Who has the Power in the EU?

Francesco Passarelli, Harvard, Bocconi, and TeramoUniversity of Macau - , March 2nd 2012

Based on a paper with J. M. Barr, Rutgers University

Who has the Power in the EU?EU MembersAustriaBelgiumDenmarkFranceFinlandGermanyGreeceIrelandItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsPortugalSpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

Bulgaria (2007)Cyprus (2004)Czech Rep. (2004)Estonia (2004)Hungary (2004)Latvia (2004)Lithuania (2004)Malta (2004)Poland (2004)Romania (2007)Slovakia (2004)Slovenia (2004)

Croatia(2013)Turkey(na)

Old MembersNewly Acceding Countries The EU GovernmentEuropean ParliamentMEPs Directly Elected by citizensLegislative BranchCouncil of MinistersMinisters from member governmentsLegislative BranchCommissionAppointed commissionersAgenda SetterEU CouncilEUs main decision making body

Represents member governmentsMembers are one minister from each members national governmentRotating presidency

Weighted votes

Most issues are passed by qualified majorityThe path for reformsHistorical dichotomy: Locating the optimal balance betweenthe intergovernmental nature of the EUanda federal developmentThe Treaty of Nice (12/2000) failed to find a solution Laeken Summit (12/2001), a new method:the Constitutional ConventionBruxelles Summit (6/ 2003) endorsed the Convention's proposalsRome (10/2004) the Constitutional Treaty (CT) signedThe path for reforms5/2005, French and Dutch vote NO to the Constitution10/2007, the heads of states decided to Constitution and keep the institutional reforms within the Lisbon Treaty5/2008, Ireland said NO in a referendum which stopped again the ratification process.October 2009, a second referendum in Ireland passed the ratification.The Lisbon Treaty comes into force on the 1st December 2009.EU 27 Votes - Pre- and Post NiceCountryPre-NiceNiceGer, Fra, Ita, UK1029Spa, Pol827Romania13Netherlands513Belg, Cze, Gree, Hung, Port512Aus, Swe, Bulg410Den, Ire, Lith, Slova, Fin37Cyp, Est, Lat, Lux, Slov24Malta3Total87345EU 27 Qualified Majority Nice245 votes out of 345=72%

A majority of member states approve

Any member state can ask for confirmation that the decision represents 62% of EUs total population

Nice: Votes and Population

Spain, PolandNice: the probability of making a decisionSpain, Poland

Lisbons PlanNice agreement viewed as too decentralizedSmall countries have more power to block bills they dont likeLisbons plan attempts to:Centralize power in hands of big 4Preserve democratic foundationsSimplify rulesLisbon: Qualified MajorityAt least 15 out of 27 countries vote yes

And

65% of population (314 millions votes) votes yes

EU 27 LisbonCountryVotesGermany 82,193 UK 59,832 France 59,521 Italy 57,844 Spain 39,490 Poland 38,649 Romania 22,443 Netherlands 15,983 Greece 10,565 Czech Rep 10,272 Belgium 10,262 Hungary 10,024 Portugal 10,023 CountryVotesSweden 8,883 Bulgaria 8,170 Austria 8,121 Slovakia 5,401 Denmark 5,349 Finland 5,181 Ireland 3,820 Lithuania 3,696 Latvia 2,417 Slovenia 1,989 Estonia 1,436 Cyprus 671 Luxembourg 441 Malta 390 Background research questionsIs Lisbons decision-making system fair?Does it have any democratic foundations?Is there any democratic deficit in the EU?Is this a relevant issue?How to address these questions?We focus on the Council of MinistersWe model legislative bargaining in the Council We call ''value'' (or power) the worth of playing that legislative bargainingWhat is Power?PrestigeAbility of tipping the final decision in the most preferred directionThe value of the votePolitical power results fromThe decisional rules set in the Constitution: (Super)-majority thresholdVoting weightsAnd Voters' preferences (i.e., their ideological profiles)How to measure power?In a completely agnostic perspectiveShapley-Shubik (1954): a voter's power is her chance to play a pivotal roleVoters are symmetric: preferences or ideologies are not consideredWhat happens if we consider ideological profiles?The legislators have to coordinate in order to make a common decisionThe idea that the median-voter is the most powerful one emergesthis results from the idea that only some orderings are possibleIt suggests that we must concentrate on how voters enter coalitions (i.e. in which order)basically: orderings in which ideologically similar players are close should be more likely (and vice versa)An example: simple majorityFive voters, no weights, leftrightABCDEC is the most powerful one only if:The proposal comes either from A The ordering is A,B,C,D,Eor from EThe ordering is E,D,C,B,AWhat happens if.. the proposal comes from C, or from D?. voting is weighted?. there is a super-majority threshold?. there is an agenda setter?. the political space is multidimensional?leftrightABCDETwo dimensional spaceTwo issues, x: government spending; y: defense policyhighaggressivemoderatelowCEBDAThe literature on ideological powerShapley, 1977Owen, 1972Owen and Shapley, 1989Rabinowitz and MacDonald, 1986Our PaperWe use the Owen-Shapley (1989) approach to generate ordering probabilitiesWe use Eurobarometer data to build up a political space We look at how an Agenda setter (the Commission) can impact on ordering probabilities, and affect powerWe compare the old system (Nice) with the Lisbon TreatyThree formulasProbabilistic value

Probability of a political coalition

Owen and Shapley

We add an Agenda setter that blows the political wind

EmpiricsResearch QuestionHow donumber of votes per country,majority threshold levels,preferences of countries,preferences of the agenda setter

affect power of countries within the Council of Ministers?

Data: Eurobarometer (EB)Public opinion of citizens of member states.Standard EB established in 1973. Each survey consists of 1000 face-to-face interviews per Member.Reports are published twice yearly. EurobarometerOur study: Avg. of 3 surveysWe use data collected on citizens opinions regarding who should have control over EU policies.25 questionsrange of inter-national and intra-national issuesData are aggregated in two dimensions using the Principal Component Analysis (an econometric technique)For each of the following areas, do you thing that decisions should be made by (NATIONALITY) government, or made jointly within the EU?IssueIssue1Defense13Information about the EU, its policies and institutions.2Protection of the environment14Foreign policy toward countries outside EU3Currency15Cultural policy4Humanitarian aid16Immigration policy5Health and social welfare17political asylum6Media18organized crime7Fight against poverty/social exclusion19police8Fight against unemployment20justice9Agriculture and fishing policy21accepting refugees10Support of regions experiencing economic difficulties22juvenile crime11Education23Urban crime12Scientific and technological research24Drugs25exploitation of human beings

EU 15 Preferences

EU 27: Preferences

EU 15 Pre-Nice: Measures of PowerCountryVotesS-S S-O Spatial Germany100.1170.142Portugal50.0550.141Spain80.0950.118France100.1170.114Austria40.0450.092Belgium50.0550.083Netherlands50.0550.076Ireland30.0350.059UK100.1170.048Sweden40.0450.047Greece50.0550.045Italy100.1170.025Finland30.0350.009Luxembourg20.0210.003Denmark30.0350.000EU 27 NiceEU 27 NiceCountryVotesS-S S-O Spatial Czech Rep120.0340.132France290.0870.101Germany290.0870.091Spain270.0800.089Greece120.0340.063Bulgaria100.0280.062Netherlands130.0370.054Lithuania70.0200.048Italy290.0870.048Poland270.0800.035Belgium120.0340.033Romania140.0400.030Portugal120.0340.024Slovakia70.0200.024EU 27 Nice continuedCountryVotesS-S S-O Spatial Hungary120.0340.023Ireland70.0200.021Latvia40.0110.021Denmark70.0200.020Sweden100.0280.017UK290.0870.016Cyprus40.0110.014Austria100.0280.011Finland70.0200.010Slovenia40.0110.006Luxembourg40.0110.004Malta30.0080.003Estonia40.0110.000EU 27 LisbonCountryVotesS-S S-O Spatial Austria 8,121 0.0200.017Belgium 10,262 0.0230.022Bulgaria 8,170 0.0200.065Cyprus 671 0.0080.012Czech Rep 10,272 0.0230.035Denmark 5,349 0.0160.030Estonia 1,436 0.0100.025Finland 5,181 0.0150.016France 59,521 0.1070.092Germany 82,193 0.1570.185Greece 10,565 0.0240.023Hungary 10,024 0.0220.006Ireland 3,820 0.0130.048Italy 57,844 0.1050.076EU 27 Lisbon contCountryVotesS-SNBI S-O Spatial Latvia 2,417 0.0110.0170.018Lithuania 3,696 0.0130.0190.035Luxembourg 441 0.0080.0150.000Malta 390 0.0090.0140.004Netherlands 15,983 0.0320.0330.033Poland 38,649 0.0710.0630.001Portugal 10,023 0.0230.0270.050Romania 22,443 0.0420.0420.049Slovakia 5,401 0.0160.0210.025Slovenia 1,989 0.0110.0160.009Spain 39,490 0.0730.0640.070Sweden 8,883 0.0210.0250.006UK 59,832 0.1080.0910.047The democratic deficit (%)SSI SSI-popS-OS-O-popPop NiceLis NiceLis NiceLis NiceLisFour big states60.534.849.1-25.7-11.425.638.5-34.9-22.0Franco-German axis33.017.427.3-15.6-5.719.231.3-13.8-1.712 Acceding members24.630.823.36.2-1.339.826.215.21.6Spain and Poland18.216.014.3-2.2-3.912.421.3-5.83.1Scandinavian+UK18.515.713.6-2.8-4.95.36.3-13.2-12.2Chart238.8441.293333333341.346666666744.866666666745.573333333348.373333333351.693333333352.026666666752.4453.5653.733333333355.386666666755.546666666756.3256.458.0458.466666666760.573333333362.266666666763.666666666764.146666666764.1665.173333333365.5665.7269.946666666771.24

Avg. % "Pro-EU" Responses for "EU27"

Sheet1Eurobarometerfa01fa02sp03fa01fa02sp03CountryCountryAvgIssueIssuecountryAvgcountrycountryCoutnryAvg.Austria48.2Austria46.92Austria41.6Fin38.841Defence13Information about the EU, its policies and institutions.Austria50.1328Austria49.2892Austria43.412Finland40.3326666667Belgium59.24Belgium56.72Belgium59.44UK41.29333333332Protection of the environment14Foreign policy toward countries outside EUBelgium61.2176Belgium59.4868Belgium61.3396Sweden42.3129333333Bulgaria51.96Bulgaria51.12Bulgaria54.24Swed41.34666666673Currency15Cultural policyDenmark45.0412Denmark45.9904Denmark47.67UK43.5774666667Cyprus68Cyprus71.08Cyprus74.64Den44.86666666674Humanitarian aid16Immigration policyFinland41.2124Finland39.668Finland40.1176Denmark46.2338666667CzechRepublic62.08CzechRepublic55.24CzechRepublic56.8Aus45.57333333335Health and social welfare17political asylumFrance57.97France58.502France55.1476Austria47.6113333333Denmark44.04Denmarl44.6Denmark45.96Malta48.37333333336Media18organized crimeGermany58.646Germany53.7976Germany56.3408Portugal55.1965333333Estonia56.72Estonia58.16Estonia54.08Ptgl51.69333333337Fight against poverty/social exclusion19policeGreece67.2816Greece66.7424Greece66.8764Ireland55.6198666667Finland39.8Finland38.4Finland38.32Ire52.02666666678Fight against unemployment20justiceIreland53.6952Ireland57.926Ireland55.2384Netherlands55.6836France56.12France57.24France53.28Bul52.449Agriculture and fishing policy21accepting refugeesItaly69.3852Italy66.8168Italy63.9808Germany56.2614666667Germany55.92German51.04Germany53.72Ger53.5610Support of regions experienccing economic difficulties22juvenile crimeLuxembourg57.5264Luxembourg57.6508Luxembourg56.9772France57.2065333333Greece65.88Greece65.56Greece65.24Neth53.733333333311Education23urbancrimeNetherlands57.1328Netherlands54.5656Netherlands55.3524Luxembourg57.3848Hungary58.48Hungary63.44Hungary59.8Lux55.386666666712Scientific and technological research24drugsPortugal47.3368Portugal59.2484Portugal59.0044Belgium60.6813333333Ireland50.08Ireland54.52Ireland51.48Fra55.546666666725exploitation of human beingsSpain66.1788Spain65.6996Spain63.0792Spain64.9858666667Italy66.52Italy64.44Italt61.52Esto56.32Sweden44.0176Sweden39.5296Sweden43.3916Italy66.7276Latvia63.6Latvia66Latvia62.84Lith56.4UK45.5612UK41.1504UK44.0208Greece66.9668Lithuania55.32Lithuania53.92Lithuania59.96Czw58.04Luxem55.16Luxem56.16Luxem54.84Bel58.4666666667Malta46.64Malta47.64Malta50.84Hun60.5733333333Netherland54.76Netherl52.92Nether53.52Spa62.2666666667Poland62.44Poland61.84Poland66.72Pol63.6666666667Portugal44.56Port55.08port55.44Lat64.1466666667Romania66.08Romania65.2Romania65.88Ita64.16Slovakia62.2Slovakia65.64Slovakia67.68Slova65.1733333333Slovenia65.44Slovenia72.8Slovenia71.6Gre65.56Spain62.92Spain63.6Spain60.28Rom65.72Sweden43.12Sweden38.72Sweden42.2Slove69.9466666667UK43.36UK39.04UK41.48Cyp71.24country

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Avg. % "Pro-EU" Responses for "EU15"Percent

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Avg. % "Pro-EU" Responses for "EU27"

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