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The Pieces
FIRE Dynamics Weather/Climate Conditions• Wind• Relative Humidity• Temperatures• Duration• Vertical Profiles/Soundings
The Pieces
FIRE Dynamics Weather/Climate Conditions• SPC takes Fire Dynamics and
applies weather/climate conditions.– Dry thunderstorms and
lighting a great concern
• USFS has a point tool based on the NDFD and produces 7-day forecasts based on that information.
• USFS (www.wfas.net)– Fuel Type– Fuel Conditions– Lightning efficiency– Haines (1988) index
• Vegetation Health (Greenness and Temperature)information from AVHRR/GOES-R
Where We May Contribute (2)
Model Fields/ Synthetic Imagery
• Where/When convection occurs in the model
• Wind, Temperature, RH forecasts
• Conditional forecast products– Dry thunderstorm potential– Lightning– Down draft– Fire laydown/takeoff timing
Satellite/lightning
• Early detection– Lightning strikes– Hot spots– smoke
• Resource Deployment– Manpower
deployment/management– Aircraft planning
• Evacuations
ProposalCreation of a Comprehensive Colorado Wildfire Outlook• Combine
– Fuel type– Fuel vegetation health conditions (GOES-R/AVHRR)
• Greenness• Hotness
– Lightning ignition potential– Meteorological conditions (Model)
• Wind• RH• Stability
– Lightning Occurrence/Convective Forecasts• Produce
– Weekly resource guidance (reduced allocation, normal allocation, increased allocation) • where to put resources in the coming week
– 0-48 hour outlook for new wildfire starts (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) – New wildfire nowcast (unlikely, possible, likely, very likely) – places to monitor for new starts– Fire growth danger – if a fire develops how rapidly could it grow