 859/839 1,730 26 0.0143

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) zero 7.799,11/7.399,11 23,500 3200 0.0043

Other Halocarbons zeroVaries by substance

collectively <0.02

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html

Sources of Emissions

Figure SPM.3. (a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs from 1970 to 2004.5 (b) Share of different anthropogenic GHGs in total emissions in 2004 in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq). (c) Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (Forestry includes deforestation.) {Figure 2.1}

Global Emissions Share

Why is this Happening- Emissions growing

Figure TS.2. Historical anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, flaring, cement, Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) in five major world regions: OECD1990 (blue); Economies in Transition (yellow); Asia (green); Latin America (red); Middle East and Africa (brown). Panels show regional CO2 emission trends 1750-6 2010 from: (a) all sources (c+e); (c) fossil fuel combustion, flaring and cement; (e) FOLU.

Why is this happening - Energy emissions growing

IPCC 2014 WGIII Figure 7.3. Energy supply sector GHG emissions by Subsectors. Table shows average annual growth rates of emissions over decades and the sharesPlus drivers (POP – population, FEC- final energy consumption)

Who Emits

                                                                                              

         

Why is this happening - Emissions growing

Emissions growing

http://petrolog.typepad.com/climate_change/2010/01/cumulative-emissions-of-co2.html

Why is this happening - Emissions shares

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2014/

Global Greenhouse Gas Data

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia

Africa

Other Americas

Other Asia

Middle East

China

OECD Asia Oceania

OECD Europe

United States

Canada

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2009.html

Most of the growth is in areas that are not todays biggest emittersChallenge there is better life but without emissions increase

Who Emits

Degree of climate change – Texas and GHGs

0.0

100.0200.0

300.0400.0

500.0

600.0700.0

800.0

AL

AR

AZ

CA

CO

CT

DC

DE

FL

GA

HI

IA

ID

IL

IN

KS

KY

LA

MA

MD

ME

MI

MN

MO

MS

MT

NC

ND

NE

NH

NJ

NM

NV

NY

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV

WY

US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins

US EPA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

Emissions growingMost emissions from energy

Size of Potential Emissions

Coal5,000 to 8,000 PgC

Biomass~500 PgC

Soils~1,500 PgC

Atmosphere 800 PgC (2004)

Oil~270 PgC

N. Gas~260 PgC

Unconventional Fossil Fuels15,000 to 40,000 PgC

Source Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland

http://www.climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/GlobalchangesinGHG.htm

World GHG emissions - by country

World GHG emissions - by country

Figure TS.4a: Distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions (all Kyoto gases including those from land-use) over the population of different country groupings in 2004. The percentages in the bars indicate a region’s share in global GHG emissions [Figure 1.4a].

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-ts.pdf

Source: IEA WEO 2007 and Socolow presentation at Americas Climate Choices

Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005

1-

World emissions: 27 billion tons CO2

STABILIZATION

AVERAGE TODAY

Emissions concentrations and forcing

                                                                               

           

Source : IPCC 2013 ar5 wg I Science of Climate Change

Figure SPM.5 | Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change. Values are global average radiative forcing (RF14), partitioned according to the emitted compounds or processes that result in a combination of drivers. The best estimates of the net radiative forcing are shown as black diamonds with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided on the right of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net forcing (VH – very high, H – high, M – medium, L – low, VL – very low). Albedo forcing due to black carbon on snow and ice is included in the black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m–2, including contrail induced cirrus), and HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m–2) are not shown.

Future emissions are mostly projected to increase

                                                                                                          

          

Figure 2-9: CO2 Emissions in Global Futures Scenarios (narrative scenarios). Acronyms: OCF, the “Our Common Future”

scenario from Duchin et al., 1994; GS, the “Global Shift”; ER, the “European Renaissance”; GC, the “Global Crisis”; and BG the “Balanced Growth” scenarios from the Central Planning Bureau of the Netherlands (CPB, 1992); A1, A2, A3, B, C1 and C2, scenarios from Nakicenovic et al., 1998; CW-R, “Conventional Worlds – Reference”; and CW-PR, “Conventional Worlds – Policy Reform” from Gallopin et al., 1997 and Raskin et al., 1998.

Source IPPC 2001:Mitigation

Future emissions are mostly projected to increase

Year A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2

2000 356 356 356 356 356 356

2010 378 393 381 385 384 391

2020 416 442 417 407 416 432

2030 473 493 467 449 449 470

2040 546 561 552 507 481 511

2050 605 622 686 575 515 555

2060 681 673 852 670 550 599

2070 746 704 1033 786 578 647

2080 795 723 1215 920 597 697

2090 831 724 1385 1072 607 751

2100 861 717 1535 1256 608 808

Data from http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/observed-and-projected-changed-in-the-overall-kyoto-gasses-fig-1a-and-all-greenhouse-gasses-expressed-in-co2-equivalents-ipcc-2007a-partly-based-on-ipcc-2001-2