WHY IS MEXICO WORTH STUDYING?

• Its revolution and aftermath… The evidence suggests that violent upheavals almost always turn out poorly

• Its proximity to the US, and treatment by us• It was a one-party, bureaucratic authoritarian state for decades and is

a model for nations like China• It lets us see what it’s like to democratize fairly rapidly in the era of

globalized economic production and human rights• It tells us about the challenges that weak states have with

democratization: Zapatistas, drugs and immigration• We sometimes think that everyone should have a political system like

ours… Mexico is one of many Latin American countries that are having real challenges making presidential systems work all that well (and it works there better than in most cases)

SOME IMPORTANT BASICS ABOUT MEXICO• Some basic demographic information:

– +/-115 million people, 11th in the world; birth rate of 2.31 per woman= 107th in world; 20 million people in Mexico City alone. Why does size matter?

– Urban pop = 77%; 1950s = 40%: Why is urbanicity so impt for development?– Life expectancy: female = 79, male = 73; 71st in the world– Literacy: 86%, Avg. years of schooling: 13.5 years– From the Aztecs to 70% Mestizo. What’s the “Cosmic Race” and how does it play into

Mexican nationalism?• Some basic economics

– GDP $1 trillion (2009), 12 largest in the world – Per cap GDP (PPP) = $15,266; GNI per capita in 2011 $9,420 US/Atlas; $15,390 ppp– Mexico is one of the US’s largest sources of oil… But this will change

• Drugs– Growing opium = Enough opium annually to produce 18 metric tons of pure heroin – Growing marijuana = 19K metric tons in 2009– Cocaine = 90% of US-bound ships through MX– Drug related deaths from drug war: 60K bw ’06 – ‘12; by comparison, the total

number of US deaths in the Vietnam war: 58K

WHAT KEY JUNCTURES HAVE SHAPED MEXICAN POLITICS?• We won’t talk too much about this slide in class, but I wanted to highlight some

key historical moments prior to the PRI consolidating that made key contributions to the trajectory of Mexican political life:

• Hernan Cortes arrives in 1519, defeats the Aztec leader Cuahtemoc and builds Mexico City on top of the Aztecs capital… by 17th C. pop of 25 million is 1 million

• Mexico’s independence: Why was it anything but revolutionary except in the death count of over half a million lives (Miguel Hildago failed in 1810, so conservative generals led one in 1821)?

• What has happened when Mexico wasn’t unified and well led?... Occupation by France (1861-67); Separation of TX (1834); The Mexican American War (1846-48); the Mexican Revolution and its aftermath (1910)

• How did rule by Benito Juarez, (a Zapoteca and liberal whose forces came to power in the 1850s) alter the role of the Catholic church in Mexico? What is his legacy for Mexican nationalism?

• The Porfiriato (1876s-1910): How did rule by the “modernizing tyrant” Porfirio Diaz help and harm Mexico?

• What were the causes, issues, and costs (7% of pop) of the Mexican Revolution and its termination (1910-1920s). Who won? Radicals or moderates?

WHAT DID MEXICO LOOK LIKE UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF THE PRI?

• How was the revolution finally institutionalized in the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party)? – The key elements of the elite pact in the 1930s, based on the mid-civil war 1917

Constitution– The key leadership choices of Lazaro Cardenas: corporatism, land reform (ejidos),

and the nationalization of the oil industry• How did the PRI stay in power so long? What was “The perfect dictatorship”

– Leadership flexibility: The key was having a dynamic, albeit closed oligarchy (using the “camarilla” system)

– Staying connected to the people through non-democratic means: elite rotation, coporatism, clientelism, patronage, populism, and shared prosperity

– Why did the PRI allow the PAN to emerge? So it could keep a finger on the pulse of elements (business and conservative elites) that could threaten it

• Was the PRI ultimately good or bad for Mexico? – Look at the rest of the region in the 1960s; the use of the military was very light– Its economic record (ISI works better when it is used selectively and with oil$)– Its record of creating an independent civil society– Its record of creating an urbanized Mexico– Its graceful exit from power (more… on the specifics… next slide)

WHY DID MEXICO BECOME DEMOCRATIC?Why did the PRI finally begin lose its grip on power?: • The Mexican Miracle (1940s->1970s) ->ISI and borrowing:Oil shocks-->debt

negotiation austerity Recession and political base issues• The PRI shifts to a technocrat, Carlos Salinas (1988), creating the PRD, and

resulting in the stolen 1988 election (from Cuauhtémoc Cardenas)• Liberalization and NAFTA: Hitting the PRI’s base… PPP wages dropped 50%Why was the PRI’s Ernesto Zedillo (1994-2000) so important in the transition?: • The end of the Cold War, NAFTA and agricultural “reform,” collapse of the peso,

the assassination of Donaldo Collasio, & some Zapatista revolutionaries• The economic crisis and corruption scandal involving the former president gives

Zedillo his opening: electoral reforms, unleashing the media, an independent electoral commission, and refusing to name a successor

Why did the PRI lose the 2000 election? Why did Vicente Fox (2000-2006)’s PAN win?• Fox’s American political consultants versus the PRI machine• Deciding to vote against PRI: Tipping points and overcoming the voters’ dilemma What in the world happened in 2006? There are actually lots of upsides to the loss by

the PRD’s Manual Obrador and the <1%victory of the PAN, led by Felipe Calderon2012-->Pena Nieto wins with 39.1%: Is this a different PRI?

HOW IS POWER STRUCTURED IN MEXICO?The presidential system (per the 1917 Constitution): • Six year terms; The no-reelection principle• One-round, multiparty national plurality elections with no run-off (like US… with

much more problematic with 3 parties). • The president was very strong under the PRI, but now is contained if the

Congressional opposition unites. But the PRD is an interesting wild cardThe Congress is poorly institutionalized (weak committee system, few resources for

legislatures, very limited amendment powers); electoral reforms blocked so far• The Chamber of Deputies: 500 seats with three-year terms. (1) 300 seats = FPTP;

(2) 200 = PR using lists from five regions to get balance. (3) No party can control more than 300 seats in total. PR = gender quotas… but not good ones.

• The Senate: 128 seats with six-year terms. For each of the 31 states and the federal district the 1st place party = 2 seats, 2nd place party = 1 seat; 32 additional PR (national list) seats available for smaller parties and to get balance.

Strong federalism (at the state level) is a key feature of Mexican politics and key to the role drugs, clientelism, and party “dinasours” still play.

The main parties: The PRI, the PAN, and the PRD. What are the main differences, and what are their main constituencies? What happens if and when more parties get involved?

IS REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE STILL NEEDED? MEXICO'S UNFINISHED DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

What are the most serious unresolved political problems?• Why didn’t Mexico rewrite its Constitution when it went

democratic? • Did Vicente Fox do anything right despite his poor policy

performance? Yes! (think about George Washington)• What are “authoritarian legacies” and “enclaves” still are present

in Mexico? Where (which locations? Which institutions?)• Can the Mexican political system solve problems without

institutional reform? Multipartism & presidentialism • Does Mexico need the revolution that Marcos’s Zapatistas and

López Obrador have call for? Not much of a threat really• Can Mexican elections be fixed? Is there any upside to crisis with

the 2006 elections? What does it tell us about Mexico’s democratic culture?

IS REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE STILL NEEDED? MEXICO'S UNFINISHED DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

How are drugs impacting Mexico’s democracy? • Why could the drug trade impact the entire political system? (How does

the drug trade fit into the logic of the “curse” of natural resources?).• How do drugs impact mass confidence in the political system (remember

the good ol’ days under the PRI?)? Has democracy in the era of globalization made the drug problem worse… of course it has.

• The threats to civil society (esp. press, opinion leaders, and NGOs) • The construction of extra-state patronage systems by cartels, extra

judicial killings by fed up elites • Violence, corruption, and unequal citizenship in the courts is particularly

problematic in subnational politics• Isn’t it time to take this as a bi-national problem? Our gun laws,

laundering resources, and drug use has brought full-blow networks across the border

• Can the drug crisis be leveraged to get political change? Maybe.