Who is ‘Most Valuable’

Tyler SchatzLawrence Mulcahy

• There have been 53 MVPs in the NBA with the first being Bob Pettit in the 1956-57 season

• Since 1980, the selection of the MVP has been determined by sportswriters and broadcasters

• Before that, it was determined by the NBA players

• Both of these methods are subjective and Berri’s article tries to take a more objective approach to determine the MVP

The IBM MVP Award Formula• [(PTS - FGA + RBO + RBD + AST + STL + BLK - PF - TO + (t Wins x 10)) x 250]

• [tPTS - tFGA + tRBO + tRBD + tAST + tSTL + tBLK - tPF - tTO]

• This formula is a proportion of a players statistics vs. his team’s statistics to show the impact he has on his team

• The IBM Award was last given out to Tim Duncan in after the 2001-2002 season and is no longer given out to NBA players

Activity• Use this formula to determine who should win

the MVP this year: LeBron or D-Wade.• [(PTS - FGA + RBO + RBD + AST + STL + BLK - PF - TO + (t Wins x 10)) x 250]

• [tPTS - tFGA + tRBO + tRBD + tAST + tSTL + tBLK - tPF - tTO]• P:\temp\IBM Award Formula.doc

MVP by Position

• Does a certain position receive more MVP awards than the other positions?

• To test this we will use frequency tables and the Chi-square goodness of fit test.

• This statistic is the sum of the observed counts minus expected counts squared divided by the expected counts

• H0: The data are consistent with a specified distribution. (observed counts = expected counts)Ha: The data are not consistent with a specified distribution.

Results

Analysis/Further Research

• The χ2 stat gives a p-value<.0001, so we can conclude that a significantly higher number of centers have been selected

• To investigate this further, we decided to separate the years the

players(1956-1979) voted for the MVP vs. the years sportswriters

determined(1980-Present) the MVP

• It should be noted that the year sportswriters started choosing the MVP was also the year the three-point line was introduced

Selected by the Players

Selected by Sports writers

MVP by Conference

• Have the two conferences received a significantly different number of MVP awards

• To test this we will again use the Chi-square goodness of fit test

Results

MVP by Conference continued

• We determined that there is no significant difference in the number of MVPs chosen in the conferences, but is this true when the players determined the MVP?

Results when the players choose

Results when sportswriters choose

Conclusions• The players determining the NBA MVP lead to a

significantly higher number of centers being selected

• a significantly higher number of players from the eastern conference were selected during this time period

• The decision to switch to sportswriters has improved the selection process

• A model to determine the MVP could work, but it’s hard to determine a players ‘value’ to a team solely through numbers.

Resources

• Who is Most Valuable? Measuring the players production of wins in the National Basketball Association

• www.basketball-reference.com• http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/software/

dataplot/refman1/auxillar/chsqgood.htm