“Who Misvotes; The Eﬀect of Diﬀerential Cognition Costs on Election Outcomes

7/28/2019 Who Misvotes; The Effect of Differential Cognition Costs on Election Outcomes

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229

Aeica Ecic Jal: Ecic Plic 2009, 1:1, 229257p://www.aeaweb.g/aicles.pp?i=10.1257/pl.1.1.229

W q- 152 2003 C w . W -

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*S: D E, H U, L C, 1805 C S., C, MA02138, (-: @..); L: H U K S G, 79 J F.K S., C, MA 02138, N B E R (NBER), I S L (IZA) (-: _@.). W w k k A A, G C,S DV, J F, Ew G, C H, B J, L K, R K,w , w U C, Bk, HU, 2007 P C S .W U C, Bk I G SSw D . W k A H . KS kw N S F G R Fw G

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T :://www.w./.?=10.1257/.1.1.229

Who Misvotes? The Effect of Differential

Cognition Costs on Election Outcomes

B Kelly Shue and Erzo F. P. Luttmer*

I ves ave egligible cgii css, ball la sl aec eleci ces. We exple eviais aial v-ig sig qasi-a vaiai i caiae ae placee balls e 2003 Caliia ecall eleci. We f a icaiaes ve saes als ble we ei aes ae ajace e aes aj caiaes. All else eqal, ve sae gais

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Copyright 2009, American Economic Association; reproduced with permission of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy


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230 AmErICAn EConomIC JournAL: EConomIC PoLICy FEBruAry 2009

(.., S K. R 1998). T k - k, , . A A w . I

. W w .

M w . F, , w . W H A. S (1955) k ( J Ck 1996 w), w w w q. W w w -. Fw J A. L D Lk-R (2002), w w - . W w w . O w q -k w (.., B C. M D F. S 2001, J C . 2004, R H. T S B 2004, A L O S. M 2007).

O - S DV (2007). W - , M S. R (2001) w , k mCIw w k mCIC. W -q , w () . A - , w w . O

. W - 1 300, w R.

S, . P w . J M. M J A. Kk (1998), J G. S. K J A. S (2004), A K Aw L () w 2 . Hw, w- w-kw (.., D A. T 1975, M Kk 1998, K S 2004, D E. H Kk I 2006). F, . T, w


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VoL. 1 no. 1 231ShuE And LuttmEr: Who mISVotES?

U S w w - - lses . T Pk J. B P B C, FL 2000 US P E. W

B kw 3,407 P B C k,2 q w A G G W. B - B 537 . N B A G w w P B C (.., J W.W . 2001 R L. S 2002).

Uk , . V . W w w w. F, w w . S, w - w w . B D -, C M. B, .

W

2003 C . C - D 1, q . D w q , w () (-) . T w . F 1 . W R J. P

- w . W w , , . I , w - k . F, w , , k -. W C w .Hw, w k .

2 I T w N 9, 2000, B , W I k k E N w A G.


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W

( ).W w

. M 0.30 - .3 W . P w - , w MR. A . (2004) T S. D (2007). C , w . U - , w , q, w , , - .

3 T w w .

Figure 1

nes: T P - ( 1 80) w . A k P - w A Sw . W P 0.08 w Sw .P ( 1.8 ) - w Sw, .

2

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Vote

Share

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Ordered by Assembly District-County

Vote Share for Minor Candidate Ronald Palmieri

Adjacent to Arnold Schwarzenegger


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Vol. 1 No. 1 233Shue aNd luttmer: Who miSVoteS?

A j , D , B, x R , A A. Sz, 62 . WSz B 17 , -

Sz 0.07 47 . T 2000 US , 2004 W , 1974 NH , 1985 I . F, - j j j , US . I , j j , , x .

Aj q . W , j . N z , j j . O j . F, ( ) . S, j x . F x, - ,

. T, x - j .

I. The California Recall Election Dataset

A C O 7, 2003 - G G D. V q:

() S Gy dvs b c (v) c Gvn? Ys/N

() Cns scc Gy dvs s Gvn s c: V n[ls 135 ns]

V q q. I 50 Y q, q -. P q (65 $3,500 - ), 135 D. T x G W. C, M M C C, K E. TzR.


6/29

234 ameriCaN eCoNomiC JourNal: eCoNomiC poliCY FeBruarY 2009

B x . T (58 ). T - (80 ). B , 157 (-). C z ,RWQOJMVAHBSGZXNTCIEKUPDYFL, .

D C (55

). T 1 . T 93.56 , 0.05 132 . F , -: Sz (R), B (D), T MC (R) major can-didates. I x , P M. Cj, j . A minor candidates.4

C : ,

, . P q . S q x . O q . F, q x -. A , . T . I , 45 (19 )

4 R () Cj , () - 5 , () .

Table 12003 Caliornia Recall Election Results

R C V N

1 A Sz 48.60 3,747,4462 Cz M. B 31.63 2,439,1333 T MC 13.33 1,027,926

4 P M Cj 2.77 213,5475 A H 0.55 42,6546 P V. U 0.29 22,2677 L F 0.20 15,4898 G C 0.16 12,7129 G B. Sz 0.14 10,96010 M C 0.13 10,129:

25 E T K 0.0335 2,58650 M J. Wz 0.0179 1,38475 S A. M 0.0103 791100 D D MM 0.0067 517135 T R L 0.0022 172


7/29


, 43 (33 ) , 11 (4 ) . E .T Ax B.

W z 152 -

-.5

W - I G S (IGS) U C, B. T - .6 T - - , , . B , - US C 2000 IGS . S - Ax B.

II. Empirical Strategy

I , j - . T (.., Az . 2001 H E. B . 2001) . T , Az . (2004) D (2007) z j . U - 2003C , D

j j . D 0.15 j j .Az . (2004) x . H, x , .., j q 0.4 j . C , - .

B Az . (2004) D (2007) - j j j. T, x j j . T x

5 T . W S I ( 1.4 ). I

, .

6 W IGS . H, - IGS . F - 85 C . T IGS .


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j . F x,D G B. Sz.S Sz Sz Sz j Sz ,

j- . T, D Az j. I , j -, 50 .

T j, j z j - ( Ax A). W j , , , j. I j j . N j . B j j , j .

I j . I 60 ( 51 -) - , z j j . F x, Sz

- , j. I Sz - -, j . F, j j - . S j Ax B.7 B z j j, z j. F , , .

C - - , 57 j j -. H, j , :

(1) Vsc5b01 ajcncb11 cns1ec,

7

W j q j - j ( 2 Ax A). T j x 13 ( 39 ) V P . B x, j j .


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ajcnc; icjcn3mj Cn Vsc.

A c , - . E - . Vsc c - . W j .ic

jcn q c j

j - . I ,ic

jcn j (.., -

j Sz) j. I c j j - , mj Cn Vscq j j. ajcnc ic

jcn mjCn Vsc. F ec - . O - . T 132 , . T 1,839,024 - 13,932 80 56 .

I , b1 x j j . I , b1 - j c j- . (T b1 b1 j j .)I b1 j j -; .., Sz A B

Sz q A B, j Sz A B.

W x : ( , , ),- x , x , x - , x j . A, 2,402 j .

T -- q , , . C- x j -. T


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x j j . W x - .

T j , , , j- . S, x - j j -. I S III, - x j j, - , .

III. Results

A. t Bsn rs

R (1) T 2 . I q - ajcn, q j j j z . A , -. B j - x ,

ajcn j j . R (1) j j x q 0.105 j . I j j , 0.315 . T 1 .8A , j j (.., , , , )

j , 0.30 (.. 5 0.04 ) , 1 300 ( Ax C).

R (2) T 2 j j . I ajcn j . W B 0.144 j , 0.089 Sz 0.109 MC. T B

8 W . I , ajcn 0.116 (.. 5 0.027). W x ( 50 , 0.27 ).


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62 Sz ( 5 ). T -

q j j ; Sz B q j , Sz 0.07 . I , B j .

R (3) T 2 ajcn dy, q j j . T

ajcn dy x- j j . R 0.037 j j .G 0.049 , j- j .

T 3 x . R (1) T 3 ajcn dy, q j j ajcn, q ajcn dy - j j . R(1) j - j . W ,j 0.00081

Table 2Baseline Results

D Vs5 (/ ) 3 100 (1) (2) (3)

Aj 0.105*** (0.024)

Aj3 Sz 0.089*** (0.025)

Aj3 B 0.144*** (0.028)Aj3MC 0.109** (0.046)Aj 0.037** (0.009)

O 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024

r2 0.8686 0.8687 0.8686

Ns: R , j 3 (152 ), -.ajcnq - j j- j z . Scwzngg,Bsn, mcCnck q j j Sz, B, MC,. O . C x , x ( , H, A, 1824, 65 , ,

$1,000 , , , E f, - R, , D -), x - j Sz,B, MC, ( , , ) -.

*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .


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j . T 1 - .

R (2) T 3 j j j . I j cnc-v j , (2) j sw j . T ajcn dy 3 Ca Vs 0.113 - 1 . M , 0.105 ajcn (1) T 2,

Table 3Robustness Checks and Mechanism

D :Vs5 (/ ) 3 100 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Aj 0.081*** 0.105*** 0.105***(0.019) (0.024) (0.024)

Aj 0.011**(0.006)

Aj 3 CA 0.113***(0.026)

N j 0.081*** 0.081***(0.022) (0.022)

S j 0.121*** 0.121***(0.034) (0.034)

E j 0.143***(0.046)

W j 0.038***

(0.013)D j 0.004

(0.003)

P j 0.032**(0.015)

Hz j 0.031***(0.009)

Hz j3 0.123**(0.049)

O 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024r2 0.8687 0.8786 0.8687 0.8686 0.8687 0.8687

Ns: R , j cny3 sc, . I j j , Ca Vs q j .N, S, es, Ws ajcnq - j , , , j, , z .dgny

ajcn pncc ajcnq - j j (.., , , , j ) j j , .hzny ajcnq - j j z . Cnsng S q z j- j x j .A T 2.

*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .


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j j .

R (3) T 3 j j(, , ). T

j j. 0.143 j , 0.038 j , 0.081 0.121 j , . Wx j j (6). F , (3) j . O j ( z ) . F x-, j , j Sz Sz, Sz. W x , j j. H, j j j . T j j j .

R (4) T 3 x

j j . D j j . R (4) j z j. O 0.004 j 0.105 z j . L - j . B j ,

z j .W x . M j . M j j -. R (5) T 3 x j- x j . T- (13 ) q - x . E . A 2 Ax A. B x , j j j


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x . T , j . V j j

. R (5) , j - x , 0.032 j . T 5 j j .

R (6) T 3 j . I x, : , , , j, , . S 1 Ax A x. I , j j j j . I x, j j . N j q j. A j . I q j . W

z j .9

W hzny ajcnhznyajcn3 Cnsng S. Cnsng S q z j j - x j . W hzny ajcn 0.031 hzny

ajcn3 Cnsng s 0.123, . I j , , ,

j . R (6) x esajcn Ws ajcn (3). F 64 - , x

9 I j . W 0.011 j . W 5 , 10 , . I j -

. W ajcn - j j ( x). T (-: 0.40) - j - .


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j j . F, .O ( ) .

Aj x .

B.dgc Ccscs

T , x -, . T j . B, - . W D B x B j Sz MC.

A , .., , ,., . MTz R P. V H (2003) , - 4 6

10. C , S K M K (2003) .

T , x . T - , ajcn - , Char, .10 I , - . T

, Tech ajcn3 Tech, Tech .

T . F, . F x, x z x, x z x , . S, - z C H. A W. P S (1995) - j

10T Char Char3 cn x cs .


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.11 N, - .

T 4 ajcn ajcn - .

W 1 0.0091 j . T 1 .T ajcn3 pcn Cg Gs 20.0072, . T T 4 j - . H , j 0.328 - . T - j . T D J. Bj, S A. B, JM. S (2006) L M (2007). L M x q , f, . Bj, B, S (2006) x , , .

W , , 1 A 0.0013 j . T - 10 . A H 0.0021 , .M, ajcn3 pcn Bck z, ( ). H H -

, j 0.046 - A . T q j .

C , 1 0.0042 - 1 .P R I

11F x, 60 A 40 - 10 A 90 . T A . I A .


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D ( ). H,

. I , R I D ( , S L 2006). F, . T - R I . T D P , . T x D .

W x j - - : US , , E f, 65, 18 24. W

Table 4Eect o Precinct Demographic Characteristics on Misvoting

5

95

D j

D :Vs5 (/ ) 3 100

Aj 0.8224*** (0.2195)

Aj3 20.0003 (0.0008) 0.00 0.18 20.0054Aj3 H 0.0021 (0.0015) 0.04 0.64 0.1260

Aj3 A 0.0013* (0.0007) 0.01 0.36 0.0455

Aj3 1824 20.0014 (0.0011) 0.03 0.14 20.0154Aj3 65 0.0011* (0.0006) 0.07 0.36 0.0319

Aj3 0.0009** (0.0004) 0.01 0.32 0.0279

Aj3 (K) 20.0003 (0.0006) 12K 55K 20.0129Aj3 HS 20.0091*** (0.0035) 0.24 0.60 20.3276Aj3 20.0072*** (0.0025) 0.12 0.71 20.4248Aj3 R 0.0010 (0.0013) 0.09 0.60 0.0510

Aj3 0.0042*** (0.0016) 0.03 0.21 0.0756

Aj3 I 20.0005 (0.0018) 0.00 0.24 20.0120Aj3 E f 20.0071* (0.0043) 0.01 0.26 20.1775

O 1,839,024r2 0.8690

Ns: R , j 3 , .ajcnq - j j j z . O : pcn g sc s, pcn ncy, pcn

dc. pcn hS gs pcn cg gs (pcn hS gs - ). pcn bck, pcn hsnc, pcn asn - , H, A, ( ). pcn dc, pcn rbcn, pcn y D, R, ; pcn innn. I

$1,000 . pcn n vy . pcn ckng engs fncy f E.pcn g 65 s pcn g 18 24 65 18 24, . C Techajcnc3Tech, Tech 11 . A T 2.

*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .


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x . W 65 E f. W -

.S T 4 , , - ( , S L 2006). T - M S (2001), C . (2004), T Bz (2004), , - , . I , S A . (2007), .

T , Sz MC, B j. I q , B 62 Sz 32 MC. U -, j -

j .12

W , Sz MC, B . D j x - .13

C. Vng tcngy

N x - , . T

, -, . B . (2001) z

12 W -. T j ( j ) j . A j j , B 24 Sz 14 MC. T, 38 B Sz 42

B MC.13 O x . S

, , , Sz, B, MC q j . T , B . T, x j .


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. O , 2 - . U - 2000 US P E, B . . Az . (2001)

B .M j -. D (2007) , .., j j .D , , 0.04 -, - . Wx D - j z j j . W x D x - (.., ) - . F, - . T f .

T j , ajcn Tech - . W Tech . B , - , , . B -

, , .., D AV-TS . F , Ax B. I , ajcn3 Char, Char - . T - - .

R (1) T 5 - j . O 0.202

j 0.109 0.068 -, . F, ajcn3 pnc C ajcn3 oc Scn ajcn3 tcScn 1 . T j .14 T

14 T j , T 5, j -

. S j , . T 0.325 (.. 5 0.036) , 0.273 (.. 5 0.049) , 0.211 (..5 0.056) .T, , .


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(.., Az . 2001 B . 2001) .

R (2) (3) T 5 . I (2), - . R (3) - j

Table 5Interactions with Voting Technology

D :

Vs5 (/ ) 3 100 (1) (2) (3) (4)

Aj3 0.202*** 0.198*** 0.202***(0.024) (0.027) (0.026)

Aj3 0.109*** 0.101*** 0.114***(0.024) (0.027) (0.026)

Aj3 0.068*** 0.065*** 0.079***(0.019) (0.020) (0.021)

Aj3 D A-V-OS 0.171***(0.041)

Aj3 ES&S 550 O 0.083***(0.023)

Aj3 ES&S O E 0.110***(0.033)

Aj3 H B N 0.067***

(0.017)Aj3 M-A-V 0.079**

(0.032)

Aj3 Sq O 0.095***(0.024)

Aj3 D AV-TS 0.007(0.040)

Aj3 Sq E 0.096***(0.018)

Aj3 D 0.096***(0.033)

Aj3 P 0.242***(0.032)

Aj3 V 0.213***(0.022)

D Y N Y Y

Aj5 Aj 3 CA N N Y N

O 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024r2 0.8689 0.8688 0.8689 0.8690

Ns: R , j 3 , . I - (1), (2), (4)ajcnq - j j j z . I (3), ajcnq - j j j z -. C . D

ajcnc3Char, Char - , H, A, 1824, 65 , , , , , E f, R, , ( D ). A - . A T 2.

*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .

Optical

Touch

Punch


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- ajcn5 iajcn3mj Cn V S. T j - j - , . I

(2) (3), (1).R (4) T 5 j . E - . E : , , . R (4) , , , x: D A-V-OS - , D ,15 D AV-TS - . I , (2) (3) . H, - (4).

I , K K (2002), PG E S (2005), D C E M (2007) H

. M, j . C - .

D.acns n exnsns

W j ,

. N , , . T - 1880, 1884, 1960, 2000 -q .16 R, 2004 W , 2000W , 1998 N , 2002 S D - .

15 T D ( q x ). T, D

. I, - .

16O E C. F j US, E C. I , q .


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Mj - .

H, C j . T 135

. T - j . T j - . F x, 72 2004 , j 10 . E , , 30 .17Y, C . B j , x . F x, D ES&S, j US , x .T j C .

F j j j C. U C, . R, j ,

. T j j - j . I , j j , x j .

IV. Conclusion

T x j . W

j - .

W j - 2003 C - . B - , x j j . T x j . W j j 0.30

17D W .


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. M ,, - , - w . W , ,

-. E w , w, - .

A . A . I C -, w w D B. T w, R Sw, B 62 . A , , 2000 W 2004. T, - w , .

Appendix A: Sample Ballots

Ballot 1T w w -

A C. T - w. C Sw,
http://www.atypon-link.com/action/showImage?doi=10.1257/pol.1.1.229&iName=master.img-001.jpg&w=365&h=226


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, . B , Sw - R P, Sw , Sw

.

Ballot 2

T w w - S C. M B - w. V - . E . T - .

Ballot 3

T w w - R C. T w. V
http://www.atypon-link.com/action/showImage?doi=10.1257/pol.1.1.229&iName=master.img-003.jpg&w=147&h=311http://www.atypon-link.com/action/showImage?doi=10.1257/pol.1.1.229&iName=master.img-002.jpg&w=201&h=311


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. A k . T w w k w - . M G Sw w Sw . Hw,Sw Sw k.
http://www.atypon-link.com/action/showImage?doi=10.1257/pol.1.1.229&iName=master.img-004.jpg&w=366&h=480


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Appendix B: Summary Statistics

Table B1Precinct Level Data

V M S

S T 850.10 580.50P 0.05 0.35P A Sw 48.41 16.97P C B 31.64 17.61P T MCk 13.49 4.74P w D 37.12 48.31P w R 30.30 45.96P w 8.33 27.64P w 24.24 42.85P 18 24 8.08 4.93P 65 19.14 10.96

C

P w 68.58 19.44P k 4.84 8.83P A 10.36 11.47P H 21.92 19.08P k E 7.64 8.46M ($1,000 ) 27.97 14.03P w C 10.98 10.55P ( ) 43.61 10.89P 39.40 18.04

O 1,839,024P 13,932

nes: O - . O -

. M w .

Table B2Identification of Adjacent Candidates

Fq V

TSw

B

MCk

N

N 93.7 96.8 94.2 3S 91.3 96.1 92.7 3E 35.6 39.0 35.5 25W 23.6 26.6 15.4 20

P 9.0 9.0 9.0 18

nes: W q, w .T w .

P w .


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Appendix C: Calculation of the Number of Misvotes

R , Vesaepc5b01b13 Icajace1 cls1epc,

-. L Ic

ajace :

1I AS ajace, Is AS ajace, Ieas AS ajace, Iwes AS ajace,I CB ajace, Is CB ajace, Ieas CB ajace, Iwes CB ajace,

I tm ajace, Is tm ajace, Ieas tm ajace, Iwes tm ajace2 .

B - , w q w, , Sw. T w q q. L F q

1F AS ajace, Fs AS ajace, Feas AS ajace, Fwes AS ajace,F CB ajace, Fs CB ajace, Feas CB ajace, Fwes CB ajace,

F tm ajace

, Fs tm ajace

, Feas tm ajace

, Fwes tm ajace

2 .

F , F AS ajace Sw, w . I , Sw - ( Sw ) (Sw ). S F , F w . O k F w q q. SA B q .

Ib1 , - q b1F. A b1F q 0.30 w 0.04. T, 0.30 2003 C .

Table B3Voting Technology

T T P U 2005

D A-V-OS 12.3 YES&S 550 O 5.4 NES&S O E 5.1 Y

H B Nw 10.6 YMk-A-V 4.3 YSq O 5.7 YD AV-TS 5.3 YSq E 6.1 YD 5.9 YP 9.0 NV 30.3 N

nes: P w . W , w . B w Y w w 2005.


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