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Whither California?
Russell Hancock4 November 2009
DisneylandOpening Day 1955
California’s Population Growth1900-2010
Today 2009
Projected 2040
Asian 4.1 million 10 million
Hispanic 10 million 28 million
White 17 million 20 million
California’s Population GrowthProjected
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American
California by Ethnicity 1990
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American
California by Ethnicity 2010
Source: Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network and Public Policy Institute of California
California by Ethnicity, 2000
United States by Ethnicity, 2000
Source: United States Census Bureau
WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American
California by Ethnicity 2040 projected
Source: Public Policy Institute of California
One Example:
California Prisons
From 1970-2000 the crime rate rose higher than the rate of population.
Today California has 115,000 convicts.
After a $3.4 billion construction spree, the prisons are more crowded than before.
Another example:
Transportation Infrastructure
1975 1995
Miles of highway 15,138 18,202
Vehicle miles traveled 72 billion 150 billion
Transportation in California
Demand vs. Capacity
Source: Public Policy Institute of California, Caltrans
Third example:
California’s Schools
California’s Per-pupil Spending relative to National Average, 1969-2000
Fourth example:
Water
Massive Population GrowthBurgeoning Demand Undisciplined Spending
Shrinking EconomyFiscal ConservatismNeopopulist Constraints
Question we must ask:
Does California have good institutions in place to provide thoughtful solutions and statesmanlike leadership?
No. We’re plagued by dysfunction.
Dysfunction in Sacramento.
Dysfunction in California’s regions.
Dysfunction in the electorate.
Dysfunction in Sacramento
California State AssemblySummer 2009
Dysfunction in our regions.
Dysfunction in the electorate
Problem: Ideological Divide, Gridlock
Solution:
Re-districtingOpen Primaries
Problem:
Budgetary Gridlock
Solution:
Relax super-majority requirement
Problem:
Term Limits
Solution:
16 years total, any house
Problem:
Budgetary Woes
Possible Solution:
Spending matches revenuesPay-as-you-go fundingInitiatives must specify sourcePeg tax to stable sourcesSpikes go into reserveMandatory set-asidesNew model for business activity
Problem:
Fractured State-Local Relationship
Possible Solution:Restore rule of separationProp 13 funds allocated locally
Problem:
Proliferation of Initiatives
Possible Solution:
Higher threshold for qualificationMust specify revenue source
Problem:
Questionable Effectiveness of Government programs
Possible Solution:
Performance-based budgeting
What’s the fastest way to achieve reforms such as these?
A Constitutional Convention?
The California Constitution
• 140 years old• 75,000 words• Amended 500 times
The United States Constitution• 220 years old• 4,500 words• Amended 17 times
Why such a dramatic step?
Incrementalism doesn’t respect the crisis we are in.
“Single-subject” rule doesn’t allow full slates to come before voters.
“Revisions” can only be authorized by the Legislature or through a convention.
How do you convene a constitutional convention?
Proposition One
Provides California voters the right to convene a convention.
Proposition Two
Calls for a constitutional convention in 2011.
How would the delegates be selected?
Three possibilities:
ElectionAppointmentRandom selection
How do you prevent a runaway convention?
Ballot will specify a “limited” convention:
• Budget reform• Election reform• State-local fiscal relationship reforms• Government oversight mechanisms
Moderating forces on the convention:
Delegates not beholden to interest groups
Highly public deliberations
Outcome will be placed back on the ballot for approval
Who supports the convention approach?Governor Arnold SchwarzeneggerDan Walters, Sacramento BeeDan Weintraub, Sacramento BeeNumerous legislatorsVelasquez InstituteSan Jose Mercury NewsThe EconomistNew York TimesSan Diego Union-TribuneSan Francisco ChronicleLos Angeles TimesContra Costa TimesSan Francisco Business TimesSilicon Valley/San Jose Business JournalFresno BeeNew American Foundation
Bay Area CouncilJoint Venture: Silicon Valley NetworkCommon CauseCourage CampaignThe GuardianThe Times StandardIrish TimesVentura County StarSanta Maria TimesThe Bond BuyerPeter SchragChico Enterprise-RecordSacramento BeeLa OpinionCalBuzzFresno BeeForbes
(partial list)
What do voters think?
Poll of 1000 registered California voters, conducted by EMC Research, September 8-13, 2009.
69% support Proposition 171% support Proposition 2
14% “state on right track”77% “state on wrong track”
73% of voters age 18-35 support71% of voters age 65- support70% low-propensity voters support80% Latinos support70% Republicans support71% Democrats support
63% support if held today, no additional information
How do I find out more?
www.repaircalifornia.org
Some men look at constitutions with sanctimonious reverence and deem
them like the ark of the covenant, too sacred to be touched. But
governments are always in their stock of information a century or two
behind the intelligent part of mankind, and have interests against
touching old institutions.
Can one generation bind another and all others forever? I think not.
We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him
when a boy. The Creator has made the earth for the living, not the dead.
Each generation has the right to choose for itself the form of
government it believes most promotive of its own happiness, to
accommodate to the circumstances in which it finds itself.
Thomas Jefferson
