Exit, Voice or Accommodation?

White Flight and White Nationalism in the UKIs there a Connection?

Eric KaufmannBirkbeck Collegee.kaufmann@bbk.ac.ukhttp://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass

1Community and Closure'The distinctiveness of cultures and groups depends upon closure and without it cannot be conceived as a stable feature of human life. If this distinctiveness is a value as most peopleseem to believe then closure must be permitted somewhere.' Michael Walzer Spheres of Justice (1983)

2Closure White Flight or Avoidance (Closure 1) White opposition to immigration and/or Far Right voting (Closure 2)How are closure 1 and closure 2 related?3ONS Longitudinal StudyThe permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: RES-348-25-0004). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data.

Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

4White Flight?

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USA 1970-2000Source: data from Card Mas & Rothstein 2008Source: Andersson Hammarstedt Neuman 2012

7White Flight in England?

A number of leading geographers (Catney and Simpson 2010; Finney and Simpson 2007; Simon 2009) suggest that both whites and minorities leave dense poor areas for leafier more attractive places

But even they do not deny that ethnic preference plays some role

Flight v Avoidance8Simpson (2007) MethodWards% WhiteQuintile 1755498Quintile 272687Quintile 328873Quintile 418057Quintile 510234Total885091Toward diversityAway from diversity9Predictors of Quintile Shift 1991-2001 (excluding area controls for ethnicity density poverty)Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study. 10Moved Out of Ward in 2000-2001:WardsWh BritishMinoritiesWH OtherWhite Irish98% White75541.1%4.7%3.2%1.5%87% White7265.4%6.4%7.7%4.1%73% White2886.8%6.0%8.1%5.6%57% White1807.0%4.6%7.8%3.8%33% White1026.1%2.9%13.1%3.2%Total8850Source: Office for National Statistics. 2001. ONS Longitudinal Study. 11Want to Move?: White Minority Area (Quintiles 4 & 5)AllNonwhiteWhiteWhite WorkingN.W. Working47.3%45.5%49.5%59.7%38.2%N37728051840466222Want to Move?: 98% White Area (Quintile 1)AllNonwhiteWhiteWhite WorkingN.W. Working32.4%46.4%32.4%37.7%50%N67151491496701345814412White MoversWards% WhiteQuintile 1755498Quintile 272687Quintile 328873Quintile 418057Quintile 510234Total885091Diversity Seekers

24% Tory 18% Working Class27% Degrees 57% English Identity 46% Tabloid 44% 17-25s 50% renters 49% single 10% anti-homosexual 9% gender traditionalistsWhite Flight/Avoiders

24% Tory 18% Working Class30% Degrees 57% English Identity 56% Tabloid 32% 17-25s 26% renters 35% single 12% anti-homosexual 12% gender traditionalists13Networks rather than Nationalism?If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication systemcorrelated with color Thomas Schelling 1978Maybe white family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to moveOR could be subliminal ethnic avoidance distinct from conscious ideologyEnd result is the same, however: white British withdrawal from growing urban zones14Moved to less diverseMoved to more diverseStayerMoverworking class17.517.829.426.2Con24.224.228.825.2Labour41384038Liberal16.217.613.914.4degree & above3026.710.918English identifier57.256.555.756.7redtop55.8466763.4broadsheet39.446.826.931.917-2532.444.28.429.3rented26.349.85.329.5total children25.616.928.731.6Homosexuality Wrong11.810.421.513.8Husband Should Earn11.98.652.864.7British Citizenship Best74.865.4Religious3631.24733.415Whites in Diverse Wards are Less Opposed to Immigration

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Whites Favouring Reduced Immigration, by social class

By Share of Ethnic Minorities in WardBy Share of Recent Immigrants (less than 10 years in UK) in Ward17Two Aspects of Whites Who Live in Diverse AreasNon-British WhitesTransient Population18Mobility?: Stayers Differ From MoversSwedish research shows that whites leaving diverse areas (Hedman et. al 2012) are somewhat less likely to be hostile to immigrants than whites who remainOur work with BHPS corroborates this: movers are more tolerant on family values and morality whilst stayers tend to be more nationalistic and defensive of Britains standing in the world. 19

% Minorities Softens Views on ImmigrationSource: Home Office Citizenship Surveys 2006-1120Adding Mobility & Contextuals

21Focusing on Working Class

22Counterargument to Contact Theory? May be that those who are mobile (i.e. leaving or entering a diverse area) are more individualisticTransience=diversity; transience=tolerant whites ergo diversity=tolerant whites? (ie contact with minorities not the reason for tolerance)We await release of 2011 mobility data

23ConclusionLocal matters for the nationalLittle white flight but more white avoidanceAnti-immigration opinion not linked to white avoidanceBut white working class are more likely than white upper/middle to avoid diversity, oppose immigration & remain unaffected by contactSome support for benefits of contact with minorities but much of the positive effect of diversity is due to other aspects of diverse areas (transient, urban, white other). Also no effect on white working classWhite attitudes to immigration may be softened by contact; or may be hardened as whites consolidate, or if there is new immigration in lily-white areas

24Future ResearchFocus Group Work required to tease out meanings that white working class people hold4 focus groups 2 in white minority areas 2 in adjacent mainly white areas. 2 in London 2 in North or Midlands2011 data updates (ONS LS Census)25